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Analyst: iPhone 5s & 5c lines suggest up to 6M opening weekend sales

post #1 of 46
Thread Starter 
Eager Apple fans have lined up for the newest iPhone in numbers comparable to previous years, leading some analysts to believe that launch weekend sales for the device will be at or above what they were for last year's model.



Looking at lines in New York, Minneapolis, and San Francisco, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster found them about equal to the lines ahead of the iPhone 5's launch. While this year's lines are actually longer ? with more than 1,800 people queueing at the 5th Avenue and Upper West Side Apple Stores ? Munster attributes this in part to the lack of a preorder period for the iPhone 5s.

Given the length of the lines, Munster expressed confidence in Jaffray's previous estimate of between five and six million iPhones sold over the launch weekend for the two devices. The firm's price target for AAPL shares is $640, with a CY14 earnings per share estimate of $45.70.

Munster's estimate is conservative compared to that of KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Kuo said in a note to investors that Apple will likely ship between six and eight million new iPhones over the first weekend of sales.

Long lines at Apple's retail stores and at carriers may allay some investor fears that Apple had underwhelmed consumers in revealing its newest generation of smartphones. Those fears were compounded by Apple declining to announce presale totals for the iPhone 5c when that device became available. Some observers took Apple's silence to indicate soft demand for the polycarbonate-backed 5c. Subsequent surveys, though, found that demand was strong for both the 5c and the 5s, and the queues in front of Apple Stores appear to bear out those results.

post #2 of 46
Meanwhile, in Japan, there's an Android user, on the left in below picture, getting tired of viruses:

"See her this weekend. You hit it off, come Turkey Day, maybe you can stuff her."
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"See her this weekend. You hit it off, come Turkey Day, maybe you can stuff her."
- Roger Sterling
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post #3 of 46
I've never really been excited for an "S" iphone until this one. Would not surprise me if this one sells fast.

Having said that, analysts extrapolating demand from queues seems worse than supply chain leaks.
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post #4 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by dugbug View Post

I've never really been excited for an "S" iphone until this one. Would not surprise me if this one sells fast.

Having said that, analysts extrapolating demand from queues seems worse than supply chain leaks.

 

I hope the analysts aren't extrapolating 5C demand from the length of the queues. It seems like the vast majority of the line-ups are composed of 5S buyers. Hard to tell what the pre-order numbers are for the 5C.


Edited by island hermit - 9/20/13 at 6:55am
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post #5 of 46
Eat crow Peter Misek and your buddy Karen Finerman who "lost confidence in Apple". I'll bet you have egg on your faces from your investors.
post #6 of 46

Never underestimate the power of color.

post #7 of 46
If I'm not mistaken, this is the first time you have been able to get an S-model phone that can be visually distinguished from its predecessor, and it's also the first time they've offered a $100 (subsidized) phone with a brand new exterior. That's not the kind of thing I care about too much, but I think a fair number of people do, so that should help with sales too.
post #8 of 46

When Apple put in a compass to the iPhone a long time ago, for some reason I felt, I urgently needed a compass, as this is a really nice feature/sensor.

Something similar (sensor-wise) never happened for me since then – until now: I have this urgent feeling, I need a fingerprint sensor. Seriously, this is a cool feature, and I feel rather outdated with my old fashioned, restricted, nothing more than a lame push button on my iPhone 5.

In my opinion, Touch ID is still massively underestimated. 

post #9 of 46
Blue 32gb 5C arrives today, Space Gray 5S arrives Oct. 6th. Gonna be a great release for Apple and Apple fans alike.
post #10 of 46
winstein2010 2013/09/20 09:56am
Never underestimate the power of color.

I would say that never underestimate the power of gold.
post #11 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by dugbug View Post

I've never really been excited for an "S" iphone until this one. Would not surprise me if this one sells fast.

Having said that, analysts extrapolating demand from queues seems worse than supply chain leaks.

 

they have years of data, not that big a deal

post #12 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

Meanwhile, in Japan, there's an Android user, on the left in below picture, getting tired of viruses:

 

Viruses?  Really?

post #13 of 46
Yea, I'm thinking 6MM as well. I'm pondering whether to get the 5S now or wait until next year for the 6. I have a 2 y.o. 4S now.
post #14 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I hope the analysts aren't extrapolating 5C demand from the length of the queues. It seems like the vast majority of the line-ups are composed of 5S buyers. Hard to tell what the pre-order numbers are for the 5C.
5C will be huge when the price drops $50-$100.
post #15 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
 

 

they have years of data, not that big a deal

 

Years of data and they still get it wrong.

