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Wall Street encouraged by Apple's strong iPhone sales & positive guidance, still awaiting new...

post #1 of 65
Thread Starter 
Market watchers were impressed by the results for Apple's June quarter, as iPhone sales came in higher than expectations and guidance for the September quarter was positive. But investors are still pinning their hopes on Apple's anticipated next-generation iPhones and iPads to be blockbuster hits.

Chart
Chart by Dan Frommer, via TechCrunch.


Following Apple's quarterly results on Tuesday, analysts offered their mostly positive responses to the fact that the company sold a June quarterly record 31.2 million iPhones. Here, AppleInsider offers a rundown of their reactions.

Morgan Stanley



Apple's guidance for the September quarter projects gross margin of between 36 and 37 percent, which was a surprise to analyst Katy Huberty. She, like many others, expects new products to debut in the quarter, and product transitions usually negatively affect margins.

"We believe more favorable component pricing (NAND, HDD, LCD) and improved iPhone mix are tailwinds that help offset currency volatility and product transition costs in the September quarter," she wrote.

As for the stronger-than-expected iPhone results, she noted that Apple's 20 percent year-over-year growth came in spite of a channel inventory reduction. In addition, the U.S., Japan, and the U.K. all grew iPhone sales north of 50 percent.

The weak spot for Apple's June quarter was the iPad, which saw its first-ever sales decline. Huberty expects that demand will return when the company debuts a fifth-generation iPad in the near future.

Campus


JP Morgan



Apple's June quarter results were "not too bad," analyst Mark Moskowitz said. He expects the stock price to react favorably due to strong iPhone sales and a gross margin outlook that's better than many investors anticipated.

Issues for the company, according to Moskowitz, are a slowdown in China, and soft iPad sales. But he expects near-term growth from anticipated iPhone launches in September and a new iPad mini in October.

"In such a case, we think any temporary pressure on gross margin related to new products is likely deferred to (the December quarter)," he said. "This dynamic could pressure gross margin, but we think that the offset is higher revenue growth."

A key question for Moskowitz is whether Apple will stagger its new product launches this fall. He cited shortages seen by Apple last year that potentially cost the company "customer conversions."

iProducts


Needham & Company



Apple's fourth fiscal quarter guidance suggests to analyst Charlie Wolf that Apple might introduce a next-generation "iPhone 5S" before the end of the quarter. But for now, he said the story for Apple among investors is, "What have you done for me lately?"Can Apple innovate at the same pace without Steve Jobs? Analyst Charlie Wolf believes the answer is forthcoming.

"After a whirlwind of new product introductions in the fall of 2012, Apple has been virtually silent on the product introduction front for nine months," he said. "That should change beginning in September/October with the launch of the next-generation iPhone and iPad."

While he sees updates to Apple's best-selling products on the horizon, Wolf does not anticipate that the company will introduce products in new categories this year. Rumors have suggested Apple is working on both wearable technology, such as a so-called "iWatch," as well as a full-fledged television set.

"These initiatives suggest that Apple should once again be able to enter new product categories in 2014, although it is difficult to imagine that they will be the revenue producers that the iPhone and iPad have turned out to be," he said.

For now, the risk for Apple is whether the company can continue to innovate at the same pace without legendary co-founder Steve Jobs at the helm.

"We are approaching a point when an answer might be forthcoming," he said.

Piper Jaffray



Analyst Gene Munster is encouraged by iPhone demand, which he believes was pushed higher by a price cut on the iPhone 4 in emerging markets. That pushed iPhone sales 18 percent higher than expected, but also led to a 5 percent decline quarter over quarter in the iPhone lineup's average selling price.Apple is weathering its current "transitional quarters" well, Gene Munster believes, but anticipation is growing for the company's next big thing.

Following Tuesday's results, Munster admitted that the iPhone franchise is in better shape than he previously believed. He estimates that average selling prices on the iPhone 5 and iPhone 4S were unchanged, while price cuts on the iPhone 4 in emerging markets likely made the low-end handset's average selling price drop 15 percent.

Apple currently finds itself in "transitional quarters," he said. But that's anticipated to change over the next six quarters, when he sees a range of new products debuting, beginning with a cheaper, plastic iPhone model this fall.

Munster has been a longtime vocal proponent for an Apple television, and he continues to believe that the company will introduce such a product late this year. He expects Apple will also unveil an "iWatch" in 2014.

Wells Fargo



With Apple admitting that new products will launch in the fall, and analyst Maynard Um expecting a late September iPhone launch, he views Friday, Sept. 27 as a likely date for a new product to debut. Fall officially runs from Sept. 22 to Dec. 21.

