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Apple on track to build 5.2M 'iPhone 5S,' 8.4M 'iPhone 5C' units this quarter

post #1 of 35
Thread Starter 
Apple's anticipated plastic "iPhone 5C" is reportedly on track to outship the high-end "iPhone 5S" this quarter, as the latter faces apparent production issues associated with a new fingerprint sensor.

Flash
Artist's rendering of Apple's upcoming iPhone 5S. Source: AppleInsider


Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities, who has a strong history of accurately predicting Apple's future product plans, said in a note on Monday that Apple is expected to ship 8.4 million "iPhone 5C" units in the current September quarter. But difficulties in building the top-of-the-line "iPhone 5S" will reportedly limit that device to just 5.2 million units for the quarter.

However, unlike the iPad mini, which has consistently outsold the full-size iPad since its debut, the "iPhone 5C" is not expected to become the best selling iPhone. Kuo expects Apple to be able to increase "iPhone 5S" shipments by 438 percent in the holiday 2013 quarter, reaching 28 million units in the three-month span.

That would put the "iPhone 5S" ahead of the "iPhone 5C" in terms of shipments for the quarter, according to Kuo. He sees shipments of the new plastic iPhone growing 122 percent quarter over quarter to 18.7 million units in the December frame.

"Despite yield rate issues with fingerprint sensor module and casing, a timetable ensuring improvement has been established, which eases our concerns over 5S production," Kuo said. "We hold a positive view on growth momentum along the iPhone supply chain, for which we expect a jump from August followed by sustained growth into September and (the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013)."

One key reason for the larger number of "iPhone 5C" units this quarter is the fact that the device is expected to feature largely the same components as the current iPhone 5, except with a new plastic frame. According to Kuo, Apple manufacturing partner Foxconn began production of a new TDD-LTE supporting "iPhone 5C" model for carrier China Mobile in August, which was earlier than expected. He believes Apple is working to stock up on units in time for China's October Golden Holiday.

Last week, Kuo revealed that Apple is expected to offer the "iPhone 5S" in new gold color and 128-gigabyte options. He has also claimed since early this year that the new high-end iPhone will include a fingerprint sensor under the home button.

Apple is expected to hold a media event on Sept. 10 to announce its new iPhone lineup for the fall of 2013. Kuo believes the "iPhone 5C" will replace the iPhone 5, while the iPhone 4S will live on as Apple's new low-end option.
post #2 of 35
Is there a reason AI feels the need to break up Kuo's report in to separate news articles? Does he really deserve that much space here?
post #3 of 35
Cannibation problem coming up ?
post #4 of 35

8.4 M of 5Cs? Apple is betting big on it.

post #5 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazy_mac_lover View Post

Cannibation problem coming up ?

are you speaking of an increase in masturbation while high on weed?

 

Cannabalizaton... The obvious response here is that

a) the lower price will drive into previously uncompetitive markets

       better to sell 3 million more units at $400/25% margin in china/india and other prepaid markets, than none.

b) better to make 25% of $400 than 0% of $625 (Apple would prefer to self cannabalize, than be eaten from the outside).

post #6 of 35
So he expects 46.7 million iPhones vs 47.8 million a year ago for the holiday quarter.
post #7 of 35

Total iPhone sales will be over 50M in holiday quarter.  This guy is an idiot.  Apple just crushed the all-time iphone sales for Q3 and he thinks sales will be down with an addition of a midrange phone?

post #8 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

are you speaking of an increase in masturbation while high on weed?

Cannabalizaton... The obvious response here is that
a) the lower price will drive into previously uncompetitive markets
       better to sell 3 million more units at $400/25% margin in china/india and other prepaid markets, than none.
b) better to make 25% of $400 than 0% of $625 (Apple would prefer to self cannabalize, than be eaten from the outside).

Look at the iPad mini . Before it launched , aapl is targeted to be $1000 . After , people said $300 .
post #9 of 35
Less than 15 MM 5S/5C iPhones in the current qtr = Fail. /s
post #10 of 35

"...be able to increase "iPhone 5S" shipments by 438 percent..."

 

what a garbage piece of information....438 percent...1biggrin.gif

post #11 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by poksi View Post

"...be able to increase "iPhone 5S" shipments by 438 percent..."

 

what a garbage piece of information....438 percent...1biggrin.gif

Your jealous because although you can speculate, you cannot speculate to all 3 significant places.

Im surprised this analist left of the decimal part, perhaps its in that decimal where he can hedge his bets.

post #12 of 35
The iPhone 5C will most likely include a non retina display.
post #13 of 35
Originally Posted by quest01 View Post
The iPhone 5C will most likely include a non retina display.


Ludicrous nonsense. 

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #14 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by quest01 View Post

The iPhone 5C will most likely include a non retina display.

