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ABC, WSJ bloggers explain Apple's record iPhone launch numbers are bad news - Page 4

post #121 of 146
It is an absolute shame that these jealous fanboy anti-Apple "reporters" can be considered "professionals" and are given a highly visible media outlet to spread their uneducated drivel to the masses. They don't even know they lack pertinence, as blind as they are by their own self-importance.
post #122 of 146

These guys credibility just went from zero to -100.  Hello?  Lights are on but nobody's home?  And the one idiot still uses a blackberry.

LOL and were taking him seriously?  Blackberry = Dead company walking.

post #123 of 146
For those of you telling DED to stop giving these miscreants "air time" you need to realize that if he does not refute, rebuke, denounce, and trounce their idiocy then the rest of the world will only read/hear their drivel and think it the truth.

At least DED can make them look as stupid as they really are.

OMG! Plato died - the end of all of Greece is nigh! Einstein did not change the world every year - what a useless waste of humanity.

Did we really NEED these types of people and thousands like them (Steve Jobs) to constantly WOW us. I feel ashamed and scared as hell for the current generations of humanity. Gluttony, gluttony, gluttony. A must have new and instant and always on society. At least according to these wastes of DNA.

Another really stupid illustration of my point is why are these same imbeciles not applying the exact same analysis against the entire movie and film industry? After all, Steve/Pixar changed that ball game too am I right? So why are they not crapping on Disney after every movie release because Steve is not there to innovate or change that industry?

Food for thought.
post #124 of 146
Stop listening to "analyst 'experts'", and do your OWN research -- learn to think for yourself and don't blindly trust "authority"! Yes, the late Timothy Leary said something similar. 1wink.gif
post #125 of 146

ah, you should all (not) see Joe Wilcox over at Beta News desperately trying to debunk the 9 million sold fact of the matter. that just means shipped not real sales (he must think it's Samsung)! they're stuffing the channel!! and ... and ... wider distribution. so it's worse than last year!!! i say so!!!!

 

it's sheer panic on the droid/MS side of the fence this week. they know the 5s is going to clean their clock, and they know Touch ID is a "killer" feature they just don't have an answer for.

post #126 of 146

No doubt the 5S is flying off the shelves, but it seems likes there's easily 50,000 of the 5C sitting around in telco inventory in Australia.

 

http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mobiles/australian-telcos-struggle-to-sell-iphone-5c-20130924-2ubc5.html

 

"Only 14 iPhone 5c models had been sold at the seven stores that divulged numbers. Another two stores that didn't divulge figures said the 5c wasn't selling well and that they had "plenty" in stock."

 

That's a cherry picked quote but the general tenor is that the 5C in Australia is not selling at 1:3, 1:4 or perhaps even 1:20 on the 5S.

 

I suspect there's a fair bit of inventory out there.

 

I ordered my 5S the moment it became available and I'm still waiting for shipment notification.

post #127 of 146
Yes Mr Cannold Apple has seen Samsung etc make fun of the lines. But the profit from 9 million iPhones is more than enough to ease "the pain"
post #128 of 146
And I thought these idiots are extinct!
post #129 of 146
This is obviously unneeded article that if there was a flag button, I would flag it as "irreverent" instead seeing twice on home page.
post #130 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by djsherly View Post

No doubt the 5S is flying off the shelves, but it seems likes there's easily 50,000 of the 5C sitting around in telco inventory in Australia.

http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mobiles/australian-telcos-struggle-to-sell-iphone-5c-20130924-2ubc5.html

"Only 14 iPhone 5c models had been sold at the seven stores that divulged numbers. Another two stores that didn't divulge figures said the 5c wasn't selling well and that they had "plenty" in stock."
And now, they're calling the 5c a "Surface style flop". http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/computers/blogs/gadgets-on-the-go/is-the-iphone-5c-apples-surface-rt-flop-20130925-2ud7n.html

OK, it's been less than a week. Shop sales of the 5c are lower than the top line 5s. The 5c was available for preorder a week in advance, which the 5s wasn't. The only way to get a 5s on Friday was to go to a store and buy it. Meanwhile, if, for some reason, you wanted a 5c day and date of release, you preordered it the previous week, and had it delivered.

If I were to pretend to be an analyst of some sort, I'd say that people who buy the iPhone on day and date of release, will tend to go for the top of the line model, not for the "budget" model.

After all, people didn't rush out of their homes to buy the iPhone 4S last year, when it was moved into the same slot that the 5c now occupies.

Can we just wait for the initial orders to all be delivered, or even for the end of the year, before we decide if the 5c is a failure? And until we get some solid numbers before we start making up excuses for our projections being wrong?
post #131 of 146
And down is up and east is west and wet dogs don't smell bad.
post #132 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by mactoid View Post

Let's see...who is selling phones literally as fast as they can make them? (Apple)
Who is laying off 40% of their workforce because no one wants their crappy product? (Blackberry http://www.webpronews.com/blackberry-suffers-1-billion-lost-cuts-40-of-staff-2013-09)

!

