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Piper Jaffray: Apple will likely sell 5-6M iPhones over launch weekend

post #1 of 26
Thread Starter 
Although Apple has yet to announce preorder numbers for its iPhone 5c, one of two new iPhones being launched on Friday, one analyst believes the company will likely hit 5 to 6 million combined unit sales this weekend.

iPhone Launch


According to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, Apple will sell out of all iPhone 5s handsets produced for the launch window, adding to an expected 3 million iPhone 5c sales over the same three-day period. Compared to last year's iPhone 5 launch weekend, which itself saw record breaking 5 million units sold, the prediction could mean significantly higher numbers contingent on iPhone 5s supply.

Munster based his forecast on iPhone 5 in-store launch sales, which was indicated to have numbered at roughly 3 million. Those units combined with 2 million preorders to reach the 5 million units sold last year.

"Given last year's in-store sales numbers, we are comfortable that Apple could sell 2.5 million iPhone 5S units this launch weekend," Munster said in a report to investors. "Our estimate for the 5C is 3 million units sold during the launch weekend including 1 million online pre-orders and 2 million in stores."

Echoing recent rumors that speculated Apple's decision to nix iPhone 5s preorders was a sign of low inventory, the analyst believes stock will indeed be constrained. Some reports described U.S. inventory as being "grotesquely" low, but no solid metrics were offered.

The final tally is highly speculative given the lack of insight into iPhone 5s inventory.

By region, Munster estimates China, which is for the first time taking part in a worldwide iPhone launch, will take 10 to 15 percent of unit sales.

If Apple does not announce launch weekend sales, something the company has done since the iPhone 3G in 2008, Munster would take it as a sign that sales were below 5 million units. He cautions against buying into the negative press such a scenario will inevitably garner, however, noting iPhone 5s constraints should factor into investors' thinking.

Instead of reading into hard numbers, Munster advises paying attention to demand by observing how fast the 5s sells out. For reference, the iPhone 5 was mostly sold out by Saturday last year.

Apple is slated to start sales of both the iPhone 5s and 5c at its retail stores from 8 a.m. local time.
post #2 of 26
I was never worried about a new iPhone selling.

And it's not just the launch weekend... Apple will sell these puppies for the next week, the next quarter, and the next year!
post #3 of 26
out of a dark place
"Building for the future?! They should be running around reacting to the present!" -John Moltz
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"Building for the future?! They should be running around reacting to the present!" -John Moltz
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post #4 of 26

So when they run out of 5s people will settle for a 5c. By having limited inventory of 5s they assure the successful adoption of the new 5c model. Brilliant! People who really want the 5s will just wait a couple weeks. It is not like they are going to go out and buy a Galaxy. 

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post #5 of 26

I'm thinking they won't have a lot of iPhone 5s inventory so this may keep sales lower than expected. This doesn't even begin to worry me. People will still buy the damn thing. Its not like they're going to go get an Android phone or something just because they can't get the 5s on launch day. 

post #6 of 26
It almost as if people are rooting for Apple to fail and die. What has the company done to merit such hatred, such ill will? What motivates these types to do everything in their power to denigrate one of the most successful companies in American history?
post #7 of 26

Translated: Apple's iPhone 5S to generate record profits causing massive tax liabilities.  Apple is doomed.

post #8 of 26
And when it hits two to three times that world-wide, instead of praise the analysts will talk about the potential that could have been if there were 30-40 million available at launch.
post #9 of 26
If that's "grotesquely" low, hot damn.
post #10 of 26

... and if Apple only sells 4 million on the opening weekend...

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post #11 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post
 

So when they run out of 5s people will settle for a 5c. By having limited inventory of 5s they assure the successful adoption of the new 5c model. Brilliant! People who really want the 5s will just wait a couple weeks. It is not like they are going to go out and buy a Galaxy. 

 

I think we're going to see a lot of that over this weekend.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress0660 View Post
 

I'm thinking they won't have a lot of iPhone 5s inventory so this may keep sales lower than expected. This doesn't even begin to worry me. People will still buy the damn thing. Its not like they're going to go get an Android phone or something just because they can't get the 5s on launch day. 

 

Tim Cook is a master at inventories.

 

I doubt there is less stock of 5Ss than there were of 5s a year ago. I'm assuming just as a year ago there will be 5 million 5Ss ready launch weekend, but demand this year for the 5S being greater will more quickly outstrip supply. That will leave plenty of 5Cs for customers desperate to have the latest iPhone to fight over.

