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Preorder concerns 'overblown' as survey shows strong demand for Apple's iPhone 5s & 5c

post #1 of 38
Thread Starter 
Demand for Apple's upcoming iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c is healthy, a new survey has found, suggesting that investor concerns over device preorders may be unfounded.

Morgan Stanley


The latest AlphaWise data from Morgan Stanley tracking Web search trends found that demand for the iPhone saw a healthy uptick following last week's announcement of the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c. The data tracks key markets where the iPhones are set to launch, including the U.S., U.K., Germany, France, China and Japan.

Analyst Katy Huberty said the survey data suggests Apple may ship 34.5 million iPhone units in the current September quarter, which will conclude less than two weeks after the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c become available.

That would suggest a 15 percent quarter over quarter increase in iPhone shipments for the September frame, which would be in line with the 16 percent quarter over quarter increase Apple saw in the same period in 2012. To Huberty, that represents "healthy demand" for Apple's latest iPhones.

While Apple didn't announce iPhone 5c preorders this year, 2013 also marks the first time that Apple will release two new iPhone models. The iPhone 5s is not available for preorder.Shares of Apple tumbled earlier this week, when Apple declined to announce any presale figures for the iPhone 5c. For the last few years, Apple has touted record preorders for its latest iPhone ? but 2013 marks the first time Apple is releasing two distinct new iPhone models, and preorders are only available for the second-tier iPhone 5c.

As a result, Huberty said investor concern over the lack of an announcement may be "overblown." She noted that Wall Street consensus calls for Apple to have shipped around 31 million iPhones in the September quarter, a figure less than the latest survey data suggests the company will actually ship.

"We don't view preorders in 2013 as comparable to past years given the higher-end iPhone 5s, which is the more likely choice for early adopters, isn't available for pre-order," Huberty wrote in a note to investors.

The multi-colored iPhone 5c remains available in stock for preorder through Apple's online store. But that model has largely the same parts as last year's iPhone 5, and lacks the Touch ID fingerprint scanner found in the new iPhone 5s, making it potentially a less attractive option for early adopters. Some observers, such as Huberty, presume the iPhone 5c will appeal to the type of customers who may not be inclined to preorder the latest smartphones.

Customers will be able to get their hands on both the iPhone 5c and iPhone 5s this Friday, when Apple's retail stores open at 8 a.m. local time. Evidence suggests the iPhone 5s will be in short supply for the launch weekend, potentially due to component constraints.
post #2 of 38
Why is there so much concern over investors? Apple is buying back shares. Investors seem to rely on misguided (or stupid) analysts. The vast majority appear, at least to me, to know something about $$$, but that is all. All dollars and no cents.
post #3 of 38
Good news everyone. We found a survey from an unknown analyst that gives us the results we'd prefer to hear!
post #4 of 38
1) Duh

2) somebody get Morgan Stanley some training on how to create a readable chart.
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post #5 of 38
I do not know what to believe anymore. Everyday there is a new "expert" opinion of what is really happening. Apple should just publish the preorder numbers and get it over with. One thing I know for sure is that the iPhone 5s will be a huge success. I am not so sure about the 5c though.
post #6 of 38
Nothing but market manipulation. I just wish I had cash to invest in some more Apple stock yesterday.
post #7 of 38

So Apple Insider, what are the lines like outside of the Apple Stores a few days before this new release? I think I saw there was one person outside a store in London? More, the same, or not really the crowds they used to draw?

post #8 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by beehunt View Post

So Apple Insider, what are the lines like outside of the Apple Stores a few days before this new release? I think I saw there was one person outside a store in London? More, the same, or not really the crowds they used to draw?

Lines have been "queing up" since last week here in NYC.

Take your 2 posts and go try to find the Samsung Insider.
 
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post #9 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Connie View Post

I do not know what to believe anymore. Everyday there is a new "expert" opinion of what is really happening. Apple should just publish the preorder numbers and get it over with. One thing I know for sure is that the iPhone 5s will be a huge success. I am not so sure about the 5c though.

 

Wait until next Monday. Apple might not breakdown the sales by model but at least it should be a good indication of sales.

 
... or... Apple doesn't release the numbers and the stock will become a good buy at under $400. 

