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BlackBerry CEO predicts tablet market will diminish within five years

post #1 of 100
Thread Starter 
The CEO of the seemingly reinvigorated BlackBerry doesn't have much faith in the long-term potential of the tablet sector, saying in an interview that in five years there might be no reason to have a tablet at all.



BlackBerry chief Thorsten Heins said in an interview on Monday that the tablet market may not exist as it does now in five years, Bloomberg reported. Heins' comments cast doubt on the possibility of BlackBerry launching a follow-up to its ill-fated PlayBook tablet, even though such a move has been expected by many observers.

"In five years I don't think there'll be a reason to have a tablet anymore," Heins said. ""Maybe a big screen in your workspace, but not a tablet as such. Tablets themselves are not a good business model."

Heins' reference to "a big screen in your workspace" could indicate the direction in which the company plans to move with its devices. Prior to the release of BlackBerry's Z10 and Q10, the company was rumored to be working on a mode for the handsets that would allow them to connect to a display and essentially work as a computer with external inputs. Such functionality did not emerge at the launch of BlackBerry 10, but the firm may still be developing it.

Monday's comments aren't Heins' first words on tablets. The BlackBerry exec said in March that his company would not reenter the tablet market unless it had a gamechanger.

"I think the profit pool is very, very thin," Heins said to the Australian Financial Review. "Kudos to Apple, I think they really managed to own that space, so it doesn't make sense for me to just take this head on. I need to figure out, for my enterprise customers, for my consumers, for my BB10 audience, what can I do that provides them a mobile computing experience in the form factor of a tablet, which goes beyond just the puristic tablet experience."

Heins' nod to Apple underscores the Cupertino company's dominance in tablet computing, a segment Apple reinvented with its iPad. Apple CEO Tim Cook regards the segment as "the mother of all markets," and indicative of the "Post-PC era" proclaimed by late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs.

BlackBerry's previous foray into the tablet sector, the PlayBook, proved a disaster for the company. The small form factor tablet never took off, and the company was forced to write down roughly half a billion dollars in unsold inventory.

The launch of BlackBerry 10, though, appears to have slightly altered the company's fortunes. Sales of the all-touchscreen Z10 are as yet unknown, but the firm expects its hardware QWERTY keyboard-enabled Q10 ? highly anticipated among BlackBerry devotees ? to sell very well. Encouraging initial indications from both models ? along with shrinking quarterly losses ? have pushed BlackBerry shares higher.
post #2 of 100
I think the should have said Blackberry tablets won't be around in 5 years and that Blackberry tablets are not a good business model. Why? Because Blackberry tablets are a failure.
post #3 of 100

It's always dangerous to make any kind of tech projection, especially five years out. But ... I really don't see tablets going the way of netbooks any time soon. Thinner, faster, more capable, sure; gone? Hmmm... no.

post #4 of 100

Blackberry isn't known for having keen insights lately. I wonder if they also predict a sudden demand for BlackBerry Bold. :)

post #5 of 100
"We don't know how to make a tablet so we will simply wish them away."

Did I get that right?
post #6 of 100
Quote:
BlackBerry CEO predicts tablet market will diminish within five years

Blackberry's first tablet attempt was a dud... even though the tablet market flourished around it and is still growing. Notice all the other tablets that are still on the market today.

But now the tablet market has no future?
post #7 of 100

The professionals will leave this market to amateurs ?

post #8 of 100
This I don't know but at least I can say that u will not be around after 5 yrs in BlackBerry to validate ur stmt....
post #9 of 100

"I need to figure out, for my enterprise customers, for my consumers, for my BB10 audience, what can I do that provides them a mobile computing experience in the form factor of a tablet, which goes beyond just the puristic tablet experience."

 

Uh, what?

post #10 of 100
While I respect BB, this is some crazy statement. If recent PC and Tablet sales tell us anything for the future, tablets are the way to go.

Sure their interface can be ported to big screens or surfaces, but they'll keep on eating the PC sales in the forthcoming future. Maybe tablet sales will go down because of the rise of wearable electronics.
post #11 of 100
The big screen in my workspace (which I have), doesn't do me much good in Starbucks, on the plane/train, or on my sofa, in a meeting, at a conference or in the hotel. My iPad does, though. Tablets will evolve, sure, but won't disappear for a while.
post #12 of 100

“In five years, I see BlackBerry to be the absolute leader in mobile computing -- that’s what we’re aiming for,” Heins said. “I want to gain as much market share as I can, but not by being a copycat.”lol.gif

 

This guy is insane. I think that he should be put in a straight jacket and thrown into a padded room.

