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iPhone 5 accounts for half of Apple's smartphone sales, iPhone 4S takes 30%

post #1 of 44
Thread Starter 
More than half of all smartphones sold by Apple in June were the latest-generation iPhone 5, according to new data, while the iPhone 4S, first released in 2011, accounted for 30 percent of sales.

CIRP


With the iPhone 5 taking 52 percent and the iPhone 4S earning 30 percent of sales, the remaining 18 percent were iPhone 4 sales, according to data released on Monday by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners to AppleInsider.

The data shows how the average selling price of the iPhone has steadily declined, as customers have increasingly turned to the legacy iPhone 4S and iPhone 4. When the iPhone 5 first launched, early adopters helped push it to 68 percent of all iPhone sales in October 2012, but its share quickly eased to 50 percent by December.

"iPhone 5 appears to have settled in at about half of all iPhone sales, nine months after its initial launch," CIRP said. "In contrast, the earlier flagship model, iPhone 4S, accounted for almost three-quarters of iPhone sales almost a year after its launch. Furthermore, iPhone 4S had 90 percent of all iPhone sales in the period immediately after launch , compared to about 70 percent for iPhone 5."

The data is yet another example of how the average selling price of the iPhone has declined as the smartphone market matures. Some market watchers expect that future growth in the smartphone space will come largely from low- and mid-tier handsets.

That's helped to fuel speculation that Apple will launch a new mid-tier iPhone this year that would allow the company to expand its addressable market. There have also been leaked renderings, 3D mockups, and even alleged parts of the anticipated "iPhone Lite."

CIRP


Another element of growth for Apple has been carrier expansion, and the data released Monday by CIRP found that Apple's latest carrier partner in the U.S., T-Mobile, accounted for 12 percent of American sales. That meant T-Mobile exceeded Sprint, even though Sprint has a larger install base.

T-Mobile's strong start took share from AT&T, which dropped from 49 percent of sales to 44 percent, as well as Verizon, which fell from 39 percent to 34 percent. As the fourth-largest carrier in the U.S., T-Mobile has more aggressive pricing than its competitors and attracts budget-minded consumers, which could make it a key player if Apple were to release an "iPhone Lite."

Finally, CIRP's data found that more than half of iPhone buyers in June were upgrading from a competing platform or were buying their first smartphone. While 24 percent were switching from standard mobile phones, 26 percent jumped from Google's Android platform, and 7 percent came from BlackBerry. Among existing iPhone users, most ? 18 percent ? were upgrading from the iPhone 4, while 13 percent came from the iPhone 4S.
post #2 of 44
"But but but but but the iPhone 5 isn't selling! It's just the same thing Apple has always made! People don't want rehashes anymore! They're on to your tricks, Apple!"

Ah, remember that in the first quarter it was available? You'd think people that stupid would learn to shut up. lol.gif

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post #3 of 44
Once possible reason: The 4S does not LACK any of the features of the 5.

In other words, there's nothing the 5 can do the 4S cannot.

That should change with iOS7 and the 5S.
post #4 of 44
So what is the report based on? Same method (guesses 1wink.gif ) that some of the other analysts use?

Actual model sales data from carriers and third-party resellers? Probably not but there's nothing explaining how they came up with the statistics. Perhaps they have very reliable data that identifies the specific model involved in each "sale" but if so they don't mention it nor where it comes from. Perhaps AI could expand on it a bit more.
Edited by Gatorguy - 7/22/13 at 9:19am
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post #5 of 44
Where is this data coming from since Apple doesn't break out sales by model and hasn't announced earnings yet so we don't know the most current ASP?
post #6 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriamjh View Post

Once possible reason: The 4S does not LACK any of the features of the 5.

In other words, there's nothing the 5 can do the 4S cannot.

That should change with iOS7 and the 5S.

Well, except play my 16:9 videos full screen.
post #7 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriamjh View Post

Once possible reason: The 4S does not LACK any of the features of the 5.

In other words, there's nothing the 5 can do the 4S cannot.

That should change with iOS7 and the 5S.

1oyvey.gif

There is just no end to people's lack of understanding.

Is it really that hard to understand? Do you honestly need it spelled out?

P.R.I.C.E.