Edited by island hermit - 9/18/13 at 8:08am
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post #10 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Connie View Post

I do not know what to believe anymore. Everyday there is a new "expert" opinion of what is really happening. Apple should just publish the preorder numbers and get it over with. One thing I know for sure is that the iPhone 5s will be a huge success. I am not so sure about the 5c though.
Apple is not going to break out sales by model. Most likely we'll get sales figures next Monday.
post #11 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Urkel View Post

Good news everyone. We found a survey from an unknown analyst that gives us the results we'd prefer to hear!

Difference is they have a survey rather than unsubstantiated guesses.
post #12 of 38

The fewer people buy it, the easier it will be for me to get my hands on one. :)

post #13 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post


Wrong Troll-
Lines have been "queing up" since last week here in NYC.

Take your 2 posts and go try to find the Samsung Insider.

 

Okay you need to settle down, Im generally curious! Usually there are articles about lines forming by now... talk about getting your butt hurt! No Samsung here, just an iPhone 4S, and an iPad, writing this on my MacbookPro.

post #14 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by ealvarez View Post
 

 

Big hairy Troll spotted! : )

 

While hairy, not a troll, generally curious, usually there are articles by now? Only one person camping out at apple store near here, wondering what it is like elsewhere.

post #15 of 38
If Apple made a trillion dollar profit next quarter the headlines would read, "Apple incurs huge tax liability. End of the line for Cook"
post #16 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnkolar View Post

If Apple made a trillion dollar profit next quarter the headlines would read, "Apple incurs huge tax liability. End of the line for Cook"

 

you made me laugh with your first post!... excellent! (and so true...)

From out there on the moon, international politics look so petty. You want to grab a politician by the scruff of the neck and drag him a quarter of a million miles out and say, "Look at that!" -...
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From out there on the moon, international politics look so petty. You want to grab a politician by the scruff of the neck and drag him a quarter of a million miles out and say, "Look at that!" -...
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post #17 of 38

The analysts are a bunch of fickle SOB's.  A year or two ago, they had an "Apple can do no wrong" attitude and some were predicting the stock would go past $1000.  Now they have an "Apple can't do anything right" attitude.  The main complaint is that the 5c is not cheap enough to capture the low end market.  I'll bet you anything that if Apple had made the 5c substantially cheaper, the same analysts would complain that Apple's margins and potential sales of the 5s were being eroded.  They start with a sentiment and build their "analysis" around that sentiment.  I would be more logical to start with an analysis that leads to a sentiment or conclusion. 

post #18 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Apple is not going to break out sales by model. Most likely we'll get sales figures next Monday.
Oh riiiiiiight.

We'll likely never know how well the 5c does.

They've invested in it, so they will get their two years out of it regardless. If it sells poorly this year, it will drop down to the entry level offering next year, likely in fewer color offerings, and the 5S will drop down to the number two phone as usual with the redesigned 6 taking the top spot.

I suppose once it becomes the entry level model, they could keep the design indefinitely, and maybe that's the plan. Possibly even a standard fourth tier LTE phone like the iPhone 4 has become in China?
post #19 of 38
Typical.
post #20 of 38
Overblown my left butt cheek. If Apple can't meet demand, it's going to face the same headache as last winter during the iMac debacle, times a thousand.

What was Cook thinking launching in so many markets at once when stock is so seriously constrained? Whether they eventually buy new phone or not, he's going to tick off a lot of loyal customers, and taking them for granted is NOT how you run a successful business.
post #21 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac_128 View Post

Oh riiiiiiight.

We'll likely never know how well the 5c does.

They've invested in it, so they will get their two years out of it regardless. If it sells poorly this year, it will drop down to the entry level offering next year, likely in fewer color offerings, and the 5S will drop down to the number two phone as usual with the redesigned 6 taking the top spot.

I suppose once it becomes the entry level model, they could keep the design indefinitely, and maybe that's the plan. Possibly even a standard fourth tier LTE phone like the iPhone 4 has become in China?

Really? Don't they drop the flagship to the mid tier and the mid tier to the lower mid tier every year?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

Overblown my left butt cheek. If Apple can't meet demand, it's going to face the same headache as last winter during the iMac debacle, times a thousand.

