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Retina iPad mini forecast to outsell thinner 'iPad 5' nearly 2:1, if Apple meets demand - Page 2

post #41 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by azentropy View Post

Is this the same analyst that predicted the 5c would outsell the 5s?

Talk to me in a year when the early adopter rush for the 's' has passed and the 'c' has had a full year to establish itself as a bit of a cost saver for people who don't need the specific features of the 's'

 

'The plural of "anecdote" is not "data"'.

post #42 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Maybe I’m wrong, but isn’t the proper iPad still selling far better? 

Not according to various reports I've read. It's just the opposite with the Mini handily outselling it's larger brethren if those reports are true. Maybe a "smaller iPad" was the right size all along.
http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/ipad-mini-outselling-ipad-by-large-margin/
http://ipadinsight.com/ipad-mini/ipad-mini-predicted-to-outsell-ipad-this-year-sounds-right/
http://www.businessinsider.com/ipad-mini-sales-2012-12
Edited by Gatorguy - 10/16/13 at 9:02am
melior diabolus quem scies
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post #43 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post
 

Next Tuesday we'll see.  In the meantime- while I clearly said I was speculating- you clearly state "can't happen" "You're wrong" "Will never happen" "won't happen". And plenty other definitive statements.  You, sir, have backed yourself into a corner.

 

But, of course, with your insider knowledge to Apple's marketing strategies, margins, and component costs- we should all listen to you vs anyone else.

 

You shouldn't have to listen to me....you should be able to come to the same conclusion if you include A) Fact and B) Logic into your own reasoning.

 

When you don't do that, you come up with impossible scenarios. Like the iPad mini going up in price no matter what Apple were to add to it. Or the iPad mini getting the same processor and tent pole features of the much more expensive flagship iPad.

 

Those are impossible scenarios, and any speculation that includes them is not well thought out at all, and not worth acknowledging in the same light as scenarios that are.

 

The phrase "anything can happen" really does not apply to Apple product launches. There is only one scenario that will happen, and there are slight variances on that scenario that are possible. Slight.

 

Although, some might not consider the distinction between the mini getting vs. not getting a Retina Display "slight"...but I would. It would not affect the overall outcome at all, therefor it is slight.

post #44 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Maybe I’m wrong, but isn’t the proper iPad still selling far better? 

 

The 'proper' iPad is by my definition the one that is selling best.  Therefore the answer is yes, by definition.  According to Gartner, the Mini achieved 60% of combined sales in 1Q and subsequent data is showing the trend towards 7/8" tablets is increasing.  The 'improper' tablets seem to be losing favour ;)    Analysts are able to get approximations of this based on the ASP provided by Apple.

post #45 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post
 

 

Maybe I’m wrong, but isn’t the proper iPad still selling far better? 

 

No, it is not. By most accounts it is either equal or less overall units than iPad mini.

 

This is not the least bit surprising. The overwhelming majority of people would rather pay $329 than $499. This is the deciding factor.

post #46 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post
 

 

The 'proper' iPad is by my definition the one that is selling best.  Therefore the answer is yes, by definition.  According to Gartner, the Mini achieved 60% of combined sales in 1Q and subsequent data is showing the trend towards 7/8" tablets is increasing.  The 'improper' tablets seem to be losing favour ;)    Analysts are able to get approximations of this based on the ASP provided by Apple.

Thats an interesting perspective, but it still falls short because it has nothing to do with a 7.9" tablet being more desirable in any way than 9.7" 

 

The factor is Price, and nothing more.

post #47 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


Not according to various reports I've read. It's just the opposite with the Mini handily outselling it's larger brethren if those reports are true. Maybe a "smaller iPad" was the right size all along.
http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/ipad-mini-outselling-ipad-by-large-margin/
http://ipadinsight.com/ipad-mini/ipad-mini-predicted-to-outsell-ipad-this-year-sounds-right/
http://www.businessinsider.com/ipad-mini-sales-2012-12

Its CHEAPER. 

 

Good grief. Do you people honestly believe that this would be the same if the iPad and iPad mini were the same price?

post #48 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

I can't wait to see the BS excuses when there isn't a retina Mini (because Apple has no intention to release one any time soon)

Or perhaps we'll just get a mass explosion of heads and be done with the analysts once and for all

You'll be eating crow on October 22

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post #49 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by akqies View Post


We don't yet have Fusion Drives in MBPs which is something I think people really want.

