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'iPhone Lite' on track for early Sept., but 'iPhone 5S' production more challenging

post #1 of 90
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Apple's next-generation "iPhone 5S" is likely to face production difficulties, which could limit its availability at launch. Such issues are not, however, expected with the company's anticipated plastic mid-range iPhone, which will reportedly be much easier to build.

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While the so-called "iPhone Lite" is on track for an early September debut, the "iPhone 5S" may take a little longer to become available, according to well-connected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities. Details on Apple's 2013 launch lineup were first shared with AppleInsider on Monday.

Kuo expects that any iPhone production difficulties faced by Apple this year will be similar to last year's launch of the iPhone 5. He expects that the "iPhone 5S" will see "limited" availability following its late September launch, with supply improving in either October or November.

As for the plastic "iPhone Lite," Kuo revealed that shipments will be below market expectations. But he expects the product could be available to launch sooner due to a less difficult manufacturing process.

He has predicted the device will be priced between $450 and $550 ? higher than most observers expect ? with a total of 26 million units to be shipped in 2013. That would be below market expectations of between 30 million and 40 million units.

Kuo views the "iPhone Lite" having "decent profitability, but at the cost of volume."

2013 Predictions
Apple's 2013 lineup, as predicted by Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities in January.


The launch lineup pegged by Kuo this week still largely aligns with the product release schedule he revealed back in January. The insider correctly predicted that Apple would have no major product launches, aside from a MacBook Air refresh, in the first half of 2013.

Fingerprint


The latest research note from Kuo made no mention of a fingerprint sensor in the "iPhone 5S," but the analyst has repeatedly asserted claims that Apple will include such functionality in this year's model. Specifically, he expects the technology to be embedded under the home button, allowing users to easily authenticate their identity for features such as password entry or even potential e-wallet functionality.

As for the "iPhone Lite," Kuo has portrayed the device as essentially an iPhone 5 with a plastic body. The new lower-end handset is expected to have the same 4-inch display as the iPhone 5, but with a thicker frame. Such a move would allow Apple to potentially discontinue the iPhone 4S entirely, moving its full smartphone lineup to 4-inch displays and Lightning connectors.
post #2 of 90

He is pretty much saying Apple wont be making a low cost iphone, they will just put the 4s internals and the 5 into plastic shells and price them at 450 and 550. the good is this wont hurt margins at all, the bad is Apple still wont be able to address markets where a sub $400 unlock phone is needed.

 

Is it me or we are getting the same news twice?

post #3 of 90
Yawn. I wish AI would stop reporting on this crap. This guy doesn't know jack. He's just throwing stuff at the wall figuring something will stick. 1rolleyes.gif
post #4 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

He is pretty much saying Apple wont be making a low cost iphone, they will just put the 4s internals and the 5 into plastic shells and price them at 450 and 550.
And he knows this how?
post #5 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


And he knows this how?

 

i have no idea, but that guy is one of the most reliable out there. He must have inside information from somewhere.

 

I think he may be wrong on the prices, he just assumed that since its the ip4s and ip5 internals they are going to price them like the old iphone models. imo the whole point of moving into plastic is reducing the price also, so we may get 400 and 500 afterall. That being said,  something in the $300 to $350 range would be better for unlock markets and emerging markets.


Edited by herbapou - 7/23/13 at 7:29am
post #6 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Yawn. I wish AI would stop reporting on this crap. This guy doesn't know jack. He's just throwing stuff at the wall figuring something will stick. 1rolleyes.gif

I suggest you review his history. He has been very accurate in the past, he called every single product and launch timeframe last year. He is the only analyst I find worth reading

The question then becomes, if true, does Apple announce both at the same time? Or 2 events?
post #7 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

Is it me or we are getting the same news twice?

 

Yeah it's weird we got this story yesterday too.

 

I doubt the iPhone Lite and the 5S would be released at separate times. 

post #8 of 90
"Marginally cheaper, comes in colours." Is just not going to do anything.

If the "cheap" iPhone is anywhere near these price estimates, then it won't be cheap and it won't be successful. Six months after launch you can often get discounts on the new iPhone that put it in the same range as this "cheap" one.