 

Blackberry knows nothing about tablets. They are the company behind the hugely catastrophic Playbook after all. "Playtime is over" turned out to be a true phrase, just not in the way that RIM expected.

 

What success is Blackberry currently having? Making obsolete phones with a hardware keyboard on it, for a small, niche market of dinosaur people out there, who lack the dexterity to type on a touch screen?

 

Certain CEO's should become comedians, because they'd be better at that job than at their current one.

 

post #13 of 100

Thanks. BB is not coming up with any other tablets. Already we have million models of Samsung out there!

post #14 of 100
Not thanks for that advice. Geeesh! This guy...Lol
post #15 of 100
I thought BBY got rid of their dumb CEOs.
post #16 of 100
Blackberry CEO's don't exactly have a reliable track record of predicting the future.
post #17 of 100
I think all the previous comments are on the right track. The Playbook was a failure, so Heins is going to bury his head in the sand, and believe the market is going away. The only thing that is going away is the Playbook. Tablets, iPads, are here and will continue to get better.
post #18 of 100
I could see the tablet market replacing the desktop in a few years as they get more powerful and more storage capacity. Eventually you'll have your iPad and just plug in the monitor and keyboard.
post #19 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post

Blackberry CEO's don't exactly have a reliable track record of predicting the future.

Not completely fair or accurate. But, without question, this is a stupid thing for Heins to say.

post #20 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by CRHain88 View Post

Blackberry isn't known for having keen insights lately. I wonder if they also predict a sudden demand for BlackBerry Bold. 1smile.gif

I don't know if they've had a decent product insight for most of a decade. Most of their responses to a changing market were a bandaid when they needed a tourniquet. They've done tablets, but they screwed themselves for waiting too long to open the tablet up to non-Blackberry customers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

"We don't know how to make a tablet so we will simply wish them away."

Did I get that right?

It would seem so. Tablets seem to be here to stay for a while, at least. They didn't fizzle like the netbooks did.
post #21 of 100
People are twisting his words out of context to make him sound clueless. He's not talking about ALL tablets going away. He's talking very specifically about tablet-style computing devices, such as the iPad and Kindle. He's NOT saying we won't have medicines taken as oral tablets, NOR is he saying we won't have tablets of paper used for arts and crafts.
post #22 of 100
I give him some credit. He doesn't want to just copy competitor's products or produce dozens of models at every size and price pooint or even sell a dozen products under the same name so that BlackBerry can appear to dominate the market.

I think BlackBerry is really pushing their effort, the only issue is that BlackBerry held onto the past too long [still holding onto the past a bit now even, in my opinion].

Of all the current smartphone vendors, I most desire Apple, BlackBerry, HTC and Nokia to succeed. The attention to detail and consideration of design is apparent in their products. Of these vendors, only Apple and BlackBerry own their destiny by way of developing their own operating system (for their premium products).
Edited by MacBook Pro - 4/30/13 at 10:08am
post #23 of 100
It's all going to be one device. The same gizmo is an Xbox, a PC, a phone, a flashlight, compass, cable box, etc. You can interface it through the wall or your wrist lol.

Didn't blackberry make the tablet that wouldn't work unless you already had a Blakberry phone? And if the phone ran out of battery you couldn't check your email on the tablet?
post #24 of 100
So they jumped from the hubris statement of "Amateur hour is over" to a statement of denial that tablets will go away. Could those grapes be any more sour?

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post #25 of 100

My guess is that within five years BB will have launched more than one tablet if their phones attract the kind of marketshare they are predicting.

 

Unless he is right and the iPad really does turn out to be nothing but a toy which a number of AI posters proclaimed ad nauseam 3 years ago. ;/

post #26 of 100
I think BB is smart to stay out of the tablet market. Apple indeed "owns the space" so BB should focus on regaining some space in the mobile sector vs Android.

Also, why is it that CEOs from every other company have many interviews each year and Tim Cook has like 1? And you have to pay $1/2 million to talk to him lol
post #27 of 100

W H A T  T H E  F ^ C K 

post #28 of 100

RIM's old CEO (half of it, anyway) said the iPhone would fail.

 

They sure know how to hire 'em!

