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Larry Ellison sees dismal future for Apple without Steve Jobs - Page 3

post #81 of 192

But…But…Samsung

post #82 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by murman View Post

Well its up to Apple to prove him wrong isn't it, we can huff and puff, but wtf's the use?

 

The burden of proof is on the side making the claim. One should not be allowed to make unproven statements and demand the other side to "prove him wrong."

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #83 of 192
Whatever. Ellison and Jobs were great friends and by all accounts each would take a bullet for the other. His comments demonstrate his loyalty to Steve, that's all.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #84 of 192

Friends with Larry Ellison...

 

Does this tells us something about Steve Jobs people skills?

 

The only thing that is bigger than Larry Ellison's ego is his boat. No wonder he has a hard time accepting that there's other smart people on the planet, besides himself.

 

I think the current management team at Apple is brilliant. Each of them in their own way, but brilliant, and dedicated.

post #85 of 192
Did anyone notice the amount of lip gloss he was wearing?
post #86 of 192

Did he not advise Steve Jobs not come back to Apple?

 

Even if Apple were to lose its mojo so be it!

 

I love Apple products and this planet earth has natural circle of birth and death. People and companies, success and failures included. No company or an entity succeeded for centuries together. It is a natural process.

 

This executive team still has fire in the belly and I hope/expect them to gradually lose out by next ten or so years, which is completely fine. If Apple finds ownership mentality people, that will be great otherwise they may stay afloat like IBM or Sony or even a bit better than them.

post #87 of 192

haha. for real.

post #88 of 192

The Apple is doomed because Jobs is gone logic is strange. It only works if, he was both a genius who was single handedly responsible for Apple's success. and at the same time completely inept at doing the thing he cared about most; building a great company, and building it to last.

post #89 of 192

It's like looking at a bunch of fish on the deck of a trawler flapping around madly; all vehemently denying their situation is still rosy.

 

Shakespeare as usual nailed it "the lady doth protest too much, methinks".  There's another one about shooting messengers.

 

I personally don't think Apple is doomed, I think it has passed it's peak, though, unless Steve's hinted at solution to the living room TV 'problem' is actually still in the works.  In defence of Cook, people trot out several recent Apple products like the iPad mini, iPhone 5 and iOS 7 and Mac Pro, but these are all derivative and are just evidence of Apples momentum.

 

I am astonished at all those belittling Steves' contribution and achievements.  It's like he's the new Woz, who people here like to look down their noses at so condescendingly.

 

Larry Ellison was paying Steve the greatest of possible compliments.  I doubt Steve would disapprove or bare any ill feeling towards him for them.

 

Cook can maintain Apple as a steady-state, prosperous company, but he won't be able to grow it through astonishing innovation as happened under Jobs, unless Ive is more of a dark horse than I think.

post #90 of 192
No Larry what you saw in the 90s was Apple being managed by the type of people others use now. Fortunately after trying a few if these what I call 'spreadsheet managers' they were let go in the 'reshuffle' and at least one admitted he was not a good fit to the Apple mold. What you forget is jonny Ive has designed the iMac before the return of Steve only for the then management to store it away because it was too radical for them. If the new Mac Pro is anything to go by the current leadership team won't be making that team which is hardly surprising as Jobs picked them himself.
post #91 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Andersen View Post

In contrast, Oracle could only get better with Ellison gone.  Their product quality is absolutely terrible.   

 
and dont let me get started on the hot mess that is JAVA.
post #92 of 192
Even though I love n miss Steve Jobs.
What I see is the people he left behind him,
the way in which they announce & talk products.

Some will say just marketing! You can never get that marketing Apples got.
I'm still eager watching every keynote, the companies run, finances, design n development.
Each one of these people Tim, Jonathan , Graig, Philip & Eddy plus all others under them
were - are a team that was also under Steve.

Steve brought these persons into Apple for a reason the more important thing is the
Brainstorming that goes on for the concept, creation, design of each product!

Even so when Apple is attacked daily in many ways just has it was when Steve was there.
post #93 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

We saw Apple toss out Steve Jobs and go down the crapper. We are now seeing Steve Jobs create an infrastructure of culture reflecting his ideals for Apple that took 13 years to build before he passed on.

