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Citing iPhone 5s yields & iPhone 5c pricing, Jefferies lowers Apple target to $425 - Page 3

post #81 of 139
Anyone familiar with iPhone4U? Just wondering if this is an outlier or indicative of what sales will be.

iPhone 5S & iPhone 5C demand “truly phenomenal”
Quote:
“The demand for the new iPhone 5c and 5s has been truly phenomenal in the first few days of pre-registration. We have already seen double digit growth in pre-registrations compared to the same period for iPhone 5 last year, and with the exceptional rate in which we are receiving these, we are predicting that the new handsets will set a record as generating the most pre-registrations ever at Phones 4u,” said Scott Hooton, Chief Commercial Officer at Phones 4u.

He added: “To date, this interest has also shown that 75 per cent are intending to purchase the new iPhone 5c or 5s on 4G, so not only are we expecting pre-orders of the iPhone 5c to go through the roof this weekend, we are gearing up for an exceptionally busy launch day on 20th September, when both officially go on-sale at Phones 4u stores across the country and online.”
post #82 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluestone View Post
 

And then we have Carl Icahn, not known for being an idiot, putting a lot of his money on the other side of the analysts mouths.  Now, who do you think knows more?

 

And I suppose when Icahn tweets everyone to buy to inflate the stock so he can dump his shares, you'll do as he recommends?

post #83 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

Apple's innovating fast enough, it's just the mfg plants can't produce their innovations fast enough. That's what happens when you innovate.

intel can't innovate fast enough to get their XEON and Thunderbolt 2 chipsets out fast enough for Apple's other innovations. So, who's at fault? Intel? They can't innovate and mfg fast enough.

Or how about TSMC's mfg, can they spit out enough A7 chips fast enough to keep up with Apple's innovation?

God, I am so sick of the word innovation. It's now the most overused word in the industry and it's catching on in other industries.

What about the saying "thinking outside the box"? That was overused and now it's coming back around becoming overused.

How come the media doesn't rip apart the OEM Android IDIOTS that can't keep up with OS updates? NOT ONE SINGLE OEM ANDROID PRODUCT SHIPS WITH 4.3, which is the latest version. What's wrong with these idiots? Can't they INNOVATE?

What's wrong with Android, can't they come out with 64 bit chips in their smartphones? Can't they innovate fast enough?

Nice rant. Thanks.

Apple and Authentec are supposed to just throw a switch and start making millions of something that's never been made before. If there are shortages it's the fault of "management." Not unknowns in the technology of mass manufacturing something new, but "management."

People like asdasd and pazuzu should be put to work on the floor sawing sapphire for eighty days, ten hours a day.
post #84 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

"Jefferies' channel checks indicate that production yields on the fingerprint sensor Apple included in the 5s "have been terrible.""

Yeah, right. "Jeffries", you're an idiot.

Yes, they're basically admitting to obtaining market data illegally or just lying.

post #85 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Anyone familiar with iPhone4U? Just wondering if this is an outlier or indicative of what sales will be.

iPhone 5S & iPhone 5C demand “truly phenomenal”

 

I'm not familiar with them, since I don't live in the UK, but.......from wiki......

 

Phones 4u is a large independent mobile phone retailer in the United Kingdom. It is part of the 4u Group based in Newcastle-under-LymeStaffordshire. Since opening in 1996, it has expanded to over 600 stores throughout the UK.

post #86 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by WonkoTheSane View Post

And so the analyst spoke: thou shall be punished for being innovative!

Innovative? They took last years phone and tossed it into a god awful pastel plastic shell. What's so innovative about that?
post #87 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
What's wrong with Android, can't they come out with 64 bit chips in their smartphones? Can't they innovate fast enough?

That's the laugher Apple has set the world up for. Amazing the "tech" media hasn't seen that even now.

post #88 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I'm not familiar with them, since I don't live in the UK, but.......from wiki......

Phones 4u is a large independent mobile phone
 retailer in the United Kingdom
. It is part of the 4u Group based in Newcastle-under-Lyme
Staffordshire
. Since opening in 1996, it has expanded to over 600 stores throughout the UK.

