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After crowning Samsung as Apple's heir, analysts now rethinking their math - Page 2

post #41 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
People are so focused on the unfinished UI but the little we can glean from those under NDA suggest developers are really stoked about iOS 7. Apple has a lot more cards to play and this fall should very be interesting.

 

I am faintly amused by people *quite literally* judging an OS by it's colours.  There's a crap-tonne of overhaul under the hood too, and this is where the war is won.

post #42 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

I was hoping for evidence that Samsung didn't actually sell the 10 million phones in the first month, but there was none.  Calling shipments anything but sales only rings true when the shipments have to be returned.  There is no evidence of that whatsoever.

No, just common sense.

When you release a new model and report only the shipments of that model, it will always overstate sales. Samsung shipped 10 M to the channel. Some of those were sold and some remained in inventory. As long as the number in inventory was greater than zero, then the sales figure is less than the shipments figure.

Apple, OTOH, reports sales of all iPhone models combined. The iPhone has been around long enough to have reached a reasonably steady inventory level. So sales are roughly equal to shipments.

Granted, people make too big of a deal of that difference, but in this case, it's real.

The article says that the analysts are basing their views on data as it becomes available - not that this article is providing the data. While I don't believe much of anything that analysts say, if they do have data, it would be interesting.

Not to mention that iPhone sales were from 9 countries while S4 sales were from 60, of course.
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post #43 of 136
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Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post


I don't need to learn any facts.  What I'm pointing out is that SHIPPED DOES MEAN SOLD unless returns are made.

Please stop spouting nonsense. Learn a bit before mouthing off. You can translate 'shipped' to 'sold' only if you know what the channel inventory is. Apple is the only company to provide channel inventory info.

Incidentally, it is now becoming increasingly obvious why your paymasters at Samsung are embarrassed to provide data on volumes sold. I've been saying this for many months now -- despite troll FUD from people like you -- and it looks like reality is finally coming home to roost.
post #44 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


What manufacturer ships something to someone if they haven't purchased it.

 

It's called consignment. 

post #45 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Please stop spouting nonsense. Learn a bit before mouthing off. u can translate 'shipped' to 'sold' only if you know what the channel inventory is. Apple is the only company to provide channel inventory info.

Incidentally, it is now becoming increasingly obvious why your paymasters at Samsung are embarrassed to provide data on volumes sold. I've been saying this for many months now -- despite troll FUD from people like you -- and it looks like reality is finally coming home to roost.

It could very well be embarrassing but it is also difficult for them to know the exact numbers of devices sold to end users. How many mom and pop cell phone stores are there in the 60 countries that have Samsung devices on their shelves? Do you think that they report back to Samsung how many devices they've sold? There needs to be terms to differentiate sales, because for instance a iPhone is actually sold 3 times to reach the end user. Foxconn sells them to Apple, Apple sells them to the carriers, and the carriers sell them to the end user. The second point of sale is labeled 'shipped' whereas the third point of sale is 'sold'.
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post #46 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by boriscleto View Post

It's called consignment. 

Yes but do you think Samsung gives their devices on 'consignment' to the multitude of small cell phone stores littered throughout the world?
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post #47 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

 

I don't need to learn any facts.  What I'm pointing out is that SHIPPED DOES MEAN SOLD unless returns are made.

 

Okay, so let's try that another way...

 

Shipped = sold - returns

 

ML shipped 28m units.  How many were returned?  As it's a digital download, safe to say ≈ 0.  ∴ Sales ≈ 28m

 

Galaxy S4 shipped 10m units.  How many were/will be returned?  Unknown.  2-5m?  ∴ Sales < 10m and may be < 5m

post #48 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

It could very well be embarrassing but it is also difficult for them to know the exact numbers of devices sold to end users. How many mom and pop cell phone stores are there in the 60 countries that have Samsung devices on their shelves? Do you think that they report back to Samsung how many devices they've sold? There needs to be terms to differentiate sales, because for instance a iPhone is actually sold 3 times to reach the end user. Foxconn sells them to Apple, Apple sells them to the carriers, and the carriers sell them to the end user. The second point of sale is labeled 'shipped' whereas the third point of sale is 'sold'.