I'm love to see his reaction to that question
post #133 of 146
These folks are BOUGHT, PAID FOR AND BRIBED up to the point of being remotely controlled. Their opinion and LACK OF FACTS should be exposed to the public thru ANY mechanism available to unmask trolls.

Good start but we have to do more...
post #134 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by djsherly View Post
 

No doubt the 5S is flying off the shelves, but it seems likes there's easily 50,000 of the 5C sitting around in telco inventory in Australia.

 

http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mobiles/australian-telcos-struggle-to-sell-iphone-5c-20130924-2ubc5.html

 

"Only 14 iPhone 5c models had been sold at the seven stores that divulged numbers. Another two stores that didn't divulge figures said the 5c wasn't selling well and that they had "plenty" in stock."

 

That's a cherry picked quote but the general tenor is that the 5C in Australia is not selling at 1:3, 1:4 or perhaps even 1:20 on the 5S.

 

I suspect there's a fair bit of inventory out there.

 

I ordered my 5S the moment it became available and I'm still waiting for shipment notification.

 

Having a product fly off the shelf faster than Apple can make it is not exactly a good thing either. They can't book revenue from people who really want to buy a product but can't because it's not in stock. 

post #135 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by ybfmiami View Post

Apple simply needs to regain control of it public relations and spend more on advertising.  Right now Samsung dominates the advertising market on TV & internet so my bet is this is why so many people kowtow to everything Samsung. In addition, Samsung pays higher commissions to sales staff in brick &mortar stores.  These people end up pushing Samsung products as better than anything else..  Samsung buys loyalty from the media & sales people.  Perhaps Tim Cook should get off some of that money and do the same.

There is nothing Apple should do. Read the book - Insanily Simple. First hand knowledge how Apple ad works. Steve Jobs really put his DNA into Apple.

Apple don't need to lower themselves to the level of Microsoft or Samsung. Clearly everyone think Apple is all about marketing. Then you can not be more wrong.

I will tell PR to shove it up their @ss any day. They are the most pointless job in the universe.
post #136 of 146
How do these analysts stay employed? They would have roasted Apple whether the iPhone 5c was actually cheap as some Chinese want (they've cheapen their brand, profit margins go downhill) or as it is (too expensive, but it sold anyways). They do this other companies, too. An analyst set a price target $10 under the closing price of the stock (Could be Piper, too) of Edwards Lifesciences! Of course it collapsed the next day (internet watchers) but now it has recovered. IMHO, the worst I saw was an analyst complaining that a company didn't rip off clients and making more money! (FYI, I work within that company.)
post #137 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anome View Post


And now, they're calling the 5c a "Surface style flop". http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/computers/blogs/gadgets-on-the-go/is-the-iphone-5c-apples-surface-rt-flop-20130925-2ud7n.html

OK, it's been less than a week. Shop sales of the 5c are lower than the top line 5s. The 5c was available for preorder a week in advance, which the 5s wasn't. The only way to get a 5s on Friday was to go to a store and buy it. Meanwhile, if, for some reason, you wanted a 5c day and date of release, you preordered it the previous week, and had it delivered.

If I were to pretend to be an analyst of some sort, I'd say that people who buy the iPhone on day and date of release, will tend to go for the top of the line model, not for the "budget" model.

After all, people didn't rush out of their homes to buy the iPhone 4S last year, when it was moved into the same slot that the 5c now occupies.

Can we just wait for the initial orders to all be delivered, or even for the end of the year, before we decide if the 5c is a failure? And until we get some solid numbers before we start making up excuses for our projections being wrong?

 

Don't disagree on any of those points, but the original article I linked suggests that shopfronts are concerned they have a bunch of stock they expected to sell that they haven't moved. This is a new phone after all, even if some might call it a rehash of last year phone in a plastic case. Even the Apple stores have ample stock. Third party vendors don't want to be stuck with inventory.

 

Gene Munster's view that a good number of iPhones sold are sitting in stores' stock rooms seems about right to me.

post #138 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by ybfmiami View Post

Apple simply needs to regain control of it public relations and spend more on advertising.  Right now Samsung dominates the advertising market on TV & internet so my bet is this is why so many people kowtow to everything Samsung. In addition, Samsung pays higher commissions to sales staff in brick &mortar stores.  These people end up pushing Samsung products as better than anything else..  Samsung buys loyalty from the media & sales people.  Perhaps Tim Cook should get off some of that money and do the same.

Are you kidding? Apple markets like no one else. Didn't you read the story about Samsung interviewing Apple line waiters with the question "why?" You think the analysts say what they say because Apple hasn't spent enough money for their message to reach them?

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #139 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by djsherly View Post

Don't disagree on any of those points, but the original article I linked suggests that shopfronts are concerned they have a bunch of stock they expected to sell that they haven't moved. This is a new phone after all, even if some might call it a rehash of last year phone in a plastic case. Even the Apple stores have ample stock. Third party vendors don't want to be stuck with inventory.

