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Apple Online Store goes down ahead of iPhone 5c preorders (update: orders now live) - Page 4

post #121 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by narnio View Post
 

 

Just because they're making money today doesn't mean they will be tomorrow. Stupid business decisions kill companies all the time, and Apple's shrinking market share is not a reversing trend -- it's a trend that puts more pressure on them to make good decisions, which they are not doing.

 

But they've been making the same dumb claims about market share and Apple's impending doom since the iPod.  And they continue to be wrong because they are foisting an old business model onto Apple that doesn't and never has fit.  Point of fact...the iPhone has never been the market share leader in the smartphone category.  And yet, Apple keeps being the most profitable one in the segment and until Samsung basically took all the Android cookies from Moto, HTC and others was the ONLY one making money at all.

 

And who says this isn't a good decision?  You?  The same dingbats that keep being wrong all the time?

post #122 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

You specifically mentioned the era without Steve Jobs and now claim it has nothing to do with Steve Jobs? Really?

 

Yes... really.

 

I was talking about the decision making process.

 

Nothing to do with Steve Jobs at all.

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post #123 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by TitanTiger View Post

 

Yeah, it's not like they have any incentive to artificially push a stock price down, buy low, then reap the profits when it springs back up based on sound fundamentals, industry-envied profit margins and piles of cash to swim in.

At some point, these sorts of conspiracy theories call for a tinfoil hat....

 

C'mon. I know many of these guys/gals. Are they prescient? No. Are they operating with much more than the same scraps of info as we do? No. Are most of them trying connect the dots as honestly as they can (and subject to the limitations of all valuation models) given that info? Yes.

 

If you don't believe that, there's not much more to say. The only thing I would add is, if you were talking about analyst relations with inv banking in trading in the late 1990s and early 2000s, I'd agree with you somewhat; but their world has changed substantially in the past decade. (Disclaimer: I am not an analyst, and I largely ignore them in my investment decision-making).

post #124 of 175
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I was talking about the decision making process. Nothing to do with Steve Jobs at all.

 

He sure didn't make any of them… :lol:

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #125 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

. No they weren't rumors. I didn't see one story on rumor sites or Digitimes, WSJ etc. claiming they were hearing the 5C would be cheap. It wasn't rumor, it was speculation. Speculation that C stood for cheaper on the basis of the thought that Apple needs a cheaper off contract phone in Asia and Europe. There is something called managing expectations and Apple didn't do that.

Nonsense. You're playing silly semantic games. You make up new definitions for words and then complain when the whole world doesn't accept your definition.

There were bloggers and analysts speculating on the phone and saying it would be cheap. There were price estimates as low as $200 unlocked - which would be totally ridiculous.

Whether you want to call it a rumor or not, that's what it was. And the stock dropped dramatically after the announcement was higher than people believed it was going to be. That's a rumor.
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post #126 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by TitanTiger View Post
 

But they've been making the same dumb claims about market share and Apple's impending doom since the iPod.  

Nonsense. Get your facts straight. They've not been predicting 'impending doom.' The average analyst price forecast for AAPL has been quite substantially above the market price in the past year, when the stock tumbled from $700 to $400 and back up to $500.

 

In fact, it was higher than $700 when AAPL was $700. It is higher even after the handful of downgrades, but a lot less higher than the current price ($540 current average price forecast relative to a $475 stock price).

post #127 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

A bit strange -- or perhaps not -- that there aren't dozens of frustrated, hands-up-in-the-air "OMG, tried to order at 3AM, but couldn't" posts that have typically followed every iPhone intro since the 3G.

1. Apple has learned it's lesson and prepared.
2. The flagship model isn't available to pre-order
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Dumbass? Wow that's really classy. AAPL giving back all it's gains from yesterday as another firm (Jeffries) downgraded the stock this morning. That's 4 downgrades since the Tuesday announcement. If Apple's plan is so brilliant they certainly haven't sold many people on it.

