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Shares of Apple slide, analysts cut targets in disappointment over iPhone 5c pricing - Page 2

post #41 of 297
No surprise there. Apple's doing great--but we can't expect "analysts" to understand why! The rumors of Apple's low-end phone being rock-bottom junk were never that plausible. Apple's low-end is anyone else's midrange. Same with computers. Nothing new there. Is the market they leave on the table that valuable? Can they in fact snap up SOME of that low-end market by upselling them to a midrange smartphone? Is this their last chance to try a rock-bottom device if it truly is warranted? None of these answers alarm me.

Guess Apple should build a netbook too...
post #42 of 297

These analysts are not in it for the long-term. They want great numbers one quarter at a time. Cheaper android phones are just that, cheaper! You get what you pay for. Selling the phone is just a starting point, Apple want their users to buy digital content...no point in attracting cheap users that don't buy digital content.

The end. 

post #43 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by gowhitestripes View Post

They set themselves up perfectly for next year.



Next year the iPhone 5C becomes $449.

The iPhone 5S becomes $549 and $649

and the iPhone 6 with a 4.5 inch screen becomes $649 upward.



Really a beautiful move.



- 5C = reworked from the iPhone 5 because of the iPhone 5's scratch problems and I think they wanted to change internals (China Mobile band?)



- 5S = Needed to keep the same form factor because of accessories and equipment that make these phones. Lots of innovation otherwise. Fingerprint sensor will be awesome.



- China Mobile = will come; they will ease into it



Only one thing lacking in iPhone innovation, the screen-size. That's it. Otherwise they did a fantastic job. None of this is easy.

 





With all due reapect.
It is just stupid to see screen size as innovation.
Let just STOP with it already.
post #44 of 297
Apple shares always seem to drop after an introduction of new products, but its really severe this time, understandable I suppose, even I was surprised at the the high off-contract price of the 5C, was expecting a maximum of $449 not $549. Still I suppose Apple know what they're doing.
Edited by 1983 - 9/11/13 at 9:53am
post #45 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post
 

 

I am sooooo tired of hauling this out but here it is:

 

Apple II 1977

Mac 1984

PowerBook 1991

Newton 1993

iPod 2001

iPhone 2007

iPad 2010

 

Average interval between major new product introductions:  5.5 years.  My advice is, if you only started paying attention when iPhone first came out, then be patient.  A 3 year gap is at the low end of the range.  Even if we limit the numbers to the Steve Jobs era.

 

Not to mention: the stock under Cook has been WAY higher than under Jobs. Not lower, higher.

post #46 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by nagromme View Post
 

 

Not to mention: the stock under Cook has been WAY higher than under Jobs. Not lower, higher.

 

"has been" being the operative words.

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post #47 of 297

I'm not one to agree with analysts, as most of them are clueless douchebags, IMO, but I too believe that Apple made a strategic error.

 

I've always been against Apple releasing cheaper products, but after many months of rumors of the plastic iPhone were all but confirmed, I had accepted that it was coming and believed that Apple was going to make a play for greater marketshare.

 

But with the pricing of the 5c, that is not going to happen, so I'm not even sure why the 5c exists. Sure, it looks decent, I don't have any problems with the design or the features, but Apple could have just released the 5s and dropped the 5c in my opinion. I'd love to be proved wrong, and I hope that Apple sells a shitload of both models, but their current strategy just strikes me as strange.

post #48 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by Techboy View Post

These analysts are not in it for the long-term. They want great numbers one quarter at a time. Cheaper android phones are just that, cheaper! You get what you pay for. Selling the phone is just a starting point, Apple want their users to buy digital content...no point in attracting cheap users that don't buy digital content.



The end. 



The analysts have a great scam going. They dream up some ridiculous rumor (did anyone possibly believe that Apple would introduce a $200 phone like some analysts predicted?) and then generate all sorts of hype with their own company getting lots of publicity.

