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Why Tim Cook described Apple's iOS in the Car strategy as 'very important'

post #1 of 104
Thread Starter 
In the very last minute of its earnings call question and answer session with analysts, Apple's chief executive Tim Cook addressed "iOS in the Car," the company's strategy for automotive, calling it "very, very important" and a "key focus for us." Here's why.

iOS in the Car


This first segment details the origins of iOS in the Car and how Apple details it will work. A second segment examines the competition Apple faces in automotive and why it's pushing so hard for an immediate launch next year, and an editorial examines the strategic importance of Apple's iOS in the Car

What if Apple just came out and told you what it was doing next?



It's telling that the group of Apple analysts on the call, who have long been digging at Apple for clues as to what it might do next (netbooks? TVs? watches?) didn't think to bring up iOS in the Car until literally the last minute of the call.

This is particularly noteworthy given that iOS in the Car was publicly outed last month in the company's Worldwide Developer Conference keynote, where a detailed overview of its features were provided by Eddy Cue, Apple's senior vice president of Internet Software and Services, the group that manages iTunes, iCloud, the App Store, iMessages, Siri and Maps."It's something that people want. And I think that Apple can do this in a unique way, and better than anyone else. And so it's a key focus for us." - Tim Cook

Asked by Raymond James analyst Tavis McCourt if iOS in the Car was a "licensing opportunity" or what the "strategic relevance" of it might be, Cook answered, "I see it as very important."

Cook explained, "It is a part of the ecosystem. And so just like the App Store is a key part of the ecosystem, and iTunes and all of our content is key, and the services we provide from messaging to Siri and so forth, having something in the automobile is very very important. It's something that people want. And I think that Apple can do this in a unique way, and better than anyone else. And so it's a key focus for us."

That's certainly a stronger endorsement than Cook's recent descriptions of the state of Apple TV, which have morphed from a "hobby" to being "a string we keep pulling to see where it takes us."

The origins of iOS in the Car



iOS in the Car appears to be Apple's first significant new hardware product that isn't a standalone device. It's an outgrowth of the company's car integration features, which originated as a way to control music playback from the iPod.

Between the iPod's release in 2001 up until 2003, Apple experimented with basic serial interfaces, starting with iPod Accessory Protocol. This morphed into the more sophisticated Advanced iPod Remote (AiR) with the capacity to depict artist and title information, navigate songs within a playlist, handle shuffle playback and even show album art.

In 2004, Apple launched a program with BMW to provide USB iPod integration in its BMW and Mini vehicles, followed by a 2005 announcement of partnerships with Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Nissan, Alfa Romeo and Ferrari.

In 2007, Apple launched the new iPhone and iPod touch, adding support for Bluetooth integration to control audio playback and support phone calls. In 2010, Apple upgraded its auto integration with iOS 4's "iPod Out," a feature designed to present Apple's familiar iPod interface on a car's built in display.

By that point however, the success of the iPhone and iPod touch were eclipsing more basic iPods, so presenting a simple "classic iPod" as the only interface for vehicle playback ended up a short-lived objective. Additionally, there has been increasing interest by government safety officials to reduce the dangers of distracted driving.

Eyes Free


In response, last summer Apple launched a new initiative designed to focus on iOS by integrating iOS 5's Siri feature into automobiles as a voice-only interface branded "Eyes Free."

Apple's focus on Siri and the new Maps in iOS 6 led AppleInsider to predict last winter that Apple's next major market for iOS was likely to be in automotive, noting that Apple is now "in a position to offer a vehicle's entire entertainment system with the release of Siri-integrated Maps in iOS 6."

Apple introduces iOS in the Car



It's therefore fitting that the enhanced new features of Siri in iOS 7 served as a segue for Cue to introduce iOS in the Car at WWDC. "Siri is also a big part of our next feature, 'iOS in the Car,'" Cue announced to developer applause.

