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Apple predicted to sell as many as 10M 'iWatches' in first year

post #1 of 65
Thread Starter 
A new poll suggests that as many as 4 percent of iPhone owners would be early adopters of a so-called Apple "iWatch," positioning the company to sell up to 10 million in its first year of availability.

Wearable Device
AppleInsider was first to discover an Apple patent filing describing a watch design with flexible display.


Investment firm Piper Jaffray surveyed 799 U.S. consumers about Apple?s rumored wrist-worn device and concluded that an ?iWatch" could have a penetration rate of between 2 and 4 percent among iPhone owners. With an estimated user base of 293 million iPhone owners, that would translate to between 5 million and 10 million sales in the first year, analyst Gene Munster said.

"While we do not view the watch as a likely needle-mover for Apple in terms of revenue in 2014, we put it in a similar category as the television in that it could demonstrate Apple?s ability to innovate (good for the multiple) and potentially lead to a more meaningful new product category in wearable tech," Munster wrote.

Munster?s survey asked respondents whether they would buy an iPhone-connected ?iWatch" at a price of $350. Among those polled, 12 percent said they would be interested in an Apple wrist watch at that price, while 88 percent said they would not.

But Munster noted that U.S. consumers are wealthier than the average international iPhone owner. And many consumers who are interested in a product may not actually buy it, leading him to conservatively push his estimated adoption rate downward.

iWatch
Artist's rendition of purported Apple smartwatch. | Source: Yrving Torrealba


If Apple were to sell 7.5 million ?iWatches? in the first year ? the midpoint of Munster?s prediction ? at a price of $350 with 30 percent gross margin, it would lead to an additional $2.6 billion in revenue and $790 million in profit in 2014. Those numbers would add 1 percent to Piper Jaffray?s forecasts for the year.

Munster?s prediction is much lower than analyst Wang Wanil of CIMB Securities Limited, who forecast in August that Apple would ship nearly 65 million ?iWatch" units priced at $199 in the device?s first year. That would be well above the 14.8 million iPads Apple sold in that product?s first month, though the iPad carried an entry price of $499.

Rumors have suggested Apple could be eyeing the launch of a new wearable device next year, featuring a 1.5- or 2-inch touchscreen panel. It?s been claimed the new product will focus on biometrics, offering users feedback on health and activity by acting as a pedometer, heart rate monitor, and possibly more.
post #2 of 65
Never going to happen. It's all a smoke screen!
post #3 of 65

Headline on 17-Jun-2014 - "Apple sells 10M iWatches, analysts predicted 5M.  Apple fails again."

post #4 of 65

iWatch with interest ;)

 

 

Sorry

post #5 of 65
Oh it's going to happen but these predictions are meaningless.
In order to accurately gauge interst you would need to know.
1 what it actually looks like
2 what it actually does
3 what it actually costs
post #6 of 65
I can see why his predictions stink. He pulls ideas out of his arse.

If/when Apple releases an iWatch, I'm sure it'll sell well. But how do you predict sales for a rumored product, one with ZERO product leaks at this time??
post #7 of 65
I think Apple will at least sell 12M iWatches. Mark my word!
post #8 of 65

Apple predicted to sell as many as 30M iDildos.

Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #9 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

Oh it's going to happen but these predictions are meaningless.
In order to accurately gauge interst you would need to know.
1 what it actually looks like
2 what it actually does
3 what it actually costs

 

Could not agree more.

 

If it has the same connotation as wearing a calculator on you belt mid to late 1970's that number is going to be low. If it provides lots of biometrics that can be gathered via an M7 altar low power device and then provides good reports by analyzing that data ~realtime then the adoption rate goes up but if the price is close to $400 then I think it will be very slow to adopt. $250-$275 is probably a reasonable experimenters price -- but still AppleTV like adoptions at first.

 

The other thing (and I am sure with Apple this wouldn't happen) is they can't make it look like a smartphone duct taped to your wrist - that Scamsung thing is HUGE.

post #10 of 65
no wait, it was 65 Million only a month ago: http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/08/28/apple-projected-to-ship-nearly-65m-iwatch-units-priced-at-199-in-first-year

dude, that's a hell of a negative trend: Apple is doomed by the time it finally will release iWatch.

*woof*
post #11 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post
 

Apple predicted to sell as many as 30M iDildos.