Gene Munster's view that a good number of iPhones sold are sitting in stores' stock rooms seems about right to me.

Even if it were true, I can't see the stores complaining. OK, they didn't sell in the first weekend, but they still sold a couple million units according to Munster (who is universally pessimistic about Apple). They'll still be sold within a few days or weeks. Hardly anything to be concerned about.

Furthermore, if they expected more than a couple of million to be sold, it's their own stupid fault. Apple doesn't just ship phones arbitrarily. They ship the number the customer orders. If the customer ordered too many, it's their own choice. Think about it - the 5C is Apple's second tier phone using last year's technology. No one in their right mind would expect it to sell as well as the latest phone. Yet even using Munster's pessimistic estimates, the 5C STILL sold more than almost any other phone ever released to the market (a few iPhones and maybe 2 Galaxy models - all of which used the newest technology being the sole exceptions). Calling this a failure is absurd.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #140 of 146
How many "game changing" products has Microsoft, Google, Samsung or anyone else released in the last few years?

The phablet, glasses and wristwatch markets have not proved to be "game changers" so far.
post #141 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by msimpson View Post

How many "game changing" products has Microsoft, Google, Samsung or anyone else released in the last few years?

Or at any point in time, for that matter. Well, ok, Google perhaps when they started. But when I found out it was based on their PageRank system, I knew it would be crap. And I think it still is!

Samsung, nothing comes to mind.

MS? Well, no products that's for sure. But Bill did have a vision: Windows PC on every desk. Which, at the time, was a game changing idea, gotta give him that.
"See her this weekend. You hit it off, come Turkey Day, maybe you can stuff her."
- Roger Sterling
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"See her this weekend. You hit it off, come Turkey Day, maybe you can stuff her."
- Roger Sterling
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post #142 of 146
Apple this year used the same sales recognition rules it has always used. From an accounting perspective, this year's 9 million is directly comparable to last year's 5 million.

There were differences
Apple's sales recognition rules say they aren't counted as sold until they walk out the door. Supplies to Best Buy and other non-Apple stores (which are counted as sold) are probably just as tight this year as they were last year. That makes the so-called channel fill issue is a wash.

The mix of products sold were underestimated - the higher margin phones - which is very material to profits. Nearly every single analyst including Mr. Munster - missed this.

Last year - they had a pre order period and this year the higher margin 5s did not - a big difference and very material to profits. The demand is very very high for the higher margin product.

Apple has plenty of lee way to adjust pricing - it is very strategic to obtain higher margins and first and second run pass thru at the higher margins - it does not leave money on the table at the higher margin. If they would have come out of the gate with less margins - it would have missed on profits at the higher margin.

Many were modeling way less margins and mix to the lower end - that did not happen. They missed on the higher margin estimates which no one is talking about at all.

This does not include China Mobile - which you can believe is in very deep detail currently.


No one modeled the :

Higher Margin Mix
Non-Revenue Recognition at the Apple Store including Mr. Munsters Comment
Could not Model China Mobile - it has not happened for anyone as of yet

End of the Day: Profits (not just volumes)

Alot of folks are not looking at the big picture of profits and margins.
post #143 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by djsherly View Post



Gene Munster's view that a good number of iPhones sold are sitting in stores' stock rooms seems about right to me.

From anecdotal evidence? Please. Wasn't the link from Australia?
post #144 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

From anecdotal evidence? Please. Wasn't the link from Australia?
It is from Australia, so basing their opinions on what a few retail outlets in Sydney are reporting on the phone to journalists and trying to extrapolate globally is a bit of a stretch.

And while there may be a lot of stock sitting in retail inventory, there's no actual evidence that any of that contributes to the reported 9 million, other than supposition on the part of Munster et al. Historically, Apple have reported only actual sales to end consumers, while Samsung has reported in-channel sales. Apple may have changed their minds about doing that, but it's hard to see why. End-consumer sales would have to have been drastically worse than last year for it to make sense to suddenly try and obscure the numbers in this way.

This is, of course, simply my own supposition based on no information, but unlike a professional analyst, I'm not being paid to say it.
post #145 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


From anecdotal evidence? Please. Wasn't the link from Australia?

 

Yes, the link was from Australia. The same report notes that Apple stores here aren't close to running out of stock of the 5C. Apple aren't going to record sales of the 5Cs in their own stores that they know they haven't sold, but yes, anecdotally, it seems to stand to reason that demand generally, in Australia, is not that hot.

 

Does Apple count shipments to 3rd parties for sale as a sale?

 

As noted in the comment above, there's no evidence that Apple is counting unsold stock as a sale. But on the flip side, the same applies.

 

I guess all I'm saying is there's plenty of 5C stock around. Have Apple overestimated demand?

post #146 of 146
Yes, after years and years of being the ONLY company to publish actual sales numbers, they finally are resorting to channel stuffing just to make it seem like lots of people want to buy the new iPhone.
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