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PC shipments dropped 11% worldwide in Q2, Apple's US growth slows 4.3% [u]

post #1 of 33
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In its latest quarterly report, market research firm Gartner said PC shipments slid 11 percent worldwide for the second quarter of 2013, continuing the longest decline in the market's history.

Update: This article has been updated with estimates from research firm IDC.

During the April to June period, worldwide PC shipments dropped to 76 million units from the same period last year, a decline of 10.9 percent and the fifth consecutive quarter of decline.

According to the firm's statistics, all regions showed decline year-over-year, with the Asia/Pacific region seeing five consecutive negative quarters, while the Europe/Middle East/Asia (EMEA) market tallied its second quarter double-digit fall.

US PC
Source: Gartner


The U.S. market fared better in quarter two than all markets combined, with a decline of only 1.4 percent year-over-year on shipments of 15 million units. That number was good enough for quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.5 percent. Gartner points out that this quarter's decline was less than the past seven quarters.

?Our preliminary results indicate that this reduced market decline was attributed to solid growth in the professional market,? Kitagawa said. ?Three of the major professional PC suppliers, HP, Dell and Lenovo, all registered better than U.S. average growth rate. The end of Windows XP support potentially drove the remaining PC refresh in the U.S. professional market.?

HP managed to hang on to first place with 26.4 percent of the market. The company shipped almost 4 million computers for a slight decline of 0.05 percent year-over-year. Dell was only one of two top-five manufacturers to show positive growth for the quarter, with a 6.4 percent bump on shipments of 3.7 million units. The company now owns 24.6 percent of the U.S. market.

Apple came in a distant third with 11.6 percent of the market, shipping 1.7 million Macs for the quarter to be down 4.3 percent compared to the same quarter in 2012. iPads were not counted as PCs in Gartner's report.

Lenovo saw the largest growth at a whopping 19.7 percent, lifting the company into fourth place overall with a 10.1 percent share of the market.

Worldwide PC
Source: Gartner


The 11 percent worldwide decline had Lenovo out in front by a small margin, with its 12.7 million units shipped reflecting a contraction of 0.6 percent compared to the year previous. HP followed in a close second with nearly 9 million units shipped for a decline of 4.8 percent.

?We are seeing the PC market reduction directly tied to the shrinking installed base of PCs, as inexpensive tablets displace the low-end machines used primarily for consumption in mature and developed markets,? said prniciap Gartner analyst Mikako Kitagawa. ?In emerging markets, inexpensive tablets have become the first computing device for many people, who at best are deferring the purchase of a PC. This is also accounting for the collapse of the mini notebook market.?

IDC US


Research firm IDC has also released its own estimates for the U.S. PC market, and they are a bit different than Gartner's. HP and Dell are still in the lead, though IDC sees HP's numbers dropping substantially year-over-year with a negative 4.3 percent growth rate.

IDC disagrees somewhat in regard to Apple, and found the company saw growth decline only half a percentage point to take 11.5 percent of the market with 1.8 million units shipped.

Finally instead Acer was found to finish in fifth place for the second quarter after a huge 19.5 percent shrinkage in growth, with 900 thousand units shipped.
post #2 of 33
I don't think the decline is simply due to more tablet and smart phones sales. Macs and PC's sold in the last few years are simply still fast enough to do everything anyone needs. Go back a decade and your Mac or PC would simply be out of date far sooner. WIth Macs the switch to Intel made the PPC macs obsolete. But if you have a computer capable of running Mountain Lion or Windows 8 and it does so smoothly there is simply no big incentive or reason to upgrade to a newer computer. People just don't need to upgrade as often as they used to do because their current computers can do everything they ask of them.
post #3 of 33
If they were 12% in 2012 and 11.6% in 2013 wouldn't that be .4% difference?
post #4 of 33

Oh wow, Lenovo seems to be doing good. I really like their laptops, great stuff.