What was Cook thinking launching in so many markets at once when stock is so seriously constrained? Whether they eventually buy new phone or not, he's going to tick off a lot of loyal customers, and taking them for granted is NOT how you run a successful business.

I forget, what multi billion dollar company do you run?
post #22 of 38

I think demand for the iPhone 5s will be HUGE, but I just don't think demand will be that great for the 5c.  But I'm not an Apple Exec. so what do I know.  That's just my gut feeling.  Just look at the reports from pre-orders in China.  5s will sell out, 5c??? maybe not.  Why?  Well, my gut tells me 2 things:  1. Apple has created a huge surplus of 5c's because it's easier to produce...since it's basically an iPhone 5 with a new case...and 2. the iPhone 5s is much more complex with much more costly parts and untested manuf. process and yields.  However, in my mind, that's why Apple kind of missed the mark.  when you look at availabilities, the 5c is totally open and really the only reports you are seeing are that the *sim-free* models are the only ones selling to a point where delivery is past the initial Sept. 20th date.  I think they (Apple) would have much more success/interest if the 5c was $100 less.  But again, i'm no Apple Exec. with data to back it up.  Just what I'm hearing from people i know and what I read, and my own experiences.  Everyone wants the 5s, and only a few want the 5c.

post #23 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

Overblown my left butt cheek. If Apple can't meet demand, it's going to face the same headache as last winter during the iMac debacle, times a thousand.

What was Cook thinking launching in so many markets at once when stock is so seriously constrained? Whether they eventually buy new phone or not, he's going to tick off a lot of loyal customers, and taking them for granted is NOT how you run a successful business.

 

It is? Or is it just reported as being so?

 

And I'm pretty sure Tim Cook knows how to run a successful company better than you do. It's better to have more initial demand then it is having more initial supply... business 101. You NEVER want to over-produce. You always want to continually increase production to eventually meet demand. 

 

Remember the Palm tablet fire sale? The Windows RT fire sale and now giveaway?

 

The iPhone 5c will lessen the pressure on iPhone 5s demand - that's why there's a "5c" and not last year's "5" sold for less.

Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #24 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by antkm1 View Post

I think demand for the iPhone 5s will be HUGE, but I just don't think demand will be that great for the 5c.  But I'm not an Apple Exec. so what do I know.  That's just my gut feeling.  Just look at the reports from pre-orders in China.  5s will sell out, 5c??? maybe not.  Why?  Well, my gut tells me 2 things:  1. Apple has created a huge surplus of 5c's because it's easier to produce...since it's basically an iPhone 5 with a new case...and 2. the iPhone 5s is much more complex with much more costly parts and untested manuf. process and yields.  However, in my mind, that's why Apple kind of missed the mark.  when you look at availabilities, the 5c is totally open and really the only reports you are seeing are that the *sim-free* models are the only ones selling to a point where delivery is past the initial Sept. 20th date.  I think we'd have a much more success if the 5c was $100 less.  But again, i'm no Apple Exec. with data to back it up.  Just what I'm hearing from people i know and what I read, and my own experiences.  Everyone wants the 5s, and only a few want the 5c.

Techies want the 5S. The average consumer will love the 5C. Techies aren't the average consumer. If they made 5MM 5's last year, I bet they'll have 4-5 MM 5S's and 6-8 MM 5C's available on first weekend. I'm just guessing of course.
post #25 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by antkm1 View Post
 

I think demand for the iPhone 5s will be HUGE, but I just don't think demand will be that great for the 5c.  But I'm not an Apple Exec. so what do I know.  That's just my gut feeling.  Just look at the reports from pre-orders in China.  5s will sell out, 5c??? maybe not.  Why?  Well, my gut tells me 2 things:  1. Apple has created a huge surplus of 5c's because it's easier to produce...since it's basically an iPhone 5 with a new case...and 2. the iPhone 5s is much more complex with much more costly parts and untested manuf. process and yields.  However, in my mind, that's why Apple kind of missed the mark.  when you look at availabilities, the 5c is totally open and really the only reports you are seeing are that the *sim-free* models are the only ones selling to a point where delivery is past the initial Sept. 20th date.  I think they (Apple) would have much more success/interest if the 5c was $100 less.  But again, i'm no Apple Exec. with data to back it up.  Just what I'm hearing from people i know and what I read, and my own experiences.  Everyone wants the 5s, and only a few want the 5c.

