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Apple's 500M user accounts second only to Facebook, viewed as key driver of future growth

post #1 of 51
Thread Starter 
Apple's current account base of 500 million users is growing and spending at a tremendous rate, suggesting to one analyst that new services such as mobile payments or streaming radio could be key to the company's future growth.

Morgan Stanley


Apple's half-billion registered users with active credit cards one of the largest and fastest growing bases among technology companies. In fact, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley, Apple is only second to Facebook in total number of user accounts as of 2012.

The 500 million active Apple accounts are more than double the 200 million active users registered with online retailer Facebook. In 2012 alone, Apple saw its account base grow an estimated 55 percent.

Morgan Stanley


In terms of revenue per account, Morgan Stanley found that Apple generates an average of $329 per user, which puts it in first place among technology companies, ahead of Amazon's $305 per account, and well ahead of eBay's third-place $125.

And analyst Katy Huberty expects that Apple will reach 600 million users with active Apple IDs this year, extending its lead over rival platforms such as Amazon. She believes that rather than owning content or apps, Apple will instead roll out new platforms that, in the same vein as iTunes and the App Store, leverage content from others.

Morgan Stanley


As for potential ways Apple could monetize its large user base, she believes mobile e-wallet payments could be tied to existing credit card accounts registered with iTunes and the App Store. But instead, those cards could be used with an iPhone to authorize purchases at brick-and-mortar stores, in place of a physical credit card.

She sees the potential inclusion of a fingerprint sensor in Apple's next iPhone, a feature that has been rumored since the company's purchase of AuthenTec, as a step that could set the stage for e-wallet payments on the iPhone.Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty believes Apple could generate more than a billion dollars per year with an "iRadio" service through its current install base.

Another potential use of Apple's existing customer base is a new streaming music service ??something the company is also rumored to be working on. This week it was reported that Apple has inked a deal with Warner Music Group for its so-called "iRadio," setting the stage for the launch of a Pandora-like streaming service as soon as next week's Worldwide Developers Conference.

With its current user base of 500 million, Apple could generate as much as a billion dollars of annualized revenue through an "iRadio" service, Huberty estimates. Her figures are based on the assumption that penetration of iRadio would range from 40 percent of the install base (which is how many current Apple users are registered with Game Center), and 50 percent (which is how many have iCloud accounts).

Pandora's revenue per user in 2012, excluding audio ads, was $4.42. Using a similar figure, if 40 percent of Apple's current install base were to adopt iRadio, it would generate $883 million in revenue per year, while a 50 percent penetration would mean $1.1 billion.

Finally, Huberty also suggested that Apple could leverage its existing iAd platform to create an ad exchange service. This could allow developers to charge higher rates than for ad impressions on other, non-Apple devices.

"Users benefit from potentially lower pricing for apps and services if developers make some of their money from ads," she said. "The ad experience could also be a lot better as the design and relevancy of ads improve. They could become more tasteful (like fashion magazines) rather than annoying (many ads in Web browsers)."

Morgan Stanley has maintained its $540 price target for AAPL stock, but its "bull case" scenario, with a price target of $670, reflects upside potential from new services.
post #2 of 51

Google has more right?  No?  GMail users and others must  be more. Isn't it? Am I missing something? 1rolleyes.gif

post #3 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chandra69 View Post

Google has more right?  No?  GMail users and others must  be more. Isn't it? Am I missing something? 1rolleyes.gif

I think they are only counting accounts with credit cards.

post #4 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chandra69 View Post

Google has more right?  No?  GMail users and others must  be more. Isn't it? Am I missing something? 1rolleyes.gif

 

Well google play accounts should be in there.  imo they are not because they didnt had the numbers.

post #5 of 51
I impressed by Amazon's 'Revenue per Account' number.
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post #6 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

I think they are only counting accounts with credit cards.

Facebook doesn't have accounts linked to credit cards and they specifically mention FB.

Think about how staggering that number is...500 MILLION, linked to credit cards. Wow
post #7 of 51
Originally Posted by ascii View Post
I think they are only counting accounts with credit cards.

 

Then who's to say Apple doesn't have more than Facebook?

 

Imagine if Facebook required a credit card! I'm sure they will eventually. Microtransations to use their features and talk to your "friends".

