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iPhone 5s supply declining in US while Apple's iPhone 5c remains fully stocked

post #1 of 36
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Three weeks after the latest iPhones went on sale in the U.S., availability of the iPhone 5s has actually declined while Apple prepares for greater international roll-out.

iPhone 5s


Analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has been checking inventory levels of the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c since they went on sale Sept. 21. In a note to investors provided to AppleInsider on Friday, he indicated that supply of the iPhone 5s went from 27 percent availability two weeks ago to 6 percent over the past week, based on a check of 60 Apple stores.

In addition, the number of stores that had at least one iPhone 5s SKU available dropped from 90 percent two weeks ago to 40 percent over the past week. Munster believes the shrinking supply is probably a result of Apple preparing for an international launch, with 51 new markets set to receive both the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c by Nov. 1.Resale value of the iPhone 5s is currently 32% above market value in the U.S.

In another sign of demand, Munster has also been tracking resale value, and found that the entry-level 16-gigabyte iPhone 5s is currently selling at a 32 percent premium in the U.S.

The story is different for the iPhone 5c, which is selling at an 11 percent discount over its retail price. Munster's checks also found that the iPhone 5c remains well-stocked, and he expects that demand for the mid-level handset is about in-line with market expectations.

In comparison, Samsung's flagship Galaxy S4 currently sells for a 12 percent discount in the U.S., putting it about on par with Apple's iPhone 5c.

"We expect iPhone aftermarket prices should decrease as 5S supply catches up to demand and would consider the 5S fully stocked when the 5S is available to ship in a 24 hour lead time," Munster wrote.. Currently Apple's online store quotes iPhone 5S October lead times in Apple's 6 largest countries, and 24 hours for the 5C."
post #2 of 36
Here we go again. Now in from Piper Jaffray - supply chain checks point to iPhone 5c having no demand. Apple cutting production in half!........
post #3 of 36
If anal ists is that good to check their anal , they should know what is the new wow thing from Apple this fall . So far , no parts of it has been leaked .
post #4 of 36
I can't speak for the 5c, but I missed my window in the NYC market last week Monday, where just about all the Apple Stores had the grey, (and to a lesser extent, the white) models in stock. Since last Tuesday morning, supply has been dismal.

Here's a handy site that scrapes Apple's online store for availability based on color, capacity, carrier and zip code, in case anyone is interested.

http://iphone-check.herokuapp.com
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post #5 of 36

I've bought two iPhone 5s' in the last couple of weeks, a white 32GB and a grey 32GB. Neither were in stock at my local AT&T store, but both shipped the next day and were received the same week. I understand that the gold model's availability is much more limited.

post #6 of 36
Hardly a suprise, the 5c will be cheaper and easier to produce due to the plastic casing and year old tech.

Plus it's comparatively a very poor deal against the 5s so I'd imagine a lot more people want the iPhone 5s.

I wonder what the sales split is between the 4s and 5c, that'd be an interesting chart.
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post #7 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Three weeks after the latest iPhones went on sale in the U.S., availability of the iPhone 5s has actually declined while Apple prepares for greater international roll-out.

Analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has been checking inventory levels of the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c since they went on sale Sept. 21. In a note to investors provided to AppleInsider on Friday, he indicated that supply of the iPhone 5s went from 27 percent availability two weeks ago to 6 percent over the past week, based on a check of 60 Apple stores.


Wait a second. The story last month was that Apple's numbers were exaggerated because they stuffed the channels with both models. But if the 5S only had a 27% availability, where were all the phones that got stuffed into the channels?

If his numbers are accurate, it's pretty good news - and says that they're continuing to sell them at a rapid clip.
Edited by jragosta - 10/12/13 at 5:00am
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post #8 of 36

So the 5C is selling at the same premium as the so called iPhone killer the S4?  That's great news when Apple's 2nd tier phone can beat the competitions flagship.

 

ANAL-lysts will say whatever benefits them:

 

iPhone C fully stocked = No demand, weak sales

iPhone C sold out = supply constraints, canibalizing 5S sales, lower margins

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post #9 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

iPhone C sold out = supply constraints, canibalizing 5S sales, lower margins

 

Did you read that somewhere?

 

I'd be interested to see the article.

 

[never mind... I see where you're going with this.]


Edited by island hermit - 10/11/13 at 6:42am
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post #10 of 36
still waiting for my 64G 5S order from Apple Online Store to be processed (Stuck in the processing order status for the past week). sigh.
post #11 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


Wait a second. The story last month was that Apple's numbers were exaggerated because they stuffed the channels with both models. But if the 5S only had a 27% availability, where were all the phones that got stuffed into the channels?

