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IDC retroactively discovers ten million tablets sold in the year ago quarter

post #1 of 55
Thread Starter 
More bad new for Apple's iPad "market share" numbers: IDC is now reporting that last year, there were ten million non-Apple tablets it failed to count in its original estimates, retroactively lowering Apple's share of what appears to be a really difficult market to tabulate.



In a move that sounds suspiciously similar to Strategy Analytics' invention of millions of non-iPad tablets, IDC has restated third quarter tablet shipment estimates for the year ago quarter.

The research firm not only "found" more than ten million units it could only attribute to "others," but also dramatically lowered its previously stated shipments for Samsung and Asus by more than a million devices in a single quarter.

Market share seems to have nothing to do with reality



The end result is that Apple, despite being the only tablet maker globally to ship double digit millions of devices each quarter, and by far the most profitable tablet maker in a sea of vendors, many of whom are actually losing money, is now portrayed as having had less of a "share" of the "market" than IDC previously reported.

IDC's "preliminary" shipment estimate numbers for Q3 2012 (below top) originally assigned Apple a 50.4 percent share of the market, but after the recount, the firm now says that iPads had just a 40.2 percent share of global sales last year, despite the runaway success of Apple's product that no other vendor has been able to successfully challenge.

Apple hasn't restated its sales figures or profits, so IDC's dramatically shifting "market share" numbers are based entirely on the firm's own estimates of everyone else, none of which regularly report actual sales numbers or even shipment estimates.

Apple's retroactive, overnight loss of ten percentage points of market share last year (as tabulated by IDC) appears to make the whole business of creating market share numbers for "tablet shipments" completely irrelevant to reality and wholly without any notion of accountability or legitimacy.

IDC before


IDC after


Samsung's secret implosion of tablet growth



Second place Samsung was originally reported by IDC to have sold 5.1 million tablets in Q3 2012, giving it an 18.4 percent share of estimated shipments (but not profits or even actual sales, and certainly not tablet usage, media sales, ecosystem support or third party developer attention).

That number also allowed IDC to report 325 percent year-over-year growth for Samsung last year. This year, Samsung's Q3 2013 tablets shipments were retroactively lowered to 4.3 million, causing its 18.4 percent share to drop to 12.4 percent.

Last year, IDC's Ryan Reith stated that Samsung "offers a wide range of tablet offerings across multiple screen sizes and colors, and that clearly resonated with more buyers this quarter. Its growth to 18.4% of worldwide market share during the quarter represents the first time a competitor has attained this level of share since the original launch of the iPad."

In light of IDC's new lower numbers however, that's no longer true. However, IDC's retroactive restating of numbers didn't also retract the favorable comments Reith, the program manager of the IDC's Mobile Device Trackers, had previously made about Samsung's tablet business.

Instead, Samsung's missing six percentage points of share from one year ago join the ten points taken from Apple, and both are applied to "other," retroactively ballooning the group of generic "white box" tablet makers from a 12.2 percent minor and shrinking segment of the market last year into a block that, according to the revised story, shipped more than one third of the market's units last year.IDC's shift in accounting turns its own market data on "other" White Box tablets upside down

IDC's shift in accounting turns its own market data on "other" White Box tablets upside down, meaning that contrary to what IDC reported last year, the "other" category was actually growing by nearly 3x rather than shrinking by 38 percent, and rather than being on par with Asus or Amazon by shipping around 3 million units, it was really nearly as large as Apple.

IDC's estimate for Samsung's Q3 2013 shipments is 9.7 million, which when contrasted to the new lower estimate from last year, turns in a spectacular growth of 123 percent. At the same time, the "rate of growth" IDC reports for Samsung is falling precipitously.

IDC made no mention of Samsung's collapsing growth rate compared to the previous year, despite the fact that both numbers were inflated by IDC's shifting figures. Instead, it just appears that Samsung's market share is growing dramatically, because its being compared to deflated new lower numbers in the past.

And now, a warning



In IDC's latest report, Tom Mainelli, the firm's Research Director of Tablets noted that "white box tablet shipments continue to constitute a fairly large percentage of the Android devices shipped into the market," more than one third, according to IDC's numbers.