I wouldn't even be sure the iPod Classic will continue to sell anywhere else but their online clearance store. At some point the number of buyers will drop to a point that continuing to produce more of the same tried-and-true iPod won't make sense to Apple. I think that's probably this year, but it's just a guess.

The rumors of the iPod Classic's death have been greatly exaggerated.

For your sake, I hope you're right.
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post #50 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post
 

Thats an interesting perspective, but it still falls short because it has nothing to do with a 7.9" tablet being more desirable in any way than 9.7" 

 

The factor is Price, and nothing more.

 

I hadn't realised just how knowledgeable some of the readers here are.  It must be quite difficult to obtain data on each and every purchase of an iPad.  I'd love to know your methodology.

 

Makes one wonder why Apple doesn't produce a 1 inch tablet and sell it for $50.

post #51 of 106
Just sitting here reminiscing…where are all the naysayers who a little over a year ago insisted that Apple would never release a smaller iPad? The 9.7” size was the perfect size, Steve Jobs said so. You’d have to include a file to whittle down your finger to use anything smaller than the [regular sized] iPad. It would be too complicated for developers to have to support different screen sizes. Etc, etc.

What a difference a year makes... LOL
post #52 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post
 

 

Nope, $100 is WAAAY to slim of a difference between iPad & iPad mini w/ retina display. Never happen.

 

There is a reason why the iPad mini is $329. Actually, several dozen very good reasons. That's not going to change.

I don't think so; there's a good chance that the iPad mini will replace the iPad 2 at the $399 price point and that the iPad 2 may very well be discontinued this year. It's easier to see the iPad 2 being retired rather than bumping its processor specs-too much fragmentation at this point.

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post #53 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


If a retina mini gets the same specs as the 5th gen (which I think it should) then I have no problem with a price increase. But that would have to go with a price reduction on the current mini. Add A6 to the current mini and drop the price to $279-$299.

Yes.

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post #54 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Thats an interesting perspective, but it still falls short because it has nothing to do with a 7.9" tablet being more desirable in any way than 9.7" 

The factor is Price, and nothing more.

Price is "a" factor. One of many. To say that it's nothing more is both arrogant and ignorant. I personally know several people who have a full size iPad but wish they had the mini and some are planning on "upgrading" to a mini. They've already spent the money on a full size iPad. If price was was the ONLY factor as you claim, why would they then go out and spend MORE money to get a mini?
post #55 of 106
The great thing about analyst forecasts is that if Apple doesn't meet their predictions, Apple is failing. It's never that the analysts are wrong.

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post #56 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wiggin View Post

Just sitting here reminiscing…where are all the naysayers who a little over a year ago insisted that Apple would never release a smaller iPad? The 9.7” size was the perfect size, Steve Jobs said so. You’d have to include a file to whittle down your finger to use anything smaller than the [regular sized] iPad. It would be too complicated for developers to have to support different screen sizes. Etc, etc.

What a difference a year makes... LOL

Jobs referred (alluded) to 7" tablets of that time. That is what was o nthe market and clearly the devices her had referred to. The iPad mini has a display that is 40% larger in area than typical 7" diagonal 16:9 aspect ratio tablet displays. LOL

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post #57 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Read much?

Yo can either speculate based on nothing intelligent whatsoever....or you can rule out the impossible first...and then whatever you're left with is the truth.

No matter how much you might like or not like it.

How so you know what's possible and impossible?

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #58 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post
 

Thats an interesting perspective, but it still falls short because it has nothing to do with a 7.9" tablet being more desirable in any way than 9.7" 

 

The factor is Price, and nothing more.

I'm looking at the iPad and the rumoured retina mini and can afford either one. I'm getting the mini because of it's form factor. To say "the factor is Price, and nothing more" makes you sound a little full of yourself.

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post #59 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post
 

 

I hadn't realised just how knowledgeable some of the readers here are.  It must be quite difficult to obtain data on each and every purchase of an iPad.  I'd love to know your methodology.

 

Makes one wonder why Apple doesn't produce a 1 inch tablet and sell it for $50.

ROFL!!

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post #60 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post
 

Thats an interesting perspective, but it still falls short because it has nothing to do with a 7.9" tablet being more desirable in any way than 9.7" 

 

The factor is Price, and nothing more.