Then, when Apple fails to deliver what the analyst promised, APPLE is the one who suffers, not the analyst.

Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

"has been" being the operative words.

no, 'is'. Even at today's low price, the stock is higher than it was at any time during Jobs' leadership.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #49 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1983 View Post

Apple shares always seem to drop after an introduction of new products, but its really severe this time, understandable I suppose, even I was surprised at the the high off-contract price of the 5C, was expecting a maximum of $449 not $549. Still I suppose Apple know what they're doing.

Yeah I was thinking the same.

The big "surprise" from the event for everyone wasnt any particular product but instead the price of the 5C.

But honestly investors would still have been disappointed in the price even if it was $450. Anything over $300 would have been deemed too expensive for emerging markets.

But still $550? Really Apple? No matter. They'll make massive profits.
post #50 of 297

My disappointment with the iPhone 5C is that the case is not user-replaceable. I grow tired of having to feel I need to protect my phone with an expensive third-party outer case to keep it pristine. It would be nice if the case was easily user-replaceable, or even can buy a third-party designer case in a store to swap on. Outer cases just add bulk.


Edited by Negafox - 9/11/13 at 10:07am
post #51 of 297
If Apple was controlled by analysts it would have been sold off in pieces for its patents way back in the 1980s. Thank all that's holy those idiots don't run Apple's board!

Apple only puts out a handful of products a year and, barring a few failures, those products are wildly successful. Apple knows what people want and how to make those on the fence want what they were unsure of.

I can't believe I'm saying this but even I want want of those plastic iPhones, despite knowing full well it's just an iPhone 5 in a plastic shell. And I'm typing this comment from my iPhone 5! That either means I'm bat shit insane or Apple got it right. "Here's to the crazy ones!" Of course, I'll be getting the 5S, not the 5C, cause first and foremost I'm a technology nut.

Funny thing about iPhone tech: the pundits always claim the iPhone is a generation behind on hardware, yet that couldn't be farther from the truth. The DPI war was ignited by Apple. Before the Retina Display, almost all Android devices sported 480x800 displays. Apple was the first to market with an ARM A15 based SoC (A6) and now again they are first to market with ARM's new v8 architecture. Pundits will point out that biometrics aren't new to mobile devices, but I can all but guarantee you their ubiquity will come only now and only as a direct response to the 5S.
post #52 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

"has been" being the operative words.
The stock is still currently higher than it ever was under Jobs.
post #53 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by Negafox View Post

My disappointment with the iPhone 5C is that the case is not user-replaceable. I grow tired of having to feel I need to protect my phone with an expensive third-party outer case to keep it pristine. It would be nice if the case was easily user-replaceable, or even can buy a third-party designer case in a store to swap on. Outer cases just add bulk.

And what phone ever had an easily replaceable case? Besides, there are third parties who will pop up and fill that "void".
post #54 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


The stock is still currently higher than it ever was under Jobs.

 

"still' being the operative word.

 

... but not "way" higher.

 

[I love how people pull out this old chestnut as if it means something. Like AAPL would never have reached $700 under Steve. All I see is a stock that is running out of steam... and, in my opinion, Steve's steam. If the analysts are right this time then expect a drubbing on AAPL in the new year. ]

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post #55 of 297
5C is a respectable IPhone however wouldn't most people that are buying this iPhone rather spend another $100 and get the 5S??
Pricing is too high for the China market where Apple wants to be big in
post #56 of 297

I wonder how much time the competition while take to follow Apple 64bit steps.   While I do think an 64 bits mobile processor is a kind of waste for a phone right now, eventually every mobile device will go with a 64 bit processor. Apple as play this card very well and the transition will be transparent for the users and gives pressure to the competition with no OS ready for 64bits yet. 

post #57 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1983 View Post

Apple shares always seem to drop after an introduction of new products, but its really severe this time, understandable I suppose, even I was surprised at the the high off-contract price of the 5C, was expecting a maximum of $449 not $549. Still I suppose Apple know what they're doing.
The chart I posted on the previous page shows that the stock drop after iPhone 4 was announced was just as bad percentage wise.
post #58 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by politicalslug View Post

I can't believe I'm saying this but even I want want of those plastic iPhones, despite knowing full well it's just an iPhone 5 in a plastic shell. And I'm typing this comment from my iPhone 5! That either means I'm bat shit insane or Apple got it right. "Here's to the crazy ones!" Of course, I'll be getting the 5S, not the 5C, cause first and foremost I'm a technology nut.