"Now, 95% of cars sold today have integrated music playback and control from an iOS device," Cue said. "But we want to take this integration to a whole 'nother level. What if you could get iOS on the screen that is built into your car?"

iOS in the Car expands upon Siri Eyes Free integration, which Apple introduced last summer with the release of iOS 6, by actually installing iOS in the dash. Apple depicts iOS in the Car as running on a dash-integrated screen installed above a physical power button. In the bezel on either side of the power button, Apple depicts what appears to be LED-illuminated Volume and Home controls.

iOS in the Car UI
Source: Apple


Cue highlighted a series of features iOS in the Car will support, including the ability to "get phone calls, play music, go to Maps, get your iMessages right on the screen of your car, or Eyes Free using Siri." As Cue spoke, Apple depicted iOS in the Car features in a series of slides, which it now presents on its iOS 7 preview website with additional detail.

In addition to initiating a phone call Eyes Free via Siri, as Cue demonstrated on stage, Apple's site notes that "Siri will play back your voicemail and return missed calls, if you ask."

iOS in the Car Phone
Source: Apple


In addition to playing music, again Eyes Free via Siri, through a specific song title request, as Cue demonstrated, Apple now states that you will be able to "use your car's onboard controls for your music, including iTunes Radio, audiobooks, podcasts, third-party audio apps, and more."

iOS in the Car iTunes
Source: Apple


In addition "going to maps," Apple highlights that iOS in the Car will give you turn-by-turn directions, and even "knows when you're leaving home for work -- or vice versa -- and displays traffic conditions and your ETA with Maps."

iOS in the Car Maps
Source: Apple


Additionally, Apple notes that iOS in the Car will feature the same kind of Apple Data Detectors integration AppleInsider profiled as a new feature in both the upcoming OS X Mavericks and iOS 7, stating that you can "enter an address or let iOS in the Car serve up any address you received in an email or text" (emphasis ours).

iOS in the Car Directions
Source: Apple


Finally, in addition "getting your iMessages," Apple notes that "text messages appear right on your car's display. Siri can read them to you while you listen over your car's speakers. And to reply, just dictate to Siri."

iOS in the Car iMessages
Source: Apple



Here's the new iOS form factor you've been waiting for



In the screen shots above, Apple depicts iOS in the Car as having an appearance similar to iOS 7 running on an iPhone, yet it's also as different as the iPhone is from iPad. For example, there's a software home button centered on the bottom of the landscape-oriented display.

Also, typical features of the iOS top title bar, including the mobile carrier strength, current time and battery level are presented on the bottom of the screen. It's also interesting that Apple presents mobile signal strength at all, suggesting that iOS in the Car might require its own data plan.

It's possible the display is simply relaying the signal and battery life of a tethered iOS device that's providing the data signal. That would also explain why a car's built-in display would need to have a battery strength indicator, and potentially harmonize with discovered details pointing to AirPlay support over both WiFi and USB in iOS 7 running on mobile devices.

iOS in the Car


At the same time, if iOS in the Car necessitated a tethered mobile link to work, it simply wouldn't work for a lot of people who don't (or can't) use tethering on their mobile plan. Apple hasn't publicly announced how iOS in the Car will work with data carriers, but lots of high end cars already include basic 3G data service to support certain features, including navigation and emergency assistance. This is sometimes paid for by a subscription service, or simply bundled into the cost of the vehicle, similar to Amazon's "Whispernet" service for its e-ink Kindle devices.

A new UI for iOS



The user interface of iOS in the Car is also different from iOS devices in other subtle ways, from the "X" close button to dismiss the "traffic overview" panel (shown previously) to the round, easy to target buttons presented for audibly playing an incoming message or to activate 3D persecutive in Maps.

iOS in the Car UI
Source: Apple


This new user interface is even more evident in the Maps slide shown at WWDC, which presented familiar controls in an auto-optimized layout (above). In contrast with iOS 7 Maps on an iPhone (below), the car display shows larger, simpler icons for search, recent locations, bookmarks and information, as well as simplified location centering and zoom buttons that will likely replace the precise pinch gestures that make sense on a handheld device but not on a dash mounted screen.

The conventional iOS 7 Maps interface for mobile devices not only positions controls differently, but also invites typing text into a search field (a feature that appears to be replaced with Siri or by selecting recent, saved or suggested location bookmarks), as well as offering other features that aren't really car-appropriate, such as Twitter sharing and AirPrint (no word on whether iOS in the Car maps will support satellite or Flyover imagery, but it will no doubt include iOS 7's new night mode).

iOS 7 Maps


How iOS in the Car presents Maps is also dashboard-optimized, with fewer location labels and more apparent street labels when compared to iOS 7 on an iPhone at a similar zoom level. Specifically, there are more parking locations highlighted, a similar number of significant landmarks (albeit without a lot of text), but no transit stops and none of the many schools, coffee shops, hotels, bars (and Apple Store) labels that make Maps on the iPhone too busy to easily read with a quick glance.

