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Analyst predicts two iPhone releases per year after meeting with Apple's CEO, CFO

post #1 of 61
Thread Starter 
Apple's decision to split the iPhone lineup into a high-end flagship model and a more affordable mid-range offering sets the stage for the company to increase the frequency with which it updates the handsets, one analyst increasingly believes after meeting with the company's chief executive, Tim Cook.

iPhone 5s


In a Wednesday note to investors, Morgan Stanley Apple watcher Katy Huberty called the iPhone line divergence "a thoughtful approach" following conversations with Cook and Apple's Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer. Huberty believes Apple is now primed for "multiple refreshes per year" of the popular device, akin to the twin launches of iPad 3 and iPad 4 in 2012.

As the iPhone and iPad demand increasingly larger portions of Apple's resources and attention, the company's product cycle strategy does appear to be shifting. Apple's traditionally iPod-focused September event, for instance, now revolves around the iPhone, while the music players have not received any notable updates in 2013.

Huberty also sees services growing into a more prominent profit driver for Cupertino. She cites the potential advantages of integrating Apple's nearly 600 million "high-end" customer accounts, most linked to credit cards, with new hardware like the Touch ID fingerprint sensor to create "new services revenue streams."

The majority of Apple's existing service offerings are available for free or for relatively low cost. iTunes Match, for example, which stores a user's entire music collection in Apple's datacenters and allows for downloading and streaming that music to any of the user's devices, costs just $25 per year.

Many believe that Apple is in the early stages of a strategy that would use Touch ID alongside iOS 7's Bluetooth-based iBeacons functionality to create a new mobile payment system. Such a system, if implemented, could be a significant revenue source for Apple thanks to the size of the iOS device installed base alone.
post #2 of 61
Really......it took a meeting with cook to figure that out? They don't have anything new, so what else can they do?
post #3 of 61

No cogent rationale is provided. Just because Apple produced the iPad 3 and iPad 4 in the same year means we'll see new iPhone models released twice a year now? Huh-uh, I don't buy it.

post #4 of 61

"... Katy Huberty..."  <end reading>

Hmmmmmm...
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Hmmmmmm...
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post #5 of 61
well, excuse her - she's only an analyst 1wink.gif
post #6 of 61
Suuuuure she had a "meeting." Right. Hahahahahahaha!

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post #7 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post
Huberty also sees services growing into a more prominent profit driver for Cupertino. She cites the potential advantages of integrating Apple's nearly 600 million "high-end" customer accounts, most linked to credit cards, with new hardware like the Touch ID fingerprint sensor to create "new services revenue streams."

Every analyst's wet dream prediction. It comes up with such frequency its no wonder they believe themselves. I guess one day a 'services arm' of Apple may become an independent entity, but so far in it's history Apple has strived to offer integrated solutions where hardware is the revenue driver and software and services create the user experience and ecosystem for the hardware and user to operate within. Fantasize as they may - is there any evidence that this is about to change?

post #8 of 61
Here's what happens. When Apple releases a new flagship phone, people line up to buy it, and it takes a couple of months for production to catch up with demand. BUT, Apple has historically only offered one size flagship phone. As far as I'm concerned, it would have been better if Apple had released a larger screen model iPhone 6 months ago that was a larger version of the iPhone 5.

The would have created a lot of sales if they did.

So, fast forward to now.

Instead of making last year's flagship the cheaper model, they did a slight enhancement to the battery, stuck it in a colorful polycarb case and made that their second tier iPhone 5C as they came out out the updated iPhone 5 and called it the iPhone 5S.

I think it's a good strategy to make their second tier (eventually their entry level phone) out of a different and less expansive case. I think that's a wise move, but where Apple could have done better was to offer better colors.

But to flip flip every 6 or so months and announce a different sized model is what they SHOULD do and probably the only thing they CAN do due to availability of parts and even people to spit out two large demand products at the same time. Probably why Apple is shipping iPads and not the iPad mini 2's.

Either way, I'm looking forward to the next iPhone with a larger screen. I would like to see them add more RAM to the processor and spit them out with at least 2GB if not 4GB.
post #9 of 61
Ahem...

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/04/11/analyst-says-apple-may-launch-new-internet-service-killer-ios-app-after-meeting-with-management
Quote:
In a note to investors on Thursday, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who recently met with Apple management, said the company could debut new internet-based services as well as a "killer app" later this year.

