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post #161 of 222

I concur with those who maintain that Apple will release iPhone numbers on Monday Sept. 23. We will see record sales, but no one will know the mix of 4S, 5C, and 5S because Apple won't break out sales by model. (I believe the iPad and iPad mini are not broken out either.) Over 40% of iPhone sales were the 4 and 4S this past model year. Looks like quite a few people are looking at the $100. Further, with the pricing plans being what they are, many can get the 5C for $79 or less.

post #162 of 222

The supply constaints of the 5S are the only real concern here. It will be the more popular phone in most markets, especially the US.

 

However with limited supply, Apple seems to want the 5C to pick up the slack and frankly a lot of people will rather wait. 

 

Unfortunately depending on the launch stock of the 5S and how quickly they ramp up production, this could crimp sales of the iPhone in the upcoming quarter. For sure supply will catch up as I'm sure Cook and team are throwing everything they need to alleviate it, and most of the sales will be recaptured, but some sales will be lost. Supply constraints in whatever way you slice it are never positive factors. 

post #163 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Well they couldn't have announced pre orders of the 5S because there are no preorders in China yet. I think it was a mistake for Apple to announce preorders for one phone but not the other. Either do them both or do neither.
Yes it gas been problematic as it has brought all kinds of speculation due to no preorder numbers released.
But it is a short lived problem ...come next week it will be a none issue with both models available for purchase.

I also believe management at apple is not stupid. They clearly knew the implications if such decision . Wonder what kind of info they got out of this split pre release?
post #164 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

I just think this is bad management by Cook. Again. He seems to lack the ability to put fires under people's asses. If the 5C isn't selling the 5S may not sell. My feeling is people who can afford a 5C can afford a 5S. So they wait.

They wait.

 

I think the 5S will sell by the boatload but the 5C, not so much.

 

Since Apple doesn't break down the numbers in the quarterly reports it will be difficult to judge how well the 5C is selling compared to previous model sales in other years.

 

As others have said, it seems that Apple was hoping to pick up a few extra sales in the second tier area by bringing out a pimped out new phone rather than sticking with the 5... but we'll never know if that happened unless Apple breaks down the numbers.

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post #165 of 222
I have a message for all Apple investors: I am an Apple investor. I love Apple. I believe in Apple. If you don't, if you doubt Apple on a daily, no, make that an hourly basis, fine. No worries. Please sell all of your stock. Now! All of it. Every single certificate. Get out of Apple and go invest in some other company that you really do believe in. Then stop bringing my stock down! If you believe in Apple, I'm with you. I salute you. If you don't, if you're some Microsoft lover, or Samsung fan, or troll, or idiotic hedge fund moron trying to play srtock rollercoaster with one of the world's greatest and most innovative companies, then please SELL YOUR APPLE STOCK NOW AND LEAVE THE REST OF US ALONE!

Thanks for listening.

mfstout
post #166 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Difference is the 4 and 4S weren't being advertised as new phones. If Apple had priced the 5C at $400 or even $450 off contract they could probably still make a decent margin and expand to a wider audience. The high end of the market probably isn't interested in a colored plastic phone anyway, Even John Gruber, who wasn't expecting a cheap phone, didnt expect Apple to price it at $550. It pisses me off because I don't want to see people buy a Moto X or Lumia whatever. I want to see them buy an iPhone. Apple could have offered the 5C at a cheaper price without getting into a race to the bottom.

 

+1.

post #167 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post

Yes it gas been problematic as it has brought all kinds of speculation due to no preorder numbers released.
But it is a short lived problem ...come next week it will be a none issue with both models available for purchase.

I also believe management at apple is not stupid. They clearly knew the implications if such decision . Wonder what kind of info they got out of this split pre release?

It might be temporary but even if Apple announces a shitload of iPhones sold next Monday the stock is not coming back $55. I'm hearing rumors that another product keynote is coming second week of October. I hope so.
post #168 of 222

..and then we will find out initial iPhone 5C sales have smashed all previous records. 

