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Research shows Sept. quarter iPhone demand at 37M units, though Apple likely shipped less

post #1 of 50
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If Apple could have met iPhone 5s demand in the recently concluded September quarter, the company could have sold as many as 37 million units, new data from Morgan Stanley has revealed.

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Analyst Katy Huberty revealed on Friday that her firm's "Smartphone Tracker" research shows demand for the iPhone in the September quarter at 37 million units. However, due to supply constraints, she believes Apple likely shipped around 34.5 million units.

Verizon, the largest wireless carrier in the U.S., reported this week that it faced iPhone shortages at the end of the quarter, when the iPhone 5s launched and was faced with considerable demand. The carrier also revealed that it activated 3.9 million iPhones in the September quarter, a number that implies Apple likely shipped at least 32 million total units in the three-month period.

Huberty believes Apple will report revenue of $37 billion, gross margin of 37 percent, and earnings per share of $8 for the last quarter.

Phones


For the current December quarter, she expects Apple to ship a record 55 million units --?ahead of Wall Street consensus at 53 million. The "key variable" for the holiday season, Huberty said, is supply of the iPhone 5s, of which supply remains constrained.

Huberty's forecast calls for the iPhone 5s to account for 45 percent of total iPhone shipments this quarter, with gross margin growing to 38.7 percent, revenue reaching a record $55.6 billion, and earnings per share hitting $14.30. In her model, if the iPhone 5s were to instead account for half of all iPhone sales, gross margin would add 10 basis points, or 0.1 percent, to Apple's gross margins for the quarter, as well as an additional 16 cents in earnings per share.

Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed its price target of $540 for AAPL stock, though Huberty's "bull case" for the company sees its shares growing to $686 within the next year.
post #2 of 50
What the heck is "smartphone tracker"?

Regardless- Demand for a completely sold out product is greater than the supply? We needed research for this conclusion?

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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post #3 of 50
But I am an analyst, I have to analyze and report nonsense.
post #4 of 50
Apple shipped 26 millions iphones with 8.6 EPS in Q4 2012. So anything above 32 millions iphones is good in terms of unit sales. The problem is EPS, if Apple cant do better than $8.6 we are in a decline again.

Q1 2014 looks better, better unit sales AND margins should results in better EPS.
post #5 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

Apple shipped 26 millions iphones with 8.6 EPS in Q4 2012. So anything above 32 millions iphones is good in terms of unit sales. The problem is EPS, if Apple cant do better than $8.6 we are in a decline again.

Q1 2014 looks better, better unit sales AND margins should results in better EPS.

how true, the analysis are beginning to posture so to either make apple looks successful or a failure. At this point they are having a hard time figuring out what side of the fence they need to be on. As we read else where we have analysis putting out miss leading information and hedge fund and money managers are getting hold of the information ahead of time and setting up investment strategies to take advantage of the news, but it only works if all the analysis are leaning one way or another. At least Citibank got their hands slap for doing this last year. I am not sure why SEC is not fining the analysis since they are the one how are driving the activities.

post #6 of 50
Doesn't matter as Apple stock will get hammered either way on the 29th. Meanwhile the Google lovefest continues....stock is up 10% pre market and getting closer to $1000 share.
Edited by Rogifan - 10/18/13 at 6:32am
post #7 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Doesn't matter as Apple stock will get hammered either way on the 29th. Meanwhile the Google lovefest continues....stock is up 10% pre market and getting closer to $1000 share.

Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.

For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS
post #8 of 50
Katy Huberty. If she's ever right, it'll be entirely coincidental.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #9 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Katy Huberty. If she's ever right, it'll be entirely coincidental.
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2old4fun View Post

But I am an analyst, I have to analyze and report nonsense.

Sure, go ahead and mock them. But they make 6 figures doing this. Don't think they really care about your mockery.

post #10 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Doesn't matter as Apple stock will get hammered either way on the 29th. Meanwhile the Google lovefest continues....stock is up 10% pre market and getting closer to $1000 share.

 

It is increasingly clear that people here care more about their few $AAPL shares than they care about the technology and products. Too bad.
post #11 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post

What the heck is "smartphone tracker"?

Regardless- Demand for a completely sold out product is greater than the supply? We needed research for this conclusion?