My wife has a mini- I think I could somehow find a way, in my overwhelming poverty, to spring the extra $70 to get an iPad 2.  Maybe sell an organ.  $70 is so much!

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wiggin View Post

arrogant and ignorant

Perfect description.

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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post #61 of 106
iPad mini Retina :

I'm in. My local Apple Store Genius Bar (by straw poll) is all in.

If they introduce this, they will have monster sales and it will be back-ordered weeks.

A year ago I held-off buying an iPhone 5 because I really wanted an iPad mini, but no Retina, so no deal. Now I'm really glad I waited. First, iPad mini. Then, new battery for my iP4S as I wait another year for iP6.
post #62 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post
 

I can see the Mini outselling the iPad 5. It's all about mobility ! (And price!)

 

I also think Apple with go Retina on the Mini. Remember last year how quickly Apple replaced the 30 pin connector on the entire iPad line?

 

Apple likes uniformity in their product lines.

Or they'll add a retina mini: they also like to tier their products, stills selling the ipad 2 etc. for that reason. Give consumers, ne buyers, a choice.

post #63 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiao-zhi View Post

iPad mini Retina :

I'm in. My local Apple Store Genius Bar (by straw poll) is all in.

If they introduce this, they will have monster sales and it will be back-ordered weeks.

A year ago I held-off buying an iPhone 5 because I really wanted an iPad mini, but no Retina, so no deal. Now I'm really glad I waited. First, iPad mini. Then, new battery for my iP4S as I wait another year for iP6.

That's how I scheduled my iPad buy: held off on the 2 and went with the 3 immediately. For iPads, for me anyway, it's a lot about the visual and I can tell the difference.

 

Going to go LTE or WiFi only? That's the puzzle for me.

post #64 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carthusia View Post
 

Jobs referred (alluded) to 7" tablets of that time. That is what was o nthe market and clearly the devices her had referred to. The iPad mini has a display that is 40% larger in area than typical 7" diagonal 16:9 aspect ratio tablet displays. LOL

 

I guess some people never know when they've lost the argument.

LOL!

post #65 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by GQB View Post
 

Talk to me in a year when the early adopter rush for the 's' has passed and the 'c' has had a full year to establish itself as a bit of a cost saver for people who don't need the specific features of the 's'

 

'The plural of "anecdote" is not "data"'.

If I were to imagine the 5'c' will be 99c in a year.  It will be selling like hotcakes as the late adopters children get their phones.

the 6 and 6c will be released (6'c' = 5s capabilities + ? .  6?  who know?)

 

and with it's lower manufacturing margins, one can assume it's off-contract price will erode faster (once the manufacturing costs have depreciated) than the 4 and 4s, so it may be even more of a cost saver.  In the end, you're right, but less about a 'cost saver' and more about retail and manufacturing margins. 

 

My other guess is that China Mobile has run into a stumbling block in it's LTE roll-out (likely Apple's back pressure requirement to state that the xx% of China Mobile's geography is supported by LTE…  in no way can Apple have the 'fastest phone' 5s look slow), and projected 5c sales will be dampened until CM meets it's end of the release agreement.

post #66 of 106

here is Job's quote about 7 inch tablets:

 

"There are clear limits of how close you can place physical elements on a touch screen, before users cannot reliably tap, flick or pinch them. This is one of the key reasons we think the 10-inch screen size is the minimum size required to create great tablet apps."

 

Most interesting thing is he said 10-inch was the MINIMUM.  Could a bigger iPad been in R&D while Job's was still alive?  I think a bigger iPad would be key to maintaining margins for the iPad business and expanding its reach in enterprise.  The new trend for Apple is to offer more products at more price points.  Here is my dream line up for 2014:

 

iPad Mini - Plastic, no retina, no fingerprint $299

iPad Mini Retina - A7, fingerprint $399

iPad Classic - $499

iPad X - $599 - 12 inch screen

 

Also add a docking station/keyboard for enterprise use with the larger iPads

post #67 of 106

..."though there are concerns about supply constraints leading into the holiday shopping season."

 

When have there ever NOT been concerns about supply constraints? This meme seems to have become standard FUD lately. Apple is doomed because, while it makes great products that people love, it can't make enough of them so... doomed.

post #68 of 106
Well... all this talk about whether the iPad Mini will have Retina or not, A7X or not, will cost $329 or not...