However, Mainelli added, "these low cost Android-based products make tablets available to a wider market of consumers, which is good. However, many use cheap parts and non Google-approved versions of Android that can result in an unsatisfactory customer experience, limited usage, and very little engagement with the ecosystem.

"Android's growth in tablets has been stunning to watch, but shipments alone won't guarantee long-term success. For that you need a sustainable hardware business model, a healthy ecosystem for developers, and happy end users."
post #2 of 55
Pretty easy to see that Apple coasting with iOS. Zero innovation in the past 3 years.

You can't even change the number of icons!
post #3 of 55
Where are they? Sitting in the bottom of a desk drawer? Or perhaps in a warehouse somewhere?

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #4 of 55
Originally Posted by jobsonmyface
[post]

 

Please. Mods. Come on. Ban this… thing. Not even a person.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #5 of 55
Originally Posted by jobsonmyface
[post]

Please. Mods. Come on. Ban this… thing. Not even a person.



Indeed, it's probably one of the millions of Samsung's paid bloggers.
post #6 of 55
If you never reported on IDC or SA, ever again, for eternity... would any of us notice or care? [crickets]
post #7 of 55
Ha, so not only did "other" get bigger but Samsung got smaller. Why do people still report this stuff as if it's even close to being accurate? I'm so sick of the stupid horse race, the stupid zero sum game the media plays. 1rolleyes.gif
post #8 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Please. Mods. Come on. Ban this… thing. Not even a person.
Agreed. That one adds nothing to the conversation - neither humor nor information.

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We've always been at war with Eastasia...

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post #9 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jobsonmyface View Post

Pretty easy to see that Apple coasting with iOS. Zero innovation in the past 3 years.

You can't even change the number of icons!

That's right, Apple is DOOMED!!! Now where do I sign up for a cut of Samsung's marketing budget?
post #10 of 55
Didn't Gartner and IDC used to report healthy PC sales before they fell off the cliff?

Derps
post #11 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jobsonmyface View Post

Pretty easy to see that Apple coasting with iOS. Zero innovation in the past 3 years.

You can't even change the number of icons!

Troll alert!
post #12 of 55
What a fuster cluck.

Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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post #13 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jobsonmyface View Post

Pretty easy to see that Apple coasting with iOS. Zero innovation in the past 3 years.

You can't even change the number of icons!

 

Rule #1 for trolling is to try to make some fucking sense, as I'm clueless as to what "change the # of icons" even means. 

 

Oh, and for those asking why spammers and trolls do not get banned, its clear that the mods don't give a shit. Even if they spent 5 min every few days skimming a couple threads it would be clear who needs to be banned, the same handful of blatant trolls have managed to rack up a decent post count posting absolutely nothing but spam like this. Not to mention that this particular poster has a username that is so despicably, disrespectful of the dead. Yeah, no doubt he has something meaningful to contribute.  

post #14 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jobsonmyface View Post

Pretty easy to see that Apple coasting with iOS. Zero innovation in the past 3 years.

You can't even change the number of icons!

You could change the number of icons since 2008.
post #15 of 55

Where exactly are all these tablets? I'm always on the lookout for which tablets people are using in the subway and coffee shops in NYC and iPads are at least 9 out of 10, maybe higher. 

post #16 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jobsonmyface View Post

Pretty easy to see that Apple coasting with iOS. Zero innovation in the past 3 years.

You can't even change the number of icons!

Here's an idea. **** off and go hang out in an Android forum. Everyone here is sick of your stupid drivel. Grow up dude.
post #17 of 55
And Amazon went from 9% in 3Q2012 as reported earlier, to now less than 0.9% for 3Q2012 (i.e., they show up as Other, now)?

That's a 10-fold drop.
post #18 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jakeb View Post
 

Where exactly are all these tablets? I'm always on the lookout for which tablets people are using in the subway and coffee shops in NYC and iPads are at least 9 out of 10, maybe higher. 

These are all of the no name $30 to $80 dollar tablets that don't connect to google play or any ecosystem on the planet.  There a conglomeration of cheap landfill junk that any respectable survey firm would completely ignore.  3 months to 6 months after purchase because of the use of the cheapest parts they can find to construct them, 90% of them die and are thrown away.  If it was not so sad that IDC and Stratgey Analytics had to quote these numbers, of tablets (no name white box tablets) that can barely display a web page, and are so low powered as to be laughable for any use other than being a paper weight, there whole surveys would be the laughing stock and should be the laughing stock of the survey world.