In the near term, Huberty said Apple could make a surprise announcement at the upcoming Worldwide Developers Conference in June regarding a new type of internet service such as streaming music or a mobile payment system. She went on to say that Apple Internet Software and Service chief Eddy Cue is believed to be working to improve existing services like iCloud and Maps, but at the same time is planning to launch new initiatives.
post #10 of 61
Ugh...analysts. The dual iPad release lasted one year.
post #11 of 61

I am willing to believe that Apple COULD conceivably launch iPhones at two different points of the year. However, I believe Apple would not do something like release the iPhone 6 in the spring after debuting the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c in the fall. Instead, I could see Apple conceivably releasing a new addition to the iPhone 5 lineup--whether it's a larger iPhone or something else--that would satisfy demand for some segment of the market WITHOUT cutting into the creme-de-la-creme that is the current iPhone 5s or next fall's iPhone 6.

 

It's also what I see happening with the alleged (and still possibly fictitious) iPad Pro. They release their flagship product and their consumer-oriented product (i.e. iPhone 5s/5c and iPad Air/Mini) in the fall so that they benefit from the holiday shopping season, then their more niche product (say iPhone 5p, for Plus or Pro, and iPad Pro) in the spring.

 

Dividing the upgrade cycle that way would probably make a lot more sense just because it means a shorter drought between releases. This year was very long because all of Apple's major releases were in the fall, with very few new products (128GB iPads, Haswell MacBook Air, etc.) over the rest of the year to get excited about. It keeps Apple on the same once-a-year upgrade cycle for all their products, but spreads the launches out enough to keep people talking.

 

(See? I can pull this stuff out of my tuckus, too.)

post #12 of 61
It could work... they could break up updates to two times a year for both iPad and iPhone...

This is how I imagine it...

Spring 2014, we'll see the introduction of the iPad Pro; 4 core A7X, more RAM, larger battery, Touch ID (this could instead happen at WWDC where I could see Apple releasing Xcode for iOS to hit home the "Pro" aspect of the device.)

Fall 2014, iPad mini and Air updated, iPhone 6 debuts in two screen sizes. (iPhone 4s and 5s retired, iPhone 5c price drops.)

Spring 2015, iPad Pro updated, iPhone 5c updated to 6c and also comes in a second display size. (iPhone 5c price drops again or Apple retires it as well and begins a new pricing model.)

Somewhere in there, the iPod touch is also updated and it also gets a second model with larger display ~6" as an answer to the phablet market. The iPod brand is also used for new wearable products, iPod watch, iPod whatever, iPod etc... That extends the functionality of the iPod line into a new direction. (I'm guessing this is why we didn't see any iPod updates at all this year and why the iPod nano got a new form factor last year.)

Sometime in 2016, we'll see a new line of computers (a laptop and an AIO desktop) running iOS.
Edited by mjtomlin - 11/6/13 at 10:03am
Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
Reply
post #13 of 61

I see this is a very likely outcome. A Spring and Fall release. Spring could be a larger iPhone with Fall for the 4" models. If they decide to produce a larger iPhone a staggered release would make more sense to help with any production shortages and supply constraints. It would also help keep the excitement level up year round as opposed to now where interest in the iPhone fades somewhat in the 6 months before a refresh. As much as I hope for a larger iPhone it would suck for me personally since I just got a 5s though I would much prefer a larger iPhone but I would live. Hopefully I could get a decent price for my current 5s model and would just have to buy a larger version out of subsidy. 

post #14 of 61

A lobotomized monkey could predict that Apple is going to release two phones next year, since they did release two models this year, DUH!

 

As for me, I really don't give a crap about what any analyst says or predicts.

 

Instead of believing in whatever some analyst pulls out of their butt, I'd rather pull some rumor out of my own butt, and I'm hoping that Apple releases a large premium model iPad in 6 months, with a display that's around 12". I would definitely get one of those.

post #15 of 61
They haven't predicted the second coming of Steve, or maybe that's just been announced lol.
post #16 of 61
Apple loves the Dec qtr. after aligning the idevices to be released just prior, Apple won't alter its plans.
post #17 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post
 

A lobotomized monkey could predict that Apple is going to release two phones next year, since they did release two models this year, DUH!

 

As for me, I really don't give a crap about what any analyst says or predicts.