Another silly, talking-points post.

Samsung coud easily report volumes shipped, for starters. They know how many handsets left their factory gates. Why don't they do that?

And if needed, channel inventory can be easily estimated using an appropriate sample of retailers, with well-known (and accepted) sampling and estimation techniques. In any event, I doubt that a lot of 'small' retailers sell a lot of high-end smartphones.
post #49 of 136
Quote:

Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

...

 

I take it that most of those copies weren't sales. /s ...

 

 

Note is original post with the "/s" tag.

Quote:

Quote: Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post
 

I was hoping for evidence that Samsung didn't actually sell the 10 million phones in the first month, but there was none.  Calling shipments anything but sales only rings true when the shipments have to be returned.  There is no evidence of that whatsoever.

 

Speaking of shipped versus sold, did anyone else notice that Tim Cook announced SHIPMENTS of Mountain Lion in the keynote?  It's at 16:20 if anyone wants to go look.  I take it that most of those copies weren't sales.  Here, let me spare you the effort:

 

Originally Posted by zeromeus View Post
 

Apple's definition of SHIPPED means SOLD.  Apple SOLD 28 million copies of Mountain Lion because in order for Mountain Lion to be SHIPPED, it has to be purchased through the Mac App store.  Physical copies of Mountain Lion wasn't available to anyone except maybe institutions who needed the physical media to upgrade their systems through volume licensing.  In any case, Apple didn't ship 28 million copies to sit on shelves.  They actually "shipped" their Mountain Lion through their app store.

 

Take some notes and learn your fact before you start talking non-sense. 

 

And now note how it was edited in your post WITHOUT the "/s" tag.

post #50 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by stuffe View Post

"In contrast, Apple sold 37.4 million iPhones in the most recent Q2 ending in March, beating Wall Street's institutional consensus of 35.86 million"

 

However, it was below the independent consensus of 38.13 million. 

 

Apple also noted that their overall inventory channel had increased by 1 million.  Take away that extra stuffing and sales were closer to the major analysts' estimates.

 

As for Samsung, next quarter's earnings report will give us better clues as to what's happening this quarter, same as with Apple.

post #51 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Another silly, talking-points post.

Samsung coud easily report volumes shipped, for starters. They know how many handsets left their factory gates. Why don't they do that?

And if needed, channel inventory can be easily estimated using an appropriate sample of retailers, with well-known (and accepted) sampling and estimation techniques. In any event, I doubt that a lot of 'small' retailers sell a lot of high-end smartphones.

You're right a lot of small retailers don't sell a lot of high end smartphones but there are a lot of small retailers selling a few high end smartphones and across 60 countries they add up.
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post #52 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Another silly, talking-points post.

Samsung coud easily report volumes shipped, for starters. They know how many handsets left their factory gates. Why don't they do that?

And if needed, channel inventory can be easily estimated using an appropriate sample of retailers, with well-known (and accepted) sampling and estimation techniques. In any event, I doubt that a lot of 'small' retailers sell a lot of high-end smartphones.

You're right a lot of small retailers don't sell a lot of high end smartphones but there are a lot of small retailers selling a few high end smartphones and across 60 countries they add up.

I see that you assiduously avoided answering my question in para 2.

'A lot of small retailers.... that add up.' In other words, a wild guess. Could be right, could be wrong. Do you know?
post #53 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

 

Jesus, there was a /s after that sentence.  It was sarcastic.  Shipped equals sold for any company any time anywhere.  Shipped only means something different when returns are made.

