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Apple could sell up to 8M iPhone 5s and 5c units over launch weekend, analyst says

post #1 of 34
Thread Starter 
While many market watchers are concerned that Apple has not announced preorder numbers for the iPhone 5c and may face supply constraints with the iPhone 5s, one analyst believes launch weekend sales will blow past last year's record setting iPhone 5 performance.

iphone-5s-camera-20130910.jpg


According to KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple's silence may simply be a strategy to conceal the exact iPhone 5s and 5c sales breakdown from competitors, and does not necessarily mean preorders for the plastic shelled device are weak.

In fact, Kuo said in a note to investors on Wednesday that Apple will likely ship 6 to 8 million new iPhones over the devices' first weekend of sales. By comparison, Apple racked up 5 million sales when the iPhone 5 debuted last year. Earlier in the day, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster forecast 5 to 6 million unit sales, a more conservative number based on the prior model's in-store launch sales.

Kuo believes Apple won't show its hand until the launch weekend is over, combining total iPhone 5s and 5c sales into one number. In 2012, the company used a similar tactic for the fourth-generation iPad and iPad mini.

Due to supply constraints, Kuo sees the iPhone 5s accounting for only 35 to 45 percent of sales, while the iPhone 5c will take the remaining 55 to 65 percent.

While the 5s can be considered Apple's next-generation model with high-end, upgraded components and a price to match, some expected the 5c to fill a lower-end market and were disappointed to see a relatively high price tag. Kuo posits that the iPhone 5c is not positioned to be Apple's "low-price" model, but is instead a life extender for the iPhone 5. He notes that, despite its new functionality, the iPhone 5s retains the same screen size as the iPhone 5c, which for many buyers is a major selling point. If the plastic model was priced too low, it could cannibalize sales of the high-price 5s.

Further, an unreasonably low priced iPhone 5c could limit Apple's pricing model for future products. Kuo points out that Apple can always cut the 5c's cost after initial demand has been satisfied, and may do so next year when the next iPhone is unveiled.

Adding another wrinkle to speculative iPhone demand is the possibility of China Mobile versions of the handsets, a much rumored device that has yet to be officially announced. Kuo believes the world's largest cellular provider will use high-end smartphones like the iPhone 5c to market its upcoming TDD-LTE network. Because service coverage will be limited at launch, the telecom may lean on the 5c to draw in customers, Kuo said.

In any case, Apple's newest iPhones go on sale this Friday at 8 a.m. locally, with an anticipated sales announcement coming next week.
post #2 of 34
The phrase "sells like hotcakes" should be changed to "sells like iPhones."
post #3 of 34
Wait, that's not what Gene said. And we trust Gene, right¿

I get it. Whatever a competitor analyst says, you just contradict, resulting in controversy, and people like that.

So, Kuo, buy or sell?
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post #4 of 34
The well connected analyst with a history of being more right than wrong (51- 49 %, best guess just like him) will not comment until Apple releases early data points.
post #5 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

Wait, that's not what Gene said. And we trust Gene, right¿

I get it. Whatever a competitor analyst says, you just contradict, resulting in controversy, and people like that.

So, Kuo, buy or sell?

 

At least Kuo was spot on with basically all predictions for the iPhone 5c and 5s, Munster has barely be accurate about anything ever related to Apple.  With sales estimates I still think they all just do a little rectal searching.  Time will tell.  With 50 or more "professionals" guessing someone is bound to fall backwards onto the right number.

post #6 of 34

I remember hearing that iWork will be free. Is that free only on iCloud.com or iPad too?

post #7 of 34
I don't know how many iPhones they will sell this weekend, but I wonder if they can deliver what they sell. I bought. 5c last Friday and my order still says "preparing for shipment," not "shipped." I haven't done a preorder like this, is that normal? Do they overnight them? Or is it one of those situations where the shipment arrives before the web site updates? Just curious.
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post #8 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chandra69 View Post

I remember hearing that iWork will be free. Is that free only on iCloud.com or iPad too?
I believe the iPad/iPhone versions of the iWork apps are a free download now, yes.
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NW '98
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post #9 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by nitewing98 View Post

I believe the iPad/iPhone versions of the iWork apps are a free download now, yes.

I think that's true of all new iOS devices, not existing ones. Correct me if I am wrong.
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post #10 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregInPrague View Post

At least Kuo was spot on with basically all predictions for the iPhone 5c and 5s, Munster has barely be accurate about anything ever related to Apple.  With sales estimates I still think they all just do a little rectal searching.  Time will tell.  With 50 or more "professionals" guessing someone is bound to fall backwards onto the right number.

