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Strong demand of Apple's iPhone 5 series driving an "anti-fragmentation" of iOS

post #1 of 63
Thread Starter 
Just three weeks after Apple launched the new iPhone 5c and 5s, total iPhone Web traffic share attributed to iPhone 5 or newer models is up more than four percentage points to 40.6 percent, highlighting a rapid transition to modern hardware that's the exact opposite of the fragmentation occurring on Android.

iPhone share


Data from Web ad network Chitika tracking the source of mobile web requests in North America indicates what the company called "a "remarkable achievement" and represents a "significant impact on the iPhone ecosystem," with "obvious implications for mobile application and Web developers in terms of compatibility and functionality issues, but also for the technology industry as a whole."

While Apple is already known to have a growing percentage of smartphone sales (via Kantar) and subscribers (via comScore) in North America, the premium route buyers are taking to arrive on iOS is also newsworthy.

While Apple had made its latest iOS 7 software available to devices dating back to the iPhone 4 released in 2010, users are aggressively upgrading in large numbers to Apple's newest hardware. The majority of new iPhones sold last year were iPhone 5. That trend is continuing even faster now that Apple sells two iPhone 5 models, representing an increasing percentage of the iPhone installed base with a high-end model.

iPhone 5s


Just last month, Chitika saw 36.5 percent of North American iPhone web traffic originating from the iPhone 5. In three weeks, that figure has jumped by more than ten percent. As the trend continues, the firm notes that within a few months, "Apple will have a plurality, and possibly a majority, of its iPhone customer base using a device less than one and a half years old."

The company observed, "Should this occur, it would be a remarkable achievement, especially for an industry player as large as Apple."

Down on Frag'le 'Roid



In stark contrast, Android's growth, primarily through its leading licensee Samsung, was won through shipments of large volumes of low end, budget-priced devices equipped with old versions of Google's OS. Sales of higher end, iPhone-class smartphones, such as the Galaxy S4 and HTC One, have fallen significantly below expectations.

That's perpetuating fragmentation on the Android platform, most obviously in software. Developers have little incentive to take advantage of new features and must write for the lowest common denominator to reach a wide installed base of users, as even relatively new phones often ship with an old OS and rarely get software upgrades.

Analysts have repeatedly voiced expectations that Android's volumes would eventually attract developers' attention away from iOS, but that isn't happening.However, Android's fragmentation is also rooted in hardware, because low end, volume shipments are distributing outdated devices that are not only unreliable and frustratingly laggy, but also cut corners with weak graphics, slow processors, limited memory and other design shortcuts that make it difficult to develop apps and games that work well across the platform.

Google has acknowledged and pointedly sought to address Android's fragmentation problems for more than two years. Despite those efforts, the ACLU issued a complaint with the FCC this year describing how Android's fragmentation was exposing users to significant privacy risks.

Research firm Flurry also documented how Android's fragmentation makes things difficult for developers, particularly smaller independent programmers seeking to get started.

"This further clarifies why developer support for iOS is disproportionate to iOS's share of the installed device space," wrote the company's Dr. Mary Ellen Gordon. "Developers can reach more active devices by developing for a smaller number of device models on iOS and they can also capture the attention of very active users."

Analysts have repeatedly voiced expectations that Android's volumes would eventually attract developers' attention away from iOS, but that isn't happening due to the market barriers and risks involved with Android's fragmented platform.

A Schmidt-load of failed predictions



Two years ago, Google's chairman Eric Schmidt predicted that within six months, developers would be targeting Android first instead of iOS, and said they would be taking advantage of features in the newly released Android 4.0.

Android


That didn't happen. Instead, two years later just two-thirds of the installed base of active Google Play users are even running a variant of Android 4.0, and few developers are taking any special advantage of its features. Most apps are aimed at running on Android 2.x devices, from the paleolithic era of Apple's iOS 3.0.