Soo...I wonder of this means iPhone color sales will be bigger than expected? I don't want to read too much in to one report. I said I didn't think Apple would announce sales of the iPhone color but if the numbers are good I think they might just to shut up some of the negativity.
post #89 of 139
With Steve Jobs long gone, Wall Street can give Apple a low a share price as it wants and there's nothing anyone can do about it. Tim Cook is a feeble CEO who is easily pushed around. I'm sure it's not easy for Tim to stand forever in Steve Jobs shadow, but it's either that or leave. Apple is run by a bunch of softies who let rivals walk all over them. If Apple were like Microsoft, half of those Android smartphone and tablet vendors would have been put out of business already. I still think that Apple needs to go after Google with a search engine and start taking away Google's search engine market share like Android is doing to Apple. Pretty soon Apple isn't going to have a pot to piss in as Android OS floods the industry with the cheapest smartphones possible. Wall Street will just stand there and laugh as Apple's market share dwindles away.

It really doesn't matter how much profit Apple makes, as as the iPhone's market share declines, Apple's shareholder value will decline. Apple should also buy a couple of media companies to reverse-manipulate all the FUD that's thrown their way. All I know is that for a company that's sitting on a Mt. Everest-sized pile of cash it should never be in the predicament it's in now. Wall Street is deliberately downgrading Apple just for kicks because it knows Tim Cook won't retaliate.
post #90 of 139
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post
The 4S is an old phone. It will be supported for one iOS upgrade. 7.

 

8.

post #91 of 139

I don't believe a word from this guy. Every year it's the same game. Drop the price targets and come up with some reason as to why Apple is doomed. Wait a week or too and then let reality raise the stock price... sell = profit.  Remember what Tim Cook said? Don't try to read supply chain to determine what's happening.  It's like reading tea leaves at the bottom of a cup.

 

I believe Apple gave the 5C a head start to differentiate between the 5S and the 5C.  It also provides more energy around the 5S launch and deals with scalpers better potentially.  Since they are launching to more countries this time around, they probably want to make sure they have enough stock at stores instead of having a stock out until the next shipment.  I don't think it has anything to do with production issues, or if it does, they have already accounted for that as best they can.

post #92 of 139

Still better than any Android POS.

post #93 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

[feeble, wordy doomsday rant]

 

This is so generic, you could have written it a year ago.  Not feeling up to a fresh screed today?

post #94 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Soo...I wonder of this means iPhone color sales will be bigger than expected? I don't want to read too much in to one report. I said I didn't think Apple would announce sales of the iPhone color but if the numbers are good I think they might just to shut up some of the negativity.

 

I don't really mind the negativity, because there's really not much that can be done about it. It's always the same story, and when Apple announces the real figures, everybody will know what the real deal is.

 

Remember last year when the iPhone 5 went on sale in China? There were reports everywhere about weak sales in China and no lines. Very many "news" outlets were running with that story. And what turned out to be the real story? Yep, record breaking sales in China.

 

I think that it's a good idea to pay close attention to who says what and who predicts what. It's good to know which analysts and media outlets are guilty of lying and spreading false info. The same goes for this forum too. There have been many dumb comments made in recent days, and after these people have been proven wrong, they will cease to exist, as far as I'm concerned. I have no time for liars, morons and clueless people.

post #95 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


No it doesn't. Apple would have produced more if they could and could sell them cheaper. I bet that was the plan but again management messed up.

 

I bet you're wrong.

post #96 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

With Steve Jobs long gone, Wall Street can give Apple a low a share price as it wants and there's nothing anyone can do about it. Tim Cook is a feeble CEO who is easily pushed around. I'm sure it's not easy for Tim to stand forever in Steve Jobs shadow, but it's either that or leave. Apple is run by a bunch of softies who let rivals walk all over them. If Apple were like Microsoft, half of those Android smartphone and tablet vendors would have been put out of business already. I still think that Apple needs to go after Google with a search engine and start taking away Google's search engine market share like Android is doing to Apple. Pretty soon Apple isn't going to have a pot to piss in as Android OS floods the industry with the cheapest smartphones possible. Wall Street will just stand there and laugh as Apple's market share dwindles away.

It really doesn't matter how much profit Apple makes, as as the iPhone's market share declines, Apple's shareholder value will decline. Apple should also buy a couple of media companies to reverse-manipulate all the FUD that's thrown their way. All I know is that for a company that's sitting on a Mt. Everest-sized pile of cash it should never be in the predicament it's in now. Wall Street is deliberately downgrading Apple just for kicks because it knows Tim Cook won't retaliate.

This is one of dumbest posts I've read on AI.

