or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › General › General Discussion › Google's Android on 59.5% of all 'smart mobile devices' shipped in Q1, Apple at 19.3%
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Google's Android on 59.5% of all 'smart mobile devices' shipped in Q1, Apple at 19.3% - Page 2

post #41 of 92

I don't understand why we have analysts who analyze meaningless numbers. Some people prefer Fords, others BMWs. Android will always be a Ford.

post #42 of 92

And water is free? Really?

post #43 of 92
post #44 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by pfisher View Post


Apple can't track all sales. They don't know what is all sold everywhere. They don't have access to other company's inventories. There was an article I read last night that stated that Apple's numbers are "shipped", because they can only track sales through their stores.

 

"sold" is a myth.

 

P

 

Every iOS device is activated through iTunes, after sale, before use...

 

every,

 

single,

 

one.

Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
post #45 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

 

Every iOS device is activated through iTunes, after sale, before use...

 

every,

 

single,

 

one.

Why wouldn't Apple report those figures then instead of "channel inventory"? Wouldn't activations be a more transparent figure if all you're interested in is how many smartphones or tablets were sold to an end-user?

melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #46 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I don't doubt at all that Apple would know how many units they had shipped, as well they should! I don't believe Apple "knows" the actual product inventory numbers from hundreds of resellers with nearly the same degree of certainly.

 

Walk into an Apple store, with an iOS device and they can tell the day it was activated, hence no need for receipts.

 

With a 100% degree of certainty.

 

I don't expect that you remember all the gloating from the Android crowd when iOS devices had to be plugged into iTunes before use.

Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
post #47 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

 

Walk into an Apple store, with an iOS device and they can tell the day it was activated, hence no need for receipts.

 

With a 100% degree of certainty.

 

I don't expect that you remember all the gloating from the Android crowd when iOS devices had to be plugged into iTunes before use.

Well if Apple knows exactly how many iPhones were truly sold to an end-user, i.e. activated, during any particular quarter why not just say what the numbers are? Why the shipped + channel inventory exercise?

melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #48 of 92

In other news, more Ford vehicles are sold world wide than the total number of Toyota Camry sales.

post #49 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Well if Apple knows exactly how many iPhones were truly sold to an end-user, i.e. activated, during any particular quarter why not just say what the numbers are? Why the shipped + channel inventory exercise?

 

Sold + channel.

Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
post #50 of 92

Say it with me boys and girls: Shipped does NOT equal sold!

post #51 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

 

Sold + channel.

Huh? Are you finally coming around to shipped=sold as a general rule?  

 

Anyway so as not to forget about the question, why do you think Apple isn't announcing activations if it's a more accurate accounting of the number of iDevices sold to an end-user as you say it is? 

melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #52 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacHarry de View Post

Wait, the entire world votes for free food but some people are still buying premium food and beverages (like Coke). The entire world drinks a lot of water for free. Hey, GREAT!

Wine for the rest of us ;-)

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Coke is a premium food? You flatter them :)

 

Actually Coke is premium in Cuba.  Its more expensive than rhum there.

post #53 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by robogobo View Post

Say it with me boys and girls: Shipped does NOT equal sold!

 

 

Not specific enough, because "Shipped to retailer DOES equal sold for reporting purposes".

 

What you mean to say is, "Shipped to retailer does not equal sold to end user".

 

This applies to both Samsung and Apple.

post #54 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by pfisher View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by mudman2 View Post

here we go, Shipped vs Sales again


lol losers


Apple can't track all sales. They don't know what is all sold everywhere. They don't have access to other company's inventories. There was an article I read last night that stated that Apple's numbers are "shipped", because they can only track sales through their stores.

"sold" is a myth.

P

I was an Apple dealer 1978-1989...

There was quite a rigid contractual agreement between Apple and the dealer concerning pricing, reselling, returns and reporting.

It was a fairly automated reporting process for the day, and I suspect that the reporting requirement has gotten more detailed and more frequent.

Suffice it to say, that Apple resellers were required to report all sales of Apple products to Apple on a weekly basis.

Special promotions often required reporting on a daily basis.

This information is used by Apple to measure sell-through to end-users * and forecast inventory, distribution and manufacturing requirements.

* Apple resellers are contractually prevented from heavily discounting Apple's MSRP or reselling Apple product to other resellers.

So, yes, I suspect that Apple knows, on a weekly basis, exactly what is in the channel and what is sold through to end users.
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
post #55 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

How else to include Microsoft in a discussion on the mobile market if laptops aren't included? 1biggrin.gif

There's always "Others" 1smile.gif

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply
post #56 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by robogobo View Post

Say it with me boys and girls: Shipped does NOT equal sold!

