Originally Posted by JamesMac
Sometimes I wonder if anyone who writes for this publication has a brain.
Let's see if any of the bright readers who can do a bit of math can put this together:
1. This analyst claims that of the 9 million units sold, approximately half were the 5s and half were the 5c.
2. Usage data suggest that approximately 78% of the phones tracked were 5s and 22% were 5c.
3. The analyst mentions that there is a difference between sell-in and sell-through, but this article doesn't try to explain what the significance is or even come close to understanding why this is significant.
4. An Apple bull suggests that the 'real' sales were closer to 5.5 million units.
Munster was likely right, Apple probably sold around 5.5 million units during the weekend!
And, this analyst is likely correct in that half the models sold were 5C and the other half 5S.
AND, Tim Cook is right that 9 million units sold!
How does that work? First you need to understand what a sale is for Apple. It includes what's called "Sell-In" in the industry, which means that any phones sold to AT&T, DoCoMo, Bell Canada, Telstra, China Unicom etc. are included as revenue for Apple, and they can rightly claim them as sales. So no, Tim Cook is not lying. They have sold 9 million phones.
However, in the past, Apple has typically sold out of their new iPhone, so there was no surplus inventory left in the channel. This year seems different; every indication is that the 5S has sold out, but the 5C has not. So, there appear to be a number of 5C models sitting around unsold. How many? Well Munster is guessing 3.5 million.
If you take the data from localytics, in their report titled "China Leads the Pack in Preference For iPhone 5s Over 5c" published September 24th, you'll find the statement, Globally the iPhone 5s represented 78% of all of the new iPhone 5s and 5c devices.
If Apple has sold all 5S units (approximately 4.5 million), and that represents 78% of all phones, then the remaining 22% are iPhone 5C models....a bit of basic math and you'll see that they have sold approximately 1 million 5C models.
So, total sales to end customers of approximately 5.5 million units and 3.5 million sitting in the channel as Munster has stated.
If this is correct, Apple has a problem. The sales of the 5S are doing well, roughly equal to the 5. But, the 5C is not doing well, and Apple has shipped too many. To further the problem, China, where they really need to do well is the worst case according to the data from localytics. It's the market that is selling the lowest proportion of 5C models which makes you question their whole strategy of a lower priced model to enter into emerging markets.
Edited by JamesMac - 9/26/13 at 1:34pm