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Opening weekend iPhone 5s, 5c sales may have been split 50-50, insider says

post #1 of 111
Thread Starter 

Limited supply of the iPhone 5s during launch weekend may have led to a relatively even split of sales between Apple's new flagship model and the more affordable iPhone 5c, one well-connected analyst has said.

 

iphone-5s-camera-20130910.jpg


Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities said this week that of the 9 million iPhones Apple sold last weekend, he estimates between 3.5 million and 4.5 million were of the high-end iPhone 5s. That means between 4.5 million and 5.5 million would have been of the polycarbonate-backed iPhone 5c.

Apple does not break down sales figures of individual iPhone models, citing competitive reasons. But the company is more forthcoming about smartphone sales than rivals such as Samsung.

Launching two new iPhone models this year, Apple blew away its previous record of 5 million iPhone 5 units sold on that device's opening weekend in 2012.

Kuo's estimates are very different from data published by Localytics on Monday, which claimed that the iPhone 5s was 3.4 times more popular than the iPhone 5c after three days of availability. That firm's data was based on figures from over 20 million unique iPhones tracked through applications and customers.

Kuo specifically mentioned the Localytics data in his research note, and explained that their figures were based on activation, while his own are rooted in production.

"From Apple's viewpoint, production, sell-in, sell-through and activation are different things," he explained. "Since iPhone 5s is in shortage now, numbers of production, sell-in, sell-through and activation should be very close."
 


While the iPhone 5s was constrained at launch — particularly of the new gold model — Kuo said supply is improving. He expects the flagship smartphone to be the "main contributor" to total iPhone shipments in Apple's upcoming holiday quarter.

But he's also bullish on the iPhone 5c, which he admitted beat his expectations for sales while also carrying high margins.

While many expected the iPhone 4S would be discontinued, Kuo was the first to accurately reveal in August that Apple's new handset lineup for the fall of 2013 would be the iPhone 5s, iPhone 5c, and iPhone 4S. Kuo also pegged opening weekend iPhone sales around 8 million, an estimate that proved much closer than other market watchers.

And while most observers expected Apple to price the iPhone 5c aggressively to compete with low-end smartphones in emerging markets like China, Kuo was forecasting a more traditional price for the plastic iPhone back in July, with a range between $450 and $550. In that note, he predicted the iPhone 5c would have "decent profitability, but at the cost of volume."

post #2 of 111

This Kuo guy has been pretty right lately.

 

5C sales will only get stronger by year end.  It will be the #1 Christmas gift for kids. 

post #3 of 111
I believe it. Still waiting to buy a silver and a gold. Apple can't make them fast enough! The 4th quarter report is going to be amazing.

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post #4 of 111
In Germany, the 5s is the shining star
post #5 of 111
Ming-Chi Kuo might be able to predict new products, though he got the new MacBook Pro in June wrong, but is there any previous history to suggest he can predict specific iPhone model opening weekend sales?

If the in-app analytics are anything to go by the 5s sold worldwide at least 3X what the c sold, and I'd believe it. Especially considering the early adopters usually want the most forward looking model. A lot even opt for the 64GB model - something normal people are not known to do. I'd say it's a safe bet to assume the 5c will lag less behind the s as the months roll on. Though, given the slight price difference the s will probably keep in the lead.
Edited by Ireland - 9/26/13 at 5:53am
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #6 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

This Kuo guy has been pretty right lately.

5C sales will only get stronger by year end.  It will be the #1 Christmas gift for kids. 

His most recent prediction on a new thinner Retina MacBook Pro model in June was incorrect. He needs to be held accountable for his misses too:

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/06/02/apple-to-debut-slimmer-retina-macbook-pro-with-upgraded-camera-at-wwdc-analyst-says
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #7 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

This Kuo guy has been pretty right lately.

 

5C sales will only get stronger by year end.  It will be the #1 Christmas gift for kids. 

