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Verizon's sales suggest Apple may have sold 34.7M iPhones in June quarter

post #1 of 31
Thread Starter 
iPhone activation figures from Verizon, the largest carrier in the U.S., suggest that Apple could have sold as many as 34.7 million iPhones in the just-concluded June quarter.

iPhone 5


That estimate was provided to investors on Thursday by analyst Maynard Um of Wells Fargo, who noted that Verizon has accounted, on average, for 11 percent of Apple's total iPhone sales over the last six quarters.

If that average holds true again for concluded June quarter, Verizon's share would mean Apple sold nearly 35 million iPhones during the three-month period. That's well ahead of consensus Wall Street expectations for the quarter, which call for Apple to have shipped about 26.5 million iPhones.

The projected figure is also 8.7 million units higher than Um's own prediction of 26 million iPhone units sold in the June quarter. Market watchers in general have conservative expectations for the quarter, with the flagship iPhone 5 approaching one year of availability.

The conventional thinking is that iPhone sales will have inevitably weakened as consumers begin waiting for Apple's next model before they upgrade. But this year Apple may be seeing particularly strong sales of its legacy handsets, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley suggested earlier this week.

For comparison, Apple shipped 26 million iPhones in the June quarter last year, helping the company earn $28.6 billion in revenue and net profit of $7.3 billion. iPhone sales in the third quarter of 2012 represented a 28 percent year-over-year increase from the same period in 2011.

Apple will reveal its results next Tuesday after markets in the U.S. close. Executives from the company will then participate in a conference call with investors and members of the press beginning at 5 p.m. Eastern, 2 p.m. Pacific. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage.
post #2 of 31

Makes sense, unless we got massive internationnal sale decrease, or if Verizon stole a lot of customers to AT&T. That 11% rule of thumb really seems to worked, last quarter VZ sold 4 millions phones out of the 37 millions. Last year 2.7 millions out of the 26 millions.

 

30 millions or more would be a great number, even if EPS is still down on lower margins.


Edited by herbapou - 7/18/13 at 1:21pm
post #3 of 31
We have one unexpectedly great data point, so let's just assume ALL of the data will be this unexpectedly good! That way, when Apple falls short, we can blame them instead of our own flawed analysis!

I'm so sick of this crap. Just another manipulation so that, no matter what Apple reports next week, it'll fall short of their newly-overhyped expectations.
post #4 of 31
Wait, this can't be true. Isn't Apple already dead in the water? /s
post #5 of 31
Interesting.
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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post #6 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by docwallaby View Post

We have one unexpectedly great data point, so let's just assume ALL of the data will be this unexpectedly good! That way, when Apple falls short, we can blame them instead of our own flawed analysis!

I'm so sick of this crap. Just another manipulation so that, no matter what Apple reports next week, it'll fall short of their newly-overhyped expectations.

 

imo anything above 30 millions will pop the stock hard.  BTW Google is getting slam ATM, bad earnings.

post #7 of 31
I'm sure sales in the US are higher but international sales are probably down.

People in Europe aren't paying $500 for a 2 year old phone.

For us in the US the iPhone 4 is an amazing deal at $0 with 2 year contract. Far more attractive than the 3GS was at that price point last year.
post #8 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by docwallaby View Post

We have one unexpectedly great data point, so let's just assume ALL of the data will be this unexpectedly good! That way, when Apple falls short, we can blame them instead of our own flawed analysis!

I'm so sick of this crap. Just another manipulation so that, no matter what Apple reports next week, it'll fall short of their newly-overhyped expectations.

Yep, analysts hype some large number then act surprised Apple did not beat their consensus guess.
post #9 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

imo anything above 30 millions will pop the stock hard.  BTW Google is getting slam ATM, bad earnings.
And Microsoft is down almost 5% due to Surface write down. Wow. Who knows where they'll end up tomorrow but still a bit of a surprise...
post #10 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by docwallaby View Post

We have one unexpectedly great data point, so let's just assume ALL of the data will be this unexpectedly good! That way, when Apple falls short, we can blame them instead of our own flawed analysis!

I'm so sick of this crap. Just another manipulation so that, no matter what Apple reports next week, it'll fall short of their newly-overhyped expectations.

 

In this particular case, when Verizon's percentage of total iPhone sales has been so consistent over many quarters- I don't think you need to treat it with the same vitriol as most "analysis".  Of course, the percentage could change.  But until it does it's a pretty solid data point.

post #11 of 31

Well, this news is necessary to get the expectations UP, so that the stock can go DOWN when the analysts are now "disappointed" that Apple didn't meet their 34.7 M "expectation."