Seriously, what the hell are you talking about? Apple doing a search engine???
post #97 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

With Steve Jobs long gone, Wall Street can give Apple a low a share price as it wants and there's nothing anyone can do about it. Tim Cook is a feeble CEO who is easily pushed around. I'm sure it's not easy for Tim to stand forever in Steve Jobs shadow, but it's either that or leave. Apple is run by a bunch of softies who let rivals walk all over them. If Apple were like Microsoft, half of those Android smartphone and tablet vendors would have been put out of business already. I still think that Apple needs to go after Google with a search engine and start taking away Google's search engine market share like Android is doing to Apple. Pretty soon Apple isn't going to have a pot to piss in as Android OS floods the industry with the cheapest smartphones possible. Wall Street will just stand there and laugh as Apple's market share dwindles away.

It really doesn't matter how much profit Apple makes, as as the iPhone's market share declines, Apple's shareholder value will decline. Apple should also buy a couple of media companies to reverse-manipulate all the FUD that's thrown their way. All I know is that for a company that's sitting on a Mt. Everest-sized pile of cash it should never be in the predicament it's in now. Wall Street is deliberately downgrading Apple just for kicks because it knows Tim Cook won't retaliate.

 

You keep coming back and posting these ridiculous rants, and ending up dead wrong in your "predictions" every time, and yet here you are again, right on schedule, "without a pot to piss in" of your own. 

 

I'd like you to go back and address and acknowledge ALL your previous, negative, utterly wrong-headed posts before ever posting another new one. Can ya? Huh? Pretty please?

 

If you don't, maybe I'll start copy-pasting the stuff you said, along with how wrong it was. And see if you'll reply...

post #98 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by benji888 View Post


Apple made a smart long term move with the 5c: because of its simpler construction, it will be much easier to produce and keep up with demand. And, next year it will be entry level iPhone, the following year, they will update the innards...it will be a design they keep in the entry level iPhone position.

These people are likely the ones that fed the low-price iPhone rumor, so that, when it didn't happen they could drive the price down, buy more, then watch it go back into a steady upswing on the long term.

I think a lot of people are overlooking the important fact of your first paragraph. It's an important new product and Apple just signed big deals in China and Japan. More time was given to the 5c on stage last week. The Apple store app features the 5c at the top. I think that's why it's only the 5c you can preorder. They want to support the somewhat unknown new product. The 5s will sell itself practically.

Oh ya, and the stock will of course go back up and past the previous losses.
post #99 of 139

This guy's argument makes no sense and he's never studied things like economics or marketing.  First, for Apple to sell a product for less doesn't equate more revenue.  There's a sweet spot with pricing strategies.  You don't want to make stuff cheaper just because you can.  If you do, you erode the value of your brand and head towards commodity which is where Android is.  Apple is a premium brand and will maintain its position there.  If you want a cheap phone, go and get one. If you want a great phone, spend the money and get the best device with customer satisfaction and service that no one else can touch.

 

Economically speaking... if the phone is in demand, then you don't raise the price. If the analyst is saying they can't make enough, why go through all the expense and headache to create a bunch and sacrifice quality just to drop the price.  You won't be able to sustain it. Instead, Apple has dropped the price with a new offering that is better than the original iPhone in a number of ways, while creating something that is new and innovative in the 5s.  This marketing strategy is pretty smart really because it gives me a true choice when getting a new phone. Now I'm going with the 5s, but I had to give serious thought to the 5c too.

 

So I guess the idea that cheaper and more is better is false. There are plenty of Android devices just collecting dust or thrown away. I have seen this with my own eyes. My iPhone 4s? You can't take it away from me.

post #100 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


No it doesn't. Apple would have produced more if they could and could sell them cheaper. I bet that was the plan but again management messed up.

 

Well, I could start over with answering "If we take history as our guide..."

post #101 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by jkichline View Post
 

This guy's argument makes no sense and he's never studied things like economics or marketing.  First, for Apple to sell a product for less doesn't equate more revenue.  There's a sweet spot with pricing strategies.  You don't want to make stuff cheaper just because you can.

It's also virtually impossible to raise prices if you've gone too low.

 

The media fails to recognize* that most Android handsets have been sold to people who don't know if they want a smartphone or don't really care if they own a smartphone--which is why most Android phones aren't used much for their Internet capabilities, not to mention the cheap construction that soon breaks and leaves the customer with an expensive brick.

 

In contrast, iPhones are sold to people who want them--and want them to work well for a long time to come.