Schmidt made similarly hollow predictions about widespread adoption of Google TV and more recently insisted that Android is "more secure than the iPhone," a remark that was met by laughter during a Gartner Symposium earlier this month.
post #2 of 63
Schmidt just outright lies.. Wouldn't trust him with my breakfast order.
post #3 of 63

"Schmidt made similarly hollow predictions about widespread adoption of Google TV and more recently insisted that Android is "more secure than the iPhone," a remark that was met by laughter during a Gartner Symposium earlier this month."

 

 

Meanwhile, back in Cupertino, Tim Cook's reaction to Schmidt's ridiculous statement....

 

 

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post #4 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adrayven View Post

Schmidt just outright lies.. Wouldn't trust him with my breakfast order.

 

ROFL>............

post #5 of 63

Perhaps the increase in traffic is because of people playing with the phones inside the Apple store to surf the web.

post #6 of 63

WAIT !!

 

Something is definitely Wrong !!!

Apple can't be Right !!

 

ALL the Anal-ysts claimed and predicted that Apple NEEDED to make a "cheaper" iPhone.

Then and Only then, would Apple sell gazillions of iPhones.

And until Then, Apple will Only Sell bazillions of iPhones.

 

Proves to me that the Anal-ysts know NOTHING.

post #7 of 63

Good news for Apple, but I believe the development problems with Android fragmentation are overstated; Google Play Services means that developers largely don't need to be concerned with the version of Android on the device.  Security updates (or the lack of them) for older versions of Android is definitely still an issue, but app development not so much.

 

Would be a perfectly fine article without the undignified Android sniping.

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post #8 of 63
From a developer point of view... Why wouldn't you just develop for the users of Android that have 4.x? Won't that prompt users to want to upgrade to take advantage of the better features?
post #9 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post

Good news for Apple, but I believe the development problems with Android fragmentation are overstated; Google Play Services means that developers largely don't need to be concerned with the version of Android on the device.  Security updates (or the lack of them) for older versions of Android is definitely still an issue, but app development not so much.
Not according to developers. With a large number of devices still shipping with old software they have to pick which features and sizes to support. Your comment is a repeat of something else Schmidt said to deflect attention from a problem the can't fix.

Would be a perfectly fine article without the undignified Android sniping.
post #10 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post

Would be a perfectly fine article without the undignified Android sniping.

Not at all undignified, comparatively. Unless we hold AI to a higher standard than most print media? The absolute bollocks they print about Apple is ridiculous; this is mainly true, at least.

Updates to apps for full screen aka iPhone 5+ use are still lackluster, not sure we're going to be seeing a plethora of screen sizes any time soon. The games especially that have just put colorful frames instead of black borders are just awful. At least on android they have to support stretching around for different screen sizes, much like apple made it mandatory for an app to be able to gracefully quit at a moment's notice without losing data. I can see this, along with Apple's continuous use of pixel-level graphics (not resolution independent) limiting their choices going forward. Of course, with obsolescence comes defragmentation, so Apple are probably in a better position to keep moving forward more than competitors in that regard, at least; iPhone users upgrade.
post #11 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by michaeloftroy View Post

From a developer point of view... Why wouldn't you just develop for the users of Android that have 4.x? Won't that prompt users to want to upgrade to take advantage of the better features?

The users may want to upgrade, but unlike the Apple ecosystem, you have to wait for the carrier or vendor to come out with an update for your phone. In many cases, the hardware can't support the new OS.
post #12 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by michaeloftroy View Post

From a developer point of view... Why wouldn't you just develop for the users of Android that have 4.x? Won't that prompt users to want to upgrade to take advantage of the better features?

If you were a developer would you want to risk investing your time developing for an OS that you hope will have a significant installed base because you did, or would you rather develop for an OS that already has a significant installed base?

post #13 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by em_te View Post

Perhaps the increase in traffic is because of people playing with the phones inside the Apple store to surf the web.

That infamous Shirley McClaine line comes to mind!
post #14 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuffyzDead View Post
 

WAIT !!

 

Something is definitely Wrong !!!

Apple can't be Right !!

 

ALL the Anal-ysts claimed and predicted that Apple NEEDED to make a "cheaper" iPhone.

Then and Only then, would Apple sell gazillions of iPhones.

