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Big phones, phablets & tablets account for just 10% of Android's installed base - Page 3

post #81 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Apparently Steve Jobs did claim they don't do market research. To be fair it's never been easy to tell which Apple statements are true and which are marketing-speak.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0803/gallery.jobsqna.fortune/3.html

....but they reportedly do put together what are essentially "focus groups".
http://appleinsider.com/articles/11/05/05/apple_initiates_customer_pulse_market_research_focus_group.html

By the way there's an interesting read here on "Why you can't innovate like Apple". One of the points it makes is Apple does "leak" potential products/features on occasion to gage consumer interest prior to committing to them. 
http://www.pragmaticmarketing.com/resources/You-Cant-Innovate-Like-Apple

I guess my idea of a"focus group" is to assemble a group of people in one area and then show them an unreleased product and get feedback. Apple doesn't do that. What they do is send surveys out for released products and obtain feedback.
post #82 of 92
Quote:
Perhaps, but how much more market share would Apple realistically capture?

Or better put, how much market share would they avoid losing? I'm an iPhone user that's contemplating moving to Android for a bigger phone. It's not that iOS is really that much better than Android these days, and even though Apple gives us updates, older phones generally don't get new features, so the lack of updates on Android debate is moot. I'll give it until the next iPhone is released to make my decision.
post #83 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by ruel24 View Post

I'm an iPhone user that's contemplating moving to Android for a bigger phone.

 

Me too, but I doubt I'll actually do it. Instead I'll probably just keep using my old iPhone 4 until somebody makes something exciting enough to pry open my wallet.

 

The reason I probably won't switch to Android is the same as why I won't buy an iPhone 5. I don't want to spend hundreds of dollars on something that isn't what I want. I don't really want an iP5 because it doesn't offer much improvement in the only area that I find the iP4 deficient (web browsing) and I don't really want a Samsung because, while I have no doubt that Android is probably just fine and even offers some features I like, I still prefer iOS just for the ease of making devices play nice together. Apple's integration isn't perfect by any stretch (Messages anyone?) but I'd still rather troubleshoot a purpose-built ecosystem than try to build an ad hoc one of my own.

 

The LTE capability of iPhone 5 would be nice, but there isn't a lot of benefit to more quickly accessing data I can't see! In portrait orientation there's no advantage over the 4. Rotating it to landscape yields a larger reading area, but with the keyboard visible it only leaves room for a couple lines of text. That's what makes those 5"-ish 4:3 screens from other brands so enticing.

post #84 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by v5v View Post

That's what makes those 5"-ish 4:3 screens from other brands so enticing.

I think having a single line typing method would work better for that. Someone posted about the Minuum keyboard a while ago:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-57575214-1/could-minuum-finally-evolve-the-virtual-qwerty-keyboard/

There aren't many Android phones using the 4:3 aspect. One of them is the LG Optimus G:



That's 5" 1080p. You can see at 1:42, you don't get much more of the web page on screen, it's just zoomed up a bit. Then at 4:35, the texting area isn't much bigger either. The phone pad at 7:17 looks a bit odd.

In terms of landscape typing, the whole pad has to be scaled up so it doesn't really offer much more space:



If they scaled the iPhone 5 screen up to 5" without a redesign, it would end up larger than the S4:



If it was the same height as the S4, it would be a 4.3" screen, which isn't much different from what they have but it's within the Retina limit that it wouldn't require a resolution change.

In terms of sales volume, we know that about 45% of Android devices are on 2.3.x, which means they have to be smaller models - that's about 320m. Apple has sold about 300m iPhones. So that leaves about 430m Android phones, which may or may not be larger than 4". Given the lower profits of Android manufacturers, it's safe to assume that handsets on newer versions of Android would be cheaper (and smaller) models, not the premium models. It's likely at least half are lower end devices, probably much more. That's means over 835m are on 4" or less and 215m on 4" or more. Some of the latter is also the 5"+ category. Less than 20% of all smartphone owners have a larger than 4" display and a portion of those will be on the 4-4.3" sizes, which aren't vastly different to the iPhone 5.

New buyers might trend towards the larger models, some polls would suggest that. It would require Apple to redesign the iPhone entirely though. They'd have to double their resolution, which would affect battery life. They wouldn't gain any extra space as they'd be keeping the same aspect so they'd just scale everything up. They couldn't have just one model so the larger one would be more expensive (it would have to be as it's double the resolution).