 

Otherwise everyone would have been surprised, and the stock would have gone UP.

post #12 of 31
Eventually Apples numbers will speak for themselves, for better or for worse
post #13 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

 

imo anything above 30 millions will pop the stock hard.  BTW Google is getting slam ATM, bad earnings.

 

what bad earning?... they made 9.56 a share on 19% growth year over year... but analyst wanted 10.78

 

it is the same BS wallstreet is doing to every Tech company, including Apple - when they do not meet some self-serving expectation.

post #14 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by agramonte View Post

 

what bad earning?... they made 9.56 a share on 19% growth year over year... but analyst wanted 10.78

 

it is the same BS wallstreet is doing to every Tech company, including Apple - when they do not meet some self-serving expectation.

The other aspect of that single hard number I truly do not like is that since it's the average of a spread of estimates the real world number should be compared to the range, not a simplistic single number "average", consensus. In science terms, where's the error bars?

post #15 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by agramonte View Post

 

what bad earning?... they made 9.56 a share on 19% growth year over year... but analyst wanted 10.78

 

it is the same BS wallstreet is doing to every Tech company, including Apple - when they do not meet some self-serving expectation.

 

Yeah, except Google's minions have been slamming Apple for what's now happening to them. Poetic justice, no?

 

When you're on top, the only way to go is down.

post #16 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast View Post

 

Yeah, except Google's minions have been slamming Apple for what's now happening to them. Poetic justice, no?

 

When you're on top, the only way to go is down.

 

that logic makes no sense to me - you better off ignoring the "slamming" if you think the logic in their argument is flawed. Taking it for yourself if it is beneficial at some point in the future just adds to the nonsense.

post #17 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post

The other aspect of that single hard number I truly do not like is that since it's the average of a spread of estimates the real world number should be compared to the range, not a simplistic single number "average", consensus. In science terms, where's the error bars?

I agree that it's misleading that use a simple average. But asking "where's the error bars" is not what one would call science terms :)

 

Ever since Verizon started carrying the iPhone, their % of total iPhone sales have been: 11.3%, 9.1%, 10.4%, 11.5%, 13.0% and 10.7%. Assuming a representation of 13% again, Apple would have shipped 29.5M iPhones last quarter. But if Verizon has dipped down to 9.1% again, Apple's number would be 42.1M. If the consensus estimate of 26.5M is spot on, then Verizon's number would represent 14.4% of the total - a notably larger slice of the pie than they have ever had. So, this time, Katy Huberty might have called it closer than others.

post #18 of 31
But the iPhone is not selling! The smart phone market has matured! Supplier and inside sources show that aapl has cut production by 30%. Android is stealing marketshare in US! I could go on and on but can't think of anything that hasn't been repeated since last September! Oh wait, regardless of how many iPhones are sold the analysts only care about margins. Even though google missed on the top and bottom and missed the last 2 out of 4 people are still screaming 1000/share
post #19 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

I agree that it's misleading that use a simple average. But asking "where's the error bars" is not what one would call science terms 1smile.gif

Ever since Verizon started carrying the iPhone, their % of total iPhone sales have been: 11.3%, 9.1%, 10.4%, 11.5%, 13.0% and 10.7%. Assuming a representation of 13% again, Apple would have shipped 29.5M iPhones last quarter. But if Verizon has dipped down to 9.1% again, Apple's number would be 42.1M. If the consensus estimate of 26.5M is spot on, then Verizon's number would represent 14.4% of the total - a notably larger slice of the pie than they have ever had. So, this time, Katy Huberty might have called it closer than others.

Great post.

I think Verizon's share of iPhone sales, and the US's share of iPhone sales, in general will be far higher than normal.

It seems that the "free" iPhone 4 is driving sales on US carriers and other countries don't have that benefit.

That being the case I think a 13% share for Verizon would be more realistic with the share at AT&T an other US carriers higher as well with international sales declining a bit.

The low cost iPhone can't come soon enough IMO.
post #20 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post


Great post.

I think Verizon's share of iPhone sales, and the US's share of iPhone sales, in general will be far higher than normal.

It seems that the "free" iPhone 4 is driving sales on US carriers and other countries don't have that benefit.

That being the case I think a 13% share for Verizon would be more realistic with the share at AT&T an other US carriers higher as well with international sales declining a bit.

The low cost iPhone can't come soon enough IMO.

Didn't Verizon suggest that half of the iPhone sales are IP5? That would suggest iP5 is selling well, too.

 

I do wonder, if the so-called low cost iP does emerge, would it sell better than iP4 and iP4S? After all, Apple can't go cheaper than free.

post #21 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

Ever since Verizon started carrying the iPhone, their % of total iPhone sales have been: 11.3%, 9.1%, 10.4%, 11.5%, 13.0% and 10.7%.

 

Of course, those percentages are actually comparing two different measurement units... activations and sales.

