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Short sellers 'mugged' Apple stock in late April - Page 2

post #41 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

What do you mean by "number of shares owned by Apple" -- Apple does not own any of its own shares, afaik?

That's why I am asking. I don't know what's involved with a buyback. If the shares have to be held by the issuer for x-duration before being deprecated to abide by this or that law.

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post #42 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

What do you mean by "number of shares owned by Apple" -- Apple does not own any of its own shares, afaik?
That's why I am asking. I don't know what's involved with a buyback. If the shares have to be held by the issuer for x-duration before being deprecated to abide by this or that law.


They are all typically 'cancelled' (and the transfer agent has to keep track of the cancellations, noting each unique share number -- sort of similar to how every currency note has a unique number). However, the canceled shares can be kept as 'treasury stock' for future reissue as new stock, or for issue to employees when they cash in options. The same 'share number' that was used before will re-enter the transfer agents books.

A company cannot own itself.
post #43 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post
What is wrong and illegal are the BS rumor spreaders, who write false stories about Apple with the intent to manipulate the market. These people should be behind bars.

Exactly correct.

Unfortunately the market manipulators seem to get too much control over Apple's stock. Perhaps they are the only ones buying and selling in volume.

post #44 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by macFanDave View Post

Stock manipulation is illegal. People who have spread lies about companies to drive their stock prices one way or the other (mostly down) have rightfully gone to jail for this. Why aren't regulators doing anything about the obvious campaigns of lies and smears against Apple?

I guess the Rule of Law isn't what it used to be.

There's nothing illegal about shorting a stock. In fact, it's a well-respected financial practice.

Manipulating a stock by spreading false information IS illegal. However, there is no evidence that this has occurred.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

The bottom line with AAPL currently is blah sentiment. Unless that changes, it'll be a back and forth in the $400s. Nothing much can change that except for real news.

Or financial analysts who start thinking with their brains rather than their intestines.

At today's price, Apple is trading at a cash-adjusted forward P/E ratio of below 7 - well below half of the average stock on the market. Since the average stock is, well, average, Apple would have to be truly horrible to earn that P/E ratio. And when you consider an upcoming $60 B share buyback which will lower the P/E ratio by another point or so, the current price is ridiculous.
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Gatorguy 5/31/13
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Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #45 of 70
Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post
My opinions are just that, opinions.  Nobody should be dumb enough to believe an internet forum post is the truth.

 

Then don't bother posting.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #46 of 70

Well you can add me to that list of short-sellers, I've made a hefty profit by doing it, so if someone want's to spank me it's okay, really I don't mind, my handy number is 00414178******* 1tongue.gif. I didn't know the stock was going to fall this much, I bought stock last April when it was near it's lowest point then sold again 20 points up. This month though it seemed like the stock wouldn't stop dropping so I chimed in and shorted 150 shares. I had a stop order in for 400 but canceled it and moved it down a few more ticks to 380. Don't worry though Apple will probably get their money back later this year when the Mac Pro is released, well some of it anyway. The rest will go towards shoes but I'll stick a Apple sticker on them to honor the company that paid for them. I don't think I should be posting after a glass of wine.


Edited by Relic - 6/26/13 at 10:17am
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post #47 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Nonsense.

 

Then you better arrest me, I bought fuzzy handcuffs just for the occasion.

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post #48 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Relic View Post

Then you better arrest me, I bought fuzzy handcuffs just for the occasion.

With the money you got from shorting the stock! Ah, that's a good one.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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post #49 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

What do you mean by "number of shares owned by Apple" -- Apple does not own any of its own shares, afaik?

 

I think he might be talking about the Restricted Stocks.

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post #50 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Then don't bother posting.

Yea, because were all idiots here, you sure told him. Wait....what? 1biggrin.gif

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post #51 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


With the money you got from shorting the stock! Ah, that's a good one.

Yea, I got the real nice ones with the rhinestones, so it's ribbed for her pleasure.


Edited by Relic - 6/26/13 at 12:59pm
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post #52 of 70

I'd like everyone's input on this because I'm confused. Every where I look I cannot find any info regarding how many shares appl has bought back up to this point. With a 60 billion dollar buy back you would think that appl could offset the shorts buy simply buying back 2 billion dollars worth of stock every month for the next 30 months. Would that have a huge influence of the stock price? So the question on my mind is if appl isn't buying back its shares right now, why? What are they waiting for? With appl's volume being very low each day, 11-12 million shares being traded each day over the last few days...it seems to me that appl could be doing more in this regard to hold up its stock price...any thoughts on this out there? Care to elaborate some?

post #53 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by skleiniv View Post

I'd like everyone's input on this because I'm confused. Every where I look I cannot find any info regarding how many shares appl has bought back up to this point. With a 60 billion dollar buy back you would think that appl could offset the shorts buy simply buying back 2 billion dollars worth of stock every month for the next 30 months. Would that have a huge influence of the stock price? So the question on my mind is if appl isn't buying back its shares right now, why? What are they waiting for? With appl's volume being very low each day, 11-12 million shares being traded each day over the last few days...it seems to me that appl could be doing more in this regard to hold up its stock price...any thoughts on this out there? Care to elaborate some?