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post #8 of 51
I'm kinda curious how they define an "active" account for each of the services? And Apple has been bragging about how many "accounts with credit cards" they have for several years now. Steve Jobs mentioned it in several key notes and press events before his passing.
post #9 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post


Facebook doesn't have accounts linked to credit cards and they specifically mention FB.

Think about how staggering that number is...500 MILLION, linked to credit cards. Wow

 

Hope they have really good security on that database!
post #10 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chandra69 View Post

Google has more right?  No?  GMail users and others must  be more. Isn't it? Am I missing something? 1rolleyes.gif

 

Reality is a bitch sometimes. Seems like the "analysts" are suddenly finding reasons for Apple to not be doomed after all. And remember, most of Google's services are so-called "free." The article is clearly referencing accounts that generate income.

post #11 of 51
But yet Apple is always considered a doomed company. Why? Because Apple's iPhone doesn't have the the biggest display or it doesn't have the highest megapixel camera or because it doesn't have a quad-core processor. It doesn't have an OS with all the bells and whistles that Android OS has. These are the things that the analysts and hedge fund managers claim Apple needs to stay relevant. Things like customer loyalty and hundreds of retail stores don't mean anything to Wall Street. They think Apple is only as good as the specs of their products.

Some noteworthy facts: Apple has been downgraded many times by analysts from banks that have needed to be bailed out by the federal government. Apple is worth far more than Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Credit Suisse or any number of banks and brokerage houses combined. However, those analysts are always willing to tell Apple how to run its company. They're always happy to prognosticate about how Apple is going fail if they don't do such and such. They sternly warn investors about what Apple needs to do about growth while their own companies are not as sound as Apple is.

Analysts love to scare investors about how Apple is going to collapse overnight because Apple has lost global market share to Samsung over the past year. I suppose the analysts actually believe all of Apple's customer base will just pull all their credit card accounts because iPhones don't have large displays. I honestly don't think consumers' minds work like that at all. I don't believe Apple's customer base exists merely because of iPhone specifications as analysts would have you believe. Wall Street doesn't believe in things like consumer loyalty or trust are worth anything which really leaves Apple shareholders in the lurch.
post #12 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

I impressed by Amazon's 'Revenue per Account' number.

 

I wouldn't trust this number for Amazon or for Apple.  It appears that all they did was divide Amazon's 2012 total revenue of $61 billion by the 200 million accounts to come up with $305 revenue per account.  This presumes that ever dollar of revenue was generated only by these accounts which isn't the case.  Amazon has quite a significant business as a cloud computing solution and who knows what other revenue sources that also wouldn't come from these user accounts.  

 

If the same lazy math was used for Apple then their figures could be significantly off as well.  As a small example you have billions of dollars worth of Apple peripherals alone that could be purchased at Amazon, Walmart or even the Apple store which add to Apple's revenue but don't need to be tied to a user account.

post #13 of 51

I've said this all along. People are underestimating how much of an asset having that many customers with credit cards really is. If Apple introduces iRadio (a pay version) or any other service they have an advantage of a large user base of potential people that could sign up with just one click. Apple is also big enough that when the mobile device landscape finally settles down they will continue to have enough users to remain sustainable and highly profitable.

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post #14 of 51
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Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

But yet Apple is always considered a doomed company. Why? Because ...

...someone here made it up once in a post and others liked reusing it as a lazy way to dismiss less-than-flattering viewpoints or articles. No knowledgable blog, news article or opinion piece ever said that AFAIK.
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post #15 of 51

I have more accounts than I can remember, all tied to credit cards. Remember that apple will not let you eliminate an account. On the other hand, Amazon, etc. will let you eliminate an account so I would expect smaller numbers for those who allow this. Don't know what the numbers mean???? but let's not confuse the analysts (who also do not know what the numbers mean) What would we do without analysts to come up with all these meaningless numbers? 

post #16 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

 

Reality is a bitch sometimes. Seems like the "analysts" are suddenly finding reasons for Apple to not be doomed after all. And remember, most of Google's services are so-called "free." The article is clearly referencing accounts that generate income.

But then what about the one billion people who watch YouTube videos each month generating income for Google?

http://www.youtube.com/yt/press/statistics.html

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post #17 of 51
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Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

...someone here made it up once in a post and others liked reusing it as a lazy way to dismiss less-than-flattering viewpoints or articles. No knowledgable blog, news article or opinion piece ever said that AFAIK.