 

Yeah, I always give my kids 600 euro gifts for christmas.... not... ;)

 

If you do, you got your priorities wrong in my opinion.

post #8 of 111

I had and I still predict 5C sales will be very strong. I am not surprised and this time anal guys may even guess something right. For a change. However, it doesn't releave them from a hook.

post #9 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacHarry de View Post

In Germany, the 5s is the shining star

 

Yep. It shins brightly among flood of Android phones :D

post #10 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by poksi View Post

Yep. It shins brightly among flood of Android phones 1biggrin.gif

Do we have to keep mentioning Android (or Samsung)? Please stop.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #11 of 111

5C Bah! Gold is best my friend!

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post #12 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by mausz View Post

Yeah, I always give my kids 600 euro gifts for christmas.... not... 1wink.gif

If you do, you got your priorities wrong in my opinion.

We are getting our grand kids 5Cs, they already have plans with their parents so we can arrange their upgrades and just pay the minimum cost. You perhaps need to think it through before going down someone's throat with a value judgement.
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post #13 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by poksi View Post

Yep. It shins brightly among flood of Android phones 1biggrin.gif

I'm expecting this Christmas to see a flood of Android phones, those crackers have to have some cheap plastic toys in them after all.
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post #14 of 111

BTW Neil,

Can you provide a link to Kuo's comments?

thx

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post #15 of 111
Stupid Kuo, what about the 3 MM stuffed in inventory!!!! /s
post #16 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by mausz View Post
 

 

Yeah, I always give my kids 600 euro gifts for christmas.... not... ;)

 

If you do, you got your priorities wrong in my opinion.

 

I'm talking from a US perspective.  I think to add a 5C to a family plan is only $99 down and $10 a month per line.  Probably be close to $49 once the holiday deals come rolling.  The 4/4s/5 were cool, but having the same phone as your parents is not so cool.  Having a 5c while the 'grown-ups' have metal phones is what kids want.

post #17 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by poksi View Post
 

I had and I still predict 5C sales will be very strong. I am not surprised and this time anal guys may even guess something right. For a change. However, it doesn't releave them from a hook.

 

What hook?  The estimate bill of goods had the 5C only costing $25 less than the 5S.

 

How on earth can Apple sell a phone that cost only $25 less and sell it for $250 less? Ridiculous.  Bottom line is you have been feed a lie by Wall Street.  Barf it out and come back to reality.

post #18 of 111
>f you do, you got your priorities wrong in my opinion.

Yes, that is your opinion. An iPhone provides a lot of useful features for a teenager. For example, I can find my kids whereabouts using the "find my friends" feature. My kids can use iMessage and of course the phone to keep in touch. Maps helps them navigate to where they need to go and I have greater confidence they won't get lost. The phone is also a camera. And my daughter uses the Internet features to do her homework and keep in touch with her teachers. It is money well spent and not extravagant at all.
post #19 of 111
I don't think they were anywhere near evenly split. I saw people walk when the 5s ran out, rather than get a 5c. A lot of people were even upgrading from the 5, for which a 5c would've been a down grade. There is an audience for the 5c, but it isn't one that would stand in line or make a great effort towards getting the phone on the first roll out. Okay, I'm sure there was a small percentage willing to move to last years model with the price drop, but the vast majority of early adopters are knowledgeable enough about the product line, to know they wanted the 5s. And since there are no 5s' left and there are 5c's, I don't see his conclusion of a 50/50 split as a reasonable one.
post #20 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

Ming-Chi Kuo might be able to predict new products, though he got the new MacBook Pro in June wrong, but is there any previous history to suggest he can predict specific iPhone model opening weekend sales?

If the in-app analytics are anything to go by the 5s sold worldwide at least 3X what the c sold, and I'd believe it. Especially considering the early adopters usually want the most forward looking model. A lot even opt for the 64GB model - something normal people are not known to do. I'd say it's a safe bet to assume the 5c will lag less behind the s as the months roll on. Though, given the slight price difference the s will probably keep in the lead.

I agree. I can't see any way that the 5C outsold the 5S. Several reasons:

1. The 5S is a big step up from the previous version. The 5C is largely last year's phone in a new case. While I don't doubt that a lot of people would want to buy it, I can't imagine that many people rushing out to grab one on opening weekend. People stand in line to buy the latest gadgets. They don't stand in line to buy last year's gadget.