 

*The media fails to recognize in print (as opposed to in thoughts), because so many advertising dollars are available from Android handset makers. The bigger the war waged between Apple and Android/Googorola, the more advertising money that gets placed on the table. Oh, did I forget to mention Windows Phone. Yes, it's very forgettable.

post #102 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


The 4S is an old phone. It will be supported for one iOS upgrade. 7. It's not got the lure of the new.

Now if they sold the 5C at that price - we would be cooking.

 

I would imagine it will at LEAST get iOS 8.

 

It is(will be) shipping with iOS 7. 

 

And it will be a big seller in emerging markets at only $450, which is conveniently the price analysts were expecting. 

post #103 of 139
I am, admittedly, analyst speak ignorant. Can someone explain setting a target $40 lower then the current trade price? He was wrong at $450 and thinks more wrong is right? I guess this firm already had a SELL recommendation?
post #104 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristophB View Post

Can someone explain setting a target $40 lower then the current trade price? 

 

I believe that analyst's targets are 12 months ahead. So this genius is predicting that AAPL will be at his target price 12 months from now.

post #105 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by Landcruiser View Post

This is why I'm no longer in the market. 

So, what's your Plan B? The pillow?

post #106 of 139

This analyst is a fool. I am surprised that anyone pays him any attention.

post #107 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by RickFaced View Post
 

Quick everyone dump your stock! Lets help this market manipulator buy more shares.

 

Yes, definitely.  just dumped mine at $474 yesterday.  Will buy back at $400 again.  you don't think it'll drop?  just wait and see.  The manipulator will make it just like less than 3 months ago.

post #108 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by EricTheHalfBee View Post

So what will Apple stock do on Monday when they announce "We sold x million iPhones on launch weekend" like they always do?

If they sell 3 million it will drop because it's not enough. If they sell 5 million it will drop because they ran out of stock and have production problems. If they sell 7 million the stock will drop as these represent all the people due for an upgrade and sales will plummet next quarter.

Did I miss any?

Sure. If they sell 200 million, the stock will drop because all those phones will be creating a black hole and destroying the factory. Or something like that.

The analysts don't need to be intelligent or logical. They can say whatever the heck they want.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #109 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

Apple's innovating fast enough, it's just the mfg plants can't produce their innovations fast enough. That's what happens when you innovate.

intel can't innovate fast enough to get their XEON and Thunderbolt 2 chipsets out fast enough for Apple's other innovations. So, who's at fault? Intel? They can't innovate and mfg fast enough.

Or how about TSMC's mfg, can they spit out enough A7 chips fast enough to keep up with Apple's innovation?

God, I am so sick of the word innovation. It's now the most overused word in the industry and it's catching on in other industries.

What about the saying "thinking outside the box"? That was overused and now it's coming back around becoming overused.

How come the media doesn't rip apart the OEM Android IDIOTS that can't keep up with OS updates? NOT ONE SINGLE OEM ANDROID PRODUCT SHIPS WITH 4.3, which is the latest version. What's wrong with these idiots? Can't they INNOVATE?

What's wrong with Android, can't they come out with 64 bit chips in their smartphones? Can't they innovate fast enough?

Spot on about the word innovation. It's twisted into whatever Apple isn't doing at the moment. Bigger screens. NFC. KFC. TV. Glass. Ass. Half- baked cookies. It's a code word for a perpetually morphing target to criticize Apple with. And when Apple finally does what the fandroids want, it's "copying."

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #110 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundvision View Post

This is one of dumbest posts I've read on AI.

Seriously, what the hell are you talking about? Apple doing a search engine???

Have you never read Odo's anti-Timid Cook rants? They're tinfoil hat crazy.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #111 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristophB View Post

Can someone explain setting a target $40 lower then the current trade price? 

I believe that analyst's targets are 12 months ahead. So this genius is predicting that AAPL will be at his target price 12 months from now.

The price target period just covers up until the point where they decide to change it. Apple's stock value looks like it will settle long-term somewhere between $400-550. Anything above $430 gives them the highest market cap in the world and they don't always make the most profit (revenue is the factor that seems to get used more but it's the same deal) out of all companies in the world. I expect the price will fluctuate in that range every year going forward. Some people will make decent returns by timing it right. If they buy in the low $400s, ride it back up to $500 when Apple reports record results, they get their inflation-beating 25% return. They can do this every year. The stock price can easily fall to $425 or less before Apple's results come out in October. It's only after they put the results out that people know what the sales have been like. If Apple plans to keep buying back shares, they should do it when it's in the low $400s.

