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Opening weekend iPhone 5s, 5c sales may have been split 50-50, insider says - Page 3

post #81 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Some people have claimed it would be a blow out hit.

Even you have not shown me any hard figures to show it is selling as well as the 4s did in the same position last year.

The question I have to ask is, "Why did Apple build the 5c instead of just offering us the 5, in keeping with the line-ups from other years?"

I don't think I ever claimed the 5C would be an initial weekend hit. That said, I believe it would do better than the 4S did last year for the Dec quarter. Again I don't think anyone said the 5C would out sell the 5S on the first weekend. (Although I may have when I thought the 5S would have supply issues).

My guess is Apple would like to differentiate the current model with "last year's model." In addition, a plastic case is probably simpler to mass-produce than a metal case.
post #82 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Again I don't think anyone said the 5C would out sell the 5S on the first weekend. (Although I may have when I thought the 5S would have supply issues).
 

Yes, I'd say that most rhetoric here was indeed that 5c would NOT out sell 5s (and by a decent margin) during launch weekend.

post #83 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post
 

- create product differentiation from the 5s (reduces cannibalization and customer confusion)

- better profit margin

- believes that customers prefer a new phone than an old phone

- colors are cool

- plastic: some actually prefer plastic and also it will compete directly with competitors offerings

 

Product differentiation: I like that idea, although it seems to create confusion for next year's line-up... but that could easily be fixed with a 4.3" phone.

 

Better profit margin: I like that idea as well, but the 5c is an unknown. If it doesn't sell as well as the 5 was projected to sell then the margins are still there but the revenue and profit might not be. You also run into problems next year.

 

New phone over old phone: I'm assuming that you mean that Apple is hoping that the 5c will sell better than the 5 in the same spot. If so, then that is my favorite reason. One that deserves careful scrutiny.

 

Colors are cool: Yes, colors are cool but do they sell an iPhone?

 

Plastic: Hmmm... this is my least favorite reason. Do enough people think plastic is better? Does Apple really have to offer a phone of this type to compete with competitors offering? Are the competitors offerings selling?

 

Good bunch of reasons.


Edited by island hermit - 9/26/13 at 11:45am
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post #84 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post
 

Yes, I'd say that most rhetoric here was indeed that 5c would NOT out sell 5s (and by a decent margin) during launch weekend.

 

I don't recall anyone saying that either.

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post #85 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post

Sometimes I wonder if anyone who writes for this publication has a brain.

Let's see if any of the bright readers who can do a bit of math can put this together:

1. This analyst claims that of the 9 million units sold, approximately half were the 5s and half were the 5c.

2. Usage data suggest that approximately 78% of the phones tracked were 5s and 22% were 5c.

3. The analyst mentions that there is a difference between sell-in and sell-through, but this article doesn't try to explain what the significance is or even come close to understanding why this is significant.

4. An Apple bull suggests that the 'real' sales were closer to 5.5 million units.

Moral of the story?

There are a lot of people out there spewing nonsense about subjects that they couldn't possibly have information on.

The only real number we have is that Apple sold 9 M phones over the weekend.

We also have reports that 5S phones are appearing in various usage stats 3 times as often as 5C phones. The data might be correct, but may not be useful - because there's no way to know whether the data is representative of the entire world. Therefore, the data is somewhat questionable.

The rest is simply made up garbage with absolutely no methodology and no reason at all to believe that it is valid. And considering that Munster, in particular, has been so far off on his previous predictions, there's no reason to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

My guess?

6 Million 5S sold
3 Million 5C

500,000 5C at non-Apple stores
6 Millions 5S orders not shipped
1 Million 5C orders not shipped

If there were zero supply constraints I'd bet they would have sold over 15 Mil phones.

I suspect that's not too far off the mark.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac_128 View Post

"C" is for cheap. It was a bad choice, in my opinion. They should have just left it iPhone 5, and marketed it as the same great iPhone with a stylish new look. Plus it deviates from Apple's standard product naming convention.

'C' was never for cheap. It's clearly for color.