Kuo was freakishly accurate with the 5s, 5c, and 4S. NO ONE here believed his analysis of the 5c replacing the 5 in the lineup and the 4S living on, but lo and behold that's exactly what we saw.

I think Gene speculated that the iPhone 5 would live on and the 5c would replace the 4S?

Either way I think Kuo is on track with his guesstimate of 6-8 million phones for this weekend. Gene's 5-6 million was far too low of a guess considering the seeming pent up demand for new iPhones.
post #11 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler82 View Post

The phrase "sells like hotcakes" should be changed to "sells like iPhones."

Very valid point. Plus other phrases should enter the lexicon, although these are all negative by contrast ... 'Oh you are totally zuned!', 'It's built like an android', 'as reliable as windows' and 'you heap of steaming ballmer' and 'as sincere as a gatorguy'.
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post #12 of 34
Oh great so now we'll start seeing unrealistic predictions that Apple can never meet so come Monday Wall Street can scream that Apple is doomed!

I see on John Gruber's twitter feed that some analytics firm is reporting iOS 7 adoption at 25% already. Impressive if true. It takes Android years to get close to a number like that. 1biggrin.gif
post #13 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by nitewing98 View Post

I don't know how many iPhones they will sell this weekend, but I wonder if they can deliver what they sell. I bought. 5c last Friday and my order still says "preparing for shipment," not "shipped." I haven't done a preorder like this, is that normal? Do they overnight them? Or is it one of those situations where the shipment arrives before the web site updates? Just curious.

 

The status will be updated. In fact, you should get email notification and a UPS or Fedex tracking # when it is shipped.

post #14 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler82 View Post

The phrase "sells like hotcakes" should be changed to "sells like iPhones."

 

Good point. In fact, have hot cakes ever sold even a million over any weekend? When is hot cakes 7.0 coming out?

post #15 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregInPrague View Post

With 50 or more "professionals" guessing someone is bound to fall backwards onto the right number.

LOL!
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

'Oh you are totally zuned!', 'It's built like an android', 'as reliable as windows' and 'you heap of steaming ballmer' and 'as sincere as a gatorguy'.

ROTF!

Also, "let met Cmd-Samsung / Cmd-V that"
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post #16 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Oh great so now we'll start seeing unrealistic predictions that Apple can never meet so come Monday Wall Street can scream that Apple is doomed!
 

Does Wall St. really scream that Apple is doomed? Some analysts are consistently negative. A few have even predicted the demise of either Cook or Apple. But there are also some positive ones, too. Why do you like to exaggerate the situation? Isn't that no better than what the worst analysts do?

post #17 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


I think that's true of all new iOS devices, not existing ones. Correct me if I am wrong.

 

That's right.

post #18 of 34

What's in my hand?

 

 

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post #19 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

What's in my hand?






What's in your hand ... ? Hopefully hard evidence for AAPL to go up ... 1smile.gif
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post #20 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

What's in my hand?

The future!
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post #21 of 34
I feel like some analysts predict doom for Apple before a new product launch to artificially deflate the stock price. Then, that product winds up selling very well (above those analysts predictions?). Stock price goes back up. Profit for those that bought low.

Does it seem shady to anyone else? Is this an actual pattern?

I bought some more shares on Tuesday where I'm hoping to see a jump after this quarter's numbers are released...
post #22 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

What's in your hand ... ? Hopefully hard evidence for AAPL to go up ... 1smile.gif

Notice how the all black screen on the 5c makes it look bigger than the 5s.
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post #23 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post
 

Does Wall St. really scream that Apple is doomed? Some analysts are consistently negative. A few have even predicted the demise of either Cook or Apple. But there are also some positive ones, too. Why do you like to exaggerate the situation? Isn't that no better than what the worst analysts do?

 

The only people I really see saying that Apple is doomed are Apple fans pretending to be 'all the people' that say Apple is doomed.  Wall Street certainly does not think so as they currently have Apple valued as the most valuable American tech company.
 
Analysts job is quite simply to predict the future.  With so many of them, just as one is likely to hit the right ballpark, a good majority of them will be off.
 
So the gap always becomes Apples *actual* performance.
 
If people weight Munsters 5mil opinion they will do a NPV calculation based on 5mil phone sales and their margin and price Apple accordingly.  When Apple *actually* sells 7mil the stock price would jump.
 
If people believe the 8mil forecast and buy accordingly the stock price will be higher... until Apple *only* sells a record 7million phones.  The stock price will drop.
 
Tin foil hatists will then flock here saying "OMG Apple sells record number of phones and their stock price drops!  Market manipulation!"
 