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post #5 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

I don't think the decline is simply due to more tablet and smart phones sales. Macs and PC's sold in the last few years are simply still fast enough to do everything anyone needs.
[...] 

People just don't need to upgrade as often as they used to do because their current computers can do everything they ask of them.

While I agree with you about not upgrading as often, technology usage worldwide for business and education is expanding as the developing world modernizes, sending lots of PCs to first time buyers in Asia and Latin America. I would think this technology expansion should easily offset any decline due to postponed upgrades. Those postponed upgrades may ultimately be permanent due to the contraction of personal desktop computing at home in US, Europe and Japan. This is probably the most significant factor for the decline because PCs are increasingly being supplanted by iPads for light duty computing.

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post #6 of 33
It looks like Timid Cook is going to take a hefty pay-cut come the end of this quarter. He should never have tied his salary to Apple's share performance. That's almost like he was asking for rope so he could hang himself. Apple appears to be going down a slippery slope in core value and there's probably nothing anyone can do about it. Hardware sales don't seem to be cutting it anymore and it's all about search, ads and media content delivery. Maybe Apple will be able to outlast some of the older hardware or less financially-sound companies and be the last man standing. It's rather odd that Microsoft hasn't been affected by the Wintel PC pullback at all. The company's share value seems stronger than ever.
post #7 of 33
Quote:

Apple's US share contracts 4.3%

 

Uhhh, no, Apple's US share contracted 3.3% -- the percentage equivalent of a 0.4 percentage-point drop from 12 percent. Two ways to say it; you missed both.
 

post #8 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

I don't think the decline is simply due to more tablet and smart phones sales. Macs and PC's sold in the last few years are simply still fast enough to do everything anyone needs. Go back a decade and your Mac or PC would simply be out of date far sooner. WIth Macs the switch to Intel made the PPC macs obsolete. But if you have a computer capable of running Mountain Lion or Windows 8 and it does so smoothly there is simply no big incentive or reason to upgrade to a newer computer. People just don't need to upgrade as often as they used to do because their current computers can do everything they ask of them.

Exactly! My 2009 MacBook Pro still does everything I need, especially after HD to SSD replacement.

post #9 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

It looks like Timid Cook is going to take a hefty pay-cut come the end of this quarter. He should never have tied his salary to Apple's share performance. That's almost like he was asking for rope so he could hang himself. Apple appears to be going down a slippery slope in core value and there's probably nothing anyone can do about it. Hardware sales don't seem to be cutting it anymore and it's all about search, ads and media content delivery. Maybe Apple will be able to outlast some of the older hardware or less financially-sound companies and be the last man standing. It's rather odd that Microsoft hasn't been affected by the Wintel PC pullback at all. The company's share value seems stronger than ever.

I wonder what happens if you add iPad sales? As for MS, businesses upgrade every three years. More WinOS sales to them.
post #10 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

I don't think the decline is simply due to more tablet and smart phones sales. Macs and PC's sold in the last few years are simply still fast enough to do everything anyone needs. Go back a decade and your Mac or PC would simply be out of date far sooner. WIth Macs the switch to Intel made the PPC macs obsolete. But if you have a computer capable of running Mountain Lion or Windows 8 and it does so smoothly there is simply no big incentive or reason to upgrade to a newer computer. People just don't need to upgrade as often as they used to do because their current computers can do everything they ask of them.

I agree with you. In addition, I think that reliability, in general, is better (thus reducing common reason to replace computer). I'm in IT since late '80 and I recall having much more issues with RAM and HDDs, relative to number of customers I was in touch with back in the days. Even later on, there were occasional "epidemics" of frequent problems - like bulging capacitors in early to mid 2000, quite common on P4 motherboards from that era. But it is my opinion that quality went uphill from Core 2 introduction, and hasn't dropped since.