As for the rest, please let us know how many multibillion dollar products you've produced and marketed and why your opinion is right while Apple is wrong. They've decided that a new case design was a good idea for some reason - and the results bear that out. I'm guessing that they wanted to differentiate the 'better' phone from the 'best' phone or they wanted to have a phone that appeals to a different audience. Regardless of the reason, though, there's absolutely no reason to believe that you know more about it than Apple.
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post #86 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

Some people have claimed it would be a blow out hit. Compared to that.

 

Even you have not shown me any hard figures to show it is selling as well as the 4s did in the same position last year.

 

The question I have to ask is, "Why did Apple build the 5c instead of just offering us the 5, in keeping with the line-ups from other years?"

 

Did Apple say it was going to be a blow out hit?  Did Apple say they will sell 5 Million 5C's in the first weekend?  No.  It was the stupid analysis who don't know crap who were saying this.  Again, stop listening to the crap they spew.

 

Mr Cook himself said the demand for the 5S and 5C was amazing.  Are you telling me he is lying?  ARE YOU HERMIT! 

 

The reason they did not keep the 5 is obvious:

 

#1 - it would steal sales from the 5S.  It looks almost exactly the same and people would get confused. 

#2 - the 5 is extremely expensive to build.  Even when it was selling for $650 Apple's margins were hurt.  Imagine how bad it would be if they were selling it for $550?

#3 - introduce two new phones for two different markets.  Not everyone wants high tech.  And many kids despise having the exact same phone as their parents

#4 - 5C's can be assembled very fast and can help offset some of the 5S shortages

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post #87 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

Plastic: Hmmm... this is my least favorite reason. Do enough people think plastic is better? Does Apple really have to offer a phone of this type to compete with competitors offering? Are the competitors offerings selling?

 

I wish Apple would have went with aluminum enclosures (ala iPod Touch & Nano) for the 5c especially at the price points they chose.  Perhaps an all aluminum case would cause problems with cellular radio transmission and reception.  Maybe not forever though:

 

http://techcrunch.com/2013/02/12/apples-invisible-microslot-antennas-patent-means-your-next-iphone-could-have-an-all-aluminum-case/

post #88 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

Mr Cook himself said the demand for the 5S and 5C was amazing.  Are you telling me he is lying?  ARE YOU HERMIT! 

 

Cook didn't specifically say the numbers. He also didn't specifically say 5s and 5c. He said new iPhones. Yes, we know the 5s was flying off the shelves, the 5c is still in doubt. There is talk of channel inventory. We don't know specific numbers. Maybe you do, the rest of us don't.

 

What would you like him to say, "The 5s had amazing sales, the 5c... not so much". Even if it was true the shareholders would sue Apple into the pavement.

 

So, I'm saying that I want to see the numbers broken down before I accept it as gospel.

 

Thank you.

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post #89 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

Cook didn't specifically say the numbers. He also didn't specifically say 5s and 5c. He said new iPhones. Yes, we know the 5s was flying off the shelves, the 5c is still in doubt. There is talk of channel inventory. We don't know specific numbers. Maybe you do, the rest of us don't.

 

What would you like him to say, "The 5s had amazing sales, the 5c... not so much". Even if it was true the shareholders would sue Apple into the pavement.

 

So, I'm saying that I want to see the numbers broken down before I accept it as gospel.

 

Thank you.

 

So you are telling me Cook is a liar?

So are you telling me they sold 9 million 5S?

So are you telling me you smarter than Cook and the Apple team in decided what phones should be sold and for how much?

 

Really?

Are you really that lost with reality that you think you are in a better position to make these decisions?

Then some of the smartest tech/marketing guys in the entire world?

 

If so please get out of here and start selling your iHermit phones and make billions. 

 

By the way the CEO of Sprint said the 5C was selling very strong. But does it really matter?  If the 5C was selling much more than the 5S the stupid ass analysis would say 'lower revenue and margin for the cheaper phone'.  Or that the 5S isn't a true flagship. ect.  Some people are never satisfied.

