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Mac growth running out of steam as 'switcher' motivation diminishes - report - Page 3

post #81 of 112

 

Quote:
PC designs, though, have become "satisfactory for the 'jobs to be done',

 

 

The above quote is the giveaway that this article is a bit of nonsense beat up. Why? because PC designs have always been 'satisfactory', in the sense that they still do the job.

 

 

 

Quote:
Apple?s challenge as we see it is to continue to introduce compelling new versions of iMacs and MacBooks

Is it really. I guess Apple needs to hire this person for his sage advice. The fact is that Apple simply has to keep doing what it is doing. Once a piece of design perfection is reached then it's reached all that needs to be done then is for internal sofware and hardware innovation and excellence. 

post #82 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Negafox View Post

tl;dr

told lie; did read

Really, the cutesy clever gen ADHD stuff is sooo tired.
post #83 of 112

Have these analysts ever figured out there is a recession going on? Have the figured out that people are being more cautious in their buying? I know quite a few folks who have purchased iPads and are now interested in buying Macs when they make their next computer purchase, but they are waiting for improvement in the economy.
 

post #84 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by auxio View Post

 

Fair enough.  The iMac is still a consumer-level computer, so it'll never have the performance wow factor of the Mac Pro for high-end applications/pro-level work.  If you wanted that, you definitely should have waited for the new Mac Pro.

 

Retina quality displays are getting to the consumer-level technology price point (especially at 21"), but still weren't at the time the iMac was announced.  Plus I'm sure they'll want to do it on both the 21" and the 27" iMac at the same time when they do.  A BTO option for retina on an iMac would be a logistical nightmare.

 

I went from a 5 year old Mac Pro (upgraded with an SSD and 16GB of RAM) to a 27" Core i7 iMac w/ Fusion drive and I'm pretty happy with the performance boost.  Sure the Pro would have been nicer, but I'm happy with my decision given how long it's taking for the refresh.  I would have been upset if it were released a month or two after I got my iMac.

I too got an I7 / Fusion.  It really feels laptop parts built more the prior generations did. I mean it's OK. I'm just not as drawn to it that much. I must be spoiled by the quick access of my iOS devices. 

 

I'd like to go for the Mac Pro next. Do we have any idea on pricing yet?

 
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post #85 of 112
Experience matters. Loyalty is much more important than just the sales numbers and not everybody needs a new machine every two years like iPhones. Keep cool, the Macs future is save.
post #86 of 112
no question in my mind, that part of the reason Windows users are not buying new computers, is many of them are on XP, and will switch to Windows 7, but if they go out and buy a new computer, they are stuck with Windows 8! And as we all know, many of the Windows users have no clue whats better, 7 or 8. They shop on price, and we all know whats cheapest.
post #87 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post

I'd like to go for the Mac Pro next. Do we have any idea on pricing yet?

 

Nope.  But I'd expect it to be high (relative to the iMac) given the components.  Likely in the same range as a 12-core Pro right now.

 
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post #88 of 112
Just to add support to the point made early on in this thread about the importance of iLife and iWork in all this.

I am a switcher (well, sort of: I still use a PC for drudge work in the office and have a PC at home as a kind of legacy totem to the long-gone era when I had time to play games). I switched in 2006 and it was bliss. But I feel that I am 'running out of steam', holding off on buying a significant new piece of Apple kit (an iMac) because there is currently nothing I want to do with my current kit that I cannot do.

But the visionary thing about Apple is that it redefines what you can do, simplifies how you do it, and also (most significantly) enables you to do things you either did not think you could do, or never even conceived of doing.

I am a barrister, not an IT bod. But I can sense the irony in the form which many responses on this thread have taken. In reply to the accusation that Apple is running out of steam, pointing out tech advances in the kit is a very un-Apple answer. No one in the 'potential switcher' market really cares all that much about processor speeds etc. What matters are those classic Appleisms: ease and 'reach' of use.