I have recently retired my wife's old Toshiba laptop (2006) and old AMD 64 X2 desktop (2005) for hardware problems, but both were used and abused well over 5 years. I still have older AMD 64 single core system and one P4 in use at my home. I wouldn't mind replacing them with something fresher, but the simple truth is that they serve their purposes well and, not being mission critical, I just can't justify replacing them just because... so the money I'd spend on new hardware goes to new camera, PS4 budget, vacation... you name it.
post #11 of 33
Quote:

In emerging markets, inexpensive tablets have become the first computing device for many people, who at best are deferring the purchase of a PC.

 

 

I don't see this as 'deferring' the purchase of a PC, but the new normal for consumption of email, internet, photos, movies, games. 

post #12 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Relic View Post

Oh wow, Lenovo seems to be doing good. I really like their laptops, great stuff.

I have a Thinkpad T520. I think the MacBook Pro Retina is better assembled, better made. And aesthetically more beautiful.

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post #13 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

It looks like Timid Cook is going to take a hefty pay-cut come the end of this quarter. He should never have tied his salary to Apple's share performance. That's almost like he was asking for rope so he could hang himself. Apple appears to be going down a slippery slope in core value and there's probably nothing anyone can do about it. Hardware sales don't seem to be cutting it anymore and it's all about search, ads and media content delivery. Maybe Apple will be able to outlast some of the older hardware or less financially-sound companies and be the last man standing. It's rather odd that Microsoft hasn't been affected by the Wintel PC pullback at all. The company's share value seems stronger than ever.

What tripe.

Again, equating share price with a company's actually performance and health.
post #14 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Relic View Post

Oh wow, Lenovo seems to be doing good. I really like their laptops, great stuff.

 

Businesses love Lenovo.  Some also like Dell (their business computers are way better than their cheap consumer crap).  That's why those two are staying in better shape.  Businesses perform more regular upgrades, so Dell and Lenovo are both in a good position.  The new Mac Pro could help Apple as well.

 

If Apple is interested in seeing a turn around in Mac sales, they need to figure out how to make them more appealing to businesses that typically buy Windows.  Now is a great time to make a move since Windows 8 isn't sitting very well with businesses.  

post #15 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by macroads View Post

If they were 12% in 2012 and 11.6% in 2013 wouldn't that be .4% difference?

No, as there is a difference between percentage points and percentages
post #16 of 33
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post #17 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


I have a Thinkpad T520. I think the MacBook Pro Retina is better assembled, better made. And aesthetically more beautiful.

 

I have a Thinkpad X230T, great little laptop, I get about 20 hours with the external battery slice.
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post #18 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by rednival View Post

If Apple is interested in seeing a turn around in Mac sales, they need to figure out how to make them more appealing to businesses that typically buy Windows.  Now is a great time to make a move since Windows 8 isn't sitting very well with businesses.  

 

I don't know that it matters that Windows 8 is unloved. My employer adopted XP on all PCs and kept it through the whole Vista period, then switched to Windows 7 without ever using Vista. At the moment it looks like we'll skip Windows 8. When we buy new computers, we're putting Windows 7 on them from our master license. Most of our PCs are from Dell, and we don't buy the OS with the computer; they just come empty. 

 

Businesses tend to be pretty conservative about updates. Apple would probably fare better if they facilitated that more. OS X updates more frequently than Windows, and Apple stops bug and security updates sooner for old versions. Microsoft is still committed to supporting XP (4 versions back) until 2014 at the moment; Apple only meaningfully supports the current and previous version of its OS. There's also less backward compatibility. Even iTunes currently requires 10.6.8; is that really necessary?

 

It would probably help simply to be clearer about it. Microsoft has scads of detail about product support lifecycles at http://support.microsoft.com/lifecycle/default.aspx?LN=en-us&x=9&y=10&c2=1173. When you search for appropriate phrases for Apple (try "apple support lifecycle"), you find IT professionals talking to each other in support forums about where to find Apple's policy, and nobody seems to know the answer. Businesses like clear policy statements before they make big commitments.

