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Apple's iPhone 5s shows better availability than iPhone 5 at the same point

post #1 of 35
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New channel supply tracking data indicates that Apple's flagship iPhone 5s is easier to find in stores than its predecessor, the iPhone 5, at the same point after its release.

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The report, from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, tracked inventory in 60 Apple retail stores from Oct. 2 to Oct. 3. At least one model of the space gray iPhone 5s was available in nearly every Apple store contacted, a significant improvement over last year's iPhone 5 launch when the handset was nearly impossible to find in any configuration.

Munster attributes the increased availability to higher manufacturing yields for the iPhone 5s's mechanical elements, which remain largely unchanged from the iPhone 5. He believes "Apple has done a good job" mitigating possible yield issues from the iPhone 5s's Touch ID fingerprint sensor, which some analysts pegged as a supply constraint prior to the phone's launch in September.

The analyst maintains his "Overweight" rating and $640 price target for Apple's stock, while reiterating confidence in the firm's estimate of 53 million iPhone unit sales in the upcoming holiday quarter.

The iPhone 5s and 5c saw record-breaking sales of more than 9 million units in their first weekend of availability and continue to be in high demand. The new smartphones were the top sellers for all four major U.S. carriers in September.
post #2 of 35
Quote:
New channel supply tracking data indicates that Apple's flagship iPhone 5s is easier to find in stores than its predecessor, the iPhone 5, at the same point after its release.

 

Well of course. Apple's been channel stuffing. That's what happens when there is much less demand for the 5s or 5c compared to when the 5 was released.

 

/s


Edited by MikeJones - 10/4/13 at 1:01pm
post #3 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

He believes "Apple has done a good job" mitigating possible yield issues from the iPhone 5s's Touch ID fingerprint sensor, which some analysts pegged as a supply constraint prior to the phone's launch in September.

Either Apple did a good job of mitigating or the analysts did a bad job of pegging.
post #4 of 35
based the check from this site http://iphone-check.herokuapp.com/, it only seems the 16G grey one is readily available, which is a good thing. It means people do want and are willing to pay at least $100 more for more capacity, which boost Apple's margin, cause a 16GB more storage cost way less than $100. Hooray!!!
post #5 of 35
There's no channel stuffing lol. You can't buy a 5S because it's in high demand in every market around the world. The channel is emptied as soon as Apple fills it.

It's called a hot runaway best selling product. And the 5C is doing WAY better than its predecessor, the 4S this time last year.

Pfffffffft. The only way to spin this is: Apple is knocking it out of the park.
post #6 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeJones View Post

Well of course. Apple's been channel stuffing. That's what happens when there is much less demand for the 5s or 5c compared to when the 5 was released.

/s

As soon as i read the heading of this article.. I Immidiatly headed here to see if some idiots had posted what you did.
post #7 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

There's no channel stuffing lol. You can't buy a 5S because it's in high demand in every market around the world. The channel is emptied as soon as Apple fills it.

It's called a hot runaway best selling product. And the 5C is doing WAY better than its predecessor, the 4S this time last year.

Pfffffffft. The only way to spin this is: Apple is knocking it out of the park.

Sprint reports they have some number of silver 16 and 32GB 5s in my area. ATT has some 16GB grey. Verizon has some 32 and 64GB 5s's in grey, but that's again in my area, Central Florida. Looks like the inventory may be improving quickly.
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post #8 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

There's no channel stuffing lol. You can't buy a 5S because it's in high demand in every market around the world. The channel is emptied as soon as Apple fills it.

It's called a hot runaway best selling product. And the 5C is doing WAY better than its predecessor, the 4S this time last year.

Pfffffffft. The only way to spin this is: Apple is knocking it out of the park.
I'm curious how you have access to all this sales data on the 5C...
post #9 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


I'm curious how you have access to all this sales data on the 5C...

 

Doesn't...