They need to go for volume, and thus they need to actually go "cheap," as in free on contract and 200-300 off contract.
post #9 of 90

"Chinese worker takes bathroom break. All Apple products delayed 3 months."
 

Hmmmmmm...
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Hmmmmmm...
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post #10 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post


I suggest you review his history. He has been very accurate in the past, he called every single product and launch timeframe last year. He is the only analyst I find worth reading

The question then becomes, if true, does Apple announce both at the same time? Or 2 events?

 

I think it would be wise if they announced both at the same time and released both at the same time. It looks like according to Ming the iPhone Lite will be ready early September and the 5S will be ready late September. They could feasibly just push the launch of the cheap iPhone to match the launch of the 5S.

post #11 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

"Chinese worker takes bathroom break. All Apple products delayed 3 months."
 

That sounds like crap. ;)

post #12 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post

I suggest you review his history. He has been very accurate in the past, he called every single product and launch timeframe last year. He is the only analyst I find worth reading

The question then becomes, if true, does Apple announce both at the same time? Or 2 events?
So? He throws stuff at the wall and some of it sticks. A lot of what he guessed last year were no brainers anyway.
post #13 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

"Marginally cheaper, comes in colours." Is just not going to do anything.

If the "cheap" iPhone is anywhere near these price estimates, then it won't be cheap and it won't be successful. Six months after launch you can often get discounts on the new iPhone that put it in the same range as this "cheap" one.

They need to go for volume, and thus they need to actually go "cheap," as in free on contract and 200-300 off contract.

 

Then why doesn't Apple just join up with Samsung? We don't buy Apple for cheap $hit and not one does. They will never make a $250 phone. They don't want to be king of crap. They "iPhone Lite" is to capture the mid-tier market. They won't aim for the bottom-tier and never should. They can ruin the name of the true iPhone if they are not careful on how they carry out the cheaper phone. A phone in the 400 range would be the best balance. I am interested to see if Apple keeps the 3.5 or goes to 4 on the cheap phone though. I suspect they will go to the 4'', even if it costs more.

post #14 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post

I suggest you review his history. He has been very accurate in the past, he called every single product and launch timeframe last year.

Production issues is the new DigiTimes. They're always worthless.
Quote:
The question then becomes, if true, does Apple announce both at the same time? Or 2 events?

Obviously there won't be two events for the PHONES…
post #15 of 90
Wouldn't it make sense if Apple really just bought the finger scanning company to strengthen up it's labs and factories for top level employees not leaking shit? The new display doesn't show any signs of finger scanning modules or connectors present.

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iTunes Radio - Apple TV with Wifi AC - Gold Anodized Aluminum iPhone - Mac Pro: September - November 2013

 

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post #16 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

So? He throws stuff at the wall and some of it sticks. A lot of what he guessed last year were no brainers anyway.

...more accurately than any other.

I agree most of them spout BS. This guy I trust more than others. Either way, looks like my family will be purchasing 2 of the "lite" phones if true. My wife & daughter don't care about fingerprint anything.
post #17 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Production issues is the new DigiTimes. They're always worthless.
Obviously there won't be two events for the PHONES…

Agree on both. But we will see if his accuracy continues.
post #18 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post

"Marginally cheaper, comes in colours." Is just not going to do anything.

If the "cheap" iPhone is anywhere near these price estimates, then it won't be cheap and it won't be successful. Six months after launch you can often get discounts on the new iPhone that put it in the same range as this "cheap" one.

They need to go for volume, and thus they need to actually go "cheap," as in free on contract and 200-300 off contract.
Seems to me these analysts are just looking at the current off contract price of the 4/4S and attaching that to this "low cost" phone. Honestly I don't think any of them have a clue what Apple is planning to do. Why would Apple make the phone plastic if the thought wasn't high volume and a lower cost. If the plastic phone is going to be the same price as current 4/4S unlocked what's the point of going plastic?
post #19 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkdefender View Post

Wouldn't it make sense if Apple really just bought the finger scanning company to strengthen up it's labs and factories for top level employees not leaking shit? The new display doesn't show any signs of finger scanning modules or connectors present.

They did.

