Originally Posted by hill60
The thing is there is no specific data from Samsung stating x% of the phones we sell ship are larger than y", making the argument that Apple needs to compete with a larger screen a fallacious one, usually biased by the misconception that ALL the phones that Samsung (and others) sell ship are high end and have large screens.
1) Drop the sales/shipment thing if you want to be taken seriously. Apple also reports shipments as sales, and there have been plenty of quarters when their end user sales are millions less than their reported sales (and vice versa).
The only time that sales/shipment differences have any meaning is if a product is a total dud at the outset and shipments have to be returned. Otherwise every company... including Apple... goes through an initial inventory fill with great sales the first few days, and lowered sales after that.
For example, check out why China iPhone revenue was down $2.2 billion dollars between quarters last year. According to Cook, it was due to unsold-to-end-user units from the previous quarter sales that were just filling up retailer inventories. Of course, they had bragged about all those (retailer) sales during that previous quarter. That's what companies do.
For both companies, this difference between "sales/shipments" to retailers and sales to end users even out over time. Otherwise, we'd see the sales drop off over quarters.
2) You're right that some people misconceive that all Samsung's sales are high end. Likewise, there are many people who mistakenly go the other way and think they're mostly low end. Both mistaken notions ignore the middle. Also, it's very common for articles to only include the latest Galaxy in the "high end" sales counts, which is also incorrect. Not only do they leave out the Notes (which are very high end with their Wacom digitizers), but they ignore the earlier GS models that are still being sold.
I've been over this before, and it looks like easily 1/4 to 1/3 (or more) of Samsung's sales are high end devices.
3) As for screen size, we can never know consumer desires exactly unless a manufacturer put out the exact same device, at the exact same price, in two different sizes. However, we can look at the fact that Samsung's high end / large screen sales are pretty darned good.
Another example. Taking 1Q2013 UK figures ( I added the screen sizes) ..
We see that just the top ten touchscreen sales for all phones (including Apple's) were:
So at least 39% of all smartphones sold in the UK that quarter were 4" or larger. (No doubt there are more that did not make the top ten, such as the Note).
Including the Note, we can guess that at least 20% of all UK sales were 4.3" or above. And certainly if Apple had a larger screen, some sales would go into this category as well.
Is that a majority? No way. Still, is that many sales a good enough submarket for Apple to go after? That's the question.
Edited by KDarling - 5/31/13 at 6:49am