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Lack of iPhone 5c presale announcement causes worry among Apple investors - Page 2

post #41 of 222
What's their problem? They don't know how much they are going to sell until the actual release date gets closer.

Apple will probably, just like they've done in the past, announce how many they've shipped or sold in the first weekend after they actually ship the product.
post #42 of 222

I want to see the phones in person before I purchase them. 

post #43 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

If the 5C is not a flagship phone you haven't seen the ones from the competition.

The 5c is basically the 5. Apple put it on preorder to get folks that want the 5 out of lines so stores can focus on the real flagship, the 5S. There will be more questions with the whole touch id etc plus the trade in thing will make many transactions longer so anything they can cut out is good. The touch id etc gives them a reason to want folks to buy in person, so they can make sure it's set up right and folks understand how it works and don't crowd the Genius Bar with user errors. Thus the 5s doesn't get preorders like the 5c

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post #44 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post

Apple might have partially dealt with that by shipping "sample" phones to all its stores, but it's never done that before, so it may not even have occurred to the decision makers.

Oh it has. They don't do it because it's a security risk.

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post #45 of 222

If Apple is going to be profitable, wouldn't you want to buy, not sell??

 

The stock is trading pretty low at $454...how low do you think it's going to go?

post #46 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScartArt View Post

Yes you can. The Mac mini has good margins which is cheap compared to an iMac. A MacBook was cheap compared to a MBP. The iPod nanos have always had good margins.

Wall Street wasn't looking for a cheap iPhone with low margins. They were looking for a iPhone which would be competitive in the mid-tier smartphone market, providing Apple with growth by entering a new segment.
Why do people assume that any price lower than the one Apple sets = cheap? Isn't there ever a possibility that Apple could get pricing wrong? I mean its not like they haven't lowered prices on products in the past.
post #47 of 222
Apple probably won't release preorder numbers simply because the 5C isn't the flagship model. Why give its competitors info in the mid tier market.
post #48 of 222
No matter how worse it is it would be better than Samsung .
Investors always worry in the sake of worry .
post #49 of 222

Nothing to worry about. They now have two lines of iPhones and they want to announce it together. If they announced how popular or unpopular the 5c is, the 5s launch could be altered so they are hanging in there until the dust settles.

post #50 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by rob53 View Post

It doesn't matter to "investors" what the numbers are anyway. The shorts will say it's not enough to drive down the stock and analysts will always find a way to manipulate. Apple is doomed whether they announce or don't announce. I wish the SEC would announce plans to investigate all these manipulators. That would dive the stock up!

 

You have cause and effect reversed.  People sell a stock short when the general sentiment is that the stock's price will drop.  There's no secret chatroom where the short sellers can flood the message board to spook other investors.  There's also no way that enough people are shorting Apple's stock to drive down the price.  The vast majority of shares are held by institutional investors like pension funds or life insurance companies.  They are the only single entities with enough share holdings to make a difference in the stock price singlehandedly.  Individual investors, even the sleaziest ones, have no power to move the share price.  Hundreds of large individual investors would have to collude, and that isn't happening because those same investors are too busy managing the millions of dollars worth of other securities they own.

post #51 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post


And yet, you can reserve a 5S days in advance for the China launch, so it would seem they feel there's enough stock there, just not the rest of the world.

 

I'm guessing they're doing reservations in China to keep the scalper riots to a minimum.

post #52 of 222

The preorder for China is to avoid riots and scalping that has happened in the past. It's just an automated system to get a number for pickup and to validate the user. Different thing entirely.

post #53 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScartArt View Post

Yes you can. The Mac mini has good margins which is cheap compared to an iMac. A MacBook was cheap compared to a MBP. The iPod nanos have always had good margins.

Wall Street wasn't looking for a cheap iPhone with low margins. They were looking for a iPhone which would be competitive in the mid-tier smartphone market, providing Apple with growth by entering a new segment.

Granted you can make good margins on a cheaper product. However if you make 50% margins on a phone costing £100 to make you have made £50 profit. If you make 50% margins on a phone that cost £300 to make you have made £150 profit. Therefore you would have to sell 3 times the number of the cheaper phone to make the same profit.
post #54 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

You have cause and effect reversed.  People sell a stock short when the general sentiment is that the stock's price will drop.  There's no secret chatroom where the short sellers can flood the message board to spook other investors.  There's also no way that enough people are shorting Apple's stock to drive down the price.  The vast majority of shares are held by institutional investors like pension funds or life insurance companies.  They are the only single entities with enough share holdings to make a difference in the stock price singlehandedly.  Individual investors, even the sleaziest ones, have no power to move the share price.  Hundreds of large individual investors would have to collude, and that isn't happening because those same investors are too busy managing the millions of dollars worth of other securities they own.

Except for one thing. When the shorts get active and spread FUD, it's precisely the institutional investors who sell. So, yes, active short activity DOES drive the price down.

Apple has far too high a percentage of its stock owned by institutions and should be encouraging individual ownership. A 10:1 split would be very helpful right now.
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post #55 of 222

Am I losing my mind?  The 5c is basically 5 with different "clothes."  Why in the world would they sell like a new model?  To me that is a non-story as the issue is the 5S.