The reason 30% of Apple's iPhone sales last month were a 2011 phone is because it was HALF the up front cost of the iPhone 5. There are a lot of people that simply don't care. There are a lot of people that are not going to make a buying decision based on much else other than PRICE....

50% iPhone 5
30% iPhone 4S..

That leaves the remaining 20%....which was the iPhone 4. Again, major price influenced decision here. This has been the case almost every year since Apple started offering last year's phone, and the one before that as Free.


THIS is why Apple is being smart this year, and finally building a NEW phone to introduce into the $0 w/ contract and $99 w/ contract price point. These points are HUGE< MASSIVE < UNBELIVABLE. And account for HALF, 50% of all of Apple's iPhone sales at any given time.
post #8 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

THIS is why Apple is being smart this year, and finally building a NEW phone to introduce into the $0 w/ contract and $99 w/ contract price point. These points are HUGE< MASSIVE < UNBELIVABLE. And account for HALF, 50% of all of Apple's iPhone sales at any given time.

Thanks for all that proof, by the way.

Never mind that Apple has made 75% of the profit in the ENTIRE CELL PHONE INDUSTRY by (according to you) "not being smart". 1oyvey.gif

Come off it, man.

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post #9 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post


There is just no end to people's lack of understanding.

Is it really that hard to understand? Do you honestly need it spelled out?
...

THIS is why Apple is being smart this year, and finally building a NEW phone to introduce into the $0 w/ contract and $99 w/ contract price point. These points are HUGE< MASSIVE < UNBELIVABLE. And account for HALF, 50% of all of Apple's iPhone sales at any given time.

Huh?

post #10 of 44
Am I confused? This is talking about sales and if the iPhone 5 costs 2x what the iPhone 4S costs (I have had friends being offered the iPhone 4S for free, so on the sales front, it would be $0) so are they moving more iPhone 4S's then iPhone 5's?

So to track this by sales seems a little misleading as they move less of the more expensive model (iPhone 5) and more of the cheaper model (iPhone 4S, or iPhone 4) and the sales is higher on the iPhone 5, yet they move more of the iPhone 4S (by my rought calculation). After looking at Verizons website, they only offer the 16gb model, so they could move (4) iPhone 4S's and (1) iPhone 5 64gb and the sales are equal, yet the quantity is totally different. I read this article at first thinking they are trying to say that more people are adapting to the iPhone 5, but now I think just the opposite, that people dont really care as much as the percentages they are stating say.

Did I read this wrong?
post #11 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


Thanks for all that proof, by the way.
 

Don't you mean ... "Thanks for all that poof, by the way"

post #12 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

So what is the report based on? Same method (guesses 1wink.gif ) that some of the other analysts use?

Actual model sales data from carriers and third-party resellers? Probably not but there's nothing explaining how they came up with the statistics. Perhaps they have very reliable data that identifies the specific model involved in each "sale" but if so they don't mention it nor where it comes from. Perhaps AI could expand on it a bit more.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Where is this data coming from since Apple doesn't break out sales by model and hasn't announced earnings yet so we don't know the most current ASP?

Amongst the myriad methods used by analysts to gather data, my fav is sending junior analysts (or interns/students?) to Apple stores and carrier stores to count what people buy.

post #13 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

Don't you mean ... "Thanks for all that poof, by the way"

Poof as in 'fluff'? I don't feel he padded his opinion too much. 1tongue.gif

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post #14 of 44

20% seems low for the i4 given that they are given away for 'free'  Does the data count the iPhone 5's given away as a free upgrade as a sale?  My guess is yes since Apple still gets their subsidy and that would obviously skew things in the 5's direction.  'Free' is pretty powerful in the US.

post #15 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


Poof as in 'fluff'? I don't feel he padded his opinion too much. 1tongue.gif

The kinder, gentler TS ...

 

But to me, verbosity without substance is poof.

post #16 of 44

It's all about the money money money.

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post #17 of 44

It remains to be seen if this is a good thing. Just because the 5 has a higher price doesn't mean it has higher margins. 

post #18 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

Amongst the myriad methods used by analysts to gather data, my fav is sending junior analysts (or interns/students?) to Apple stores and carrier stores to count what people buy.
I hate when headlines don't use words like rumor or analyst estimate. Cult of Mac is notorious for throwing every possible rumor up on their site with the headline stating it as fact, not speculation or rumor. This headline reads like a statement of fact when it's clearly not. It's just an estimate.
post #19 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriamjh View Post

Once possible reason: The 4S does not LACK any of the features of the 5.