 

  1. http://articles.latimes.com/2013/apr/24/business/la-fi-apple-earnings-20130424
  2. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1452981-apple-share-buyback-the-numbers-talk
  3. http://www.economist.com/news/business/21576729-biggest-single-share-buy-back-history-will-not-solve-apples-problems-tim-cooks-cash-card
  4. http://www.afr.com/p/technology/apple_announces_biggest_share_buy_9KMXPOJ19ObHAe11o7GkNK
  5. Google
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post #54 of 70

My guess is the worst senario is that Apple has been buying back stock.  I have now lost more than I have made with apple, which is my fault, but the incompetency of apple management since Jobs death  is without precedent IMOHO.  If they have paid over one dollar to anyone to communicate with stock holders they wasted their money. Management has been targeting a customer base that is too small and it shows in the drop from 700 to below 400.  Why no social expansion like Netflix to put apple in the living room? And all of this with no reassurance to stock holders that there is a chance for any turn around.   Cook selling all those apple shares at $413 didn't help matters either - talk about unresponsive management.

post #55 of 70

I bought more shares today.  You know last week I decided to give up my unlimited data with verizon to get a new phone to sell on ebay.  I took at look at what I would net buying and selling a samsung galaxy s4 and thought wow I'm going to get a lot!  Then out of curiousity, I tried running the numbers with the iphone 5 and it wasn't even close, the iphone 5 (which costs me the same) would sell for more.

 

I really don't worry that much that after the release of the next round of products from apple the stock will jump right back up.  It is way undervalued IMO.  The customer loyalty they have is insane.  I read an article last night (sorry don't have the link) that someone did a survey about brand loyalty.  90% of apple users said they planned on buying the next apple device, and only a small percentage said they would consider switching to android or some other OS.  With android, there were many more users willing to jump ship to something else (including apple).  

post #56 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by LotAhype View Post

the incompetency of apple management since Jobs death  is without precedent IMOHO.  Management has been targeting a customer base that is too small and it shows in the drop from 700 to below 400.

It was below $400 when Tim took over.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LotAhype View Post

Why no social expansion like Netflix to put apple in the living room? And all of this with no reassurance to stock holders that there is a chance for any turn around.

A turn around from what? They made the same profit last quarter as Exxon ($9.5b). They keep switching places as the most valuable companies in the world. Samsung profit is at $6.4b, Microsoft is at $6b, PetroChina $5.8b, Berkshire Hathaway is at $4.9b, Google $3.4b, Amazon $0.08b.

Currently Apple's and Exxon's market caps are around the same, as are their profits so that would suggest the current valuation is fairly accurate and very high. Apple can certainly move into more growth markets and Netflix could be a good move but Netflix's profit last quarter was $3m (would have been $19m ignoring debt), which isn't going to change their $9.5b much.

There was an article recently about Apple changing the way they deal with iPhone replacements:

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/06/03/apple-now-repairing-iphone-5-screens-in-store-as-part-of-applecare-overhaul

This could add a decent amount to their earnings. But really, people should stop expecting the stock price to go back to $700. Apple would have to nearly double their profits for that to be an accurate valuation.

There's a share buyback of $60 billion by the end of 2015. Outstanding shares would go down by ~150m. If the market cap stayed at the point it's at now, that means by 2015, it can hit $470.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/06/19/warren-buffetts-simple-advice-about-apple-stock/

They should buy back the shares when they are low.

They're looking at something to do with television. If a TV set came about before 2015, that can push earnings up 10% so $517 by 2015 would be reasonable.

It's not a high growth stock any more and people need to come to terms with that.
post #57 of 70

Its P/E is like 9.5.  At $700 it would be around 16.5.  There's nothing crazy about that.  Microsoft is sitting at almost 18 p/e.  Unless you think Apple is the next blackberry and will lose their entire customer base you should be buying!

post #58 of 70
post #59 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by paladyr View Post

Its P/E is like 9.5.  At $700 it would be around 16.5.  There's nothing crazy about that.  Microsoft is sitting at almost 18 p/e.  Unless you think Apple is the next blackberry and will lose their entire customer base you should be buying!