These tablets are not even in the same galaxy when compared to the iPad.  

 

I agree with the sentiment above that we should just disregard any article that starts with IDC Says, Or A Strategy Analytics survey says and file it in the garbage where it belongs.

post #19 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jakeb View Post

Where exactly are all these tablets? I'm always on the lookout for which tablets people are using in the subway and coffee shops in NYC and iPads are at least 9 out of 10, maybe higher. 

In China and the rest of the developing world, the Android open source project is used for anything with a display. It's a free modern OS, so it sees a lot of applications. I think IDC is counting all these devices as tablets. The way they're shuffling numbers around makes it look like they have some sort of proxy for estimating the total number of Android devices sold, then they divide those up into smartphones and tablets, and then divide those up into different brands. So the realised they'd overestimated Samsung's slice of the pie and simply gave those sales to "other". Meanwhile, poor Apple only gets its official sales counted.
post #20 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jobsonmyface View Post

blah, blah, blah

 

How come my Galaxy S4 still has a yellow daisy as the icon for it's image gallery?

 

So 2007, so boring, such a lack of innovation since it was copied from Apple in 2010, predictable and bland.

 

Samsung sucks.

Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
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Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
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post #21 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jobsonmyface View Post

Pretty easy to see that Apple coasting with iOS. Zero innovation in the past 3 years.

You can't even change the number of icons!

Samsung Trollbot

Help! I'm trapped in a white dungeon of amazing precision and impeccable tolerances!

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Help! I'm trapped in a white dungeon of amazing precision and impeccable tolerances!

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post #22 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mechanic View Post
 

These are all of the no name $30 to $80 dollar tablets that don't connect to google play or any ecosystem on the planet.

These are the feature phones of the tablet market.  They replace things like cheap portable DVD players.  And just as feature phones were taken over by Android, so have these been.  But the real competition comes as devices get smarter.  Eventually all cell phones and all tablets become app platforms.  Apple will continue to dominate the ones that aren't junk.

post #23 of 55

IDC? Pah, in one ear out the other.

post #24 of 55

Maybe IDC added up the figures on a Surface, using Excel.

 

That could explain it.

Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
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Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
Reply
post #25 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

Rule #1 for trolling is to try to make some fucking sense, as I'm clueless as to what "change the # of icons" even means. 

Oh, and for those asking why spammers and trolls do not get banned, its clear that the mods don't give a shit. Even if they spent 5 min every few days skimming a couple threads it would be clear who needs to be banned, the same handful of blatant trolls have managed to rack up a decent post count posting absolutely nothing but spam like this. Not to mention that this particular poster has a username that is so despicably, disrespectful of the dead. Yeah, no doubt he has something meaningful to contribute.  

There are three kinds of "trolls" infesting this site:

1. Contrarians - those who just want to be different because believing that makes them feel superior to others. Contrarians will frequent the forums and attempt a discussion, even if they aren't open-minded. Their motive for being here goes far deeper than simpy being a fan of Android or Windows; it is tied to unresolved self esteem issues.

2. Provocateurs - your (classic) internet trolls. They post just to piss people off. The post usually doesn't contain a thoughtful or even on-topic argument. Sometimes they post once and leave. They don't engage in conversation, but if they do, it's less a conversation than repeating the same thing. You wouldn't want to know them IRL either, probably. They are sociopaths in training.

3. False flags - aka concern trolls. These typically appear on threads where the article or forum users are critical of Apple's competitors. Concern trolls aim to sway opinions, albeit clumsily, once you learn to spot them (posts telling "us Apple fans" how to think or "but let's be honest here"). Not every post like that is always a false flag, but posts from inactive or newly created accounts are more likely to be false flags than posts from regular contributors. Context matters in identifying concern trolls.

I'd like to see more action from mods on routing out the second type of troll, because it's usually obvious, and it exists to annoy, rather than add to any discussion. But I have to agree with you that the mods are absent, permissive, or asleep at the wheel. As it were, the forums are for all intents and purposes unmoderated.
Edited by Suddenly Newton - 11/10/13 at 12:34pm

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #26 of 55
I see, they just "missed" 10 million units. And, since they are so precisely accurate as to have "missed" 10 million units, then for sure they would know exactly who sold the previously "missing" tablet sales, right? LOL
post #27 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jobsonmyface View Post

Pretty easy to see that Apple coasting with iOS. Zero innovation in the past 3 years.