 

So you want the 5c, but admit you're getting the 5s? :lol:

 

That doesn't prove that Apple got it right. I think that the stock would be higher today if there was no 5c announced at all.

post #59 of 297
"Munster was expecting Apple to sell 50 million $300 iPhones in 2014, growing to 100 million in 2015, with 15 percent gross margin." -- To me, this means: 50 million units times $45 of profit per phone (15% of $300) = $2.5 Billion in profits in 2014. Instead, assuming the same build costs Munster used ~$255/phone and Apple sells half as many as Munster predicted but with $294 per phone profit.....= $7.35 Billion in profit. So, how does that hurt Apple and investors?
post #60 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by rain View Post

This makes no sense whatsoever.

Tallest Skill and the other frothing cultists have declared yesterday the single most important moment in all humanity - the greatest innovation of all collective human experience and knowledge was rolled out in a plastic phone...

how... how can this be?


This is why...
http://www.theonion.com/articles/apple-unveils-panicked-ideafree-man-at-launch-even,33814/

When did Tea Party style player-hating ever slither it's way into discussions about Apple? Give it a rest! If anyone is criticle of Apple it is us! You just hate for whatever reason.
post #61 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


And what phone ever had an easily replaceable case? Besides, there are third parties who will pop up and fill that "void".

Some of the Lumia phones and the Moto X, I believe.

post #62 of 297

It's just not in Apple's DNA to build cheap crap. I have no idea what investors were expecting.

 

An iPhone like the 'iPod nano' or 'shuffle' just would not be possible without huge sacrifices in performance or quality and would make life difficult for devs having vastly different specs.

 

I think Apple nailed it.

Do not overrate what you have received, nor envy others.
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Do not overrate what you have received, nor envy others.
15" Matte MacBook Pro: 2.66Ghz i7, 8GB RAM, GT330m 512MB, 512GB SSD

iPhone 5 Black 32GB

iPad 3rd Generation, 32GB

Mac Mini Core2Duo 2.26ghz,...

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post #63 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


The chart I posted on the previous page shows that the stock drop after iPhone 4 was announced was just as bad percentage wise.

 

That is true. With a few exceptions, AAPL historically drops after major product releases. That's why I even got bold and shorted AAPL yesterday for a quick trade.

 

However, and I don't recall 100%, but if I'm not mistaken, I don't believe that those previous drops were accompanied by multiple downgrades. And even on those prior drops, AAPL usually quickly recovers again. We shall see what happens this time. We will have our answer after Apple reveals how many phones were sold over the opening weekend.

post #64 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

"still' being the operative word.

... but not "way" higher.
So? Who cares what the stock price is at a point in time? The stock fluctuated a lot under Jobs. The same is happening under Cook and will probably always be the case with Apple.
post #65 of 297

Apple just cant win.  If they had a lower price for the 5c the same people would downgrade the stock because of fear over margins.....

 

I bought in at $400 and I think I am going to buy more now....

post #66 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


So? Who cares what the stock price is at a point in time? The stock fluctuated a lot under Jobs. The same is happening under Cook and will probably always be the case with Apple.

 

You obviously care. You started this.

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post #67 of 297
I must admit, I do not see the market Apple is intending to target with the 5C. In the contract free world, it's too expensive for most (especially outside the US). At most it seems like the close price point will just canibalize sales from the 5s.