2. The 64 GB model has accounted for 10-25% of sales of previous phones. Lack of a 64 GB 5C puts the 5S at an advantage.

3. The price difference is modest for people in most countries (or buying unsubsidized phones in the US).

Kuo is projecting that 25% more of the 5C were sold? I don't buy it.

However, the wild card is availability. A quick check this morning found few 5S phones in stock anywhere, but most stores had at least a couple of 5C models. So it's possible that the demand for the 5S really was 3 times higher than the 5C, but there just weren't enough to meet the demand. But that doesn't sound right, either. When the iPhone 5 came out, there were endless stories about the shortages, but those stories haven't appeared this time.

In the end, I don't believe Kuo knows, but, then, neither does anyone else outside of Apple.
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post #21 of 111

LOL! If the "sales" were split down the middle then Apple really is stuffing the channel with 5c iPhones.

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post #22 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

Ming-Chi Kuo might be able to predict new products, though he got the new MacBook Pro in June wrong, but is there any previous history to suggest he can predict specific iPhone model opening weekend sales?

If the in-app analytics are anything to go by the 5s sold worldwide at least 3X what the c sold, and I'd believe it. Especially considering the early adopters usually want the most forward looking model. A lot even opt for the 64GB model - something normal people are not known to do. I'd say it's a safe bet to assume the 5c will lag less behind the s as the months roll on. Though, given the slight price difference the s will probably keep in the lead.

 

I think MIng-Chi Kuo's prediction is based on him being tied in to the supply chain. He is likely estimating based on the amount of supplies suppliers have given to Apple. I for one believe his prediction is probably close to being accurate. It is true early adopters are likely opting for the 5S. However, there are plenty of people who were just waiting for a new phone until the new ones were released. It also makes sense that the supply chain for the 5S is constrained, while the 5C is more available.

post #23 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by WisdomSeed View Post

I don't think they were anywhere near evenly split. I saw people walk when the 5s ran out, rather than get a 5c. A lot of people were even upgrading from the 5, for which a 5c would've been a down grade. There is an audience for the 5c, but it isn't one that would stand in line or make a great effort towards getting the phone on the first roll out. Okay, I'm sure there was a small percentage willing to move to last years model with the price drop, but the vast majority of early adopters are knowledgeable enough about the product line, to know they wanted the 5s. And since there are no 5s' left and there are 5c's, I don't see his conclusion of a 50/50 split as a reasonable one.

 

Probably Apple store sold way more 5S than 5C.  But other retailers got small orders of 5S.  Walmart sold a TON of 5C's in my area.  They were out of stock in several colors.  For the non-tech people its a really hot phone.

post #24 of 111
I"m not sure if this is an article about Ming or about Apple
post #25 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by WisdomSeed View Post

I don't think they were anywhere near evenly split. I saw people walk when the 5s ran out, rather than get a 5c. A lot of people were even upgrading from the 5, for which a 5c would've been a down grade. There is an audience for the 5c, but it isn't one that would stand in line or make a great effort towards getting the phone on the first roll out. Okay, I'm sure there was a small percentage willing to move to last years model with the price drop, but the vast majority of early adopters are knowledgeable enough about the product line, to know they wanted the 5s. And since there are no 5s' left and there are 5c's, I don't see his conclusion of a 50/50 split as a reasonable one.

 

Remember you could pre-order the iPhone 5C as well, which is what I did. I think you have to take into account the number of preorders Apple had for the iPhone 5C as well. 

 

And not everyone went to the Apple Store to get a phone. I would think, most did not in fact. They went to places like Target, Walmart, a carrier store, etc. 

post #26 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


His most recent prediction on a new thinner Retina MacBook Pro model in June was incorrect. He needs to be held accountable for his misses too:

 

but then he would just be plain old Analyst, Ming, instead of honourable noted analyst Ming.

post #27 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


I agree. I can't see any way that the 5C outsold the 5S. Several reasons:

1. The 5S is a big step up from the previous version. The 5C is largely last year's phone in a new case. While I don't doubt that a lot of people would want to buy it, I can't imagine that many people rushing out to grab one on opening weekend. People stand in line to buy the latest gadgets. They don't stand in line to buy last year's gadget.