I imagine this topic of size will keep coming up every now and again as long as some people don't get what they want but I don't see how Apple can address this easily. The home button is one of the iPhone's most important features and it will always put limitations on what they can do until they come up with a replacement. If they are going to use a fingerprint sensor, that might become a further limitation depending on where they put it.
post #85 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Juil View Post

Thank you!

This always bugs me...

Unit market share = 1 metric
Revenue share = 1 metric (and by deduction, revenue per unit)
Profit pool share = 1 metric (and by deduction, profit percentage)
Installed base = 1 metric
Customer satisfaction/loyalty = 1 metric
Real world device usage = 1 metric
Brand recognition/value = 1 metric
Marketing strategy, alliances and deals = 1 metric
and so on...

If these other guys are doing so well, why the hell are we only hearing about "unit market share". I mean, they should be bragging about these other metrics if they were so much on top of things. So that makes me come to the conclusion that they don’t really have anything to brag about except units shipped/unit market share.

Agreed.

I've said this before and I'll say it again:

Android market share makes for a fancy headline... but there is no compelling story after that.
post #86 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

There aren't many Android phones using the 4:3 aspect.

 

My bad. I haven't really looked into what's available on Android. Lemme rephrase my comment then: I would like a larger, wider screen with an aspect ratio that's less rectangular and more square than the current iPhone, perhaps 4:3. Whether or not anyone else does that, I find that form appealing.

 

 


Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

In terms of sales volume

 

I'm going to interrupt right there. With respect to those who try to deduce the number of large-screen phones in the wild from wildly inconsistent and imprecise data, and then try to extrapolate the potential for sales of a larger iPhone form them, I don't know if I accept the premise.

 

If you looked at the sales figures of tablets NOT including the iPad, you might conclude that tablets sell poorly and there's no reason for Apple to make one. Yet Apple's version of the tablet sells in the millions. The number of personal music players sold, not including Apple's, is lower than the population of Antarctica, but Apple's foray into that market has been rather more successful.

 

Just because others haven't had much success with a certain product category doesn't mean Apple won't. I'm not likely to buy a bigscreen Samsung phone, but I would buy a big iPhone.

post #87 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

In terms of sales volume, we know that about 45% of Android devices are on 2.3.x, which means they have to be smaller models - that's about 320m. 

 

Sorry, sir, but that's an incorrect premise.  There were, and still are, plenty of 2.3 Gingerbread devices with 4" to 7" screens.  

 

For example, the original Galaxy S phone.  And even today, Huawei sells large screen phones with 2.3.

 

Heck, I have an HTC Flyer tablet that I keep on 2.3 instead of upgrading, simply because I don't want to lose the use of some of the screen to soft buttons.  I like the separate buttons it came with.

 

Most importantly, as already pointed out, we cannot use the Android Dashboard to determine sales.  If we only use its data, 60% hitting the Market are big screened phones, and nobody believes that reflects actual sales as well.

 

Quote:
Apple has sold about 300m iPhones.

 

Samsung started selling its Galaxy S line in May 2010.  From then until the beginning of this year...

 

  • Apple sold 260 million iPhones.
  • Samsung sold over 300 million smartphones, about 40% of which had large screens:
  • ....100 million Galaxy S1/2/3 phones with 4"-4.8" screens.
  • ....20 million Galaxy Note phones with 5+" screens.

 

That's a lot of big screened phones, and a good percentage of higher end sales.

 

It's difficult to believe that Apple will not also enter into the high profit margin large screen phone market, since they were willing to go into the lower profit margin book sized tablet market last year.


Edited by KDarling - 5/5/13 at 4:24pm
post #88 of 92
I bought an iPad w/retina display and I have to say it's really painful switching back to using the seemingly tiny screen on my iPhone 4S. It really reminds me of that jab Jobs made about 7" tablet users having to file their fingers; that's how i feel trying to press the tiny iphone buttons now! Despite the size I'd consider ditching the iPhone completely if the iPad could make phone calls.
post #89 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling View Post

There were, and still are, plenty of 2.3 Gingerbread devices with 4" to 7" screens.

Android tablet sales back then are pretty much negligible in the numbers though. Any tablet sales worth counting are recent ones and they shouldn't be deducted from the 2.3.x figures but rather the 3.x+ unless you're saying that Android manufacturers are shipping new devices with a very old OS in large numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling View Post

For example, the original Galaxy S phone.

