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Apple's iPhone 5c orders lower than expected, insider says - Page 3

post #81 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adrayven View Post

Ehhh? so sales are bad, but it's 2nd best selling phone in ATT/Sprint and 3rd best at Verizon and T-Mobile.. Beating out all but iPhone 5S and Galaxy S 4 at Verizon/Tmo.. and it's soft?

For a phone doing poorly, it's selling awfully well.. heh.. I think we have another case of Analysts setting expectations for failure.. again..

Exactly. The only actual facts out there indicate that the 5S and 5C have been selling quite well. Kuo's prediction is insane.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harmon View Post

I agree.  If Apple really wanted to move the 5c's (which apparently they do from all the advertising they have for them) the price should have been $49 w/ contract or $499 off contract to begin with.  $49 is much more in the impulse purchase range and would have garnered a lot more attention from the masses without killing Apple's margins.  

Yet the 5C is the second best selling phone in the US in September - even though it had only half a month while all the other phones were sold for the full month. Why would Apple cut the price further? And what expertise do you have that makes you better able to set prices and market strategies than Apple? How many multibillion dollar products have you produced?

Besides, if you're going to make that argument, you need to carry it to its conclusion. Since the 5C outsold every other phone except the 5S in September (US sales, major carriers), then by your logic EVERY OTHER PHONE MANUFACTURER on the planet needs to be cutting their price. In fact, they should be paying you to take a phone off their hands.
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

In any case although Kuo is the best analyst, he is saying - as already pointed out -  that Apple massively  overstuffed the channel with 10 million sold ( into channel ) in one week, and now only 11 million will sell into Christmas. 

Thats nuts.

It's even more nuts when you consider the rest of the story. The problem with Kuo's predictions is that they don't make sense. Apple sold 9 M phones the first weekend. Every estimate says that the 5S outsold the 5C by a wide margin, so there were perhaps 3 M 5C phones sold the first weekend. Even with less than 2 weeks on the market, the phone is one of the top sellers for every US carrier. Kuo is predicting 11 M sales for the month (which essentially means that sales will ACCELERATE after the first weekend) but then calls it a flop. And if Munster were correct and a lot of those first weekend sales were just filling the channel, then the acceleration at the end of the month is even greater. Then, Kuo predicted that sales (which were accelerating in September) fall off a cliff and they'll sell fewer phones in the 3 month Christmas quarter than in the first 10 days.

It's just a totally irrational prediction.
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

And Apple have a clear answer here. Replace the 4S with an 8G iPhone 5C ( even with a price increase). Nothing to worry about long term. Remember the original iPhone was overpriced. 

Why? They have a good, better, best strategy which appears to be working. The 'free' 4S is for the cheap bottom feeders. A price increase cuts out that group of customers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

I don't understand Apple's strategy with the 5c.

OK, so you don't understand their strategy. Let's put that in perspective:
Apple is, by far, the industry leader in terms of innovation and successful market positioning.
The 5C sold millions of units on launch and is the #2 phone for the month of Septermber at 3 of the 4 US carriers (#3 at the fourth) - even though it was only available for half the month.

I would say the problem is on your end, not Apple's.
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post #82 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post

Plastic not so fantastic.

Why get a Volkswagen when you can get a Mercedes for $100 more.

 

What a surprise - as I had originally predicted, Cook's obsession with analyst-driven crap leads to this. ZERO innovation and little price advantage over the great iPhone 5, even in emerging markets used to higher tariffs. 

 

Well deserved, if I may say.

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post #83 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

All that based on no data and two weeks of speculation?

Didn't the carriers release rankings?
post #84 of 181
What I've learn in my experience in graphic design, marketing and logo design, never use a letter to help brand your product. When you let people guess what the letter means, they will usually think the worst. "Cheap".
post #85 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by dillio View Post

So I guess if you see a big breaking news story you completely disregard it until all the reports are confirmed? 

