or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Verizon's iPhone activations imply Apple shipped at least 32M in Sept. quarter
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Verizon's iPhone activations imply Apple shipped at least 32M in Sept. quarter

post #1 of 30
Thread Starter 
Verizon's historical share of iPhone shipments suggest that Apple is on pace to have moved at least 32 million handsets last quarter.

iPhone 5s


Analyst Maynard Um of Wells Fargo Securities provided a breakdown of Verizon's importance to overall iPhone sales on Thursday. He noted that over the last six quarters, Verizon has accounted for an average of 11.6 percent of Apple's total iPhone shipments.

Verizon officially announced earlier Thursday that it activated about 3.9 million iPhones in the just-concluded September quarter. That accounted for 51 percent of all smartphone activations at America's largest wireless provider during the three-month period.

Verizon's 3.9 million iPhone activations would imply total shipments of 33.5 million iPhone units for the September quarter, if the carrier's historical 11.6 percent share were to hit the mark.

However, in the preceding quarter, Verizon took a slightly larger 12.2 percent share of total iPhone units. If that were to happen once again, it would imply total units of 31.7 million for the period.

Both of those numbers are higher than Um's forecast of 31 million iPhone units for the September quarter. The calculations are also higher than the 26 million iPhones Apple sold in the September 2012 quarter.

Apple's fourth quarter of fiscal 2013 includes over a week of sales of both the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c, both of which went on sale in late September. Sales of those devices reached 9 million in the first three days alone.

Apple will reveal exactly how many iPhones it shipped in the September quarter in its own quarterly earnings report, scheduled to be release after markets close on Monday, Oct. 28.
post #2 of 30
Were that to pan out, a 22% or so YoY improvement?

Nice.
post #3 of 30
It seems to me that during a launch weekend, Apple would be selling a higher percentage of phones through their own channels (online and brick and mortar both) while excitement is at its highest. Is this a fair assumption, or am I missing something?

(If that were the case, it would imply that the estimates in the article might not be optimistic enough...)
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
Reply
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
Reply
post #4 of 30
That CAN'T be right !!

Because All the Anal-ysts said it can't be. !!
post #5 of 30
Again... Earth shattering records. The stock seems to finally be holding up against negativity that is still circulating. A couple of months ago that 5c article were it to be about the 4s or 5 would have tanked the stock at least 2-3% points.. Instead it held its own. We might be finally seeing that upward trend we have been waiting for!
post #6 of 30

Apple also increased the global roll-out pace this cycle as well as added new channels, which I would guess would decrease (by how much I don't know) the percentage contribution of any established carrier.

post #7 of 30
More like ~15% YoY increase from 2012, but a lot lower than the ~37% YoY increase from 2011 to 2012.

Q1 equates to the rest of the industries Q4, and we'll see a full quarter of new 5S/C sales. If Apple sells less than 60m phones in their Q1, that will be 2 quarters of YoY sales % decline.
post #8 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

It seems to me that during a launch weekend, Apple would be selling a higher percentage of phones through their own channels (online and brick and mortar both) while excitement is at its highest. Is this a fair assumption, or am I missing something?

(If that were the case, it would imply that the estimates in the article might not be optimistic enough...)

Whatever Apple shipped/sold within their own stores would already be counted in carrier activations wouldn't it? I don't think Apple was selling any of the 5s or 5c's unlocked, thus they were activated at the time of purchase?
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #9 of 30
Get ready for a nice ride towards $640. People that sold or didn't buy in below $510 will soon learn to regret that.
post #10 of 30
There goes the share price... 1wink.gif

Mind not for rent, to any god or government.

Reply

Mind not for rent, to any god or government.

Reply
post #11 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

It seems to me that during a launch weekend, Apple would be selling a higher percentage of phones through their own channels (online and brick and mortar both) while excitement is at its highest. Is this a fair assumption, or am I missing something?

(If that were the case, it would imply that the estimates in the article might not be optimistic enough...)