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post #90 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

As for the rest, please let us know how many multibillion dollar products you've produced and marketed and why your opinion is right while Apple is wrong. They've decided that a new case design was a good idea for some reason - and the results bear that out. I'm guessing that they wanted to differentiate the 'better' phone from the 'best' phone or they wanted to have a phone that appeals to a different audience. Regardless of the reason, though, there's absolutely no reason to believe that you know more about it than Apple.

 

C'mon, J! It's his opinion. We all give opinions, including you. If we stopped giving opinions then they might as well close down AI.

 

Everyone is welcome to give his or her opinion.

 

Everyone is welcome to ignore it as well.

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post #91 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

So you are telling me Cook is a liar?

So are you telling me they sold 9 million 5S?

So are you telling me you smarter than Cook and the Apple team in decided what phones should be sold and for how much?

 

Really?

Are you really that lost with reality that you think you are in a better position to make these decisions?

Then some of the smartest tech/marketing guys in the entire world?

 

If so please get out of here and start selling your iHermit phones and make billions. 

 

By the way the CEO of Sprint said the 5C was selling very strong. But does it really matter?  If the 5C was selling much more than the 5S the stupid ass analysis would say 'lower revenue and margin for the cheaper phone'.  Or that the 5S isn't a true flagship. ect.  Some people are never satisfied.

 

So you are saying that you don't have any hard numbers?

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post #92 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

So you are saying that you don't have any hard numbers?

 

Cook said the demand for iPhones were great.

They sold 9 million phones.

They researched the product and market extensively.

These are literally $50,000,000,000 decisions.

 

I'm sorry I'll support Mr Cook on this one instead of a hermit.

 

Asking for hard numbers is silly.  Apple has NEVER given hard numbers in their quarterly financials for a specific iPhone model. NEVER. You are being silly.  Its like saying I think Apple sold 95% iPhone4's last quarter.  And then say there are no hard numbers so I must be right. Whatever.

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post #93 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Cook said the demand for iPhones were great.

They sold 9 million phones.

They researched the product and market extensively.

These are literally $50,000,000,000 decisions.

 

I'm sorry I'll support Mr Cook on this one instead of a hermit.

 

Asking for hard numbers is silly.  Apple has NEVER given hard numbers in their quarterly financials for a specific iPhone model. NEVER. You are being silly.  Its like saying I think Apple sold 95% iPhone4's last quarter.  And then say there are no hard numbers so I must be right. Whatever.

 

A well respected forum member asked for hard numbers/evidece the other day to support a members claim that sales of the 5c were terrible (which I did not say). I said the same as you. We will never get hard numbers from Apple. His reply to me was that we will wait until Tim Cook actually says there are bad numbers (in reference to a comment I made about Cook), and then we can discuss it again. I would never say that member's request was silly.

 

So I say the reverse. Wait until Tim Cook actually says there are good numbers for the 5c (specifically), and then we can discuss it again.

 

** It must also be noted that I have stated in at least 2 threads that I believe the 5c will sell well during the holiday period.


Edited by island hermit - 9/26/13 at 12:42pm
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post #94 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


Moral of the story?

There are a lot of people out there spewing nonsense about subjects that they couldn't possibly have information on.

The only real number we have is that Apple sold 9 M phones over the weekend.

We also have reports that 5S phones are appearing in various usage stats 3 times as often as 5C phones. The data might be correct, but may not be useful - because there's no way to know whether the data is representative of the entire world. Therefore, the data is somewhat questionable.

The rest is simply made up garbage with absolutely no methodology and no reason at all to believe that it is valid. And considering that Munster, in particular, has been so far off on his previous predictions, there's no reason to give him the benefit of the doubt.
I suspect that's not too far off the mark.
'C' was never for cheap. It's clearly for color.

As for the rest, please let us know how many multibillion dollar products you've produced and marketed and why your opinion is right while Apple is wrong. They've decided that a new case design was a good idea for some reason - and the results bear that out. I'm guessing that they wanted to differentiate the 'better' phone from the 'best' phone or they wanted to have a phone that appeals to a different audience. Regardless of the reason, though, there's absolutely no reason to believe that you know more about it than Apple.

