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Apple predicted to beat market consensus with 29M iPhones shipped in June quarter

post #1 of 41
Thread Starter 
Potential upside in Apple's recently concluded June quarter could be driven by greater-than-expected iPhone shipments, with one analyst predicting that the company beat projections and shipped at least 29 million iPhones.

iPhones
Apple's current iPhone lineup.


Citing demand data from Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker, as well as supply chain checks, analyst Katy Huberty said in a note to investors on Wednesday that she believes stronger-than-anticipated iPhone shipments will drive revenue and earnings per share above market consensus.

Wall Street watchers generally expect that Apple shipped 26.5 million iPhones during the June quarter. But Huberty's data suggests Apple shipped anywhere between 29 million and 32 million smartphones during the three-month frame.

The anticipated strong numbers were largely driven by demand for Apple's discounted legacy smartphones, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S.

Huberty's most conservative estimate, in which all iPhones sold beyond 26 million are the cheapest iPhone 4 sold at a $50 discount, still implies total revenue greater than $36 billion. That would beat Apple's guidance range of $33.5 billion to $35.5 billion for the June quarter, as well as market consensus of $35.1 billion.

Beyond the iPhone, Huberty expects that Apple also shipped 3.9 million Macs and 18 million iPads. That would help Apple push its net earnings per share beyond the $7.32 consensus expectation on the Street.

While Huberty is bullish for Apple's quarterly conference call, which is scheduled for next Tuesday, July 23, she did show some concern for the current September quarter, as, she believes consensus estimates are currently too high. She expects Apple's next iPhone will only be available for "a few days" in the September quarter, which could hold the company's revenue guidance to between $33.5 billion and $35.5 billion, with gross margins in the 34 to 35 percent range.
post #2 of 41
The iPhone 4 is doing a bang up job driving sales.

It's a much better option this year than the 3GS was last year.

My hope is that the rumored low cost iPhone continues the quality and high end appeal of the 4 rather than dipping in quality using lower end materials.
post #3 of 41
"Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.
post #4 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by softeky View Post

"Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.

Go home, softeky.
post #5 of 41
post #6 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post

The iPhone 4 is doing a bang up job driving sales.

It's a much better option this year than the 3GS was last year.

My hope is that the rumored low cost iPhone continues the quality and high end appeal of the 4 rather than dipping in quality using lower end materials.

You'd have to be pretty deluded to think that somehow the new low-cost iPhone is going to be a "dip in quality" in anyway. Its just different, for the purpose of cheaper and more durable.
post #7 of 41

A blip. The analyst is talking utter nonsense. The previous quarter's numbers were inflated by having to meet pent-up demand, that's all.

India is still a longer term market for Apple. They should focus all their attention on China in the next few years, kick Samsung out to India, and then focus on the country five years from now.
post #8 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post

Go home, softeky.

It's a legitimate question. One I'm guessing by your retort that you don't have the answer to but you'll quickly question any Samsung sales numbers.
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post #9 of 41
Quote:
Apple predicted to beat market consensus

And here we go again. When Apple sells 28,999,999 iPhones, the stock goes below $400.
Quote:
Originally Posted by softeky View Post

"Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.

For Apple, shipments are sales in seven days.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #10 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


And here we go again. When Apple sells 28,999,999 iPhones, the stock goes below $400.

This is what I was thinking! Now when they don't meet these analyst expectations, the stock will drop again ...

 

Oh well.

post #11 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

A blip. The analyst is talking utter nonsense. The previous quarter's numbers were inflated by having to meet pent-up demand, that's all.

India is still a longer term market for Apple. They should focus all their attention on China in the next few years, kick Samsung out to India, and then focus on the country five years from now.

India is totally irrelevant for the short term. From jan to march, 120,000 iPhones were sold in India. This has no bearing at all upon the overall iPhone numbers.

An analyst quoted in the article was also criticizing Apple for making the iPhone cheaper in India, which is exactly what I predicted would happen. Apple will be criticized regardless of what they do.
post #12 of 41
And if Apple doesn't make those iPhone numbers, Apple's share price will end up further into the toilet. If Amazon doesn't make it's numbers, the share price takes a quick drop and in a couple of weeks shoots up even higher. Apple ends up as a fairly bad investment because no investors actually have any faith in Apple's future. It's really hard to put any faith in Apple with Timid Cook at the helm.

In any event, the next iPhone will have to have some serious sales to even move Apple's share price in a positive direction. Wall Street continues to think in terms of who has the most powerful smartphone is the winner. I think the Galaxy S4-class smartphone is practically the limit as to what the average consumer needs in terms of hardware. Apple needs to look towards iPhone and iOS refinements and services to hold its market share steady. Wall Street is only interested in huge growth and it's a fool's game.
post #13 of 41

 

So they went from 240k phones to 120k phones.