 

Katy: I just wanted to get my name into the news cycle. 

post #12 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.

For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS

You really think Google is fairly valued? You think their quarter warrants a 10% increase? I think the market is in a bubble an over valued. Apple and Microsoft are maybe two tech companies more fairly valued. Facebook is up 5% today with a market cap of $133B. If it keeps current trajectory Facebook will have a higher market cap than Verizon, Merck, Coca Cola, Oracle, Citigroup, Visa. It already has surpassed companies like Pepsi, Cisco, Comcast, Intel Qualcomm and Disney. I think that's crazy. And don't even get me started on Amazon, a company valued at $140B even though it barely turns a profit. Apple probably makes more in one quarter than Amazon ever has in its entire existence. The bubble is going to burst. And it will be ugly when that happens.
post #13 of 50

I received my gold 5s today. This was surprising since I got a call from Sprint on Monday apologizing for the long delay and telling me that it would likely ship around 3 to 4 weeks. Any other people here receiving the gold 5s and were told it would be several more weeks? Maybe Apple is starting to really ramp up supply to meet demand faster than anticipated. 

 

Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. 

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Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. 

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post #14 of 50
]
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

That just how it works.

Yeah, and what happened in 2009? It's all bullshit.
post #15 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post
 

I received my gold 5s today. This was surprising since I got a call from Sprint on Monday apologizing for the long delay and telling me that it would likely ship around 3 to 4 weeks. Any other people here receiving the gold 5s and were told it would be several more weeks? Maybe Apple is starting to really ramp up supply to meet demand faster than anticipated. 

Good for you! :)

 

I'll be ordering mine (contract up in Nov). 5s, champagne/gold with a leather product (Red) case. 

 

My GF's sister just got a yellow 5c last night, and this not a criticism, but I was surprised how heavy it was compared to the 5. It's almost as heavy as my 4s. Of course, I didn't say anything to her about it. Still a very beautiful phone. My GF is order a green one soon.

 

A couple of years ago, her sister and sister's boyfriend were so anti-Apple. BB's and HP crappy laptops. They lugged both their laptops and BB's to Paris. They called me from Paris here in Arizona and asked me to go over to their house and go to their HP desktops to check their email and read it to them. They could not access their email from their BB's or their laptops. They both have iPhones and MBA's and iPads now! :)


Edited by christopher126 - 10/18/13 at 7:30am
post #16 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

]
Yeah, and what happened in 2009? It's all bullshit.

Stock market seems to be about emotion these days. Google is up over $112 and has now crossed $1000. There'a nothing in their quarter that really warrants at 12% jump in their stock IMO. But Wall Street wanted to see google at $1000 so that's what we get.
post #17 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post


Speaking for myself, I am interested and concerned with all things Apple. Like many here, we loved Apple computers and the Apple philosophy before we ever bought stock in the company. Not quite sure what your motivations are.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #18 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.

For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS

It should be that simple, but it is not, there is more news out there that Google is having issue than the made up news that Apple is failing when in fact they continue to make more money than Google quarter over quarter. Google learned to pander to the analysis thus the reason to ignore that fact that google continues to make one bad investment after another. Apple will not pander to the analysis if anything they call them idiots for trying to predict the future based on miss information so the analysis bad mouth them every change they get.

 

I personally think Google are the end of their run and it is going to get hard and hard for them to keep it growing. read the ad on iOS products producing more ad revenue over an Android, Remember Android was Google vehicle into the mobile ad space and its failing miserably for them. Apple is teaming with M$ and yahoo these days this is only more bad news for Google on mobile ad space, Also less and less people are using desktop and laptops to doing their internet searches. Google knows this, thus the Android Strategy, which is not working for them.


Edited by Maestro64 - 10/18/13 at 1:46pm
post #19 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.

For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS

Who knows how many shares Apple bought back this quarter. My EPS estimate is over $10.
post #20 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by StruckPaper View Post
It is increasingly clear that people here care more about their few $AAPL shares than they care about the technology and products. Too bad.

 

I'm not sure how you derived at this conclusion. I doubt if too many people on here have any shares.

 

In the early days Apple had a vibe that struck a real positive chord with creative and intelligent people and, through thick and thin, that general feeling still exists today.

 

Apple's stuff is cool and I'm sure that's how most Apple fans feel.