Easy to see Samsung has been riding Apple's coat tails all along, with zero home-grown innovation that matters.

 

You can't even change the number of icons!

Speak for yourself.

post #28 of 55

They either screwed up before or somebody paid them to change the numbers.

 

So now we should care until next year when they will announce that they were off by 100 million for a bigger pay-off.

 

All I can say is that I have used the iPad Air and it is an awesome device.

post #29 of 55
Considering I've only seen perhaps 3 android devices in the wild, I find all of those numbers to be suspicious. Kindle notwithstanding.
post #30 of 55
No! The sillybollocks troll does have a point - Apple do need to innovate soon. How else will Samsung come up with any ideas?

/s

Mind not for rent, to any god or government.

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Mind not for rent, to any god or government.

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post #31 of 55

Amazing how this cheap shit affecting Apple's "marketshare" is actually seen as relevant by analysts/media/investors. I mean.. really? It's just noise. Noone benefits from these tablets, not the OEM that makes them (no margins), not Google (an barely run anything, let alone access the play store and Google services), and not consumers (who barely use them, looking at the usage stats). These tablets are just "there"- they don't change any of the fundamental dynamics, and they certainly don't "compete" with iPads. 

 

I travel alot, and whenever I see a non-iPad, it makes my head turn. That's how uncommon they are in actual usage. Whether outside, in a cafe, bus, train, airport, train, university, park benches, etc- 95% of what I see are iPads. I'll trust that anecdotal evidence more than these specious "marketshare" figures that count I don't know what. 


Edited by Slurpy - 11/10/13 at 2:19pm
post #32 of 55

Android tablet market will crash starting with Black Friday deals of $50 white box tablets.  Why pay $300 for a Android tablet when you can get one for $50?

post #33 of 55

IDC is about as useless as the copycats.  And the fools who think counting the number of icons is more critical than, say, the potential of the A7 cpu.

post #34 of 55

Seems that IDC is establishing in the tablet market what cosmologists refer to as "dark matter". That is, something of which there is no physical evidence, but which needs to exist for the mathematical models they use to make sense and not be... er... embarrassingly inaccurate.

post #35 of 55
Making lemonade from the latest IDC projections...

Since, according to IDC, Apple only had 40+% worldwide tablet market share instead of 50+% in 2012 that means Apple held a higher percentage of worldwide tablet earnings and profits!!!

Will Wall Street and the blogosphere write about this financial gain or focus on the supposed lost of market share? :-)))
post #36 of 55
Wait, isn't this good news for Apple? If their "market share" wasn't as good last year, then this year won't be as big if a drop off.
post #37 of 55

Perhaps these previously invisible tablets were never sold after all... They may have been dumped, only to be recovered and activated by scavengers.

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post #38 of 55
Apple can't possibly gain tablet market share, so it really doesn't matter how many more Android tablets are added into the mix. All that matters is that Apple's tablet business remains profitable. Apple's loss of smartphone and tablet market share will ruin Apple shareholders and keep investors away, but Apple's business will definitely remain healthy as long as consumers with money continue to buy Apple products. I just wish Apple would expand its business beyond mobile hardware. Android will continue to remain a thorn in Apple's side for years and there's no way to get around it as long as Google supports the platform and gives Android OS away for free.
post #39 of 55
Originally Posted by Jack Baker View Post
I see, they just "missed" 10 million units.

 

Well, you know, those warehouses… hard to keep track of.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #40 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Apple can't possibly gain tablet market share, so it really doesn't matter how many more Android tablets are added into the mix. All that matters is that Apple's tablet business remains profitable. Apple's loss of smartphone and tablet market share will ruin Apple shareholders and keep investors away, but Apple's business will definitely remain healthy as long as consumers with money continue to buy Apple products. I just wish Apple would expand its business beyond mobile hardware. Android will continue to remain a thorn in Apple's side for years and there's no way to get around it as long as Google supports the platform and gives Android OS away for free.

 

"Ninety percent of everything is crap." —Theodore Sturgeon"Sturgeon's Law"

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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