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As its shares rebound, Apple seen as ready to 'change the narrative'

post #1 of 59
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Shares of Apple have continued to rise since mid-April, setting the stage for the company to "change the narrative" beginning with WWDC in June, one analyst believes.

Barclays


Ben A. Reitzes of Barclays increased his AAPL price target from $465 to $525 on Monday, citing three key reasons. In particular, he believes Apple will get investors and consumers at large talking about new products again, starting with its annual Worldwide Developers Conference, which kicks off June 10.

Reitzes expects Apple to announce new software, services and Macs at WWDC, followed by another event in September, where the company is expected to announce a new iPhone, as well as potentially unveil updated iPads.

"With these events, combined with improving builds in the supply chain, we believe investors will become less concerned with the September product transition quarter and start to anticipate a large holiday quarter," he said.

Beyond the ramp up for new products, Reitzes said he feels better about Apple's gross margins. The analyst had initially feared that if Apple were to release a low-cost iPhone, it would severely degrade the company's margins, but he has since cooled on the possibility of a "worst-case" scenario in 2014.

Finally, Reitzes said he "didn't fully appreciate" the importance of Apple's recently announced capital reinvestment program, which will see the company spend $100 billion through 2015 on share buybacks and a larger quarterly dividend.

"Apple needed this, especially for management credibility," he said. "After seeing how buybacks have helped secularly challenged tech stocks from Seagate to even Lexmark, we simply believe that this market likes buybacks ??even in tech."
post #2 of 59

Stock could be on the rise....finally an analyst that is predicting something positive for Apple.
Apple jumped to #6 on Forbes 500 based on revenue...
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2013/snapshots/670.html?iid=F500_sp_list

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"Eventually Google will have their Afghanistan with Oracle and collapse"

"The future is Apple, Google, and a third company that hasn't yet been created."


 


 

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Tallest Skil:


"Eventually Google will have their Afghanistan with Oracle and collapse"

"The future is Apple, Google, and a third company that hasn't yet been created."


 


 

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post #3 of 59

Of course he didn't understand the value of the stock buyback... It lessens the ability of him and his ilk to affect the price!

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #4 of 59
What a joke. So they drove the price down and are now driving it back up. Any analyst who spoke in ill of Apple and now says the opposite should be put behind bars.

Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

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Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

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post #5 of 59
Based on the trollish comments on AI the only way Apple's stock could be rebounding are 1) Tim Cook was canned, 2) Apple opened up iOS, or 3) Apple is licensing Mac OS X to Dell and HP.
Edited by SolipsismX - 5/6/13 at 1:58pm

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #6 of 59
I think that part of the problem with Apples share price has been the rather lack of an exciting product since the 15" retina MacBook Pro.

All other products have simply been spec bumps.

With a (hopefully) large iOS refresh amongst other things the last 3 months or so of this year may actually make Apple exciting again.
iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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post #7 of 59
Originally Posted by saarek View Post
I think that part of the problem with Apples share price has been the rather lack of an exciting product since the 15" retina MacBook Pro.

 

No, that's not at all the problem.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #8 of 59
Another analyst decides to take his investors out for a spin.

The tech press does on occasion call them on this. Except of course, the two sectors are joined at the hip when it comes to stories about Apple.

2013 is not going to be an exciting year for releases. Not until Q4, and even if that.

To understand why you need to look at Tim Cook. Cook delivers, he's always delivered, it's the reason Steve anointed him as the successor, anyone associated with Apple knows this. He's taken an approach which has not shifted the vision Jobs had in motion but actually focussed it.

And as a supply guy he has focussed on workflows and systems. He cleared out Forstall, a disruptive element in management, put Ives, the principal creative in the company, center stage, and trimmed management. The end of 2012 saw a flurry of product releases, Cook clearing the decks in terms of active projects.

There is no one more aware of him being Jobs successor than Cook himself. My reading is he wants to take this well oiled machine, which is geared now to releasing gradual improvements to a range of devices, somewhere new. And he's given himself some time to do that.