In general, iOS in the Car also appears to lack the conventional Home Screen of Apple's iPhone and iPad, using Siri as its default interface instead. Additionally, the phone screen is missing three buttons on the iPhone when making calls: there's (understandably) no FaceTime or Speakerphone button, but there's also none for Contacts, reminding you that iOS in the Car is designed to be navigated by voice through Siri, rather than being a busy interface full of buttons to fuel distracted driving.

This means Apple now has four distinct user interfaces: one for Macs, one for iPhone and iPod touch; one for iPad, and a familiar but new Siri-centric, iOS for the Car user environment thoughtfully optimized for safer, Eyes Free automotive use.

The next segment Why Apple is revving iOS in the Car for an aggressive 2014 launch examines the competition Apple faces in automotive and why it's pushing so hard for an immediate launch next year, and an editorial examines the strategic importance of Apple's iOS in the Car.
post #2 of 104
I think cars will self-drive in a few years, and when they do the passengers will need entertainment. That's why all these electronics companies are getting in to it.
post #3 of 104

Definitely an exciting development. The GPS in both BMWs and Mercedes (and probably other cars) uses overly basic top-down views, and still use DVDs for the data (at least that's true in Australia, not sure about elsewhere). Miles behind $100 GPS systems, which just seems ridiculous. Cutting all of that out, and leaving these features to your phone, seems like a great option. Improvements happen much faster too - who wants to go to a dealer to get an Annual DVD for your maps?

post #4 of 104
I can imagine the serious violations of personal details and information Apple is going to have to deal with once this device comes to fruition.
post #5 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaayco View Post

Definitely an exciting development. The GPS in both BMWs and Mercedes (and probably other cars) uses overly basic top-down views, and still use DVDs for the data (at least that's true in Australia, not sure about elsewhere). Miles behind $100 GPS systems, which just seems ridiculous. Cutting all of that out, and leaving these features to your phone, seems like a great option. Improvements happen much faster too - who wants to go to a dealer to get an Annual DVD for your maps?

The GPS inside my 2013 3 series is on a HDD, not a DVD. 

 

BMW's navigation can also show some 3D buildings and update traffic.

 

The iDrive 4.2 (with touch enabled controller) inside 2014 models will be able to do even more.

cosy.arox?client=byo&brand=wbbm&vehicle=144E&view=static&sa=S0609&width=250

 

Personally I hate using a touchscreen while driving. iDrive's controller is great.

post #6 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by LAKings33 View Post

The GPS inside my 2013 3 series is on a HDD, not a DVD. 

 

BMW's navigation can also show some 3D buildings and update traffic.

 

The iDrive 4.2 (with touch enabled controller) inside 2014 models will be able to do even more.

cosy.arox?client=byo&brand=wbbm&vehicle=144E&view=static&sa=S0609&width=250

 

Personally I hate using a touchscreen while driving. iDrive's controller is great.

 


Sounds like they might actually be getting somewhere. My 5 series from a few years' ago was DVD, and my Mercedes that is less than a year old has DVD. Could just be in Australia. We are a backwater for quite a lot of technology. Good weather, moderately uncorrupt democracy, but average technology ;)

post #7 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

I think cars will self-drive in a few years, and when they do the passengers will need entertainment. That's why all these electronics companies are getting in to it.

 

Not a chance.

post #8 of 104
Now it all makes sense.

Ashton Kutcher - Dude, where's my car?

iOS in the car

...
post #9 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

I think cars will self-drive in a few years, and when they do the passengers will need entertainment. That's why all these electronics companies are getting in to it.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

 

Not a chance.

Not in a few years. But, at the most, two decades from now. It will improve safety, alleviate traffic congestion, sell more cars and iPhones ... Win, win, win, win.

post #10 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post

Not in a few years. But, at the most, two decades from now. It will improve safety, alleviate traffic congestion, sell more cars and iPhones ... Win, win, win, win.