It is software that really makes the difference here. I switched in 2006 some 26 years after first getting my hands on a computer. But within days of using my Mac mini, I had started (for the first time) making stuff a non-creative like me could be proud of: a couple of websites and a 64-page magazine which looked (for the time) like professional product; photo books for my family for £20 or so each which made their recipients think I had completely lost the plot and blown hundreds on self-publishing, etc. It was not my own brilliance that enabled this: it was the thoughtful integration of iWork, iLife and OS X, and their stability, which volunteered for me swathes of time otherwise spent maintaining my PC and also a kind of playful open-ended joy in using the computer.

This analyst's report has (in my non-expert view) correctly identified a symptom but misdiagnosed the cause. It is not that Apple computers are perfect. They are fantastic, for sure, and yet are still incrementally improving. But hardware advances in desktops are of marginal importance now, for most.

It's just that for several years now Apple's focus has (rightly) been elsewhere - on the iPhone and iPad and iOS.

But the time is up. I really do hope that The next iteration of OS X will bring with it a proper leap in the capabilities of iLife, iWork and iCloud. Yes, I have an iPad, an iPhone, a Mac mini (a new one) and a MacBook Air, and yes they are all great pieces of kit, but the whole computing business has become a bit too 'meh' for my liking.

Apple must not Ballmerise itself; it has the funds to keep innovating the software. Why not just throw some of those billions held offshore at a planet's-worth of IT gurus and make it happen?
Edited by Dr_Evil - 8/27/13 at 3:59pm
post #89 of 112

what a total dope. the fact that Apple's share of the PC market overall - desktops and laptops - is going up, even while total PC sales - both Windows and Macs - are going down, means explicitly that people continue to switch from Windows to Mac. if not, Mac sales would be declining at the same rate as PC sales, but they aren't. Macs' decline is much less. 

 

sure, first time PC buyers aren't "switching" literally, and might be buying Macs at a significantly higher rate than Windows PC's. but they can't account for the entire difference. and there definitely is not a boom in Linux PC sales instead.

 

this is basic second grade arithmetic. and this guy is an "analyst"?

post #90 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by auxio View Post

 

Yeah, I don't think that's going to be happening soon if they've stretched themselves over maintaining 3 different versions.  If they can standardize on the web/iCloud version for all platforms, then maybe.  But there's still a number of features missing, and it's very hard to pull off desktop and mobile in the same package (as we see with the Windows 8 debacle).

 

I completely expect Apple to bring (almost full) feature parity to all three versions (OSX, iOS and iCloud) of iWork. I don't think they would have taken this step without a roadmap like that in place. It IS still in beta after all on the iCloud version. Squash bugs, add features, squash bugs, add features, rinse and repeat until it's done. That's where it's at today. I don't see Apple calling this a done deal yet, do you?

 

Is there parity lacking still between the OSX and iOS versions? Something lacking that causes formatting or cross-platform problems? I don't see any currently, but I don't drill down as deep as one can either.

 

Microsoft makes it look hard to pull off. In fact, they seem to be really good at convincing us that the only result possible is a monumental train wreck.  

 

But then along comes Apple, making it look easy. Take the Garageband duality (OSX and iOS versions gaining file/project compatibility), and then they go and extend that crosstalk into Logic Pro! I can sketch a project using Garageband on the go with an iPad, then import that project into GB on my Mac to flesh out more, send that back to the iPad and/or pull either into Logic to polish the tracks further. That workflow alone is pretty amazing.

 

If they can do that, this iWork thing is a walk in the park. They'll get it done, I'm pretty confident of that.

post #91 of 112

I think the new iMac is a step backwards in usability -- No optical drive, and not one USB port or SD card slot in a convenient location -- All are on the back of the new iMac!  All of this because of an obsession with thinness, which doesn't matter when viewed from the front!

post #92 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

I may have to get an MBA just so I can have Lion/Mavericks and fully utilize iCloud. 

Best! 1smile.gif
The only reason I have the iMac instead of a MacBook (outside of my wife's editing)- I do a lot of streaming kids movies from my Mac to the Apple TV, and I don't want to have my laptop on and sleeping plugged in somewhere- I like laptops to be tucked away and invisible. 1smile.gif but those new airs are awesome- love them. You should check out the new 21.5" iMac once its announced (hopefully in the next couple monts) as an alternative.

