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Apple projected to ship nearly 65M 'iWatch' units priced at $199 in first year - Page 2

post #41 of 104

I love my Mac Pro, my iPad 2, my Mini, and last but not least, my iPhone 4S. But I will NEVER buy a damn Apple watch. My name isn't Dick Tracy. 

I hope it fails miserably. 

post #42 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Connie View Post

I do not think Apple will ever make a watch. They should focus their resources and energy and try and make a 5 inch iPhone instead.

I prefer an Apple eInk eReader that I can read on the beach. Why sell books if it's so limited?

 
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post #43 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

Apple will try to convince its existing customer base - very large, by the way - that they can't live without this product.  They have a pretty strong history of success with such things.

 

Thompson

 

Actually Apple success came from selling products that people needed: communication, computing, playing music, etc, things that improved people’s life on their own not as accessories! What Apple did was drastically improve usability and experience to the point where more people could take advantage of new technology to do things that they already did in some form.

A smartwatch looks to be an accessory that might improve interactions with other devices but is limited in scope. It is not actually necessary for those interactions. It might have some biosensors that could be interesting for some people, but for most people will seem superfluous. It will be mostly about experience not new functionality

post #44 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post


This is another of those rumors that just get floated around for years. This one celebrates its 3rd birthday today:

http://www.razorianfly.com/2010/08/28/apple-to-debut-iwatch-next-week-rumor/

I found some stats previously during the course of the numerous threads about it showing potential numbers:

http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/157069/survey-finds-19-of-consumers-interested-in-buying-apple-iwatch#post_2313658

One of the references there showed watch export numbers for 2011:

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21571943-industry-ripe-shake-up-time-money

As you'd expect, Switzerland maintains the highest average unit price and volume at 30 million units. France is 2nd at 7 million units with ASP of ~$175.

Apple selling 65m at $199 in a year would be about half the entire premium watch industry of every country combined. It's just not realistic IMO. There's also the issue that Tim noted during an interview and someone else pointed out in the thread, which is that kids don't wear watches. Smartphones have replaced watches for people for the function of telling the time. As a piece of jewellery, a watch still has a place but this isn't the kind of thing Apple makes.

Some of their competitors are making moves into this space but they don't look all that compelling:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/samsung--smart-watch--kicks-off-this-year-s-big-tech-trend-135519070.html#Tey2N8P



That just basically controls the phone via the watch. Looks like Samsung might be paying off the media again too because the above article says Samsung is kicking off the trend but Sony has had their watch available to buy for a while:

http://www.sonymobile.com/gb/products/accessories/smartwatch/

 

 

But you neglect to mention Tim Cook's point, which is just because people don't wear watches anymore, doesn't mean Apple can't convince people that they NEED a wrist-worn iDevice.

 

The fact that people that used to wear watches don't anymore, and kids NEVER have, might work in Apple's favor, as they aren't going to have to convince anyone to throw away what they already wear and buy this instead.

 

Just like the iPad, it will invent its OWN category, and slide right in to people's lives.

 

However, 65 million units in the first year is an estimate approximately 45 million too high.

post #45 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by chazwatson View Post

Feels like stock pumping by dumping rumors with outrageously good imaginary numbers on top of the Sept 10th ones. AAPL analyst motto is, "Buy on rumor, sell on news!" so why not pack more rumors in?

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by dubston View Post


So that when Apple doesn't sell that many, they can say they somehow failed. I do agree with $199 being a sweet spot price. I seem to remember Phil Schiller saying that when the iPod touch 8GB was $199.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Dodel View Post

Are there 65 million people left in the world who would wear a new watch? Neither of my kids have ever worn any of the watches I have bought them, and none of their friends do either. Unless this replaces their phones I don't see how this rumour is possible.

 

Exactly, It is just another analysis trying to manipulated the market again. I am not sure why the SEC is not looking into these people, since we see it time and again they come out with this bad information and trying and profit from it. The SEC should just go after a couple of these guys and make the back up their claims with facts. Since they are not reporters they can not high behind the first amendment or confidentiality of their informants 

post #46 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by massconn72 View Post

I love my Mac Pro, my iPad 2, my Mini, and last but not least, my iPhone 4S. But I will NEVER buy a damn Apple watch. My name isn't Dick Tracy. 

I hope it fails miserably. 