She is saying they will do 2 different release dates- maybe spring and fall- not 2 phones at the same time.

 

Not saying this is true, but just getting your story straight.  Your 2nd point definitely still holds water though.  :)  Although Rogifan did bring up a pretty solid point.

2014 27" Retina iMac i5, 2012 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air 2, iPad Mini 2, iPhone 6 Plus, iPhone 6, iPod Touch 5
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2014 27" Retina iMac i5, 2012 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air 2, iPad Mini 2, iPhone 6 Plus, iPhone 6, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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post #18 of 61

I wouldn't be surprised if Apple unveiled a larger iPhone, larger iPad and/or a phablet at WWDC next year.

 

Why at WWDC? Because new resolutions will require developers to make use of the auto-layout APIs if they don't already (and many don't).  So these devices will need to be announced in advance.

 

iOS 8 might also introduce split-screen multi-tasking, which will also require the use of auto-layout.

post #19 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post

It could work... they could break up updates to two times a year for both iPad and iPhone...

This is how I imagine it...

Spring 2014, we'll see the introduction of the iPad Pro (this may also happen at WWDC and Apple also debuts an iOS version of Xcode, capable of creating iOS apps only - not OS X applications.)

Fall 2014, iPad mini and Air updated, iPhone 6 debuts in two screen sizes. (iPhone 4s retired, iPhone 5c price drops.)

Spring 2015, iPad Pro updated, iPhone 5c updated to 6c and also comes in a second display size. (iPhone 5c price drops again or Apple retires it as well and begins a new pricing model.)

Somewhere in there, the iPod touch is also updated and it also gets a second model with larger display ~6" as an answer to the phablet market. The iPod brand is also used for new wearable products, iPod watch, iPod whatever, iPod etc... That extends the functionality of the iPod line into a new direction. (I'm guessing this is why we didn't see any iPod updates at all this year and why the iPod nano got a new form factor last year.)

Sometime in 2016, we'll see a new line of computers (a laptop and an AIO desktop) running iOS.

I disagree.

 

my guess is that only the 'c'  gets 'feature lifts' on the 'tock' cycle, whereas 's' (or plain) gets a performance lift (either new battery or new processor).   Reason:  Keeps the 1 year OS cycle intact.  Introducing new features requires a New OS... my guess is that at most, they want a point release update in the Spring.

 

so the 'tick' cycle (fall release)

- New 'High End' version (let's say 5"

- Old High end gets repackaged into the 'c' version... the innards get wrapped in plastic

- Old C version goes to the .99 subscriber cost pile.

 

the 'tock' cycle (spring release)

- .99 cent phone same old same old.

- the 'c' phone is updated with 1/2 of the features of the high end phone

  (take your pick:   A7M7 chip set + one of these: Camera, TouchID)   my guess... camera.)

- the high end phone gets a speed bump and/or battery bump.

post #20 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andysol View Post
 

She is saying they will do 2 different release dates- maybe spring and fall- not 2 phones at the same time.

 

 

Ah, ok, I see now.

 

I don't know if Apple is going to do that with their iPhone releases, but I do think that Apple should be releasing hot products in every single quarter, and not have a whole bunch of products all being released around the same time.

post #21 of 61

This is not Steve Jobs Apple.

If it was Steve Jobs Apple: iPhone is a software platform. A new iPhone is only released with a new OS.


Maybe Tim will play Samsung and release meaningless hardware upgrades a couple of times a year.

post #22 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post
 

I disagree.

 

my guess is that only the 'c'  gets 'feature lifts' on the 'tock' cycle, whereas 's' (or plain) gets a performance lift (either new battery or new processor).   Reason:  Keeps the 1 year OS cycle intact.  Introducing new features requires a New OS... my guess is that at most, they want a point release update in the Spring.

 

Yeah I agree, and nothing in my post says otherwise.

 

Fall of 2014 line up will be:

*iPhone 6 (4", A8)

*iPhone 6 (4.7", A8)

iPhone 5c (4", A6)  <--- No change here, maybe price lowered

*iPad mini (A8)

*iPad Air (A8)

iPad Pro (A7X)

 

Spring of 2015 line up will be:

iPhone 6 (4", A8)

iPhone 6 (4.7", A8)

*iPhone 6c (4", A7)  <--- Nothing new here; same internals as the "5s", but in colorful plastic

*iPhone 6c (4.7", A7)

iPad mini (A8)

iPad Air (A8)

*iPad Pro (A8X)

 

 

*New models

 

Updated to include iPad.