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post #16 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


5C will be huge when the price drops $50-$100.

 

Drop it $50 and demand will increase.

 
Drop it $100 and demand will outstrip supply.
 
jmho
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post #17 of 46

Golden days, in the sunshine of a happy youth,

Golden days, full of gaiety and full of truth,

In our hearts we remember them all else above.

Golden days, days of youth and love...

******

Not just for Student Princes but for iPhones too....

post #18 of 46
Anybody else getting symptoms of the 'iOpen' disease?

Since installing iOS7 on my devices I've noticed that I've developed an addictive, compulsive behavior that makes me open things in iOS just to watch the animations.
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post #19 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Drop it $50 and demand will increase.
 
Drop it $100 and demand will outstrip supply.
 
jmho
I'd love it if Apple would do it. Really give Samsung, Google and Microsoft something to think about.
post #20 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by elmoofo View Post

Blue 32gb 5C arrives today, Space Gray 5S arrives Oct. 6th. Gonna be a great release for Apple and Apple fans alike.

Yes and no. Both phones are going to sell like crazy. Unfortunately, they're released less than 2 weeks before the end of the quarter - which means that delays in iPhone 5S supplies will have an impact this quarter. It's conceivable that Apple will miss this quarter's numbers from last year.
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Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #21 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTR View Post

Anybody else getting symptoms of the 'iOpen' disease?

Since installing iOS7 on my devices I've noticed that I've developed an addictive, compulsive behavior that makes me open things in iOS just to watch the animations.

Haha me too.

But apparently Miley Cyrus tweeted that she hated the new update so I guess iOS 7 is officially a failure. lol.gif
post #22 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


Yes and no. Both phones are going to sell like crazy. Unfortunately, they're released less than 2 weeks before the end of the quarter - which means that delays in iPhone 5S supplies will have an impact this quarter. It's conceivable that Apple will miss this quarter's numbers from last year.

 

Didn't Apple have supply constraints for the 5 as well?

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post #23 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Haha me too.

But apparently Miley Cyrus tweeted that she hated the new update so I guess iOS 7 is officially a failure. lol.gif

 

Shit like that can have quite an impact among young buyers.

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post #24 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Drop it $50 and demand will increase.
 
Drop it $100 and demand will outstrip supply.
 
jmho

Demand is probably high for the C already. So dropping the price will only hurt Apple.
post #25 of 46

I would think anything less than 6M would be a bit of a let down considering Apple are launching in more countries this year. Hopefully they have stock to actually forfill the lines. In the UK there were reports of stock running out long before the initial line was served.

 

Carriers in the UK are now quoting 4 to 6 weeks lead time for Gold and Silver 5s in all capacities. Not sure too many people will bother ordering and just try and pick one up in store over the next few weeks which may hurt the initial number.

post #26 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Yea, I'm thinking 6MM as well. I'm pondering whether to get the 5S now or wait until next year for the 6. I have a 2 y.o. 4S now.

Sell your 4S now while it still has value.
post #27 of 46
I still don't grasp peoples desire to stand in line for an iPhone. Yeah the original iPhone was maybe worth the wait but it is well past five years now. Of course if people came to their senses and pre ordered the analysts would see a huge failure on Apples part.

Let's face it when Ford released anew pickup people don't line up at the dealership. Same thing for a new Nikon, new TV or even a new pistol.
post #28 of 46
to themacman - unfortunately scumbags like Misek generally hedge their bets regardless of misleading public statements.

Driving down AAPL stock price means all the more profit-taking for the sleaziest denizens of Wall Street.
post #29 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

But apparently Miley .....

Stopped reading right there.

post #30 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

I still don't grasp peoples desire to stand in line for an iPhone. Yeah the original iPhone was maybe worth the wait but it is well past five years now. Of course if people came to their senses and pre ordered the analysts would see a huge failure on Apples part.

Let's face it when Ford released anew pickup people don't line up at the dealership. Same thing for a new Nikon, new TV or even a new pistol.