The term doomed may be hyperbole used here that hasn't been used by news sites writing anti-Apple articles, but it's a single word that sums up half the articles written about Apple. I bet you can't go a day without some major outlet posting an article or blog about how Apple has lost their mojo, how the magic is gone, how repeated missteps are killing their user base, how supply chain issues are rampant, how people have no faith in their products, how Apple has not products in the pipeline, how it was so much better under Steve Jobs, how nothing has come out since Tim Cook took over, and on and on and on and on… The simplest way to sum up all these doom and gloom stories is simply: Apple is Doomed™!!!!!




edit: typos.
Edited by SolipsismX - 6/4/13 at 8:15am

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post #18 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


The term doomed may be hyperbole used here that hasn't been used by news sites writing anti-Apple articles, but it's a single word that sums up half the articles written about Apple. I bet you can't go a day without some major outlet posting an article or blog about how Apple has lost their mojo, how the magic is gone, how repeated missteps are milling their user base, how supply chain issues are rampant, how people have no faith in their products, how Apple has not products in the pipeline, how it was so much better under Steve Jobs, how nothing has come out since Tim Cook took over, and on and on and on and on… The simplest way to sum up all these doom and gloom stories is simply: Apple is Doomed™!!!!!

You are right about this....just wait until after the WWDC and then you will see all the negative press about what Apple should have done and how they should have done it....

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post #19 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


The 500 million active Apple accounts are more than double the 200 million active users registered with online retailer Facebook

 

What can I buy at Facebook?

 

Can you buy friends there?  ;-)

post #20 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

 

What can I buy at Facebook?

 

Can you buy friends there?  ;-)

lol...if you have the money......you can buy anything anywhere.....

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post #21 of 51
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Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

What can I buy at Facebook?

Can you buy friends there?  ;-)

FaceBook charges you to buy back your personal information¡ Oddly, the require a credit card and two forms of ID to do it¡



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post #22 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

I impressed by Amazon's 'Revenue per Account' number.

Are you sure "impressed" is the right word?

 

Did you look at cash flows per account? 1rolleyes.gif

post #23 of 51

Apple has no need to monetize its users. The fact that it does not do so, compared to the fly-bys like FB, is what makes it stand out for the long haul.

 

The company simply needs to focus on producing the world's greatest computing/entertainment hardware and software. Thankfully, that's what it's doing.

post #24 of 51

People need to be clear that you do not need a credit card on file with Apple to create an account.

 

Still, there's probably little doubt that the metric here is very good for Apple. The margin for online Apple purchases is very good. Definitely much better than Amazon's.This is undoubtedly a very undervalued component of Apple's business by the market.

post #25 of 51

Wonder how many people use iMessage.

Wonder how many photographs are uploaded to iCloud.

 

Apple has all the underpinnings of a massive social network if they so choose. The network is made up of iPhones, iPod Touches, Macs and even iTunes on Windows. Even if Apple never builds a truly integrated social network out of this, I wonder if and when the value of this will be reflected in the stock price.

post #26 of 51

LOL at Netflix's cash flow per account.

 

I wish Apple would by a stake of Netflix (basically buying blue sky and mind share, that's all the stock's trading on anyway) and bankroll it. 

 

Netflix also needs a tiered pricing strategy, say charging $12.99 for PREMIUM access to their best shows, or something similar. It's way too cheap. And the regular account needs to be $9.99... you think the mental difference between $7.99 and $9.99 is that big? Maybe it would even out that cash flow.

post #27 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Apple has no need to monetize its users. ...

 

The company simply needs to focus on producing the world's greatest computing/entertainment hardware and software. Thankfully, that's what it's doing.

 

Agree

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

The fact that it does not do so, compared to the fly-bys like FB, is what makes it stand out for the long haul.

 

Don't agree that FB is a fly-by. It will evolve but I think it's here to stay. To wit, the recent protest mounted by parents groups forced FB to toughen its policy on screening misogynistic images and posts but there was no talk whatsoever of boycotting FB. All the talk about teenagers abandoning FB comes from analysts in their 40s and 50s (the same analysts who claim Apple is out for teens), while teenagers continue to use FB as their primary social medium.

 

Regardless, I am also wholeheartedly thankful that Apple's business plan is different. Having said that, as I mentioned above, they have a virtual social network that is not reflected in their market cap.

post #28 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast View Post

LOL at Netflix's cash flow per account.