If his numbers are accurate, it's pretty good news - and says that they're continuing to sell them at a rapid clip.

There was no suggestion of channel stuffing the 5s, that sold out - all inventory that went into the channel was sold on to end customers so the 'shipped' and 'sold' figures are one in the same. The channel stuffing suggestion was all around the 5c.

post #12 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Hardly a suprise, the 5c will be cheaper and easier to produce due to the plastic casing and year old tech.

Plus it's comparatively a very poor deal against the 5s so I'd imagine a lot more people want the iPhone 5s.

I wonder what the sales split is between the 4s and 5c, that'd be an interesting chart.
Why is it "comparatively a very poor deal" compared to the 5S? Because the case is plastic? Would you say the same thing if Apple had kept the 5 and reduced it $100? Why do people keep banging on about "year old tech". The iPhone 5 is still a damn good phone.
post #13 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScartArt View Post

There was no suggestion of channel stuffing the 5s, that sold out - all inventory that went into the channel was sold on to end customers so the 'shipped' and 'sold' figures are one in the same. The channel stuffing suggestion was all around the 5c.
The channel stuffing was analysts refusing to admit their sales estimates were wrong. They predicted 6M, Apple announced 9M so the difference has to be channel stuffing. Because analysts can never be wrong and no one ever fact checks what they say or predict.
post #14 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMacadvocate View Post

I can't speak for the 5c, but I missed my window in the NYC market last week Monday, where just about all the Apple Stores had the grey, (and to a lesser extent, the white) models in stock. Since last Tuesday morning, supply has been dismal.

Here's a handy site that scrapes Apple's online store for availability based on color, capacity, carrier and zip code, in case anyone is interested.

http://iphone-check.herokuapp.com

I'll bet this is from where the analyst is pulling his numbers, and then passing it off with fancy language like 'channel checks.'
post #15 of 36
oh no, Apple is doomed as they sell millions more of the expensive 5s devices. Steve Jobs would never let this happens, Tim Cook should be fired, blah, blah, blah.
post #16 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Why is it "comparatively a very poor deal" compared to the 5S? Because the case is plastic? Would you say the same thing if Apple had kept the 5 and reduced it $100? Why do people keep banging on about "year old tech". The iPhone 5 is still a damn good phone.
 

The fact that the iPhone 5c has good overall performance does not change the fact that it's year old tech and therefore cheaper and easier to produce.

 

I've frequently said that I feel the iPhone 5c should be $50 less to reflect the cheaper case, however that's by the by.

 

For $100 you get a LOT more for your money, from the fingerprint scanner through to the 64bit CPU the device is a far superior.

 

Now admittedly, for the here and now one could argue that the 5c is fast enough. But, in two years time when iOS 9 ships I can guarantee that the 64bit CPU in the 5s will make one hell of a difference.

 

There is nothing wrong with the 5c, it’s a solid little phone and I am sure it will make many people very happy. Usually I find that the middle option within Apple’s product lines offer the best overall value, but in this case, at least to my mind I feel it is overpriced and poor value compared to the 4s and the 5s in terms of the line up.

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post #17 of 36
Still can't stand Gene Munster. But this once again (as well as the story that came out yesterday about Apple cutting production in half) adds more fuel to the fire that he was right about the launch weekend numbers and that despite all the screaming and yelling here the stock market may have go it right.

I'm amazed to see people posting here who STILL don't understand what was said and the significance of it. Munster never used the term channel stuffing and I don't believe he insinuated it either. He was trying to point out that any comparison between iPhone 5 launch numbers and combined iPhone 5C/5S (the magic 9 million) number wasn't valid because in his view, 3.5 million 5C units were not 'sold through', ie. actually paid for by an end customer, whereas all the iPhone 5 units were sold-through in the launch for that product.
post #18 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post

Still can't stand Gene Munster. But this once again (as well as the story that came out yesterday about Apple cutting production in half) adds more fuel to the fire that he was right about the launch weekend numbers and that despite all the screaming and yelling here the stock market may have go it right.

I'm amazed to see people posting here who STILL don't understand what was said and the significance of it. Munster never used the term channel stuffing and I don't believe he insinuated it either. He was trying to point out that any comparison between iPhone 5 launch numbers and combined iPhone 5C/5S (the magic 9 million) number wasn't valid because in his view, 3.5 million 5C units were not 'sold through', ie. actually paid for by an end customer, whereas all the iPhone 5 units were sold-through in the launch for that product.

