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Retina iPad mini forecast to outsell thinner 'iPad 5' nearly 2:1, if Apple meets demand

post #1 of 106
Thread Starter 
A high-resolution Retina display on the second-generation version of Apple's iPad mini is projected by investors to drive demand enough to keep it more popular than a thinner and lighter fifth-generation iPad, though there are concerns about supply constraints leading into the holiday shopping season.

Event


Like many others, analyst Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets expects that Apple will unveil a new iPad mini with Retina display at its product unveiling event next week. He also expects a new 9.7-inch iPad with a thinner bezel and lighter frame.

He sees the Retina iPad mini outselling the fifth-generation iPad by nearly two to one this holiday season, with the iPad mini taking a 65 percent share of Apple's overall tablet sales, and the 9.7-inch variety accounting for the remaining 35 percent.

But that would require Apple to meet demand for an iPad mini with Retina display, he cautioned. There have been recent reports suggesting that Apple could face supply constraints with its second-generation iPad mini, due to production of the device's expected Retina display.

To that end, analyst Ben A. Reitzes of of Barclays Capital separately said in a note to investors this week that he expects "major product constraints" for a new iPad mini with Retina display. Reitzes said he "wouldn't be surprised" if Apple was forced to ship the device later in the December quarter.

Mockup
Second-generation iPad mini mockup by Martin Hajek.


Meanwhile, analyst David Evanson of Canaccord Genuity has a different take: He expects that the slimmer fifth-generation iPad will actually outsell the Retina iPad mini during the holiday quarter due to anticipated supply constraints. His forecast calls for sales of 12.9 million "iPad 5" units, and 11.5 million Retina iPad mini units during the three-month frame.

Like Reitzes, Evanson believes that Apple could be forced to introduce the new iPad mini with a "delayed launch" in the December quarter. Once Apple can ramp up supply, Evanson sees the Retina iPad mini outselling the full-size fifth-generation iPad 14.4 million to 8.4 million in the March 2014 quarter.

Apple officially announced on Tuesday that it will hold a media event next week, on Oct. 22, to unveil new products. Updated iPads are widely expected to be the main focus of the event, which will take place at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco, Calif.

Also likely to be featured in the keynote are OS X Mavericks and new Mac hardware, including the soon-to-be-released redesigned Mac Pro desktop. The event kicks off at 10 a.m. Pacific, 1 p.m. Eastern next Tuesday, and AppleInsider will be there for full, live coverage.
post #2 of 106

just jack up the price of the mini

 

iPad 499

iPadMini 329

iPadMini retina 399

post #3 of 106

The iPad 5 . . .  c.

 

 

/s

post #4 of 106
"A lot to cover" means more pixels on the mini, means Retina.
 
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post #5 of 106
Is this the same analyst that predicted the 5c would outsell the 5s?
post #6 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post

"A lot to cover" means more pixels on the mini, means Retina.

I think it just means that they need to update iPods, iPads, Macs, Mac OS X, and possibly update the Apple TV and release a new product. Even if you remove those item items at the end there is still a lot to cover to get them ready for the holiday season.
post #7 of 106

Nope.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #8 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Nope.

Quite right.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #9 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

just jack up the price of the mini

iPad 499
iPadMini 329
iPadMini retina 399

Jack up the price of the retina mini but keep the non retina $329? Is that some joke? Btw, when Apple released the 3rd gen iPad they didn't raise the price.
post #10 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

just jack up the price of the mini

 

iPad 499

iPadMini 329

iPadMini retina 399

 

Youre suggestion risk to enrage consumers.  With retina nexus tablets and retina amazon tablets selling at $200 there is a limit for Apple to overcharged and take big margins. At some point it just becomes a rip-off.

 

imo Apple will keep the same price, like they always do.

post #11 of 106
iPad mini retina $349-379 in that price range going up $100 for additional GB!

Well that's what I think!
post #12 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by akqies View Post

I think it just means that they need to update iPods, iPads, Macs, Mac OS X, and possibly update the Apple TV and release a new product. Even if you remove those item items at the end there is still a lot to cover to get them ready for the holiday season.

Will we get a iPod classic with a lightning port and fusion drive?
 
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post #13 of 106
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post
Quite right.

 

Maybe I’m wrong, but isn’t the proper iPad still selling far better? 

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #14 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Jack up the price of the retina mini but keep the non retina $329? Is that some joke? Btw, when Apple released the 3rd gen iPad they didn't raise the price.

I think the old mini becomes $279-299. But if they do retina and A7 (and possibly a fingerprint)- I'd fully expect a jump in price.

While The iPad 3 didn't go up in price, it also only changed from A5 to A5X. You're talking with the mini to go from A5 to A7/A7X. If that happens- I'm all for $349-399

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
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post #15 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post

Will we get a iPod classic with a lightning port and fusion drive?

