Originally Posted by jragosta
More importantly, if Munster really believes that, it would have been a trivial matter to walk into a few AT&T, Walmart, etc stores and find out how many iPhones are still on the shelf - and then have some EVIDENCE to back up his claims. Note that he hasn't done that.
Furthermore, note that no one in the industry is complaining about massive numbers of iPhone sitting on their shelves collecting dust.
Finally, note that Apple didn't arbitrarily decide to ship phones to retailers. It's not like Apple stuffed the channel. The iPhone 5C is last year's phone with a new case. I am not the least bit surprised that most people are buying the 5S. If a retailer really expected the 5C to sell as well as the 5S, they deserve to get stuck with excess inventory (which will be sold within a couple of weeks, anyway).
I did some quick checking online. Best Buy has about half of the 5C models available in the store - and none at all online. Target is mostly out of stock in my area. AT&T has most 5C models in stock, but no 5S models.
If 40% of the phones are unsold, wouldn't availability be better than that?
Check your 'facts', Munster, and THEN get back to us.
exactly. but not just the third party retail facts. his starting assumption that half of the 9 million iPhones total were 5c's has no basis either, and in fact available evidence shows it's wrong.
Apple certainly knows the ratio of last two years' model sales to the current year's. mostly recently the 4 vs. the 4s vs. the 5. they would have used that to project continued 4s and 5c sales.
actually AI published a detailed article about this topic just two months ago (i guess not worth remembering by any one here):
what it shows is a strong 68% majority of sales of the newest model - then the iP 5 - for the quarter following its launch - which being the holiday quarter is also the biggest sales quarter of the year by far, magnifying that impact. which of course makes total sense. it doesn't break out the launch weekend subtotal, but the predominance of the latest-and-greatest new model is undoubtedly even greater at that moment.
let's suppose that report was accurate (the data source/methodology is not explained, but hey, AI published it). then 68% of 9 million would translate into 6.1 million iP 5s'. if the other 2.9 million were iP 5c's (who would buy a still-available old 4s on launch weekend? no one) and 40% of those were unsold as of Monday (Munster's other assumption without evidence), that would would result in total real sales of at least 7.85 million iPhones - far more than he admits.
and as i noted in a comment above, these totals leave out the huge number of on line orders over the weekend that Apple does not even record as "sales" until the they are delivered! (the one i ordered friday midnight just arrived yesterday).
we will get some more info when Apple reports on quarterly results next month. let's wait and see how Munster tries to spin his way out of that.
i guess he doesn't read AI.