..and a 6.5" screen ¡
"Fibonacci: As easy as 1, 1, 2, 3..."
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"Fibonacci: As easy as 1, 1, 2, 3..."
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post #15 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Quote:
The iPhone 5C will most likely include a non retina display.


Ludicrous nonsense. 

as contrasted with reasonable nonsense
post #16 of 35
Originally Posted by quinney View Post
as contrasted with reasonable nonsense

 

Reasonable nonsense is Apple coming out with their own iOS game. 1tongue.gif

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #17 of 35

First off, the title seem to suggest it´s legit. Although it´s an estimation by an outside analyst. 

Secondly, these numbers reflect a week at best for the quarter. Apple will reveal the new phones on 10th of September, but always wait at least 2 weeks before they start shipping. That mean we´re looking at September 22.-> quarter end. Just about one week of supply for the quarter. So I would say these numbers are pretty decent in that regard.

 

Hope they knock a home-run with the 5S/5C - and I hope they announce China Mobile as a new provider.

post #18 of 35
Which is more likely:

A) The iPhone "5C" will sell less than the new iPhone for above vague reasoning

B) The iPhone "5C" will sell more than the new iPhone for the exact same reason iPad mini, iPod mini, nano etc. did
post #19 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by hydr View Post

First off, the title seem to suggest it´s legit. Although it´s an estimation by an outside analyst. 

I agree.  These types of articles should be categorised or the title prefaced with an "Analyst" tag, to be clear that its mostly a bunch of conjecture.

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post #20 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by quest01 View Post

The iPhone 5C will most likely include a non retina display.

 

Highly doubtful as that would mean yet another screen and resolution that needed to be supported. We've seen the leaked case, if they're true it's the same size as the iPhone 5, meaning a non-retina 4" screen would be 568x320. So either apps would need to be changed, or they'd put up black bars like on the iPhone 5, but for older apps that are non-retina, and developers would need to develop for this screen, plus the 4" retina screen, plus also the 3GS screen. Highly doubtful.

post #21 of 35
Originally Posted by TimmyDax View Post
A) The iPhone "5C" will sell less than the new iPhone for above vague reasoning

B) The iPhone "5C" will sell more than the new iPhone for the exact same reason iPad mini, iPod mini, nano etc. did

 

Neither. The iPhone 5C will sell less than the new iPhone because the new one isn't the same hardware (and worse construction) we've had for the past year.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #22 of 35
@jason and sog:

The analyst never said how many iPhone 4S's that he thinks Apple will ship in the holiday quarter, which should be quite a healthy number. Adding those into the total for the other two, and you will see that these numbers make a little bit more sense and will involve a healthy YOY growth in iPhone unit sales.
post #23 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

So he expects 46.7 million iPhones vs 47.8 million a year ago for the holiday quarter.

Nope, he expects a total of 46.7 million iPHone 5S and iPhone 5C.  You still have to add in the iPhone 4S, which he says will still be carried (but he didn't provide an estimate for).  SOunds reasonable enough to me.

 

Thompson 

post #24 of 35
Quote:
The iPhone 5C will most likely include a non retina display.

I think that's unlikely because the last 3 generations of iPhone have been retina and no non-retina devices have been on sale for best part of a year. Developers will get a break at some point and stop supporting non-retina (just like iPhone 3G is now fading and 3GS won't run iOS 7). I think the debate is more about the size of the display: only one generation has had the bigger (4") display and 2 of the 3 models currently on sale still have the smaller one. So the question is when does 3.5" die?

 

As noted elsewhere, I doubt the "5C" will use iPhone 5 radios - the LTE has insufficient bands and (I think, open to correction here) that iPhone 5 does not support TDD LTE (primarily useful for China but not listed in the spec on the Apple Store). I think a value-engineered (ie cheaper) iPhone 5 electronics is more likely than putting development effort into enhancing a previous design.

OS X and iOS user

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OS X and iOS user

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post #25 of 35

Yep, makes sense. Always about this time before a release the rumors and predictions and leaks get so 'convulted' that even Jony Ive couldn't make them simple.

post #26 of 35
iPhone 5C - for the "Common Person" comes in many popular colors, in 8, 16, 32 gig size.

iPhone 5S - for the "Sophicated Person" comes in black, silver, gold (for Sophicated Tastes) in 32, 64, 128 gig size. %uD83D%uDE0F
post #27 of 35

Will the please just hurry! My iPhone 4 is on life support due to too may 'dropped' (cough) calls : ) 

post #28 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Is there a reason AI feels the need to break up Kuo's report in to separate news articles? Does he really deserve that much space here?