 

Samsung numbers are based on # of units in the retail chain whether sold to an end user or not.  Apple numbers are based on a consumer actually buying the device and using it.  There is a BIG difference between the 2.

post #54 of 136

IMO, the main issue is that Samsung is releasing too many models of smartphones, so soon.

 

It has only been 9 months since the release of the S3 phone. Many people who bought one still have a long way to go with regards to fulfilling their 2-year contract. They are not going to fork out a hefty recontracting fee to switch over. 

 

I think Apple nailed the right timeline. Focus on making one great phone once a year, and there will be no shortage of consumers whose contracts are up when you release yours. 

post #55 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

I was hoping for evidence that Samsung didn't actually sell the 10 million phones in the first month, but there was none.  Calling shipments anything but sales only rings true when the shipments have to be returned.  There is no evidence of that whatsoever.

Speaking of shipped versus sold, did anyone else notice that Tim Cook announced SHIPMENTS of Mountain Lion in the keynote?  It's at 16:20 if anyone wants to go look.  I take it that most of those copies weren't sales. /s

Here, let me spare you the effort:




Additionally, there are many manufacturers you can pick on for a lack of updates, but Samsung shouldn't be one of them.  Even the Galaxy S2 is running Jellybean.

Finally, I think it's fair to say that Samsung copied aspects of iOS early on, but it's laughable to say that they would have to copy iOS 7 (unless you're only talking about the appearance of it) since Apple borrowed so much from Android in its update.

As Mountain Lion had to be bought before it could be downloaded, and could only be downloaded from the Mac AppStore, shipment does equal sold in this case. Maybe extreme cases of selling on memory stick from an Apple store, but again sold to consume.
post #56 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zinthar View Post

This is actually worrying news for Apple as well, IMO. Pretty much every premium smartphone released in the past year has failed to live up to the sales expectations of Wall Street. In the case of Apple, the surprising story has been how much the iPhone 4 and 4S at lower price points have cannibalized sales that likely would otherwise have been iPhone 5 sales -- for many customers, having an iOS smartphone with excellent build quality is all they needed; the extra speed and features of the iPhone 5 weren't enough fro them to spend more for it.

I suspect that Samsung is finding that many of its customers are opting for the price-reduced Galaxy S3 instead. Or the market for high-end Android will no longer accept cheap build quality and has opted for the HTC One.

Or, perhaps most likely, many smartphone customers aren't bothering to upgrade when their contracts are up because their current phone works well enough and they're waiting until the day that they drop their phone in the toilet to use the upgrade pricing.

Although most people on this site, including myself, would never trade away LTE or the speed and extra screen size of the iPhone 5 for a $100-200 discount on an older model, we're the minority of consumers.

When the 5S and cheap plastic iPhone are released, I think Apple will discontinue the iPhone 4, 4S, & 5 altogether and force consumers to choose either the premium build of the 5S, or a plastic iPhone if they want the free with subsidy option.
I think you just like to worry. :-)

Bottom Line: Apple completely dominates the smartphone market, especially at the high end. True the market is getting saturated at the top, but if rumours are to be believed, they've been working on a mid to low market solution for at least a year and a half now whereas Samsung presumably has no such plan.

If I played the market, I would buy Apple stock.
post #57 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I see that you assiduously avoided answering my question in para 2.

'A lot of small retailers.... that add up.' In other words, a wild guess. Could be right, could be wrong. Do you know?

I can't answer a question I don't know the answer to, but I should've stated that before. Samsung knows how many devices were shipped/sold to the small retailers but would probably have to take a wild guess as to how many they actually sold to end users. Ultimately my point is that Apple deals with much less retailers than Samsung making it easier for them to get accurate end user sales numbers. Compared to Apple's numbers Samsung's numbers are embarrassing but compare Samsung's numbers to those of Motorola, HTC, LG, etc... and let's see who's embarrassed.
Edited by dasanman69 - 6/17/13 at 6:45am
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post #58 of 136
Samsung deserves the losses. It can continue to sell its smartphones. But losses will pile up.