2. The 64 GB model has accounted for 10-25% of sales of previous phones. Lack of a 64 GB 5C puts the 5S at an advantage.

3. The price difference is modest for people in most countries (or buying unsubsidized phones in the US).

Kuo is projecting that 25% more of the 5C were sold? I don't buy it.

However, the wild card is availability. A quick check this morning found few 5S phones in stock anywhere, but most stores had at least a couple of 5C models. So it's possible that the demand for the 5S really was 3 times higher than the 5C, but there just weren't enough to meet the demand. But that doesn't sound right, either. When the iPhone 5 came out, there were endless stories about the shortages, but those stories haven't appeared this time.

In the end, I don't believe Kuo knows, but, then, neither does anyone else outside of Apple.

 

Your caveat at the end could be what makes Kuo right. People may want the 5s in far larger quantities than we able to be sold. The 5C is unconstrained. I too am skeptical though. People usually want the latest and greatest in an evolving tech world. Especially with Touch ID on the new version. 

post #28 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Creid1987 View Post
 

 

Your caveat at the end could be what makes Kuo right. People may want the 5s in far larger quantities than we able to be sold. The 5C is unconstrained. I too am skeptical though. People usually want the latest and greatest in an evolving tech world. Especially with Touch ID on the new version. 

 

You'd be surprised how many people just want an Apple phone.  Proof is how the 4S/4 sold very well during the last quarter.  I think it was close to 40% of phones sold were non iPhone5.

post #29 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post

I think MIng-Chi Kuo's prediction is based on him being tied in to the supply chain. He is likely estimating based on the amount of supplies suppliers have given to Apple. I for one believe his prediction is probably close to being accurate. It is true early adopters are likely opting for the 5S. However, there are plenty of people who were just waiting for a new phone until the new ones were released. It also makes sense that the supply chain for the 5S is constrained, while the 5C is more available.

The problem is that he doesn't know the entire supply chain. At best, he has contact with one piece of it. Cook highlighted the complexity of the supply chain earlier this year.

Simplest example. Let's say that Kuo knows one company which makes 5S cases and one which makes 5C cases. Each company told him that they shipped 4 M cases to Apple. That makes it sound like the two phones sold in similar quantities. But perhaps there are 3 suppliers for 5S cases, but only one for 5C cases. The actual numbers would be quite different than what Kuo projects.

Remember also that it was these supply chain 'sources' who said that the new phones would be severely constrained and that sales would be low because of that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Creid1987 View Post

Your caveat at the end could be what makes Kuo right. People may want the 5s in far larger quantities than we able to be sold. The 5C is unconstrained. I too am skeptical though. People usually want the latest and greatest in an evolving tech world. Especially with Touch ID on the new version. 

If that's the case, then the 5S could have sold 10 M or more on opening weekend. I'm skeptical of that, too.
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post #30 of 111
I have trouble believing it independent web traffic analysis show a lot more 5S than 5C popping up. I guess one could argue that the 5C's aren't be used like the 5S but then I would doubt that, and one says that then one has to consider that all those trillion of Android-based apparently being activated per minute may actually exist. Seems unlikely to me.
post #31 of 111
Apple sold all its 5S's opening weekend. If sales if 9M were split, that would mean Apple initiated sales with only 4.5 M iPhone 5S's available. Do you think Apple would kick off sales of the 5S with fewer on hand than they sold 5's a year ago? I don't.

There's no way Apple had fewer than 5 M 5S's available to sell opening weekend. And probably they had more than that.

Just two cents. 1tongue.gif
post #32 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Probably Apple store sold way more 5S than 5C.  But other retailers got small orders of 5S.  Walmart sold a TON of 5C's in my area.  They were out of stock in several colors.  For the non-tech people its a really hot phone.