 


Edited by Tallest Skil - 4/30/13 at 10:20am
post #29 of 100
I predict his salary will diminish...
post #30 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

My guess is that within five years BB will have launched more than one tablet if their phones attract the kind of marketshare they are predicting.

Unless he is right and the iPad really does turn out to be nothing but a toy which a number of AI posters proclaimed ad nauseam 3 years ago. ;/

Don't many continue to proclaim that the iPad is a toy?
post #31 of 100
If anybody out there actually still owns BB stock, sell. CEO doesn't have a clue.
post #32 of 100

come on folks - give the guy a break here - FUD has to start somewhere, right? and not only that but it will provide awesome quotes in a couple years anytime anyone sees the smallest blip in sales or growth or profitability for any given tablet style device. 

post #33 of 100

Thorsten Heins:

Quote:
“In five years, I see BlackBerry to be the absolute leader in mobile computing -- that’s what we’re aiming for,” Heins said. “I want to gain as much market share as I can, but not by being a copycat.”

 

Eric Schmidt:

 

 

Quote:
by the summer of 2012 .... the majority of the televisions that you see in the television stores here will have Google TV embedded in it

 

[I've been TV shopping for the past month, have browsed hundreds of TVs, and literally did not see a single Google TV in any store, anywhere. Not one.]

 

Steve Ballmer: (re: iPhone)

 

 

Quote:
But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.

 

 

These buffoons need to form a club, I suggest the name of "How to be epically wrong about everything". 

post #34 of 100

Sorry guys, But I totally (and I mean it seriously) can see his point.

 

Give someone a galaxy note 2 with LTE and that person will never use a tablet again. Only the phone and a computer when something needs to be done.

Now imagine a phone like the note but done right.

 

The screen provides a great browsing experience, it's lighter and more portable, has the firepower of a regular tablet, makes calls and has the conveniences of a phone. That's a fact, most people use tablets for things that can easily be done (in some cases it is even better) on a 5" phone.

 

We still do not have a flagship (great) 5" phone, But Apple can do that. Just imagine that.

 

Please Apple, it would fit perfectly on the usage of million and millions of people and for the others you have a 4" screen and an iPad.

post #35 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by CRHain88 View Post

Blackberry isn't known for having keen insights lately. I wonder if they also predict a sudden demand for BlackBerry Bold. :)

 

They are predicting 10's of Millions of the Q10 being sold.

 

I don't know who's kool aid he has been drinking but I think he may have an advisor that is one of the original Merry Pranksters. Wherever his idea comes from I wouldn't use it for investment guidance (doesn't pass the acid test).

post #36 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

Give someone a galaxy note 2 with LTE and that person will never use a tablet again.

Give a person a tablet and they will never use a tablet again?  How does that make sense?

post #37 of 100
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

…a flagship (great) 5" phone… Just imagine that.

 

Why ask people to imagine crap? 

post #38 of 100

Dude may be right and wrong.

 

In 5 years we will have phones with flex screens that can fold out to be 9 inch screens and fold back into a 4inch phone screen.

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post #39 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Why ask people to imagine crap? 

Imagine crap? What the hell are you talking about?

 

The galaxy note loses to the iPhone on every single metric and still is better for playing games, internet, reading, watching videos, etc just because it is a decent 5" phone, even if too expensive for what it is.

 

Put a 5" on an iPhone, change the design so it isn't the same thing just proportionally bigger, make apps for it, give it the right things and you have the better product ever created on the history of electronics.

 

Don't be a fool and do not be ignorant.

post #40 of 100
If his thought is that the phone will hook to a monitor on your desktop and you won't need a 'real' PC... maybe. But the tablet form factor with a larger screen while not sitting at your desk or looking at a TV - well, it's an entirely different thing. Now maybe there will be a slot for sliding your phone into the tablet or into the desktop monitor - and there are probably enough people that could work with the power available from that, particularly in 5 years.

So I dunno, maybe the stand-alone tablet at some point becomes another screen that you can plug your 'PC' into, either including the phone, or maybe it plugs into the phone form factor at some point too. The tablet or desktop could then have extra GPU hardware if needed, extra battery or external power, etc., and your computing goes with you however you want.

Then again, that's sort of what a working 'cloud' solution is supposed to enable, though I don't think iCloud (or any other) is that solution yet.

Now will BB be the one to take the world to whatever the tablet-less future is? Uh... Not betting on that.
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