 

Based on this post you could for sure teach them a thing or two about failing.

post #47 of 104

I haven't worn watches in years, but did pick up a Pebble to play with, and you know what?  pretty cool device.  Then I tried a FuelBand and actually preferred it as the fitness info is kind of addictive and helpful as well, and I did notice Tim wearing one when he made his comments about watches.  Mix the two, add Apple's take on it, and I'm sure they will sell a bunch.  My highschool/college daughters BOTH wear watches, I showed a young female co-worker the Pebble, she went all over town to get one from Best Buy, and ended up paying top dollar on eBay to get one.  I never expected that type of response.

 

I find it very odd, this mentality of "I won't ever wear a watch, so no one should, I hope they fail miserably", sheese ....  people.

 

The second I saw the iPad I knew the world would change, a wrist worn smart accessory??   We'll just see I guess, I have a good gut feeling that this will be great.

post #48 of 104

As this guy pointed out, "women with short dresses will have to be careful around little boys with a this watch and a phone" for this reason alone this will kill this idea. It is another example of technology being in conflict with social norms 

 

post #49 of 104
In an industry changing move, Apple will begin selling non-existent products in time for Christmas. Long lines are expected on the day the product, dubbed the iNothing, does not begin selling.

Apple spokespersons were unavailable for comment, but industry insiders, have indicated that Apple will use the money saved from not manufacturing the iNothing, to create even more non-existent products.

Wall Street is abuzz with this new strategy which is expected to be copied by other manufacturers as they struggle to keep up with no one.
post #50 of 104
Apple is "projected to..."

followed by whatever some analyst wants to make up.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #51 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by massconn72 View Post

I love my Mac Pro, my iPad 2, my Mini, and last but not least, my iPhone 4S. But I will NEVER buy a damn Apple watch. My name isn't Dick Tracy. 

I hope it fails miserably. 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

As this guy pointed out, "women with short dresses will have to be careful around little boys with a this watch and a phone" for this reason alone this will kill this idea. It is another example of technology being in conflict with social norms 

 

Apple won't have a camera on their iWatch- facetiming on your watch?  Awful.  It's not going to be a "Dick Tracy" device.  That's nerdy- very nerdy.  The iWatch will be cool- and it'll sell itself as such.  Fitness is sexy- fitness is cool- the iWatch will focus on those- and, in turn, be cool.  Tech-wise it'll be astonishing w/ its biometric capability, and the notifications will be on par with all the android copy-cats that will come out.  Some might even top the iWatch.  But the iWatch will still be "cool"- and the Android watches will be nerdy- because Apple's main focus through marketing and functionality- will be on Fitness.  So while the new Android watches that come out after the iWatch will be able to boast "Hey- look- we have a camera"- Apple won't because they know it's nerdy.  $399, $499- name your price. In fact- the more expensive, the more "elite" and cool.  This will be a winner if they do it the right way.  Can't wait!

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
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post #52 of 104
These watch theories have become a circle jerk for analysts.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #53 of 104
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post

You'd be fooling yourself to believe an Apple wearable device (like that referred to above as iWatch) won't be released next year.

 

Hilarious. And when you have any proof, feel free to post it, though you would have done that initially if you did.

 

Originally Posted by Connie View Post
I do not think Apple will ever make a watch. They should focus their resources and energy and try and make a 5 inch iPhone instead.

 

Ah, two dumb ideas.

 

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post
These watch theories have become a circle jerk for analysts.

 

There's a 'wrist' joke in there somewhere… 

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #54 of 104
(Tallest Skil) LOL!

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #55 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post


Apple won't have a camera on their iWatch- facetiming on your watch?  Awful.  It's not going to be a "Dick Tracy" device.  That's nerdy- very nerdy.  The iWatch will be cool- and it'll sell itself as such.  Fitness is sexy- fitness is cool- the iWatch will focus on those- and, in turn, be cool.  Tech-wise it'll be astonishing w/ its biometric capability, and the notifications will be on par with all the android copy-cats that will come out.  Some might even top the iWatch.  But the iWatch will still be "cool"- and the Android watches will be nerdy- because Apple's main focus through marketing and functionality- will be on Fitness.  So while the new Android watches that come out after the iWatch will be able to boast "Hey- look- we have a camera"- Apple won't because they know it's nerdy.  $399, $499- name your price. In fact- the more expensive, the more "elite" and cool.  This will be a winner if they do it the right way.  Can't wait!