The talent at Apple from vision to raw technical merit dwarfs anything Larry ever experienced at Oracle or prior to Oracle working for a company developing film for NASA. The culture permanent.

Steve made sure of it.

Well said.
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #94 of 192

Who cares!
 

post #95 of 192
The best response at this point is it is impossible to predict. But I can promise you Steve wouldn't have let those iOS 7 home screen icons out the door. Not that Jobs was perfect or always right; he most certainly was not.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #96 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

The best response at this point is it is impossible to predict. But I can promise you Steve wouldn't have let those iOS 7 home screen icons out the door. Not that Jobs was perfect or always right; he most certainly was not.
No you can't promise anything. Things like the hockey puck mouse, flower power and dalmatian iMacs came out on Jobs watch. It's so annoying these days that whatever someone doesn't like they claim Steve wouldn't have allowed it.
post #97 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by draugminaion View Post

The Apple is doomed because Jobs is gone logic is strange. It only works if, he was both a genius who was single handedly responsible for Apple's success. and at the same time completely inept at doing the thing he cared about most; building a great company, and building it to last.
You bring up a good point here. I'd love to see Larry answer that one.
post #98 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

We saw Apple toss out Steve Jobs and go down the crapper. We are now seeing Steve Jobs create an infrastructure of culture reflecting his ideals for Apple that took 13 years to build before he passed on.

The talent at Apple from vision to raw technical merit dwarfs anything Larry ever experienced at Oracle or prior to Oracle working for a company developing film for NASA. The culture permanent.

Steve made sure of it.

I was waiting for you to weigh in on the matter (post #37). Your opinion is much more valued, to me, than Larry Ellison's. Since Steve and he were such friends, I think his opinion is more biased than yours.

 

If he were a true friend of Steve's he'd have sufficient confidence in the company Steve built to last beyond Steve's personal existence.

To say that Apple is going down without Steve is on one hand saying he didn't know how to build a company, and it was only held together by Steves dictatorial tendencies and everyone's fear of his tantrums, and on the other hand devaluing the true genius of the people at Apple.

 

Most things Apple made weren't Steve's ideas, it was other people's ideas Steve decided to run with. The one thing that was typical "Steve" was to recognize that quality even if it costs more, drives demand in its own right. i.e. that saving a buck on each computer by using cheap materials doesn't result in more profit, because while it seems to increase the profit margin, it hurts overall sales. But these are insights everyone who hasn't their brains destroyed by a "business career" and some MBA program can have.

 

Steve's biggest asset was, that he didn't go to business school and didn't have to brown-nose and conform his way up the corporate ladder, which is why no company will ever have a CEO like Steve: not because there are not plenty of other Steve's around, but because no company has the guts to hire a guy like Steve, and instead they all go for the "safe" choices with an MBA and "years of experience", rather than for the crazy creative guy (and then put a good COO on his side).

post #99 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Andersen View Post

Quote:
"So really, what Apple does is deliver the ideas and concepts from about 35-40 years ago, made consumer friendly by modern hardware."

 

Maybe you just made a poor choice of words but 'ideas and concepts' are great only to a point.  They don't add real value to the world until they can be delivered in a practical manner.  Execution matters more.  Apple is really damn good at execution; they bring good ideas to life and they do it with great integrity and craftsmanship.  Oracle is basically the opposite.  Their craftsmanship is almost non-existent, except perhaps in their core DB product.  They excel, however, at buying existing product and making it worse.  Actually what they excel at is selling and extracting large maintenance fees.   

Actually, perfect choice of words. The problem with ideas and concepts is that one has to "get it". How difficult that seems to be was evident e.g. when NeXT (thanks to the news-worthiness factor of Jobs) put the spotlight on OOP/OOL. All of a sudden everyone was also going to be object oriented: Java, C++, Taligent, Cairo, blah, blah. None of them conquered the world in any significant way (besides modestly so Java), because they all didn't understand what OOP was really about: it's not about classes, it's about dynamics. 

C++ is a class based language, but it's not an object-oriented language (a term clearly defined by Alan Kay to include a fully dynamic runtime system). So because people didn't get the idea of OOP/OOL, they couldn't deliver.