Still doesn't address the big question:

Why is it: when Milie Cyrus gets naked and licks a hammer it's called art -- when I do it, I get wasted and asked to leave Home Depot?
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
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post #69 of 106
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post
How so you know what's possible and impossible?

 

By selling a model of every screen size that can physically exist.

 

Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post
Why is it: when Milie Cyrus gets naked and licks a hammer it's called art -- when I do it, I get wasted and asked to leave Home Depot?

 

“Sir, please don’t lick the hammers.”

“No, sir, we do not have a wrecking ball on-site.”

“Sir, please put your clothes back on.”

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

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post #70 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Based on what? What is it about iPad mini's sales that qualifies you to make such a ridiculous statement?

You're wrong, of course, based on both data and logic.

The fact is people expect one or both of these things:

Technology to get cheaper over time
Technology to get better over time

So if Apple keeps the mini the same as it is consumers will expect the price to drop. And if the make it better by adding retina display, touch id, etc. consumers i think will be willing to pay a bit more for those features.

The other aspect is competiton. Competitor tablets are getting better. You may think they're garbage because they don't run iOS or have the iOS ecosystem but in terms of hardware they're competitive and in some cases better than the mini. Why would Apple let the competiton catch up? Your arguement wreaks to me of arrogance, of Apple thinking as long as something has an apple logo on it people will buy it.
post #71 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Its CHEAPER. 

Good grief. Do you people honestly believe that this would be the same if the iPad and iPad mini were the same price?

Good grief. Do you not get that some people prefer the SMALLER FORM FACTOR? iPad mini is a better reading device and is much more portable. It's not all about price.
post #72 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xiao-zhi View Post

iPad mini Retina :

I'm in. My local Apple Store Genius Bar (by straw poll) is all in.

If they introduce this, they will have monster sales and it will be back-ordered weeks.

A year ago I held-off buying an iPhone 5 because I really wanted an iPad mini, but no Retina, so no deal. Now I'm really glad I waited. First, iPad mini. Then, new battery for my iP4S as I wait another year for iP6.

This. If we don't see a retina mini this year I will tell friends and family not to buy one. Because we know Apple won't go a whole 12 months without releasing one.
post #73 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Based on what? What is it about iPad mini's sales that qualifies you to make such a ridiculous statement?

You're wrong, of course, based on both data and logic.

The fact is people expect one or both of these things:

Technology to get cheaper over time
Technology to get better over time

So if Apple keeps the mini the same as it is consumers will expect the price to drop. And if the make it better by adding retina display, touch id, etc. consumers i think will be willing to pay a bit more for those features.

The other aspect is competiton. Competitor tablets are getting better. You may think they're garbage because they don't run iOS or have the iOS ecosystem but in terms of hardware they're competitive and in some cases better than the mini. Why would Apple let the competiton catch up? Your arguement wreaks to me of arrogance, of Apple thinking as long as something has an apple logo on it people will buy it.

Here's an interesting review supporting your argument that other tablets are competitive:
Quote:
The Amazon Kindle HDX is a powerful, capable device with one of the best displays we’ve ever seen. Amazon has produced a top-tier device whose only condition is adoption of its services. If you’re a longtime Amazon Video and MP3 customer, that's great news.

The Good

Through calibration, this is now the best screen on an Android tablet
Performance that bests almost everything we've seen
A focused interface that gives you easy access to the content you want
Free tech support through Mayday
Fantastic battery life


The Bad

No Google means the company's communication services aren't there
The solid body is marred by the shiny plastic piece on the back and mushy buttons
If you're used to the stock Android experience, you might have trouble finding what you want
Accessing files outside of Amazon's ecosystem is a challenge


The Ugly

Ads: they're almost everywhere

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2013/10/the-amazon-kindle-fire-hdx-a-tablet-apart/
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post #74 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

This. If we don't see a retina mini this year I will tell friends and family not to buy one. Because we know Apple won't go a whole 12 months without releasing one.

I think it depends on a many technological and cost challenges. 4x as many pixels will be easier now but will it be enough to allow for a not too much thicker, not too much heavier, and not too much more expensive iPad Mini? These are variables that we can only hope and guess at.
post #75 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post
 

 

The 'proper' iPad is by my definition the one that is selling best.  Therefore the answer is yes, by definition.  According to Gartner, the Mini achieved 60% of combined sales in 1Q and subsequent data is showing the trend towards 7/8" tablets is increasing.  The 'improper' tablets seem to be losing favour ;)    Analysts are able to get approximations of this based on the ASP provided by Apple.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post
 

 

No, it is not. By most accounts it is either equal or less overall units than iPad mini.