 

Frankly I have my doubts about the 5S, but that should be the focus, not how a 1 year old phone being re-released in different colors sells.  As for the 5S, it will simply be impossible to match last years sales of the 5 if they arent taking orders online.   I thought $450-460 would be the short term bottom, but looking more like $400 is going to be here by this time next week when they announce sales of the 5S.

 

Get ready for some more pain in the stock price, going to get ugly.

post #56 of 222
Ummm this is obviously happening since we must now use our full 2yr contracts before we get the best deal, unlike with early iPhones. At least with ATT.
post #57 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crosslad View Post


Granted you can make good margins on a cheaper product. However if you make 50% margins on a phone costing £100 to make you have made £50 profit. If you make 50% margins on a phone that cost £300 to make you have made £150 profit. Therefore you would have to sell 3 times the number of the cheaper phone to make the same profit.

 

Maybe, "if" Apple were just selling phones, but they're not. They also sell applecare, accessories, music, videos, apps, cloud services and other iDevices. If the reduced margin phone is attracting new customers to the ecosystem then given Apples unprecedented customer retention ratio, the loss of profit may not be as obvious.

post #58 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScartArt View Post

for geeks yes but not the general public. I know many people who have moved from one platform to the other. I don't think platform loyalty between iOS and Android is anywhere near as strong as OSX and Windows.

The reasons behind the loyalties are different. With OSX vs Windows it was "My company is standardized on WIndows so I have to get the same for home (said with a whine)."

With iOS vs Android, it's more like Apple haters vs Apple lovers.
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post #59 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

And yet, you can reserve a 5S days in advance for the China launch, so it would seem they feel there's enough stock there, just not the rest of the world.

The China preorder program is meant to deter rioting and scalping which was a problem last year in the queues, resulting in injuries and property damage.

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post #60 of 222

I think I need to just stop reading stock sites for a month or two. It's too stressful being an AAPL shareholder and watching people constantly freak out.

 

Company insane amounts of profit, has more cash than it knows what to do with -- investors ready to jump ship at the slightest rumor.

post #61 of 222

Here we go again…

post #62 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

And yet, you can reserve a 5S days in advance for the China launch, so it would seem they feel there's enough stock there, just not the rest of the world.

The 5s is available to preorder in China to prevent the riots that happened when the 5 was launched.
post #63 of 222
Apple has never announced model specific numbers.. Prelaunch or post lunch or quarterly!

Following the same tradition.. Apple will announce first weekend sales numbers of all the phones combined after the weekend of 20th!
post #64 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post
 

 

You have cause and effect reversed.  People sell a stock short when the general sentiment is that the stock's price will drop.  

That's not the only time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post
 

There's no secret chatroom where the short sellers can flood the message board to spook other investors.  

There is.

post #65 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post

Apple has never announced model specific numbers.. Prelaunch or post lunch or quarterly!
 

 

Yes, they have.

post #66 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post

Apple has never announced model specific numbers.. Prelaunch or post lunch or quarterly!

Following the same tradition.. Apple will announce first weekend sales numbers of all the phones combined after the weekend of 20th!

 

Ya what???

 

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/09/17iPhone-5-Pre-Orders-Top-Two-Million-in-First-24-Hours.html

post #67 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post

Yes, they have.
Nope they have not!
If u disagree.. Please state when and what models and specifics!
post #68 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post


Nope they have not!
If u disagree.. Please state when and what models and specifics!

 

Really?

 

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2011/10/10iPhone-4S-Pre-Orders-Top-One-Million-in-First-24-Hours.html

post #69 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by patpatpat View Post

Maybe, "if" Apple were just selling phones, but they're not. They also sell applecare, accessories, music, videos, apps, cloud services and other iDevices. If the reduced margin phone is attracting new customers to the ecosystem then given Apples unprecedented customer retention ratio, the loss of profit may not be as obvious.

That might be true - if they were making money on the iTunes sales. At one time, they indicated that iTunes was essentially break-even. I suspect that they're making money now due to the greater volume, but it's nowhere near as profitable as the hardware sales. So why would you heavily discount the hardware sales to sell something in much lower volume that's also less profitable?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jakeb View Post

I think I need to just stop reading stock sites for a month or two. It's too stressful being an AAPL shareholder and watching people constantly freak out.

Company insane amounts of profit, has more cash than it knows what to do with -- investors ready to jump ship at the slightest rumor.

You forgot 'buying back 15% of its stock".
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post #70 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
 

Am I losing my mind?  The 5c is basically 5 with different "clothes."  Why in the world would they sell like a new model?  To me that is a non-story as the issue is the 5S.

 

Frankly I have my doubts about the 5S, but that should be the focus, not how a 1 year old phone being re-released in different colors sells.  As for the 5S, it will simply be impossible to match last years sales of the 5 if they arent taking orders online.   I thought $450-460 would be the short term bottom, but looking more like $400 is going to be here by this time next week when they announce sales of the 5S.

 

Get ready for some more pain in the stock price, going to get ugly.