"We find it curious that flattish revenue guidance implies there may not be any greater pause ahead of the new iPhone this year than there was last year, despite Apple effectively previewing a launch timeframe ? particularly interesting given the lowering of iPhone channel inventory, presumably to manage the transition and limit price protection," he said.

Potential reasons for this may have been strong demand in July, or greater confidence for a bigger initial launch in late September.

As for the iPad, shipments were down 14 percent year over year, but when adjusting for reductions in channel inventory, the true drop-off was just 3 percent. Um believes iPad sales were likely soft in the U.S. and Europe, as Apple highlighted double-digit growth in China, Japan, Canada, Russia, Latin America, the Middle East, and India.

Cube


Deutsche Bank



Chris Whitmore viewed Apple's June quarter as a mixed bag: He was encouraged by iPhone sales, margins, and earnings per share upside, but views declining iPhone average selling prices, soft iPad and Mac sales, and slowdown in China as negatives for the company.

For investors, he believes there will be "no clarity until new products arrive," as he noted that Apple refused to say whether or not the September quarter would include a significant product transition.

"In fact, the better-than-expected margin guidance gives rise to concerns that the new iPhones could come either at the very end of the September quarter (and have no material impact in September) or is pushed to the December quarter," he said.

RBC Capital Markets



Apple's June quarter was better than analyst Amit Daryanani feared it might be, but he believes the focus will remain on Apple's product cycle and anticipated updates to the iPhone and iPad lineup. He also believes investors will keep an eye on Apple's long-term gross margins.

Daryanani believes Apple's guidance for the next quarter implies that an "iPhone 5S" will go on sale in either the second or third week of September.

He also noted that Apple's "blended" average selling price for the iPhone was at $581, representing a 17 percent quarter-over-quarter decline. That suggests to him that sales of the legacy iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S were more robust when compared to the iPhone 5.

ISI Group



Analyst Brian Marshall believes Apple has an "urgent need" for an iPhone with a larger display. But while the "iPhone 5S" is expected to have the same 4-inch display as the iPhone 5, he believes the "extreme makeover" of iOS 7 may satisfy loyal Apple fans, giving them "enough reason to wait for a larger-display iPhone model."

He expects that an iPhone with a screen size at about 5 inches could be a catalyst for the company over the next 3 to 9 months. He also anticipated a new iPad mini, and potential new product category announcements, such as a television or smart watch.

JMP Securities



Longtime Apple bear Alex Gauna viewed the company's June quarter as "an encouraging step in the right direction after the disappointment last quarter." However, he said the results were not strong enough to convince him that Apple is "out of the competitive and gross margin squeeze woods yet."

JMP Securities has maintained its "market perform" rating for AAPL stock. Gauna said he's hoping to see "better visibility or confidence in new earnings growth drivers" before he's willing to view Apple as a good buy for investors.
post #2 of 65
So once again the analysts have to change their tune on a dime in order to jive with reality.
post #3 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

So once again the analysts have to change their tune on a dime in order to jive with reality.

Such a fickle bunch.

I'm glad none of them mentioned the necessity of a cheap iPhone to sell in emerging markets. The 2 year old iPhone 4 sold like crazy even though everyone said people in emerging markets weren't interested in a 2 year old phone.
post #4 of 65
Quote:
Wall Street encouraged

Apple is TRULY doomed.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #5 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post


Such a fickle bunch.

I'm glad none of them mentioned the necessity of a cheap iPhone to sell in emerging markets. The 2 year old iPhone 4 sold like crazy even though everyone said people in emerging markets weren't interested in a 2 year old phone.

 

Well, not everyone. Only the crazy haters are always saying stuff like that. For them Apple is perpetually on the verge of bankruptcy, none of their products sell well, etc. You know, the usual talking points by that crowd (see recent comments by Constable Odo) for example.

post #6 of 65
Weird graph there. So their YoY revenue growth for the Jun '13 Q is a little over 0%? Can't make it out.
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post #7 of 65
As of 10am EST stock is still up over 4%. Greater than expected iPhone sales and margins coming in where expected must be outweighing any of the negatives.
post #8 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Well, not everyone. Only the crazy haters are always saying stuff like that. For them Apple is perpetually on the verge of bankruptcy, none of their products sell well, etc. You know, the usual talking points by that crowd (see recent comments by Constable Odo) for example.
You mean like this?
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505125_162-57594484/why-apple-is-a-dead-company-walking/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CBSNewsPCAnswer+(PC+Answer%3A+CBSNews.com)
post #9 of 65