Exxon's P/E is even lower though and their stock price hasn't gone higher than it was 6 years ago (their P/E was around the same back then). Amazon's P/E is over 3,000 (was over 100 back then):

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11808032/1/amazons-pe-of-3000-the-ultimate-buy-signal.html

but their stock price went up 3x in the same period. If you just look at ratios and figure out company value from that, you're just going to get landed with stock that changes very little and be complaining the whole time.

Ultimately, the value that AAPL is trading at is going to have to be based on how traders perceive the future profitability of the company. The only way for it to go up is if Apple somehow increases earnings considerably or rather does something that makes traders think their profitability will go up. There isn't an easy way for them to do that because they already sustain the best margins in the whole industry.

Amazon makes a lot of revenue and has a strong infrastructure so some think that means that if they just fiddle with the margins, it'll be worthwhile owning.

The question to answer would be what do you think Apple will do in a few years that will make them more profitable than they are today? If your answer is that they'll come out with the next big thing and you don't know what it is yet then you're probably better off not buying the stock now. You need to have a more certain answer than that. The mobile phone market was the biggest market and it's done. The tablet is second for the simple reason that fewer people need a tablet than they need a phone and they typically aren't subsidized with subscriptions.

The tablet market is likely to be similar to the PC market of 350m units per year and Apple will probably be at around 80 million this year. If you assume they'll maintain 50% marketshare, they can grow the iPad units by double to match the iPhone units until it saturates and that can increase company profitability around 20%. Their margins dropped quite a lot already.

I think the best way to look at Apple now is as an industry giant like Microsoft, not as a startup. Microsoft is not likely to do anything new for the reason that they wouldn't know what to do if it smacked them in the face. I think Apple isn't likely to do anything new that's major for the reason that there's nothing major left for them to do. They put a multi-touch unix OS in my pocket, there is no other place on my person they can put a unix OS that would benefit me more.

If the price tops $500, it's still worthwhile for some people buying around $400 but it depends on what growth rate people want. I think some people are waiting for another growth explosion like the iPhone brought about without thinking about what other product has a potential market of 1 billion units a year that allows a unit price of $500+.

Of course, if they did come out with a new product like a TV, that might fool investors for a short time but it would crash down again once they saw the shipment volumes.
post #60 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by skleiniv View Post


Absolutely none of these links provide any insight into how many shares of apple stock the company has bought back!

That's fine I will never spend time researching a question for you again. In fact, your on my ignore list. Ungrateful little ...... irked.gif

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post #61 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Relic View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by skleiniv View Post

Absolutely none of these links provide any insight into how many shares of apple stock the company has bought back!
That's fine I will never spend time researching a question for you again. In fact, your on my ignore list. Ungrateful little ...... irked.gif

It doesn't look like they've done a huge buyback yet. They still have 940m outstanding shares. I'm sure Tim said they'd done $10b already. The above article concerning Buffet said:

"per an April filing with the SEC, the first 4 million shares of Apple stock that were bought back were bought at an average price of $478"

That's only $2b. I think their outstanding shares were around 946m at one point. The number should eventually fall to ~790m outstanding.

http://www.macnn.com/articles/12/10/02/offsets.shares.given.to.employees.in.lieu.of.cash/

"As previously announced back in March 2012, Apple has now (Oct 2012) launched its plan to buy back some $10 billion in stock as a way to offset the shares it has awarded to executives and senior personnel. The purchase plan spans three years and, although technically underway, is controlled by the discretion of the board, which will determine the best times in the coming 36 months in which to buy stock and in what quantities."

They increased the buyback to $60b this year.

It might seem counter-intuitive but what would be best for remaining stockholders is to try and drive the price as low as possible for the buyback because Apple will be buying shares back below their intrinsic value and they'll be able to buy back more of them, which will further increase the value of the remaining shares... so, do we think Apple is doomed? Samsung seems to be doing alright. Hey, maybe Windows tablets will take off. Oh, and Google might be doing a games console - that's some trouble for Apple right there. Apple hasn't even said they're going to do that but Google is rumoured to be planning to out-innovate the rumour of Apple's plans by doing it first (and thereby copying them, in advance. It's know as anticipatory plagiarism). Yeah, everyone who's not in on this scheme should totally sell.
post #62 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

Oh, and Google might be doing a games console - that's some trouble for Apple right there. Apple hasn't even said they're going to do that but Google is rumoured to be planning to out-innovate the rumour of Apple's plans by doing it first (and thereby copying them, in advance. It's know as anticipatory plagiarism). Yeah, everyone who's not in on this scheme should totally sell.

