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IDC data shows 66% of Android's 81% smartphone share are junk phones selling for $215 - Page 3

post #81 of 112
If this article were Jeopardy, then the answer, or actually the question would be, "when is winning more like losing?"
post #82 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Corrections View Post
 

 

Your list of phones well illustrates the delusion of many Android fans who think the higher end models of HTC, Motorola and LG are representative of the "81% marketshare." If that were the case, Apple’s App Store wouldn’t be dominate, and Google Play wouldn’t be a rummage sale of a bunch of adware. 

 

That’s also the point of the article: the higher end (for Android, anyway) is only 20% of these numbers. And the phones you seem to think are selling in quantity (because none of those companies would dare to say how many they are actually selling!) are actually selling in such low quantities that they hardly even shift the ASP of the Android market. 

 

Where did I say that those phones made up the 81%?  What I said was that those phones are being sold in addition to the phablets, which alone are outselling the iPhone.

post #83 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood View Post
 

. . . Where's the problem?  If anything I'd accuse the author of rehashing and restating the obvious.  I would bet that neither of those statistics really surprise anyone, including the people that wrote articles about market share in the first place.

 

 

The author's point is not obvious to the tech bloggers who obsess about market share and nothing else.  See here and here for examples.  "Android" is portrayed as an all-consuming, undifferentiated mass, glossing over the significant differences between "Android phones."  The argument of these tech bloggers is that Android's alleged "network effect" will inevitably swamp iOS.  But if 2/3 of the phones aren't part of that "network," because they are not used as smart phones, this argument is really a lot of bunk. 

post #84 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Corrections View Post
 

 

Careful with statistics. IDC says its phablet estimates went from 3% to 21% yoy. That’s 5.6m to 54.8m! Sounds great, but that’s largely due to Samsung taking its Galaxy S3 from 4.7" to 5" with the Galaxy S4. See how one can create phenomenal "growth figures" simply by shifting an arbitrary boundary definition? 

 

That’s also what’s happening when IDC compares iPhones against 172 million cheap phone shipments. What’s next: do we start counting TV shipments in with tablets so the iPad’s share "goes down" even faster in the "screen market?"

 

IDC already includes lots of "toys" (the analyst’s word) in its tablet figures. Don’t willingly be fooled just because you like the sound of Apple losing. It doesn’t make it so.

 

I agree that the way way IDC is counting this is leading to much of this growth, however this still doesn't take away from the fact that large screen phones (>= 5") are seeing significant growth.  No one is forcing a Galaxy SIII user to upgrade to a S4 if they don't like the screen size.    You seem to know Asia and if you've spent time in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan you will have seen the large number of Samsung Note devices in use, and despite what I read routinely, it's nearly always the wealthy who use them.   If wealthy Asians aren't in Apple's strike zone, I don't know who is.

 

I believe Apple is passing up an opportunity by not competing in the large screen smartphone space. Feel free to disagree, but next year, I suspect Apple is going to do very well if they release one or more large phones.  I blame Tim Cook for not getting this done sooner.

post #85 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post

I agree that the way way IDC is counting this is leading to much of this growth, however this still doesn't take away from the fact that large screen phones (>= 5") are seeing significant growth.  No one is forcing a Galaxy SIII user to upgrade to a S4 if they don't like the screen size.    You seem to know Asia and if you've spent time in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan you will have seen the large number of Samsung Note devices in use, and despite what I read routinely, it's nearly always the wealthy who use them.   If wealthy Asians aren't in Apple's strike zone, I don't know who is.

I believe Apple is passing up an opportunity by not competing in the large screen smartphone space. Feel free to disagree, but next year, I suspect Apple is going to do very well if they release one or more large phones.  I blame Tim Cook for not getting this done sooner.

Here's the thing, if you want a flagship Sammy, you have to get a 5" one and not because you want it for the size.

Blaming Cook is pointless. Apple releases devices on its schedule and when the products are ready.
post #86 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Here's the thing, if you want a flagship Sammy, you have to get a 5" one and not because you want it for the size.

Blaming Cook is pointless. Apple releases devices on its schedule and when the products are ready.