You're not even trying to understand the data, just jumping to silly conclusions.  

 

Also, if I can prove to you without a shadow of a doubt that one of your assumptions is incorrect, are you likely to change your conclusion?

 

In terms of multi-billion dollar products, I think it unlikely that many people have both produced and marketed them.   Please don't underestimate the people on this forum, many of us have been in the tech sector for a long time, and if you believe that Apple is the only company with multi-billion dollar products you're very mistaken.  I've worked in marketing and product management on dozens of multi-billion dollar products with both IBM and AT&T.

post #95 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post
 


  Please don't underestimate the people on this forum, many of us have been in the tech sector for a long time, and if you believe that Apple is the only company with multi-billion dollar products you're very mistaken.  I've worked in marketing and product management on dozens of multi-billion dollar products with both IBM and AT&T.

Wow. Is that you Balmer?


Edited by snova - 9/26/13 at 2:17pm
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post #96 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Cook didn't specifically say the numbers. He also didn't specifically say 5s and 5c. He said new iPhones. Yes, we know the 5s was flying off the shelves, the 5c is still in doubt. There is talk of channel inventory. We don't know specific numbers. Maybe you do, the rest of us don't.

What would you like him to say, "The 5s had amazing sales, the 5c... not so much". Even if it was true the shareholders would sue Apple into the pavement.

So, I'm saying that I want to see the numbers broken down before I accept it as gospel.

Thank you.

Would it matter if it was channel stuffing ( which it's not)? Why can every other company allowed to stuff channels or not report any meaningful numbers but Apple? I don't remember analysts whining about channel stuffing for Sammy?
post #97 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post

Sometimes I wonder if anyone who writes for this publication has a brain.

Let's see if any of the bright readers who can do a bit of math can put this together:

1. This analyst claims that of the 9 million units sold, approximately half were the 5s and half were the 5c.

2. Usage data suggest that approximately 78% of the phones tracked were 5s and 22% were 5c.

3. The analyst mentions that there is a difference between sell-in and sell-through, but this article doesn't try to explain what the significance is or even come close to understanding why this is significant.

4. An Apple bull suggests that the 'real' sales were closer to 5.5 million units.

 

Munster was likely right, Apple probably sold around 5.5 million units during the weekend!

 

And, this analyst is likely correct in that half the models sold were 5C and the other half 5S.

AND, Tim Cook is right that 9 million units sold!

 

How does that work?  First you need to understand what a sale is for Apple.  It includes what's called "Sell-In" in the industry, which means that any phones sold to AT&T, DoCoMo, Bell Canada, Telstra, China Unicom etc. are included as revenue for Apple, and they can rightly claim them as sales.   So no, Tim Cook is not lying.  They have sold 9 million phones.

 

However, in the past, Apple has typically sold out of their new iPhone, so there was no surplus inventory left in the channel.  This year seems different; every indication is that the 5S has sold out, but the 5C has not.  So, there appear to be a number of 5C models sitting around unsold.  How many?  Well Munster is guessing 3.5 million.

 

If you take the data from localytics, in their report titled "China Leads the Pack in Preference For iPhone 5s Over 5c"  published September 24th, you'll find the statement, Globally the iPhone 5s represented 78% of all of the new iPhone 5s and 5c devices.

 

If Apple has sold all 5S units (approximately 4.5 million), and that represents 78% of all phones, then the remaining 22% are iPhone 5C models....a bit of basic math and you'll see that they have sold approximately 1 million 5C models. 

 

So, total sales to end customers of approximately 5.5 million units and 3.5 million sitting in the channel as Munster has stated.

 

If this is correct, Apple has a problem.  The sales of the 5S are doing well, roughly equal to the 5.  But, the 5C is not doing well, and Apple has shipped too many.  To further the problem, China, where they really need to do well is the worst case according to the data from localytics.  It's the market that is selling the lowest proportion of 5C models which makes you question their whole strategy of a lower priced model to enter into emerging markets.


Edited by JamesMac - 9/26/13 at 1:34pm
post #98 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Would it matter if it was channel stuffing ( which it's not)? Why can every other company allowed to stuff channels or not report any meaningful numbers but Apple? I don't remember analysts whining about channel stuffing for Sammy?