In other words, there's nothing the 5 can do the 4S cannot.

That should change with iOS7 and the 5S.

LTE capability is a "feature" and the 4 series phones do not have that.

post #20 of 44

Half were upgrading from a competitor or non-smartphone.

 

But but but - fandroids keep telling me Apple only survives by reselling over and over to the same sheep.

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post #21 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Thanks for all that proof, by the way.

Never mind that Apple has made 75% of the profit in the ENTIRE CELL PHONE INDUSTRY by (according to you) "not being smart". 1oyvey.gif

Come off it, man.

???

What are you even talking about?

Was I not clear on my simple summary of the obvious and the factual?

Facts:

1. We hear reports all the time of how incredibly successful the venture has been to continue selling New iPhones of the previous and previous 2 generations, as lower price points.

2. These data in this article alone corroborate that, and moreover give specific numbers.

Not Yet Fact, but obviously going to be:

1. Apple has decided that they can capitalize on an already successful market segment: the people that buy previous generations would be even more inclined to buy a current generation if they were priced the same and, well, were the only 'New' option in that category.

Enter Apple's low cost iPhone. The purpose of this iPhone to offer a category of iPhone that replaces the old way of simply selling out of date phones. What I assume this will do for Apple is make this venture more profitable, as:
-they won't have to maintain out of date manufacturing processes and assembly lines.
-they can have one cohesive and evolvable manufacturing process.
-they can have one design that fits the market segment even better.
-they can charge a little bit less (not much) for the device when off contract is considered (probably around $399).
post #22 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by EricTheHalfBee View Post

Half were upgrading from a competitor or non-smartphone.

But but but - fandroids keep telling me Apple only survives by reselling over and over to the same sheep.

But the fandroids have personal anecdotes to back up their claims!

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post #23 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood View Post

20% seems low for the i4 given that they are given away for 'free'  Does the data count the iPhone 5's given away as a free upgrade as a sale?  My guess is yes since Apple still gets their subsidy and that would obviously skew things in the 5's direction.  'Free' is pretty powerful in the US.

Its only Free to the customer, remember. Apple still gets full price from the carrier.
post #24 of 44
What matters is the international mix, not the US mix. The US numbers are about what I was hoping for globally, which might not speak well for everyone.

I wonder what percentage of people selected the 4S because of the dock connector.
post #25 of 44
The real question is this:

How murky do things get with these new upgrade options from all the major US carriers?

Until now it has been pretty simple with Flagship = $199, Last Year = $99, 2 Years Prior = $0. in terms of up front cost for upgrade eligible and new customers....

But now, everyone is going to have the 'option' of getting the iPhone 5S for $0 up front. Yes, you end up paying more over time with the monthly addition, but I'm not debating whether or not it is a good idea. Just that, its a reality, that lots of people will bite at. Personally I think it is a brilliant move by the carriers as they found a way to take even more money from customers, while giving people what they 'want' which is the ability to upgrade when new phones are released, without shelling out over $400 up front.
post #26 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

What matters is the international mix, not the US mix. The US numbers are about what I was hoping for globally, which might not speak well for everyone.

I wonder what percentage of people selected the 4S because of the dock connector.

Zero. I don't need data to make that statement.
post #27 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

The real question is this:

How murky do things get with these new upgrade options from all the major US carriers?

Until now it has been pretty simple with Flagship = $199, Last Year = $99, 2 Years Prior = $0. in terms of up front cost for upgrade eligible and new customers....

But now, everyone is going to have the 'option' of getting the iPhone 5S for $0 up front. Yes, you end up paying more over time with the monthly addition, but I'm not debating whether or not it is a good idea. Just that, its a reality, that lots of people will bite at. Personally I think it is a brilliant move by the carriers as they found a way to take even more money from customers, while giving people what they 'want' which is the ability to upgrade when new phones are released, without shelling out over $400 up front.

I don't think that it's $0 upfront with any of the new plans.
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post #28 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

1. We hear reports all the time of how incredibly successful the venture has been to continue selling New iPhones of the previous and previous 2 generations, as lower price points.