 

**** these moronic, concern-trolling investors. 

post #169 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Difference is the 4 and 4S weren't being advertised as new phones. If Apple had priced the 5C at $400 or even $450 off contract they could probably still make a decent margin and expand to a wider audience. The high end of the market probably isn't interested in a colored plastic phone anyway, Even John Gruber, who wasn't expecting a cheap phone, didnt expect Apple to price it at $550. It pisses me off because I don't want to see people buy a Moto X or Lumia whatever. I want to see them buy an iPhone. Apple could have offered the 5C at a cheaper price without getting into a race to the bottom.

 

The iPhone5 was selling for $650 last week. Do you really believe that a plastic case is $250 cheaper to make than a metal one?  That's what are you asking Apple to do.

 

And name me a SINGLE phone that sells for $400 that is even close to the 5C in performance, build quality, OS, customer service, ect?  There is none.  Keep in mind the 5 is faster than the $700 Samsung S4 which has a ton of lag.

post #170 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Difference is the 4 and 4S weren't being advertised as new phones. If Apple had priced the 5C at $400 or even $450 off contract they could probably still make a decent margin and expand to a wider audience. The high end of the market probably isn't interested in a colored plastic phone anyway, Even John Gruber, who wasn't expecting a cheap phone, didnt expect Apple to price it at $550. It pisses me off because I don't want to see people buy a Moto X or Lumia whatever. I want to see them buy an iPhone. Apple could have offered the 5C at a cheaper price without getting into a race to the bottom.

What so less people will buy a new phone over a 1 y.o. Phone? Isn't that what Fandroids say (not saying you're one): Why buy a 1y.o. iPhone when you can get a new Android device.
post #171 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

It might be temporary but even if Apple announces a shitload of iPhones sold next Monday the stock is not coming back $55. I'm hearing rumors that another product keynote is coming second week of October. I hope so.
Not instantly.. But it will move back up and above ....
Well there is still ipads to be announced. And mac pro and hopefully a new suprise!
post #172 of 222
Looks like all sim-free versions now shipping on the 25th in the US, and a few other versions too:

http://apple-incorporated.blogspot.com/2013/09/iphone-5c-starts-to-see-more-sell-outs.html
post #173 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

If Apple feels like doing so, otherwise we won't know that. I mean, they aren't forced to do so.

I honestly believe that they laugh a lot about the falling stock price and that the more it falls, the better they feel about it because of their buyback program. They were buying 100$ bills with 80$. Now, they are buying those with 50$.

Sooner or later, the market will wake up, look at the current situation (apple being the only one innovating since 98, looking at the competitors P/E and situation, the cash reserve, Apple dominating profits on every area and most of the competition going through bad times, etc) and the stock will skyrocket to close half of what it should be (higher P/E than Google and Microsoft combined, since Apple is worth much more than both together).

I fully expect the sales numbers will take care of the stock. I hadn't considered the obvious benefit to the buy back program. Good insight.
post #174 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

The iPhone5 was selling for $650 last week. Do you really believe that a plastic case is $250 cheaper to make than a metal one?  That's what are you asking Apple to do.

 

Much talk about  iPhone 5C having a plastic case. Fact is - iPhone 5C's case is part plastic, part metal, just like iPhone 5.

post #175 of 222

I see massive sales the next 2 Quarters.  People are underestimating the power of the 12-17 year old female market.  They will buy a TON of 5C's.

post #176 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

I see massive sales the next 2 Quarters.  People are underestimating the power of the 12-17 year old female market.  They will buy a TON of 5C's.
Yes.. And even younger children for christmas gifts.
post #177 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post


Yes.. And even younger children for christmas gifts.