2 decades? No way. I have witnessed a couple of them here in Florida, where they're legal (pretty much the only bill our governor signed that I can get behind).

I think probably 5-7 years max before they're commonplace. 10-12 years before a majority on the road are driven by sensors, not human.

Either way, it will be awesome.
post #11 of 104
This is a case where Apple is behind the game. Microsoft Sync has been providing all these features for many years. On Fords, all these features exist now with their MyFordTouch. I would think Apple may have difficulty entering in the market as many of the auto makers are already heavily invested in their current technology and I would think they would be hesitant to change their platform given they have so many autos in the field with their current platform. Apple would have to have an IOS for cars that was off the charts for a automaker to consider switching midstream. I would not expect Apple to be able to crack the market anytime soon, I think it will be a long, slow slosh.
post #12 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennypacker View Post

This is a case where Apple is behind the game. Microsoft Sync has been providing all these features for many years. On Fords, all these features exist now with their MyFordTouch. I would think Apple may have difficulty entering in the market as many of the auto makers are already heavily invested in their current technology and I would think they would be hesitant to change their platform given they have so many autos in the field with their current platform. Apple would have to have an IOS for cars that was off the charts for a automaker to consider switching midstream. I would not expect Apple to be able to crack the market anytime soon, I think it will be a long, slow slosh.

Yup. Just like Apple was behind the game in mobile phones and tablets. It sure was a long, slow slosh for them to crack the market. Hmmm .... :)

post #13 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post


2 decades? No way. I have witnessed a couple of them here in Florida, where they're legal (pretty much the only bill our governor signed that I can get behind).

I think probably 5-7 years max before they're commonplace. 10-12 years before a majority on the road are driven by sensors, not human.

Either way, it will be awesome.

Yeah, 2 decades.

 

We have seen electric cars, hybrids, etc. for years now. Are they commonplace?

 

And they are not driven by sensors. They are driven by AI. :)

post #14 of 104

Are you SERIOUS? Microsoft Sync is the worst abomination I've ever seen for car technology of ANY kind. I've rented 3 Fords in the last year and it never ceases to amaze me that NOTHING can be done with Microsoft Sync that doesn't require going down thru 2, 3, 4 or more levels of menus, using cryptic buttons on the control panel. The "features" may be there, but good luck getting to them. This is Windows 8 in a car, but much worse. Technology designed by committee, as only Microsoft can do it.

post #15 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post

2 decades? No way. I have witnessed a couple of them here in Florida, where they're legal (pretty much the only bill our governor signed that I can get behind).

I think probably 5-7 years max before they're commonplace. 10-12 years before a majority on the road are driven by sensors, not human.

Either way, it will be awesome.

Nope. 20 years at the earliest. Self drive tech is 15 years old and nothin really new. It will be introduced in stages over the next 20 to 30 years.
post #16 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennypacker View Post

This is a case where Apple is behind the game. Microsoft Sync has been providing all these features for many years. On Fords, all these features exist now with their MyFordTouch. I would think Apple may have difficulty entering in the market as many of the auto makers are already heavily invested in their current technology and I would think they would be hesitant to change their platform given they have so many autos in the field with their current platform. Apple would have to have an IOS for cars that was off the charts for a automaker to consider switching midstream. I would not expect Apple to be able to crack the market anytime soon, I think it will be a long, slow slosh.

But Sync is just so-so in many aspects. I use it in my Escape Hybrid and it has some spectacular fails. Its voice commands are clumsy and recognition is very bad.
post #17 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post


2 decades? No way. I have witnessed a couple of them here in Florida, where they're legal (pretty much the only bill our governor signed that I can get behind).

I think probably 5-7 years max before they're commonplace. 10-12 years before a majority on the road are driven by sensors, not human.

Either way, it will be awesome.

I agree with the 5-7 year figure. ICT grows exponentially not linearly, there are years of flat growth then it suddenly takes off.