Seems to me the only thing the 5C brings to the table is colors. It might also increase supply if they can pump these out faster than the 5 and avoid impinging on the 5s lines.
post #68 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by lukefrench View Post

ANALyst are idiots. the 5C brings last year 5 with the usual $100 reduction, but with a much easier to manufacture (even if it is still very complex so costly) process.

That means that margins will be better, both from usual repeat orders downcosts & new process. They will probably make more margin on the 5C than on the 5S. On a phone guaranteed to be a success.

With the addition of docomo & china mobile to add this is big.

Exactly. The new China Mobile / Docomo deals are the real news. Investor are a fickle bunch. They'll be back.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #69 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

Could just ONE analyst be fired for incompetence, please? One of them. Start small. I need some validation that the entire market isn't now completely full of idiots.

 

NO!!!!

 

They are very valuable to me... I just do the exact opposite of what they say....

post #70 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

This pricing seems very shortsighted. They seem to want to maintain their extremely high profit margins at the cost of losing market share and customers.... As a stockholder I really hope I am proven wrong and it sells beyond the wildest expectations in BRIC type countries and in the 1st world as well....

 

As a stockholder, you are the reason they want to maintain high profit margins. Qwitcherbellyachin!

post #71 of 297
I guess I'm the only reader here that thinks the stock market is a bunch of unstable opinion BS that shouldn't even exist in an economy that wants to be healthy. But then again, the wealthy bastards in power don't want it to be healthy because they're making more money than ever before, despite economic crashes.
post #72 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

That is true. With a few exceptions, AAPL historically drops after major product releases. That's why I even got bold and shorted AAPL yesterday for a quick trade.

However, and I don't recall 100%, but if I'm not mistaken, I don't believe that those previous drops were accompanied by multiple downgrades. And even on those prior drops, AAPL usually quickly recovers again. We shall see what happens this time. We will have our answer after Apple reveals how many phones were sold over the opening weekend.
I honestly could care less about Wall Street and I hold Apple stock. They want their cake and eat it too with Apple. No one at Apple ever indicated the company was going to make a cheap phone. It's not like they failed to deliver on something they promised because a cheap phone was never promised. Now maybe Apple could have leaked something to the WSJ or Bloomberg to dampen expectations of a cheap phone. But really its not Apple's fault if Wall Street gets a prediction wrong. And as you say it's all about sales. Either sales will be huge and these guys will have egg on their faces or sales will disappoint and Apple will be faced with having to lower prices (like they did with the original iPhone).
post #73 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by connector View Post

When did Tea Party style player-hating ever slither it's way into discussions about Apple? Give it a rest! If anyone is criticle of Apple it is us! You just hate for whatever reason.

Since 19ALWAYS.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #74 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain J View Post

I must admit, I do not see the market Apple is intending to target with the 5C. In the contract free world, it's too expensive for most (especially outside the US). At most it seems like the close price point will just canibalize sales from the 5s.

Seems to me the only thing the 5C brings to the table is colors. It might also increase supply if they can pump these out faster than the 5 and avoid impinging on the 5s lines.

 

I think the 5S will sell as well if not better than the 5... but I think the 5C needs to be bumped down at least $20, but no more than $30.

 

To me, $130 difference sounds much more than $100 difference.

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post #75 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by BUSHMAN4 View Post

5C is a respectable IPhone however wouldn't most people that are buying this iPhone rather spend another $100 and get the 5S??
Pricing is too high for the China market where Apple wants to be big in

 

You know,  If Apple can sales its whole production at current price, why they need to have a cheap product? Apple doesn't need to be big in China, they doesn't care at all about making cheap products and flooding the market with no margin device like most Android mfg  about to die battling each other with poor product. 

post #76 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by rain View Post
 

It's because of a few factors:

- No TV

- Mac Pro rumored to cost $8,000

- No vision for the future

 

Yet, when Amazon lowers prices on Kindle, AWS, and starts requiring payment of state sales tax, Their stock price goes up 17% on profits of... nothing... they're losing money [sort of... they make money on the cashflow... smart]

Or Google, who can't make decent hardware even after spending 15B to do so, is losing ad revenue, and is building out cheap Fiber Networks to the world....   there stock is up 30% over the last year... on 1/3rd the profit (adjusting for market cap).