The original Galaxy S was 4".
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling View Post

Samsung sold over 300 million smartphones, about 40% of which had large screens

That matches up with the figures I used. Samsung has 50% of the Android market so if they shipped 120m large phones, you can assume that other Android manufacturers shipped large phones in the same ratio best-case so 240m. I said 215m but you'd be subtracting the Galaxy S anyway. The reason that I reckon it's lower than this though is that we know Apple and Samsung account for the bulk of the revenue and profit so other Android manufacturers can't be selling in the same ratio on the premium end as Samsung or the revenue split would be more even.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling View Post

It's difficult to believe that Apple will not also enter into the high profit margin large screen phone market, since they were willing to go into the lower profit margin book sized tablet market last year.

It's not inherently high profit margin. Apple takes far more profit than Samsung (over 2x) despite Samsung shipping more phones:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57567891-94/apple-samsung-gobble-all-2012-handset-profits-and-then-some/

I know the iPad Mini is going to get used to justify any future possibility e.g 'you never know if they'll make a watch, they made an iPad mini' but it only works for the same market tactic, which would be a cheaper iPhone. A larger, more expensive iPhone isn't the same thing at all. It's more like the 17" Macbook Pro. Nothing else better except that it has a bigger screen and costs more money. No other phone manufacturer does this. If the Galaxy S4 flagship model was 4.3", it would sell the same as if it was 5" because it would have the same marketing machine behind it.
post #90 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

You can't really look to large Android phone sales as a predictor to how a large iPhone would sell

That's what people have been doing though:

"Most of the top selling Android phone are 4.5 and larger like the 4.8" Samsung, Don't get me wrong, I am all for a larger screen on the iPhone and if I have to settle for only a slightly larger 4" screen then I guess I will."

http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/150111/4-screens-for-apples-next-iphone-will-be-built-as-soon-as-june#post_2111031

One of the primary reasons people have given is that they observe lots of people with large Android phones:

"I rarely see iPhone's anymore like I used to but see large Android phones all over the place. I remember at Halloween waiting in a very long line at a haunted house being the only person with an iPhone while I observed dozens and dozens of Android phones with large displays. Even all the young kids and teenagers had one and some of these kids were very small, like under 5' tall with tiny hands but they sure didn't seem to have any trouble using them or putting them in their pockets. But even at clubs or expensive restaurants with all adults seeing an iPhone is becoming a bit more rare for me recently. All anecdotal for sure but when many other people all across the country are saying the same thing...."

http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/155309/ces-2013-expected-to-showcase-embarrassingly-large-smartphones/160#post_2255034

It usually goes like this:
step 1: assume that because you want a *insert product Apple doesn't or no longer offers*, everyone else does too
step 2: tell stories about how many people you know have one or want one and how important or large that group of people is
step 3: when sales figures don't backup widespread demand, the figures aren't important and Apple should still make the product because you still want one
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

you have no idea how many current iPhone owners would jump at the chance to own one

The same applies in reverse though. You have no idea how few people would buy one when a 4" flagship model would be available that costs less. Trying every possible variation under the sun to see what sticks is Samsung's tactic. It's not an efficient way to do it because you can't possibly apply the same marketing to every model equally. Samsung is pushing consumers towards larger displays because they market their flagship models more.

If Apple came out with a 4.3" model at a higher price, it probably would sell a reasonable amount because they'd run their marketing machine behind it - above that size would be trickier because they'd have to undo their marketing about why they designed the smaller one around one-handed use. There are other things they have to consider like avoiding problems for developers, avoiding manufacturing issues, managing inventory and whether it will sell enough to justify doing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

But now that I have an iPad I am much less hesitant to get a large Android phone if no large iPhone option exist. Ironically for me at least the iPad might drive me to Android for my phone since switching back to my iPhone after using my iPad is just too dramatic a change. Plus I can still have an use an iOS device with all my apps so lose nothing.

That's because you want to use your phone like your iPad. There's a reason Apple makes both. I use my iPhone like a phone. It's not great for reading on and a Galaxy Note isn't either. At no point would I use a Galaxy Note in place of an iPad or iPad mini.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

I seriously doubt the S4 would sell nearly as well if it were only a 4.3" device.