 

Munster has ZERO EVIDENCE that there were 3.5 million phones unsold. ZERO.  He totally pulled that out of his ass.

 

But just so happens the 3.5 million number brings it back to his estimate of 6 million.  Can you not connect the dots?  The guy is covering his ass for being MASSIVELY WRONG again.

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post #19 of 36
Apple 5s availability near 0 on the whole west coast for over a week... You can go online to Apple.com to get this data by store anytime... I have been checking this about 5 times a day & repeated trips to the Apple store, AT&T store & Best Buy... This last week Best Buy received 2 presold 5s, AT&T received 5 silver 64 gig silvers... The local Apple store has large sign at the door that they have no 5s due to high demand... When I pointed out that Apple.com says they aren't getting them to sell, they agreed that this was the real issue... They are real frustrated too, they keep pushing people to 5C's, but they just walk back out the door... When we hear Apple is going to 50 new countries & there has been near zero in the US for weeks it appears Apple's management team is out of touch with their consumer base...
post #20 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScartArt View Post

There was no suggestion of channel stuffing the 5s, that sold out - all inventory that went into the channel was sold on to end customers so the 'shipped' and 'sold' figures are one in the same. The channel stuffing suggestion was all around the 5c.

Yet they are just guessing at this point. Who says Apple couldn't have sold 7 MM 5S on its first weekend?
post #21 of 36

First, how was 5c launch compared to last year's 4s sales?

 

Second I think 5c will be popular for the holidays year as the "new" model instead of last year's model.

post #22 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by winstein2010 View Post
 

First, how was 5c launch compared to last year's 4s sales?

 

Second I think 5c will be popular for the holidays year as the "new" model instead of last year's model.

 

Let's see if it hits $0 with a 2 year contract as a holiday promotion. Then it should be really popular as a gift for the younguns.

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post #23 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


The channel stuffing was analysts refusing to admit their sales estimates were wrong. They predicted 6M, Apple announced 9M so the difference has to be channel stuffing. Because analysts can never be wrong and no one ever fact checks what they say or predict.

correct, their premise is the extra 3M was made up of 5c phones sitting on shelves rather than there being any extra demand.

post #24 of 36
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


The channel stuffing was analysts refusing to admit their sales estimates were wrong. They predicted 6M, Apple announced 9M so the difference has to be channel stuffing. Because analysts can never be wrong and no one ever fact checks what they say or predictQuote:
Originally Posted by ScartArt View Post
 

correct, their premise is the extra 3M was made up of 5c phones sitting on shelves rather than there being any extra demand.

 

No, this is not correct.  You guys need to get your terminology correct.

 

Channel stuffing is the ILLEGAL PRACTICE of forcing your channels to take more product than they can sell, in order to report an artificially boosted sales number.  This is typically followed by high return rates.  If this has actually happened, Tim Cook might be going to jail.

 

 Nobody serious is suggesting this; all they are saying is that a large number of 5C units did not sell during the opening weekend.   That CHANNEL FILL amount needs to be subtracted from Apple's 9 million number in order to calculate the amount of units 'sold through' to customers.

post #25 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post
 

 

No, this is not correct.  You guys need to get your terminology correct.

 

Channel stuffing is the ILLEGAL PRACTICE of forcing your channels to take more product than they can sell, in order to report an artificially boosted sales number.  This is typically followed by high return rates.  If this has actually happened, Tim Cook might be going to jail.

 

 Nobody serious is suggesting this; all they are saying is that a large number of 5C units did not sell during the opening weekend.   That CHANNEL FILL amount needs to be subtracted from Apple's 9 million number in order to calculate the amount of units 'sold through' to customers.

 

and where the funk did he get his 3.5 million? 

Why not say 8 million?

Why not say Apple only sold 1 million phones?

WTF.  He gave ZERO proof where he got that number.  When Kramer interviewed Sprint the CEO said the 5C demand was strong.  The 5C was the #2 or #3 phone at all the major US carriers.  Total BS. 

 

Munster is just cover his ass.

Last year he said 10 million. He was off by 100%

This year he said 5 million. He was off by 80%

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post #26 of 36

All anyone really knows is demand for the 5S remains strong.  Of course whether it is stronger than the 5 last year depends on the production rate of the 5S.   Oct 18th should shed some light on that.

post #27 of 36

If Apple has a #1 hit product, the 5S, the internet trumpets declining 5C sales.

 

If the 5C is the number two phone on major US carriers, the internet tells you the 5C must be tanking in every other country.

 

If Apple rolls out the 5S internationally, the internet bemoans the availability of the 5S in the USA.