The closest thing to a decent rip-off was Java, but even that took many iterations of the language with features piled upon features to finally arrive at a resonably dynamic system. In the process of course, the idea of write once deploy everywhere was lost, so was any consistency in APIs, or for that matter even the security (just about all severe security issues in OS X have lately been either Java or Flash related).

So even Java fell flat on its face, even though it's powering a bunch of enterprise stuff, and in mutated form, Android. In that sense, the wanna-be-but-can't-quite nature of Android vs. iOS perfectly mirrors the same relationship between Java and NeXTSTEP aka Cocoa/iOS/OSX

 

It is the ideas and concepts that matter, but without a proper understanding of these, one can't deliver them. Apple, under the pressure of marketing, the desire to dumb things down (often beyond where it makes sense), and due to integration with a variety of legacy infrastructure doesn't get all the concepts and ideas right, either (less so than NeXT did), but in the grand scheme of things, they are doing a significantly better job than anyone else in this industry.

 

Until someone with massive financial backing "gets it" better than Apple does, Apple is a safe bet, with or without Jobs. And frankly, with the type of "business" leadership all the other companies have, where CEOs couldn't even really explain their own technology or eco system beyond using the buzzwords the marketing department cooked up, the chances of that happening are pretty darn slim in the foreseeable future.

 

(And don't bet on the next generation: gadget savvy is not the same as technology savvy... Computer literacy seems to be going down, now up, Apple with it's oversimplified interfaces unfortunately one of the culprits. The promise of computers was that with the same mental effort, we could go further. Now, it's all about doing the same or less, but with less mental effort (i.e. letting our brains rot instead of challenging them). It's all about EZ (remember "easy" is too difficult to spell), not about expanding the capabilities of the human mind.

Apple once had a phrase for their educational marketing: "Computers - wheels for the mind" (picture a brain on a bicycle or F1 car) Unfortunately, today it has turned into "Computers - wheelchairs for the mind" (picture a rotting brain slumped on a wheelchair))


Edited by rcfa - 8/13/13 at 4:46am
post #100 of 192
What a remarkable claim by Ellison. Apple is so far ahead of its competition in terms of developing a coherent, secure, flexible, profitable and expandable hardware/software platform that it will take the better part of a decade for competitors to catch up to Apple, even if Apple stands still.

So if Apple's future is 'dismal' then what about the future of 'wanna-be' Apple competitors, like Google and Microsoft? What is a word more dismal than dismal?
post #101 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Seriously, why do these people think they can see the future so clearly. Somebody could come along that has the skills that Steve Job had. I can't believe he was that unique as a human.

 

You're right, and you're wrong: yes, there are likely plenty of potential Steve's walking this planet. But no, they will never get hired, because no company, including Apple, would have the guts to do such a gamble. Instead they will hire someone with X years of experience, who has business credentials, an MBA, and generally went through the process that kills every Jobs' like feature in the mind.

Once the person is hired, they'll then send them to the Apple-internal executive training program, in an effort to "instill Jobs' values and thinking" into the hired brain. Maybe that double-brainwash works, time will tell; but it won't ever be the kind of raw creativity Jobs had, because that sort of person won't be hired.

 

A guy with the background of Jobs (widespread "unfocused" interests, college drop out, smart, creative, socially non-conforming, etc.) is more likely to deliver your pizza than ever having a chance to run a fortune 500 company, unless he founds that company, and that's only possible in entirely new markets or markets without network effects (which create massive barriers of entry as even Jobs at NeXT had to discover). So maybe a guy like that will dominate 3D printing, or dominate an industry with no network effects (e.g. furniture, cooking gear, etc.), but unless US business suddenly becomes risk friendly, don't expect to see someone like that in computing.

post #102 of 192
"...Jobs was an incredible inventor."