We don't yet have Fusion Drives in MBPs which is something I think people really want.

I wouldn't even be sure the iPod Classic will continue to sell anywhere else but their online clearance store. At some point the number of buyers will drop to a point that continuing to produce more of the same tried-and-true iPod won't make sense to Apple. I think that's probably this year, but it's just a guess.
post #16 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Maybe I’m wrong, but isn’t the proper iPad still selling far better? 

I don't know where those numbers would be as they aren't released. Maybe from a third party group like best buy, macmall, etc?

I wouldn't be surprised either way to be honest.

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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post #17 of 106
I can't wait to see the BS excuses when there isn't a retina Mini (because Apple has no intention to release one any time soon)

Or perhaps we'll just get a mass explosion of heads and be done with the analysts once and for all

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #18 of 106
I think the analysts are all wrong.

There will be no new iPad mini. Retina or otherwise. The iPad mini will be discontinued.

The retina displays will all be reserved for the new iPhone 5p with a 7 inch screen. Who needs an iPad mini when you have phone with a 7" screen?

The event on Oct 22 will be to reveal more new colors for the iPhone 5c. That is why the analysts think Apple is cutting orders for the 5c. Apple is really just adjusting 5c orders to handle the new colors. There will be 64 colors of iPhone available.

In an associated move, Apple will announce that they have acquired Crayola.

Finally Apple with announce a new partnership with Burberyy where Burberry will start making all its clothes with larger pockets to accommodate a 7 inch phone.

Apple will also announce support for Java and Flash in iOS7.

:P
post #19 of 106

I can see the Mini outselling the iPad 5. It's all about mobility ! (And price!)

 

I also think Apple with go Retina on the Mini. Remember last year how quickly Apple replaced the 30 pin connector on the entire iPad line?

 

Apple likes uniformity in their product lines.

post #20 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

I can't wait to see the BS excuses when there isn't a retina Mini (because Apple has no intention to release one any time soon)

Or perhaps we'll just get a mass explosion of heads and be done with the analysts once and for all

You could be right. I fear that you could be right. I dread that you may be right.

And so on.

On the other hand, why the thicker case and the presumably larger battery?

Then again on your side, is that miniscule extra thickness enough to accommodate a retina display?

Then on my side, only if it's IGZO!
Edited by Flaneur - 10/16/13 at 9:59am
post #21 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

just jack up the price of the mini

 

iPad 499

iPadMini 329

iPadMini retina 399

That would be utterly ridiculous. And it won't happen.

 

iPad $499

iPad mini $329

 

I don't see any room for today's 1st gen iPad mini after gen 2 becomes available. Apple can't afford to lower the price on it AT ALL to maintain acceptable margin (this is not an iPhone).

post #22 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

just jack up the price of the mini

 

iPad 499

iPadMini 329

iPadMini retina 399

I'd like to see:

 

iPad 499

iPad mini 299

iPad mini Retina 399

 

The mini would be very, very attractive at $299 compared to $249 Android tablets. The psychological barrier of $3xx might be significant. The high-end Retina version would still eat at Android tab revenues and compensate Apple with profits that might be lost on the $299 mini.

For your sake, I hope you're right.
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For your sake, I hope you're right.
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post #23 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carthusia View Post
 

I'd like to see:

 

iPad 499

iPad mini 299

iPad mini Retina 399

 

The mini would be very, very attractive at $299 compared to $249 Android tablets. The psychological barrier of $3xx might be significant. The high-end Retina version would still eat at Android tab revenues and compensate Apple with profits that might be lost on the $299 mini.

 

Nope, $100 is WAAAY to slim of a difference between iPad & iPad mini w/ retina display. Never happen.

 

There is a reason why the iPad mini is $329. Actually, several dozen very good reasons. That's not going to change.

post #24 of 106
Newsflash: Some guy predicts one imaginary product will outsell another imaginary product! Stop the presses!
post #25 of 106
Newsflash: Some guy predicts one imaginary product will outsell another imaginary product! Stop the presses!
post #26 of 106
Newsflash: Some guy predicts one imaginary product will outsell another imaginary product! Stop the presses!
post #27 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

I can't wait to see the BS excuses when there isn't a retina Mini (because Apple has no intention to release one any time soon)

Or perhaps we'll just get a mass explosion of heads and be done with the analysts once and for all

 

I've thought all along that the mini would not get a Retina display and that there was also absolutely no reason for it either. People bought the mini over the last 12 months....they didn't care about the lack of Retina display....in fact a good 90% wouldn't even know what that meant. Mini buyers are average consumers in the majority. The slim, slim minority of mini buyers are Apple geeks that want everything. Even slimmer minority are Apple geeks that think they need a smaller iPad than the one they already had.