And until Then, Apple will Only Sell bazillions of iPhones.

 

Proves to me that the Anal-ysts know NOTHING.

 

They did made a cheap phone, the 5c will be a cheap option with good margins when the iphone 6 is out at the 5c drops to $400-$450

post #15 of 63

'A Schmidt-load'... I'll have to remember that one lol. Even better than 'Samesung'.

Where are we on the curve? We'll know once it goes asymptotic!
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post #16 of 63
"Down on Fraggle Roid."

Brilliant. How many here have heard of Fraggle Rock, I wonder?

Author of The Fuel Injection Bible

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Author of The Fuel Injection Bible

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post #17 of 63

maybe i'm just being sour grapes stuck on my loooong canadian 4S contract, but i can't help but feel we've all gone a bit off our rockers in this smartphone craze.

 

the implication of this article seems to be that its ideal that we all upgrade our phones every 1 or 2 years, and that any stragglers to this behaviour are the source of OS fragmentation.

 

i know there are some of us for whom tech goodies are our indulgence, and thats cool, but this article seems to be cheerleading the idea of a MAJORITY of users treating technology as something almost disposable, which i feel isn't the most responsible behaviour.

 

i don't mean this to be particularly critical of apple, either, as i think they do a better job than most of providing legacy support to their phones for several years. i'd just hate for this to change in the name of preventing fragmentation, backed by the fact that many users will ditch their old hardware after a year anyway.

 

just my two cents, anyway.

post #18 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by EricTheHalfBee View Post

"Down on Fraggle Roid."

Brilliant. How many here have heard of Fraggle Rock, I wonder?

 

 

I think it came on right after Beachcombers. 

 

;)

 

*sigh* . . . 

post #19 of 63
This also implies that all the old phones are no longer being used, seeing as most phones are either sold on or handed down that is probably not the case. The only real possibility for an increase is that they are selling a 'boatload' of new phones.
post #20 of 63

Um... ya, except that intelligence services worldwide have given higher security approval to Android than to Apple. For very good reasons. Note also that the only vendor that has the highest levels of security approval is BlackBerry. Also for very good reasons. If you are seriously trying to argue that Apple's security infrastructure is up to snuff, then you know nothing at all about security. 

post #21 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by michaeloftroy View Post

From a developer point of view... Why wouldn't you just develop for the users of Android that have 4.x? Won't that prompt users to want to upgrade to take advantage of the better features?

I have friends on iphone4 which are already very slow and with faulty home buttons. They still use them because the phones "still work". That the new iphone models are faster, more capable and offer more features is irrelevant because the original iphone4 still looks sleek and elegant, it continues to perform the basic smartphone functions (whatsapp, facebook, imessage, web-browsing, shared photostream), and you can use 3rd party apps like google maps or camera+ or skype to compensate for withheld features. 

 

That and Apple technically still supports iphone4 with IOS7. Even if you argue that the iphone4 won't get many of the new features or that it runs like molasses, it still supports the new APIs. So apps are still going to refresh silently in the background regardless of whether it is running on an iphone4 or 5s. You will get support for game controllers etc.

 

I suspect it's the same here. No one is going to upgrade their phone just so they can use a certain app. They simply won't buy or use that app, which just results in lost sales for the developer. And these people are on gingerbread phones for a simple reason. They need an inexpensive handset, and aren't going to break the bank recontracting to a more capable (and more expensive) phone. 

post #22 of 63

Android: hmm… I've heard people (smart people, uni students even) saying how much better it is than iOS but can't seem to use the maps, or find the calculator, or the camera, (oops!) … And how much better it is to have replaceable batteries (that not one of them has actually changed), SD card expansion (that not one of them had used), a stronger flash (that gives shittier pictures), a bigger screen (that requires two hands to use).

 

Why Apple fans worry about the little green toy-robot I do not know. The execrable (effing horrendous!) Galaxy Gear is what we get if Apple doesn't provide a blue-print a year or two in advance.  Samscum will sink under the weight of its photocopiers. And Google may be genius at search (Bing is for cretins, sorry!) but is clueless at hardware (and ethics and honesty and discretion and respect for privacy). 