So you like the analysts that caused the Great Recession?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post

One of the great mysteries about Apple - why can't they update their store without taking it down, like almost every other online retailer on the planet?

It's not that Apple can't, it's they don't keep it up. It's about anticipation and the fact they are confident enough to stop selling all items for three hours. Other vendors can't shut there stored down because they need the money.
post #128 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

. No they weren't rumors. I didn't see one story on rumor sites or Digitimes, WSJ etc. claiming they were hearing the 5C would be cheap. It wasn't rumor, it was speculation. Speculation that C stood for cheaper on the basis of the thought that Apple needs a cheaper off contract phone in Asia and Europe. There is something called managing expectations and Apple didn't do that.
Speciation without facts are rumors or bad analysis. What analyst will admit to the latter.
post #129 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

So you like the analysts that caused the Great Recession?

Oh... please, please.... get your facts straight. Equity analysts had little or nothing to with the last recession.

 

At least, if you had mentioned the bond rating agencies (e.g., S&P, Moody's) and their bond analysts, I could give you partial credit.

post #130 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

[Speculation] without facts are rumors or bad analysis. 

I'd urge you to follow your own advice.

post #131 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

He sure didn't make any of them… :lol:

 

Spindler tried to produce Mac models that would appeal to the masses. Making cheaper models in an attempt to gain market share. Although Mac market share did make some gains, Windows market share grew substantially more.

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post #132 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

Oh... please, please.... get your facts straight. Equity analysts had little or nothing to with the last recession.

 

At least, if you had mentioned the bond rating agencies (e.g., S&P, Moody's) and their bond analysts, I could give you partial credit.

 

I thought he was talking about 1929.  :lol:
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post #133 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by narnio View Post
 

 

Sounds to me like your mommy and daddy are paying your bills.   People who work for a living are increasingly demanding no contract, and for $550 the 5C is a really bad deal.

 

Sounds to me like you really don't know anything about who's demanding what.  Mommy and Daddy don't pay for jackshit with me and haven't for 20 years or so.  Wife and I both work, have a couple of kids and for us, we've found a carrier we like and just get the phone with a contract.  I won't rule out going to something like TMobile eventually but even then the money down is about the same as the price without contract.  I don't know that I ever plan on going straight now contract.

post #134 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Nonsense. You're playing silly semantic games. You make up new definitions for words and then complain when the whole world doesn't accept your definition.

There were bloggers and analysts speculating on the phone and saying it would be cheap. There were price estimates as low as $200 unlocked - which would be totally ridiculous.

Whether you want to call it a rumor or not, that's what it was. And the stock dropped dramatically after the announcement was higher than people believed it was going to be. That's a rumor.
Fine call it rumors. Still Apple didn't manage expectations. Of course they wouldn't directly respond to rumors but a little birdy could have whispered something to Jim Dalrymple or the WSJ that these really low pricing guesses were off the mark.

A while back 9to5Mac ran with a story about iOS 7 code referencing a non-retina iPad mini. That got picked up elsewhere as evidence that the mini would not be retina. Then a day or two later the WSJ (and Bloomberg) put out stories that the next mini would be retina. Doesn't take a genius to figure out where WSJ ans Bloomberg got their information from.

Apple does leak things from time to time. They could have managed pricing expectations on the 5C better.
post #135 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

At some point, these sorts of conspiracy theories call for a tinfoil hat....

 

C'mon. I know many of these guys/gals. Are they prescient? No. Are they operating with much more than the same scraps of info as we do? No. Are most of them trying connect the dots as honestly as they can (and subject to the limitations of all valuation models) given that info? Yes.

 

If you don't believe that, there's not much more to say. The only thing I would add is, if you were talking about analyst relations with inv banking in trading in the late 1990s and early 2000s, I'd agree with you somewhat; but their world has changed substantially in the past decade. (Disclaimer: I am not an analyst, and I largely ignore them in my investment decision-making).