Sure it does. And it equals "activations." /S

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply
post #57 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by pfisher View Post



Apple can't track all sales. They don't know what is all sold everywhere. They don't have access to other company's inventories. There was an article I read last night that stated that Apple's numbers are "shipped", because they can only track sales through their stores.

"sold" is a myth.

P

Yes but good luck getting people to get that here. Apples numbers are shipped not sell through, although you get the sell through in the conference call.

Yes. Android sales are estimates but even if those estimates were 10% off in unit shipments android is still way ahead.

As I posted in another post: Apple has channel inventory numbers by store at least on a weekly basis (the dealers are required to report this). So Apple knows, for its purposes what is going on in the channel and each individual reseller location.

When Apple reports its quarterly numbers, it gives shipments (to the channel) for that quarter and channel inventory status at the end of the quarter (by product: Mac, iPhone, iPad, etc.). It is a simple calculation to use the prior quarter numbers to determine sell through, for the quarter, to end users.

Apple competitors do not report channel inventory (and sometimes, not even shipments).
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
post #58 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


As I posted in another post: Apple has channel inventory numbers by store at least on a weekly basis (the dealers are required to report this). So Apple knows, for its purposes what is going on in the channel and each individual reseller location.

When Apple reports its quarterly numbers, it gives shipments (to the channel) for that quarter and channel inventory status at the end of the quarter (by product: Mac, iPhone, iPad, etc.). It is a simple calculation to use the prior quarter numbers to determine sell through, for the quarter, to end users.

Apple competitors do not report channel inventory (and sometimes, not even shipments).

Dick, in truth all you apparently know is what Apple required of you 25 years ago. It may still be true, I dunno. But I had asked earlier if Apple has ever disclosed how they're determining channel inventory and the lack of responses would seem to indicate they have not.

melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #59 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I don't believe Apple themselves has ever explained how they determine channel inventory numbers. If they have perhaps someone could link it. It's almost assuredly an estimate only, tho an educated one, as I don't believe a physical count from hundreds of worldwide retail outlets would be a reasonable expectation. 

I used to work in Apple Cork where they knew exactly down to the unit how many were shipped per quarter from Cork. Foxconn sends devices to Apple which distributes them to channel or direct online sales which can be tracked. So that bit is true - Apples figures are near enough exact, or exact.

They are mostly sales to Channel though , as well as sales to online consumers.

Apple resellers are contractually required to report sales to end users and returns from end users. When I was in the business (ca 1989) the reporting was on a weekly basis by SKU. Likely, it is fully-automated, and reported on a daily basis, today.
l
Apple doesn't have a lot of SKUs so it is not too many products to track for even a small reseller.

Apple knows what it shipped to each reseller, so it can easily calculate reseller channel inventory == prior inventory - sales to end users - returns from end users.

Special arrangements are made if a reseller has too much inventory and wants to return unsold stock to Apple.

Apple resellers are contractually prevented from heavy discounts and selling to other resellers...
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
post #60 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Huh? Are you finally coming around to shipped=sold as a general rule?  

Anyway so as not to forget about the question, why do you think Apple isn't announcing activations if it's a more accurate accounting of the number of iDevices sold to an end-user as you say it is? 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Dick, in truth all you apparently know is what Apple required of you 25 years ago. It may still be true, I dunno. But I had asked earlier if Apple has ever disclosed how they're determining channel inventory and the lack of responses would seem to indicate they have not.

It could be activations. Or the increases/decreases in channel inventory from last quarter etc.

They can work it out and give specific numbers for both, although shipped to channel is the headline ( because its always > sell through).

In the last conference quarter Tim C said that while shipments of the iPhone were up 6.7% yoy the sell through was up 14%. This is where channel sales can affect Apple, nobody really reads the Q&A except deeply involved analysts. And last year they stuffed the channel as they hasn't yet met demand equilibrium due to a later release in China of the 4S compared to the 5 , this year ( equilibrium is something you can't estimate until you hit it ) - so they were stuffing the channel. Clearly they then quickly hit demand supply eq.


All this in in the conference calls.
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
Reply
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
Reply
post #61 of 92

I have been wondering how this "analyst" was defining "smart mobile devices" in their charts...

 

Someone here has been insisting it encompasses all "smart" mobile devices including laptops. I suppose that would have to be correct given the >300 million 'smart' devices sold in a single quarter.

 

If that IS the case, it skews the numbers away from Apple considerably, because we're now including a significant portion of the PC market in those "post PC" numbers. It's already well known that Apple doesn't own as much of the PC space.

 

So, although some might take it to look like bad news for Apple, to me it is notable that even when mixing in mobile PCs, a significant portion of annual PC sales, Apple has still captured almost a fifth of the world's "smart mobile" market share. One company. With a handful of products.