 

The new radio that is compatible over much more networks, including China Mobile, says it's a new phone for a lot of the world. As to "not taking orders online" that's simply a huge error on your part. They ARE going to sell the 5s online, starting September 20th at 12:01 A.M. PST. Just like various stories and Apple's own website has stated for days.

post #71 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


Except for one thing. When the shorts get active and spread FUD, it's precisely the institutional investors who sell. So, yes, active short activity DOES drive the price down.

Apple has far too high a percentage of its stock owned by institutions and should be encouraging individual ownership. A 10:1 split would be very helpful right now.

 

That would have to be a hell of a lot of FUD.  Pension fund managers don't make flighty decisions.  But I do concede that it's entirely possible for enough misinformation to be spread that over time institutional investors sell large positions.

post #72 of 222
I believe the difference here is that this year there is 2 new iphones... The numbers apple announces will not be model specific. It will be a combined number for both.. As it it the case when the report quarterly results!
post #73 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post
 

That's not the only time.

There is.

 

Can you please direct me to this chatroom?  I would love to get in on the action.

post #74 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

You have cause and effect reversed.  People sell a stock short when the general sentiment is that the stock's price will drop.  There's no secret chatroom where the short sellers can flood the message board to spook other investors.  There's also no way that enough people are shorting Apple's stock to drive down the price.  The vast majority of shares are held by institutional investors like pension funds or life insurance companies.  They are the only single entities with enough share holdings to make a difference in the stock price singlehandedly.  Individual investors, even the sleaziest ones, have no power to move the share price.  Hundreds of large individual investors would have to collude, and that isn't happening because those same investors are too busy managing the millions of dollars worth of other securities they own.

Well when most investors listen to these clueless, manipulative analysts... Why people would trust strangers with their financial futures is beyond me.
post #75 of 222



I believe the difference here is that this year there is 2 new iphones... The numbers apple announces will not be model specific. It will be a combined number for both.. As it it the case when the report quarterly results!
post #76 of 222

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post


Nope they have not!
If u disagree.. Please state when and what models and specifics!

 

Uh, what???  What is that link that was posted just above you?

post #77 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post

But this is not the flagship iPhone anyways.

 

It is however, the bellwether iPhone.    and in the stock market 'bellwether >> flagship'

 

the 5s charts the future course, but the 5c is the 'financial workhorse'   (alliteration not intended).   

 

Sales of the 5c, (whether ever reported directly, or how they contribute to 'total iPhone sales' and ASP) for the next quarter will be the primary worry of wall street, because the it's the $100 and $1 phones that sell the most, and in the past drag down the ASP.   If you read between the lines, the 'c'  really is to maintain a reasonable margin, and allow some add'l discounts to the carriers and retailers (add'l discounts = more profits for them, and therefore their shelve space…  if the 5c actually returns more profit than the 4s/5s, it will be front and center in stores).

 

Stock analysts can care less about how the high end units sell… it's ARPU and gross margins, and market share (the latter I agree, not for their reasons, but for the long long term reason of Apple's expansion of 'Halo Profits' from iTMS, Mac Sales, peripheral sales (Apple is selling phone covers, for more than Nokia sells some phones…. Think if BMW sold floor mats for more than price of a Ford Escape….).

 

And I do think that this iteration of 'plastic' phones will be lower margin (slightly) than past Q4/Q1 reports… because they won't have amortized the construction/assembly processes… now next release (which I think is in 6 months, with the A7/M7 chip), that process will be amortized and they introduce a '2014' 5c  (likely with more/different colors), then the '6c' will be a 5s (maybe without the TouchID home button but the camera technology will be there), in parallel with the 6s.

 

My true belief is that Apple will be shipping new product more often in the 'c' line to keep the buzz up and the 'consumer interest fresh'.

 

The 'flagship'  It will always be one step short of Concept Car… The Mac Pro of phones.   Can anyone imagine what the 6 will be like?  Larger screen?  Faster processing/graphics?  more memory?   breakthrough battery life?    We really can't guess, because it's really unimaginable now 

post #78 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post

I believe the difference here is that this year there is 2 new iphones... The numbers apple announces will not be model specific. It will be a combined number for both.. As it it the case when the report quarterly results!

 

We're talking specifically pre-order announcements here. Apple have done it every year for the 4, 4S and 5. This year they didn't which is reason enough for investors to get concerned.

 

There is no preorder for 5s, so there would be no "yearly pre-order" press announcement that included the 5s. Only the 5C is available pre-order and Apple already have those numbers. 

 

Is the 5C a new phone? A lot of posters here say no, it is an old phone with a new case and therefore apple won't release numbers for an old phone. That excuse doesn't fly in my book.

post #79 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by icoco3 View Post



Uh, what???  What is that link that was posted just above you?

Read my response to that post.. A couple posts above !
post #80 of 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post



I believe the difference here is that this year there is 2 new iphones... The numbers apple announces will not be model specific. It will be a combined number for both.. As it it the case when the report quarterly results!

 

You seem to have changed your tune.

Hmmmmmm...
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Hmmmmmm...
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