 

Enz

post #23 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by enzos View Post
 

Android: hmm… I've heard people (smart people, uni students even) saying how much better it is than iOS but can't seem to use the maps, or find the calculator, or the camera, (oops!) … And how much better it is to have replaceable batteries (that not one of them has actually changed), SD card expansion (that not one of them had used), a stronger flash (that gives shittier pictures), a bigger screen (that requires two hands to use).

 

Why Apple fans worry about the little green toy-robot I do not know. The execrable (effing horrendous!) Galaxy Gear is what we get if Apple doesn't provide a blue-print a year or two in advance.  Samscum will sink under the weight of its photocopiers. And Google may be genius at search (Bing is for cretins, sorry!) but is clueless at hardware (and ethics and honesty and discretion and respect for privacy). 

 

Enz

Apple would ignore Android at its peril. I'm not a huge fan of Android, but it has some significant advantages over software, and their hardware is undeniably more advanced. They're also cheaper, which is why they are dominating in most of the world over Apple. You also seem to be ignoring all the good things that Google has done, such as the Google Maps and Earth projects, or big data or epidemic tracking or countless other initiatives that are for the good of all humankind. 

 

What did Steve Jobs do, exactly? Create a better phone and refuse to give any money to charity. Way to go. Contrast him to Bill Gates in this sense. 

 

If you don't like Android, fine. But to underestimate your enemy is the first step toward defeat. Of course, Apple is already well on its way to defeat, so this mistake has long been made. The question is whether its too late to stop the tide. 

post #24 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScienceBoy View Post
 

Apple would ignore Android at its peril. I'm not a huge fan of Android, but it has some significant advantages over software, and their hardware is undeniably more advanced. They're also cheaper, which is why they are dominating in most of the world over Apple. You also seem to be ignoring all the good things that Google has done, such as the Google Maps and Earth projects, or big data or epidemic tracking or countless other initiatives that are for the good of all humankind. 

 

What did Steve Jobs do, exactly? Create a better phone and refuse to give any money to charity. Way to go. Contrast him to Bill Gates in this sense. 

 

If you don't like Android, fine. But to underestimate your enemy is the first step toward defeat. Of course, Apple is already well on its way to defeat, so this mistake has long been made. The question is whether its too late to stop the tide. 

Your entire argument lost all credibility once you typed "and their hardware is undeniably more advanced". They're hardware is NOT more advanced, not by a long shot, especially after the A7 SoC unveiling. And if you think "more advanced" equals a bigger screen, you have no idea what the word "advanced" truly means.

 

Oh, and saying "Apple is already well on its way to defeat" kinda makes you sound like one of those dipshit, dumbass analysts from Wall Street, and trolls from BGR, who've been saying Apple is Doomed for almost 30 years. STFU!

post #25 of 63
Originally Posted by EricTheHalfBee View Post
"Down on Fraggle Roid."

Brilliant. How many here have heard of Fraggle Rock, I wonder?

 

 

Steal their work away,

Conscience? Ha! Not today,

Android’s here to stay,

Down at Google Rock!

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #26 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by michaeloftroy View Post

From a developer point of view... Why wouldn't you just develop for the users of Android that have 4.x? Won't that prompt users to want to upgrade to take advantage of the better features?

Because you would be developing for less than a third of users and maybe three different handsets.
post #27 of 63
"A Schmidt-load" now THAT needs to be trademarked! That's just way too funny!

Ten years ago, we had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Today we have no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash.

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post #28 of 63

I call BS on this report.  For the iphone 5 to have that large of share, all the previous modesl of iphones must have been turned off.  No doubt the iphone 5 is successful but I suspect there is a flaw in Chitika's analysis as it doesn't pass a simple sanity check.

post #29 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevemiller View Post
 

i know there are some of us for whom tech goodies are our indulgence, and thats cool, but this article seems to be cheerleading the idea of a MAJORITY of users treating technology as something almost disposable, which i feel isn't the most responsible behaviour.