 

Great point.  A big key to Apple's success with the ipod was capturing the young demo.  See the same thing here.  Plus having a 'small' size is actually an advantage for 10-17 girls.  Who wants to hold a HUGE phone at that age?

post #178 of 222
Well, if the preorders were over 2 million for 24 hours, Apple would have announced it. If they don't have some sort of announcement for the first weekend, then they really have issues with this rollout.
post #179 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post

Much talk about  iPhone 5C having a plastic case. Fact is - iPhone 5C's case is part plastic, part metal, just like iPhone 5.
What part of iPhone 5 is plastic?
post #180 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

The iPhone5 was selling for $650 last week. Do you really believe that a plastic case is $250 cheaper to make than a metal one?  That's what are you asking Apple to do.

And name me a SINGLE phone that sells for $400 that is even close to the 5C in performance, build quality, OS, customer service, ect?  There is none.  Keep in mind the 5 is faster than the $700 Samsung S4 which has a ton of lag.
I don't know if its that much cheaper to go plastic and maybe the way Apple has built this phone it's not that much cheaper. But public perception is that something plastic should be cheaper. Regardless I think there is a whole swath of people Apple is not catering to by pricing at the upper range of the middle. Maybe at one point they could do that because other phones sucked so bad but that's not the case anymore. I'd rather see someone buy an iPhone than a Moto X or Nexus. But for people who are price conscious those phones might be good enough. Does Apple really want to give those people away to Android?
post #181 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

The iPhone5 was selling for $650 last week. Do you really believe that a plastic case is $250 cheaper to make than a metal one?  That's what are you asking Apple to do.

 

 

Do you really believe it costs $650 to make an iPhone5. The BOM is around $200 or less.  I think what people are asking for is  apple to trade profit margin for market share. Not saying I agree with it but it's got nothing to do with a plastic case being $250 cheaper to make.

post #182 of 222
The great news about the lack of facts is that analysts and wall st hacks will amuse themselves with what fiction is already bouncing around inside their head.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #183 of 222
I don't think the market for the 5C would be preorders, more like in store.
post #184 of 222

Wow is wallstreet  that insecure?  What a bunch of foolish nervous nellies.  Seriously!  No wonder the stock market sucks so bad.  Like was said in other posts Apple will most likely announce both after the 5s opening weekend.  What a bunch of children.

post #185 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Connie View Post
 

I hope everything is ok at Apple headquarters, as the lack of an announcement really is really something to worry about for our Apple fans. 

Get a grip.  This is nothing to worry about. lol.  You sound like wallstreet scared of there own shadow.

post #186 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post
 

 

It appears to me that Wall Street suffers from cognitive dissonance when it comes to Apple. They wanted a cheap iPhone, but if they actually got a cheap iPhone they would instantly switch gears to fears about declining margins. 

My sentiments exactly.  If like you said they sold cheap phones there margins would suffer and wall street would get all twisted in a knot about it as well.

post #187 of 222

 

Problem is with that is that Apple at the time was only selling one new model phone.  4s one year and the 5.  This year there selling two.

so I would expect that the announcement will come next week after the 5s sales numbers from the first weekend come in, they will probably mention the 5c too at that time.
post #188 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


I don't know if its that much cheaper to go plastic and maybe the way Apple has built this phone it's not that much cheaper. But public perception is that something plastic should be cheaper. Regardless I think there is a whole swath of people Apple is not catering to by pricing at the upper range of the middle. Maybe at one point they could do that because other phones sucked so bad but that's not the case anymore. I'd rather see someone buy an iPhone than a Moto X or Nexus. But for people who are price conscious those phones might be good enough. Does Apple really want to give those people away to Android?

 

Good post.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Curtis Hannah View Post

I don't think the market for the 5C would be preorders, more like in store.

 

People probably want to see it and feel it first in person before buying it as well. Its really hard to gauge what the colors really look like, as well as if the plastic looks/feels nice or not.

post #189 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

The iPhone5 was selling for $650 last week. Do you really believe that a plastic case is $250 cheaper to make than a metal one?  That's what are you asking Apple to do.