 

 

It's not a conspiracy and it's not just Apple they do it to.  Jim Cramer and others have all but admitted to such shenanigans.  If you really thing there's no incentive to push a stock price down, buy lower and sell high I don't know what to tell you.

post #136 of 175
Other rumor sites are reporting that the yellow one is the first to sell out, ship date now 9/25
post #137 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I'd urge you to follow your own advice.

I was talking about the banks that employ the paid guessers in general and not the individual analysts.
post #138 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by WardC View Post

It's not going to sell. People are going to realize the color thing is just a gimmick. Inside it is identically an iPhone 5 100% -- nothing new.
You forget there are still folks rocking the 3GS and 4. For them a 5 is a huge step up. They don't need the latest and greatest and are often money conscious enough that saying $100 is fine with them.

So while this phone might not sell like the super high tech 5s, it will likely sell enough to be worth it to the company. Although selling it as a replacement to the 4s and 5 in 8 GB and 16gb would probably have been better sales wise, and dumping the old 30 pin wise.

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #139 of 175
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post
You forget

 

It's amazing how stupid people are. I mean, I have bad memory (that I maintain is medical), but these people are pretending like the last four years of iPhone pricing never happened. 

 

I don't understand why we put up with it.

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #140 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


You forget there are still folks rocking the 3GS and 4. For them a 5 is a huge step up. They don't need the latest and greatest and are often money conscious enough that saying $100 is fine with them.

So while this phone might not sell like the super high tech 5s, it will likely sell enough to be worth it to the company. Although selling it as a replacement to the 4s and 5 in 8 GB and 16gb would probably have been better sales wise, and dumping the old 30 pin wise.

 

I was thinking that Apple could have upped the specs in the 4S. Stick an A6 in it. 

 

My Wife and I love that phone. We like the chunkier form factor. :)

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post #141 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

A bit strange -- or perhaps not -- that there aren't dozens of frustrated, hands-up-in-the-air "OMG, tried to order at 3AM, but couldn't" posts that have typically followed every iPhone intro since the 3G.

The way the Apple Is Doomed(TM) crowd explained past Apple product launches:

If delivery date is quickly pushed back, its a sign of "supply constraint," not high demand.

If delivery date doesn't move it's a sign of "lack of demand," not increased launch supply.

And if they're proven wrong later (they always are) they quietly disappear from the forums, lay low until the next product launch. Then the "Apple's not competitive meme" starts all over again.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

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post #142 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

The 4S doesn't have a retina display?
post #143 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


The 4S doesn't have a retina display?

 

I have the same medical affliction as Tallest Skil.

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post #144 of 175
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I have the same medical affliction as Tallest Skil.

 

What, bad memory or being foolish enough to read things right after waking up? :lol:

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #145 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

It's amazing how stupid people are. I mean, I have bad memory (that I maintain is medical), but these people are pretending like the last four years of iPhone pricing never happened. 

I don't understand why we put up with it.
I don't get the point of the colored iPhone if Apple expects it to be so expensive off contract. Other than bigger profit margins. But isn't Apple supposed to be a product company, not a profit margin company? Who exactly is Apple targeting with this product?
post #146 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

What, bad memory or being foolish enough to read things right after waking up? :lol:

 

Bad memory... and "writing" things right after waking up.

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post #147 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


Absolutely, totally wrong.

First, you don't have any idea what the costs are.

More importantly, selling prices are not based on cost-they're based on what the market will pay. Apple sets the price in such a way as to maximize its profitability. In order to do so, they have to consider:
- Manufacturing cost
- Price elasticity (that is, how many units could they sell at each price level)
- Market positioning
- Likely competitive response
- Other factors

The fact that you think price should be based on manufacturing cost is sure proof that you don't know what you're talking about. Apple knows what they're doing. You don't.

 

It's common knowledge that the iPhone usually has the highest margin of any of Apple's products, so he's probably not totally wrong, though I agree that boiling it down to manufacturing cost is overly simplistic.