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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post #93 of 112
Originally Posted by zBernie View Post
I think the new iMac is a step backwards in usability

 

Nonsense.


No optical drive…

 

And no one cares about those anymore.


…and not one USB port or SD card slot in a convenient location…

 

Yeah, no iMac has ever had front-facing ports and Apple hasn't changed that since 1998. I'm pretty sure that's not really a concern.


All of this because of an obsession with thinness…

 

No, not at all, given that these things happened independently of the thinness.


…which doesn't matter when viewed from the front!

 

*insert favorite proverb about the future here*

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #94 of 112
I guess this report is what sent Apple's share price back to the below $500 toilet. It took a worse hit than any of the other computer makers despite having the bottom fall out of the stock last year. There doesn't appear that Apple can do anything to please analysts and Wall Street even though Apple is doing better than most companies in revenue and profits. They expect Apple to have rising sales on all its products or they think the company is slipping. I think these analysts need to take a good look at the economy before blaming Apple for falling sales.

This dude comes to the conclusion that the Mac "wow factor" is fading. Total crap. I think it just a matter than less consumers feel the need to upgrade because the applications most consumers are using don't require a lot of processing power to run well.
post #95 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

I guess this report is what sent Apple's share price back to the below $500 toilet. It took a worse hit than any of the other computer makers despite having the bottom fall out of the stock last year. There doesn't appear that Apple can do anything to please analysts and Wall Street even though Apple is doing better than most companies in revenue and profits. They expect Apple to have rising sales on all its products or they think the company is slipping. I think these analysts need to take a good look at the economy before blaming Apple for falling sales.

This dude comes to the conclusion that the Mac "wow factor" is fading. Total crap. I think it just a matter than less consumers feel the need to upgrade because the applications most consumers are using don't require a lot of processing power to run well.

I agree.

The one decision I think Tim made a mistake on is his decision to pay out dividends.

Dividends don't placate anyone, it commoditises the shares and attracts analysts and their inept scrutiny.

post #96 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by zBernie View Post

I think the new iMac is a step backwards in usability -- No optical drive, and not one USB port or SD card slot in a convenient location -- All are on the back of the new iMac!  All of this because of an obsession with thinness, which doesn't matter when viewed from the front!

The same can be said of the Mac mini, which also puts every connector and SD Card slot in back. But its design is not guided by thinness! OTOH, the MacBook Air design is all about thin, yet it's ports and slots are conveniently placed on the thin edge of the body. So much for your "obsession with thinness" theory...

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #97 of 112
Bought my wife's 20" iMac in late 2008 and my 27" iMac a year later. Neither are anywhere near obsolete for our purposes, which are many and varied. We use them several hours each day. Our iMacs broke the three-year cycle of buying new PC desktops after their steady decline into chaos from Windows bloatware, antivirus patches and blue screens of death. I suspect that many other Mac converts have found the same and are holding on to their hardware longer.

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I admit to being a Fanatical Moderate. I Disdain the Inane. Vyizderzominymororzizazizdenderizorziz?

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post #98 of 112

There's some curious info in here... I presume we're ignoring the Mac Installed Base line on the graph: that's the one that is static at about 16,000,000 computers whilst about 40,000,000 ex-Windows users switch to Mac. Perhaps they're sharing?

 

Then there's the comment that "the company has already introduced what in our view are virtually the 'perfect' machines for the PC market.". Isn't that the same as the famous "Everything that can be invented has been invented." quote? There's plenty of room for improvement in computing devices yet!

 

 

OS X and iOS user

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OS X and iOS user

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post #99 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by auxio View Post

 

Yeah, I don't think that's going to be happening soon if they've stretched themselves over maintaining 3 different versions.  If they can standardize on the web/iCloud version for all platforms, then maybe.  But there's still a number of features missing, and it's very hard to pull off desktop and mobile in the same package (as we see with the Windows 8 debacle).