The numbers above are quarterly activations, which can come from any source (Big Box [BBY, WMT, TGT] , Apple, Verizon stores, Verizon resellers)... Not sales.  So the estimate is inclusive all Apple Store Sales, Verizon Sales, Drop Ship sales, Target, Walmart, radio shack, etc etc etc.), who chose (if a new customer, or reupped with a new iPhone) the Verizon network last  quarter

post #12 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by helicopterben View Post
 

@ Tim Cook   P stock is up :lol:   Can you say Samsung is a threat? :p 

 

Also waiting to see GOOG rips AH today :err:   edit- I mean tomorrow!

 

 

Cook there she goes GOOGs :lol:

post #13 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Whatever Apple shipped/sold within their own stores would already be counted in carrier activations wouldn't it? I don't think Apple was selling any of the 5s or 5c's unlocked, thus they were activated at the time of purchase?

The Apple Store employee may not have realized they were selling unlocked - paying full price for a 5S/5C and not activating them in the store did result in unlocked. I bought GSM model and dropped the SIM from my 5 into it. When I plugged it into iTunes I was congratulated that my iPhone is now unlocked.

I'm not sure if this is possible on a Verizon/Sprint model. I also don't know if I would count as an activation as an AT&T.

Edit: I doubt the scenario above amounted to a statistically significant number of sales. And I have yet to sell the 5 so no activation from a handoff (yet). Know anyone that needs an AT&T (now unlocked) 5 64GB with a bit less than a year of AppleCare+ that's in very good condition? 1wink.gif
Edited by ChristophB - 10/17/13 at 3:32pm
post #14 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloydbm4 View Post

More like ~15% YoY increase from 2012, but a lot lower than the ~37% YoY increase from 2011 to 2012.

Q1 equates to the rest of the industries Q4, and we'll see a full quarter of new 5S/C sales. If Apple sells less than 60m phones in their Q1, that will be 2 quarters of YoY sales % decline.

Are you sure about this? If I remember right they sold less than 40m in FQ1 2011 (the december quarter) and less than 50m in FQ1 2012. How will there be a sales decline if they sell less than 60m?

 

Just checked the number from last year's September quarter, which was 26.9m. If they sell 31.7m this quarter that would be nearly 18% increase. The other number that was mentioned was 33.5m which would mean over 24%.


Edited by jonshf - 10/17/13 at 2:31pm
post #15 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Whatever Apple shipped/sold within their own stores would already be counted in carrier activations wouldn't it?

Ahhh, that makes sense. Thanks.
(I knew I must be missing something...)
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
Reply
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
Reply
post #16 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloydbm4 View Post

More like ~15% YoY increase from 2012, but a lot lower than the ~37% YoY increase from 2011 to 2012.

Q1 equates to the rest of the industries Q4, and we'll see a full quarter of new 5S/C sales. If Apple sells less than 60m phones in their Q1, that will be 2 quarters of YoY sales % decline.

Oh, noes! A YoY sales growth percentage decline! 60M iPhones sold this quarter would "only" be a 25.5% increase! And the year before they'd only had a 39% increase! How ghastly!

 

And if Apple sells, say, 67M iPhones, that would be a 40% increase YoY, and YoY sales growth percentage would be flat! Oh, the horror!

 

Google just had revenue growth of 12% YoY, and last I checked their stock was up 8% in after hours trading.

 

Oh, that's right: This kind of "analysis" is only meaningful if it's Apple.

post #17 of 30
I guess once you have one data point everyone will always start the comparisons between what happened last time and what could happen this time. So OK you can say that based on the Verizon numbers it is implies 32 M iphones being sold in the 3rd quarter.

On the other hand one point on a graph does not define anything especially when all the other previous points are subject to change ... considerably from one year to another.

Apple also is selling the new iPhones in more countries and with more carriers. In addition, we know that more persons switch from Android to iPhones than the opposite so how do you predict if that accelerates or decelerates. you can't.

I own a lot of Apple stock and certainly hope that the number is at least 32 Million iPhones being sold in Q3.