 

This is HUGE people. HUGE.

 

Apple is DOOMED.

post #14 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Wall Street is... a fool's game.

 

 

This is the most sense you've made in quite a while.

post #15 of 41
So just so I get this:

Apple Shipments = iPhones actually sold to customers.

Other Company Shipments: Smartphones sitting in a warehouse somewhere.

Right?
post #16 of 41
But I just saw today that an analyst reduced their price target. That means Apple is doomed, no?
post #17 of 41
""Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped."

This is not true, though I've heard many pundits on Podcasts say this.

As soon as 'ownership of the device' is transferred to a carrier partner or any retailer, this counts as a sale. This is why Apple also provides a number for 'Channel inventory' showing how many devices are in the channel. The delta in channel inventory is used to derive "Sell through' or the devices which actually ended up in the hands of a user.

So, Apple could still drive up sales by 'stuffing the channel'. However, as noted, Apple turns inventory very well. I would expect the channel to actually start to drain this quarter (making room for the new model plus slower sales in anticipation of a new model by the publc) . Due to this, I think Katy's number is likely too high compared to what will actually be reported as channel inventory will actually drop during the quarter.
post #18 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

It's really hard to put any faith in Apple with Timid Cook at the helm.

Maybe you should shut up and go away, then, huh?
Quote:
Wall Street continues to think in terms of who has the most powerful smartphone is the winner.

No, they don't. Because that's Apple.

Wall Street only cares about perceived sellability. Not sales, and not actual value, but cheap, inefficient crap.
Quote:
Apple needs to look towards iPhone and iOS refinements and services to hold its market share steady.

Really? I never would have guessed. 1oyvey.gif
Quote:
Wall Street is only interested in huge growth and it's a fool's game.

THERE you go! Few more posts like this and your past idiocy will be cured!

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #19 of 41
I believe Apple gross margin will improve to 41-42 % .
post #20 of 41
Not surprisingly the media is running with this 'iPhone sales down 49% in India' story. With the expectation of course that people will just read the headline and thus not see that the actual sales figures (if accurate) are a blip in terms of overall iPhone sales. 1rolleyes.gif
post #21 of 41
This means analysts will raise the consensus to guarantee Apple will miss them to prove their "Apple is doomed" meme.
post #22 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by ombra2105 View Post

So just so I get this:

Apple Shipments = iPhones actually sold to customers.

Other Company Shipments: Smartphones sitting in a warehouse somewhere.

Right?

 

Considering Apple reports actual numbers AND breaks out channel inventory (what is shipped and not sold) AND turns their inventory every 7 days or so, you can't really make a comparison.

 

The whole "ships vs. sold" argument is only really useful when a company releases a new product and then makes some grandiose announcement of how many they shipped to retail stores (often from some unnamed executive or source). This is meant to show "demand" when it really is meaningless as an indicator of how much consumer demand there is for the product. 

 

...then you hear the company report much lower shipments the next quarter, or there are rapid discounts applied. 

post #23 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

A blip. The analyst is talking utter nonsense. The previous quarter's numbers were inflated by having to meet pent-up demand, that's all.

India is still a longer term market for Apple. They should focus all their attention on China in the next few years, kick Samsung out to India, and then focus on the country five years from now.

India is totally irrelevant for the short term. From jan to march, 120,000 iPhones were sold in India. This has no bearing at all upon the overall iPhone numbers.

An analyst quoted in the article was also criticizing Apple for making the iPhone cheaper in India, which is exactly what I predicted would happen. Apple will be criticized regardless of what they do.

The country barely has 3G (let alone 4G). Most smartphones are useless in large parts of India.

post #24 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by softeky View Post

"Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.


apple did not report anything.

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Doodle Dice iPhone puzzle game: A fun, free physics-laden collection of dice games.  Greatest app made yet?  Perhaps young man... Perhaps.
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post #25 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by ombra2105 View Post

So just so I get this:

Apple Shipments = iPhones actually sold to customers.

Other Company Shipments: Smartphones sitting in a warehouse somewhere.

Right?

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by softeky View Post

"Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post

Go home, softeky.

It's a legitimate question. One I'm guessing by your retort that you don't have the answer to but you'll quickly question any Samsung sales numbers.

Everyone reports 'shipments'. However, Apple is the only one that, in addition: (i) provides channel inventory data; and (ii) reports numbers (not just $ figures) shipped. As a result, we can fairly precisely estimate Apple's sales.