And cool too. You forgot to mention they'd be cool. 1smoking.gif
melior diabolus quem scies
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melior diabolus quem scies
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post #56 of 104

Does anyone else look at that watch and think "uncomfortable?"

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post #57 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

you neglect to mention Tim Cook's point, which is just because people don't wear watches anymore, doesn't mean Apple can't convince people that they NEED a wrist-worn iDevice.

The fact that people that used to wear watches don't anymore, and kids NEVER have, might work in Apple's favor, as they aren't going to have to convince anyone to throw away what they already wear and buy this instead.

Just like the iPad, it will invent its OWN category, and slide right in to people's lives.

You have to think of how it does that. It has no keyboard so you can't text or dial phones. It's on the wrist so it can't have a headphone jack. The battery is tiny as are the components so they can't run full apps or even have wifi and how do they let you charge it? There's no place for a lightning port. There are limited-use cases such as fitness accessories, maybe even some navigation but for the most part, this sort of thing will appeal to the same people who had calculator watches back in the 80s.



Maybe having Siri connected to the phone in your pocket would appeal to some people but headphones can do that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

However, 65 million units in the first year is an estimate approximately 45 million too high.

So they make 20m x $199 x 0.25 net margin = $995m per year = ~$250m per quarter. Where does the market peak? The stats show that the 2011 worldwide premium watch market is 65m units per year. Even if they top 20 million to almost match the whole of Switzerland despite selling digital watches, it doesn't get much better than that.
post #58 of 104
Cool things Apple could do with an iWatch:
When you hold it up to look at it, the screen turns.
It could generate energy for itself as you move your arm while walking.
It would know when you go for a walk or jog and activate tracking and other feature automatically.
When you are at rest near an AppleTV, it could show you a remote control app.
The pod cast app would gather shows you are interested in when connected to WiFi.
Apple could automatically generate news and entertainment "channels" in the same way FlipBoard generates magazines.
Detailed photo maps would be cached on the iWatch for offline use while walking or jogging based on locations you visit.
The fingerprint detector allows an easy and secure way to make purchases.
Share contact information with the person in front of you with a swipe.
This plus all the apps and iPhone/iPad connectivity features you would expect from a smart watch.
post #59 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

(Tallest Skil) LOL!

TS is much better as a contributor instead of a moderator. He can be totally abrasive and not have to uphold a standard. I prefer this TS substantially more. Enjoyable even.

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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
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post #60 of 104
Originally Posted by boriscleto View Post

How can you project shipments of a product that will never exist?

 

How can you maintain web traffic in an Apple news lull?

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post #61 of 104
Problem with iWatch is people don't want to have to charge their watch every day. Most of us who wear watches put them on and forget about them (aside from looking at time etc). I cannot imagine having to charge my watch daily. Then will be the days someone forgets to charge their watch.
post #62 of 104
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

These watch theories have become a circle jerk for analysts.

 

The iWatch is the new "Apple television set."

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post #63 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbchp View Post

You just went full retard. Never go full retard.

just saying.

That was my favorite line in the whole movie! Classic
post #64 of 104

What is so dumb about the idea of Apple eventually making a 5 inch iPhone?

post #65 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Dodel View Post

Are there 65 million people left in the world who would wear a new watch? Neither of my kids have ever worn any of the watches I have bought them, and none of their friends do either. Unless this replaces their phones I don't see how this rumour is possible.

 

With over $30 billion in sales annually, I'd say yes. More to the point, there are probably well over 1 billion people who would love a smart watch.

post #66 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDBA View Post

People don't wear watches like they used to. However, in Western culture at least, there is a growing number of people that run/bike/swim and there's always the ever popular golf.

From what I've seen and experienced for myself, the offerings from Polar/Timex/Suunto are either extremely limited, complicated, bulky or ugly or any combination of the previous four. Where Apple can step in, is by offering a very subtle and well designed device, that paired along with an iPhone would give the active user a killer must have combination.

I pretty much bet that such a device can find some 65 million clients worldwide.

For example, Strava is a wondeful app to have on your iPhone today. Problem is, you have to take out your iPhone in the middle of a run in order to see your progress. iWatch definitely solves that problem.

