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iPhone demand in China, Japan projected to push Sept. quarter sales to 34.5M

post #1 of 58
Thread Starter 
Projected iPhone sales for the current September quarter continue to edge upward, with the latest survey data suggesting Apple could sell more than 34 million handsets in the soon-to-conclude period.

Huberty


Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley revealed the latest AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker survey data to AppleInsider on Thursday, which shows iPhone demand in the third quarter of calendar 2013 tracking to 37 million units. While Apple may not be able to supply an iPhone 5s unit to everyone who wants one by the end of the quarter, Huberty believes Apple will ship about 34.5 million handsets during the period.

If her estimate proves to be accurate, that would prove better than the already-increased expectations of 33 million shared by Wall Street watchers. Many analysts' estimates were raise after Apple reported record sales of 9 million units during the launch weekend for the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c.

In particular, consumer interest in Japan and China are responsible for the largest share of the year over year increase in interest in Apple's iPhone, according to the AlphaWise study.

The study, which measures consumer demand, is based on an analysis of Web search results. It found that demand for the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c has been considerable even after the devices went on sale last Friday.

Last week, Huberty said that concerns over preorders for Apple's iPhone 5c, and the lack of available preorders for the iPhone 5s, were "overblown." She cited survey data that showed healthy demand for Apple's latest iPhones.
post #2 of 58
Still doomed.
post #3 of 58
That is 25% growth yoy... .... Lovely!!
post #4 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post

That is 25% growth yoy... .... Lovely!!

 

correct.

But margins will still be down. 

 

Thats okay. Q1 with only 5S/5C sales will push margins close to 40% and should have significant EPS growth also.  Also EPS should be helped with a larger buyback.


Edited by sog35 - 9/26/13 at 12:59pm
post #5 of 58

I'm waiting for the China Mobile debut. That should be interesting.

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post #6 of 58
This whole margins thing kills me. Why is noone else held to this standard.
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post #7 of 58

She is clearly paid by Apple to say this. Everyone knows that the iPhone is too expensive for China and will be a major flop.

 

/s

post #8 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

I'm waiting for the China Mobile debut. That should be interesting.

 

Same here.  That's a LOT of subscribers itching to get their hands on an iPhone.

post #9 of 58
This is all great news, but I get nervous when Apple sales projections start flowing. Every analyst who has derided Apple during the quarter suddenly decides to project sales that cannot be beat. When that happens, the analysts punish the stock and have negative talking points to express for the next three months.

Heck, even Gene Munster has decided to raise is head again to announce he expects Apple to lower the prices of the iPhones 5C, 4S and 4 if not by December 2013 then definitely by March 2014 due to aging iPhones. For some reason the article quoting used "we" instead of @he". I sensed he was attempting to delay or prevent a lawsuit from occurring if he gets another Gene Munster analysis wrong.

I want him sued for pretty much calling Tim Cook a liar about iPhone sales instead of just apologizing for being wrong. Did he not know Apple informed the SEC the sales would have a material effect on Apple's announced projected income for the quarter?
post #10 of 58
Dear analysts... I hear McDonald's is raising the wage to $15/hour. Sounds like a good career move for you.
post #11 of 58
Originally Posted by jkichline View Post
Dear analysts... I hear McDonald's is raising the wage to $15/hour. Sounds like a good career move for you.

 

Manual labor? Accountability for their work? Daily schedules? Eh…

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post #12 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by muadibe View Post
 

 

Same here.  That's a LOT of subscribers itching to get their hands on an iPhone.

 

It is already estimated that between 42 and 46 million CM are using an iPhone.

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post #13 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by dugbug View Post

This whole margins thing kills me. Why is noone else held to this standard.

Since Apple is nearly the only company earning money (like in "obscene" amount of money), Wall Street needs to wreck Apple.

Samsung announces nothing about its shipments (uh sales, shipments) and that is okay around the world. Amazon loses money nearly every quarter and that is okay. Google sells its hardware at break even or loss prices and that is okay even though Google earns more money from iOS than Android (go figure). I could go on, but will not.
post #14 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by leavingthebigG View Post

This is all great news, but I get nervous when Apple sales projections start flowing. Every analyst who has derided Apple during the quarter suddenly decides to project sales that cannot be beat. When that happens, the analysts punish the stock and have negative talking points to express for the next three months.

Heck, even Gene Munster has decided to raise is head again to announce he expects Apple to lower the prices of the iPhones 5C, 4S and 4 if not by December 2013 then definitely by March 2014 due to aging iPhones. For some reason the article quoting used "we" instead of @he". I sensed he was attempting to delay or prevent a lawsuit from occurring if he gets another Gene Munster analysis wrong.

I want him sued for pretty much calling Tim Cook a liar about iPhone sales instead of just apologizing for being wrong. Did he not know Apple informed the SEC the sales would have a material effect on Apple's announced projected income for the quarter?

 

Unofficially, apparently some Chinese vendors have already lowered the price of the 5c by 17.5%. The equivalent of moving the price of the 5c to $454 in the US.