 

The only problems of windows 8 are related to its user interface. It brought many advancements under the hood compared to windows 7. "Feature-parity" for iWork refers to the underlying functionality, not the UI.

post #100 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by d4NjvRzf View Post

 

The only problems of windows 8 are related to its user interface. It brought many advancements under the hood compared to windows 7.

 

Spoken like a software developer: "It's just some UI quirks, no big deal".

 

Except that, once you really try to get the UI to be intuitive for people who aren't willing to spend ages adapting to the software they use, you realize that it was actually the functionality which was the easy part.  There's a clear answer for functionality: either it meets the functional requirements or it doesn't.  If you work long enough at it, you'll likely get it.

 

However, creating an intuitive UI which works well for the vast majority of people is a lot more "fuzzy".  Some people could work on it endlessly and never get it right.  Or, at least, they'd end up copying it from someone else who did get it right.  It requires a lot of creativity, intuition, and attention to detail.

 

Quote:
"Feature-parity" for iWork refers to the underlying functionality, not the UI.

 

Really?  I thought it meant having the same bugs.  Try creating a build-out in the iCloud version of Keynote (one example of a major missing feature/function).

 
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post #101 of 112

Of course people care about optical drives.   There are still $billions in sales of music, movies, and software on DVD's.   You can't beat RedBox movies for $1.   Not to mention many use optical drives are used for burning home movies, giving relatives photos and videos, etc.

Apple prematurely removed the optical drive in hoping that would drive up online media sales.  MANY people still use an optical drive, just google this phrase to find out how many people are miffed by this:

 

"new imac no optical drive"

 

Concerning no USB ports or SD card slots in a convenient location, Macs never had them on the front, but my 2011 iMac at least has an SD card on the side, which is somewhat convenient.  Now they don't even have that.

 

Sorry, placing all of the ports and slots on the back of the Mac, and eliminating the optical drive reduces manufacturing complexity for Apple, but is inconvenient for the consumer, and a step backwards in usability.

post #102 of 112
Originally Posted by zBernie View Post
just google this phrase to find out how many people are miffed by this:

 

"new imac no optical drive"

 

Except that's in no way a valid metric of anything.


Sorry, placing all of the ports and slots on the back of the Mac, and eliminating the optical drive reduces manufacturing complexity for Apple, but is inconvenient for the consumer, and a step backwards in usability.

 

Wrong, again, as proven by them not changing it.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #103 of 112
Quote:

 "It's just some UI quirks, no big deal".

 

Except that, once you really try to get the UI to be intuitive for people who aren't willing to spend ages adapting to the software they use, you realize that it was actually the functionality which was the easy part.

So right! I've just been helping (over the phone) my sister-in-law who has a new Win8 desktop after her XP machine died:

"So, you can get to the desktop by clicking on one of those tiles...well, it's because you've got two different ways of using the machine...it was really designed for touch screens...no, you don't have a touchscreen on your machine, just an extra bit made for touch screens...IE doesn't have a little X at the top to close it because you started it from the tile, not the desktop...but you can unlearn all this next month because you'll be able to go straight to the desktop at start-up in 8.1...yes, just like in XP" etc.

 

I've thought for a while that if MS can pull off a single OS that's seamless across tablets and PCs then they'll make Apple look silly. And doubted that they can.  Now, having listened to a real user who wants to get stuff done and has no interest in the technicalities, I'm sure they can't. Like auxio said, it's the UI that makes the difference.

OS X and iOS user

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OS X and iOS user

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post #104 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by virtua View Post

"Mac has shrunk to 20% of apple" - you don't get much more misleading than that.

 

What do you mean? It doesn't get any more straightforward than that. There's nothing misleading in that statement whatsoever.

 

Whether or not anyone has switched to the iPad is irrelevant to the percentage of Apple's business the Mac represents. My nephew uses an iPhone instead of a laptop. So what? What he *IS* using has zero affect on the fact that he's NOT using a Mac.

 

The only way the statement is misleading is if the Mac's share of Apple's pie is actually significantly more or less than 20%.

post #105 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post

In it's current state- I can;t recommend a Mac. Quicktime sucks

 

I don't understand the direction Apple is taking with QuickTime either. Please suggest an alternative container on another platform that will do what QT does.