I would have to say it is going to be substantively better than last year but what does that mean? 32 million for Q3 will be about 20% increase. I think that is great but will wall street think so.
post #18 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloydbm4 View Post

More like ~15% YoY increase from 2012, but a lot lower than the ~37% YoY increase from 2011 to 2012.

Q1 equates to the rest of the industries Q4, and we'll see a full quarter of new 5S/C sales. If Apple sells less than 60m phones in their Q1, that will be 2 quarters of YoY sales % decline.


To quote you: I would love to know where you get this kind of bogus info?

 

Furthermore, you seem to assert that majority is expecting YOY sales % increases every year.  Sales % increase (by itself) is great enough, what is your reason/motive for bringing up YOY increases?  What is its relevance and how does it measure success or failure?

post #19 of 30
And Google beat the street estimate and stock is up $72 (!) after market. That's 8%! Apple will beat street estimates and their stock will probably drop 5% 1rolleyes.gif

EDIT: oh and Google's quarter was decent, but nothing to write home about. Certainly not worth an 8% increase. I'm sure that will settle down tomorrow morning but still shows how ridiculous Wall Street valuations are.
Edited by Rogifan - 10/17/13 at 4:20pm
post #20 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloydbm4 View Post

More like ~15% YoY increase from 2012, but a lot lower than the ~37% YoY increase from 2011 to 2012.

Q1 equates to the rest of the industries Q4, and we'll see a full quarter of new 5S/C sales. If Apple sells less than 60m phones in their Q1, that will be 2 quarters of YoY sales % decline.

I dont understand how selling 60 millions iphones in Q1 2014 could result in a YoY decline since last year in Q1 2013 Apple sold 47 millions iphones. If you implied that it could be negative because the YoY would be less than the YoY of 2011/2012, they you are really going out of youre way to turn a positive into a negative.

Btw 60 millions in Q1 2014 would be a very good number.
Edited by herbapou - 10/17/13 at 5:30pm
post #21 of 30

Looks like  a good number for the iPhone, but it will have to be if the other lines arent growing.

 

The focus on declining YoY increases is to evaluate the growth left in that segment.  I cant even believe I have to write that.  

 

As for next quarter they sold 43 million phones in Q1 2012.  A 20% beat would be about 51.5 million phones and put them on pace to see about 20 million more phones than the year before.  Everything being equal that's about a 7% increase in the EPS yoy.  

 

None of this means the products aren't great or the company isnt healthy it's simply means the stock's explosive growth is over until a profitable new product line comes out.  

post #22 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

Looks like  a good number for the iPhone, but it will have to be if the other lines arent growing.

The focus on declining YoY increases is to evaluate the growth left in that segment.  I cant even believe I have to write that.  

As for next quarter they sold 43 million phones in Q1 2012.  A 20% beat would be about 51.5 million phones and put them on pace to see about 20 million more phones than the year before.  Everything being equal that's about a 7% increase in the EPS yoy.  

None of this means the products aren't great or the company isnt healthy it's simply means the stock's explosive growth is over until a profitable new product line comes out.  

None of youre metrics are true, you are pulling numbers out of youre butt?

Q1 2012 - 37 millions iphones
Q1 2013 - 47 millions iphones
post #23 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post

Google just had revenue growth of 12% YoY, and last I checked their stock was up 8% in after hours trading.

Oh, that's right: This kind of "analysis" is only meaningful if it's Apple.

Google is on a steady EPS climb while Apple EPS is flat for almost a full year now. The stock behave like it should imo. Apple needs to prove it can growth EPS again to go back to real stock price movement.

In 2013 Apple had small unit sales increase but with decreasing margins, so its flat on EPS. On the other hand its looking good for Q1 2014 since its looks like we will have significant unit sales increase with better margins. So probably better EPS.
post #24 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


None of youre metrics are true, you are pulling numbers out of youre butt?