 

Yeah but they would never be able to get a patent because of prior art (Steely Dan in "Naked Lunch" by William S. Burroughs).

post #12 of 65

Apple should thank Samsung for the Gear and showing everyone how NOT to do a smartwatch.

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post #13 of 65
Quote: "Wang Wanil of CIMB Securities Limited, who forecast in August that Apple would ship nearly 65 million iWatch units priced at $199 in the device's first year. That would be well above the 14.8 million iPads Apple sold in that product's first month, though the iPad carried an entry price of $499."

14.8 million iPads in the 1st month? I don't think so. !st year probably.
post #14 of 65
Calculating iWatch sales, analyst style:

2 hands on watch. 12 numbers:
2x12= 24

24 hours in day:
24x24=576

60 minutes in an hour:
60x576=34,560

60 seconds in a minute:
60x34,560=2,073,600

30 days in a month:
30x2,073,600=62,208,000

62 million!
post #15 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

Oh it's going to happen but these predictions are meaningless.
In order to accurately gauge interst you would need to know.
1 what it actually looks like
2 what it actually does
3 what it actually costs

Even if an analyst came out with "Assuming its features include yada, yada, yada and starting price comes n under blah blah we believe Apple could sell x-many" I could get behind such a statement.
post #16 of 65

and my thought... much like every computer, and phone Apple makes (it almost has to with NTP and GPS requirements... it's got to have an accurate (more than you or I want it to be) timepiece on the inside), the next personal thing Apple makes will display the time.   

 

But I doubt it's a watch.   It may be worn on the wrist, but it's not a watch.

Note:  10 million thingees now... in Apple's portfolio, is almost non-news.  Especially at  $199 or less price point.

 

so, to maintain a $199 price point, and have a target market equal to that of the world wide consumers of smart phones, or computers, or iPods...  what problem does it need to solve to make it worth while to someone who has $200 free cash in their pocket.  In otherwords, can it 'do a job' that is worth more than $200 to the consumer.

 

I first think of health.  and not a super pedometer like a FuelBand.  No, this has to do more for the people who walk because they have to, not because they have time to put on lululemon clothing and $125 Nike Shoes.    Heart rate, bloodpressure, bloodsugar, AS A MINIMUM monitor.  Metabolism monitoring (kCal expenditure) would be nice too, but a 2nd tier, as is medication reminders, and crisis detection (I'VE FALLEN AND I CAN'T GET UP!").   Wifi/BT/tethered to another iDevice or local WiFi.  Telemetry uploaded to an iHealth account.

 

The only other thing is 'finance.'  (TouchID on a watch... or better, your Heart Twave as a biometric).  No need to fish for a phone.   Touch your watch and buy.  

 

Even the latter doesn't sound like a $199 value.   But when 'proof of wellness' is a requirement of your health plan (The $199 is an approved HSA/insurance expense, because health care providers will be dinged if someone gets diabetes on their watch (no pun intended)), then it's like printing money.   Helicopter (hovering) health obsessed parents will be buying them for their kids at birth (gotta monitor their blood sugar, incase grandma poisons them with frosted flakes)

 

'Watch.'    Not so much.   that job is solved.

post #17 of 65

Why is it that whenever an ANALyst predicts an iWatch I visualize Jim Carrey talking out of his ass in Ace Ventura?

post #18 of 65
An unannounced product is getting sales and profit projections from analysts that are lost now that the iPhones. What parts of this unannounced product are in short supply that is going to limit the sales because Mr. Cook can not manage the supply chain?
post #19 of 65
Unless it costs less than the cheapest current gen iPod touch, I pass. Love apple but a $300 watch? If they want to sell these things cut that in half. Otherwise its adoption rate will be on par with google glasses.

They did right by the first iPad, continue with that aggressive price scheme and these will sell like bottled water in hell
post #20 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post
 

Apple predicted to sell as many as 30M iDildos.

 

You can already buy a prodcut such as this: 

http://www.ohmibod.com/wired-vibrators/ohmibod.php

post #21 of 65
If and when Apple does comes out with an iWatch it unfortunately won't be a surprise. The watch casing will get leaked, the screen will get leaked, the watchband(s), will get leaked, the internals, the button(s), etc. All leaked.

