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Gene Munster's iPhone launch estimates off by 5M units for the second year in a row - Page 4

post #121 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


And there's little data saying Apple didn't sell 9 MM. It's also illegalfor a public company to lie. In addition, what's the benefit of lying?

 

Clearly you don't understand what "sell-in" versus "sell-through" means or what channel stuffing is.  No one is accusing Apple of lying.  What Munster is saying is that there are 3.5 million units of the 5c sitting in AT&T, DoCoMo, Bell Canada, Telstra, China Telecom etc. stores that have been sold to them by Apple and rightfully count as sales, but have not been sold to actual customers.

 

If he's right, then Munster made an error in his earlier numbers by assuming that Apple would not stuff the channel with models it can't sell, and his prediction on the 5c being overpriced would bear out.  

post #122 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post

Clearly you don't understand what "sell-in" versus "sell-through" means or what channel stuffing is.  No one is accusing Apple of lying.  What Munster is saying is that there are 3.5 million units of the 5c sitting in AT&T, DoCoMo, Bell Canada, Telstra, China Telecom etc. stores that have been sold to them by Apple and rightfully count as sales, but have not been sold to actual customers.

If he's right, then Munster made an error in his earlier numbers by assuming that Apple would not stuff the channel with models it can't sell, and his prediction on the 5c being overpriced would bear out.  

More importantly, if Munster really believes that, it would have been a trivial matter to walk into a few AT&T, Walmart, etc stores and find out how many iPhones are still on the shelf - and then have some EVIDENCE to back up his claims. Note that he hasn't done that.

Furthermore, note that no one in the industry is complaining about massive numbers of iPhone sitting on their shelves collecting dust.

Finally, note that Apple didn't arbitrarily decide to ship phones to retailers. It's not like Apple stuffed the channel. The iPhone 5C is last year's phone with a new case. I am not the least bit surprised that most people are buying the 5S. If a retailer really expected the 5C to sell as well as the 5S, they deserve to get stuck with excess inventory (which will be sold within a couple of weeks, anyway).

I did some quick checking online. Best Buy has about half of the 5C models available in the store - and none at all online. Target is mostly out of stock in my area. AT&T has most 5C models in stock, but no 5S models.

If 40% of the phones are unsold, wouldn't availability be better than that?

Check your 'facts', Munster, and THEN get back to us.
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post #123 of 128
Piper needs to get these guys a new dart.
post #124 of 128
Originally Posted by ApplesInCider View Post

There is no such label in the Ai iOS app (where I read it) or mobile web app (where I commented on it).

 

 

Okay. So do some research before saying things, then. Since you’re so against people expressing their opinion, either don’t comment when you feel an article expresses an opinion or just assume it’s an editorial. Simple, I’d think.

post #125 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


More importantly, if Munster really believes that, it would have been a trivial matter to walk into a few AT&T, Walmart, etc stores and find out how many iPhones are still on the shelf - and then have some EVIDENCE to back up his claims. Note that he hasn't done that.

Furthermore, note that no one in the industry is complaining about massive numbers of iPhone sitting on their shelves collecting dust.

Finally, note that Apple didn't arbitrarily decide to ship phones to retailers. It's not like Apple stuffed the channel. The iPhone 5C is last year's phone with a new case. I am not the least bit surprised that most people are buying the 5S. If a retailer really expected the 5C to sell as well as the 5S, they deserve to get stuck with excess inventory (which will be sold within a couple of weeks, anyway).

I did some quick checking online. Best Buy has about half of the 5C models available in the store - and none at all online. Target is mostly out of stock in my area. AT&T has most 5C models in stock, but no 5S models.

If 40% of the phones are unsold, wouldn't availability be better than that?

Check your 'facts', Munster, and THEN get back to us.

 

exactly. but not just the third party retail facts. his starting assumption that half of the 9 million iPhones total were 5c's has no basis either, and in fact available evidence shows it's wrong.

 

Apple certainly knows the ratio of last two years' model sales to the current year's. mostly recently the 4 vs. the 4s vs. the 5. they would have used that to project continued 4s and 5c sales.

 

actually AI published a detailed article about this topic just two months ago (i guess not worth remembering by any one here):

 

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/07/22/iphone-5-accounts-for-half-of-apples-smartphone-sales-iphone-4s-takes-30

 

what it shows is a strong 68% majority of sales of the newest model - then the iP 5 - for the quarter following its launch - which being the holiday quarter is also the biggest sales quarter of the year by far, magnifying that impact. which of course makes total sense. it doesn't break out the launch weekend subtotal, but the predominance of the latest-and-greatest new model is undoubtedly even greater at that moment.

 

let's suppose that report was accurate (the data source/methodology is not explained, but hey, AI published it). then 68% of 9 million would translate into 6.1 million iP 5s'. if the other 2.9 million were iP 5c's (who would buy a still-available old 4s on launch weekend? no one) and 40% of those were unsold as of Monday (Munster's other assumption without evidence), that would would result in total real sales of at least 7.85 million iPhones - far more than he admits.

 

and as i noted in a comment above, these totals leave out the huge number of on line orders over the weekend that Apple does not even record as "sales" until the they are delivered! (the one i ordered friday midnight just arrived yesterday).

 

we will get some more info when Apple reports on quarterly results next month. let's wait and see how Munster tries to spin his way out of that.

 

i guess he doesn't read AI.

post #126 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

I much prefer this Munster.

 

Don't we all?

 

But isn't this the same guy we're talking about here?

 

 

;)

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post #127 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTR View Post

Don't we all?

But isn't this the same guy we're talking about here?





1wink.gif

Could be but I want to retract my statement and say that I very much prefer this Munster. lol.gif
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"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #128 of 128
Mr. Digler, your articles are so annoying because you never link to the original source. I wanted to read how Munster explained his justification for being wrong, but the link sent me back to an earlier AI article. That article contained nothing but links to past AI articles.

Next time this happens, I stop bothering with your writing. If you don't trust me with the sources you're basing your analysis on, I don't trust your analysis.
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