Edited by island hermit - 10/18/13 at 8:12am
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post #21 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.

For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS

 

Well said!

 

The only thing I would perhaps take some exception to is your comment on EPS growth versus unit sale growth.  I suspect the market would cheer additional revenue growth even with flat EPS.  There is a concern that Apple isn't performing well enough in emerging markets.  Some growth (and frankly doing some damage to some of the Chinese/Taiwanese/Korean competition) would be welcome as long as the overall Apple brand isn't damaged.    With all the stories over the last few days about the 5C being a flop, I wonder if Apple hasn't squandered an opportunity to do some damage to Samsung, Lenovo etc. and grab some market share in China, India etc.

post #22 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post
 

 

Well said!

 

The only thing I would perhaps take some exception to is your comment on EPS growth versus unit sale growth.  I suspect the market would cheer additional revenue growth even with flat EPS.  There is a concern that Apple isn't performing well enough in emerging markets.  Some growth (and frankly doing some damage to some of the Chinese/Taiwanese/Korean competition) would be welcome as long as the overall Apple brand isn't damaged.    With all the stories over the last few days about the 5C being a flop, I wonder if Apple hasn't squandered an opportunity to do some damage to Samsung, Lenovo etc. and grab some market share in China, India etc.

 

I keep thinking that any indication of Apple's margin going south along with flat eps will send AAPL to $300.

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post #23 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

Apple shipped 26 millions iphones with 8.6 EPS in Q4 2012. So anything above 32 millions iphones is good in terms of unit sales. The problem is EPS, if Apple cant do better than $8.6 we are in a decline again.

Q1 2014 looks better, better unit sales AND margins should results in better EPS.

 

Well said, but not only does it have to show better EPS, but that it can continue to increase EPS.   With iPhones accounting for 50% of the EPS that means a staggering number of iPhones need to be sold each year and even more need to be sold the following year to attract investors.  One quarter isnt going to change the last year around.

 

Needs another product line or some other revenue stream to bring the growth in the share price back.

post #24 of 50
Apple shipped FEWER (not LESS)
post #25 of 50
Originally Posted by Agee0726 View Post
Apple shipped FEWER (not LESS)

 

Apple doomed by semantics.™

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #26 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I keep thinking that any indication of Apple's margin going south along with flat eps will send AAPL to $300.

Next quarters we will compare to last year quarters with low margins. So margins should improve on a YoY basis. Add massive buybacks and more unit sales I dont see how EPS can remain flat. In Q1 2014 Apple EPS should be back to growth.
post #27 of 50

Breaking News:

 

Apple stock tanks after shipments of the new iPhone failed to meet the 80 million mark analysts had projected for the 3rd quarter. 

post #28 of 50
Morgan Stanley = Analysts = Ignore anything they say
post #29 of 50

The stock market will value a company because it's growing.  It can be a little hot dog stand, but if EPS are going way up, the stock price will be high.  APPL can be the most successful and best tech company, and be way UNDERvalued.

 

However, I think Apple's EPS (personally) will go up.  

 

Apple is buying up shares, right?  Won't that impact EPS?  And people are buying a tidal wave of high margin 5S's, a product that will be in ever greater supply while being produced with ever lower manufacturing costs.

 

Just my personal opinion!

post #30 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boltsfan17 View Post
 

Breaking News:

 

Apple stock tanks after shipments of the new iPhone failed to meet the 80 million mark analysts had projected for the 3rd quarter. 

 

Some of those projections come from calculations of necessary iPhone sales to maintain yoy eps growth.

 

80 million would definitely send the stock up... unless, of course, iPad shipments tanked drastically... which I can't see happening.

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post #31 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post
 

Also, Apple is reaffirming its identity as an aspirational/premium brand.  People want its pricier offerings like the 5S.  I don't know that much about finance, but it just HAS to be good for EPS when a high margin product like the 5S is a monster hit, and you just know that the cost to produce the 5S will only decrease over the coming months...

 

Hmmmm... apparently, if comments on here are any indication, the cost of producing the 5s will remain the same throughout its lifespan.

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post #32 of 50
Apple can't win with analysts. Had Apple made 40 million this story would be weak demand for new iPhones.
post #33 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

Some of those projections come from calculations of necessary iPhone sales to maintain yoy eps growth.