 

Based on that information, TS is right: Apple pretty much sells out its shipments.

 

That may or may not be true of others, but we really don't know, since they don't report volumes or channel data. One has to reasonably assume that they don't report because they're embarrassed to admit the number of unsold devices sitting on store shelves.

post #26 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

 

 

Everyone reports 'shipments'. However, Apple is the only one that, in addition: (i) provides channel inventory data; and (ii) reports numbers (not just $ figures) shipped. As a result, we can fairly precisely estimate Apple's sales.

 

Based on that information, TS is right: Apple pretty much sells out its shipments.

 

When you include carrier sales performance guarantees via contract (where the carrier agrees to either sell a minimum of x number of phones or else eat the cost), it's a very safe bet that shipments=sales in Apple's figures, especially since (as noted elsewhere) Apple provides separate channel numbers. The carriers agree to it (among other concessions, such as no nagware/adware, etc) because the iPhone is that much in demand.

 

This is much unlike the, say, Windows Phones, because as a minority player, Microsoft, Nokia, HTC, or etc cannot force such guarantees, and have the opposite problem of having to entice carriers.

post #27 of 41
I expect Apple gross profit improve .
post #28 of 41

Everyone remember that Katy is the 2nd worst Apple analyst:

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/02/17/apple-analysts-earnings-smackdown/

And she has been terrible for a really long time - back in 2009 she was bearish when Apple was at $77/share.

I'm an Apple bull, and have most of my net worth in Apple stock, but having an idiot like Huberty on your side means nothing.

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post #29 of 41

For reference, here are last year numbers:

 

Q3,2012:

iphone: 26

ipad: 17

ipod: 6.7

mac: 4

EPS:  $9.32

gross margins: 42.8%

operating margins: 33.4%

post #30 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Everyone reports 'shipments'. However, Apple is the only one that, in addition: (i) provides channel inventory data; and (ii) reports numbers (not just $ figures) shipped. As a result, we can fairly precisely estimate Apple's sales.

Based on that information, TS is right: Apple pretty much sells out its shipments.

That may or may not be true of others, but we really don't know, since they don't report volumes or channel data. One has to reasonably assume that they don't report because they're embarrassed to admit the number of unsold devices sitting on store shelves.

Thank you, that wasn't that hard, was it?
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #31 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

.... that wasn't that hard, was it?

Wtf are you being snarky about?

post #32 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Everyone reports 'shipments'. However, Apple is the only one that, in addition: (i) provides channel inventory data; and (ii) reports numbers (not just $ figures) shipped. As a result, we can fairly precisely estimate Apple's sales.

Based on that information, TS is right: Apple pretty much sells out its shipments.

That may or may not be true of others, but we really don't know, since they don't report volumes or channel data. One has to reasonably assume that they don't report because they're embarrassed to admit the number of unsold devices sitting on store shelves.

I'm not sure if embarrassed is the right word. I think more accurately, they don't want to report those numbers as it would give a real idea of where they stand and how they're really doing in the market....all of which can only serve to negatively affect them.
post #33 of 41
Personally I'm impressed that Apple's Q3 numbers are bound to be this good considering there has not been 1 single new iOS device since October of 2012.
Excluding the negligible 128 GB iPad.
post #34 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Wtf are you being snarky about?

It's dasanman.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #35 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

But I just saw today that an analyst reduced their price target. That means Apple is doomed, no?

 

No, Apple is not doomed, but AAPL is for till the end of 2013 at least.

post #36 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Wtf are you being snarky about?

It actually wasn't directed at you really, I appreciate you actually answering versus just saying "go away".
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"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
post #37 of 41

Probably aren't taking into consideration the impact of the rumored low cost iPhone is having either in a market like India.

post #38 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by softeky View Post

"Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.

 

Nope.  If you read Apple's quarterly statements and the 'fine print', they consider a sale to be at the point when the product is shipped.  The same as every other hardware company, but with more ambiguous wording...

post #39 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

Nope.  If you read Apple's quarterly statements and the 'fine print', they consider a sale to be at the point when the product is shipped.  The same as every other hardware company, but with more ambiguous wording...

They also estimate channel inventory.

And are more transparent than other competitors, who rarely break out numbers, or just cherry pick data.
post #40 of 41

It's time to expose these 'experts'. PunditTracker lets everyone make predictions on AAPL's earnings, including revenue, EPS, iPhone, and iPad estimates.... let's see how many do better than the Gene Munsters of the world.

 

Use the 'Vote Now' buttons:

http://www.pundittracker.com/pundits/profile/gene-munster

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