 

I think you just spoke heresy.

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post #99 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post
 

Munster was likely right, Apple probably sold around 5.5 million units during the weekend!

 

I can tell you are going to be very popular around here.  8-)

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post #100 of 111
"But he's also bullish on the iPhone 5c, which he admitted beat his expectations for sales while also carrying high margins."
Why cant most analysts do that, admit that they were wrong people would have more respect for them if they did unlike that boob Munster and his sidekick hack.
post #101 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post
 

 

Munster was likely right, Apple probably sold around 5.5 million units during the weekend!

 

And, this analyst is likely correct in that half the models sold were 5C and the other half 5S.

AND, Tim Cook is right that 9 million units sold!

 

How does that work?  First you need to understand what a sale is for Apple.  It includes what's called "Sell-In" in the industry, which means that any phones sold to AT&T, DoCoMo, Bell Canada, Telstra, China Unicom etc. are included as revenue for Apple, and they can rightly claim them as sales.   So no, Tim Cook is not lying.  They have sold 9 million phones.

 

However, in the past, Apple has typically sold out of their new iPhone, so there was no surplus inventory left in the channel.  This year seems different; every indication is that the 5S has sold out, but the 5C has not.  So, there appear to be a number of 5C models sitting around unsold.  How many?  Well Munster is guessing 3.5 million.

 

If you take the data from localytics, in their report titled "China Leads the Pack in Preference For iPhone 5s Over 5c  published September 24th, you'll find the statement, Globally the iPhone 5s represented 78% of all of the new iPhone 5s and 5c devices.

 

If Apple has sold all 5S units (approximately 4.5 million), and that represents 78% of all phones, then the remaining 22% are iPhone 5C models....a bit of basic math and you'll see that they have sold approximately 1 million 5C models. 

 

So, total sales to end customers of approximately 5.5 million units and 3.5 million sitting in the channel as Munster has stated.

 

If this is correct, Apple has a problem.  The sales of the 5S are doing well, roughly equal to the 5.  But, the 5C is not doing well, and Apple has shipped too many.  To further the problem, China, where they really need to do well is the worst case according to the data from localytics.  It's the market that is selling the lowest proportion of 5C models which makes you question their whole strategy of a lower priced model to enter into emerging markets.

 

How does anyone know how much 5C's were in inventory.  You don't know. 

 

I thought I've heard it all but this takes the cake:  Basing sales on localytics.  Really stupid.  And how do you know Apple sold 4.5 Mil 5S?  This is speculation based on speculation based on speculation.  Pure stupidity. 

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post #102 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

How does anyone know how much 5C's were in inventory.  You don't know. 

 

I thought I've heard it all but this takes the cake:  Basing sales on localytics.  Really stupid.  And how do you know Apple sold 4.5 Mil 5S?  This is speculation based on speculation based on speculation.  Pure stupidity. 

 

I suspect this is the first time I've been called stupid by someone who doesn't know the difference between 'much' and 'many'.  

 

I'll try one part, very slowly, just for you.  The number of units shipped minus the number of units active is a good approximation of the number of units yet sold.

post #103 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post
 
 The number of units shipped minus the number of units active is a good approximation of the number of units yet sold.

How do we know localytics data is any good? They only track apps which are customers of theirs. How many chinese app developers do you think they have? Perhaps many first time iPhone buyers in China don't go out and download a bunch of apps, and if they did it would likely be free apps since only about 1-2% of Chinese have credit cards. Maybe they are like me and only download apps from major developers like Apple, Facebook, Twitter, Skype and Google, None of those organizations are going to share any statistics with localytics.

 

I  rarely trust usage statistics from analytic firms because they always have their own bias. For example if you looked at W3 Schools web stats you could make the assumption that Internet Explorer did not exist. Yet other websites report IE at 40%.

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post #104 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by PScooter63 View Post

Thread redirect:

I visited a highly-visible third-part accessory retailer earlier this week (in a well-trafficked venue).  The proprietor sells for all popular mobile devices, but his inventory is Apple-heavy.