Edited by mjtomlin - 11/6/13 at 10:25am
Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
Reply
post #23 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post
 

 

Ah, ok, I see now.

 

I don't know if Apple is going to do that with their iPhone releases, but I do think that Apple should be releasing hot products in every single quarter, and not have a whole bunch of products all being released around the same time.

 

It seems that Apple likes to bring out the new stuff just when people are getting into the buying mood.

Hmmmmmm...
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Hmmmmmm...
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post #24 of 61
Same prediction that was made by "analysts" last year. Apple's updates aren't significant enough to warrant twice a year releases. They'd run their innovation pipeline dry within two years.
post #25 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by shompa View Post

This is not Steve Jobs Apple.


If it was Steve Jobs Apple: iPhone is a software platform. A new iPhone is only released with a new OS.


Maybe Tim will play Samsung and release meaningless hardware upgrades a couple of times a year.

You're not actually taking a Katy Huberty comment seriously are you?

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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post #26 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post
 

Every analyst's wet dream prediction. It comes up with such frequency its no wonder they believe themselves. I guess one day a 'services arm' of Apple may become an independent entity, but so far in it's history Apple has strived to offer integrated solutions where hardware is the revenue driver and software and services create the user experience and ecosystem for the hardware and user to operate within. Fantasize as they may - is there any evidence that this is about to change?

iTunes is a major service of Apple's. After years of, arguably, being a break-even "business", it is become an increasingly profitable revenue stream. Horace Dediu has a nice run-down on this over a series of articles. Here's his most recent-impressive revenue numbers: http://www.asymco.com/2013/08/05/itunes-update/

For your sake, I hope you're right.
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For your sake, I hope you're right.
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post #27 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

Here's what happens. When Apple releases a new flagship phone, people line up to buy it, and it takes a couple of months for production to catch up with demand. BUT, Apple has historically only offered one size flagship phone. As far as I'm concerned, it would have been better if Apple had released a larger screen model iPhone 6 months ago that was a larger version of the iPhone 5.

The would have created a lot of sales if they did.

So, fast forward to now.

Instead of making last year's flagship the cheaper model, they did a slight enhancement to the battery, stuck it in a colorful polycarb case and made that their second tier iPhone 5C as they came out out the updated iPhone 5 and called it the iPhone 5S.

I think it's a good strategy to make their second tier (eventually their entry level phone) out of a different and less expansive case. I think that's a wise move, but where Apple could have done better was to offer better colors.

But to flip flip every 6 or so months and announce a different sized model is what they SHOULD do and probably the only thing they CAN do due to availability of parts and even people to spit out two large demand products at the same time. Probably why Apple is shipping iPads and not the iPad mini 2's.

Either way, I'm looking forward to the next iPhone with a larger screen. I would like to see them add more RAM to the processor and spit them out with at least 2GB if not 4GB.

The A7 is super fast, so why do you need more RAM-more pixels on a larger Retina screen? Just because more is better? Why couldn't they achieve the same performance benchmarks an A8?

For your sake, I hope you're right.
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For your sake, I hope you're right.
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post #28 of 61

I dislike people referring to the 5C as "mid range". Outside the US, the pricing gets very silly very quickly. Here in the UK, a 5C costs significantly more than a 5S in the US does. Hell, an iPhone 4s costs more here than a 5C in the US.

 

That's the reason for the constant harping of the analysts about "mid range": outside the US, pricing is significantly inflated and if Apple were to price phones more competitively there are a lot of potential sales they could snatch away from Samsung.

post #29 of 61

She was right. They did that with iTunes Radio.

For your sake, I hope you're right.
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For your sake, I hope you're right.
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post #30 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by VL-Tone View Post
 

I wouldn't be surprised if Apple unveiled a larger iPhone, larger iPad and/or a phablet at WWDC next year.

 

Why at WWDC? Because new resolutions will require developers to make use of the auto-layout APIs if they don't already (and many don't).  So these devices will need to be announced in advance.

 

iOS 8 might also introduce split-screen multi-tasking, which will also require the use of auto-layout.

Great points.

For your sake, I hope you're right.
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For your sake, I hope you're right.
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post #31 of 61

What about the end of the article?