Hmmmmmm...
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post #10 of 35
I thought the yields were low and demand was soft? Which is it, wild guessing analysts?
post #11 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

At least one model of the space gray iPhone 5s was available in nearly every Apple store contacted, a significant improvement over last year's iPhone 5 launch when the handset was nearly impossible to find in any configuration.
 

That's because iPhone 5 did not have that glorious gold that has so many 5s buyers waiting for!!...though probably silver is in a decent 2nd place.  Not to insult the space gray lovers, but....why?!

post #12 of 35

I'm sure Apple, the most successful and richest company on the planet, that just sold 9,000,000+ phones in a weekend, is sighing in relief, after being validated and told they've done a "good job" by Gene Muster. All little Apple strives to achieve is approval by these clueless analysts. 

post #13 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post


As soon as i read the heading of this article.. I Immidiatly headed here to see if some idiots had posted what you did.

 

He was kidding.

post #14 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post
 

That's because iPhone 5 did not have that glorious gold that has so many 5s buyers waiting for!!...though probably silver is in a decent 2nd place.  Not to insult the space gray lovers, but....why?!

 

Closest thing to black. Personally, the closer they get to a solid back, shiny, obsidian slab, the more I like it. Space Gray, to me(just me) is a step by in terms of color.

 

I want a Monolith.

post #15 of 35
In the Seattle area there are no AT&T 5s in any size or color for days... It's total joke... I check Apple's inventory every few hours & it is 0.... I've to the Apple store a few times & they tell you it best to just home...
post #16 of 35

same here in new jersey. i gave up and ordered 64GB gold via Apple Online Store. 

post #17 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by woolie View Post

In the Seattle area there are no AT&T 5s in any size or color for days... It's total joke... I check Apple's inventory every few hours & it is 0.... I've to the Apple store a few times & they tell you it best to just home...

What?
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post #18 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eternal Emperor View Post
 

 

Closest thing to black. Personally, the closer they get to a solid back, shiny, obsidian slab, the more I like it. Space Gray, to me(just me) is a step by in terms of color.

 

I want a Monolith.

Mmmmm, yes...that shiny obsidian is a nice color for iPhone.  I prefer obsidian black to space gray as well.  Anyway, I was just commenting that that's possibly a reason for space gray to be in stock...is that customers are willing to wait for the two white versions.  Color is more important than one would think.

post #19 of 35
Local EE/orange shop (uk) could only get 16gb grey versions. Higher capacity versions were available in limited quantities but were only going to their flagship stores. Still waiting for mine - 32gb
post #20 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post


As soon as i read the heading of this article.. I Immidiatly headed here to see if some idiots had posted what you did.

 

you did see the /s for sarcasm

post #21 of 35

PLEASE, PLEASE At&t get my 5s here soon!! 

post #22 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post


As soon as i read the heading of this article.. I Immidiatly headed here to see if some idiots had posted what you did.

 

Notice the /s in the lower left corner of his post.  That means Sarcasm.  

 

Lol looks like others posted the same too.

post #23 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post
 

I'm sure Apple, the most successful and richest company on the planet, that just sold 9,000,000+ phones in a weekend, is sighing in relief, after being validated and told they've done a "good job" by Gene Muster. All little Apple strives to achieve is approval by these clueless analysts. 

 

Munster is the worst one of all.  He started the channel stuffing rumors because of his own lack of being able to accurately forecast the correct number of sales of opening weekend.  He blew it for the 5 and blew it for the 5s and 5c.

post #24 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post
 

That's because iPhone 5 did not have that glorious gold that has so many 5s buyers waiting for!!...though probably silver is in a decent 2nd place.  Not to insult the space gray lovers, but....why?!

 

black 5s in the new apple brown leather case is a sweet combo.  You don't like the space gray I take it?

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post #25 of 35
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Originally Posted by dugbug View Post
 

 

black 5s in the new apple brown leather case is a sweet combo.  You don't like the space gray I take it?