 

If the 5S sees staggering demand, the internet shouts at you about the world's hatred of the 5C.

 

If the 5C sells well in the US beating Sammy4, the internet wants you to know the 5C is not outselling the 5S!  (tsk tsk)

 

If retailers lower the price of the 5C LIKE ANALYSTS DEMANDED, they report this as a failure.

 

Analysts, bloggers, and others are like a bad parent to Apple.  "You can't do it!" "You'll never make it!" And then "Didn't I say you couldn't do it?"  "You only think you did it, but really you failed!"  "Everything you thought was good about yourself is bad!"

 

Apple needs good parents again.  "You can do it!"  "Good job, you accomplished your goal!"  "Hey you did better next time."  "Okay this didn't work out perfectly, so what can you change or improve for next time?"  "I believe in you."

 

Gene Munster is the wicked stepmother to Apple.

post #28 of 36

Anyone ordered a 5s recently? Whats the delivery time? Wifes 4s just stopped getting service.

post #29 of 36
Even Hong Kong can get 5c within 24 hours, rare for 'new' iPhone product as we normally need to wait for 3 months
post #30 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by mubaili View Post

still waiting for my 64G 5S order from Apple Online Store to be processed (Stuck in the processing order status for the past week). sigh.

 

Yeah, good luck with that.  I've had my 64G 5s on order from Apple's Online store since opening weekend (9/23) and it's still stuck in "processing".  They damn well better fulfill these outstanding orders before they begin selling in new markets.  There is definitely a supply issue going on that didn't exist to this extent with either the 4s or the 5 launch.

post #31 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by another_steve View Post

Yeah, good luck with that.  I've had my 64G 5s on order from Apple's Online store since opening weekend (9/23) and it's still stuck in "processing".  They damn well better fulfill these outstanding orders before they begin selling in new markets.  There is definitely a supply issue going on that didn't exist to this extent with either the 4s or the 5 launch.

You might want to see your physician. Your memory is apparently gone.

The iPhone 5 was in extremely short supply for a long, long time.
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post #32 of 36
Apple may have just proven once and for all that their market is almost exclusively a high-end market.

The bleeding-edge high-end models have been sold out since launch, with no end in sight.

The "lower tier" (what apple-bashers now refer to as "last year's model repackaged") isn't selling as well? Are we sure of that? And if not, are we surprised?

As far as I know, the iPhone 5 was the world's single best-selling smartphone handset of all time. No other single model from any other company (including Apple?) outsold it.

The iPhone 5c is that same handset, but in a different case and slightly upgraded. It's still a very relevant and desirable device. And yet%u2026

Apple has plentiful stock of it, and none of their 'flagship" device. People buy Apple's HIGH END first.

I wonder if the "Apple needs to be CHEAPER!" people will ever get this and stop demanding it from Apple?
post #33 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by tribalogical View Post

The "lower tier" (what apple-bashers now refer to as "last year's model repackaged") isn't selling as well? Are we sure of that? And if not, are we surprised?

 

Actually, that's what Apple's most vocal fans on here call it. Seriously.

 

I call it a new phone and they call it the 5 with a different skin.

 

I can show you the posts if you don't believe me.

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post #34 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Actually, that's what Apple's most vocal fans on here call it. Seriously.

I call it a new phone and they call it the 5 with a different skin.

I can show you the posts if you don't believe me.

Who cares?

It is essentially a repackaged iPhone 5. Yes, it has a few minor improvements, but the features are essentially identical other than the case.
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post #35 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


Who cares?

It is essentially a repackaged iPhone 5. Yes, it has a few minor improvements, but the features are essentially identical other than the case.

 

Who cares?

 

Well, you seem to care.

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post #36 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


You might want to see your physician. Your memory is apparently gone.

The iPhone 5 was in extremely short supply for a long, long time.

 

Is there a reason you have to be a douche with your reply?  Yes, overall, there were supply issues with every iPhone launch.  However, from my observations, if you wanted a higher end device (like a 64GB) model, you could typically get one.  As an example, I bought a 4s on the opening weekend (without waiting in lines).  I just walked in on a Sunday to the nearest carrier store and they had a few devices if you wanted the high end model.  Similar story with my wife's iPhone 5.  With the 5s, they appear to be even more scarce.  Considering that supply is nearly twice that of the iPhone 5 launch, that also suggests that demand for the 5s is higher (even when you factor in the launch in China).
 
Anyway, Apple has since sent me a note letting me know that they'll ship my device between 10/24 and 10/28.  Sorry, but I didn't have to wait like this for either the 4s or the 5.  My memory is perfectly fine in this regard anyway.
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