 

That really goes both ways.  If you want a flagship iOS phone (not that there's any other type...) you have to get a 4" screen.  I fully expect the larger iPhone models to outsell the 4" models when they go on sale.

post #87 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post

That really goes both ways.  If you want a flagship iOS phone (not that there's any other type...) you have to get a 4" screen.  I fully expect the larger iPhone models to outsell the 4" models when they go on sale.

As long as they release a 5" as a complement to the 4", I'll be fine. Also note the Note didn't outsell the GS3 so I don't think a larger iPhone will outsell the 4" iPhone, all things being equal.
post #88 of 112

Doing some quick math, that means high end Androids make up 34% of their 81% market share, or 27.5% of the overall market...  Still higher than iOS.

post #89 of 112
do i smell jealousy?

post #90 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

Doing some quick math, that means high end Androids make up 34% of their 81% market share, or 27.5% of the overall market...  Still higher than iOS.

So any Android selling > $215 is high-end now?
post #91 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


So any Android selling > $215 is high-end now?

 

Does the article say that's the cut off point for low to high end?  Furthermore, the ASPs in the article are the prices the manufacturer receives, not the retail prices.  

 

Android manufacturers take less profit than Apple as well (due to more competition in the space), so that drives ASPs down.  A high-end Android phone can have an ASP of $350-500 (Nexus 5 has high end specs but Google sells for only $350), whereas low-end Android phones drive the average down due to their sub-$200 cost...  

 

Maybe take a statistics or math course, and then you'll be able to deduce that the $215 spoken of isn't the price where low end becomes high end, but rather the average when you factor in the 66% of phones which cost around $100-$150....

post #92 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

Does the article say that's the cut off point for low to high end?  Furthermore, the ASPs in the article are the prices the manufacturer receives, not the retail prices.  

Android manufacturers take less profit than Apple as well (due to more competition in the space), so that drives ASPs down.  A high-end Android phone can have an ASP of $350-500 (Nexus 5 has high end specs but Google sells for only $350), whereas low-end Android phones drive the average down due to their sub-$200 cost...  

Maybe take a statistics or math course, and then you'll be able to deduce that the $215 spoken of isn't the price where low end becomes high end, but rather the average when you factor in the 66% of phones which cost around $100-$150....

So basically you're saying there is no mid range and only high/low end. Interesting deduction there.
post #93 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


So basically you're saying there is no mid range and only high/low end. Interesting deduction there.

 

I don't know the last time you went shopping, but the mid-range is rather small, at least in the West.  High end phones are so subsidized that mid-range phones hardly make sense, and their presence in the market is minimal.  Non-subsidized 'high-end' Android phones can be had for $350 (Nexus 5) to $500 (multiple Chinese phones).  

post #94 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

I don't know the last time you went shopping, but the mid-range is rather small, at least in the West.  High end phones are so subsidized that mid-range phones hardly make sense, and their presence in the market is minimal.  Non-subsidized 'high-end' Android phones can be had for $350 (Nexus 5) to $500 (multiple Chinese phones).  

So what defines these market segments? Price? Spec list?
post #95 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

So what defines these market segments? Price? Spec list?

DED 1wink.gif
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post #96 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


So what defines these market segments? Price? Spec list?

 

Spec list is likely the closest we can come, since some manufacturers sell at a loss (Google Nexus on the Play Store), and some sell at a huge margin (Apple).  I'd prefer to define it as the component cost, but those numbers aren't always available, and you can approximate it by comparing spec sheets. 

post #97 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

Spec list is likely the closest we can come, since some manufacturers sell at a loss (Google Nexus on the Play Store), and some sell at a huge margin (Apple).  I'd prefer to define it as the component cost, but those numbers aren't always available, and you can approximate it by comparing spec sheets. 

I doubt analysts use spec lists to define a smartphone let alone high-end vs low- end.
post #98 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post
 

 

Spec list is likely the closest we can come, since some manufacturers sell at a loss (Google Nexus on the Play Store), and some sell at a huge margin (Apple).  I'd prefer to define it as the component cost, but those numbers aren't always available, and you can approximate it by comparing spec sheets. 

 

Google isn't the major player, Samsung is, the Nexus is a poor representation, Galaxy S4's and Note 3's sell for the same price as iPhones, apart from discounts as the S4 approaches end of life.

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post #99 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by KristianT View Post

do i smell jealousy?