 

I wish Apple would by a stake of Netflix (basically buying blue sky and mind share, that's all the stock's trading on anyway) and bankroll it. 

 

Netflix also needs a tiered pricing strategy, say charging $12.99 for PREMIUM access to their best shows, or something similar. It's way too cheap. And the regular account needs to be $9.99... you think the mental difference between $7.99 and $9.99 is that big? Maybe it would even out that cash flow.

Does Netflix need a sugar daddy?

post #29 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post

Does Netflix need a sugar daddy?

 

Yep.

 

Their main problem is lack of cash for content deals. 

post #30 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Imagine if Facebook required a credit card! I'm sure they will eventually. Microtransations to use their features and talk to your "friends".

Shut up with your false concern.

Note: can you not delete this again as it didn't violate any forum rules. Additionally- you have made the exact same response to other forum members- 2 times in 4 days. Lets not be a Hippocrate.

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post #31 of 51
Huberty uses to make good analysis. This seems not to be the case. If you count every sale from third parties through Amazon, as revenues by Amazon, and then compare that with revenues of others, you obtain a misleading number. Amazon could be retailing the products of the whole world, but profiting an infinitesimal part of that revenue, which is what matters, at the end of the day.
In the same way, in case of Apple, 500m accounts * 329= 165billion. So she is counting every dollar collected by Apple sales as a benefit obtained by the registered accounts (even the many duplicated ones...)
To have a useful number, she should be comparing revenues obtained by the accounts themselves on online retailing. In case of Apple: itunes, appstore. You would get still an impresive figure, but very far from the $329 she states as "average account revenue". Even so, a correct study may lead to the conclusion that Apple is the highest "profit per user" of online retail. That alone should show how absurd is the current P/E of both aapl, and amzn or nflx on the other hand.
post #32 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post


Shut up with your false concern.

Note: can you not delete this again as it didn't violate any forum rules. Additionally- you have made the exact same response to other forum members- 2 times in 4 days. Lets not be a Hippocrate.

I have been saying he does this for quite some time....he deletes posts that disagree with his PoV....or that make him look bad.....


Edited by geekdad - 6/4/13 at 11:09am

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"Eventually Google will have their Afghanistan with Oracle and collapse"

"The future is Apple, Google, and a third company that hasn't yet been created."


 


 

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post #33 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post

Shut up with your false concern.

Note: can you not delete this again as it didn't violate any forum rules. Additionally- you have made the exact same response to other forum members- 2 times in 4 days. Lets not be a Hippocrate.

Ok, I really did lol here. Well played...
post #34 of 51
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post
Shut up with your false concern.

 

Hey, I thought I replied to this already? It was sarcasm, man. "I apologize for not putting an emoticon after it." I'd think an idea that stupid would have been obvious as sarcasm.


Note: can you not delete this again as it didn't violate any forum rules.

 

I don't know why it was deleted. I didn't delete it. I agree that there was nothing wrong with poking fun at the false concern trolls.


Additionally- you have made the exact same response to other forum members- 2 times in 4 days.

 

Because they were idiot trolls using actual false concern to push their moronic agenda. You can't say that what they said was legitimate concern.


Originally Posted by geekdad View Post
I have been saying he does this for quite some time....he deletes posts that disagree with his PoV....or that make him look bad.....

 

Shut up and go away.

 

(that's funny.)

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post #35 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

But yet Apple is always considered a doomed company. Why? Because Apple's iPhone doesn't have the the biggest display or it doesn't have the highest megapixel camera or because it doesn't have a quad-core processor. It doesn't have an OS with all the bells and whistles that Android OS has. These are the things that the analysts and hedge fund managers claim Apple needs to stay relevant. Things like customer loyalty and hundreds of retail stores don't mean anything to Wall Street. They think Apple is only as good as the specs of their products.

Some noteworthy facts: Apple has been downgraded many times by analysts from banks that have needed to be bailed out by the federal government. Apple is worth far more than Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Credit Suisse or any number of banks and brokerage houses combined. However, those analysts are always willing to tell Apple how to run its company. They're always happy to prognosticate about how Apple is going fail if they don't do such and such. They sternly warn investors about what Apple needs to do about growth while their own companies are not as sound as Apple is.