I didn't go to the Apple store to purchase my 5s. I went to Target, but their mobile store didn't open until 11. So I noticed the line at the AT&T store, which opened early just to sell the iPhone. They sold the last two 5s about three spots ahead of me. The two people in line in front of me were upgrading from 3Gs. They passed on the 5c's, which were still available (I was kinda surprised by that). So I walked over the the Radio Shack, which opened at 10 (it was about 9) and waited for them to open (all three stores are in the same mall, and there is no Apple store in my part of town). So when Radio Shack opened, I bought my 5s (they had a total of 16, I got the first one, AT&T had 50). While I was in the store, another customer from AT&T, where the 5c was easily available, came in to buy a 5s.

I know there is a audience for the 5c and I am sure that Apple sold a good amount of 5c's over the weekend, but I can't see it being about half of the 9 million sold.
post #33 of 111

My guess?

 

6 Million 5S sold

3 Million 5C

 

500,000 5C at non-Apple stores

6 Millions 5S orders not shipped

1 Million 5C orders not shipped

 

If there were zero supply constraints I'd bet they would have sold over 15 Mil phones.

post #34 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


Do we have to keep mentioning Android (or Samsung)? Please stop.

 

You are right, of course. I should use the usual code names. However, I could't help alluding to ridiculously big market share of crap for a country being relatively rich as Germany. They stand out by amount of crap.

post #35 of 111
I would believe that if people were in the market for the 5c on opening weekend, they would avoid the chaos at the Apple store and go straight to one of their many local retailers first. Especially Walmart who was discounting them at $79 instead of $99. Why stand in line at the Apple store; which is always crowded as it is ?

This theory jives with reports of lines at the Apple store just waiting for 5s and tons of 5c being sold at Walmart. Pretty sure there are a lot more Walmarts, Targets and best buys than there are Apple stores. If most of those are selling 5c over 5s then I can believe the more even split.
Edited by snova - 9/26/13 at 7:38am
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post #36 of 111

I want to know how many 4ssssss were sold.

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post #37 of 111
Ha, and now Gene Munster is out there saying Apple is going to adjust iPhone pricing in emerging markets. Sure that could happen but it seems to be another case of Munster getting something wrong and refusing to admit it.
post #38 of 111
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Opening weekend iPhone 5s, 5c sales may have been split 50-50, insider says

 

SEE. SEE. I TOLD YOU. I TOLD you that they’d demand half and half. And when it comes out that it wasn’t, Apple will have “failed” in making the 5C at all.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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post #39 of 111
Why is it called the 5c?

Isn't it exactly the 5, with minor improvemets, but in a plastic case?

It's priced as the 5 would be priced.

It wouldn't be the first time Apple completely redesigned a case and retained the same product name, even confusingly so -- witness anyone trying to figure out which MacBook they own for support.

The iPhone 5 isn't being sold anywhere else is it?

I just don't get it. It's counter to Apple's usual simplicity of product labeling, and leads to a bunch of unnecessary suffixes. What harm comes from someone just saying they have an "iPhone 5" when referring to the 5c? Aside from the plastic case, it's virtually the exact same phone! And what happens when the iPhone 6 comes out? Will the 5c get bumped down to the "free" model and the 5s get repackaged in the plastic case and rebranded as the 5sc (or 5cs)? Talk about confusing.

Is this a prelude of things to come? Larger screens get a new model number? It's not the way Apple traditionally has done things.
post #40 of 111

When I went to the Apple store to buy my 5s, I asked the sales guy generally about their stock levels.  He said they had 5c's "coming out their ears" and they received "at most 20" gold 5s's.  Based on the activation and sales data I think it's a pretty good bet that virtually all the 5s's reported sold are in or in transit to customer's hands, but that there are a significant number of "sold" 5c's that are still sitting in AT&T, Verizon, etc stores and warehouses.  Nine million sold in a weekend is still an amazing feet even if a million or two of those are 5c's that have been purchased by carriers but not yet by consumers.

 

As a (small time) AAPL shareholder Cook and team seem to be doing a solid job.  Really impressed how well they implemented TouchID.  I do wish they would have hit the $49 on contract / $499 off contract price point on the 5c. Even though it's only $50 there is a big psychological difference between $49 and $99 and by getting below the $500 mark off contract.  I think we may see some unofficial discounts on the 5c in the coming months.

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