 

I think we could easily see upwards of 8-9 million iPhones sold this weekend (4-5 million 5Ss and 3-4 million 5Cs).

post #12 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post
 

 

I think we're going to see a lot of that over this weekend.

 

 

 

Tim Cook is a master at inventories.

 

I doubt there is less stock of 5Ss than there were of 5s a year ago. I'm assuming just as a year ago there will be 5 million 5Ss ready launch weekend, but demand this year for the 5S being greater will more quickly outstrip supply. That will leave plenty of 5Cs for customers desperate to have the latest iPhone to fight over.

 

I think we could easily see upwards of 8-9 million iPhones sold this weekend (4-5 million 5Ss and 3-4 million 5Cs).

 

He may be a master at inventories, but that doesn't mean there may not be shortages of phones available. Shortages are shortages, something you can't really control at the current time. They can only make so many per day. 

 
He did release the current gen iMac with extremely low inventories, leaving people to wait months for theirs to ship so I wouldn't go to the extreme of him being an absolute master on inventories. I do agree though that he is pretty good at it. Some things are out of your control. 
 
Like I said though, people will still buy this phone eventually if its not on launch day and it will be a big hit during the holidays. 
post #13 of 26
So, an entire fucking article dedicated to an Analyst making a random guess pulled out of his ass about how many iPhones Apple will sell. Awesome.
post #14 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post
 

So when they run out of 5s people will settle for a 5c. By having limited inventory of 5s they assure the successful adoption of the new 5c model. Brilliant! People who really want the 5s will just wait a couple weeks. It is not like they are going to go out and buy a Galaxy. 

 

Well the 5c is now shipping 5-7 business days for all colors on every carrier in every capacity on the Apple Store so I guess they're all out of them too. Yes, people will be pissed and throw a fit, but they'll just wait and buy it anyways when they can. I don't take too much stock in launch day/weekend sales. There's a lot of factors in phone launch numbers. Upgrade contracts comes to mind for one. People may not be in a contract update stage at the moment, but maybe in Oct, or Nov they will. This could especially be true to those who received iPhones for the holidays. 

post #15 of 26
People need to stop listening to these chuckleheads. Guess Guess Guess. That's all they do. And it's to manipulate stock prices. Pure and simple. Is there anyone out there that honestly believed these iPhone 5, 5s, and 5c doom-sayer analysts anyway? I doubt it.
post #16 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

So, an entire fucking article dedicated to an Analyst making a random guess pulled out of his ass about how many iPhones Apple will sell. Awesome.

 

Same analyst predicted 6 - 10 million last year and 5 million sold... the stock dropped 1% on the news.

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post #17 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Same analyst predicted 6 - 10 million last year and 5 million sold... the stock dropped 1% on the news.

Due to only 5 MM available. I'm sure they have more 5C's available.
post #18 of 26

Well I'm an Analyst and my supply side sources confirm for me that sales of the new phones are disastrously pitiful.  Oh wait, no.  Now my sources tell me that the sales are average.  Wait wait.  Now I'm confirming that sales of the new iPhones are very good.  Oh wait wait.  Now I'm confirming that sales are orgasmic, no no, they're uberfab, no no they're Godlike!  It's a miracle!

 

Oh wait, actual sales figures came out, and they're only spectacular, so now I'm downgrading Apple with a SELL recommendation.  No wait.  A HOLD recommendation.  No no I'm quietly BUYING ssssh!

 

GO AWAY ANALYSTS.

post #19 of 26

I am sorry but I had to say this - Munster is a BLOODY BASTARD. He knows nothing and he is a freaking loser trying to save his ass everytime :lol:

 

Ban me if you want but I will tell this whenever I hear Munster @sshole on AI :lol:  Also it is pretty easy to get new IP and new ID so......

post #20 of 26
These analyst are useless. There are too many variables to determine what this weekends sales mean compared to last year. Apple could even limit how many phones they want sold in this quarter to ensure the December quarter is a blow out. May have nothing to do with supply and demand.