Ives now oversees both hardware (mac and iOS) and software (mac and iOS). This is a major development in terms of what end users will get to experience. The clearing of the decks indicates an open brief to re-invent. Likely as not, we won't see the fruits of this till next year.

A long dearth of stories the market and tech press will likely hail as an ongoing train wreck.

Neither will they like what Apple will likely do in the interim, steady slow incremental updates, seeing dullness where the public see reliability and familiarity. Apple learned by studying Microsoft, they've played this game before.

The real questions to ask of Apple are where are the weaknesses in this new structure? Possible areas of concern are the lack of clear competing teams in this new structure, there was always the potential that a particular project could redefine the future of the company (the original Mac, the iPhone) against other teams efforts. If all the teams have one creative overseer maybe, just maybe, that's a weak spot.
post #9 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tommy Weir View Post
To understand why you need to look at Tim Cook. Cook delivers, he's always delivered, it's the reason Steve anointed him as the successor, anyone associated with Apple knows this. He's taken an approach which has not shifted the vision Jobs had in motion but actually focussed it.

 

Cook didn't go into the job with the attitude "well, now it's MY company, or MY turn to do things MY way.   A refreshing change from the way most CEOs operate.  And unlike a lot of corporate America, he's not interested in driving the company into a ditch just so he can cash out.

post #10 of 59

Based on the market's reaction, it would appear that the major problem was that Apple was sitting on its billions, instead of spending that money on shareholders.  Now that they raised the dividend and offered to spend more on buybacks, things are looking up (so far).  New products, earnings, iPhone market share etc all seem less significant.  Not sure I agree, as I think the massive drop in share price was dumb to begin with and made no sense, but the reaction from Tim Cook's recent actions is fairly obvious.

post #11 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tommy Weir View Post

Another analyst decides to take his investors out for a spin.

The tech press does on occasion call them on this.

 

Philip Elmer de Witt (and maybe John Gruber) are the only ones I know of who call out the analysts.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #12 of 59
Cause. Effect. All messed up with analysts.
post #13 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikool View Post

The iPhone5 was probably the least exciting of any iPhone ever. Many have yet to upgrade from the practically perfect 4S- even Cook was caught lugging around a 4S. 

Yep. That must be the reason why it's the largest selling phone of all time.

Oh boy..... What do we have here.....
post #14 of 59
"Change the narrative"?? These analysts are such criminals. Apple's narrative hasn't changed at all. It's the analysts who changed the narrative by dumping the stock with fake news stories, and now they're pumping the stock with legitimate news stories.
post #15 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Yep. That must be the reason why it's the largest selling phone of all time.

Oh boy..... What do we have here.....

 

ikool was trolling, but the introduction of the 4 form with retina was IMO more exiting than the 5. They should bring it back with updated internals and slightly thinner/lighter as an alternative model. I like the 3.5" display and glass slab look and feel.

post #16 of 59

The dividend yield + buy back = a nice return, somewhere near 5% at 500$.   With the return to investors Apple has floor the stock.  After that its must maintain its EPS or increase it with cycles or new products.

post #17 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Yep. That must be the reason why it's the largest selling phone of all time.

Oh boy..... What do we have here.....

The iPhone 5 has sold nowhere near 250 million units. So what do we have there?

post #18 of 59
Originally Posted by garbage View Post
The iPhone 5 has sold nowhere near 250 million units. So what do we have there?

 

Okay, so what phone sold 249,999,999 units?!

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #19 of 59
WWDC will do that. Not sure what else Apple has done to change the narrative. 1hmm.gif

EDIT: Besides the dividend and stock buy back of course...
post #20 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikool View Post

What do the masses know? (You can't have it both ways). Those in the know know. Learn the code.
What? You claimed that the phone was a boring update and appear to say that this was one major reason why their stock was tanking. And then when faced with the fact that the phone was actually selling quite well you say it is because people are stupid? What point are you actually trying to make? Is it that the phone is partly responsible for apples stock tanking or are you just saying you think it was a boring update in your opinion?
NoahJ
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi
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NoahJ
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi
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post #21 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

I think that part of the problem with Apples share price has been the rather lack of an exciting product since the 15" retina MacBook Pro.