Its kind of fun, really =)
post #24 of 34
@nitewing98


"order still says "preparing for shipment," not "shipped.""

This is pretty typical. If you ordered on the first day and are in the US I would expected the fedex delivery person to show up at some time on Friday.

I have always been amazed at how quickly delivers a product or repairs a product. My experience is that they say 10 day for delivery and you get it in 7 days.

The first batch is due to be in customer's hands on Friday so I think that is what it will be.

Any indicate when you ordered it as to when it would arrive?
post #25 of 34

It's very simple, pundits.

 

Apple never breaks out sales figures to individual models. They are not taking orders for the 5s yet, so they won't release sales figures until then, and it will be a combined total. It's not quite Business 101 (201, maybe) but there's actual competitive reasons for this approach.

post #26 of 34
I'm at an Apple store in Broadway, Sydney there are probably fifty people here, it''s quarter past five, store opens at eight.

It has begun, again
Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
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post #27 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post
 

What's in my hand?

 

 

 

As cute as the 5c is, when turned off it really looks like an iPhone 5 in a blue case. Not a bad thing I suppose, but interesting nonetheless.

post #28 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chandra69 View Post

I remember hearing that iWork will be free. Is that free only on iCloud.com or iPad too?

iWorks will be free on ALL iDevices purchased from the moment of pre-order forward. It is not limited to just the launch or to the current iPads and new iPhones but will apple to the 4s as well. It sounds like a complicated plan to keep existing product from benefiting but may be necessary because of some existing large purchase contracts. However, I see this restriction going away with next month's new product releases.
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post #29 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook View Post

As cute as the 5c is, when turned off it really looks like an iPhone 5 in a blue case. Not a bad thing I suppose, but interesting nonetheless.

A good observation, but who turns their iPhone off??
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post #30 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

I'm at an Apple store in Broadway, Sydney there are probably fifty people here, it''s quarter past five, store opens at eight.

It has begun, again

Glad to hear of the Aussie interest and excitement... The rest of the world is a matter of hours behind you!
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post #31 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by juanm105 View Post

@nitewing98


"order still says "preparing for shipment," not "shipped.""

Apple has to properly prepare for shipment so the FedX driver can punt your new iPhone from his truck to somewhere near your door.
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post #32 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

What's in my hand?






That's pure tech porn...!

Steve Ballmer is having a good laugh right now... He likes his plan to get to double digit market penetration (like say 10%) by 2020. First, BlackBerry needs to sell their share of users to him, then he's going to just kill the market in central Africa by taking commodities in for trade cell phones... like 3 goats or a skinny cow for a subsidized Windows phone.
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post #33 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by juanm105 View Post

@nitewing98


"order still says "preparing for shipment," not "shipped.""

This is pretty typical. If you ordered on the first day and are in the US I would expected the fedex delivery person to show up at some time on Friday.

I have always been amazed at how quickly delivers a product or repairs a product. My experience is that they say 10 day for delivery and you get it in 7 days.

The first batch is due to be in customer's hands on Friday so I think that is what it will be.

Any indicate when you ordered it as to when it would arrive?

It has said 9/20 delivery ever since I ordered it last Friday. And late last night, around 3am, it finally flipped to "shipped." The tracking info says it was shipped on the 17th. It left Louisville, Ky at 12:30 eastern time today, so I figure it will get here late tonight and show up on my doorstep tomorrow as scheduled. I AM SO PSYCHED!
NW '98
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post #34 of 34

Once again we see that the "analysts" don't know dip. 
 

Quote:

Ming-Chi Kuo... said in a note to investors on Wednesday that Apple will likely ship 6 to 8 million new iPhones over the devices' first weekend of sales.

Wrong.  They SOLD over 9 million.  Sold, not "shipped".  And it's still 11% more than you predicted.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/23/apple-announces-sales-of-9-million-iphone-5s-5c-units-in-first-3-days

 

Quote:
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster forecast 5 to 6 million unit sales, a more conservative number based on the prior model's in-store launch sales.

Keep looking backward, Mr. Munster.  You were off by 50%–80%.

 

Quote:
Due to supply constraints, Kuo sees the iPhone 5s accounting for only 35 to 45 percent of sales, while the iPhone 5c will take the remaining 55 to 65 percent.

Wrong again.  The 5s apparently had sales 3 times that of the 5c.  You were off by a huge margin.  Clearly the "lower cost" is NOT a big factor in consumer decisions.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/23/iphone-5s-3-times-more-popular-than-iphone-5c-on-launch-weekend---report

 

Time to stop reporting on these so-called "analysts" because clearly they are UNable to forecast anything with accuracy.  (They're damn good at bringing down shares of AAPL though.)

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