Munster's price target has been above $600.00 since the decline a year ago. Wasnt he the same person that said there was a 99% chance that a china mobile deal would be announced last week? Where is the daily news feed on the galaxy s4 lol......since it is the iphone killer

How do we go from....no one wants the iphone, it isn't cool......to apple may sell 6million phones the first weekend. With the endless surveys of apple losing market share, why arent these estimates less than last years sales? Is it odd that the stock dropped $50 off of a rumor about China subidies, but goes up $8.00 because multiple credible sources say the new iphone is amazing and will be a game changer.
post #21 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Landcruiser View Post

People need to stop listening to these chuckleheads. Guess Guess Guess. That's all they do. And it's to manipulate stock prices. Pure and simple. Is there anyone out there that honestly believed these iPhone 5, 5s, and 5c doom-sayer analysts anyway? I doubt it.

Maybe it's not designed for people to listen to:

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/04/84-of-all-stock-trades-are-by-high-frequency-computers-only-16-are-done-by-humans.html
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100666302
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/theres-millions-in-those-microseconds/article4304109/?page=all

The robots can move the markets before the humans finish their first morning blinking and as this forum shows, a lot of them react to what happens with the stock price. If you have enough credible news feeds and can pollute it with whatever you want the markets to do, it doesn't matter what the minority part of the trading world believes in the news, they react to the damage the robots do.
post #22 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Due to only 5 MM available. I'm sure they have more 5C's available.

 

They likely will have more 5C's available this weekend than 5S's. As far as 5C sales this weekend though, two questions come to my mind:

 
How many 5C buyers will actually camp out overnight, or rush out to purchase a 5C over this weekend
 
How many 5S buyers will buy a 5C instead either because they prefer the 5C or are unable to get a 5S
 
Side note: I find it curious Apple seems to have put all of their ad spending into the 5C releasing quite a few promotionals for the device already with none for the 5S.
post #23 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by rumormill View Post

These analyst are useless. There are too many variables to determine what this weekends sales mean compared to last year. Apple could even limit how many phones they want sold in this quarter to ensure the December quarter is a blow out. May have nothing to do with supply and demand.

...

If Apple wanted to save them for the Dec qtr, it would have released them in two weeks rather than Friday.
post #24 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post
 

 

I think we're going to see a lot of that over this weekend.

 

 

 

Tim Cook is a master at inventories.

 

I doubt there is less stock of 5Ss than there were of 5s a year ago. I'm assuming just as a year ago there will be 5 million 5Ss ready launch weekend, but demand this year for the 5S being greater will more quickly outstrip supply. That will leave plenty of 5Cs for customers desperate to have the latest iPhone to fight over.

 

I think we could easily see upwards of 8-9 million iPhones sold this weekend (4-5 million 5Ss and 3-4 million 5Cs).

 

8-9 million iPhones?  Please don't get those jackass analysts started with the big iPhone numbers theory.  They'll see  your figure and then try to stick another million or two on top of that and eventually even if Apple sells 10 million it will be seen as a disappointment and proof that Apple has jumped the shark.  I'm already pissed that only Apple's share price is stuck in the mud while the rest of the stock market soars to the heavens.

post #25 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

8-9 million iPhones?  Please don't get those jackass analysts started with the big iPhone numbers theory.  They'll see  your figure and then try to stick another million or two on top of that and eventually even if Apple sells 10 million it will be seen as a disappointment and proof that Apple has jumped the shark.  I'm already pissed that only Apple's share price is stuck in the mud while the rest of the stock market soars to the heavens.

At least the stock was up on the iOS 7 release yesterday.

That was a HUGE opportunity for a sell off but not even the worst analyst could manipulate the massive positive reaction iOS 7 was getting from MILLIONS of users online.
post #26 of 26

sure, if the 5c/5s first weekend sales don't at least match last year's, that will be a bad sign for real. if your "latest and greatest" drops off from the previous model (all other things being equal) that is not good.

 

plus with two new models this time and an expanded global launch, that alone should boost initial sales.

 

and there is a lot of enthusiasm about the 5s. it's gotten mostly 4/5 star reviews, except for a few nagging nabobs of negativism. Touch ID in particular is shaping up as a "killer feature" that people just have to have - all the reviewers said they really wished they didn't have to go back to the old passcode manual entry after they got used to it. so i'm sure all the other OEM's are in a panic now to rush their own biometric ID feature into production (how fast can Samsung copy it?). 

 

add all that up, and yeah, at least 6 million sales would be expected, and 8 million is possible. so for once i don't think these "analysts" are way off.

 

first reality check will be how long the lines outside Apple stores are tonight compared to last year - the most enthusiastic.

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