All other products have simply been spec bumps.

With a (hopefully) large iOS refresh amongst other things the last 3 months or so of this year may actually make Apple exciting again.

 

Wait, the share price dropped 40% because the iPad Mini, the iPhone 5, the 13" Retina Macbook, and the 128GB Retina iPad were just "unexciting spec bumps"…?

 

Please...

 

The share price should not be affected like it was (a 40% decline) simply because their 'product release schedule' hasn't been exciting to some people.

 

During the same declining period, their profits increased (except the most recent quarter), they managed sales records each and every quarter (including the most recent), and continue to dominate in real market share. That's what should drive share value. A slight downturn in margins (or perceived "excitement") doesn't justify the depression in price either.

 

Apple's products are excellent, consistent, and continue to improve incrementally. I don't need exciting, I need functional and excellent products. I get that from them. That said, they no doubt have plenty of interesting (aka exciting) products in the pipeline. I'm looking forward to them.

 

What does any of that have to do with share price, if they continue to dominate the market and sell+profit more than anyone else?

post #22 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikool View Post

 

 

Add to that the Apple Maps flop, NYTimes Pulitzer prize Apple bashing  and the perception that Tim Cook needs his own Tim Cook to fly to China to handle the supply end of things, etc. 

The iPhone5 was probably the least exciting of any iPhone ever. Many have yet to upgrade from the practically perfect 4S- even Cook was caught lugging around a 4S. 

 

Right, which explains why the iPhone 5 has outsold all previous models...

post #23 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Yep. That must be the reason why it's the largest selling phone of all time.

Oh boy..... What do we have here.....

 

A brand new t-roll?

post #24 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by garbage View Post

The iPhone 5 has sold nowhere near 250 million units. So what do we have there?

 

garbage indeed…  ikool is that you again?

 

stupid human. The iPhone 5 doesn't need to sell an amount equal to "all previous iPhones combined" to be the best-selling iPhone model to date...

post #25 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoahJ View Post


What? You claimed that the phone was a boring update and appear to say that this was one major reason why their stock was tanking. And then when faced with the fact that the phone was actually selling quite well you say it is because people are stupid? What point are you actually trying to make? Is it that the phone is partly responsible for apples stock tanking or are you just saying you think it was a boring update in your opinion?

 

It must really irk these trolls to be surrounded by so many stupid people. Perhaps they ought to spend more time in their crowded, local Apple store, basking in their superiority.

Where are we on the curve? We'll know once it goes asymptotic!
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Where are we on the curve? We'll know once it goes asymptotic!
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post #26 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by IQatEdo View Post

It must really irk these trolls to be surrounded by so many stupid people. Perhaps they ought to spend more time in their crowded, local Apple store, basking in their superiority.

Not everyone has a 'local Apple store' to go to.
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #27 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Based on the trollish comments on AI the only way Apple's stock could be rebounding are 1) Tim Cook was canned, 2) Apple opened up iOS, or 3) Apple is licensing Mac OS X to Dell and HP.

Don't forget the 20 different models of the iPhone.

Still I think they should have staggered product releases.
post #28 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikool View Post

What do the masses know? (You can't have it both ways). Those in the know know. Learn the code.

Hello AI? Could you please institute a rule along the lines of "your IQ must be at least 50 if you want to sign on to become a member"?
post #29 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by garbage View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Yep. That must be the reason why it's the largest selling phone of all time.


Oh boy..... What do we have here.....
The iPhone 5 has sold nowhere near 250 million units. So what do we have there?

Some day, when you figure out the difference between 'rate of sales' and 'cumulative sales' you'll do a facepalm.