I don't want to see Apple branch out into too many new product categories, it won't be possible for the brightest guys like Ive to give attention to much more than they currently make.  They should stick with focusing on making the best products in the markets they are in now.  There is lots of room for growth in the TV market.  

post #10 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Well, not everyone. Only the crazy haters are always saying stuff like that. For them Apple is perpetually on the verge of bankruptcy, none of their products sell well, etc. You know, the usual talking points by that crowd (see recent comments by Constable Odo) for example.
You mean like this?
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505125_162-57594484/why-apple-is-a-dead-company-walking/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CBSNewsPCAnswer+(PC+Answer%3A+CBSNews.com)

Lol. That's to keep the great unwashed -- who are likely CBS's demographic -- amused. Similar to how knocking celebrities off a pedestal somehow supposedly increases one's perceived sense of self-worth.
post #11 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


Lol. That's to keep the great unwashed -- who are likely CBS's demographic -- amused. Similar to how knocking celebrities off a pedestal somehow supposedly increases one's perceived sense of self-worth.


We'll see when the "new" products come out.

 

I'm still not sold on Cook.

 

I think Apple will become quite a different company than it was under Steve.

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post #12 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Well, not everyone. Only the crazy haters are always saying stuff like that. For them Apple is perpetually on the verge of bankruptcy, none of their products sell well, etc. You know, the usual talking points by that crowd (see recent comments by Constable Odo) for example.

The haters want Apple to sell more stuff, now? The increasing mix of the older phones in the sales figures tells us the top end is saturated. A lower cost phone is needed and inevitable.
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post #13 of 65
This could be a fun thread for Constable Odo to comment. 1smile.gif
post #14 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by techguy911 View Post

I don't want to see Apple branch out into too many new product categories, it won't be possible for the brightest guys like Ive to give attention to much more than they currently make.  They should stick with focusing on making the best products in the markets they are in now.  There is lots of room for growth in the TV market.  

 

Seeing as how iPods contribute only 2% to Apple's overall numbers I could see them scaling back or even retiring the line once the iWatch and wearables come out.

 

I don't think we'll see senseless expansion of products. Tim Cook seems to be a very wise businessman and he has done an amazing job of keeping "Apple", Apple. They will always do a few things amazingly well.

post #15 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


We'll see when the "new" products come out.

 

I'm still not sold on Cook.

 

I think Apple will become quite a different company than it was under Steve.

 

Which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Steve wasn't the end all of master decision makers at Apple. He didn't always have the best ideas. 

post #16 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


We'll see when the "new" products come out.

I'm still not sold on Cook.

I think Apple will become quite a different company than it was under Steve.

Of course Apple might be slightly different now than it was under Steve, but so what?

Apple can still continue to be very succesful. Apple without Steve is still a billion times better than anybody else.
post #17 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


Of course Apple might be slightly different now than it was under Steve, but so what?

Aple can still continue to be very succesful. Apple without Steve is still a billion times better than anybody else.


For how long.

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post #18 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

 

Which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Steve wasn't the end all of master decision makers at Apple. He didn't always have the best ideas. 


LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!

 

Oh, boy.... some people just don't get it.

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post #19 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


The haters want Apple to sell more stuff, now? The increasing mix of the older phones in the sales figures tells us the top end is saturated. A lower cost phone is needed and inevitable.

 

I think there may be a low cost replacement for the 4S, but it won't be because of necessity or because Apple is afraid of the high end market saturating.

 

They'll do it because they want to make the 16:9 4 inch screen, lightning connector, and likely LTE standard across the lineup.

 

The notion Apple is going low end to get more buyers or save themselves from extinction was proven wrong buy their numbers and results yesterday. 

post #20 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


We'll see when the "new" products come out.

 

I'm still not sold on Cook.

 

I think Apple will become quite a different company than it was under Steve.

 

Tim has done well so far. 

 

I haven't seen any glaring mistakes that would convince me Apple will be "quite a different company" under Tim versus Steve. Tim has the balls to make bold decisions much like Steve. He didn't hesitate to overhaul the largest OS in company history when he saw it was getting long-in-the-tooth. That's a move Steve would make, and Tim has been on top of things very closely ever since taking over.

 

Is Tim perfect? No, but he's made more wise decisions than foolish ones. He definitely is the man for the job rather than Forstall, as some had suggested a few years ago.

post #21 of 65

I have been saying that Apple didn't really need a new product just yet, because the iPad is still quite new and still has a long way to grow, so I am really taken aback by the YoY iPad decline.