People wait in line to get movie tickets, concert tickets, sports tickets. It's not about the product but the experience of waiting with like-minded fans. Plus it's bragging rights.
post #31 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Haha me too.

But apparently Miley Cyrus tweeted that she hated the new update so I guess iOS 7 is officially a failure. lol.gif

 

I also heard orders of wrecking balls and sledgehammers were up!

post #32 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

5C will be huge when the price drops $50-$100.
Do you think when next years model comes out that the 5c will drop to fill the "free on contract" spot? Or will it just be fitted with 5s internals and retain its current place in the product lineup? I could even see where next year we end up with an iPhone 6, a 5cs (upgraded 5c), and a 5c as the new lineup.

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post #33 of 46

The 5s' Touch ID is a real "killer feature" that will impact the market strongly - because it is so convenient and consumers are getting more security conscious than ever. just about everyone that tries it wants it.

sales of high end droid phones (not all the cheap stuff) are going to drop significantly immediately, and stay down until the OEM's come up with their own biometric sensors of some kind in new models. and if they don't work as instantly, easily, and reliably as Touch ID, they still won't be enough.

 

(btw, this is the day Blackberry sales died completely. adios!).

post #34 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheUnfetteredMind View Post

I also heard orders of wrecking balls and sledgehammers were up!
But you can do so much more with a variety of power tools!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZcSCT34H84

And just to be fair...
http://youtu.be/l07cMK6iWUk
Edited by diplication - 9/20/13 at 10:31am

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post #35 of 46
I was fortunate enough to pick up a 32GB iPhone 5s in space gray at our local Smalltown USA AT&T Store. When I arrived 5 minutes before opening, there was 21 in line before me. When I moved up to 5th position, the AT&T Rep announced they were out of 16's and only had seven 32's & eight 64's. Their entire store stock of 5s was of space gray, no gold or white/silver on launch day. Lucky for me, they had my first choice available.

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post #36 of 46

So this is the kind of "data" analysts use to make their predictions? :lol:

post #37 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by diplication View Post


Do you think when next years model comes out that the 5c will drop to fill the "free on contract" spot? Or will it just be fitted with 5s internals and retain its current place in the product lineup? I could even see where next year we end up with an iPhone 6, a 5cs (upgraded 5c), and a 5c as the new lineup.

 

I'd rather see a 4.3" iP6, 5S - $99* and 5C - Free*

 
*With contract

 

[... and then just tweak the OS and internals the next year.]

 

[I see that HTC is offering the HTC One mini... with a compact 4.3" screen]


Edited by island hermit - 9/20/13 at 12:18pm
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post #38 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacApfel View Post
 

When Apple put in a compass to the iPhone a long time ago, for some reason I felt, I urgently needed a compass, as this is a really nice feature/sensor.

Something similar (sensor-wise) never happened for me since then – until now: I have this urgent feeling, I need a fingerprint sensor. Seriously, this is a cool feature, and I feel rather outdated with my old fashioned, restricted, nothing more than a lame push button on my iPhone 5.

In my opinion, Touch ID is still massively underestimated. 

 

I think the M7 motion sensor is what's going to be the wow sensor. At least for those that while they don't need an odometer on their bike they'd never ride without one....

 
Granted as e-commerce get's big the Touch ID is going to jump out there.
post #39 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


While this year's lines are actually longer - with more than 1,800 people queueing at the 5th Avenue and Upper West Side Apple Stores - Munster attributes this in part to the lack of a preorder period for the iPhone 5s.

And if Apple had taken pre-orders and sold out in 7 minutes, analysts would have shrieked "Supply problems. Sell! Sell! Sell! Doomed!"

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post #40 of 46
Why are analyst making such a big deal about how many iphones are sold this weekend. It's all controlled by Apple. i am certain that if Tim Cook really wanted to sell 10 million iphones this weekend, it could be done. They are going to pad this quarter with a few million but the majority of sales always get pushed to the holiday quarter. So if Apple only DECIDE to sell 5 Million this weekend they are doomed and we hear the supply restraint bs for a month. The demand is the real story. We see this every year. Apple should be well aware of last years sales so if they come up short this weekend, one would have to question their intent......Theres noway they can/should followup this incredible day of consumer demand with weak numbers on monday!
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