 

I don't know about 'almost disposable' - I've owned a number of iPhones and 3 iPads over the last few years and I've only ever had to 'dispose' of one, when my iPad 2 died and couldn't be saved. All the others, when I have upgraded, have either been given or loaned to family memebers, or sold. Or have been kept for development use - while I'm on a 5S now, I have my old 4S and my old 3GS so I can test apps at 3.5" on both iOS7 and iOS6.

 

In terms of fragmentation, I think the biggest surprise for me this year was that Apple discontinued the iPhone 5 but kept the iPhone 4S around. That means at least 1 more year of supporting the 30-pin dock connector, and at least 2 more years of supporting the 3.5" screen size in software. Assuming Applestays consistent with past behavior, next year they will release iOS 8 with support for the iPhone 4S so all iOS 8 apps will be expected to support that screen size.

 

 

Also on the subject of fragmentation, if the two biggest challenges are multiple OS versions and multiple screen sizes, I think Apple is in good stead. It seems there really isn't a problem with multiple OS versions, with a high adoption rate. And the screen sizes problem I think they have been focused on for a year or two, by pushing developers to adopt auto-layout. They've certainly been telling devs for years not to make assumptions on screen size. 

post #30 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adrayven View Post

Schmidt just outright lies.. Wouldn't trust him with my breakfast order.
Schmidt saying 'tis so doesn't make it neat. Dreams of desperation do not conjure reality from such a little mouth housing such large feet. Better he practise silent prayer whilst rumination on the little throne.

When I find time to rewrite the laws of Physics, there'll Finally be some changes made round here!

I am not crazy! Three out of five court appointed psychiatrists said so.

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post #31 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjwal View Post
 

I call BS on this report.  For the iphone 5 to have that large of share, all the previous modesl of iphones must have been turned off.  No doubt the iphone 5 is successful but I suspect there is a flaw in Chitika's analysis as it doesn't pass a simple sanity check.

 

At least up until the 4 I believe it was a fact that newest model of iPhone would sell more than all previous iPhones put together, so would be >50% of all iPhones in use.

 

Therefore the proposition that the 5 + 5C +5S equals >40% of all iPhones in use isn't beyond comprehension.  iPhones also break, get recycled, or just get thrown away sometimes.

 

Plus, it's web stats, not a primary information source.  I think it's not illogical that people with a new iPhone are going to browse the web more than those with an older one.  Maybe LTE makes some difference too.

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post #32 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

"Schmidt made similarly hollow predictions about widespread adoption of Google TV and more recently insisted that Android is "more secure than the iPhone," a remark that was met by laughter during a Gartner Symposium earlier this month."


Meanwhile, back in Cupertino, Tim Cook's reaction to Schmidt's ridiculous statement....


CREATOR: gd-jpeg v1.0 (using IJG JPEG v62), quality = 85
I didn't know Jesus worked for Apple, that explains a lot.
post #33 of 63
i have friends who make the leep to android all the time, and then welcome them back a few months later, almost all come back, once the eyes free gimmick wears off they just want a sold OS with quality apps
post #34 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjwal View Post

I call BS on this report.  For the iphone 5 to have that large of share, all the previous modesl of iphones must have been turned off.  No doubt the iphone 5 is successful but I suspect there is a flaw in Chitika's analysis as it doesn't pass a simple sanity check.
Much like the simple sanity test that the sun obviously revolves around the earth.

When I find time to rewrite the laws of Physics, there'll Finally be some changes made round here!

I am not crazy! Three out of five court appointed psychiatrists said so.

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When I find time to rewrite the laws of Physics, there'll Finally be some changes made round here!

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post #35 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScienceBoy View Post
 

Apple would ignore Android at its peril.

No.

I'm not a huge fan of Android, but...

Obviously.

...but it has some significant advantages over software

Because it isn't software?

...and their hardware is undeniably more advanced.

This isn't the first place where your so-called argument falls apart but is breathtaking, although it would be breathtaking if you had a clue.

They're also cheaper...