 

Perhaps MS was right all along and the tablet is just another form factor of PC (albeit an ultra modern kind of PC for the 2010s). In which case the market is already saturated, and the big growth spurt we were seeing was not a new, empty market being populated, but instead people dumping crappy old PCs (Pentiums, etc), and from now on we must compete with more modern PCs.

 

And notebooks are starting to "fight back" with the iPad anyway (well, Apple ones are at least). The best things about the iPad are:

- all day battery life (but Haswell notebooks have that now, e.g. 2013 Macbook Air)

- safe app store where you can install stuff willy-nilly and not worry about your system crapping out (Mac has that now, provided you install exclusively from the Mac App Store, and only apps that were uploaded after June 2012, when the Sandbox became compulsory)

- touchscreen. Mac laptops still don't have this, but the touchpads are larger than they used to be and support many of the same gestures, such as pinch-to-zoom.

 

Steve Jobs said that tablets would take over 90% of computing needs and computers would just be the "trucks" for getting serious work done (paraphrasing). But maybe instead laptops will steal many of the best aspects of tablets and as a result it will become more of a 50/50 split.

post #22 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post

 

Tim has done well so far. 

 

I haven't seen any glaring mistakes that would convince me Apple will be "quite a different company" under Tim versus Steve. Tim has the balls to make bold decisions much like Steve. He didn't hesitate to overhaul the largest OS in company history when he saw it was getting long-in-the-tooth. That's a move Steve would make, and Tim has been on top of things very closely ever since taking over.

 

Is Tim perfect? No, but he's made more wise decisions than foolish ones. He definitely is the man for the job rather than Forstall, as some had suggested a few years ago.


2012 was still Steve. This is Tim's year. We'll know by this time next year.

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post #23 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


We'll see when the "new" products come out.

I'm still not sold on Cook.

I think Apple will become quite a different company than it was under Steve.
Curious then why no SVP under Cook has left (except for the ones that were fired). If Cook wasn't the right guy you'd think they would be jumping ship. All of them have more money than they'll ever know what to do with. And I'm sure plenty of competitors would hire any one of them in a heartbeat.

I see the stock is up almost 6 percent now.
post #24 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


2012 was still Steve. This is Tim's year. We'll know by this time next year.
We have no idea what was/wasn't Steve. Products aren't created in a vacuum. And things can change.
post #25 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Curious then why no SVP under Cook has left (except for the ones that were fired). If Cook wasn't the right guy you'd think they would be jumping ship. All of them have more money than they'll ever know what to do with. And I'm sure plenty of competitors would hire any one of them in a heartbeat.

I see the stock is up almost 6 percent now.


Hmmm... I guess the guy talking about word mapping was correct. A lot of people only want to talk about stock valuation and product volume.

 

What happened to innovation...

 

Like I said... I'll wait until I see the "new" products. This is Tim's year.

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post #26 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


We have no idea what was/wasn't Steve. Products aren't created in a vacuum. And things can change.


Until now I know what ideas were Steve's... but even if one of the "new" products to be introduced in the next 2 or 3 years was actually Steve's idea, it will still be Tim's implementation of that idea.

 

Exactly... things can change.

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post #27 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

... I think Apple will become quite a different company than it was under Steve.

 

It already is IMO.  

post #28 of 65

YOU have no idea what they are creating right now!!!!!!!!
 

post #29 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


We'll see when the "new" products come out.

 

I'm still not sold on Cook.

 

I think Apple will become quite a different company than it was under Steve.

 

Who do you recommend?  Give us at least one name of who would be a better CEO than Tim Cook.

post #30 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

....I am really taken aback by the YoY iPad decline.

I really don't understand why people are so worried about this: (i) As was pointed out by Cook yesterday, it's shipments that fell 14%; sales fell by only 3% (since Apple cleared out channel inventory, which is a brilliant strategy, imho); (ii) The same quarter last year saw the iPad 3, a blockbuster new product that had amazing sales while this past quarter had no new product; so the comparison is a bit skewed (iii) The iPad 5 is only a couple of months away, so why would any rational person buy one in the prior quarter when you can get a better one -- probably faster, thinner, lighter, with more memory, for the same price?! All it means is that sales have been shifted by one quarter.

 

The market clearly does not seem worried about iPads: AAPL is up close to 6% at the time of writing.

post #31 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


We'll know by this time next year.

Agreed.

If Apple is doing markedly worse in a year I'll agree with you that Tim has to go.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Curious then why no SVP under Cook has left (except for the ones that were fired). If Cook wasn't the right guy you'd think they would be jumping ship. All of them have more money than they'll ever know what to do with. And I'm sure plenty of competitors would hire any one of them in a heartbeat.