 

(VZ new iPhone activations + VZ used iPhone activations)  

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(total world new iPhone sales)

 

 

Since the iPhone came out on Verizon in early 2011, then for the past two years, activations have probably been very close to new unit sales.

 

However, starting in 1Q 2013, millions of users came due for an upgrade after two years.  That means for 2Q 2013, we should begin seeing a much higher percentage of activations being done by used devices.

 

--

 

How much higher?  In the past, used device activations on AT&T (who has had the iPhone the longest) have ranged from 11% to over 20% of all activations.

 

If similar, Verizon's reported 3.9 million activations would mean they actually sold between 3.1 and 3.5 million new iPhones.

 

Now, and this is the leap in logic, IF the usual Verizon NEW phone activations = about 11% of new sales continues to hold up, then that would predict total world sales between 28 to 31.5 million.

 

It'll be interesting to see what it really is.

post #22 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

Didn't Verizon suggest that half of the iPhone sales are IP5? That would suggest iP5 is selling well, too.


I do wonder, if the so-called low cost iP does emerge, would it sell better than iP4 and iP4S? After all, Apple can't go cheaper than free.

The low cost iPhone will sell better internationally than the 2 year old iPhone 4.

In the US I would think more than half of new iPhones will still be the high end model as it is today due to the high subsidies from wireless carriers.
post #23 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post


The low cost iPhone will sell better internationally than the 2 year old iPhone 4.
 

 

Why? I'd imagine it'd vary from region to region, particularly since Apple is only offering the free iPhone 4 in a small number of regions.

post #24 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling View Post

 

Of course, those percentages are actually comparing two different measurement units... activations and sales.

 

(VZ new iPhone activations + VZ used iPhone activations)  

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(total world new iPhone sales)

 

 

Since the iPhone came out on Verizon in early 2011, then for the past two years, activations have probably been very close to new unit sales.

 

However, starting in 1Q 2013, millions of users came due for an upgrade after two years.  That means for 2Q 2013, we should begin seeing a much higher percentage of activations being done by used devices.

 

--

 

How much higher?  In the past, used device activations on AT&T (who has had the iPhone the longest) have ranged from 11% to over 20% of all activations.

 

If similar, Verizon's reported 3.9 million activations would mean they actually sold between 3.1 and 3.5 million new iPhones.

 

Now, and this is the leap in logic, IF the usual Verizon NEW phone activations = about 11% of new sales continues to hold up, then that would predict total world sales between 28 to 31.5 million.

 

It'll be interesting to see what it really is.

Very good point, and very important one.

 

But I wasn't aware there were reliable data on activations of used devices.

post #25 of 31
While all the speculation is fun, it would be nice if other companies released numbers.

I'm looking at you Samsung, HTC, LG. Let's free that data into a world of transparency? What are you hiding?
post #26 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

Didn't Verizon suggest that half of the iPhone sales are IP5? That would suggest iP5 is selling well, too.

 

I do wonder, if the so-called low cost iP does emerge, would it sell better than iP4 and iP4S? After all, Apple can't go cheaper than free.

 

50% iP5 vs 4/4s was last quarter.  Not sure if its the same this quarter or not, but I'd imagine it could very well be. The 4/4s are selling very well when given away for free, and the iP5 also gets a huge boost by being given away as a free upgrade.

 

My guess on the cheap iPhone is it will kind of depend on which is 'nicer'... the cheap iPhone or a two year old iPhone 4.  If the cheap phone rivals the 4 it would make more sense for Apple to sell the cheap phone instead and stop the practice of selling old phones.  If the cheap phone cut enough corners that the 4/4s is still nicer- people will pick the nicer phone since its 'free'  In that case the US market would remain pretty much the same, and the cheap phone would only be offered in other markets.

post #27 of 31
Great, but the consensus estimate is 25.5 million and we are not letting you change that now.....
post #28 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by clayder View Post

Great, but the consensus estimate is 25.5 million and we are not letting you change that now.....

Do you know what consensus estimate means?

post #29 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spacepower View Post

While all the speculation is fun, it would be nice if other companies released numbers.

I'm looking at you Samsung, HTC, LG. Let's free that data into a world of transparency? What are you hiding?

What numbers is Apple releasing that Samsung isn't?

post #30 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

What numbers is Apple releasing that Samsung isn't?

When does Samsung report numbers? The report total revenue for their "mobile division" and occasionally report certain data points for vague product categories like the "Galaxy S4" (which could include a half dozen devices).
post #31 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

imo anything above 30 millions will pop the stock hard.  BTW Google is getting slam ATM, bad earnings.

By 'pop' you mean 'tank', right? This is Apple, after all; the only way the stock can go is down.

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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