Apple didn't hire Angela Ahrendts, whose current up-market company has particular expertise in China, to help them build a cheaper phone.

What did Steve Jobs do, exactly? Create a better phone and refuse to give any money to charity. Way to go. Contrast him to Bill Gates in this sense.

You have not the slightest clue what Steve Jobs gave to charity. True charity is not seen. Bill Gates is doing a great work though not on his own but driven by his wife Melinda and he's using ill gotten gains to do it.

...But to underestimate your enemy is the first step toward defeat.

Like you'd have a clue about Apple's thinking!

...Of course, Apple is already well on its way to defeat, so this mistake has long been made. The question is whether its too late to stop the tide.

By every metric this is untrue. Do you know how much of the phone market Steve Jobs hoped to corner with the iPhone when released? Your arguments are laughable except for the waste of time taken to reply to them.

Where are we on the curve? We'll know once it goes asymptotic!
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post #36 of 63
Quote:
 That's perpetuating fragmentation on the Android platform, most obviously in software. Developers have little incentive to take advantage of new features and must write for the lowest common denominator to reach a wide installed base of users

 

As many have said before; these users are not application aware, but rather, simply 'phone' users.

 

Quote:
 Despite those efforts, the ACLU issued a complaintwith the FCC this year describing how Android's fragmentation was exposing users to significant privacy risks.

 

How stupid! How is the ACLU even involved in this, and what would they possibly expect to happen to fix this? We are now going to government regulate software installations? Ha! 

post #37 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post


Because you would be developing for less than a third of users and maybe three different handsets.

 

I think your figures are off by quite a large margin.  Would you care to offer a source or two for your numbers?

post #38 of 63
Originally Posted by ScienceBoy View Post
You don't think the Android phones have more advanced hardware than the iPhone?

 

Only because they don’t. 

 
The only reason iPhones can compete on any metric that matters is due to software, not hardware. The top end Androids have faster processors, more memory, better screens and so on. What metric are you using to be so dismissive? Oh, right. You're a fanboy so don't bother taking an unbiased view of the competition. 

 

WOW, you’re stupid for a “cancer researcher”.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #39 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by enzos View Post
 

Android: hmm… I've heard people (smart people, uni students even) saying how much better it is than iOS but can't seem to use the maps, or find the calculator, or the camera, (oops!) … And how much better it is to have replaceable batteries (that not one of them has actually changed), SD card expansion (that not one of them had used), a stronger flash (that gives shittier pictures), a bigger screen (that requires two hands to use).

 

Why Apple fans worry about the little green toy-robot I do not know. The execrable (effing horrendous!) Galaxy Gear is what we get if Apple doesn't provide a blue-print a year or two in advance.  Samscum will sink under the weight of its photocopiers. And Google may be genius at search (Bing is for cretins, sorry!) but is clueless at hardware (and ethics and honesty and discretion and respect for privacy). 

 

Enz

 

How is sponsored search, which is what you get from Google any good? how many times have you gone directly to the 2nd or 3rd page? Facebook and Google are despicable with any info you give them. OS X, iOS, Apple hardware, and what Apple doesn't do with your info, makes Apple far and away the best you can buy and its not even close.

post #40 of 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScienceBoy View Post
 

You don't think the Android phones have more advanced hardware than the iPhone? Hmm... you're delusional or horribly ill informed. The only reason iPhones can compete on any metric that matters is due to software, not hardware. The top end Androids have faster processors, more memory, better screens and so on. What metric are you using to be so dismissive? Oh, right. You're a fanboy so don't bother taking an unbiased view of the competition. 

 

As to the Steve Jobs charity issue... criminy. Spare me the Libertarian claptrap about charity. And to badmouth Bill Gates on the issue of charity  is idiotic, not to mention (again) ill informed. As a cancer researcher I have zero tolerance for the opinions of slimeballs like Jobs. 

 

 

I thought we showed some 10+ years ago that processor speed is NOT the benchmark for performance, nor is amount of ram? Regardless whether you think one is better than the other, this argument has been proven wrong long, long ago. 

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