 

With computerised maps getting more and more complete and accurate, cheap GPS, cheap sensors, self-parking cars already on the market, the DARPA Grand Challenge so successful/solved that they stopped doing cars and moved on to humanoid robots, the US Army using self-driving convoys in Afghanistan, and even legislature is catching up like you say, several US states and now the UK making self-driving cars legal.

post #18 of 104
Microsoft Sync: "Consumer Reports cites reliability and safety concerns as reasons for not recommending Ford and Lincoln vehicles equipped with MyFord Touch and MyLincoln Touch systems. In addition to requiring repeated trips to Ford dealerships for repairs, owners contend that system malfunctions are quite distracting and could potentially contribute to accidents causing loss of property, injury and death."

Sounds familiar? The Blue Screen of Death now takes on a more literal meaning.
I suspect car manufacturers would be very open to a safe, reliable and all encompassing platform from a company that gets it right---the first time. Tweaks & improvements not withstanding.
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post #19 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennypacker View Post

This is a case where Apple is behind the game. Microsoft Sync has been providing all these features for many years. On Fords, all these features exist now with their MyFordTouch. I would think Apple may have difficulty entering in the market as many of the auto makers are already heavily invested in their current technology and I would think they would be hesitant to change their platform given they have so many autos in the field with their current platform. Apple would have to have an IOS for cars that was off the charts for a automaker to consider switching midstream. I would not expect Apple to be able to crack the market anytime soon, I think it will be a long, slow slosh.

Wrong. You're as arrogant as MS if you think that its established market is safe from being breached by Apple. iOS is simply a superior ecosystem which Apple has been resolutely and inexorably building since the original iPhone. Ignore or deny this at you peril!

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post #20 of 104

Phone - Car integration will be great, but I really think we need a standard that allows any car to work with any phone.  I fear Apple will create a proprietary Apple only integration, then Android will create an Android only, MS has something already.  Then we have a mess of cars that work with different phones.  

 

This is why these things never take off and become widely used.  Companies need to put down their greed and ego and agree on a single standard so car manufacturers will be willing to add the feature to the majority of their cars.

post #21 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post

Yup. Just like Apple was behind the game in mobile phones and tablets. It sure was a long, slow slosh for them to crack the market. Hmmm .... 1smile.gif

Big difference. Those are standalone devices, but this is built into a car. I just can't see someone NOT buying a BMW because it has iDrive and not iOS in the car.
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post #22 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanielSW View Post

Wrong. You're as arrogant as MS if you think that its established market is safe from being breached by Apple. iOS is simply a superior ecosystem which Apple has been resolutely and inexorably building since the original iPhone. Ignore or deny this at you peril!

How is he wrong? Regardless of how superior iOS is Apple cannot force their way into cars.
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post #23 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by techguy911 View Post

Phone - Car integration will be great, but I really think we need a standard that allows any car to work with any phone.  I fear Apple will create a proprietary Apple only integration, then Android will create an Android only, MS has something already.  Then we have a mess of cars that work with different phones.  

 

This is why these things never take off and become widely used.  Companies need to put down their greed and ego and agree on a single standard so car manufacturers will be willing to add the feature to the majority of their cars.

Agreed. I'd much rather see the car companies and mobile device manufacturers develop standards & protocols for interoperability. Europe is probably the place to look for leadership here.

 

- Jasen.

post #24 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


How is he wrong? Regardless of how superior iOS is Apple cannot force their way into cars.

It seems you've missed the current count of car companies who've already committed to implementing it... This is primarily for Pennypacker.

post #25 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedGeminiPA View Post

It seems you've missed the current count of car companies who've already committed to implementing it... This is primarily for Pennypacker.

I don't see any of the big 3 on there though Chevrolet is part of GM.
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post #26 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post


Nope. 20 years at the earliest. Self drive tech is 15 years old and nothin really new. It will be introduced in stages over the next 20 to 30 years.

I disagree. There is plenty new about it.

 

If you call it old just because there have been proof of concepts throughput the last 20 years, then nothing is new.

post #27 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

I agree with the 5-7 year figure. ICT grows exponentially not linearly, there are years of flat growth then it suddenly takes off.

 

With computerised maps getting more and more complete and accurate, cheap GPS, cheap sensors, self-parking cars already on the market, the DARPA Grand Challenge so successful/solved that they stopped doing cars and moved on to humanoid robots, the US Army using self-driving convoys in Afghanistan, and even legislature is catching up like you say, several US states and now the UK making self-driving cars legal.