Right. And you think that's stupid:
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

THIS is why Apple is being smart this year, and finally building a NEW phone...[in place of the old ones]
Quote:
Not Yet Fact, but obviously going to be:

I don't believe you understand how fact works.
Quote:
1. Apple has decided that they can capitalize on an already successful market segment: the people that buy previous generations would be even more inclined to buy a current generation if they were priced the same and, well, were the only 'New' option in that category.

So sell fewer of the actually new, actually good phone model because idiots are buying the cheap one, costing Apple profits, and then whining about how it doesn't work as well as the other model, but that it should because it's "new".

Is that a good plan?
Quote:
-they won't have to maintain out of date manufacturing processes and assembly lines.

Counterpoint: the return on their investment into said manufacturing processes and assembly lines is cut by a large amount. I'd say a third, but I'm sure jragosta or others who've experience in the drop-off of old product in the manufacturing industry could give you a more accurate number.
Quote:
-they can have one cohesive and evolvable manufacturing process.

Counterpoint: you mean the one they already do?
Quote:
-they can have one design that fits the market segment even better.

Counterpoint: If all the whining and idiocy is about having different models, how is having one design able to fit the market better? Additionally, since everything we've seen doesn't have anywhere near the same design, why would you think this is the case anyway?
Quote:
-they can charge a little bit less (not much) for the device when off contract is considered (probably around $399).

Counterpoint: Causing the idiots who want a cheap iPhone to not be happy in the first place and to continue whining, solving no problems but creating many new ones.

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post #29 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Counterpoint: Causing the idiots who want a cheap iPhone to not be happy in the first place and to continue whining, solving no problems but creating many new ones.

The problem it will solve is declining share outside the US. The problems it will cause will be none.
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post #30 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

I don't think that it's $0 upfront with any of the new plans.

Then you haven't looked at it all. That is basally 50% of the entire incentive/purpose. The other 50% being every 12 months (or 6 months for some) eligibility.
post #31 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post
But to me, verbosity without substance is poof.

...except apparently when it comes from yourself, obviously. /s

post #32 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Then you haven't looked at it all. That is basally 50% of the entire incentive/purpose. The other 50% being every 12 months (or 6 months for some) eligibility.

I have been looking at all of the major plans as I may leave VZ this fall. I haven't seen any iPhone 5's for $0 down. Cheapest has been $20.

And on that subject, Vz's "edge" plan is a joke.
post #33 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post


1oyvey.gif

There is just no end to people's lack of understanding.

Is it really that hard to understand? Do you honestly need it spelled out?

P.R.I.C.E.

The reason 30% of Apple's iPhone sales last month were a 2011 phone is because it was HALF the up front cost of the iPhone 5. There are a lot of people that simply don't care. There are a lot of people that are not going to make a buying decision based on much else other than PRICE....

50% iPhone 5
30% iPhone 4S..

That leaves the remaining 20%....which was the iPhone 4. Again, major price influenced decision here. This has been the case almost every year since Apple started offering last year's phone, and the one before that as Free.


THIS is why Apple is being smart this year, and finally building a NEW phone to introduce into the $0 w/ contract and $99 w/ contract price point. These points are HUGE< MASSIVE < UNBELIVABLE. And account for HALF, 50% of all of Apple's iPhone sales at any given time.

 

You're trying too hard to make price a winning factor here.  If price were a major factor then the iPhone 4 would be higher in unit sales than the iPhone 4S.  Your conclusion that an even cheaper iPhone would outsell the iPhone 4 isn't supported by the current data.


Edited by chazwatson - 7/22/13 at 11:26am
post #34 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

"But but but but but the iPhone 5 isn't selling! It's just the same thing Apple has always made! People don't want rehashes anymore! They're on to your tricks, Apple!"

Ah, remember that in the first quarter it was available? You'd think people that stupid would learn to shut up. lol.gif

 

Stats do show the 5S is sellling less than the 4s was.  In OCT 2011, the high end 4s iphone had 90% of the sales while in oct 2012, the 5s had 68% of the sales. It looks like the high end phone is selling less than before.  Would be interesting to see what will happen this year.

 

Q1, 2012 - 37 millions iphones sale with 90% 4s  = 33.3 millions 4s sold.

Q1, 2013 - 47 millions iphones sale with 68% 5s  = 31.9 millions 5s sold.