By taking the high end, Apple will still take the lion's share of the profits.
post #59 of 136
Last year Samsung claimed they had pre-orders of 9 million for the GS3. Fandroids were claiming that's how many customers pre-ordered when it turned out to be carrier orders. It took Samsung 55 days to hit 10 million, and the GS3 averaged 5 million per month for most of 2012 (except the holiday quarter when the iPhone 5 came out).

Funny how you can have orders for 9 million but still take 55 days to hit 10 million. /S

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post #60 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by icoco3 View Post

Samsung numbers are based on # of units in the retail chain whether sold to an end user or not.  Apple numbers are based on a consumer actually buying the device and using it.  There is a BIG difference between the 2.
That might be the case when they report initial weekend sales but other than that don't Apple's sales also include those to resellers like AT&T and Verzion? I think the bigger point is Apple consistently provides sales figures whereas other companies only do so when they feel like it or the numbers make them look good. Microsoft, for instance, reported Windows 8 sales figures but have yet to tell us how many Surface RT or Pro tablets they've sold. In the case of Samsung I have to believe they know how many phones were built and shipped - either direct to consumers or to resellers. That wouldn't necessarily tell us how many were sold but would give us a good idea.
post #61 of 136
Actually for Samsung, shipped means simply shipped and not sold because they don't share their sales activity readily whereas for Apple, they will only talk about shipped when it equates to sales.

Samsung in this case shipped tons of phones, but everyone had to guess at their sales and assumed well they beat expectations last year, they must do the same this year... this is a dangerous game to play especially with other people's money.
post #62 of 136
Actually, in the case of Samsung and others, based on their history, shipped does NOT mean sold. They have frequently touted "shipped" numbers early on, only for "sold" numbers to fall short...sometimes drastically short.

And as someone else pointed out, with Mountain Lion it actually, literally DOES mean sold because there is no physical product that sits on store shelves waiting to be purchased. If a copy of Mountain Lion shipped it was ONLY because it was either purchased and paid for on the Mac App Store or it shipped with a newly purchased and paid for Mac. Period. With Samsung, or Blackberry phones, you ship product to a retailer and then hope that customers buy them.

That makes a difference. Couple that with the news that the Galaxy S4 *sales* numbers are falling short of expectations and you get the pictures.
post #63 of 136

Actually, I think the big loser here is Google.  Why? Google bought Motorola for its patents and phone designers (but mostly for the patents) and was to come out with a super duper iPhone killer (the pundits always post that lead-in about every new smart phone).  Correct me if I'm wrong but Google hasn't released a new super duper phone.  The problem now is that unless the phone is truly innovative it will be released into a saturated market and Google's entry into high-end phones will be hailed at first but will then fall flat when the numbers come out. Depending on how the pundits spin it, it may be ignored or Google's bubble will be popped.

post #64 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Samsung's problem is I don't think people really have an emotional attachment to them. For some people, they just hate all things Apple and since Samsung is Apple's biggest competitor they go with Samsung. But I don't think the brand loyalty is there. And for a lot of people the S4 probably wasn't different enough to justify the upgrade. This is why I'm glad Apple seems to be moving in the direction of having the software really utilize the power of the hardware, so having more powerful hardware actually does matter. People are so focused on the unfinished UI but the little we can glean from those under NDA suggest developers are really stoked about iOS 7. Apple has a lot more cards to play and this fall should very be interesting.

 

Bingo.

 

Samsung isnt gaining any loyality.  Samsung is gaining early adopters who want the latest & greatest.. and Samsung is able to attract those people by the huge portfolio and a constant stream of "next big thing" announcements.  I know people who bought the Galaxy Nexus, then the S3, then the Note2.. and were considering the S4 or Note3 but they are simply tired of buying a new smartphone every 6 months.  

