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Apple, Inc. shares cross above 200 day moving average

post #1 of 15
Thread Starter 
Shares in Apple, Inc. have crossed above their 200 day moving average for the first time since plunging below the key indicator last fall.

200 day AAPL
Source: Forbes


Additionally, "activist investor" Carl Icahn has since reported having a "large position" in Apple, calling it in "extremely undervalued" in a tweet, and following up with advice for Apple's chief executive to buy back even more of the company's own stock.

August 13, 2013


A longer term trend upward



A "200 day moving average" provides a smoothed out trajectory of a share's recent prices, calculated by looking at its average price over a little more than the last six months.

The indicator is used by investors to visualize overall trends, without the distraction of day to day "noise" and short term irrationality of the market. The news was reported by DividendChannel.com via Forbes, which plotted the moving average trend against recent share prices (above).

Over the previous week, Apple's share prices spiked upward on Monday after the news of the Obama administration vetoing the International Trade Commission's import ban, and again jolted upward after the ITC approved an import ban against some Samsung models and after news leaked of an earlier than expected iPhone release.

In between the two Mondays, however, investor profit-taking and other factors erased the initial short term gain.

AppleInsider only describes correlations between an event and a stock's price change as just a possible contributing factor, and does not provide any recommendations or advice related to stock transactions in the extremely volatile and often irrationally unpredictable market. It's generally impossible to associate a precise correlation between stock price changes and a particular event.

It's generally impossible to associate a precise correlation between stock price changes and a particular event. Over a longer term, a moving average can provide a stronger indicator of where a stock is heading, however, and is watched closely by many investors.

After peaking above $700 in mid September last year, Apple shares continued a downward trend that only began to flatten out in the second calendar quarter of 2013. As the stock recovered and then gave back gains, the moving average continued to decline.

Apple's shares today reached above $475, crossing their 200 day moving average of $471. That figure has been dropping along with Apple's price decline, showing a rear view mirror look at where the stock has been trending. [Update: following Icahn's tweet the stock closed today at $489.57.]

Upward trend may be spurred by iPhone release date



Render
Artist's conception of a possible plastic iPhone. Source: AppleInsider


Continued upward movement by Apple shares over the last two days may reflect investors' increasing realization of the strategic importance of Apple's rumored iPhone event date, reported by Ina Fried of Wall Street Journal to occur September 10.Continued upward movement by Apple shares over the last two days may reflect investors' increasing realization of the strategic importance of Apple's rumored iPhone event date.

The reported date occurs at the end of the IFA Berlin trade show, promising to distract from new product releases planned by Samsung and possibly HTC, the same way Apple's historical Macworld Expo events regularly sucked the excitement from the Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Shows headlined by Microsoft.

At the same time, and likely of even greater importance, an earlier than expected release of new iPhones and iOS 7 on September 10 would potentially provide Apple with three full weekends affording either or both presale and launch sales within the fall quarter.

A later iPhone launch in October would shift those critical sales into the winter quarter, providing market research firms with another relatively slow quarter to browbeat the company over its supposed dearth of innovation and purported inability to release new devices during seasonally slow sales quarters.

Release cycles coordinated with peak sales



Samsung recently launched its flagship Galaxy S 4 smartphone and Galaxy Note 8 tablet in the spring quarter ending in June, but then reported a significant drop in sequential tablet sales and no discernible positive impact on the company's reported profits.

In contrast, Apple pulled out of the Macworld Expo after January 2009, noting at the time that "trade shows have become a very minor part of how Apple reaches its customers," but also indicating that the January timing of the event didn't fit into its actual sales cycles.

The company has increasingly worked to adjust the release its new consumer products to occur immediately before peak holiday sales, similar to the launch timing of similarly cyclical video game consoles from Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony. Last year, Apple overhauled nearly its entire product lineup for the holiday quarter.

iMac


The aggressive move involved a rushed release of Apple's thin new iMac, which ended up being delayed until deep into November and December, resulting in Apple's chief executive Tim Cook later admitting, "In retrospect, yes, I sort of wish we had done it after the turn of the year. Customers wouldn't have had to have waited as long as they did."
post #2 of 15