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post #15 of 58
Well, hell, maybe Apple will make gobtons of money this year, but because its so 'unpopular' it will get downgraded again. Maybe soon it will have a YOY sales increase of 50% and have its PE value dragged to -50. Then the stock pages can show a dash for the PE value, like they do for Amazon with its PE of 3,500 and it is utterly meaningless.

In other words, Apple profits have reached a level of meaninglessness.
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What is really factored into the price is a kind of perpetual sense of disbelief that any company could be as good as Apple is. ~Retrogusto
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post #16 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

Unofficially, apparently some Chinese vendors have already lowered the price of the 5c by 17.5%. The equivalent of moving the price of the 5c to $454 in the US.

 

Its a win for everyone.  Apple keeps its margins, Customers get a good price, and vendors get foot traffic and commissions from carriers.

post #17 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by leavingthebigG View Post
 
I could go on...

Please do.

post #18 of 58
Thanks for the laugh, anantksundaram.
post #19 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Its a win for everyone.  Apple keeps its margins, Customers get a good price, and vendors get foot traffic and commissions from carriers.

 

As long as vendors remain happy with their cut.

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post #20 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Manual labor? Accountability for their work? Daily schedules? Eh…

 

You're right. Taco Bell would be better for them.

post #21 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by leavingthebigG View Post
 
I could go on...
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post
 

Please do.

 

Well, _I_ will, if only to note that after Steve-o was berated for years for not paying dividends or buying stock back, that Apple just completed the _largest quarterly stock buyback in the history of Wall Street_, according to this guy.

 

And the effect was... well, basically, it had no effect, as far as I can tell, on the stock price.

 

I think Steve was right.

post #22 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Projected iPhone sales for the current September quarter continue to edge upward, with the latest survey data suggesting Apple could sell more than 34 million handsets in the soon-to-conclude period.

Huberty

That's a stupid chart. I couldn't care less how this analyst compares to other analysts. It would make far more sense to graph the consensus estimate (and/or individual analyst predictions) against Apple's actual reported numbers. Then we'd know which analyst is more reliable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by leavingthebigG View Post

Since Apple is nearly the only company earning money (like in "obscene" amount of money), Wall Street needs to wreck Apple.

Samsung announces nothing about its shipments (uh sales, shipments) and that is okay around the world. Amazon loses money nearly every quarter and that is okay. Google sells its hardware at break even or loss prices and that is okay even though Google earns more money from iOS than Android (go figure). I could go on, but will not.

That's about right.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdq2 View Post

Well, _I_ will, if only to note that after Steve-o was berated for years for not paying dividends or buying stock back, that Apple just completed the _largest quarterly stock buyback in the history of Wall Street_, according to this guy.

And the effect was... well, basically, it had no effect, as far as I can tell, on the stock price.

I think Steve was right.

The problem is that you have no way of knowing what effect it had on the stock price. They bought back a couple percent of the stock. That couple percent difference gets lost in the day to day swings. Once they've completed the $60 B buyback (about 15% of the stock), the difference will be apparent.
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post #23 of 58
1. I thought there was no growth left
2. Channel stuffing in China / Japan

/s
post #24 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

It is already estimated that between 42 and 46 million CM are using an iPhone.

 

I'm always curious how that can work when China Mobile uses TDS-CDMA, which no iPhone supports (the TD-LTE channels are enabled Phone 5c and 5s, but I see nothing in the current skus that shows TDS-CDMA)?

 

[UPDATE:   Okay, Okay, and iPhone 5 can be jailbroken to turn on TDS-CDMA… I caught that after the fact….  That said, that's hardly the market Apple wants to sell to]


Edited by TheOtherGeoff - 9/26/13 at 2:34pm
post #25 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

It is already estimated that between 42 and 46 million CM are using an iPhone.

 

So what. Lots of people used T-Mobile before it was an actual iPhone carrier, but they still had big sales once they officially supported it.

 

Don't any iPhones on CM not work to their full potential? They only now just added the proper bands.

post #26 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

As long as vendors remain happy with their cut.

 

Hence the 5c… with lower manufacturing costs, Apple is more willing to share more profits, allowing carriers (and non-contract vendors) to play a bit with the Retail price.

post #27 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by palomine View Post

Well, hell, maybe Apple will make gobtons of money this year, but because its so 'unpopular' it will get downgraded again. Maybe soon it will have a YOY sales increase of 50% and have its PE value dragged to -50. Then the stock pages can show a dash for the PE value, like they do for Amazon with its PE of 3,500 and it is utterly meaningless.

In other words, Apple profits have reached a level of meaninglessness.

 

I think Deidu shows it best… Apple's Stock Price is not measured by its profits, but by it's bank account.  The moment it started paying out dividends and buying back stock…. it 'fell,'  two things that would normally increase the value of the stock.

post #28 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdq2 View Post
 
..... Apple just completed the _largest quarterly stock buyback in the history of Wall Street_, ....And the effect was... well, basically, it had no effect, as far as I can tell, on the stock price.

Well, we don't know what the stock price would have been had Apple not made the repurchase program announcement.

post #29 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post
 

 

I think Deidu shows it best… Apple's Stock Price is not measured by its profits, but by it's bank account.  The moment it started paying out dividends and buying back stock…. it 'fell,'  two things that would normally increase the value of the stock.