So we got into a conversation about the new phones, and he insisted, with a straight face, that:
  - The 5c is vastly slower than last year's 5, and in fact, they put a downgraded processor in it;
  - The "c" stands for Cheap;
  - In summary, don't buy the 5c.

I excused myself without getting into it with him, but still, I wonder... where is that mindset coming from?  And how much is "anti-buzz" like this affecting 5c sales?

There are lots of idiots out there. Many of them are doing that their employers recommend - pumping up Android products or other products that get them extra spiffs. I don't know what that person's problem is, of course.

Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Some people have claimed it would be a blow out hit. Compared to that.

1. Who is 'some people' and why should we care what they have to say? If Apple made a prediction, tell us what they said. Otherwise, I don't see that I should be bound by 'some people' that you made up.

2. I would say the 5C WAS a blowout hit. The lowest estimate was that 2 M 5C units were sold in launch weekend. Now, there are a handful of phones (a couple of iPhones and one or two Galaxy models) that sold more than that in one weekend, but every one of them was a brand new phone with the latest technology. I can't think of another phone based on last year's technology that ever sold 2 M in its launch weekend.

3. I think the story of the 5C remains to be told. Since it's based on last year's phone, I wouldn't expect the massive surge in sales that the 5S received. Rather, it is likely to have a smaller peak, but less decline over time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post

You're not even trying to understand the data, just jumping to silly conclusions.  


Also, if I can prove to you without a shadow of a doubt that one of your assumptions is incorrect, are you likely to change your conclusion?

Not interested in your fantasies. If you think that what I said was incorrect, feel free to point it out.
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post #105 of 111
Quote:
Limited supply of the iPhone 5s during launch weekend may have led to a relatively even split of sales between Apple's new flagship model and the more affordable iPhone 5c, one well-connected analyst has said.

 

In my opinion, if the PREFERRED model is the pricier model, as implied by the shortage of 5S, then to call the less costly model "more affordable" belies a bias that tries to suggest that the less costly model is in some way better. 

 

Sales seem to suggest otherwise. 

 

Word choice matters.  The less costly model is only "more affordable" to the minority who choose to buy it on the basis of cost.  Like the analyst, I suppose.  It's like reporting that the fashion show loser was the more prettily-garbed contestant--only the dissenting judges would say so.

post #106 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post
 

How do we know localytics data is any good? They only track apps which are customers of theirs. How many chinese app developers do you think they have? Perhaps many first time iPhone buyers in China don't go out and download a bunch of apps, and if they did it would likely be free apps since only about 1-2% of Chinese have credit cards. Maybe they are like me and only download apps from major developers like Apple, Facebook, Twitter, Skype and Google, None of those organizations are going to share any statistics with localytics.

 

I  rarely trust usage statistics from analytic firms because they always have their own bias. For example if you looked at W3 Schools web stats you could make the assumption that Internet Explorer did not exist. Yet other websites report IE at 40%.

 

All good points, however, all I was looking for was the proportion of users using the 5C versus the 5S, not an absolute value.  Based on this need, the sample size can be quite small and the error margin would be relatively small.  U.S. is likely over-represented, but the difference between U.S. and the rest of the world is relatively small and I wasn't looking for huge accuracy.

 

I'm very familiar with Web Browser stats and have done a lot of research in this area.  I know this is a side note, but the reason that you see such discrepancy in the data as you mentioned can be articulated as Net Applications versus everyone else.  Only Net Applications shows such a high proportion of IE traffic.  The reason is that they use country weightings on the data from CIA data and no one else does.

post #107 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post
1. Who is 'some people' and why should we care what they have to say? If Apple made a prediction, tell us what they said. Otherwise, I don't see that I should be bound by 'some people' that you made up.

2. I would say the 5C WAS a blowout hit. The lowest estimate was that 2 M 5C units were sold in launch weekend. Now, there are a handful of phones (a couple of iPhones and one or two Galaxy models) that sold more than that in one weekend, but every one of them was a brand new phone with the latest technology. I can't think of another phone based on last year's technology that ever sold 2 M in its launch weekend.