 

Biggest quarter for the iphone 4 was 18 millions in Q3 2011. So:

iphone 4 VS iphone 4s growth : 45% growth

iphone 4s VS iphone 5 growth: - 4% decline

 

and people wonder why the stock went down...


Edited by herbapou - 7/22/13 at 11:34am
post #35 of 44
NOW: Apple sells past year phones, which are cheaper to manufacture now that they're older technology at lower price points to fill out the product line:

FUTURE: (Hopefully) Apple has two iPhone products, both of which are updated each year. One of which is the continuation of the current model. The second being a new model using generally cheaper to manufacture methods, and slightly older components to hit lower price points in the pre-paid markets.

Apple's current strategy is working ok, but making a second phone line designed to address the medium of the pre-pay market will probably turbo-charge things.

And with the volumes they're doing now, it makes economics sense to carry two distinct designs and update them each year.
post #36 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Right. And you think that's stupid:

I don't believe you understand how fact works.
So sell fewer of the actually new, actually good phone model because idiots are buying the cheap one, costing Apple profits, and then whining about how it doesn't work as well as the other model, but that it should because it's "new".

Is that a good plan?
Counterpoint: the return on their investment into said manufacturing processes and assembly lines is cut by a large amount. I'd say a third, but I'm sure jragosta or others who've experience in the drop-off of old product in the manufacturing industry could give you a more accurate number.
Counterpoint: you mean the one they already do?
Counterpoint: If all the whining and idiocy is about having different models, how is having one design able to fit the market better? Additionally, since everything we've seen doesn't have anywhere near the same design, why would you think this is the case anyway?
Counterpoint: Causing the idiots who want a cheap iPhone to not be happy in the first place and to continue whining, solving no problems but creating many new ones.

You're waaay over thinking it.

First of all, I don't think selling old phones is stupid. You misinterpreted that. It has been brilliantly successful for Apple. But you have to establish WHY it has been so successful for Apple before passing judgment on their next move.

IMO, the data provides a clear story: Selling old phones is successful because even though some people prefer to have the latest and greatest and don't mind paying $200 or more for it, there are just as many people who would prefer to spend less, and still get an iPhone. Its called choice.

Apple is preparing to offer the same choice, but better. By having "new" devices that they believe appeal best to this market segment.
post #37 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jessi View Post

NOW: Apple sells past year phones, which are cheaper to manufacture now that they're older technology at lower price points to fill out the product line:

FUTURE: (Hopefully) Apple has two iPhone products, both of which are updated each year. One of which is the continuation of the current model. The second being a new model using generally cheaper to manufacture methods, and slightly older components to hit lower price points in the pre-paid markets.

Apple's current strategy is working ok, but making a second phone line designed to address the medium of the pre-pay market will probably turbo-charge things.

And with the volumes they're doing now, it makes economics sense to carry two distinct designs and update them each year.

This is what I'm saying. Somehow, this is impossible for others to comprehend. Although, certain people like to argue just for the sake of arguing.
post #38 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by chazwatson View Post

You're trying too hard to make price a winning factor here.  If price were a major factor then the iPhone 4 would be higher in unit sales than the iPhone 4S.  Your conclusion that an even cheaper iPhone would outsell the iPhone 4 isn't supported by the current data.

Its not that black and white. If price were the only factor no iPhone 5 would have ever sold, would it? Same logic extends to 4 vs. 4S.
post #39 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post


Its not that black and white. If price were the only factor no iPhone 5 would have ever sold, would it? Same logic extends to 4 vs. 4S.

 

Don't put words into my mouth.  I didn't say price being the only factor.

 

My point remains-- you have no data to support a cheaper iPhone being more popular in terms of units sold.  Your argument is pure speculation.

post #40 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by chazwatson View Post

Don't put words into my mouth.  I didn't say price being the only factor.

My point remains-- you have no data to support a cheaper iPhone being more popular in terms of units sold.  Your argument is pure speculation.

Both the 4S and the 4 are competing with the secondary market. My nephew got an iPhone 4 for Christmas and when i asked my brother was it "new" - that is from Apple he laughed. He got it cheaper on eBay. With 2-3 models per year he would probably have gotten the cheapest of this years model, which would in any case have better software support. The market for the mini is now bigger than the iPad 4 by some margin, but the 3 outsold the 2.
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