 

More advertising impressions! 

post #29 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimmyDax View Post

Which is more likely:

A) The iPhone "5C" will sell less than the new iPhone for above vague reasoning

B) The iPhone "5C" will sell more than the new iPhone for the exact same reason iPad mini, iPod mini, nano etc. did

C) It's foolish to even hazard a guess because no one even knows if a 5C exists, much less its features and price.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #30 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimmyDax View Post

Which is more likely:

A) The iPhone "5C" will sell less than the new iPhone for above vague reasoning

B) The iPhone "5C" will sell more than the new iPhone for the exact same reason iPad mini, iPod mini, nano etc. did

 

C) 5C will sell more due to price. 

 

iPad mini, iPod mini, iPod nano were form factor changes* while the 5C is rumored to be the same form factor, but cheaper materials. Although my guess has always been that the cheaper line would be the 4's form factor to differentiate the low end and high end. Having a 5, 5s and 5c, all having the same form factor in the market all at the same time just seems odd. I know the 5 will be faded out over time, but that leaves the cheap and the expensive to look the same. Bigger issue then the 4 and 4s in my opinion. 

 

*iPod form factor change, I believe, was more for function than price. Those of us on the run, did not want, nor need, a large iPod with a touch screen. I like that I can clip my iPod to me and be on the go. The price change is only the byproduct of the form factor removing components such as screen, storage, etc. vs "how do we reduce the price" so lets remove the screen and storage size. 

 

iPad mini was simular. Not a change in size to meet a price point, but a change in size to meet a need. People wanted a pocketable iPad. 

post #31 of 35

This is dumb.  Apple will sell out 5, 4s, and 4 phones shortly after the 5S comes out.

 

There will be only two phones for most of the Oct-Dec Qtr - 5S and 5C. The 5C will have explosive growth in China/India/Europe.  I'm predicting 60M iphones in holiday quarter.

post #32 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Right_said_fred View Post

Your jealous because although you can speculate, you cannot speculate to all 3 significant places.

Im surprised this analist left of the decimal part, perhaps its in that decimal where he can hedge his bets.

 

 

You said it. 1biggrin.gif

post #33 of 35

So the 5C really is the "C is for China Mobile" phone then? TDD-LTE sure suggests that.

 

I guess it could also be for the India market. Culturally, the color set of those cases would be received more favorably I expect. So it does make sense.

 

Also in China, the 'champagne' aka 'gold' casing would easily become the "elite" badge of 5S owners.

 

But if that's all Apple is set to build this quarter, it indicates a long backlog season ahead. I'm ready to drop on an unlocked iPhone 5, but I'm waiting. The day the new ones are announced, I'll have to decide if I'm going to pull the trigger now or hold out for a newer model. 

 

I really like the quality, feature set and overall balance of the current iPhone 5. It'll be nice to finally see what's coming next so I can just get a new phone!

post #34 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by tribalogical View Post

So the 5C really is the "C is for China Mobile" phone then? TDD-LTE sure suggests that.

 

I guess it could also be for the India market. Culturally, the color set of those cases would be received more favorably I expect. So it does make sense.

 

Also in China, the 'champagne' aka 'gold' casing would easily become the "elite" badge of 5S owners.

 

But if that's all Apple is set to build this quarter, it indicates a long backlog season ahead. I'm ready to drop on an unlocked iPhone 5, but I'm waiting. The day the new ones are announced, I'll have to decide if I'm going to pull the trigger now or hold out for a newer model. 

 

I really like the quality, feature set and overall balance of the current iPhone 5. It'll be nice to finally see what's coming next so I can just get a new phone!

The chip that is supposedly being used in the next iteration of iPhones is a Qualcomm world chip, mneaning it can run the TDD-LTE protocol as well as all of the other standards out there.

 

So no, "C" does not mean China.  Apple will sell these all over the place.  "C" also doesn't mean "cheap", as some clueless analysts have suggested.  Would Apple ever, EVER?!?!?, market a product using the word "cheap", even if it is less expensive than another tier of product?

 

Most likely "C" either stands for "color", just like many have suggested, or it is just a designator that Apple doesn't necessarily have to publicize a word for.

post #35 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

The chip that is supposedly being used in the next iteration of iPhones is a Qualcomm world chip, mneaning it can run the TDD-LTE protocol as well as all of the other standards out there.

 

So no, "C" does not mean China.  Apple will sell these all over the place.  "C" also doesn't mean "cheap", as some clueless analysts have suggested.  Would Apple ever, EVER?!?!?, market a product using the word "cheap", even if it is less expensive than another tier of product?

 

Most likely "C" either stands for "color", just like many have suggested, or it is just a designator that Apple doesn't necessarily have to publicize a word for.

 

The "C" will stand for Clown Colored Commoner Communicator while the "S" will stand for Sophisticated Special Security Sensored Servant Summoner. 

 

"S" models will be able to call other "S models and "C" models, however no "C" model will be able to call an "S" model, only other "C" models. 

"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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