YES. I remember that "Bigfoot in a freezer" story a few years ago: the press gathered around the scientists, and the "body" turned out to be a rubber and hair ape suit.

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post #86 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


Product tradition? What tradition? Use of color? Use of plastic? Going down-market? Apple has done all these thing before in mobile devices.

 

Oh, c'mon.

 

Let's go through it again. I'll even let you fill in the blanks:

 

Which phone became the mid-tier phone when the next generation was announced over the last few introductions?

 

Which phones in the mid tier were different than any phone made to that point?

 

Which mid-tier phones were advertised?


Edited by island hermit - 10/11/13 at 11:25am
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post #87 of 181
There is no mystery here. Many people on 2 year contracts were already upgrade eligible and didn't get a 5 because the 5S was on the way. They had already addressed any color issues with a case. I know I didn't pass on a iPhone5 for months just to get a iPhone5 with different cosmetics. I waited to get the BETTER PHONE for the 2 years I'd have it. The ONLY mystery is why Apple rolled out a flagship model by sending 60 units per store in neither of the colors people wanted (Hello, focus group?). For the record, the best looking model is the Silver.
post #88 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Didn't the carriers release rankings?

 

Yes... two week's worth.

 

The same two weeks that were used to base my opinions.

 

... and, the same two weeks that were used to base your opinions.

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post #89 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScartArt View Post

I guess that would depend if you are stupid enough to sign up to a really expensive plan. My daughter has a £7.50 per month plan and wants a 5c but not at £480.

Her iPhone 4 should have been good for another year or so but iOS 7 has turned that into something with all the responsiveness as a cheap Android phone. Will probably end up getting a second hand 4s or 5 from eBay once all the 5s upgraders have their new phones and the market becomes flooded.

I have a iPhone 4 running ios7. My wife has a iPhone 4 still on ios6. Mine runs fine, can't figure out what your problem is, maybe you need to clear some apps to free up some memory.
post #90 of 181
Well, obviously Ming-Chi needs to make better estimates. Are the orders less than what Apple estimated? To me, that's more important than what one analyst estimates.
post #91 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by heroinsmoker View Post
 

They should have upgraded the specs to be close to the 5S. No one is going to upgrade to a 5C if it isn't any better than a 5. If they wanted a 5 they would have gotten one already. This was one of the most idiotic product ideas I've ever seen at Apple. "We'll sell them last year's phone - but thicker and in plastic colors!" 

 

My wife and possibly my mom will - they each currently have iPhone 4 - and barely use it to its full potential - so getting a 5c for $50 and passing the 4 down to my nieces is a win for everyone. 

 

For me I replace my 4S with a 5S and my dad would likely benefit from the faster camera on the 5S to replace his 4 - then his 4 and my 4S can also be passed down the line. So instead of $1200or so for all four of us to get iPhone 5S - it would be more like two 5C units at $100 total and two 5S units - likely one base 16GB for dad and a 64GB for me = about $700 overall and everyone has something better than they have now - if only BestBuy hand't changed banks and closed my credit card due to no activity - now I gotta apply for a new card which shows up as a new credit inquiry and a new card with now history - and yes I often get items like that at BestBuy since the price is the same and the no interest means I don't have to pay it up front or pay interest over time plus reward points get some free stuff in the end. 

post #92 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post

What I've learn in my experience in graphic design, marketing and logo design, never use a letter to help brand your product. When you let people guess what the letter means, they will usually think the worst. "Cheap".

Like the BMW c-class?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MorganNY View Post

There is no mystery here. Many people on 2 year contracts were already upgrade eligible and didn't get a 5 because the 5S was on the way. They had already addressed any color issues with a case. I know I didn't pass on a iPhone5 for months just to get a iPhone5 with different cosmetics. I waited to get the BETTER PHONE for the 2 years I'd have it. The ONLY mystery is why Apple rolled out a flagship model by sending 60 units per store in neither of the colors people wanted (Hello, focus group?). For the record, the best looking model is the Silver.