 

This is not the least bit surprising. The overwhelming majority of people would rather pay $329 than $499. This is the deciding factor.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post
 

Thats an interesting perspective, but it still falls short because it has nothing to do with a 7.9" tablet being more desirable in any way than 9.7" 

 

The factor is Price, and nothing more.

I disagree to a degree.  If it were price, the Mini would have flopped in the market it came into, and the iPad 4 would not have sold at all against the iPad2.

 

The factor is 'need' at the time.  'need' has many dimensions: portability, app performance, battery life, visual presentation, app sphere, build quality etc.  And the Uber need:  What qualities of the device best meet my individual job requirements for this device.

 

The Mini was competing in a space with the iPad3, and a whole slew of 'cheap' 6 and 7" tablets that were taking share purely on size and cost.   How much was Apple willing to remove from 'features' from the iPad3, to make the Mini compete on capability.

 

In the end, the Mini was released, but to further differentiate the Mini from the larger dimension, they parked an A6X into the iPad4.  at the same price.   They kept the '2' primarily as it was no cost to them (it was the same UI as the Mini), and kept the value chain differential appropriate.

 

for the last year, those that needed a smaller size had a previously unavailable option… We spent last year backfilling.

Next year, with 2 years of Minis, my guess is the sales will be less dramatic.  Those that need retina will their choice at the mini level and it will be a hot item.   Next year, we'll be more on a level field, and that's the ripe time for a new device (a retina 12"), to replace the 1024x768 factor retired with the iPad2 and the MiniOriginal, to spur sales and to start the 10" retirement party.

 

So no, it's not price… it's about individual value.

 

So my guess is that Apple has correctly determined that $329 is the value point for a 'top end' 8" device.  $499 for a 10" device. And they won't waver… just stuff more capability into that price point, and allow less 'value' to be sold for less (a $250 MiniOriginal, a $399 iPad(-1)

post #76 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post
 

..."though there are concerns about supply constraints leading into the holiday shopping season."

 

When have there ever NOT been concerns about supply constraints? This meme seems to have become standard FUD lately. Apple is doomed because, while it makes great products that people love, it can't make enough of them so... doomed.

The issue is that the glass will have to be different than just about any other glass made for Apple. That's more risk (unproven capacity).  This is not moving from a 4 to a 4s sort move.  this is like moving from the 4's' to a 5, which had both supply constraints and manufacturing constraints (new assembly technologies).

 

Retina mini will be a major demand (those waiting to move down from a iPad 2/3, and those who have a Mini now and demand a better experience) in the short term.   Hence the perfect storm of pent up demand, normal seasonal spike, and a risk of supply constraint.

post #77 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wiggin View Post

Just sitting here reminiscing…where are all the naysayers who a little over a year ago insisted that Apple would never release a smaller iPad? The 9.7” size was the perfect size, Steve Jobs said so. You’d have to include a file to whittle down your finger to use anything smaller than the [regular sized] iPad. It would be too complicated for developers to have to support different screen sizes. Etc, etc.

What a difference a year makes... LOL

Steve Jobs was referring to 7" tablets being to small. The iPad mini is 7.9" and has a much larger screen area compared to a 7" android tablet.
post #78 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crosslad View Post

Steve Jobs was referring to 7" tablets being to small. The iPad mini is 7.9" and has a much larger screen area compared to a 7" android tablet.

Those 7" tablets also have a much narrower/widescreen aspect ratio which reduces the area even if the iPad Mini had only been 7". The iPad Mini has nearly 50% more display area which really doesn't put it into the same league as those much smaller and less functional tablets.
post #79 of 106
From the latest on rumors of the iPad Mini - the 2013 iPad Mini 2 is only going to get a minor refresh - an upgraded A5X. No Retina version until 2014!
post #80 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by akqies View Post

Those 7" tablets also have a much narrower/widescreen aspect ratio which reduces the area even if the iPad Mini had only been 7". The iPad Mini has nearly 50% more display area which really doesn't put it into the same league as those much smaller and less functional tablets.


.....with the exception being its screen resolution. The discontinued Nook even has a better screen.
Bring on the Retina!
 
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