 

Just lemme know if you think of something. I'm gonna go continue working in the meantime.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post

And the new iMacs don't make sense without a retina display.

 

What?! Who the pluck needs retina resolution on a 27" display? That's the most ridiculous complaint about the iMac yet.

post #106 of 112
Originally Posted by v5v View Post

What?! Who the pluck needs retina resolution on a 27" display?

 

Anyone who has used one anywhere else and won't accept crap resolution anymore? I'd love a 27" retina.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #107 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Anyone who has used one anywhere else and won't accept crap resolution anymore? I'd love a 27" retina.

 

I don't know if I'd call present resolutions "crap;" I can't make out individual pixels on my 17" 1920 x 1200. A 27" display is obviously much larger but it's also viewed from much further away.

 

After comparing the Retina vs. non-Retina iPad and the Retina vs. non-Retina MacBook Pro, I honestly think Retina is a solution in search of a problem. It *is* better, but in my opinion not *enough* better to justify the increased cost, power requirement and GPU overhead. YMMV.

post #108 of 112

*IF* it's true that the number of switchers is diminishing, I can think of a couple reasons, one as old as the hills, the other more recent.

 

The traditional reason is "It costs HOW much?!" Persuading Kia and Hyundai owners, or even Chrysler, Toyota and Honda owners to switch to BMW (or Lexus or Mercedes or whatever) is a tough sell. Of course it's better, but it's also WAY more expensive. Just as many people choose not to buy the BMW because they view it as either overkill for their modest needs or more than they can afford, the switch from Toshiba or Sony to Apple can be a shock to the wallet.

 

The other is the stripping down of screen-facing services. My wife and I were swayed to Mac around five years ago as a result of trying to find a cohesive package that would allow my wife to gather her photos and video and create online photo and video albums, a web site and DVDs. iLife with MobileMe was the obvious winner.

 

I'll leave the subject of whether or not last year was the time to kill DVDs for another discussion, but raise the question of whether current cloud and software offerings have the same kind of "curb appeal" the old iLife had? iCloud provides sync and storage, both of which I greatly appreciate, but they're things you have to experience to appreciate. I now know about and appreciate the Apple "eco-system" but I'm not sure the present software/cloud system would attract me to the platform if I wasn't already invested in them.

post #109 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by v5v View Post

What do you mean? It doesn't get any more straightforward than that. There's nothing misleading in that statement whatsoever.

Whether or not anyone has switched to the iPad is irrelevant to the percentage of Apple's business the Mac represents. My nephew uses an iPhone instead of a laptop. So what? What he *IS* using has zero affect on the fact that he's NOT using a Mac.

The only way the statement is misleading is if the Mac's share of Apple's pie is actually significantly more or less than 20%.

The inference is clear - it's being used to intimate mac sales are slumping and has nothing to do with mac sales performance.
post #110 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Except that's in no way a valid metric of anything.

 

Wrong, again, as proven by them not changing it.

 

Mac sales are down 6% from 2012.  How's that for a metric?   Tablet sales were brisk in 2012, so don't believe that BS that Mac sales slumped because of tablets.  

 

And let me get this straight -- Since Apple puts all of the ports and slots on the back, that must be best practices?

post #111 of 112
Originally Posted by zBernie View Post

Mac sales are down 6% from 2012.  How's that for a metric?

 

Prove it has anything whatsoever to do with what you claimed, or don't waste our time claiming utter crap.


Since Apple puts all of the ports and slots on the back, that must be best practices?

 

Nope; didn't say that. Please read what I write before responding.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

Reply
post #112 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by zBernie View Post

Of course people care about optical drives.   There are still $billions in sales of music, movies, and software on DVD's.   You can't beat RedBox movies for $1.   Not to mention many use optical drives are used for burning home movies, giving relatives photos and videos, etc.

Apple prematurely removed the optical drive in hoping that would drive up online media sales.  MANY people still use an optical drive, just google this phrase to find out how many people are miffed by this:

 

"new imac no optical drive"

 

1999 left the building and it's not coming back.

 

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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