 

To add to your list, the licensing to use cellular and 3G/4G radios likely costs more than the parts.

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post #148 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


I don't get the point of the colored iPhone if Apple expects it to be so expensive off contract. Other than bigger profit margins. But isn't Apple supposed to be a product company, not a profit margin company? Who exactly is Apple targeting with this product?

 

Good question.

 

Must be young females. It's a big market... but not that big.

 

I guess the white one would have a wider appeal.

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post #149 of 175
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
I don't get the point of the colored iPhone if Apple expects it to be so expensive off contract.


To sell five colored iPhones rather a black and white one. To give people more choices within the same pricing structure.

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #150 of 175

I think the more concerning issue is not selling the 5S on line.  That is going to hurts sales.  Sure, it will make for some great video as people who would normally buy online go to stores (lines), but there will also be a large percentage of online shoppers that simply dont buy the phone.  Heck, in a lot of countries people don live anywhere near a brick and mortar store.  I assume they will eventually sell online, but I would think the release date would be a good time to sell as many as possible.

 

I think this only confirms the supply constraints they are under.  For a guy who allegedly was a supply expert Cook is 0-2 on release dates when it comes to supply.

post #151 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by TitanTiger View Post

 

It's not a conspiracy and it's not just Apple they do it to.  Jim Cramer and others have all but admitted to such shenanigans.  If you really thing there's no incentive to push a stock price down, buy lower and sell high I don't know what to tell you.

Is there an incentive in some portion of the market push stocks down? You bet. That's what short-sellers live on. A vast majority of equity analysts -- the ones whose names are trotted out here -- and the institutions they work for have little or nothing to do with that crowd.

 

If you think Jim Cramer matters for stock prices, you do need a tinfoil hat.

post #152 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter524 View Post

Very poor pre-sale in HK and China. Still able to order after shop opens for 80 minutes.

It used to sold out within 8 minutes or even less
What are you saying? When has last years cheaper model ever sold out in 8 min? Too funny. This is proof you place higher sales expectations on 5c then you would on the 5 for the same price. This says a lot.
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post #153 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by snova View Post

What are you saying? When has last years cheaper model ever sold out in 8 min? Too funny. This is proof you place higher sales expectations on 5c then you would on the 5 for the same price. This says a lot.

He's probably talking about this old story:
http://www.slashgear.com/iphone-4s-pre-order-stock-sold-out-in-10-minutes-in-hong-kong-07193673/
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post #154 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Nonsense. Get your facts straight. They've not been predicting 'impending doom.' The average analyst price forecast for AAPL has been quite substantially above the market price in the past year, when the stock tumbled from $700 to $400 and back up to $500.

Really? Have a look at this:
http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/13/citing-iphone-5s-yields-iphone-5c-pricing-jefferies-lowers-apple-target-to-425

Furthermore, for the past couple of years (certainly, at least, since Jobs died), the analysts have been spreading doom and gloom about Apple. No more innovation. Saturated market. Losing share. Android eating their lunch. On and on and on. While the price predictions haven't always reflected that, the published reports on Apple have been uniformly negative for quite a while - with no rational reason.
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post #155 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post
 

 

It's common knowledge that the iPhone usually has the highest margin of any of Apple's products, so he's probably not totally wrong, though I agree that boiling it down to manufacturing cost is overly simplistic.

 

To add to your list, the licensing to use cellular and 3G/4G radios likely costs more than the parts.

 

Yes it was simplistic. I do have some sort of life compared so others on here so I'm not going to waste my time going into every last detail, and given the vast cost difference there isn't really any need to so to see that Apple are making huge margins on these new phones and could easily have priced them lower if they choose to do so.

 

The reason why I compared the price to the iPad mini cellular was that it would have most, if not all, of those licensing costs. Yet the 5c is quite a bit more expensive, even with higher material costs on the iPad with the larger more expensive battery, case, glass etc.