I see the stock is up almost 6 percent now.

All of the SVPs probably signed non-compete agreements.
post #32 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


We'll see when the "new" products come out.

I'm still not sold on Cook.

I think Apple will become quite a different company than it was under Steve.

Your constant attempts to discredit Mr. Cook are almost as tedious as they are pathetic. Thou doth protest too much. I'm pretty sure I've seen you in MDN bad mouthing Tim on a regular basis. Take a deep breath. (Edit: Regardless of any MDN activity, your comments in this thread alone seem a bit excessive.)

Apple is clearly a different company under Tim Cook, and as far as I can tell, all for the better. Steve set the ship on a course of innovation with a laser focus on making great products, and Tim seems to me to be the perfect captain. The company is now more mature than it was under Steve, making necessary concessions that Steve's stubborn idealistic stances wouldn't permit. The restraint Tim has shown in withholding products that aren't ready seem to be a good sign to me. Yes, having Steve's creativity would be a plus, but Apple still has more of this than any company out there; it's not even close. I'd suggest having a little faith, but if you look at this objectively, you don't need any faith to see that Apple is as strong as ever.
Edited by PatchyThePirate - 7/24/13 at 9:43am

   

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post #33 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by delreyjones View Post

 

Who do you recommend?  Give us at least one name of who would be a better CEO than Tim Cook.


Well, that's the problem, isn't it.

 

... but that just underscores what I've been saying, if Tim is the only answer then he'd better be able to handle the job.

 

From what you are saying you know what comes next if he can't execute.

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post #34 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatchyThePirate View Post


Your constant attempts to discredit Mr. Cook are almost as tedious as they are pathetic. Thou doth protest too much. I'm pretty sure I've seen you in MDN bad mouthing Tim on a regular basis. Take a deep breath.

Apple is clearly a different company under Tim Cook, and as far as I can tell, all for the better. Steve set the ship on a course of innovation with a laser focus on making great products, and Tim seems to me to be the perfect captain. The company is now more mature than it was under Steve, making necessary concessions that Steve's stubborn idealistic stances wouldn't permit. The restraint Tim has shown in withholding products that aren't ready seem to be a good sign to me. Yes, Having Steve's creativity would be a plus, but Apple still has more of this than any company out there, it's not even close. I'd suggest having a little faith, but if you look at this objectively, you don't need any faith to see that Apple is as strong as ever.


Attempts to discredit Cook?

 

On MDN?

 

Take a hike.

 

The rest is just blather.


Edited by island hermit - 7/24/13 at 9:43am
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post #35 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

 

The market clearly does not seem worried about iPads: AAPL is up close to 6% at the time of writing.

 

It's a tad disconcerting when I read so much hate of Wall Street when AAPL goes down, but so much faith in Wall Street when AAPL goes up.

 

That's my general feeling... I'm not sure of your specific sentiment.

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post #36 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


Attempts to discredit Cook?

On MDN?

Take a hike.

The rest is just blather.

Well it's not any more "blather" than:

"I'm not sold on Tim Cook.. we'll have to wait and see.. he'd better be able to handle the job.. you know what comes next if he can't execute..."

   

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post #37 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


Well, that's the problem, isn't it.

 

... but that just underscores what I've been saying, if Tim is the only answer then he'd better be able to handle the job.

 

From what you are saying you know what comes next if he can't execute.

 

No, I don't know what comes next.  

 

I see no significant evidence that Cook can't execute.  It's a given that he's imperfect and it's a given that he's not Steve Jobs.  But I see no other candidate that's even close to Cook.  I see the criticism of Cook as a side-show that doesn't contribute to our understanding of Apple and the industry.  

 

In the military when someone criticizes but has no alternative, they call them "ankle-biters".  These people whine that the world (or the campaign  or the corporation) is not perfect, but they contribute nothing as far as making the world a better place.  These people deserve very little attention.

post #38 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post

Agreed.

If Apple is doing markedly worse in a year I'll agree with you that Tim has to go.
All of the SVPs probably signed non-compete agreements.
Non compete agreements aren't legal in California.
post #39 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Well, not everyone. Only the crazy haters are always saying stuff like that. For them Apple is perpetually on the verge of bankruptcy, none of their products sell well, etc. You know, the usual talking points by that crowd (see recent comments by Constable Odo) for example.

Let them. They are of no consequence.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #40 of 65

That article is the most ridiculous thing I've ever read.  The opening paragraph should've started with the words "According to non-sensical research done by an uninformed troll..."

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