You're welcome, in advance.
post #30 of 59

The only 2 things I would have done differently so far is embrace blu-ray on Macs and made the iPhone 5 screen much bigger. Other than that, I think they're making all the right moves. 

post #31 of 59
Analysts such as Reitzes have been wrong so many times,it worries me when he say the price is going up (maybe he looked at the share price on his computer).
You know with analysts that either:
(1) They don't know what they are talking about and just following the herd.
(2) They are trying to set an agenda based on a long or a short position.
What you should never do is follow their advice!
post #32 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

I think that part of the problem with Apples share price has been the rather lack of an exciting product since the 15" retina MacBook Pro.
Not at all! 4 or 5 years between truly new products Is pretty amazing for just about any company.
Quote:
All other products have simply been spec bumps.
This isn't true at all either.

Take the iPad for example, which people see as a spec bump. That is all well and good but it totally dismisses the innovation of the new processor in these machines. Like it or not that is a truly new product within a product and is the result of some very non trivial development work. Apples processor technology may very well have as much of an impact on the company as the iPod or the Mac.
Quote:
With a (hopefully) large iOS refresh amongst other things the last 3 months or so of this year may actually make Apple exciting again.

I've never understood this idea that an OS can make a company exciting again. I Can see an operating system making developers excited but that is another thing altogether. After all, all it does is support the apps running on the machine. If you want to excite me, fix the iWorks apps so that files work on both platforms without conversion.

The bigger issue is that iOS is rather mature technology. What do you rationally add to it to make it better?
post #33 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Based on the trollish comments on AI the only way Apple's stock could be rebounding are 1) Tim Cook was canned, 2) Apple opened up iOS, or 3) Apple is licensing Mac OS X to Dell and HP.


You've forgotten the following:

 

- Apple has to launch a cheaper phone.

- Apple has to launch phone with a larger screen.

- Apple has to launch larger yet cheaper phone.

 

Just imagine how high $APPL will climb if all these "has-to's" come to be. ;)

post #34 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

That is all well and good but it totally dismisses the innovation of the new processor in these machines. Like it or not that is a truly new product within a product and is the result of some very non trivial development work. Apples processor technology may very well have as much of an impact on the company as the iPod or the Mac.

I appreciate someone who appreciates technology. But I think you're going too far. Nonetheless, I like the way you think on this front.

post #35 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by tribalogical View Post

 

garbage indeed…  ikool is that you again?

 

stupid human. The iPhone 5 doesn't need to sell an amount equal to "all previous iPhones combined" to be the best-selling iPhone model to date...

 

He claimed iPhone 5 was the 'largest selling phone of all time'. Patently untrue unless it has suddenly sold 250 million, which is the current record.

post #36 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Some day, when you figure out the difference between 'rate of sales' and 'cumulative sales' you'll do a facepalm.

You're welcome, in advance.

 

He foolishly claimed iPhone 5 was the largest selling phone of all time. Not fastest. Feel free to facepalm now, no need to wait for the future.

post #37 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Okay, so what phone sold 249,999,999 units?!

 

Feel free to look it up yourself.

post #38 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Originally Posted by garbage View Post
The iPhone 5 has sold nowhere near 250 million units. So what do we have there?

 

Okay, so what phone sold 249,999,999 units?!

 

He's referring to the old Nokia 1110, which Wikipedia lists as having sold 250M.

post #39 of 59
Originally Posted by garbage View Post
Feel free to look it up yourself.


Nah, you can just tell us.


Originally Posted by muppetry View Post
He's referring to the old Nokia 1110, which Wikipedia lists as having sold 250M.
*Figures are approximate and based on the best information available.

 

And it gives no source for that whatsoever, so…

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #40 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Originally Posted by muppetry View Post
He's referring to the old Nokia 1110, which Wikipedia lists as having sold 250M.
*Figures are approximate and based on the best information available.

 

And it gives no source for that whatsoever, so…

 

I wasn't commenting on its accuracy, just noting that the aptly named poster had discovered Wikipedia.

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