 

That alone should have the stock heading into record territory. And yet…...

post #62 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by tribalogical View Post

I have been wondering how this "analyst" was defining "smart mobile devices" in their charts...

 

Someone here has been insisting it encompasses all "smart" mobile devices including laptops. I suppose that would have to be correct given the >300 million 'smart' devices sold in a single quarter.

 

If that IS the case, it skews the numbers away from Apple considerably, because we're now including a significant portion of the PC market in those "post PC" numbers. It's already well known that Apple doesn't own as much of the PC space.

 

So, although some might take it to look like bad news for Apple, to me it is notable that even when mixing in mobile PCs, a significant portion of annual PC sales, Apple has still captured almost a fifth of the world's "smart mobile" market share. One company. With a handful of products.

 

That alone should have the stock heading into record territory. And yet…...

From the second paragraph: "In a report on Thursday, Canalys estimated that "smart mobile device" shipments, comprised of smartphones, tablets and laptops, grew to 308.7 million units by the end of quarter one, a 37.4 percent increase from the year ago period."

 

And I agree it's skews the results.

melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #63 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Dick, in truth all you apparently know is what Apple required of you 25 years ago. It may still be true, I dunno. But I had asked earlier if Apple has ever disclosed how they're determining channel inventory and the lack of responses would seem to indicate they have not.

Probably a trade secret.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Well if Apple knows exactly how many iPhones were truly sold to an end-user, i.e. activated, during any particular quarter why not just say what the numbers are? Why the shipped + channel inventory exercise?

Because iDevices get resold and then reactivated. Apple doesn't make money of those sales (unless they sell the refurbs).
post #64 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I don't believe Apple themselves has ever explained how they determine channel inventory numbers. If they have perhaps someone could link it. It's almost assuredly an estimate only, tho an educated one, as I don't believe a physical count from hundreds of worldwide retail outlets would be a reasonable expectation. 

Stop the stupid FUD. Apple talks about these numbers at analyst conference calls and earnings calls. You simply don't fuss around with estimates like that, since you run into incredible legal and disclosure risks.

 

Did you not know that!?

post #65 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Well if Apple knows exactly how many iPhones were truly sold to an end-user, i.e. activated, during any particular quarter why not just say what the numbers are? Why the shipped + channel inventory exercise?

Since that is what companies across many industries do, i.e., it's standard reporting practice (if you chose to report it, since it's voluntary disclosure). It is a consistent way of reporting under FASB and SEC guidelines so that analysts, academics, data vendors, etc can report and analyze data across multiple industries.

 

For example, everyone had to report a "Net Income" whether they want to or not. They can't simply report their favorite industry- or firm-specific number. (If they do so, they have explicitly point out that those are 'proforma', non-FASB figures).

 

As to your point about whether Apple should report activations, it is laughable that you should be asking for more reporting from the one company that provides the most comprehensive data compared to peers. Apple's competitors don't even report something as basic as volumes shipped, and yet, you want Apple to report 'activations'?!

 

LOL, you're a piece of work....


Edited by anantksundaram - 5/10/13 at 12:25pm
post #66 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

 

Sold + channel.

Huh? Are you finally coming around to shipped=sold as a general rule?  

 

Anyway so as not to forget about the question, why do you think Apple isn't announcing activations if it's a more accurate accounting of the number of iDevices sold to an end-user as you say it is? 

Um... that's not what hill60 said. 

 

As to the second part of your post, see above.

post #67 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

But I had asked earlier if Apple has ever disclosed how they're determining channel inventory and the lack of responses would seem to indicate they have not.

Why don't you write to their investor relations folks and ask?

post #68 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Why don't you write to their investor relations folks and ask?

I'm surprised you or someone else here hadn't already done so, or that Apple hadn't spoken about it. I know there's been some concern about the methodology behind some of numbers that get tossed around in AI discussions.

 

I can certainly give it a try, tho I'm no investor. Anyone particular there that you're already familiar with and likely to answer?

melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #69 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Stop the stupid FUD. Apple talks about these numbers at analyst conference calls and earnings calls. You simply don't fuss around with estimates like that, since you run into incredible legal and disclosure risks.

 

Did you not know that!?

Then I would assume as you do they must only be estimates since Apple uses qualifiers like "about". As a knowledgeable Apple investor it seems odd that you wouldn't have ever wondered about it yourself and instead feel you need to be defensive when the question is asked.


Edited by Gatorguy - 5/10/13 at 1:15pm
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #70 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Why don't you write to their investor relations folks and ask?