 

Going to take more than 20 years for sure. Regardless of what is technologically possible and how much improvement will be made each year - the simple fact is that if there are about 300,000,000 cars on the road in the US - and about 15,000,000 sold each year 300/15 = 20 years. or even if you use 2007 data which is more like 250,000,000 cars on the road and more generous 17,000,000 or even 20,000,000 cars sold each year (still talking just US here) - that means it would take at least 12 years to replace the majority of cars on the road - and that would be assuming a 100% total cut over to all self driving cars immediately. 

 

Aside from technological issues - there will also be legal issues, sociological issues, psychological issue, perhaps infrastructure improvements, government regulations etc. that all must be overcome. 

 

Perhaps the majority of cars made 20 years from now will have features such as self parking (or at least assisted parking), and voice-controll (that works), and perhaps most brands will be offering a fully self driving car in at least some states. 

 

I saw a stat that said the average age of cars on the road today is 10.8 years - so there is that as well - even if 100% of new cars starting tomorrow were self-driving - at least half the cars on the road would still be cars that are already on the road right now. 

post #28 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


I don't see any of the big 3 on there though Chevrolet is part of GM.


They may not have the big 3 but they do have the largest automarker in the world in toyota

 

Now I just wish that Toyota would release a software update to replace the crappy entune system they have in my current car

post #29 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

I think cars will self-drive in a few years…
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post

I think probably 5-7 years max before they're commonplace. 10-12 years before a majority on the road are driven by sensors, not human.

You're both being FAR too optimistic. Coming from me, the quintessential technology optimist (NO, that's not sarcasm! You just don't see it in me HERE because there's zero reason to ever be optimistic about Apple), you know it's time to reevaluate. 1tongue.gif

It's not that the tech won't be viable by the end of the teens. It's not that multiple companies, not just Google, will have solutions by then. It's that the automobile manufacturers won't do it and the government will do what the automobile manufacturers say. You won't see them legal in many states until economy forces the law through. And even then you'll still have most of the manufacturers ignore it. Additionally, when they finally do start making them, it will be ONE model at a time. ~Two decades to the first production model means another decade or TWO after that before all models by that manufacturer (one manufacturer, remember) also have it.

Never MIND the fact that people keep their cars for up to (or over) a decade. Because they run that long. Self-driving cars won't even be the majority in the United States (much less anywhere else on the face of the Earth) for, what, 50 years after the first model comes out from the first manufacturer.

And then the rest of the planet will still be using regular cars. Decades-old regular cars.

We'll see iOS as the console in Tesla vehicles before self-driving cars enter production. 1tongue.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post

It will improve safety…

I don't trust Google with my family recipes, phone numbers, or addresses. I will NEVER trust them with my life. Safety! Ha.

I say when the rich people want to swap out their first run of production self-driving cars, some should be sold to state and local governments for use with idiots. You know, the DUIs, reckless drivers, and the like. Leave the rest of us to afford them if we want them, but get the menaces out of control early, you know? They don't deserve brand new cars, but they also don't need to be driving.

Even if a portion of the cars on the road can self-drive, you're right; that will do a lot to help traffic. All cars can communicate no matter where they are, so thousands of them could automatically choose an alternate route 10 minutes in advance because tens of thousands of humans decided to jam up.

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post #30 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post



You're both being FAR too optimistic. Coming from me, the quintessential technology optimist (NO, that's not sarcasm! You just don't see it in me HERE because there's zero reason to ever be optimistic about Apple), you know it's time to reevaluate. 1tongue.gif

It's not that the tech won't be viable by the end of the teens. It's not that multiple companies, not just Google, will have solutions by then. It's that the automobile manufacturers won't do it and the government will do what the automobile manufacturers say. You won't see them legal in many states until economy forces the law through. And even then you'll still have most of the manufacturers ignore it. Additionally, when they finally do start making them, it will be ONE model at a time. ~Two decades to the first production model means another decade or TWO after that before all models by that manufacturer (one manufacturer, remember) also have it.

Never MIND the fact that people keep their cars for up to (or over) a decade. Because they run that long. Self-driving cars won't even be the majority in the United States (much less anywhere else on the face of the Earth) for, what, 50 years after the first model comes out from the first manufacturer.