Q1 2012 - 37 millions iphones
Q1 2013 - 47 millions iphones

 

My apology.  I did indicated incorrectly it was Q1 2012 when it should have been Q1 2013, and for some reason I really screwed up on the iPhone number.  In any event it was 47.8 million and the principal remains the same

 

In any event that just sets the bar even higher and the point remains the same.  With a 20% beat now being close to 57 million phones and still having the same 7% impact on quarterly EPS.  Hey, that's great, but next year are they going to do over 70 million in the quarter to keep that yoy growth at 20%? and the year after that about 84 million?

 

Any thing wrong with my butt on that?

post #25 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

In any event that just sets the bar even higher and the point remains the same.  With a 20% beat now being close to 57 million phones and still having the same 7% impact on quarterly EPS.  Hey, that's great, but next year are they going to do over 70 million in the quarter to keep that yoy growth at 20%? and the year after that about 84 million?

Any thing wrong with my butt on that?

Yes. Last year 47 millions iphones came with very low margins. Lets assume they sell 57 millions iphones (probably too bullish) that is 21% YoY increase in unit sales. Margins will be better than last year by at least 2%, probably 3%. That means EPS will be much better.
post #26 of 30

"Yes. Last year 47 millions iphones came with very low margins. Lets assume they sell 57 millions iphones (probably too bullish) that is 21% YoY increase in unit sales. Margins will be better than last year by at least 2%, probably 3%. That means EPS will be much better."

 

I guess if they could get margins back up to the mid-40s it would move the share price, but that's a one time even and isnt a substitute for Revenue/EPS growth in the long run.  Now you are calling 36% "very low," but even next quarter only projects to be around 38%.  That will certainly be a positive for EPS, as will the share buybacks, but it's not the same as long term growth.

 

We'll see how next year plays out.


Edited by tkell31 - 10/18/13 at 8:44am
post #27 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31 View Post

"Yes. Last year 47 millions iphones came with very low margins. Lets assume they sell 57 millions iphones (probably too bullish) that is 21% YoY increase in unit sales. Margins will be better than last year by at least 2%, probably 3%. That means EPS will be much better."

I guess if they could get margins back up to the mid-40s it would move the share price, but that's a one time even and isnt a substitute for Revenue/EPS growth in the long run.  Now you are calling 36% "very low," but even next quarter only projects to be around 38%.  That will certainly be a positive for EPS, as will the share buybacks, but it's not the same as long term growth.

We'll see how next year plays out.

Apple never stop growing in terms of revenu and unit sales. It stop growing EPS on lower margins. That effect will stop in Q1 2014 for a least a year on better margins on the 5c and 5s. The ipad mini margins should also improve, it was a new product last year, now its just a refresh.

The risk that remains are unit sales decrease or a bad ipad refresh but it doesnt look we are getting lower sales. So its time to get bullish on Apple imo.
Edited by herbapou - 10/18/13 at 9:15am
post #28 of 30
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


Apple never stop growing in terms of revenu and unit sales. It stop growing EPS on lower margins. That effect will stop in Q1 2014 for a least a year on better margins on the 5c and 5s. The ipad mini margins should also improve, it was a new product last year, now its just a refresh.

The risk that remains are unit sales decrease or a bad ipad refresh but it doesnt look we are getting lower sales. So its time to get bullish on Apple imo.

 

Revenue has been pretty flat the last two quarters, and growth as a % has slowed dramatically.  The stock price reflects that and will continue to reflect it.

post #29 of 30
With the added carriers and nations in opening weekend, wouldn't Verizon likely lose share of overall iPhone sales? I realize that AAPL is making some of its best headway in the US, eating into Blackberry and other companies' market shares. Nonetheless, I'd think Verizon will play a smaller, albeit still meaningful, role in total unit sales this year. Any thoughts or insights?
post #30 of 30

My point, if it was unclear, is that Verizon's 3.9M would imply a larger Q4 number if it is making up 8-9% of sales this year instead of 11-12%. My apologies for the incomplete comment.

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPhone
  • Verizon's iPhone activations imply Apple shipped at least 32M in Sept. quarter
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Verizon's iPhone activations imply Apple shipped at least 32M in Sept. quarter