So everyone had a 4S? Again the 5C isn't for us. It's for android/WinMob/BBRY/feature phone refugees and those who don't need the latest and greatest.
post #93 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Oh, c'mon.

Let's go through it again. I'll even let you fill in the blanks:

Which phone became the mid-tier phone when the next generation was announced over the last few introductions?

Which phones in the mid tier were different than any phone made to that point?

Which mid-tier phones were advertised?

The previous gen phones became mid-tier, and the generation before that became the bottom tier "free" phone.

The only difference is that they mounted the mid-tiered iPhone 5 inside colored plastic cases, and added a "c" to the name.

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post #94 of 181
I fully expect pricing on 5c will come down over the next few months (or be subject to Walmart style sales bursts).

However, the 5S will keep the margins up by staying barely (or completely) out of stock and never reducing in price.

the 5c/5s split seems likely to *increase* margins not lower them.
post #95 of 181
I'm not surprised. The colours are ghastly. Simply awful. Who'd want to be seen with a 5C at their ear or in their hand? It looks like a toy. Pink, light blue, _almost_ neon green? Not a chance. I suspect the white version would be the best selling of the bunch.
post #96 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkse View Post

I'm not surprised. The colours are ghastly. Simply awful. Who'd want to be seen with a 5C at their ear or in their hand? It looks like a toy. Pink, light blue, _almost_ neon green? Not a chance. I suspect the white version would be the best selling of the bunch.

Except the yellow one was reportedly the first to sell out on the Apple online store.

Who would want one? Enough people to make it the #2 phone for September at most US carriers.
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post #97 of 181
Cheap but not cheap enough.
post #98 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crosslad View Post


I have a iPhone 4 running ios7. My wife has a iPhone 4 still on ios6. Mine runs fine, can't figure out what your problem is, maybe you need to clear some apps to free up some memory.

It isn't just that one. Have a couple of friends that have the same issue and there are a lot of complaints on Apple's community forums. My 4s bogs down every now and then which it didn't do on iOS 6. My iPad 2 isn't too bad, although you close the cover and it takes about 3 seconds before you hear the lock sound.

 

Hopefully Apple will release an upgrade to improve performance on older devices.

post #99 of 181
The first and only 5c I've knowingly seen in the wild was green. And the guy who went and bought a 5c for me to use as a dev phone chose green. It actually looks quite nice in real life. I was not sure about the 5c colors when I first saw them but in real life they look better.
post #100 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


The actual price is not the subsidised American price.

I'm just talking about the US...I could careless about the rest of the world...Sorry to break your heart.

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post #101 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Yes... two week's worth.

The same two weeks that were used to base my opinions.

... and, the same two weeks that were used to base your opinions.

But carriers would have access to its own numbers. Analysts make it up as they go along.
post #102 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


The previous gen phones became mid-tier, and the generation before that became the bottom tier "free" phone.

The only difference is that they mounted the mid-tiered iPhone 5 inside colored plastic cases, and added a "c" to the name.

 

... and they are advertising the crap out of it.

 

Very good.

 

You've shown that you know it is 'different'. It does not 'look' like the 5 in any way. It is not being handled the same.

 

Hence... a different strategy.

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post #103 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


But carriers would have access to its own numbers. Analysts make it up as they go along.

 

I don't remember saying anything at all about analysts.

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post #104 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

11.4 mil. in 10 days.

10.4 mil. in 92 days.

Yep. Okay. Sure. Uh hu.

 

I think he is figuring that a significant percentage of those 11.4 mil are still in the third-party retail channel, and that these will be (re)sold to end customers and then replaced by a fraction of the 10.4 million more throughout the next quarter (again including some channel inventory at the end of the holiday Q).

 

Not saying I agree, mind you, but phrased that way doesn't make him look quite as much of a dunce as your interpretation.

post #105 of 181
This insider business is for the birds. He's an analyst whose guess is as good as any other analyst. Pick a straw. Lucky guess. I don't believe anyone EVER knows Apple's "inside" business, period.