 

Its all about Price with the mini. Size is second. People want iPad, can't afford $499, but can afford $329, BANG, sale is made. The occasional person that can afford $499 but actually WANTS 7.9 instead of 9.7 will slip in as well...but they are not a metric. They are an assumption, that doesn't play into the market in a significant way.

 

iPad mini very well may not even get a Retina display, because it doesn't need one to sell. When it sells because of its price, it doesn't matter what else you bake in at the same price.

 

Adding Retina and raising the price would be by the stupidest thing Apple has ever done and would utterly sink the mini.

 

iPad 5 will sell better with mini remaining as is, with minor spec bumps. That means more $ for Apple.

 

I wonder if they used the iPhone 5S launch as an experiment to test the economy's health to see if it is game for a flagship year. The iPhone 5S exceeded their expectations, and I bet they now feel 100% confident in their redesigned iPad 5 with its slick colors and A7 64-bit / Touch ID offering.

post #28 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

I can't wait to see the BS excuses when there isn't a retina Mini (because Apple has no intention to release one any time soon)

Or perhaps we'll just get a mass explosion of heads and be done with the analysts once and for all

That would be cool. Besides, Apple hasn't even announced new iPads. Also never introduced to models simultaneously for that matter.
"Fibonacci: As easy as 1, 1, 2, 3..."
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"Fibonacci: As easy as 1, 1, 2, 3..."
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post #29 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post

I think the old mini becomes $279-299. But if they do retina and A7 (and possibly a fingerprint)- I'd fully expect a jump in price.

While The iPad 3 didn't go up in price, it also only changed from A5 to A5X. You're talking with the mini to go from A5 to A7/A7X. If that happens- I'm all for $349-399
If a retina mini gets the same specs as the 5th gen (which I think it should) then I have no problem with a price increase. But that would have to go with a price reduction on the current mini. Add A6 to the current mini and drop the price to $279-$299.
post #30 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


If a retina mini gets the same specs as the 5th gen (which I think it should) then I have no problem with a price increase. But that would have to go with a price reduction on the current mini. Add A6 to the current mini and drop the price to $279-$299.

If they add the A6- I'd see the price staying at $329.  If anything- they'd keep the A5 mini as-is and drop the price.

 

Really, it's all speculation- I wouldn't be surprised by anything at this point.

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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post #31 of 106

I think we will see this price structure:

 

iPad: $499

iPad mini w Retina: $399

iPad mini without Retina: $299.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the standard iPad mini also came in one finish (black) or even follow the iPhone's lead with colored cases for kids.  I do think they will DROP the price of the standard mini heading into the holiday season, but maintain their brand with a higher-end iPad mini.

post #32 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

I've thought all along that the mini would not get a Retina display and that there was also absolutely no reason for it either. People bought the mini over the last 12 months....they didn't care about the lack of Retina display....in fact a good 90% wouldn't even know what that meant. Mini buyers are average consumers in the majority. The slim, slim minority of mini buyers are Apple geeks that want everything. Even slimmer minority are Apple geeks that think they need a smaller iPad than the one they already had.

Its all about Price with the mini. Size is second. People want iPad, can't afford $499, but can afford $329, BANG, sale is made. The occasional person that can afford $499 but actually WANTS 7.9 instead of 9.7 will slip in as well...but they are not a metric. They are an assumption, that doesn't play into the market in a significant way.

iPad mini very well may not even get a Retina display, because it doesn't need one to sell. When it sells because of its price, it doesn't matter what else you bake in at the same price.

Adding Retina and raising the price would be by the stupidest thing Apple has ever done and would utterly sink the mini.

iPad 5 will sell better with mini remaining as is, with minor spec bumps. That means more $ for Apple.

I wonder if they used the iPhone 5S launch as an experiment to test the economy's health to see if it is game for a flagship year. The iPhone 5S exceeded their expectations, and I bet they now feel 100% confident in their redesigned iPad 5 with its slick colors and A7 64-bit / Touch ID offering.

No, the dumbest thing for Apple to do is rest on their laurels. And continuing to sell the mini without retina at $329 is disaster. For one thing, iOS 7 was absolutely designed with retina displays in mind. It looks so much better on a retina display. Second, the mini would be the only iDevice Apple sells without a retina display. Eventually customers will ask how come an iPod touch can have a retina display but not an iPad mini? And if the 5th gen iPad gets the mini form factor (ie.e thinner and lighter) people will ask why it's possible to do so on the full size and not on the mini. Oh and how come Amazon and Asus don't seem to have a problem fitting a retina like display in a 7" form factor (and for a lot cheaper too). What you're suggesting is pure arrogance.