I miss the days of being genuinely surprised...
post #22 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by racingbull View Post

no wait, it was 65 Million only a month ago: http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/08/28/apple-projected-to-ship-nearly-65m-iwatch-units-priced-at-199-in-first-year

dude, that's a hell of a negative trend: Apple is doomed by the time it finally will release iWatch.

*woof*

Exactly. There's absolutely no basis for the 65 M number, nor is there any basis for the 10 M number. They're both clearly fabricated from thin air.

The correct number for today is 0. There is no product and no announcement that there will be a product. It's ridiculous to even speculate on such a thing.

Of course, we could have some fun with it:

When Apple begins its space flights to Mars, they will have 20,000 customers per year.

When Apple introduces sexbots, they will sell 14 M the first year (with availability surely limited by supply of the eyeball units which require special handling). CPU will be an A17 manufactured by Samsung.

When Apple introduces their own sitcom, they will have 42 M viewers each week.

And so on.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #23 of 65
Analysts start releasing projections of iWatch units predicted to sell from 10M units in first year! Only Apple analysts can conjure this kind of speculation.

I mean Apple clearly has it's product timeline in place but with nothing more than patent filings and lousy sales data of existing market watches this is nothing more than hot air....
post #24 of 65
I predict the iWatch:

May or may not have a screen
May or may not be worn on the wrist
May or may not be released
post #25 of 65

It is all BS, I think it is another attempt by some idiots to manipulate apple stock. they will use this and means to drive up or down the stock value based on what they think will make them the most money. It was like the whole TV thing apple was supposedly making.

post #26 of 65
TheOtherGeoff brings up a good point. If it's an insurance/FSA/HSA expense- that would be brilliant. Talk about moving product...

I like talking about what the product could be- what they could do with an iwatch, the next Apple TV, the next iPhone, etc. Predictions of volume on an unannounced speculation is beyond ridiculous.

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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post #27 of 65
Oh, I don't know about this. A lot of young adults I know have abandoned watches and just use their phone. Apple is going to have to sell them on watches before it sells them iWatches. They may take a pass, particularly if iWatches are regarded as nerdy.

The watch-wearing among us have other issues. As a member of an older generation, I'd add that the last thing I want to fuss with it another gadget to deal with each day. And yes, an iWatch is replacing that watch I do wear. But that watch goes years between batteries. This iWatch is, at best, likely to go a few months or, at worst, become yet another gadget to be recharged.

Mobile technology is getting impacted by a fatigue factor. Too many gadgets waste time and energy rather than save it. If the iWatch only saves us the bother of pulling a phone out of our pockets, it's going to have the popularity of always worn Bluetooth headsets.
post #28 of 65

Gene is rapidly losing any credibility.  He has not been adding any real value in his analysis.  It is pure speculative crap 

Windows survivor - after a long, epic and painful struggle. Very long AAPL

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Windows survivor - after a long, epic and painful struggle. Very long AAPL

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post #29 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by EricTheHalfBee View Post
 

Apple should thank Samsung for the Gear and showing everyone how NOT to do a smartwatch.

 

Oh, Samsung knows that their abysmal effort won't get them any sales; it wasn't meant to because it's a legal strategy, not a marketing one.

 

If/when Apple releases a smart watch then Samsung will release a copy. If/when Apple sues then Samsung will point to their first-gen piece of crap and say, 'But we were here first!'

 

It's a placeholder, nothing more. No one at Samsung believes it's any good, and they don't care. The real one comes after the Apple model.

post #30 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

Oh it's going to happen but these predictions are meaningless.
In order to accurately gauge interst you would need to know.
1 what it actually looks like
2 what it actually does
3 what it actually costs

 

It's unbelievable. How can you project sales numbers of a product you have no idea what is. I think there is a huge potential in a wearable device that can measure all sorts of body functions. Not only might it be of great benefit for the wearer but also might reduce health care costs by huge sums of money. The question is - is the technology there yet? There is no way Apple will bring out a niche product which an iWatch as we (imagine) we understand it today is. I think we may be a couple of years away.

post #31 of 65
Could this be ANOTHER unsupported prediction based upon erroneous research?
Some analysts%u2019 inputs need to be questioned before taking them seriously!!!!
http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/25/gene-munsters-iphone-launch-estimates-off-by-5m-units-for-the-second-year-in-a-row
Gene, please admit your mistakes, apologize, learn from your errors to improve the accuracy of your reporting or simply go away. You are adding to the noise that diminishes the stock value of a quality company. I shall recall the link to this article and continue to publish this comment when I feel it is appropriate. 9/25/2013
post #32 of 65

Really, this is all so lame and pointless.  The "poll" (for starters) did not suggest "that as many as 4 percent of iPhone owners would be early adopters".   Munster, an analyst (which I hope by itself is enough of a pejorative), "suggested" that number based on his own fantasies.