That's where he gets it wrong. Jobs never invented shit. He appropriated other's ideas. He took things that either his employees or other companies were working on and then set really high standards on how to do it at Apple. I don't think Steve ever had an original idea - I just think he saw things, imagined how they SHOULD work, then beat his employees until they got it perfect - not just "good enough" like any other company would settle for, but perfect. That's Apple's secret to success. Perfection in presentation. It looks like invention and innovation but it's not. It's just a lot of hard work and nothing more. I think Apple still has a lot of hard workers left.
post #103 of 192
I have to agree. To draw an exaggerated black and white picture, any decent management team would have a hard time screwing up the current wave of success.
I'm also sure that apple employs great people with excellent skills and ideas. However, what's going to be missed is the equal black and white attitude of SJ plus his ability to just make things happen, wrong or right.
A recent example is for me the radio and possibly the "iTV" concept where negotiations with content providers drag out it seems to me much longer than I would have expected them to last under SJ leadership. Clear vision and focus and bullying people is what it takes to excel.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, my opinion, man.
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Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, my opinion, man.
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post #104 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

Somebody could come along that has the same skills as Steve Jobs had....but it's highly unlikely. There are only a few people in any given century that stand out from the crowd. 50+ years from now and beyond, Steve Jobs will be known as the Edison/Ford/Picaso (all wrapped up in one) of our time.

 

It's the "all wrapped up in one" thing that made him so outstanding.....and, yes, that unique.

 

 

People get over that Jobs personality cult. He didn't walk on water.

 

I met the guy. He was great, but among 8 billion people and counting, there are plenty of people just as great as he is. Just as there are many other Picasso's, Edison's or Fords. They just didn't happen to be at the right place at the right time, they were born too early or too late, or born into a war zone, or didn't have the connections or supportive parents, no money, opportunity, etc.

 

Even if you read the celebratory biography of Jobs, and pay some attention, it's clear just how much luck Steve had: there are dozens and dozens of points mentioned (and many unmentioned)  where things could have gone ever so slightly differently, and all the genius of Jobs would have ended in a dismal failure.

 

It's just like all these commencement speeches: Believe in yourself, just go for it, etc. Of course, the people who give these speeches happened to be both talented and lucky enough that this approach worked for them. But the 99% of people who "just go for it" and fall flat and end up in bankruptcy court, they never get to make a commencement speech that says that only a gambler will "just go for it", and that it's a gamble whether to make it big, or end up failing massively.

 

Can't win the lottery if you don't play, but it's incorrect to say that having the will to win and playing the lottery will lead to a win. The sort of new age psycho babble that claims you'll achieve everything if you want it enough is just crock...

 

Back to Jobs: he was unique, just as every other human being is unique. But he wasn't irreplaceable just like no other human being is irreplaceable. There are plenty of people like him, the question is, do we foster a culture in which people like him can succeed, or do we foster a culture that demands conformity.

 

Let's face it: what company will hire anyone (except maybe for the shipping department to fill boxes) who talks about his LSD trips and is a college drop out?

A guy like that maybe has a chance running a local ad agency or starting a custom furniture shop, and he'll be lucky to get off the ground and make more than just to live.

post #105 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by William Brown View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

 

We at NeXT were very pissed off at Isaacson's Biography of Steve. He dicked over NeXT and PIXAR as if they were brief interludes. Without NeXT Apple is history.

NeXT deserves the credit they are due.  They are like the Garfunkel of Steve Job's History, or perhaps the Ringo Starr in his Star.

 

Wrong, to stick with your analogy: they are the John Lennon in that equation, while Apple is the sugary McCartney that appeals to the girls, Lennon/NeXT is where the substance came from.

post #106 of 192
Steve didn't invent shit. He was a great manager, who said yes or no and the products hinged on it. Anyone else can do it too, with the right head on their shoulders.
post #107 of 192
Of course, Ellison is ignoring the fact that none of Apple's competitors have Steve Jobs either, so I guess the entire tech sector is supposed to be doomed?
post #108 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by starbird73 View Post

Being ousted for being who you are abruptly, and knowing your end is near and setting the company up to succeed without you are two different things.

Plus, Larry, you know who else already saw what Apple is like without Steve? Their current leadership.

Steve Jobs himself said his greatest invention was Apple, not its products.

Apple is full of talented people in a business structured like no other. It became, and will remain, one of the most successful companies precisely because they don't do what everyone else thinks they should.
post #109 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

We saw Apple toss out Steve Jobs and go down the crapper. We are now seeing Steve Jobs create an infrastructure of culture reflecting his ideals for Apple that took 13 years to build before he passed on.

The talent at Apple from vision to raw technical merit dwarfs anything Larry ever experienced at Oracle or prior to Oracle working for a company developing film for NASA. The culture permanent.