 

80 million would definitely send the stock up... unless, of course, iPad shipments tanked drastically... which I can't see happening.

IPad sales was unimpressive last quarter. But iPhone shipment was notably above estimates. That gave $AAPL a decent boost. So it would seem iPhone numbers drive $AAPL more than anything else.

post #34 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

I keep thinking that any indication of Apple's margin going south along with flat eps will send AAPL to $300.


You can think whatever you want.  Even if EPS is flat this quarter, the probability of going anywhere near $300 is very very low.  I'm thinking it's going to stay at/near $500.  And I'm putting my money where my mouth is, how about you?

post #35 of 50

Where do these "people" live where they can't get a phone? Still plenty of 5C and 5S around my city/state. Time to buy up a few, then resell them on ebay and make a few $$$.

post #36 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.

For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS


PE of 30 (goog) as opposed to 13 (aapl)?  Are you kidding me?

It is indeed mystery/magic not common sense.  Especially when considering ad revenue in mobile.  Mobile devices are dramatically increasing, mobile space is then more and more valuable...where is goog's EPS in that category?

 

Don't get me wrong, goog has lots of things going for it, I'm not a hater.  But don't tell people that 30/13 PE is common sense.  That's crazy talk.

post #37 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post
 


You can think whatever you want.  Even if EPS is flat this quarter, the probability of going anywhere near $300 is very very low.  I'm thinking it's going to stay at/near $500.  And I'm putting my money where my mouth is, how about you?

 

Are we grumpy today.

 

I actually don't think AAPL is going to stay at/near $500. I actually think it has a good chance of hitting $600 after the 1st fiscal quarter numbers are released in January.

 

... and I still stick by the idea that AAPL will sink to $300 if margins are drastically hit at any time over the next year or two.

 

By the way... anyone who puts their money where their mouth is isn't a good investor. You should put your money into something that provides more solid growth.


Edited by island hermit - 10/18/13 at 1:09pm
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post #38 of 50
S
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

You really think Google is fairly valued? You think their quarter warrants a 10% increase? I think the market is in a bubble an over valued. Apple and Microsoft are maybe two tech companies more fairly valued. Facebook is up 5% today with a market cap of $133B. If it keeps current trajectory Facebook will have a higher market cap than Verizon, Merck, Coca Cola, Oracle, Citigroup, Visa. It already has surpassed companies like Pepsi, Cisco, Comcast, Intel Qualcomm and Disney. I think that's crazy. And don't even get me started on Amazon, a company valued at $140B even though it barely turns a profit. Apple probably makes more in one quarter than Amazon ever has in its entire existence. The bubble is going to burst. And it will be ugly when that happens.

Support what u said but the truth is google intentionally earn less so they " grow" easily.
post #39 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post
 


PE of 30 (goog) as opposed to 13 (aapl)?  Are you kidding me?

It is indeed mystery/magic not common sense.  Especially when considering ad revenue in mobile.  Mobile devices are dramatically increasing, mobile space is then more and more valuable...where is goog's EPS in that category?

 

Don't get me wrong, goog has lots of things going for it, I'm not a hater.  But don't tell people that 30/13 PE is common sense.  That's crazy talk.

 

As someone else pointed out a while ago... AAPL had a high p/e at one time and Apple grew into it.

 

Could this be the reason behind investments in GOOG...

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post #40 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

Are we grumpy today.

 

I actually don't think AAPL is going to stay at/near $500. I actually think it has a good chance of hitting $600 after the 1st fiscal quarter numbers are released in January.

 

... and I still stick by the idea that AAPL will sink to $300 if margins are drastically hit at any time over the next year.

 

By the way... anyone who puts their money where their mouth is isn't a good investor. You should put your money into something that provides more solid growth.


grumpy?...ahem, yes a little. :-)

 

I'm just calling it as I see it, and don't appreciate terse posting doom/gloom (i.e. $300) based only on flat EPS this Q.

Let me rephrase, money/mouth is just calling posters out who like to say something to manipulate, if that's not you, my apologies, but again, that $300 post of yours kind of deserved it?  I'm in no way saying investors should put all their money in something just because they "believe" in it.

 

I'll un-grump myself now.;)

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