Don't get me wrong, all three are elegant/classy color schemes.  I was just speculating on why there may still be gray/black 5s iPhones in stock.  Would be nice if there was one more black-schemed color option (since there are 2 white ones)...maybe a crimson or dark purple one?

 

I'm surprised how important color is as a "feature", case in point, the 5c advertisements.

post #26 of 35

Availability seems unimportant compared to sales volume and it's not like we'll know that until January.  Actually just two weeks since the release availability seems bad unless production is higher than last year.  4.3 million a week last year so that seems like the number to beat. 

post #27 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Availability seems unimportant compared to sales volume and it's not like we'll know that until January.  Actually just two weeks since the release availability seems bad unless production is higher than last year.  4.3 million a week last year so that seems like the number to beat. 

Considering they sold 9 MM 5Cs/5Ss over the first weekend compared to last year's 5 MM, I'd say production ramped up well. And before say they has two new iPhones, I highly doubt the split was 50/50. I think it's more likely 70/30 in favor if the flagship 5S.
post #28 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Considering they sold 9 MM 5Cs/5Ss over the first weekend compared to last year's 5 MM, I'd say production ramped up well. And before say they has two new iPhones, I highly doubt the split was 50/50. I think it's more likely 70/30 in favor if the flagship 5S.

 

Did I say anything at all about the split?  Probably more like 3 to 1, but what does that have to do with continuing sales volume?

 

As for 9 million versus 5 million, they also included China and Australia in the initial release which were good for 3 million phones in their opening weekends so it's more like 9 versus 8 if you want to compare apples to apples.  Looking at just the 5S to the 5 my guess is they sold more of the 5 if you just look at opening weekends in all the respective countries involved, but the 5C bumped this year's number up.

 

The point is increased availability by itself means very little since it could be from increased production or it could be from declining demand.  One is good the other is bad.  Octobers earnings call should make it pretty clear which it is.  The action on the stock price is telling me experts think it is weaker than expected demand.

post #29 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Did I say anything at all about the split?  Probably more like 3 to 1, but what does that have to do with continuing sales volume?

As for 9 million versus 5 million, they also included China and Australia in the initial release which were good for 3 million phones in their opening weekends so it's more like 9 versus 8 if you want to compare apples to apples.  Looking at just the 5S to the 5 my guess is they sold more of the 5 if you just look at opening weekends in all the respective countries involved, but the 5C bumped this year's number up.

The point is increased availability by itself means very little since it could be from increased production or it could be from declining demand.  One is good the other is bad.  Octobers earnings call should make it pretty clear which it is.  The action on the stock price is telling me experts think it is weaker than expected demand.

Your comparison isn't really accurate.

iPhone 5 sales were severely limited by availability. Even if they had launched China and Australia on the same day as the US, they didn't have any more phones to sell, so 5 M would have still been the number - just spread around differently. So 9 M available for sale on launch weekend is clearly a major improvement over 5 M available on launch weekend. Launch weekend sales are equal to the number available - they sold them all (even the 5C was showing with some shipping delays on the Apple Store).

The article is correct - they had lots more available on launch weekend than last year.

If you want do do it your way, you'd have to count the 9 M available on launch weekend, plus the number sold on several subsequent weekends after continuing a few more weeks of manufacturing.
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post #30 of 35

Still no 5s iPhones in the Seattle area as well as many or other areas...  Not in the Apple stores...  Went there again this morning...   Zero...  Asked them point blank if they had gotten any this last week...  Answer, only a couple...  Nothing has been available to sell...

 

Went to AT&T, they had nothing & said they would not be getting any 5's till sometime November...

 

Went to Best Buy, they had nothing as well...

 

I went to Apple online store and checked for 5s to pick up at the local Apple stone and they had nothing anywhere....

 

I went on Apple online store to purchase to send to my home and they would only commit to a Oct 31 delivery date... 