Steve made sure of it.

Actually for a while, Apple was doing quite well. I worked for a reseller right around the time Jobs left, I saw a lot of increased sales of Apple products.  I will agree that Apple would have been a LOT better had they spit out OS X a lot sooner, but Apple was spitting out decent products in their day, with a few mistakes along the way, but Jobs & Co.  (Tim Cook, and many others that are still there) were part of the rebirth of the company.  Their sales didn't really plummet until just after Windows 95 came out, since no one really used anything prior to Windows other than DOS.  When Windows NT came out, Mac sales started to dwindle, but at one point Apple had around 25% market share from what I remember, even without Jobs.

 

I remember back in the mid to late 80's when there were sanctions on shipping computers with a certain spec to countries like Russia.  in the mid to late 80's, it wasn't common place for homes to have computers.  but nowadays, it's not uncommon for families to own many computers, one for each member of the family.  Back then, a lot of families didn't even have one.

 

When I was going to college in the 80's and part of the 90's, most students didn't own a computer, they used the college computers, which weren't always the latest and greatest.  Nowadays, you don't go to college without one..  Now students should not only have a computer, but a tablet as well.  The same thing with cell phones.  It wasn't that long ago when people didn't own a Cell phone, now even homeless people have them and now many own more than one.  I see some carry two phones around, one that's supplied by the company they work for and one they use for personal use.


Edited by drblank - 8/13/13 at 6:16am
post #110 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by cnocbui View Post
I personally don't think Apple is doomed, I think it has passed it's peak, though, unless Steve's hinted at solution to the living room TV 'problem' is actually still in the works.  In defence of Cook, people trot out several recent Apple products like the iPad mini, iPhone 5 and iOS 7 and Mac Pro, but these are all derivative and are just evidence of Apples momentum.

 

iPhone, iPad, iPod touch: are all derivatives of each other, best summed up under the category iOS (which aside from touch GUI is a derivative of OS X aka NeXTSTEP), and OS X is just a rebranded NeXTSTEP.

 

So under Jobs tenure at Apple/NeXT/Apple, these are the ground breaking products:

 

Apple ][, Lisa/Mac, NeXT, iPod-classic, iOS touch GUI

 

So you look at 5 game changers. Not more. Jobs was a great spin-meister and could make every derivative product look like it was something fundamentally new, maybe a talent Cook lacks, but to expect that Apple should have every year or every couple of years a game changer, that's expecting something not even Jobs delivered, much less any other company.

 

The standards by which Apple, it's current management team, and even Jobs post-mortem are judged are like an inverse of the RDF that Jobs projected during his lifetime. Maybe an odd instance of historic justice, but certainly nothing that resembles accurate perception of reality.

 

If Apple releases a significant new product every 5 years or so, it's perfectly on track to keeping up with its past record.

post #111 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

The best response at this point is it is impossible to predict. But I can promise you Steve wouldn't have let those iOS 7 home screen icons out the door. Not that Jobs was perfect or always right; he most certainly was not.

So you knew Jobs? Anyone who says "Steve wouldn't do..." is full of it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rcfa View Post

You're right, and you're wrong: yes, there are likely plenty of potential Steve's walking this planet. But no, they will never get hired, because no company, including Apple, would have the guts to do such a gamble. Instead they will hire someone with X years of experience, who has business credentials, an MBA, and generally went through the process that kills every Jobs' like feature in the mind.
Once the person is hired, they'll then send them to the Apple-internal executive training program, in an effort to "instill Jobs' values and thinking" into the hired brain. Maybe that double-brainwash works, time will tell; but it won't ever be the kind of raw creativity Jobs had, because that sort of person won't be hired.

A guy with the background of Jobs (widespread "unfocused" interests, college drop out, smart, creative, socially non-conforming, etc.) is more likely to deliver your pizza than ever having a chance to run a fortune 500 company, unless he founds that company, and that's only possible in entirely new markets or markets without network effects (which create massive barriers of entry as even Jobs at NeXT had to discover). So maybe a guy like that will dominate 3D printing, or dominate an industry with no network effects (e.g. furniture, cooking gear, etc.), but unless US business suddenly becomes risk friendly, don't expect to see someone like that in computing.