They would have to strike the perfect balance between jewelry and durability. People would have far less tolerance if their jewelry was easily scratched versus something that is hidden in a case like the iPhone. Not saying Apple cannot do it, just that it wouldn't be easy. A rubberized coating would be out of place as jewelry while a metallic face and band would not make the most sense as a fitness tool. Interesting times.
post #67 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Connie View Post

I do not think Apple will ever make a watch. They should focus their resources and energy and try and make a 5 inch iPhone instead.

It should also run Android, because the iPhone is not Android enough.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #68 of 104

It's sort of hilarious to watch people declare that Apple shouldn't wear a watch because no one wears a watch.

 

It's sort of like saying they shouldn't sell a smartphone because everyone uses a feature phone.

 

How did that turn out for them?

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #69 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


It should also run Android, because the iPhone is not Android enough.

If Apple make a 5 inch iPhone, it will kick the ass of any 5 inch Android phone anytime, anywhere.  

post #70 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldernorm View Post

Apple's new teleporter will be wrist mounted and link with satellites over head. You will speak your destination and be transported there. The new data centers were never for iTunes, they were to store the kiloquads of data that are required to disassemble your atoms and re assemble them at the destination.

In related news, Apple buys several third world nations and flys its "flying saucer" headquarters there, totally bypassing us tax and DOJ efforts. Wall Street responds by tripling the stock value to 3000 per share, then in a big mood change, kills the stock totally.

Apple responds by buying Wall Street and replacing everyone with one new Mac Pro.

Just saying.

That was very amusing! 

post #71 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ppietra View Post

 

Actually Apple success came from selling products that people needed: communication, computing, playing music, etc, things that improved people’s life on their own not as accessories! What Apple did was drastically improve usability and experience to the point where more people could take advantage of new technology to do things that they already did in some form.

A smartwatch looks to be an accessory that might improve interactions with other devices but is limited in scope. It is not actually necessary for those interactions. It might have some biosensors that could be interesting for some people, but for most people will seem superfluous. It will be mostly about experience not new functionality

Well I don't think Apple would be driving so hard (if rumors about hirings and timelines going out a year or more) just to build an accessory with limited new functionality and/or scope.  If the "accessory" angle was all there was to it, I think they could have shipped the iWatch already.  They are apparently spending a very long time and effort on development.  I think that they will surprise us with something more grand.  That certainly is the impression that Tim Cook gave with his answer, and I believe Apple will be able to execute.

 

Regardless of the "accessory" point, the meaning of my original post was this:  I was thinking of two products in particular that people didn't really see the need for until Apple put their version of the product out there:  iPod and iPad.  There were already MP3 players, but they generally sucked so badly that they only reinforced the notion of irrelevance.  Same thing can be said of all tablet computers prior to iPad.  But then Apple makes a product that is stellar and highly desirable, and it not only outsold the previous (lame) attempts by competitors, but it also created a sense of "need" where none was perceived before.  So I maintain that their track record in this "need creation" is great, and your counterpoint that an "accessory" probably couldn't do this is a good one except for one fatal flaw:  there is no evidence that this will only BE an accessory, and I think that we have enough hints to suggest that it will not be.

 

Thompson

post #72 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Connie View Post

If Apple make a 5 inch iPhone, it will kick the ass of any 5 inch Android phone anytime, anywhere.  

Apple doesn't make a 5 inch iPhone, and it still kicks the ass of any 5 inch Android phone anytime, anywhere.

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post #73 of 104
Am I the only one who would appreciate it if you stopped using that awful picture by Yrving Torrealba whenever you write about the rumoured watch? Watches, like glasses, are a personally fashionable extentions of the taste of the one wearing it, like with a bracelet, or a necklace, nail polish etc. I honestly think Apple will have to loosen up on the design here. There'll probably be high quality details like leather under it, textile and a somewhat toned down appearance. Not a massive plastic handcuff.
Sorry for whining.. just ignore me...
post #74 of 104
Functionality could compel purchases, time display wristwatches are rejected due to their redundancy with other devices such as cellphones not because younger people view their wrists as somehow sacrosanct. To judge from the bangles, rubber bands etc. I see daily....

Admittedly I fail, for the moment, to see that compelling functionality... but then that's what Apple is for eh?
post #75 of 104

Facetime on a "watch" or small, thin and simple device that can also be to stuck on the dashboard, wheel, mirror or whatever via bluetooth will be a game changer. That makes "iWatch" a clever name. Apple needs to secure the rights to use "Dick Tracy" in their ads. 