The 4.3" Galaxy S2 sold 40 million units. It's over a long timeframe but lots of people bought one. The S3 managed that in 1/3 the time due to the way the market grows e.g the iPhone 4S sold at double the rate of the 4, despite having very few changes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

Everyone I know with a large Android phone cite that as the main reason they chose that over an iPhone and not a preference for Android. It certainly is the reason I might switch as well. I think they would lose a lot of sales to the iPhone and to companies like HTC who make a larger display if they only sold one with 4.3"

It's not a case of thinking about it. Apple isn't losing a lot of sales to HTC or Samsung. Apple has 20% of the phone market, Samsung has 30%. Apple's flagship phones outsold Samsung's in Q1 2013. Apple takes in more than double Samsung's profits. HTC made under $3m profit in Q1 (that's million, not billion). This quarter, they project $2.37b revenue. Apple's quarterly revenue is $43.6b.

Do you honestly think that bigger phones will propel HTC to nearly 20x their revenue just because they're bigger? Even despite the fact they've been selling large phones since at least 2011:

http://www.techradar.com/reviews/phones/mobile-phones/htc-titan-1033252/review
post #91 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

That's what people have been doing though:

"Most of the top selling Android phone are 4.5 and larger like the 4.8" Samsung, Don't get me wrong, I am all for a larger screen on the iPhone and if I have to settle for only a slightly larger 4" screen then I guess I will."

http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/150111/4-screens-for-apples-next-iphone-will-be-built-as-soon-as-june#post_2111031

One of the primary reasons people have given is that they observe lots of people with large Android phones:

"I rarely see iPhone's anymore like I used to but see large Android phones all over the place. I remember at Halloween waiting in a very long line at a haunted house being the only person with an iPhone while I observed dozens and dozens of Android phones with large displays. Even all the young kids and teenagers had one and some of these kids were very small, like under 5' tall with tiny hands but they sure didn't seem to have any trouble using them or putting them in their pockets. But even at clubs or expensive restaurants with all adults seeing an iPhone is becoming a bit more rare for me recently. All anecdotal for sure but when many other people all across the country are saying the same thing...."

http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/155309/ces-2013-expected-to-showcase-embarrassingly-large-smartphones/160#post_2255034

It usually goes like this:
step 1: assume that because you want a *insert product Apple doesn't or no longer offers*, everyone else does too
step 2: tell stories about how many people you know have one or want one and how important or large that group of people is
step 3: when sales figures don't backup widespread demand, the figures aren't important and Apple should still make the product because you still want one
The same applies in reverse though. You have no idea how few people would buy one when a 4" flagship model would be available that costs less. Trying every possible variation under the sun to see what sticks is Samsung's tactic. It's not an efficient way to do it because you can't possibly apply the same marketing to every model equally. Samsung is pushing consumers towards larger displays because they market their flagship models more.

If Apple came out with a 4.3" model at a higher price, it probably would sell a reasonable amount because they'd run their marketing machine behind it - above that size would be trickier because they'd have to undo their marketing about why they designed the smaller one around one-handed use. There are other things they have to consider like avoiding problems for developers, avoiding manufacturing issues, managing inventory and whether it will sell enough to justify doing.
That's because you want to use your phone like your iPad. There's a reason Apple makes both. I use my iPhone like a phone. It's not great for reading on and a Galaxy Note isn't either. At no point would I use a Galaxy Note in place of an iPad or iPad mini.
The 4.3" Galaxy S2 sold 40 million units. It's over a long timeframe but lots of people bought one. The S3 managed that in 1/3 the time due to the way the market grows e.g the iPhone 4S sold at double the rate of the 4, despite having very few changes.
It's not a case of thinking about it. Apple isn't losing a lot of sales to HTC or Samsung. Apple has 20% of the phone market, Samsung has 30%. Apple's flagship phones outsold Samsung's in Q1 2013. Apple takes in more than double Samsung's profits. HTC made under $3m profit in Q1 (that's million, not billion). This quarter, they project $2.37b revenue. Apple's quarterly revenue is $43.6b.

Do you honestly think that bigger phones will propel HTC to nearly 20x their revenue just because they're bigger? Even despite the fact they've been selling large phones since at least 2011:

http://www.techradar.com/reviews/phones/mobile-phones/htc-titan-1033252/review

So how come the Galaxy Ace with its 2.8" screen is one of the top selling Android phones?
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post #92 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

So how come the Galaxy Ace with its 2.8" screen is one of the top selling Android phones?

Because they sell them in pairs and market them as a 5.6" device?¡

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