 

Considering there's already an Android game console on the market (Ouya), I think it's safe to say if Google is copying anyone, it's not Apple.  You can also build your own, with an Android TV box and Xbox controller (yes it works!).  

post #63 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by paladyr View Post

Its P/E is like 9.5.  At $700 it would be around 16.5.  There's nothing crazy about that.  Microsoft is sitting at almost 18 p/e.  Unless you think Apple is the next blackberry and will lose their entire customer base you should be buying!

 

A P/E of 9.5 is about average for a 'mature' company.  Nothing crazy about it.  

 

If Microsoft eliminated their dividend, their P/E would drop like a rock to ~6...  Right now their value is bolstered by their very generous dividend payout.  

post #64 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

 

Considering there's already an Android game console on the market (Ouya), I think it's safe to say if Google is copying anyone, it's not Apple.  You can also build your own, with an Android TV box and Xbox controller (yes it works!).  


I'm certain there was sarcasm in his post. You responded to one of the few people on here with a sense of humor.

post #65 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmm View Post


I'm certain there was sarcasm in his post. You responded to one of the few people on here with a sense of humor.

Yes, my bad...  Not used to that around here.

post #66 of 70
aapl is a dog. P/E ratios, market cap and margins don't mean shit.

If you purchased $5,000 worth of aapl and amzn at the beginning of 2013, today, July 11th, your aapl stock would be worth $3,888 (22% loss), your amzn would be $5817 (16% gain).

There are plenty of other stocks that will give you much better returns.
Using the same scenario as above, if you bought tsla, it would be worth $17,857. scty, $17,916. Both over 255% gains. spwr $20,833 with 316% gains.
All of these are young, growing companies, considered the best in their fields.

At today's price $427, how high does aapl have to go to get you 250% gains? $1494. What's the likelihood of that ever happening and how long would it take? It took just 7 months for those other stocks.

So why are you still holding aapl? $3.05 dividend every 3 months? That's a sucker bet.

No matter what type of media...movies, music, books, photos and web pages

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look better and sound better on the Kindle Fire HD and HDX than any iPad

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post #67 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Russell View Post

aapl is a dog. P/E ratios, market cap and margins don't mean shit.

If you purchased $5,000 worth of aapl and amzn at the beginning of 2013, today, July 11th, your aapl stock would be worth $3,888 (22% loss), your amzn would be $5817 (16% gain).

There are plenty of other stocks that will give you much better returns.
Using the same scenario as above, if you bought tsla, it would be worth $17,857. scty, $17,916. Both over 255% gains. spwr $20,833 with 316% gains.
All of these are young, growing companies, considered the best in their fields.

At today's price $427, how high does aapl have to go to get you 250% gains? $1494. What's the likelihood of that ever happening and how long would it take? It took just 7 months for those other stocks.

So why are you still holding aapl? $3.05 dividend every 3 months? That's a sucker bet.

 

If you buy TSLA you're not going to be getting 255% gains any time soon.  Their run up was because of short sellers covering combined with some buying after their recent good news.  They're overvalued though - right now Tesla has around the same market cap as Tata Motors -  a company which is among the most successful Indian car companies, and also owns Jaguar/Land Rover.  

 

You can't just look at past gains to determine future gains.  Personally, I'm not particularly bullish on AAPL or TSLA, not short term anyway.  TSLA has had its short term run, it'll likely move sideways or slightly down for the immediate future.  AAPL needs some sort of catalyst, or it will stay range bound for awhile.  

 

The truth is, you can make money or lose money on any stock, short or long.  It's all about timing and patience, and an understanding of supply/demand dynamics.  Also, brass balls...

post #68 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

Considering there's already an Android game console on the market (Ouya), I think it's safe to say if Google is copying anyone, it's not Apple.

You do realize that just because a device runs Android doesn't necessarily mean it's owned by Google, right.
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post #69 of 70

Hi All,

 

I am doing a value pitch presentation on Apple next week. Do you guys know if there are any presentations that has been done recently (by hedge funds or by the company) that I can use to bounce some ideas off?

 

Thanks!

post #70 of 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Relic View Post


You do realize that just because a device runs Android doesn't necessarily mean it's owned by Google, right.

 

No, I thought Google owns the world.  Since I'm visiting this website in Chrome, Google owns my ThinkPad too...  They own the Linux kernel too, right?

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