 

The problem is.. all of the devices pretty much perform exactly the same way.. providing the exact same user experience for 99% of its operations.  Yes one may have a slightly bigger 0.3" screen or perform a little faster.. but the experience is nearly identical.  There comes a point where you simply cannot continuing to chase the "next big thing", because the the next big thing simply does what you already have.  Continuing to offer products that are a "little bit" bigger & faster can only get you so far.

 

While Apple suffers from this problem too (especially the iPhone & iPad).  They have an entire range of products that work different, but together and share all of your information in the same ecosystem.  They have entry products which are like their form of a gateway drug.  Once you get used to using an iPod, you want an iPhone.  Once you get used to using an iPhone, you want an iPad.  Once you get used to using an iPad.. you want a Macbook.. and so-on.  This is where they differ from Samsung, once you get use to using an S3.. do you really crave other non-phone items Samsung has to offer?  With the exception of a Samsung 65" LED HDTV.. there's simply not much in the Samsung catalog I'm interested in other than their phone announcements.

 

6 years ago I didnt have a single Apple product in my home.  A 128mb Creative Labs mp3 player was given to me as a Christmas gift.  I began using it as a tool to help motivate me during my workouts but because increasingly frustrated with it.  Since the majority of the people in the gym were using iPods, I decided to give the 4GB iPod Nano a try and I've been hooked ever since.  The iPod lead to me buying the iPhone.  The iPhone lead to me Macbook Pro.  The Macbook Pro lead to me buying the Extreme router.  And to fast forward to now.. I currently own an Apple 4thG iPod, iPhone5, iPad2, Macbook Air, (2) Extreme routers and (4) AppleTVs.  

post #65 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by webweasel View Post

 

Okay, so let's try that another way...

 

Shipped = sold - returns

 

 

Much as I hate to jump into the fray on this argument, I just gotta say... I think that math is a bit screwed up.

post #66 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by abazigal View Post

IMO, the main issue is that Samsung is releasing too many models of smartphones, so soon.

 

It has only been 9 months since the release of the S3 phone. Many people who bought one still have a long way to go with regards to fulfilling their 2-year contract. They are not going to fork out a hefty recontracting fee to switch over. 

 

I think Apple nailed the right timeline. Focus on making one great phone once a year, and there will be no shortage of consumers whose contracts are up when you release yours. 

 

Bingo!

post #67 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

 

No, DED, I am well aware that Mountain Lion was only sold as a digital copy.  That's how I got my upgrade and why I advised my mom not to worry about her MBA lacking a CD drive.  My point was sarcastic.  Shipped means sold.

 

The hobbyist platform thing was absurd the first time you used it and still is.  The only hobbyists developing it are the devs making custom ROMs.  Anyway, as far as iOS taking ideas from Android and Windows, it absolutely did.  I hate to use the word "stealing" because that implies malicious intent, and I don't think that using others' ideas as a stepping stone to something of your own is malicious.  Rather it's a necessary part of progress.  These are some articles you might want to reference with regards to Apple's stepping stones:

 

http://www.infoworld.com/d/consumerization-of-it/yes-ios-7-copies-windows-phone-and-android-get-used-it-220644

 

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2013/06/apple_ios_7_will_borrowing_ideas_from_microsoft_help_apple_destroy_the_smartphone.html

 

http://www.eweek.com/mobile/apples-ios-7-buys-time-with-ideas-borrowed-from-other-mobile-platforms/

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2013/06/11/an-open-letter-from-android-to-ios-7/

 

http://www.droid-life.com/2013/06/10/ios7-vs-android-a-quick-comparison-after-the-wwdc-keynote/

Those articles you quote are amusingly unconvincing.

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post #68 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeaEarleGreyHot View Post

Much as I hate to jump into the fray on this argument, I just gotta say... I think that math is a bit screwed up.

I agree, I would have it more like sold = shipped-(remaining stock +returns)
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post #69 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

 

I didn't say all of their phones got the update.  Maybe buy a high end model next time?  I don't know what else to tell you.