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post #20 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

"Chinese worker takes bathroom break. All Apple products delayed 3 months."

 
That sounds like crap. 1wink.gif

Which can backfire
I’d rather have a better product than a better price.
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I’d rather have a better product than a better price.
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post #21 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seankill View Post

Then why doesn't Apple just join up with Samsung? We don't buy Apple for cheap $hit and not one does. They will never make a $250 phone. They don't want to be king of crap. They "iPhone Lite" is to capture the mid-tier market. They won't aim for the bottom-tier and never should. They can ruin the name of the true iPhone if they are not careful on how they carry out the cheaper phone. A phone in the 400 range would be the best balance. I am interested to see if Apple keeps the 3.5 or goes to 4 on the cheap phone though. I suspect they will go to the 4'', even if it costs more.
To me colored plastic is going cheap, even if they don't price it cheap. If they're going for a certain market (emerging) or demographic (young people) $450-$550 seems pretty expensive.
post #22 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

i have no idea, but that guy is one of the most reliable out there. He must have inside information from somewhere.

 

Can I see your side-by-side comparison that led you to this conclusion? Or did you read somewhere that he is one of the most reliable?

Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post


I suggest you review his history. He has been very accurate in the past, he called every single product and launch timeframe last year. He is the only analyst I find worth reading
 
 
I suggest you review his history, and compare it against others before making your final conclusion.
 
It's interesting how a legend develops. We read someone that someone has a reliable track record. Without checking, we propagate this reputation and suddenly Mr. Kuo is the second coming of Nate Silver.
 
Kuo seems to have a better track record than most. That seems to be what everyone says. But check it carefully and you will find:
 
- He repeats (quotes?) Digi-Times rumors. Can we castigate one for being completely unreliable and laud the other for being Kreskin-like when they share some of the same predictions?
- He changes his story.
- Pundits remember when he is right but forgets/forgives his misses. For example, didn't he predict that the entire Macbook lineup would go Haswell and Retina Display by June? Hasn't happened yet.
- He first predicted a RD version of iPad Mini by fall but is now calling for it to come up in 2014. As long as he keeps "refining" his predictions, he will be remembered for being right rather than wrong.
 
Mr. Kuo does seem to have insider info. So do others. But he plays this game more adroitly than others too. All to say, it is only a rumor that his rumors are more "reliable".
post #23 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post


Which can backfire

You're being inflammatory.

post #24 of 90
This doesn't sound too good. The 5S is barely any different than the 5. Maybe they should just skip and go to the 6 if there is going to be a delay.
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post #25 of 90
Unless the iPhone is actually going to be a new design I don't see why the usual chuck in a new CPU, GPU & camera optics & call it new & wonderful device method would cause any major issues.

One of the main issues with the iPhone 5 was the paint which they nailed down months ago.
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post #26 of 90
So it looks like Apple is just going to replace the price point of the iPhone 4S with a much more desirable phone. Makes sense, but 550 is still steep. Why can they build an ipad for 329 but not a 4" phone? I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Apple knows about their business better than I do 1wink.gif
post #27 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

You're being inflammatory.

What a sh***y thing to say.
post #28 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post


I suggest you review his history. He has been very accurate in the past, he called every single product and launch timeframe last year. 

Really?

 

Care to point us to cites that show he called "...every single product and launch timeline last year"?

post #29 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


So? He throws stuff at the wall and some of it sticks. A lot of what he guessed last year were no brainers anyway.

Exactly.

 

Outside of the iPod Touch 5 modification- which was impressive- where is the Apple TV and iPod Nano?  The MacBook Air was late.  And what a stretch to say the iPad, iPhone, iMac, and Mac Mini will be refreshed in a year's time.  Not to mention, it's almost August now- where are our rMBP updates from June?

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post #30 of 90

I think $450 could work and perhaps the $550 price is just the one with larger storage.  All new iPhone base models start at about $650 so this would be $200 cheaper. This could allow carriers to offer it for free or possibly $100 with a subsidy. A brand new Apple iPhone for $450 is still close enough to mid-tier levels that it could sell very well. 