 

One could also ask is the 4S all of the sudden $100 cheaper to make this week than last week?

 
Apple has already been sacrificing margins on their lower end phones. Honestly I would think the 4S would be more expensive for Apple to produce than the 5C. Likely the only reason they kept the 5C's price artificially high was to help prop up 5S sales.
 
Meanwhile the 5C doesn't seem to be selling at any record pace. With preorders in China this year as well as DoCoMo and T-Mobile one would think the 5C could at least sell significantly enough for an honorable mention from Apple?
 
If it were cheaper (and it easily could have been) I think we would have seen blow out preorders globally for the device over the past weekend.
post #190 of 222
Good lord! The relevant,comparable sales figure for the last 3 years will need to include the iPhone 5S, which doesn't go on sale until Friday... Let's all relax a bit...

What is more interesting is that Apple is starting pre-orders AND retail availability for the 5S on the same day... That's new... Tim Cook has spoken about driving more traffic and sales into the stores - I think they've discovered that flagship phone pre-sales last year had the effect of reducing store traffic... An interesting experiment this year, we'll see if there is more action in the retail stores as a result... Some folks (myself included) will want to check out the 5S in person before ordering online...
post #191 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by patpatpat View Post
 

Do you really believe it costs $650 to make an iPhone5. The BOM is around $200 or less.  I think what people are asking for is  apple to trade profit margin for market share. Not saying I agree with it but it's got nothing to do with a plastic case being $250 cheaper to make.

 

Thanks for bringing some reason into this discussion. Apple can sell the C for $450 and still make a HUGE profit.

 
I don't get why if they were willing to take such a chance with the iPad on price why not the iPhone. Apple is in a position to get BOTH huge marketshare and profits. 
post #192 of 222
Who is to say Apple will not lower the price of iPhone 5c in a few months? I recall Apple dropping the price of the first generation iPhone a few months after it launched in 2007 by a few hundred dollars. Apple has built in a big enough margin in the iPhone 5c that it can find the sweet spot at which they can maximize the profit. But they have to start with a higher price to gauge the demand at the introduction price point.
Edited by sirozha - 9/16/13 at 6:24pm
post #193 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post
 

The 5c is the old 5 in a new skin.  Apple wont release numbers on old iphones.  People need to wait next monday, if nothing, then they can worry.

 

Disclosure:  Sold my stocks at $502 at iphone event.  Bought back a little at $470 and more at $455.  I am short 2 $450 puts that expires on sept 27th.

 

Sure, I believe you, even though I normally think that anybody who posts their stock trades (in detail especially) on AI doesn't own any. Guess I will just block you and avoid all your posts

Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.

"A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools."
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Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.

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post #194 of 222

The price for the iPhone 5c will go lower.

 

It will either happen in the coming months, IF demand is soft.  OR it will happen once the iPhone 6 comes out with its larger screen. 

 

It will happen.  But it's smart for Apple not to start out with a lower price.

 

Why?  Because you can always lower the price.  What you can't do is raise it.

 

This way Apple can see what the demand is.

 

And I predict, in my personal opinion, that the demand for the 5c is going to be huge.

 

But then again, don't just take my word for it:

 

http://www.shinyshiny.tv/2013/09/huge_uk_demand.html

post #195 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by sirozha View Post

Who is to say Apple will not lower the price of iPhone 5c in a few months? I recall Apple dropping the price of the first generation iPhone a few months after it launched in 2007 by a few hundred dollars. Apple has built in a big enough margin in the iPhone 5c that it can find the sweet spot at which they can maximize the profit. But they have to start with a higher price to gauge the demand at the introduction price point.

I think a lot of buyers may have the same expectations and are holding off purchasing. Nobody wants to be burned for early adoption, deal with refunds via apple store gift card.
post #196 of 222
The only number that matters is how many iPhones were sold this coming weekend. Counting Internet preorders of one particular model doesn't mean very much.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #197 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by sirozha View Post

Who is to say Apple will not lower the price of iPhone 5c in a few months? I recall Apple dropping the price of the first generation iPhone a few months after it launched in 2007 by a few hundred dollars. Apple has built in a big enough margine in the iPhone 5c that it can find the sweet spot at which they can maximize the profit. But they have to start with a higher price to gauge the demand at the introduction price point.