 

How many features of iOS 7 are missing on your 4?

You, like many others, try very hard to make people forget al the very crappy phones Samsung ships. You intentionally tried obscure the crappy nature of their product by pointing only to the S4. You got called on it and tried to backtrack. Lame.

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post #70 of 136

Why would it be any more difficult for Samsung to get sales figures from their reseller partners?

post #71 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zinthar View Post

This is actually worrying news for Apple as well, IMO. Pretty much every premium smartphone released in the past year has failed to live up to the sales expectations of Wall Street. In the case of Apple, the surprising story has been how much the iPhone 4 and 4S at lower price points have cannibalized sales that likely would otherwise have been iPhone 5 sales -- for many customers, having an iOS smartphone with excellent build quality is all they needed; the extra speed and features of the iPhone 5 weren't enough fro them to spend more for it. 

 

 

The expectations of Wall Street, as this article shows, is generally pure manipulation. Further, if the market gets something so blatantly wrong, why is the company punished? Apple provides guidance. If it makes the guidance or beats it, Wall Street should be discredited for over shooting. Moreover, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S are doing well in Countries like India and China where cost is a big issue. Some places in the world require you to buy the phone in full. 

 

Apple and Samsung also report different numbers, but the Street treats them the same. Apple reports actual sells to real people, Samsung reports units shipped to retailors. Big difference, and Samsung has shown it is willing to distort the difference to its advantage (e.g. when it reported it sold millions of tablets, but later reported only a couple hundred thousand people actually bought them at that point). 

post #72 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by abazigal View Post

IMO, the main issue is that Samsung is releasing too many models of smartphones, so soon.

 

It has only been 9 months since the release of the S3 phone. Many people who bought one still have a long way to go with regards to fulfilling their 2-year contract. They are not going to fork out a hefty recontracting fee to switch over. 

 

I think Apple nailed the right timeline. Focus on making one great phone once a year, and there will be no shortage of consumers whose contracts are up when you release yours. 

 

I do not doubt it is an issue, but I am not sure it is the main issue.  

 

Samsung also releases budget models, as do other Android makers.  Even the budget devices are starting to have very nice features and processors in them, so there's not as much value in an Android phone with a high price tag.  My guess is cheaper, lower priced devices will begin to dominate Android more and more.  Most people I know with Android phones got them because they were cheap and they didn't want to spend $200 on a phone.  If you're looking at a phone for $99, nearly every option is an Android device.  People buying on basis of price have very little brand loyalty.  They get what looks like the best deal, and Galaxy S4 just looks overpriced when on a shelf next to all the cheaper Android devices.

 

Apple, on the other hand, has a loyal following of customers that usually are willing to spend for the upgrade, and since their "cheap" phones are usually their older phones, and many people want the new models.  Not to mention that everyone knows Apple products cost more because they're Apple.  Plus, Apple tends to find a way to add something fairly significant to every device.  Whether it is an groundbreaking innovation or something other devices did first, you can't argue that Apple gives customers  a reason to buy the newer model.  It may not always impress critics, but customers keep coming back for more.

post #73 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

 

Jesus, there was a /s after that sentence.  It was sarcastic.  Shipped equals sold for any company any time anywhere.  Shipped only means something different when returns are made.

Shipped does not equal sold.  Especially in this case.

 

With Mountain Lion, you could purchase it once and download it to all of your machines.  I have four machines, so that's one sale and four SHIPPED copies.  Also, if you purchased a Mac somewhere around a month previous to the release of ML you were allowed a free download.

 

The same was true about Lion.

 

Shipped means SHIPPED.  It does NOT mean SOLD.  I don't really see what's so hard to understand.

 

I'm also curious if they included copies SHIPPED on new Macs, but in the end it is rather irrelevant.