I'm SICK and TIRED of the years of maligning Apple, the expectations of Apple and the manipulation of Apple stock.

Analysts should know by now they are a JOKE.
post #106 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


Correlation always equals causation?

Nope. That was speculation. Hence the "I think". Unlike analysts (and many commentators here) I don't claim my speculations to be the absolute truth. Just informed guesses.

post #107 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crosslad View Post


I have a iPhone 4 running ios7. My wife has a iPhone 4 still on ios6. Mine runs fine, can't figure out what your problem is, maybe you need to clear some apps to free up some memory.

Agreed. My iPhone 4 seems to be running much faster with iOS7 than iOS6 (the speed increase probably has more to do with the fact that it is a reinstall, but still, it is noticeable).

post #108 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

 Again the 5C isn't for us. It's for android/WinMob/BBRY/feature phone refugees and those who don't need the latest and greatest.

 

do you know what the unsubsidized price of the 5C is? If you consider that to be attractive to price-conscious buyers who are not already in Apple's ecosystem, you're very very wrong.

post #109 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkse View Post

I'm not surprised. The colours are ghastly. Simply awful. Who'd want to be seen with a 5C at their ear or in their hand? It looks like a toy. Pink, light blue, _almost_ neon green? Not a chance. I suspect the white version would be the best selling of the bunch.

 

Who?

 

- My daughter wants the pink one for Xmas.

- My other daughter wants the blue one.  

 

Not a chance?

 

The color selling out the most so far has been yellow (not white) although we don't know how many of each were made.

 

Different strokes, right?  There are a lot of folks out there that are different from each of us.  Beware extrapolating your own preferences.

 

Thompson

post #110 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post
 

I think you'll see the 'c' prominently displayed with '$50-$100' off sales during the holidays.   And we haven't seen China Mobile come online yet.   I do think that's the market this was targeted for.

 

 

 

Geoff, I'll grant you that with its 750 million odd customers, Apple is going to increase sales in China when they finally do a deal with China Mobile.  However, I don't think the 5c is a good fit for the Chinese market and in particular I think it's a bad fit for China Mobile.

 

China Mobile serves all the rural areas, where you're much more likely to see a $50 to $100 Coolpad, than a $725 phone (although I gather the pricing on the grey market is now down to $500 range).    

 

In the urban centres, the Porsche/Mercedes/Lamborghini crowd are not likely to buy the lower end 5C; they'll buy a Note 3 or a gold 5S and make sure they're seen with it (and the wife/girlfriend will have one in her Louis Vuitton bag)!   

 

Unless the wealthy kids find the 5c desirable, I just can't see a lot of people buying them.  

 

On the the other hand, the gold 5s is ideal for the Chinese market; too bad they couldn't have added a red or red/gold one too.

post #111 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertSmith View Post
 

 

do you know what the unsubsidized price of the 5C is? If you consider that to be attractive to price-conscious buyers who are not already in Apple's ecosystem, you're very very wrong.

There are a lot of people who will gladly purchase it on contract (subsidized) to save a $100.  These people don't need the latest and greatest, and they're also the type of people that would be more likely to take their time and purchase a few as Xmas gifts for kids as opposed to having to rush right out on the first month of launch.

 

This is going to play out slowly.

post #112 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertSmith View Post

do you know what the unsubsidized price of the 5C is? If you consider that to be attractive to price-conscious buyers who are not already in Apple's ecosystem, you're very very wrong.

Ha. Then who keeps buying the 4S and 4 over the last year and the 4 and 3GS during the year before that? Surely Apple fans aren't buying all 3 iPhone models during the same year.
post #113 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post

What I've learn in my experience in graphic design, marketing and logo design, never use a letter to help brand your product. When you let people guess what the letter means, they will usually think the worst. "Cheap".
So I guess in your world then the S in the 4S and 5S stands for shitty?
post #114 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post
 

 

Geoff, I'll grant you that with its 750 million odd customers, Apple is going to increase sales in China when they finally do a deal with China Mobile.  However, I don't think the 5c is a good fit for the Chinese market and in particular I think it's a bad fit for China Mobile.