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Many believe that Apple is in the early stages of a strategy that would use Touch ID alongside iOS 7's Bluetooth-based iBeacons functionality to create a new mobile payment system. Such a system, if implemented, could be a significant revenue source for Apple thanks to the size of the iOS device installed base alone.
 

This seems like a more exciting prospect than anything else in this post. I'm imagining brick and mortar stores that have no need to carry inventory.

 

Suddenly you can fit a specialized store in any little hole in the wall. Folks can come in to touch and feel your product, use their phone to place an order, and then leave empty-handed knowing that their new widget is on its way to your home. No longer must you carry around bags and bags of stuff while shopping!

post #32 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick5 View Post

Really......it took a meeting with cook to figure that out? They don't have anything new, so what else can they do?

If by "they" you mean the analysts, of course they don't have anything new. Meeting with Tim Cook is big news, for them. It's not something that happens every day.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #33 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

"... Katy Huberty..."  

If it was Ming-Chi Kuo, the article would have been accompanied by a short bio and effusive praise for his predictions.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #34 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post
 

 

It seems that Apple likes to bring out the new stuff just when people are getting into the buying mood.

I agree that's the case with consumer (especially mobile) products. Institutional budgets tend not to revolve around the fall/holiday buying season.

 

More often, it seems, Apple is willing or forced to release desktops and notebooks away from the holiday schedule. They SHOULD release new Macs in the Spring and perhaps also the 6" iPhone and 12" iPad, as these may be more expensive (not holiday gifts) and may be more desirable to education and enterprise. Additionally, manufacturing capacity is strained around the consumer holiday buying season.

 

Also, Apple is at the mercy of Intel's roadmap for Mac silicon. (Constraints on their Mac hardware release schedules may be a reason why some predict that their supplier-client relationship with Intel will change in the near term.)

For your sake, I hope you're right.
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For your sake, I hope you're right.
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post #35 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post
 

 

Ah, ok, I see now.

 

I don't know if Apple is going to do that with their iPhone releases, but I do think that Apple should be releasing hot products in every single quarter, and not have a whole bunch of products all being released around the same time.

Agreed, especially when there are enough component overlaps (the phones) that the "supply constraints" bite into their availability, the peak demand phenomena: having that max capacity all the time when it's only needed once a year for maybe three months has got to be excessively costly….. even if only for the OEMs and assemblers it still jacks up the unit cost.

post #36 of 61

Like the idea.  Keep releasing the flagship phone and tablet during the holidays.  Then release the 'pro' version in late spring/early summer:

 

Sept - iPhone 6

Nov - iPad Air / iPad Mini

 

April - iPhone 6X (large screen)

May - iPadPro

Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
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Apple Purchases last 12 months - iPhone 5S (two), iPhone 6, iPhone 6+ (two), iPadAir, iPadAir2, iPadMini2, AppleTV (two), MacMini, Airport Extreme, iPod Classic.
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post #37 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carthusia View Post

The A7 is super fast, so why do you need more RAM-more pixels on a larger Retina screen? Just because more is better? Why couldn't they achieve the same performance benchmarks an A8?

More is better. Larger numbers are better. New is better. Higher version numbers are better. Faster is better.

28 years of Wintel PCs have conditioned me to think this way. Windows gets slower, PCs get faster. Windows hogs more memory, PCs get more memory. This is the way of things. Do not question it. /s

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #38 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Like the idea.  Keep releasing the flagship phone and tablet during the holidays.  Then release the 'pro' version in late spring/early summer:

Sept - iPhone 6
Nov - iPad Air / iPad Mini

April - iPhone 6X (large screen)
May - iPadPro

WWDC is in June. Why announce before the big conference? The keynote would be boring.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #39 of 61

Katy sees Tim in a cab and runs after it banging on the window.

 

Katy screaming: "Tim, will you be releasing 2 new iPhones next year?!"

 

Tim yelling at the cab driver: "I've told you twice, hit the peddle!"

 

Katy, still screaming: "You'll be releasing iPhones twice next year?!"

 

Tim, exasperated: "Go, man... GO!!"

 

Katy writes in notebook: "Tim said twice next year is a go."

Hmmmmmm...
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Hmmmmmm...
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post #40 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by virtua View Post

They haven't predicted the second coming of Steve, or maybe that's just been announced lol.

I've heard he's recently started replying to his email...
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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