I don't think Carl Icahn invested in Apple with the expectation for the stock to go up btw. I think he saw the cash hoard and is trying to find ways to drain it. Right now, his stake in Apple is probably worth less than when he bought it.
post #112 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

To be fair, things are different in other parts of the world. In much of the world, phones are typically not subsidized, so the real prices are $549 vs $649 (for the 5S). And, yes, there are a lot of people who could afford $400, but not $550 - they may have to save up for an entire year or more just to get the $400.

That doesn't mean that Apple should go after that market, but denying the existence of people who really can't afford more doesn't help, either.

Aren't all flagship phones about $649 around the world?

How does a company like Samsung get away with charging $649 for a Galaxy S4 or Galaxy Note?

Is it because Samsung also offers a whole range of phones starting at $80 unlocked?
post #113 of 139
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast View Post
 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd

 

The 4S is an old phone. It will be supported for one iOS upgrade. 7. It's not got the lure of the new.

 

Now if they sold the 5C at that price - we would be cooking. 

 

I would imagine it will at LEAST get iOS 8.

 

It is(will be) shipping with iOS 7. 

 

And it will be a big seller in emerging markets at only $450, which is conveniently the price analysts were expecting. 

 

4s... yep... it will go to that $299 level... or lower

Remember a lot of carrier/gov't contracts have 'minimum number of production/replacement years'  My guess is we have at least 2 full years to cover a 4 year iPhone 4 coverage [gotta to have the same formfactor... specifically the cable support]

 

the 5c... my guess is it will:

  • be updated every 6-9  months
  • Will incrementally add 5s capabilities
    • first A7 Chip/M7 (the May 14 5c)
    • Then camera (the October 5c... oh then the 5s upgrades to the 6s... who knows what it is)
    • then fingerprint ...which pretty much makes it a 5s... or 6c 
  • Only then will the 5c price come down to somewhere near the 4s prices now.

 

I do think at some point the 'big' phone a (5" diag) will come to the 'c' line first, just because of the manufacturing flexibility (pour a mold... extract, cool done.)  But that will be iOS 9 (after dropping support for the 3.5" non-retina geometries, and the iPad 2 geometry)

 

The flagship line will be about the superiority... the c class is about choice and competition with the bulk competitors.

(my guess is the iPad mini will morph to plastic... although the usage pattern (holding by an edge) may preclude it.

post #114 of 139
These bad yield rumors have sprung up before from different sources about the Touch ID so it's believable. I think Apple was afraid to put iPhone 5S up for pre-order because they will sell out day 1 with a 6-8 week waiting time by day 2. So they opt for the first come first serve model to kill 2 birds with 1 stone.

Long lines form for the iPhone 5S

Many people hold off buying the 5S for a few weeks until the demand slows giving Apple enough time to fulfill those new orders quickly.
post #115 of 139

I am sure Jeffries has a ton of Apple Stock he just unloaded on another troll who is selling to another troll!

post #116 of 139

It is disgusting how much Apple is making in profit for a 16GB to 32GB to 64GB...It only cost them $10 more to get a 32 GB and then another $10 for the 64GB...That is a joke.  They know how to market and make $$$

post #117 of 139

5s: Demand outpacing supply of iPhones on launch weekend is nothing new.  As long as supply ramps up in the Oct-Dec quarter, it'll be another resounding success.

 

5c: Don't expect the 5c to exhibit the same problems with supply/demand since it's really not a new phone.

*demand is moderate other than new markets (e.g. Docomo, new geographic areas, etc.).  Don't get me wrong, demand is massive, but distributed across many months rather than the launch weekend.

*supply chain is already efficient from day 1

 

It's actually an amazing thing watching Apple ready 10s of millions of iPhones for these 2 weekends of launch.  You can bet on some supply chain hiccups along the way.

post #118 of 139
HA HA H AH AH AH A HA HA HA H AH AH!

BA HA HA!

This is so GD funny. That stupid Tim Cook. As long as AAPL issues their dividend, the stock will trade sideways (at best). Mark my words.



HA HA H AH AH AH A HA HA HA H AH AH!

BA HA HA!
post #119 of 139
Originally Posted by Potsie Webber View Post
This is so GD funny. That stupid Tim Cook. As long as AAPL issues their dividend, the stock will trade sideways (at best). Mark my words.

 

Seems you misspelled your username at signup. "Patsy" has an 'a'.

post #120 of 139
I would ask how all these analysts are going to keep their jobs when Apple reports yet another year of record breaking iPhone sales, but we've seen this show before, and we all know how it's going to end.
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