 

This thread is getting absolutely absurd...

post #74 of 136
I think the good enough factor has definitely started to happen in smart phones. Apple is unique in their planning and thinking about this problem. They have always expected this to happen and they have a whole playbook of new features to add to the iPhone which will help to continue to differentiate the iPhone from Android and make the iPhone stickier. Skating to where the puck is going to be is the plan and has been since 2001. People complain about how Apple lets new tech trickle out in a managed process rather than throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks. This called good management, and it is surprisingly rare in big business.
post #75 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by patrickwalker View Post

Why would it be any more difficult for Samsung to get sales figures from their reseller partners?

Because they deal with many more than Apple does, many being of the mom and pop variety.
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post #76 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


I can't answer a question I don't know the answer to, but I should've stated that before. Samsung knows how many devices were shipped/sold to the small retailers but would probably have to take a wild guess as to how many they actually sold to end users. Ultimately my point is that Apple deals with much less retailers than Samsung making it easier for them to get accurate end user sales numbers. Compared to Apple's numbers Samsung's numbers are embarrassing but compare Samsung's numbers to those of Motorola, HTC, LG, etc... and let's see who's embarrassed.

 

 

It is not hard to do.  There are different sets of data available. For your own stores, you know how much you sold. Large stores like Walmart have live inventory control. Executive can look at any point and time and see how much inventory of any given product is available. Other stores likely have similar systems. The stores probably makes this information (at least concerning their own products) available to partners. This is how they know when to order more product. Apple also knows when somebody is registering a new phone. Companies like Apple probably also get activation numbers of new phone from carriers, which is likely a good estimation of how many phones were sold. 

post #77 of 136
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Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


Because they deal with many more than Apple does, many being of the mom and pop variety.

 

 

Samsung does not need to get the actual sales numbers, it can go by carrier activations for certain models. Apple is not likely reporting actual sales either, but is probably using a statistical model to estimate actual sales (e.g. sales at its own stores, carrier activations, registrations, etc.). 

post #78 of 136
post #79 of 136
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Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

If I played the market, I would buy Apple stock.
Well, I would wait a little to buy, Apple has lost almost half of their Stock value in the last 9 months. It's down from 705 to 430, 380 in April. I would wait till they release the new 5S to buy again, by then Apple might be at 350 and it would be a great buy at that price.
When I looked up "Ninjas" in Thesaurus.com, it said "Ninja's can't be found" Well played Ninjas, well played.
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When I looked up "Ninjas" in Thesaurus.com, it said "Ninja's can't be found" Well played Ninjas, well played.
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post #80 of 136
You guys are way over thinking this. There are two channels for shipping. One to end users directly and one to resellers. The bulk of Apple's channels are direct to end users.

If something is shipped to an end user, it is SOLD.
If something is shipped to a reseller, it is just shipped (not sold since the reseller would sell the item). Although Samsung may get a profit at that point, it's meaningless if it never ends up in an end users hands.

Samsung relies more on 3rd party resellers like Best Buy, Target, Walmart, etc., so when they ship 10 million units, this is to stock their 3rd party resellers.
When Apple ships 10 million, almost all of those will be to end users. Some also go to Apple stores, which typically sell out immediately, and a trifle make it to third party resellers, which also sell out immediately. Apple 3rd party resellers are typically are lower priority than direct end users sales and Apple Stores, as those same 3rd party resellers often complain that Apple chokes them out of sales.

As a result, when Samsung says it 'sold' 10 million, it just shipped them to a reseller for resale, but it doesn't mean they ended up in a users hands
The opposite is true for Apple.
iMac 27" 2.8 Quad i7 / 24" Dual Core 3.06 / 17" Macbook Pro Unibody / Mac Mini HTPC / iPhone 4
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iMac 27" 2.8 Quad i7 / 24" Dual Core 3.06 / 17" Macbook Pro Unibody / Mac Mini HTPC / iPhone 4
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  • After crowning Samsung as Apple's heir, analysts now rethinking their math
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