3. I think the story of the 5C remains to be told. Since it's based on last year's phone, I wouldn't expect the massive surge in sales that the 5S received. Rather, it is likely to have a smaller peak, but less decline over time.
Not interested in your fantasies. If you think that what I said was incorrect, feel free to point it out.
 

 

1. Oh, for f*ck's sake - the only thing I have ever said was a reply to a few people on here that said, upon the introduction of the 5c, that it would be a real hit. I said I didn't think so. (and I have reiterated that several times with absolutely no comprehension of that statement from the opposing members) It was an opinion, just like their opinion. A few others, including yourself, made it into a huge issue. I gave my reasons. they gave their reasons. So far nobody can say decisively if it sold well in the last week or not. I also said that I thought the 5c would sell well during the holiday season.

 

2. You have your opinion of a blow out hit and I have mine. For all intent and purpose the 5c is a new phone. At least that seems to be the way that Apple is selling it.

 

3. You say that you are not interested in my fantasies... yet you respond.  Sheesh! Talk about fantasy.


Edited by island hermit - 9/26/13 at 4:26pm
Hmmmmmm...
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Hmmmmmm...
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post #108 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Munster said that Tim Cook is a damn liar and that Apple sold only a little more than 6 million and the rest were sitting on the Apple retail store shelves. Munster said that those iPhones may get sold and maybe they won't. Munster is sure Apple is trying to fudge iPhone sales numbers to fool investors but he swore he wasn't going to let Apple get away with it. He says he's knows Apple's sales capabilities far better than Tim Cook and by Munster's exemplary understanding of Apple's distribution methods he surmised that his estimate was much more accurate than Tim Cook's exaggerated numbers.

Gene Munster went on TV to prove he was right and Apple was wrong and he knew Tim Cook couldn't prove him wrong. Munster went on to announce his predictions about Apple almost always turned out 100% correct. If he predicted Apple would sell 6 million iPhones then it wouldn't be possible for Apple to sell millions more. Wall Street believed him and Apple's share price momentum came to an immediate halt. As a result of Munster's "proof" Apple's share price still hasn't be able to get back over $500 and YTD Apple's share price is still in negative territory.

/s

No, Gene Munster just try to explain Apple sales policy to all the idiots who does not understand what sales mean in Apple dictionary. In Apple term, a sales is a shipment to any carrier and retail store like BB/RS etc. and a shipment to retail customer who paid for the mechandize. In the last few quarter, Tim Cook and Oppenheimer has to explain the sales in and sale through concept to all the analyst during the conference call.  Toward the end of the end of the conference call Tim Cook jumped in and explained more.. A sales does not mean that the unit is shipped to the customers. It may be sitting on retailer shell waiting for a customer to come in and buy it.  Those are the channel inventory that Oppenheimer discussed in this transcript.

 

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/call-transcript.aspx?StoryId=1566012&Title=apple-inc-aapl-ceo-discusses-f3q-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript

 

 

Quote:
Peter Oppenheimer
.....
 
 As for the details of the quarter, I’d like to begin with iPhone. We sold 31.2 million iPhones compared to 26 million in the year ago quarter, an increase of 5.2 million, or 20%. We had a sequential decrease of about 600,000 iPhones in channel inventory in the June quarter translating to iPhone sell-through of about 31.8 million units. iPhone sales were ahead of our expectations and we were particularly pleased with very strong year-over-year growth in iPhone sales in a number of both developed and emerging markets including the U.S., UK, Japan, Brazil, Russia, India, Thailand and Singapore. iPhone 5 remains by far the most popular iPhone but we were also happy with sales of iPhone 4 and 4s. We exited the quarter with about 11 million units of total iPhones in channel inventory and ended within our target range of 4 to 6 weeks of iPhone channel inventory.

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/call-transcript.aspx?StoryId=1566012&Title=apple-inc-aapl-ceo-discusses-f3q-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript#ixzz2g2zXt0HB
post #109 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Actually Apple just calls it the iPod touch, iMac, MacBook. If Apple really want to stick to its naming format, the iPhone will be iPhone for all generations. Of course then people would get confused when it continued selling the previous year's version.
Good point.