 

Well, it's simple. They were able to build more 5c's. The 5s is extremely complicated to build, just ask the head of Foxconn who said, "The iPhone 5 [design] is the hardest device we've ever had to assemble - severely constraining yields." I doubt that has changed.

 
This explains two things... Why the iPhone 5 is no longer being made (costs and yield) and why they switched to the iPhone 5c; switch all iPhone 5 lines to iPhone 5s and create a new "year old" model that was much easier and less expensive to make.
Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #26 of 38
Anyone remember what Tim cook said (I think it was all things d interview) he said he wish he hadn't rushed the new iMac out last year. And we see what he means by that this year, so far only MacBook Air updated. And iPhone 5c/s. My guess is there aren't too many iPhone 5s around (3-5 million in stock? May be even less) 5c will be plenty probably. I normally avoid the initial rush during launch. And after 4 iPhones , I learn that there might be QC issue during the initial batch. So I just sit and wait.

I think 5c will be a huge success , my guess-it mate it will out sell the entire galaxy S4 in 1,2 month. There is nothing cheap about their unapologetic plastic (anyone bitch about iPhone 3GS being plastic?) so save your breath about dropping another 100 bucks, if those who are so hard up about a hundred buck. Might be better off getting a Nokia. Think about it, you might spent that much drinking coffee in a month ...
post #27 of 38
The analysts are manipulators, fickle bitches, attention seekers, embittered nonmillionaires, and blind sheep.

The major news organizations are even worse because they publish the analysts' spewings as news.

Are there a few very smart, well informed analysts? Sure.

But as a whole the are about as reliable as movie critics and should be similarly ignored.

Look at how Apple was crucified this week. The new phones were declared to be disasters. The supply chain was called grotesquely inadequate. The new products were lambasted as lacking in innovation. The whole ethos of Apple was attacked on hundreds of blogs, in many major newspapers, and on the vast majority of financial sites.

And this I say unto you, bishes. Apple has its sheeet together.

New phones? Huge hit. New iOS? Pop-u-lar. Supply chain? Good shape. New products? The stage is set. 64 bits? You got 'em. Biometrics? It works, duh. New Macs? Comin' right up. New product category? Watch this space.

Bish all you want, bishes. Go bish about Apple on www.bishaboutapple.com.

I'm buying more APPL and I just bought two 5C's for family members.

That Sam has Sung.
post #28 of 38
".... suggesting that investor concerns over device preorders may be unfounded."

That should read "analyst" concerns.
They just grasp at snippets of information and spew out unfounded conclusions.


If a "normal" person did the same type of job that analysts do, they'd get fired.
post #29 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

Overblown my left butt cheek. If Apple can't meet demand, it's going to face the same headache as last winter during the iMac debacle, times a thousand.

What was Cook thinking launching in so many markets at once when stock is so seriously constrained? Whether they eventually buy new phone or not, he's going to tick off a lot of loyal customers, and taking them for granted is NOT how you run a successful business.

I forget, what multi billion dollar company do you run?

Brilliant!
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post #30 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

Bish all you want, bishes. Go bish about Apple on www.bishaboutapple.com.

That would be:
http://www.applebitch.com
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post #31 of 38

Apple USA site is showing all 5C's ship 3-5 business days.  Is it sold out?

post #32 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Techies want the 5S. The average consumer will love the 5C. Techies aren't the average consumer. If they made 5MM 5's last year, I bet they'll have 4-5 MM 5S's and 6-8 MM 5C's available on first weekend. I'm just guessing of course.

 

Indeed. I know someone who bought an iPhone 4 two months ago. A 4! I told them they should have gotten the 4S. Their response? "This does what I need, and it was free." I do wish they had paid the $99 or waited two months and gotten the 4S for free, because I think they would have liked Siri, but it shows that there are people who are satisfied with less than the latest-and-greatest.

 

Me, I'll be getting the 5S. Looking forward to it!

post #33 of 38
Originally Posted by antkm1 View Post
I think demand for the iPhone 5s will be HUGE, but I just don't think demand will be that great for the 5c. But I'm not an Apple Exec. so what do I know.