 

China Mobile serves all the rural areas, where you're much more likely to see a $50 to $100 Coolpad, than a $725 phone (although I gather the pricing on the grey market is now down to $500 range).    

 

In the urban centres, the Porsche/Mercedes/Lamborghini crowd are not likely to buy the lower end 5C; they'll buy a Note 3 or a gold 5S and make sure they're seen with it (and the wife/girlfriend will have one in her Louis Vuitton bag)!   

 

Unless the wealthy kids find the 5c desirable, I just can't see a lot of people buying them.  

 

On the the other hand, the gold 5s is ideal for the Chinese market; too bad they couldn't have added a red or red/gold one too.

 

China Mobile is probably going to subsidize.  I know its unprecedented for that company, but the other Chinese carriers decided to subsidize iPhones, and this has most likely been one of Apple's "non-negotiable" requirements of the deal.

 

Thompson

post #115 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by dillio View Post

So I guess if you see a big breaking news story you completely disregard it until all the reports are confirmed? 

Only Apple knows how many 5C's were pushed into the channel and how many actually sold. Whatever anyone else reports is pure speculation. Lets see what Apple has to say on its conference call. No they won't give sales figures but they will give color around it and margins and ASPs will give us an indication on which model is selling better.
post #116 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post
 

 

I think he is figuring that a significant percentage of those 11.4 mil are still in the third-party retail channel, and that these will be (re)sold to end customers and then replaced by a fraction of the 10.4 million more throughout the next quarter (again including some channel inventory at the end of the holiday Q).

 

Not saying I agree, mind you, but phrased that way doesn't make him look quite as much of a dunce as your interpretation.

 

Yes... JamesMac alerted me to this as well.

 

Thank you.

 

[ 21.8 million units into the channel over 102 days. ]

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post #117 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Because the 5C is being discounted by many retailers?

See, e.g., http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/walmart-drops-price-phone-5c-45-best-buys/story?id=20474818
Wal Mart disounted it during pre sale. I don't think that means anything. If Best Buy discounts it than others will follow because they want you to buy it from them. Of course it's possible they're not selling as well as Apple had expected. But it's also possible they are meeting internal expectations and these analyst estimates are way off. We'll know more in a couple weeks.
post #118 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Wal Mart disounted it during pre sale. I don't think that means anything. If Best Buy discounts it than others will follow because they want you to buy it from them. Of course it's possible they're not selling as well as Apple had expected. But it's also possible they are meeting internal expectations and these analyst estimates are way off. We'll know more in a couple weeks.

 

I'm waiting for the numbers from the big 4 at the end of October.

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post #119 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


What evidence. We have no FACTS that the 5C isn't selling well. The only one who has sales figures Apple. Wall Street analysts are just making guesses. But guesses aren't FACT!!

Based on broad availability of the iPhone 5C at 3rd party retail, I think we can safely deduce that the supply, whatever that was, outstripped demand, whatever that is, by a healthy margin.  I would not be surprised if Apple's 5C build plans do, in fact, back off for a bit.  I think that analysts should qualify it that way but not try so hard to quantify it.  We have seen in the past that they are completely unable to quantify things.

 

Thompson

post #120 of 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post
 

 

China Mobile is probably going to subsidize.  I know its unprecedented for that company, but the other Chinese carriers decided to subsidize iPhones, and this has most likely been one of Apple's "non-negotiable" requirements of the deal.

 

Thompson

 

They may subsidize, but you need to understand China better.  Apple went to China Mobile, not the other way around.  China Mobile is state owned and NOBODY is going to dictate to them, hence the reason this deal is taking so long.  I suspect that the reason this deal is actually happening is because the MIIT (read government) has become concerned that Android is becoming too dominant and wants to try and even things out a bit.   

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