 

Apple's done better in these regards with its tablets and phones than its computers, and I think that's part of why they're so much more widely adopted by businesses. 

post #19 of 33
See the big picture people. Any contraction for Apple is irrelevant seeing as how they are supplying almost all the tablets that are replacing PCs in this 'post PC era'.
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post #20 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Relic View Post

Oh wow, Lenovo seems to be doing good. I really like their laptops, great stuff.

yeah, we just set up a few IdeaPad U310 (13, i5) and our staff went crazy for them... nice little laptop. Now we testing the ThinkPad 2 for sales people - Lenovo making good stuff.

post #21 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

It looks like Timid Cook is going to take a hefty pay-cut come the end of this quarter. He should never have tied his salary to Apple's share performance. That's almost like he was asking for rope so he could hang himself. Apple appears to be going down a slippery slope in core value and there's probably nothing anyone can do about it. Hardware sales don't seem to be cutting it anymore and it's all about search, ads and media content delivery. Maybe Apple will be able to outlast some of the older hardware or less financially-sound companies and be the last man standing. It's rather odd that Microsoft hasn't been affected by the Wintel PC pullback at all. The company's share value seems stronger than ever.

 

It is quite hard to take seriously the writings of people who use childish expressions such as "Timid Cook."

 

I am sure Tim Cook, having more information about the internal state of Apple is better poised to make a decision regarding his compensation than you are, especially since I believe he has the time horizon to outlast the irrationality of Wall Street.  Look at companies such as Amazon and Netflix, totally overvalued, compare them to Apple which is in my opinion undervalued at the moment.  Sentiment can change very quickly though.  If Apple were valued today at the same P/E as Microsoft, it would be at $750 per share.  I see most of Microsoft's businesses contracting, while Apple's are expanding.

post #22 of 33

I can't get choked up over a mild, temporary, better than industry decline in Mac numbers.

 

The new MBPs will kick it up, and while I would have liked a retina MBA I can understand the emphasis on battery life. I even have a sick fantasy of getting a new Mac Pro and 4K display that I just don't need.

 

Apple has the remainders of the profitable consumer market wrapped up, and time will tell on the Mac Pro. I don't like Apple's extended lull in products, but to the extent there is a future in Macs I feel comfortable with their direction.

post #23 of 33
Apple's positioning as a 'premium' brand means they will continue to loose marketshare as the traditional desktop/laptop market declines. Also, they only recently updated the MacBook Air so this will have little impact on Q2 and they've not upgraded the MacBook Pro or Mac Pro in a while. Fortunately, Apple is still dominant in Smartphones and Tablets, an enviable position that the likes of HP, Dell, and Lenovo wish they had...
post #24 of 33
Quote:

Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

In its latest quarterly report, market research firm Gartner said PC shipments slid 11 percent worldwide for the second quarter of 2013, continuing the longest decline in the market's history.

During the April to June period, worldwide PC shipments dropped to 76 million units from the same period last year, a decline of 10.9 percent and the fifth consecutive quarter of decline.

According to the firm's statistics, all regions showed decline year-over-year, with the Asia/Pacific region seeing five consecutive negative quarters, while the Europe/Middle East/Asia (EMEA) market tallied its second quarter double-digit fall.



?We are seeing the PC market reduction directly tied to the shrinking installed base of PCs, as inexpensive tablets displace the low-end machines used primarily for consumption in mature and developed markets,? said prniciap Gartner analyst Mikako Kitagawa. ?In emerging markets, inexpensive tablets have become the first computing device for many people, who at best are deferring the purchase of a PC. This is also accounting for the collapse of the mini notebook market.?

 

Meanwhile at Microsoft Uncle Fester will be shuffling the deck chairs tomorrow... stay tuned to the program titled, "Men Overboard." Uncle Fester will chum the water in the morning and feed several VPs to the sharks mid-afternoon... who will they be... who will they be...? The only one with guaranteed job security tomorrow is Monkey Boy himself. At least everyone at Microsoft got a new Surface RT to take home last Winter and a dead-end phone running Win 7 the year before. 