 

What's their vision?

Everyone buying a kindle to replace their iPad?  Google Glass?  self driving cars?  right....

 

What's the difference?

Apple's Vision is beyond the scope of the 90 day limit of the standard investor.   The problem stock price is all about perception, and Apple's message is beyond what analysts can grok, therefore they have no perception, therefore no price.

 

If Apple doubles in revenues and profits again, (likely), my guess is their stock price will go up by 50%... putting their P/E under around 8.

And I do think it will double again.

 

Why.

The just built a plastic phone... If it really is as quality [lasts 2+ years] as they say it is ... they can build more different phones faster.   My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the 'c' line will likely change more frequently than annual... no reason for the 'c' line not to have a refresh at 8months to include stuff on the current 5s, then pump out the 6 in 12, then push a 3rd c out with stuff that was in the 5s (retire it the 5s), then in 2years push out the '6c' and the 6s.

 

The key here is that the 'c' is a fashion device.    It can be released in more SKU combinations (less cost to retool a line).

 

plastic also is easier to build out at different sizes.  More chance for a 5" iPhone now (or Ipad Mini 6")

 

A plastic 10" iPad... likely.  the 'edu' model.  The long game is to have every person in the world who is learning to read/write, to do so on an iPad.   (Grow your ecosystem early...)

 

iOS(OR... MacOSX ARM... take your pick .... or better... dual boot;-)) based laptops.  64bit is a compute platform... and given their heat/performance index... an 4 gang A8(quad) (16 procs... whole bunch of gpu) laptop comes into play.   Oh,  you're not paying intel for the Haswell. or Nvidia for graphics.   (or just the threat;-).

 

While all this is happening the cloud gets more stable and ubiquitous.   AppStore/iCloud evolve to be the real profit center for Apple, and Apple starts to crowd paypal and amazon with their TouchID verification.

post #77 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

No, that's not a valid option. I already don't read them. That's not good enough. They need PUNISHED for their LIES. Should anyone in any occupation be allowed to just lie for a living? No jokes here, please.

 

Tallest, you seem to be forgetting that, in almost every case where analysts and tech media have slammed Apple's new products, they've gone on to sell in record numbers.  Just treat it as a sign that it's going to be another record-breaking year for Apple.

 
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post #78 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

You obviously care. You started this.
Started what? I don't care. I'm just pointing out that the stock usually tanks after product launches. So this is par for the course. And really the worst that can happen is sales aren't as impressive and Apple has to lower prices in certain markets. Will be a bit of an embarrassment but not something the haven't done before. They did it with the original iPhone, MacBook Air and Apple TV, and probably some others I'm not thinking of.
post #79 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Started what? I don't care. I'm just pointing out that the stock usually tanks after product launches. So this is par for the course. And really the worst that can happen is sales aren't as impressive and Apple has to lower prices in certain markets. Will be a bit of an embarrassment but not something the haven't done before. They did it with the original iPhone, MacBook Air and Apple TV, and probably some others I'm not thinking of.

 

You lost  track, didn't you.

 

... but so did I... I thought it was you who started this... it was nagromme. You jumped into it though.

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post #80 of 297
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post

Having said that, I want everyone who doubted Ming to apologize. The guy is well connected and proved 100% accurate. I'm waiting... and I told you so.

After a cursory search, here are at least three things Ming-Chi Kuo got wrong: the aperture (predicted f2.0), the convex fingerprint sensor (it's flat), and the 128GB storage option (still peaks at 64GB). If you're going to predict specifics and you get them wrong, you can't claim 100% accuracy. If Kuo made a correct prediction before other analysts, kudos. But I own a dartboard that can beat any given analyst at predictions.

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