 

Personally I think the 5c pricing is a mistake. They could have used it to enter the mid tier smartphone market whilst keeping margins high. Instead it is priced as a high end phone - £479 for the 16GB model here in the UK. Clearly the US market is very different but in the UK there are more and more people that are not willing to pay that kind of money for a phone anymore - the market is rapidly becoming commoditised with cheaper alternatives available that are 'good enough'.

 

On contract prices are also too high. Whilst the up front cost may be ok, the monthly charge is loaded by the carrier with extra the repayment cost of the phone - monthly costs are higher for iPhone contracts compared to others here in the UK. For example:

iPhone 5c - £49 up front + £41 per month

HTC one - £29 up front + £36 per month

Samsung S4 - £49 up front + £37 per month

 

as you can see TCO for the 5c is more and really it is the 5s that should be compared to the S4 and HTC One not last years iPhone 5 in a cheaper case.

 

With a more competitive price I would have looked at a 5c for my daughter but not at that price. Last year I purchased a used iPhone 4 for £150 and use a £7.50 per month pay as you go SIM. I'll keep using that model rather than purchase new and bump her up to a 4s or 5 next year.

post #156 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by snova View Post

What are you saying? When has last years cheaper model ever sold out in 8 min? Too funny. This is proof you place higher sales expectations on 5c then you would on the 5 for the same price. This says a lot.

He's probably talking about this old story:
http://www.slashgear.com/iphone-4s-pre-order-stock-sold-out-in-10-minutes-in-hong-kong-07193673/

Look at the date of the article. 4s was the year old model in nov 2011? You sure about that?
The mention of iPhone 5 in the article was around the naming fiasco in which the next phone after the 4 was called the 4s instead of the 5
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post #157 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

I don't get the point of the colored iPhone if Apple expects it to be so expensive off contract. Other than bigger profit margins. But isn't Apple supposed to be a product company, not a profit margin company? Who exactly is Apple targeting with this product?

Um the market is not for iPhone 5 owners. It's for converts and upgraders that aren't interested in the latest and greatest. It's also for those who love colors.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

I think this only confirms the supply constraints they are under.  For a guy who allegedly was a supply expert Cook is 0-2 on release dates when it comes to supply.

I could have sworn Apple had released more than 2 products in the last two years. Oh wait they have. Don't those other releases count as wins?
post #158 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


So basically it's an iPhone 5, only less more affordable. And that won't sell?

 

More affordable and in an entirely new aesthetic for a different consumer than the stark 5 appealed to with a wider radio system compatibility range.

post #159 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
 

I think the more concerning issue is not selling the 5S on line.  That is going to hurts sales.  Sure, it will make for some great video as people who would normally buy online go to stores (lines), but there will also be a large percentage of online shoppers that simply dont buy the phone.  Heck, in a lot of countries people don live anywhere near a brick and mortar store.  I assume they will eventually sell online, but I would think the release date would be a good time to sell as many as possible.

 

I think this only confirms the supply constraints they are under.  For a guy who allegedly was a supply expert Cook is 0-2 on release dates when it comes to supply.

 

 

 

They start selling online at 12:01 A.M. P.S.T. September 20th.

 

http://store.apple.com/us/buy-iphone/iphone5s

 

Or:

"

Online iPhone 5s orders open at 12:01 a.m. Pacific Sept. 20, in-store sales begin locally at 8 a.m.

By Neil Hughes

While it won't be available to preorder, the iPhone 5s will hit Apple's online store at 12:01 Pacific next Friday, Sept. 20, while Apple's retail stores will begin selling the device when they open at 8 a.m. local time."

 

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/13/online-iphone-5s-orders-open-at-1201-am-pacific-sept-20-in-store-sales-begin-locally-at-8-am-local

post #160 of 175

Well, take a look at this, and calculate the average (there are 15 or 16 analysts listed with their price targets): http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/09/11/apple-iphone-5c-analysts/

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