 

It makes sense that they want to ditch the 3.5" and 30 pin and go exclusively with 4" and lightning. I see the internals having the same as the iPhone 5 and not the 4S. This would ensure that more people that want that premium iPhone experience have to get the latest model and avoid what happened this year where the 4 & 4S sold about as well as the 5. The iPhone might still take close to 50% of sales but I am betting the margins will be better and there will be a clearer delineation. 

 

The delays are troubling and I hope that is incorrect or at least it doesn't get moved too far into the year. A fingerprint scanner would be nice but I am not sure people would really consider that a "Wow" gotta have type feature. I expect a similar reaction to Siri as cool but a novelty. But if they also throw in a much faster CPU/GPU  than the S4, an IGZO display, and double the storage to 32/64/128 along with a much improved camera with dual LED flash and possibly even a new design with a slimmer bezel then there could be some real excitement.

 

The real mystery to me is whether they will use that new Qualcomm front end solution or not that allows a phone to operate on every band in the world. That would allow Apple to just produce one SKU instead of the 3 they make now. It would also immediately open Apple up to selling it on around 150 carriers where they currently can't be used. Even people on China Mobile or Docomo would be able to use it unlocked which would allow those carriers to save face by saying they didn't bow to Apple's demands but still offer access to their towers for customers that buy it themselves. 

post #31 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post


What a sh***y thing to say.

Now that smells like going full circle back to crap. 

post #32 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Really?

Care to point us to cites that show he called "...every single product and launch timeline last year"?

Pull up the past articles. In particular, look at his predictions from January 2012 and his timeline. Not being snarky but I'm not going to read for you.

I didn't say he's the next Jesus. I said he's more accurate than most and I trust his predictions for the most part.

That ok or am I not allowed to post my opinion?
post #33 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

Now that smells like going full circle back to crap. 

You're right, sorry. I'm a little behind.
post #34 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

Kuo seems to have a better track record than most. That seems to be what everyone says. But check it carefully and you will find:

- He repeats (quotes?) Digi-Times rumors. Can we castigate one for being completely unreliable and laud the other for being Kreskin-like when they share some of the same predictions?
- He changes his story.
- Pundits remember when he is right but forgets/forgives his misses. For example, didn't he predict that the entire Macbook lineup would go Haswell and Retina Display by June? Hasn't happened yet.
- He first predicted a RD version of iPad Mini by fall but is now calling for it to come up in 2014. As long as he keeps "refining" his predictions, he will be remembered for being right rather than wrong.

Exactly. NONE of these 'experts' have a very good track record. Someone really needs to track the predictions and produce a score card. Then, when anyone quotes an 'expert', they should report the accuracy rating. I doubt if ANYONE would have very good ratings, except possibly Mossberg, but he doesn't make 'predictions' more than a couple of months out and seems to be mostly a way for Apple to leak things to the press.
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post #35 of 90

I can see where searching for intelligence throughout the supply chain can help an analyst paint some picture of what a new product will look like and when it may appear.  OTOH, those same sources wouldn't know anything about what a product's price point will be so we should take those pieces of information separately when trying to evaluate if there's anything behind them.
 

post #36 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

Now that smells like going full circle back to crap. 


As the sh**t hits the fan.

post #37 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post


You're right, sorry. I'm a little behind.

I'm tempted to say that stinks.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by andrzejls View Post


As the sh**t hits the fan.

 

Round and round it goes.

post #38 of 90
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Exactly. NONE of these 'experts' have a very good track record. Someone really needs to track the predictions and produce a score card. Then, when anyone quotes an 'expert', they should report the accuracy rating. I doubt if ANYONE would have very good ratings, except possibly Mossberg, but he doesn't make 'predictions' more than a couple of months out and seems to be mostly a way for Apple to leak things to the press.

AI could produce a score card, but frankly they won't. Facts aren't necessary to drive forum traffic.

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post #39 of 90

It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future. - Yogi Berra

post #40 of 90

Most people (at least in the U.S.) buy the phone with a plan and pay a far lower price anyway.  In most markets, you can get the iPhone5 for $200 and the iPhone 4s for either free or $99.   If this new "low-cost" iPhone is the same price, then what's the point?  The only benefit I see is that they can discontinue the iPhone 4s.

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