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post #25 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by agramonte View Post

yeah, we just set up a few IdeaPad U310 (13, i5) and our staff went crazy for them... nice little laptop. Now we testing the ThinkPad 2 for sales people - Lenovo making good stuff.

 

I'm sure your staff was happy to use something newer than their Radio Shack TRS80s... Giving them Macs may have killed some...better to have dialed it back some. 1wink.gif

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post #26 of 33

While Apple's market share slipped from 12% to 11.6%, those percentages are still some of the highest percentages Apple held ever had in the computer market. 

 

While the article didn't mention it, I think Apple's strongest computer segment of the US market is in its Laptop Computer sales... even if the laptop spends most of its life running Windows. 

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post #27 of 33
The key thing here is that Apple sells and makes a healthy profit on tablets. No-one else does. Apple has a pretty good plan B. Microsoft's 90s and 00s dominance robbed the rest of any chance of making a plan B. This is great news for Apple's future, and very bad news for the rest of the industry's.
post #28 of 33

Whichever way I do it, I can't mathematically reproduce that 4.3%.

 

Could someone either correct the article or correct Gartner please?

post #29 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Research firm IDC has also released its own estimates for the U.S. PC market, and they are a bit different than Gartner's. 

 

Actually, put them next to each other, and they're remarkably the same for the top sellers (see below).

 

It's the different numbers for "Others" and for last year, that cause the difference in "growth percentages".

 

post #30 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by CogitoDexter View Post

Whichever way I do it, I can't mathematically reproduce that 4.3%.

Could someone either correct the article or correct Gartner please?

Part of the problem is that the tables only list numbers to the nearest 0.1%. I believe they use greater precision when doing the calculations.

Of course, that also points out another error. Every single figure has an error margin involved and the changes appear to be well within the error margin, so there's really no measurable change for Apple. And even that doesn't consider the gross errors that occur in something like this - look at the differences between Gartner and IDC results over the past few years, for example.

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post #31 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by CogitoDexter View Post

Whichever way I do it, I can't mathematically reproduce that 4.3%.

 

Could someone either correct the article or correct Gartner please?


Here's my guess:  A 4.3% decline on 1.8 million units shipped translates to a reduction of 77,000.  That can easily be rounded off to the 0.1 million decline cited in the chart.

post #32 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


I wonder what happens if you add iPad sales? As for MS, businesses upgrade every three years. More WinOS sales to them.

 

Not necessarily for WinOS sales - sure they still sell the licenses, but most enterprises and SMEs are still either using XP, or just barely migrating to Windows 7. In fact, I daresay you see more migrations from Server 2003 to 2008 than anything else, OS-wise (note that I intentionally didn't say Server 2010 or 2012...)

 

Now sales of licenses for SQL Server, Exchange, Dynamics (CRM/AX/NAV/Whatever), Sharepoint, and suchlike? That's where they're really raking in the money.

post #33 of 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hudson1 View Post

Here's my guess:  A 4.3% decline on 1.8 million units shipped translates to a reduction of 77,000.  That can easily be rounded off to the 0.1 million decline cited in the chart.

They have to be basing the growth percentage variations on the difference in the units shipped because the bottom chart shows a marketshare increase of 0.1% but a growth decrease of 0.5%. Rounding to the nearest 100k will mean the percentages look off by as much as 5% relative to the rounded shipped units.

These are also estimates and not Apple's numbers. Apple's Fiscal Q3 2013 report that shows Calendar Q2 2013 sales doesn't arrive until July 23rd.

The Gartner data also includes x86 Windows tablets as PCs. I doubt they've sold that many but that's eventually going to skew these results unfairly because the iPad will compete on some level with those. Same deal with x86 Chromebooks, which are less functional than tablets.
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