And then the rest of the planet will still be using regular cars. Decades-old regular cars.

We'll see iOS as the console in Tesla vehicles before self-driving cars enter production. 1tongue.gif

 

I hope you're wrong here. Self driving cars cannot come fast enough for me. I'd love to be able to sit in the car and just read a book on the way to work

post #31 of 104

With Google putting so much R&D money into autonomous cars, they will have to recoup their investment with cars constantly offering to drive you to sponsored locations.

 

"You don't currently have coffee breath. Drive to Starbucks?"

 

 

johnnyb0731 View Post

Self driving cars cannot come fast enough for me. I'd love to be able to sit in the car and just read a book on the way to work

How's the public transit in your area?

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post #32 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyb0731 View Post

I hope you're wrong here. Self driving cars cannot come fast enough for me. I'd love to be able to sit in the car and just read a book on the way to work

And crash and die because the system failed and you weren't paying attention. 1tongue.gif

As magical and wonderful as your scenario (and those dreamed up by thousands of others) would be, it's just not realistic. You'll always have to be sitting in the driver's seat, and always have to be ready at a moment's notice to take over control.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #33 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post



You're both being FAR too optimistic. Coming from me, the quintessential technology optimist (NO, that's not sarcasm! You just don't see it in me HERE because there's zero reason to ever be optimistic about Apple), you know it's time to reevaluate. 1tongue.gif

It's not that the tech won't be viable by the end of the teens. It's not that multiple companies, not just Google, will have solutions by then. It's that the automobile manufacturers won't do it and the government will do what the automobile manufacturers say. You won't see them legal in many states until economy forces the law through. And even then you'll still have most of the manufacturers ignore it. Additionally, when they finally do start making them, it will be ONE model at a time. ~Two decades to the first production model means another decade or TWO after that before all models by that manufacturer (one manufacturer, remember) also have it.

Never MIND the fact that people keep their cars for up to (or over) a decade. Because they run that long. Self-driving cars won't even be the majority in the United States (much less anywhere else on the face of the Earth) for, what, 50 years after the first model comes out from the first manufacturer.

And then the rest of the planet will still be using regular cars. Decades-old regular cars.

We'll see iOS as the console in Tesla vehicles before self-driving cars enter production. 1tongue.gif
I don't trust Google with my family recipes, phone numbers, or addresses. I will NEVER trust them with my life. Safety! Ha.

I say when the rich people want to swap out their first run of production self-driving cars, some should be sold to state and local governments for use with idiots. You know, the DUIs, reckless drivers, and the like. Leave the rest of us to afford them if we want them, but get the menaces out of control early, you know? They don't deserve brand new cars, but they also don't need to be driving.

Even if a portion of the cars on the road can self-drive, you're right; that will do a lot to help traffic. All cars can communicate no matter where they are, so thousands of them could automatically choose an alternate route 10 minutes in advance because tens of thousands of humans decided to jam up.

 

I don't see self-driving car happening any time in the next 30 years.  There have been proof-of-concept demos but that is under ideal conditions with experts watching for problems with the self-driving system.  The problem is there are an infinite number of possiblities while driving and roads are far from perfect.  It's going to be extremely difficult for self-driving systems to handle bad lines in the road, roads under construction, broken street lights, rain, snow, potholes, objects on the road, police directing traffic with hand signals, kids running into the street, other bad drivers on the road, signs redirecting traffic, left/right turn only lanes, needing to change lanes and people not letting you in, closed lanes, etc.....  Even if you make the argument that someone can take over in those cases, the self-driving system may not even be able to detect something is wrong and signal the driver to take over until it is too late.  And if drivers need to be constantly ready to take over at any moment's notice, that sort of defeats the purpose of a self-driving system.

post #34 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by techguy911 View Post

…bad lines in the road…

Do they even run off of those at all?
Quote:
roads under construction

Since they know where said locations are, control will be given back to the human for that.
Quote:
broken street lights

Same thing.
Quote:
…rain, snow…

Why do you imagine they'd be worse than a human? They'll be better than a human at that.
Quote:
…potholes…

Uh… big whoop.
Quote:
…objects on the road…

They'll fly right through horse crap, but anything else won't cause them to swerve wildly…
Quote:
…police directing traffic with hand signals…