 

And my own fantasies are that Apple is really not so stupid as to put out something as nerdy and gimmicky as this "iWatch" thing.  Maybe if Samsung or some other bottom feeder would license the Rolex brand name they could sell enough to the extremely gullible.  But such an item would either be too small to be actually useful -- whether tethered to a larger iOS device or not -- or so big and clunky as to question why it is necessary at all, when a velcro wrist strap taped to your iPhone could do the job just as well.

post #33 of 65
...i"watch" is also a verb

with a recent hire to support that theory:

http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/Apple-Hires-CableLabs-Exec-for-Something-Big-126081
post #34 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

It's unbelievable. How can you project sales numbers of a product you have no idea what is. I think there is a huge potential in a wearable device that can measure all sorts of body functions. Not only might it be of great benefit for the wearer but also might reduce health care costs by huge sums of money.

I don't think anything is going to reduce healthcare costs short of a cure for every cancer. What's the incentive? A watch certainly wouldn't reduce costs by "a huge amount." IMO.
melior diabolus quem scies
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post #35 of 65

Article about the new Galaxy Gear Tv ads, with youtube video embedded:

http://techcrunch.com/2013/10/06/samsungs-galaxy-gear-ads-show-a-dated-device-not-a-futuristic-one/

post #36 of 65

Even if it is true, I will never buy one, and I love my Apple products. I really think it is a way for Apple to drive Samsung crazy.

post #37 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by William Bowden View Post

iWatch with interest 1wink.gif


Sorry
Ahh but it was funny!
post #38 of 65

I could be bothered to give a damn about some of this if the guy doing the analyzing/speculating wasn't so full-tilt clueless, off his rocker and outright wrong about everything he analyzes and speculates about.

 

I honestly don't know how - or why - some of these people have jobs. I admit, I'm a bit jealous...it must be great to rake in such a healthy income from being wrong way more than being right. In what other field/industry is that the norm?

 

"My supply checks and analysis tell me that the sky is going to be green tomorrow..." = fired, instantly.

 

"My supply checks - on nonexistent parts for unconfirmed tech, by people who are equally clueless in the matter - lead me to believe Apple is looking to make a strong entry into the waffle iron sector, within the next 2-9 years. Prices will start at $129 and possibly top out at $799 (because that's the number that just popped into my head as I was looking out the window). However, if they don't release an iron for $29, off contract, to developing, underrepresented markets, it will spell certain doom, and I predict the reign of Apple is going to come crashing to an end within 2-5 decades." - Praised, "respected" (and listened to?!?) analyst jackoff.

 

This guy couldn't find it with two hands and a flashlight. I don't know why his thoughts on anything are reported, let alone viewed as any sort of solid analysis or a "glimpse of the future".

 

I'm pretty sure that's about all that needs to be said on the matter. :)


Edited by pscates - 10/7/13 at 7:45am
post #39 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


I don't think anything is going to reduce healthcare costs short of a cure for every cancer. What's the incentive? A watch certainly wouldn't reduce costs by "a huge amount." IMO.

A future device will be able to take a large number of readings and automatically, or semi automatically, communicate with a GP who can make changes or suggest changes to medication, or make diagnosis', without the patient needing to be seen in person. Early detection of problems will also save money. I guess saving huge amounts is overly optimistic, but this kind of technology may help slow increasing costs of healthcare for an ageing population significantly.

post #40 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by murman View Post

Article about the new Galaxy Gear Tv ads, with youtube video embedded:
http://techcrunch.com/2013/10/06/samsungs-galaxy-gear-ads-show-a-dated-device-not-a-futuristic-one/

I saw those Gear commercials as well. It was neat until they showed the Gear itself. The unaligned screw heads still piss me off. That and Sammy didn't give me a reason to get one.
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