Either you're very bitter or just clueless. Apple has a design department. You don't need an MBA for that.
post #112 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Steve didn't invent shit. He was a great manager, who said yes or no and the products hinged on it. Anyone else can do it too, with the right head on their shoulders.

Actually, he is listed on several patents, so saying that Steve didn't invent shit as you put it is being ignorant.  He also had vision of what he wanted and would direct the engineers to create it, which is what typically happens.  Ballmer doesn't invent anything since he never really did anything other than marketing.  But in the beginning of Apple, Jobs was actually part of the design process where he would send Woz memos of changes he wanted to be made.  I saw one of those memos and in those days, it actually was technically oriented.  He may not have the strengths of being a hardware/software engineer, but he did have a lot of say so in how products were designed.  He just didn't have the background as a design engineer, but he STILL was the visionary of and was still involved with a lot of what turns out to be the final product.

 

Actually, in the beginning, he was a horrible manager. He was good at marketing, but he was the one that led the Macintosh team, while Woz still piddled around with the Apple II product line.

post #113 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrrodriguez View Post

Okay so Jobs brought us the new age of tablets and touch screen smartphones and nice UX design.

What has Tim Cook done? iPad mini is still a tablet by the way, so it still falls under Jobs.

Uhm... how about building one of the best supply chains on the planet? Apple's piles of cash and ability to actually manufacture and sell millions of iDevices in a very short amount of time is all Tim Cook's doing. Without Cook Apple wouldn't have nearly the amount of cash that they do, and the press would be all over Apple's inability to meet demand. It's not like Tim Cook walked in from another company after Jobs passed away. Go read up on him and learn for yourself.

 

It's not the CEO's job description to invent or even refine the products they sell. A CEO can do that, but the job is to run the company. Tim Cook is doing a bang up job of that.

post #114 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by rcfa View Post

 

iPhone, iPad, iPod touch: are all derivatives of each other, best summed up under the category iOS (which aside from touch GUI is a derivative of OS X aka NeXTSTEP), and OS X is just a rebranded NeXTSTEP.

 

So under Jobs tenure at Apple/NeXT/Apple, these are the ground breaking products:

 

Apple ][, Lisa/Mac, NeXT, iPod-classic, iOS touch GUI

 

So you look at 5 game changers. Not more. Jobs was a great spin-meister and could make every derivative product look like it was something fundamentally new, maybe a talent Cook lacks, but to expect that Apple should have every year or every couple of years a game changer, that's expecting something not even Jobs delivered, much less any other company.

 

The standards by which Apple, it's current management team, and even Jobs post-mortem are judged are like an inverse of the RDF that Jobs projected during his lifetime. Maybe an odd instance of historic justice, but certainly nothing that resembles accurate perception of reality.

 

If Apple releases a significant new product every 5 years or so, it's perfectly on track to keeping up with its past record.

Cook isn't nearly as charismatic as Jobs.  I see Cook as a manager not a visionary, but the visionary tasks is more left up to Jony, Craig and other managers in charge of the product lines they have.  Which isn't a bad thing, I just wish Cook would become a little more comfortable when he does presentations, but there aren't many that can easily slide into the position of taking Job's place from a charisma point of view.

post #115 of 192
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by rcfa View Post

You're right, and you're wrong: yes, there are likely plenty of potential Steve's walking this planet. But no, they will never get hired, because no company, including Apple, would have the guts to do such a gamble. Instead they will hire someone with X years of experience, who has business credentials, an MBA, and generally went through the process that kills every Jobs' like feature in the mind.
Once the person is hired, they'll then send them to the Apple-internal executive training program, in an effort to "instill Jobs' values and thinking" into the hired brain. Maybe that double-brainwash works, time will tell; but it won't ever be the kind of raw creativity Jobs had, because that sort of person won't be hired.

A guy with the background of Jobs (widespread "unfocused" interests, college drop out, smart, creative, socially non-conforming, etc.) is more likely to deliver your pizza than ever having a chance to run a fortune 500 company, unless he founds that company, and that's only possible in entirely new markets or markets without network effects (which create massive barriers of entry as even Jobs at NeXT had to discover). So maybe a guy like that will dominate 3D printing, or dominate an industry with no network effects (e.g. furniture, cooking gear, etc.), but unless US business suddenly becomes risk friendly, don't expect to see someone like that in computing.