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post #76 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Connie View Post

What is so dumb about the idea of Apple eventually making a 5 inch iPhone?

The LTE iPad mini does that segment better. Phablets are generally understood to be used for mobile computing, which the mini with it's larger screen does with a superior experience. Thought being if you're going to go big anyway, go big.

post #77 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by city View Post

Facetime on a "watch" or small, thin and simple device that can also be to stuck on the dashboard, wheel, mirror or whatever via bluetooth will be a game changer. That makes "iWatch" a clever name. Apple needs to secure the rights to use "Dick Tracy" in their ads. 

I don't know, his color palette would clash with iOS 7....

post #78 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by palegolas View Post

Am I the only one who would appreciate it if you stopped using that awful picture by Yrving Torrealba whenever you write about the rumoured watch? Watches, like glasses, are a personally fashionable extentions of the taste of the one wearing it, like with a bracelet, or a necklace, nail polish etc. I honestly think Apple will have to loosen up on the design here. There'll probably be high quality details like leather under it, textile and a somewhat toned down appearance. Not a massive plastic handcuff.
Sorry for whining.. just ignore me...

That's it! iWatch will be a prisoner monitoring system. The updated ankle bracelet... Maybe it should have been theyWatch? iCuffs is probably taken by those stupid power icon cuff links.
post #79 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

It's sort of hilarious to watch people declare that Apple shouldn't wear a watch because no one wears a watch.

It's sort of like saying they shouldn't sell a smartphone because everyone uses a feature phone.

How did that turn out for them?

1 billion people were already buying phones and the functionality of the iPhone was significantly better because it finally brought usable browsing to mobile and powerful apps. A smart watch is competing more with the smartphone than the dumbwatch while being less powerful.

There's a video of the Android GEAK watch here:



You can see various scenarios like checking email. The guy taps through a presentation on the watch and the graphics overlay says "sending email". It has voice to text so you'd have to use that for the whole thing as there's no keyboard. It has wifi to send email directly. Then he checks the weather info (makes sure to do it while near his wifi because it sure can't have cellular and wifi). It has GPS which is nice but it would need maps stored on the device for navigation. Then he uses the watch to tell the smartphone tied to his arm to take pervy pictures of the female runner. He gets his diet info and sits down to read news on the 1.5" 240x240 display. He goes to the business meeting where they all have Mac laptops and sends data through a nearby projector. Lastly he starts some sort of messaging with the people he's sitting next to (maybe the digital equivalent of writing numbers on napkins?).

http://www.engadget.com/2013/06/17/geak-watch-android-china/

Voice to text, wifi, bluetooth, NFC, GPS, FM radio, headphone jack, biometric sensors, 1GHz CPU, 512MB RAM, 4GB storage, 500mAh battery, 1.55" 240x240 display, $330.

It's basically a smartphone with a strap that can't make calls, has no cellular connectivity for data outside of wifi, relies on voice input for text (which requires network access), has too small a screen size and resolution for reading text. The battery is about 1/3 the size of a smartphone, maybe less so it'll have to find a way to draw around 0.5W maximum to make it through the day.

Some of the use cases are nice and it would be good for sports, especially navigation as you could for example see a map on your wrist while cycling or running. I think the uses cases where it has a lot of appeal have a very limited audience. By contrast, smartphone features are compelling for almost everyone with a dumbphone.

It may be worth making one - the Apple TV only sells 2 million units per quarter at $99 so 2 million watches per quarter at $199 would be better financially than the Apple TV. But would people buy a $199 watch that had no network connectivity when you were out and about unless you also had your smartphone in which case surely you'd use the smartphone most of the time. I don't think people are going to start dictating their tweets while walking down the street (I hope not anyway).

Having variable straps would allow people to personalise the devices and I'd say it's important to let people do that.
post #80 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by massconn72 View Post

I love my Mac Pro, my iPad 2, my Mini, and last but not least, my iPhone 4S. But I will NEVER buy a damn Apple watch. My name isn't Dick Tracy. 

I hope it fails miserably. 

The fact that you don't want an Apple watch is understandable.  It's your money and your wrist.  But I don't understand why that translates into a desire for the product to fail miserably.  Does the mere existence of products you never want to own drive you into fits of rage or depression?

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