IMO the deciding factor on a retina mini is battery life. If Apple has found a way to get 9-10 hours battery life then its a go. If battery life was compromised to where they're only getting 7-8 hours then its probably a no go.
post #33 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post

If they add the A6- I'd see the price staying at $329.  If anything- they'd keep the A5 mini as-is and drop the price.

Really, it's all speculation- I wouldn't be surprised by anything at this point.
Really? Is the A6 that much more expensive to produce?
post #34 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


If a retina mini gets the same specs as the 5th gen (which I think it should) then I have no problem with a price increase. But that would have to go with a price reduction on the current mini. Add A6 to the current mini and drop the price to $279-$299.

 

Nope. Can't happen. People with no concept of component cost, Apple's margin, or market strategies can make up any combination they want...it doesn't make them options.

 

Here are some cold hard facts to keep in mind when speculating wildly.

 

1) The iPad mini doesn't need a Retina display at all in order to sell to its target market.

2) The iPad mini cannot could not would not will not receive an A7 processor at the same time as the more expensive iPad. It's just not possible. Everyone should fully expect the second generation iPad mini to sport an A6. 

3) The worst thing that could happen to the iPad mini is for its price to change in any direction. More expensive for second generation would doom it. Less expensive for first generation if they kept it in the lineup would doom Apple, as there is no wiggle room for acceptable margin. Think about it: $50 reduction would be negligible to the consumer, $100 would be far far far too extreme for Apple's considerations.

 

That leaves you with only a few possibilities to reasonably speculate on. The most logical of which turn out to be

 

iPads for 2013/2014

 

iPad - $499 - A7-64bit, Touch ID, improved other specs.

 

iPad mini - $329 - A6X, Retina Display, improved other specs.

 

And even so, I still have doubts about whether or not the A6X will just be an A6 without the quad core graphics, because there is no Retina display.

post #35 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Really? Is the A6 that much more expensive to produce?

Tell that to the iPad 2 and iPod Touch.  ;) 

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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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post #36 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post
 

 

Nope. Can't happen. People with no concept of component cost, Apple's margin, or market strategies can make up any combination they want...it doesn't make them options.

 

Here are some cold hard facts to keep in mind when speculating wildly.

 

1) The iPad mini doesn't need a Retina display at all in order to sell to its target market.

2) The iPad mini cannot could not would not will not receive an A7 processor at the same time as the more expensive iPad. It's just not possible. Everyone should fully expect the second generation iPad mini to sport an A6. 

3) The worst thing that could happen to the iPad mini is for its price to change in any direction. More expensive for second generation would doom it. Less expensive for first generation if they kept it in the lineup would doom Apple, as there is no wiggle room for acceptable margin. Think about it: $50 reduction would be negligible to the consumer, $100 would be far far far too extreme for Apple's considerations.

 

That leaves you with only a few possibilities to reasonably speculate on. The most logical of which turn out to be

 

iPads for 2013/2014

 

iPad - $499 - A7-64bit, Touch ID, improved other specs.

 

iPad mini - $329 - A6X, Retina Display, improved other specs.

 

And even so, I still have doubts about whether or not the A6X will just be an A6 without the quad core graphics, because there is no Retina display.

Contradict yourself much?  Or do you have a direct in-road to Apple's margins, market strategies, and component costs?

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
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post #37 of 106

iPadmini  - $299

A6

5 plastic colors

no fingerprint

 

iPadMini Retina - $399

A7

Metal

Fingerprint

 

Expecting a Retina with Fingerprint at $329 is ridiculous.  Why would the iPadMini with simular hardware as an iPhone5S cost over $300 less?

post #38 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


No, the dumbest thing for Apple to do is rest on their laurels. And continuing to sell the mini without retina at $329 is disaster.

 

Based on what? What is it about iPad mini's sales that qualifies you to make such a ridiculous statement?

 

You're wrong, of course, based on both data and logic.

post #39 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post
 

Contradict yourself much?

Read much?

 

Yo can either speculate based on nothing intelligent whatsoever....or you can rule out the impossible first...and then whatever you're left with is the truth.

 

No matter how much you might like or not like it.

post #40 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post
 

Read much?

 

Yo can either speculate based on nothing intelligent whatsoever....or you can rule out the impossible first...and then whatever you're left with is the truth.

 

No matter how much you might like or not like it.

Next Tuesday we'll see.  In the meantime- while I clearly said I was speculating- you clearly state "can't happen" "You're wrong" "Will never happen" "won't happen". And plenty other definitive statements.  You, sir, have backed yourself into a corner.

 

But, of course, with your insider knowledge to Apple's marketing strategies, margins, and component costs- we should all listen to you vs anyone else.

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
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