 

They may do that but it would probably mean that they would also have to drop the price of the 4s and I'm not sure they would want to do that. They should have just dropped the 4s all together earlier and had 2 phones. Now they're having to play within this model that they painted themselves into.

post #198 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
 

One of the Chinese carriers announced pre-orders of over 100K phones.  That seems pretty bad considering the 5 sold 2 million phones in the first three days it was available in China.  So double 100K because there are two carriers and lets say preorders are at 200K that means between now and next Monday they need to sell 1.8 million phones just to equal the iPhone5.

 

 

 

So enjoy the great products, but the stock is going nowhere.

 Sold and pre-order are two different number. In Apple jargon, any unit ship to the carrier is consider a sales. Any unit ship to Apple store are not considered as sales until a customer pay for the phone. The initial sales number increase inventory build up in any product launch. Pre-order consist of only customer order. And in China, it is all over the place as there is a lot of 3rd party reseller that the pre-order number doesn't get counted.  Apple launch weekend number are 70-80% set as the order from all the carriers in the launch countries were known a lot time ago and they would be counted as part of the initial launch number. 5S/5C units already arrived in places like China. The only variable for initial weekend number is customer sales through Apple stores. The more countries that Apple launch the product, the bigger the initial weekend sales number unless carrier cut their order yoy. And Apple would be able to add more countries to the initial launch date list. The launch day sales number is very much a supply driven number. 

 

 China is already start  pre-ordering today (they have a different reservation system than US or Europe because of the chaotic launch with 4S . They have a lotto like reservation system and no one will wait in line for store purchase) for the Sept 20th purchase and it is doing mighty good. Looks like all the gold and white are sold out in Hong Kong after 3 hours. And it is also gone in most Beijin, Shanghai stores. 

 

5C is going to do better than 4S last year. If nothing else, adding Docomo 61M 3g user to the potential customer pool in a country with 40% penetration rate is pretty good recipe of increase sales. 

post #199 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Connie View Post

I hope everything is ok at Apple headquarters, as the lack of an announcement really is really something to worry about for our Apple fans.

Worry harder.
Apple fans don't worry about FUD.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #200 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by xofruitcake View Post
 

 Sold and pre-order are two different number. In Apple jargon, any unit ship to the carrier is consider a sales. Any unit ship to Apple store are not considered as sales until a customer pay for the phone. The initial sales number increase inventory build up in any product launch. Pre-order consist of only customer order. And in China, it is all over the place as there is a lot of 3rd party reseller that the pre-order number doesn't get counted.  Apple launch weekend number are 70-80% set as the order from all the carriers in the launch countries were known a lot time ago and they would be counted as part of the initial launch number. 5S/5C units already arrived in places like China. The only variable for initial weekend number is customer sales through Apple stores. The more countries that Apple launch the product, the bigger the initial weekend sales number unless carrier cut their order yoy. And Apple would be able to add more countries to the initial launch date list. The launch day sales number is very much a supply driven number. 

 

 China is already start  pre-ordering today (they have a different reservation system than US or Europe because of the chaotic launch with 4S . They have a lotto like reservation system and no one will wait in line for store purchase) for the Sept 20th purchase and it is doing mighty good. Looks like all the gold and white are sold out in Hong Kong after 3 hours. And it is also gone in most Beijin, Shanghai stores. 

 

5C is going to do better than 4S last year. If nothing else, adding Docomo 61M 3g user to the potential customer pool in a country with 40% penetration rate is pretty good recipe of increase sales. 

 
You realize Docomo is a Japanese carrier right?

Edited by patpatpat - 9/16/13 at 7:34pm
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