 

A lot. Because you’re absolutely right, and no one should be expecting it to move the same–or even remotely close–volume.

 

iPhone 5 sold 50% of all iPhones. iPhone 4 and 4S made up the other 50. We can expect the same of iPhone 5S… except analysts will demand of Apple that iPhone 5C sell as much as the 5S because it’s a “new phone”. You watch.

 

If iPhone 5S and iPhone 5C don’t each comprise 50% of all iPhone sales, analysts will herald this as the end of Apple and the stock will plummet. Watch.

 

“Wait… So… iPhone 4S will be…”

 

3%. ;)

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post #34 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

... no one should be expecting it to move the same–or even remotely close–volume.

 

iPhone 5 sold 50% of all iPhones. iPhone 4 and 4S made up the other 50. We can expect the same of iPhone 5S…

 

except analysts will demand of Apple that iPhone 5C sell as much as the 5S because it’s a “new phone”. You watch.

 

 

Well said on all counts. The measure of the 5C's success is how it does in comparison to how the 4 and 4S sold over the past 12 months, not in comparison to the 5.

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post #35 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

A lot. Because you’re absolutely right, and no one should be expecting it to move the same–or even remotely close–volume.

 

iPhone 5 sold 50% of all iPhones. iPhone 4 and 4S made up the other 50. We can expect the same of iPhone 5S… except analysts will demand of Apple that iPhone 5C sell as much as the 5S because it’s a “new phone”. You watch.

 

If iPhone 5S and iPhone 5C don’t each comprise 50% of all iPhone sales, analysts will herald this as the end of Apple and the stock will plummet. Watch.

 

“Wait… So… iPhone 4S will be…”

 

3%. ;)

 

Doesn't seem to be just the analysts expecting a high volume for the 5C. A few people on this forum, one in particular, seems to think the 5C is going to be a blow-out, and the main reason for an increased number of opening weekend sales.

 
I look forward to the actual number next Monday.
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post #36 of 38
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Doesn't seem to be just the analysts expecting a high volume for the 5C. A few people on this forum, one in particular, seems to think the 5C is going to be a blow-out, and the main reason for an increased number of opening weekend sales. I look forward to the actual number next Monday.

 

Let’s assume that since the 5 was 50%, the 4 and 4S were equally 25. I personally think the 5C will do better than 25%, but not by much. This doesn’t come on the wings of “oh, people thought it was going to be cheaper, so they won’t buy it now”, no; people on the street couldn’t care less what analysts lied about because they don’t listen to that. 

 

They see three iPhones in three identical price points to last year except, hey, the middle model comes in cool colors now! I think that will be a slightly greater catalyst for sales, is all. 

 

So I believe the 5C will sell better than the 4S did in the middle and I also believe the 5C will sell better than the 5 would have had it kept existing instead.

 

Aside: Some of those morons need to take more than five seconds to think about what they’re saying before they say it, you know? “The iPhone 5 was discontinued because of the low yields and how hard it was to make.” Yeah? So why is the 5S the exact same body? You think Apple doesn’t know how to roughly double production of a product to make way for two models using the same case design? Come on, guys.

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The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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Originally Posted by Marvin

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post #37 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Aside: Some of those morons need to take more than five seconds to think about what they’re saying before they say it, you know? “The iPhone 5 was discontinued because of the low yields and how hard it was to make.” Yeah? So why is the 5S the exact same body? You think Apple doesn’t know how to roughly double production of a product to make way for two models using the same case design? Come on, guys.

 

I actually don't think Cook was going to chance having supply constraints on the 5S by having to also build the 5.

 

As mentioned before... we know directly from the manufacturer's mouth that it's a tough build.

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post #38 of 38
I've got plans to wake up really early to get in line. Haven't done this since Black Friday about 6 years back, and the XBox 360 a couple of years before that.

I think Apple company and stock are treated like no other. The reason seems to be a very hardened group of people who really really hate Apple. Some of those people also work as analysts and commentators, besides the students who are paid by Samsung. Their complaints are puzzling, since in a capitalistic system, they have other options available to them. It's like they want to SAVE the rest of us from something, because they have the TRUTH.

I'm committed to the stock, because the only gamble seems to be overcoming the negativity. I think Apple will be able to do that this year.
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