 

Clearly Apple has serious production problems with 5s.............

post #31 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


Your comparison isn't really accurate.

iPhone 5 sales were severely limited by availability. Even if they had launched China and Australia on the same day as the US, they didn't have any more phones to sell, so 5 M would have still been the number - just spread around differently. So 9 M available for sale on launch weekend is clearly a major improvement over 5 M available on launch weekend. Launch weekend sales are equal to the number available - they sold them all (even the 5C was showing with some shipping delays on the Apple Store).

The article is correct - they had lots more available on launch weekend than last year.

If you want do do it your way, you'd have to count the 9 M available on launch weekend, plus the number sold on several subsequent weekends after continuing a few more weeks of manufacturing.

 

 I believe you are suggesting they are able to produce the newer phones faster than last years model so availability should be better this year.   Well, we'll find out in 2 weeks whether demand after the initial launch is stronger this year than last year.  Guidance should make that fairly clear.

post #32 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

 I believe you are suggesting they are able to produce the newer phones faster than last years model so availability should be better this year.   Well, we'll find out in 2 weeks whether demand after the initial launch is stronger this year than last year.  Guidance should make that fairly clear.

I'm not suggesting anything. I'm stating a fact.

Last year, they sold 5 M phones on launch weekend. They sold everyone they had - it was just about impossible to find an iPhone 5 anywhere.

This year, they sold 9 M phones on launch weekend and there were some in stock after that (mostly 5C, but a few 5S).

It's pretty obvious that the supply was better this year. Now, I don't know if they were producing them faster or simply started production earlier, but they had more phones to ship for whatever reason.
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post #33 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


I'm not suggesting anything. I'm stating a fact.

Last year, they sold 5 M phones on launch weekend. They sold everyone they had - it was just about impossible to find an iPhone 5 anywhere.

This year, they sold 9 M phones on launch weekend and there were some in stock after that (mostly 5C, but a few 5S).

It's pretty obvious that the supply was better this year. Now, I don't know if they were producing them faster or simply started production earlier, but they had more phones to ship for whatever reason.

 

I will spell out the thought process since my point, and the point of the article, is about addressing current availability of the phone compared to last year .  Obviously if they started production sooner, and arent producing at faster rate, having availability sooner than last year would equal bad times for the holiday quarter since they are already releasing to every market available.  That is so obvious having to write it makes me feel dumber, but this is the internet and assuming people can make logical assumptions is dangerous.  So once again, to take this in a positive vein they would have be producing phones faster than last year, not that they simply started producing the phones sooner.  Of course that assumes availability is already better....which was the article's point.

post #34 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

I will spell out the thought process since my point, and the point of the article, is about addressing current availability of the phone compared to last year .  Obviously if they started production sooner, and arent producing at faster rate, having availability sooner than last year would equal bad times for the holiday quarter since they are already releasing to every market available.  That is so obvious having to write it makes me feel dumber, but this is the internet and assuming people can make logical assumptions is dangerous.  So once again, to take this in a positive vein they would have be producing phones faster than last year, not that they simply started producing the phones sooner.  Of course that assumes availability is already better....which was the article's point.

Why does anyone care?

They were grossly limited by availability last year. They sold almost twice as many phones this year. Every report says that they're replenishing the 5S on a nearly daily basis.

So speculate all you want. The fact is that this was a far better launch than last year.
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post #35 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post
 

 

 Obviously if they started production sooner, and arent producing at faster rate, having availability sooner than last year would equal bad times for the holiday quarter since they are already releasing to every market available. 

Yes and no.  Even if production rate is not quite keeping up with demand, it's not all bad news.  Most consumers would just wait a bit longer so pent up demand would increase...resulting in stronger, sustained product flow.

 

But my guess is that production rate is faster than the past...though again, not fast enough to meet (this years increased) launch-time demand.

 

It's not an easy task <read: impossible> to develop a cost effective supply chain that meets ridiculously high launch-time demand AND the lower, sustained annual demand.  Tim probably made decision to balance those 2 run rates.

 

Bottom line: annual sales will be meet/beat expectations.  PE SHOULD be closer to 16!

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