 

This doesn't make sense.

 

Apple's cash is growing faster than it can spend it.

post #30 of 58

Apple's stock will rise they day they do the following:

 

Lower the price of the phones to one penny, while maintaining the highest margins in business, while coming out with magical products in categories that don't even exist today, while blowing past every Analyst's hyped up Apple sales forecasts by tenfold.

 

Until or unless that happens, APPL will NOT break 500.

 

The Analysts demand MAGIC TRICKS.

 

I suggest we all pitch in and hire them a magician with a rabbit.

 

And the Analysts themselves can play the clowns, which they are!

post #31 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by allenbf View Post

Still doomed.

 

I agree.  Selling more is really bad and will kill Apple in the long run just like all the other companies that sell more and go under.

post #32 of 58
Overly optimistic analysts don't help Apple. They set these ridiculously high expectations and Apple stock holders pay the price if Apple does not beat them by a huge amount. I wish they would all shut up and go away.
post #33 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post
 

 

Hence the 5c… with lower manufacturing costs, Apple is more willing to share more profits, allowing carriers (and non-contract vendors) to play a bit with the Retail price.

 

The price is being lowered the equivalent of $95. I really don't think the difference between the cost of the 5c and the 5s is that much.

 

I think the profit from the device itself is basically zero at that point.

 

... and, besides, Apple is not reflected in this discount. Apple is still getting its margins.

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post #34 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post
 

 

I think Deidu shows it best… Apple's Stock Price is not measured by its profits, but by it's bank account.  The moment it started paying out dividends and buying back stock…. it 'fell,'  two things that would normally increase the value of the stock.

...measured by bank account?  No.  Your cause effect logic is completely spurious.

 

And while I cannot offer better logic, I can say with some confidence that Apple is merely a unique company in an unique environment.  Control of software, hardware and platform with global reach has never been done.  Because of this, big investors use/abuse stock market sentiment to create fluctuations in prices when there REALLY IS NO FINANCIAL REASON for the stock to rise and fall.  Each rise and fall of share price is an opportunity for big investors to make money and many of them are making money....with a factor of probability that neither you nor I can compete with.


But don't for a moment think that each rise and fall is tied to some single factor, like "bank account".

post #35 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

I think Deidu shows it best… Apple's Stock Price is not measured by its profits, but by it's bank account.  The moment it started paying out dividends and buying back stock…. it 'fell,'  two things that would normally increase the value of the stock.

Then Deidu is an idiot. A company's bank account is only one component that determines its stock price.

Would you rather have a company with $1 B in the bank and earning $10 B per year or a company with $2 B in its bank account and losing $5 B per year?

The only question is whether Apple could do something else with $150 B that would have a greater impact than reducing the number of outstanding shares. There may be something else, but they couldn't think of it - and I sure haven't heard any suggestions.
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post #36 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

Hence the 5c… with lower manufacturing costs, Apple is more willing to share more profits, allowing carriers (and non-contract vendors) to play a bit with the Retail price.

Apple doesn't share. They have a take it or leave it approach.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Then Deidu is an idiot. A company's bank account is only one component that determines its stock price.

Would you rather have a company with $1 B in the bank and earning $10 B per year or a company with $2 B in its bank account and losing $5 B per year?

The only question is whether Apple could do something else with $150 B that would have a greater impact than reducing the number of outstanding shares. There may be something else, but they couldn't think of it - and I sure haven't heard any suggestions.

Pick a different analogy. If the lose 5B a year they have no money in the bank.
post #37 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast View Post
 

 

So what. Lots of people used T-Mobile before it was an actual iPhone carrier, but they still had big sales once they officially supported it.

 

Don't any iPhones on CM not work to their full potential? They only now just added the proper bands.

 

It was a statement, pal. That's all. Just a statement. Why does everything have to be an issue.

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post #38 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post
 

 

I'm always curious how that can work when China Mobile uses TDS-CDMA, which no iPhone supports (the TD-LTE channels are enabled Phone 5c and 5s, but I see nothing in the current skus that shows TDS-CDMA)?

 

[UPDATE:   Okay, Okay, and iPhone 5 can be jailbroken to turn on TDS-CDMA… I caught that after the fact….  That said, that's hardly the market Apple wants to sell to]

 

Apple is selling to that market. These are people who want iPhones. Apple makes iPhones.  ;)
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post #39 of 58
34 million iPhones for the next quarter can't be good. I heard Samsung sells that many smartphones every month. That's why Samsung now dominates the smartphone industry and Apple is a far distant second place. The "Apple is doomed" cries will continue in all 2013.

/s
post #40 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Pick a different analogy. If the lose 5B a year they have no money in the bank.

Absolutely false. Lots of companies that are losing money have cash in the bank. Of course, if the cash flow is negative, they'll have less cash next year or will run out of cash, but there's absolutely no reason why a money-losing company can't have cash in the bank at one moment in time. (And that, of course, ignores the possibility that you could be losing money and still have a positive cash flow).

If you don't understand even that simple concept, you really have no business entering this discussion at all.
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