Considering the current lineup, the 5s is more like the MacBook Pro, the 5c like the MacBook, and the 4s being the somewhat confusing remainder. Though granted appending a number and a letter to the name does not follow convention, either. More likely iPhone Pro, iPhone, and in the case of the 4s, iPhone mini (though that would require some confusing rebranding). I think they missed a perfect opportunity with the 5c to rebrand the line. Haha

But you raise an interesting point, the 5c is no longer similar to the 5s as the 5 would have been, and the 4s looks completely different as well. So if they move forward with this configuration, they well could call them all just "iPhone" clearly differentiated by their physical appearance. Interesting that Apple essentially took the same approach with the iPad, and iPad 2, ostensibly to avoid confusion because they otherwise physically look identical, then stopped with what would have been the iPad 3 and 4.

What if next years free phone is an 8GB 5c in black only? Then the "5sc" in 5 updated colors, and the 6. You could definitely call them all just "iPhone" then.
post #110 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post
 

 

All good points, however, all I was looking for was the proportion of users using the 5C versus the 5S, not an absolute value.  Based on this need, the sample size can be quite small and the error margin would be relatively small.  U.S. is likely over-represented, but the difference between U.S. and the rest of the world is relatively small and I wasn't looking for huge accuracy.

 

I'm very familiar with Web Browser stats and have done a lot of research in this area.  I know this is a side note, but the reason that you see such discrepancy in the data as you mentioned can be articulated as Net Applications versus everyone else.  Only Net Applications shows such a high proportion of IE traffic.  The reason is that they use country weightings on the data from CIA data and no one else does.

 

So again you are basing your assumption on an assumption on another assumption.

 

You have ZERO idea what the ratio between 5S and 5C's are.  No one know except Apple. PERIOD.  From that assumption you estimate 5C sales.  And then from that 5C sales.  And from there you conclude that 3.5 million 5C's are in inventory.  This is beyond stupid.  If any of your assumptions are off your entire estimate of 3.5 million is wrong.  You are grasping at straws. 

 

The only reason Muster is making up the 3.5 million number is to save his ass.  PERIOD.  He was wrong by 5 million units last year and 4 million units this year.  So this is the man you take your estimated sales advice from?  Really?  I could literally ask a person on the street and they would be able to estimate Apple's opening sales the last two years better than this clown.  Also don't forget this is the same clown that said the China Mobile deal was going to be announced at the iPhone event earlier this month.  And he was 99% sure of it.  The same clown that has been saying the iTV was coming out in 2011, than 2012. than 2013.  Same. Clown. And you believe his crap?

 

Your Quote about the 3.5 million unsold 5C's : "Munster was likely right"

 

Really?  Likely right? 

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
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Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
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post #111 of 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac_128 View Post

Good point.

Considering the current lineup, the 5s is more like the MacBook Pro, the 5c like the MacBook, and the 4s being the somewhat confusing remainder. Though granted appending a number and a letter to the name does not follow convention, either. More likely iPhone Pro, iPhone, and in the case of the 4s, iPhone mini (though that would require some confusing rebranding). I think they missed a perfect opportunity with the 5c to rebrand the line. Haha

But you raise an interesting point, the 5c is no longer similar to the 5s as the 5 would have been, and the 4s looks completely different as well. So if they move forward with this configuration, they well could call them all just "iPhone" clearly differentiated by their physical appearance. Interesting that Apple essentially took the same approach with the iPad, and iPad 2, ostensibly to avoid confusion because they otherwise physically look identical, then stopped with what would have been the iPad 3 and 4.

What if next years free phone is an 8GB 5c in black only? Then the "5sc" in 5 updated colors, and the 6. You could definitely call them all just "iPhone" then.

Oh boy. Perhaps it will call the next flagship the iPhone, the mid range (this year's flagship) the iPhone SC, the "free" one iPhone C, and the 4.5/5" flagship the iPhone +.
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