I'm surprised you or someone else here hadn't already done so, or that Apple hadn't spoken about it. I know there's been some concern about the methodology behind some of numbers that get tossed around in AI discussions.

 

I can certainly give it a try, tho I'm no investor. Anyone particular there that you're already familiar with and likely to answer?

If you're not interested in following up and learning more -- since your premise is that Apple must be lying or is lazy -- why do you even bother to bring it up?

 

Wait....

post #71 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

If you're not interested in following up and learning more -- since your premise is that Apple must be lying or is lazy -- why do you even bother to bring it up?

 

Wait....

That's a strange comment. I asked if you had a person at Apple you could suggest and you come back with I'm not interested in finding the answer?

 

Your assumption about why I asked couldn't be more wrong. You'd apparently just be happier if I accused Apple of lying since that's what you wished to see. And in reality I was just as interested in Hill60's claim that Apple could tell us exactly how many iPhone or iPads had been purchased by an end-user during any quarter by relying on iTunes activations. If true then wouldn't that be the more appropriate metric to report for those interested in accurate sell-thru numbers?


Edited by Gatorguy - 5/10/13 at 12:54pm
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #72 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

If you're not interested in following up and learning more -- since your premise is that Apple must be lying or is lazy -- why do you even bother to bring it up?

 

Wait....

That's a strange comment. I asked if you had a person at Apple you could suggest and you come back with I'm not interested in finding the answer?

 

Your assumption about why I asked couldn't be more wrong. You'd apparently just be happier if I accused Apple of lying since that's what you wished to see.

Have you bothered to go into "Apple Investor Relations", and say, click on "Contact", and say, craft a question, and say, hit "Submit", and see what happens?

 

Are you saying it did it not even occur to you to do that? 

 

I don't believe you're lazy (since you spend a lot of time trolling here with passive-aggressive posts), so it's logical to assume that you're just dissembling as usual.

 

And, while you're at it, care to respond to the three other posts I had made in response to your weird assertions?

post #73 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

 

And, while you're at it, care to respond to the three other posts I had made in response to your weird assertions?

Which ones were those? I remember this one, but after I replied you never responded again. 

http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/157449/apple-grabs-no-5-spot-in-growing-chinese-smartphone-market#post_2324702

melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #74 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Have you bothered to go into "Apple Investor Relations", and say, click on "Contact", and say, craft a question, and say, hit "Submit", and see what happens?

Done. I'll post the answer if/when I get one from them.

melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #75 of 92

Android, designed to be given away for free.  Mission in life:  proliferate like crazy to ensure users have access to Google search.

Apple, designed to be sold at a profit.  Mission in life: maximize Apple profits.

 

Outcome?

 

Android.  Making little (direct) profit.  Proliferating like crazy.  Mission accomplished!

Apple.  Making profit like crazy.  Mission accomplished!

 

Saying 'Android is winning' because it is gaining more market share is a little moot.  Its free.  Of course it is going to proliferate well.  Saying things like 'ZOMG Android is only winning because they are giving it away for free' is a little silly and redundant.  Its like saying 'the only reason there are so many guinea pigs is because they breed a lot.'

 

Saying 'Apple is winning' because they are making more money than Android is also moot.  Of course it is.  Android is free.

 

Personally I like Google's strategy.  Make money when a user uses Android.  Make money when a user uses Apple.

post #76 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post
Which ones were those? 

#64, #65, and #66 above.

post #77 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood View Post

Saying 'Apple is winning' because they are making more money than Android is also moot.  Of course it is.  Android is free.

 

Personally I like Google's strategy.  Make money when a user uses Android.  Make money when a user uses Apple.

 

Like Microsoft's strategy, make money when a manufacturer pays their license for using Android?

Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
post #78 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Have you bothered to go into "Apple Investor Relations", and say, click on "Contact", and say, craft a question, and say, hit "Submit", and see what happens?

Done. I'll post the answer if/when I get one from them.

You will. Apple IR is fantastic about responding. It normally takes 36 - 48 hours. Factor in the weekend, in addition.

post #79 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

#64, #65, and #66 above.
Those were all answered in post 72 weren't they?
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #80 of 92
So, current ToysRUs flyer has three different 7 inch kid tablets from three different manufacturers that look Android based. Note they come with 4GB storage (and it looks like no SD slot)! And there is a 10 inch Archos tablet for $179 (also only with 4GB but with an SD slot). So, now I know why Android tablet share is rising (after all, any of these at ToysRUs are considered sold by the manufacturer).
Jimbo
Reply
Jimbo
Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: General Discussion
AppleInsider › Forums › General › General Discussion › Google's Android on 59.5% of all 'smart mobile devices' shipped in Q1, Apple at 19.3%