Again, construction, so human control.
Quote:
…kids running into the street…

Do you know what brakes are? 1confused.gif I don't get why that would be any different from the myriad other objects being sensed. The computer can react faster than a human.
Quote:
…other bad drivers on the road…

That's the entire point of the system. Why would you need to bring it up?
Quote:
…signs redirecting traffic…

Again, construction, which it knows about, so it would take said detour.
Quote:
…left/right turn only lanes…

… Built… into the map…
Quote:
…needing to change lanes and people not letting you in…

And that's the fundamental system itself, again.
Quote:
…closed lanes, etc…

Traffic.

I agree with you that a computer won't be able to handle what I mentioned as human above until, oh… let's say 2030. But I'd also say that it won't be taken into consideration for the first run of product. You're sitting in the driver's seat at all times; the car would be able to transfer control back to you for those sections. And of course you'd have control whenever you desired otherwise.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #35 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vorsos View Post

 

 

How's the public transit in your area?

 

Crummy

post #36 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

It's not that the tech won't be viable by the end of the teens. It's not that multiple companies, not just Google, will have solutions by then. It's that the automobile manufacturers won't do it and the government will do what the automobile manufacturers say. You won't see them legal in many states until economy forces the law through. And even then you'll still have most of the manufacturers ignore it. Additionally, when they finally do start making them, it will be ONE model at a time. ~Two decades to the first production model means another decade or TWO after that before all models by that manufacturer (one manufacturer, remember) also have it.

Never MIND the fact that people keep their cars for up to (or over) a decade. Because they run that long. Self-driving cars won't even be the majority in the United States (much less anywhere else on the face of the Earth) for, what, 50 years after the first model comes out from the first manufacturer.

Why do you think automobile manufacturers would be reluctant to make these? Surely they will make just as much profit or more from an auto drive car as a non-autodrive one?

 

And maybe people would replace their car sooner than usual if a new and compelling feature were to emerge. It would make a nice change to have some real advancements in cars for a change, rather than this slow and gradual nonsense of the last few decades.

post #37 of 104
Cook better get on the phone with Elon Musk. The Tesla Model S is one of the most popular cars - not just EVs - on the planet. They have a 17" touchscreen on the dashboard with a home grown OS. They could really use Apple on that screen... 1smile.gif
post #38 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

Why do you think automobile manufacturers would be reluctant to make these? Surely they will make just as much profit or more from an auto drive car as a non-autodrive one?

The same reason we're 30 years since the creation of the first fully electric automobile and there are only FOUR models in existence right now, three of them from one company: they refuse to change for any reason at any time.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
Reply
post #39 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


Do they even run off of those at all?
Since they know where said locations are, control will be given back to the human for that.
Same thing.
Why do you imagine they'd be worse than a human? They'll be better than a human at that.
Uh… big whoop.
They'll fly right through horse crap, but anything else won't cause them to swerve wildly…
Again, construction, so human control.
Do you know what brakes are? 1confused.gif I don't get why that would be any different from the myriad other objects being sensed. The computer can react faster than a human.
That's the entire point of the system. Why would you need to bring it up?
Again, construction, which it knows about, so it would take said detour.
… Built… into the map…
And that's the fundamental system itself, again.
Traffic.

I agree with you that a computer won't be able to handle what I mentioned as human above until, oh… let's say 2030. But I'd also say that it won't be taken into consideration for the first run of product. You're sitting in the driver's seat at all times; the car would be able to transfer control back to you for those sections. And of course you'd have control whenever you desired otherwise.

 

That's why I said 30 years.  It's going to take at least that long until the infrastructure can be there for the system to know about all of the things you mentioned above.  I don't know what you meant about the entire point of the system handling bad drivers.  Until 100% of the cars on the road are self-driving that case must be handled.  And that's not going to happen for a REALLY long time.

 

I also think a system that requires a driver to be constantly watching it ready to take over, is not going to happen.  It's too dangerous, no-one is going to be watching the road constantly like they need to and bad things are going to happen while they're not paying attention.

post #40 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyb0731 View Post

Crummy

It's crummy everywhere. Unless you like unbathed hipsters, and peddlers.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
Reply
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