Analysts love to scare investors about how Apple is going to collapse overnight because Apple has lost global market share to Samsung over the past year. I suppose the analysts actually believe all of Apple's customer base will just pull all their credit card accounts because iPhones don't have large displays. I honestly don't think consumers' minds work like that at all. I don't believe Apple's customer base exists merely because of iPhone specifications as analysts would have you believe. Wall Street doesn't believe in things like consumer loyalty or trust are worth anything which really leaves Apple shareholders in the lurch.

 

I think the stock is in for rebound. Assuming they maintain EPS, it should be at $500.  On the fundamentals side, if Apple surprise or show sign of growth, its could rebound violently. Stock bottoms happens when everyone is giving up and when expectations are low. We are there.

 

Look at the following video: I am more on the Carter side that the fundamental guy, and I am fundamental investor.

http://goo.gl/zt1s0

 

This is interesting :

http://goo.gl/P9gpW

 

I think there is still a good chance Apple will come up with a good line up of product cycles and at least maintain its EPS. Throw in a new product or multiple NEW iphones models (which is there core business income wise) and we could be back on track to growth. they could also land China mobile in second half of 2013.


Edited by herbapou - 6/4/13 at 11:29am
post #36 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by decondo View Post

I have more accounts than I can remember, all tied to credit cards. Remember that apple will not let you eliminate an account. On the other hand, Amazon, etc. will let you eliminate an account so I would expect smaller numbers for those who allow this. Don't know what the numbers mean???? but let's not confuse the analysts (who also do not know what the numbers mean) What would we do without analysts to come up with all these meaningless numbers? 

 

Apple's numbers aren't just a count of all accounts ever opened, but active accounts; any account that's been used in the past 90 days. After which they expire.

 

The reason you cannot completely delete an account is because anything you purchased from the store under that account would forever be completely useless as that is how your apps, movies, etc. are all signed. It's a safeguard for people that don't realize what they're doing.

 

And actually very few services will ever completely delete your account, if anything they may anonymize it and keep it for audit, statistical or other purposes.

Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #37 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Hey, I thought I replied to this already? It was sarcasm, man. "I apologize for not putting an emoticon after it." I'd think an idea that stupid would have been obvious as sarcasm.

 

I don't know why it was deleted. I didn't delete it. I agree that there was nothing wrong with poking fun at the false concern trolls.

 

Because they were idiot trolls using actual false concern to push their moronic agenda. You can't say that what they said was legitimate concern.

 

 

Shut up and go away.

 

(that's funny.)

Shut up moronic control freak. You were busted again! Caught deleting a post....again! Hypocrite! (oh funny)

(now....thats funny! :-) )

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"Eventually Google will have their Afghanistan with Oracle and collapse"

"The future is Apple, Google, and a third company that hasn't yet been created."


 


 

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Tallest Skil:


"Eventually Google will have their Afghanistan with Oracle and collapse"

"The future is Apple, Google, and a third company that hasn't yet been created."


 


 

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post #38 of 51
Originally Posted by geekdad View Post
Shut up moronic control freak. You were busted again! Caught deleting a post....again! Hypocrite!

 

You'd stake your account on that, would you?


Think carefully. Think very carefully.

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post #39 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

You'd stake your account on that, would you?


Think carefully. Think very carefully.

if you didn't do it then someone is covering for you.......Stake your reputation on it? What about your account? Are you a moderator? Have a second account here? Pretty easy to do.....work in the background.....I just created a Moderator feed back thread in the wel Feedback forum....guess what its gone. The moderators here on AI have never told I was doing something wrong..... Are you threatening me?Just so we are clear....if I disagree with you you are somehow going to ban me?

Tallest Skil:


"Eventually Google will have their Afghanistan with Oracle and collapse"

"The future is Apple, Google, and a third company that hasn't yet been created."


 


 

Reply

Tallest Skil:


"Eventually Google will have their Afghanistan with Oracle and collapse"

"The future is Apple, Google, and a third company that hasn't yet been created."


 


 

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post #40 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by geekdad View Post

But then what about the one billion people who watch YouTube videos each month generating income for Google?

http://www.youtube.com/yt/press/statistics.html

I wasn't aware that I had to pay Google to watch videos on YouTube. I thought it was free. I guess I was wrong. 

 

Google's 2012 revenue... $50 billion

 

Apple's 2012 revenue... $146 billion

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