Either you're very bitter or just clueless. Apple has a design department. You don't need an MBA for that.

 

I'm neither. I'm just being realistic. The design department doesn't matter, because we're talking about a guy running the company, i.e. a Steve Jobs replacement, not about some minion working below Jonny Ives.

 

Second, even Jonny Ives has a proper college degree (i.e. not a drop out like Steve), and certainly isn't vocal about his drug experiences as Jobs was.

 

As far as business school goes: been there, done that, was bored and disgusted by it and then studied CompSci and AI (using my own NeXT at a time when it was close to impossible to get one). Watched my friends who went to BS become more boring and less creative as each year of their career went by. Couldn't say the same thing about my more creative friends (musicians, designers, chefs...)

The only thing the BS guys are good at, is using their "authority" to piss on every piece of good design that comes along their way and destroy it. "My kids think green would look better", "My wife thinks there should be a line here", "I think that's too big and bold"...

post #116 of 192
Who cares? I mean, if Apple falls, investors can go somewhere else, consumers can go somewhere else. If Apple keeps rocking, everything's also fine.

It's a company. They do cool stuff.

World's not pinned on Apple living or dying, guys.

Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

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Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

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post #117 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Andersen View Post

In contrast, Oracle could only get better with Ellison gone.  Their product quality is absolutely terrible.   
 

I'd still exchange my position with his. More millions.

Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

Reply

Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

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post #118 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

 

The burden of proof is on the side making the claim. One should not be allowed to make unproven statements and demand the other side to "prove him wrong."

 

The burden of proof is on the future, if it's anywhere. Ellison's claim is impossible to prove or disprove at present, as it's a prediction about the future. We'll see.

 

Despite all the vitriol in this thread, I have some sympathy for his prediction. If Tim Cook, Jony Ive, et al. were visionaries on the level of Jobs, why were they working for Jobs rather than founding their own companies? But who knows. Maybe Jobs found the right people. 

post #119 of 192

@Arlor: it seems to be a philosophical question here. 

America tends to emphasize individuals over communities. In this view, a being that is a visionary on levels far beyond others is possible. Typical of that is Time's Person of the Year. Other cultures see the flow of time as less attached to individual performance. In their view, Steve Jobs is a bright individual who was at the right time, in the right place, with the right advisors and great charisma. 

 

Why would Steve be more irreplaceable than Warren Buffett or Eisenhower or Bill Gates? Bill for example, did foresee a world where everyone would have their own access to the Web, and pushed IE to kill Netscape, to control that. Steve obviously did not see that, or at least have any great solution to get himself in control of the Web at that time.

 

Steve Jobs was an amazing individual. Saying he was irreplaceable and Apple is doomed not only ignores the value of Cook, Ive et alii, but it also means that Apple has always been irrelevant as a community, and only Steve mattered. I don't think Steve would agree with that.

Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

Reply

Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

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post #120 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

FU Larry. Never could stand the guy. Really hate his guts now. And just what exactly did Steve INVENT Larry? 1rolleyes.gif

 

Define "invent." Jobs most certainly was the driving force, the spiritual leader, the idea guy behind the Mac, the iPod, the iPhone, the iPad. None of these products would have existed without Jobs. In fact none of these devices would even exist today anywhere without Jobs. Do you really think Samsung, Ballmer, HP, Michael Dell, or any of them could have come up with these devices on their own? Nope, we would still have Samsung phones that look like the ones they made befroe the iPhone came out.

 

You could argue the same thing about Edison or Ford. Technically they invented nothing, they were the same guiding force pushing their teams. They were the visionaries. So yes, in my opinion, Steve Jobs invented a lot.

 

And if one truly believes history repeats itself then Ellison is correct. Apple fell flat on its face without Jobs the first time around. It remains to be seen if Jobs did in fact inject his DNA into Apple the second time around. This Fall will settle that question. And Apple does not need to actually fail financially for Ellison's prediction to come true. All Apple has to do is become a "normal" company without new ideas, clinging to what worked in the past. That will make Ellison's prediction valid.

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