Where the **** are all the trolls who were calling for Cook's head, campaigning that he be shown the door because of the stock, and predicting it would keep barreling downwards (to $200) if he stayed? And that the stock was a primary indicator of the health of the company and the confidence people have in it? And that nothing would bring the stock back up short of Cook's ouster? Will they apologize or aknowledge that were wrong? No, of course not, because these people are cowards, always unafraid to make matter-of-fact, confident predictions and conclusions based on their own personal hatred, calling for the heads of Apple executives, and predicting the demise of the company if their asinine actions are not met, and without once showing a shred of humility that their matter-of-fact conclusions/predictions might in fact be incorrect. 

post #3 of 15

Thank god I bought more this morning :)

post #4 of 15
slurpy, When does anyone who ever predicts a stock move in any direction for any reason EVER admit that they were wrong? Just. Doesn't. Happen. That's why we should all ignore every single one of them. Sitting on my AAPL for now and some time to come.
post #5 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

Where the **** are all the trolls who were calling for Cook's head

 

One of the downsides of the Internet is that stupid people and cowards have a voice too. I mean even somebody like me gets to post drivel.

post #6 of 15
Why is the stock up almost 5% today? Is it the Icahn thing?
I'm not complaining... I just don't understand the short term movements of AAPL.
post #7 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by jakeb View Post

Why is the stock up almost 5% today? Is it the Icahn thing?
I'm not complaining... I just don't understand the short term movements of AAPL.

 

I would say the usual build up to a new product release date. The day after the release AAPL will tank. This has happened a number of times.

post #8 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Woelfel View Post

slurpy, When does anyone who ever predicts a stock move in any direction for any reason EVER admit that they were wrong? Just. Doesn't. Happen. That's why we should all ignore every single one of them. Sitting on my AAPL for now and some time to come.

 

I just wish those people who use dropping stock to conclude shitty leadership or something, or as conclusive evidence that Apple is going downhill, should realize the extent of their stupidity, and the fluctuations of stock are not tied to any real, tangible success. There's no real reason Apple stock should be worth $390 a few months ago and $480 today, or $700 at it's peak last year. The state of the company is fundamentally the same, and arguably healthier and more successful today than when the stock was several hundred dollars pricier. It's simply noise, based on self-serving and influencial individuals, and irrational an fickle expectations by those who know nothing of the industry, but the trolls and manipulators use it to smear the company. 


Edited by Slurpy - 8/13/13 at 2:36pm
post #9 of 15

AAPL stock has swayed so much recently, you need sea-sickness pills to stay onboard. This can't be good for investors, employees, or executives.

post #10 of 15

But ... but Apple is doomed! Everyone knows that! /s

post #11 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by jakeb View Post

Why is the stock up almost 5% today? Is it the Icahn thing?
I'm not complaining... I just don't understand the short term movements of AAPL.

 

Yes, "the Icahn thing".

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #12 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by jakeb View Post

Why is the stock up almost 5% today? Is it the Icahn thing?
I'm not complaining... I just don't understand the short term movements of AAPL.

 

We were doing pretty good this morning, we broke the 200 DMA that was at 471 and were at about 475 when Icahn dropped a boom. Without him I was expecting to be near $500 before sept 10th.  Now it looks we will be over it, maybe even this week.

 

The wildcard I had was a possible China Mobile deal, it would have made the same reaction we got today. But that Icahn thing came out of nowhere. That being said, we still could get a China Mobile deal on top of it.

post #13 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Woelfel View Post

slurpy, When does anyone who ever predicts a stock move in any direction for any reason EVER admit that they were wrong? Just. Doesn't. Happen. That's why we should all ignore every single one of them. Sitting on my AAPL for now and some time to come.


Wrong. I've admitted it on here at least twice.

 

AAPL can be very unpredictable. Sometimes it seems to defy technical analysis.

 

Which makes me wonder if breaking the 200 even means anything.

Hmmmmmm...
Reply
Hmmmmmm...
Reply
post #14 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


Wrong. I've admitted it on here at least twice.

AAPL can be very unpredictable. Sometimes it seems to defy technical analysis.

Which makes me wonder if breaking the 200 even means anything.

It's the biggest company in the world that still acts almost like a penny stock.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #15 of 15

Won't be surprised if Samsung tried to bribe iCahn to do the same

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