I can't help but note

1->The android thing looks like a garbage can

2->The apple sign is inverted...like a mirror image....guess who mirrors apple move for move(hint:It's samsung)

post #100 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by bananaman View Post

I can't help but note
The android thing looks like a garbage can

Wow. . . you're right. I'm surprised no one else noticed /s.

Not sure it's an observation I'd trumpet. What's being put in the "garbage can"? Probably better to ignore obvious click-bait rather than point it out.
Edited by Gatorguy - 11/15/13 at 5:21am
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post #101 of 112
Heres' a link to a pretty interesting article I just finished perusing (kudos to 9to5). For those that don't venture beyond Apple-friendly sites you might have missed the news of a new Moto smartphone, the MotoG, at a shocking price... $179 off-contract! You could buy three of those for the price of one 5S.

Before you think the management at Motorola has gone completely nuts have a read for yourself.
http://www.mobileindustryreview.com/2013/11/moto-g-google-executing-nokias-strategy-better-even-nokia.html
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post #102 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

[bland product placement] the MotoG, at a shocking price... $179 off-contract! You could buy three of those for the price of one 5S.

 

...or four of them for one Note 3.

 

Too bad Motorola are so bad with their hardware they are almost dead, reminds me of last ditch dumping of Blackberry PlayBooks and HP Touchpads.

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post #103 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

...or four of them for one Note 3.

Too bad Motorola are so bad with their hardware they are almost dead, reminds me of last ditch dumping of Blackberry PlayBooks and HP Touchpads.

The hardware is decent just look at the reviews for the Moto X and better than Samsung's they just are being out marketed by them.
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post #104 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

The hardware is decent just look at the reviews for the Moto X and better than Samsung's they just are being out marketed by them.

Wait until real life usage reveals them for the pieces of junk they are.

You can't price them that low without cutting corners somewhere.

So is Motorola a charity or a product dumper?
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post #105 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Wait until real life usage reveals them for the pieces of junk they are.

You can't price them that low without cutting corners somewhere.

So is Motorola a charity or a product dumper?

Actually the positive reviews didn't start pouring in until after real life usage. The initial reviews were ho-hum.
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post #106 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Wait until real life usage reveals them for the pieces of junk they are.

You can't price them that low without cutting corners somewhere.

So is Motorola a charity or a product dumper?

A top of the line iPhone 64GB iPhone 5s is estimated at just $218 to build and that includes the manufacturing costs. The Moto G is probably more comparable to a two-year old 4s with a few of the more recent 5 components. With 16GB base memory, no expensive fingerprint reader, a less expensive display, less expensive processor and no LTE it's not hard to fathom a Moto G build cost in the $120 range or so IMO. Maybe even less. A classic case of making it up in volume?
Edited by Gatorguy - 11/15/13 at 6:51pm
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post #107 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Actually the positive reviews didn't start pouring in until after real life usage. The initial reviews were ho-hum.

For the money the HW is excellent. In many, many ways it's not on par with Apple's offerings but they aren't designed to compete directly with them. The quality is good enough that the main difference is the lack of profit they others get, which is unfortunate since it gives a poor idea of value.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

A top of the line iPhone 64GB iPhone 5s is estimated at just $218 to build and that includes the manufacturing costs. The Moto G is probably more comparable to a two-year old 4s with a few of the more recent 5 components. With 16GB base memory, no expensive fingerprint reader, a less expensive display, less expensive processor and no LTE it's not hard to fathom a Moto G build cost in the $120 range or so IMO. Maybe even less. A classic case of making it up in volume?

I really wish people didn't use those estimates. Have they ever included tye long term investments for getting mass market Retina IPS displays, Touch ID, or Apple's own chip design talent and IP?
post #108 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by akqies View Post


I really wish people didn't use those estimates. Have they ever included tye long term investments for getting mass market Retina IPS displays, Touch ID, or Apple's own chip design talent and IP?

Those things aren't specific to the iPhone are they? Wouldn't they figure into the broad category of R&D to be deducted from gross profits? Dunno.
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post #109 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

A top of the line iPhone 64GB iPhone 5s is estimated at just $218 to build and that includes the manufacturing costs

I'll give you $300, enough to cover your costs with a small profit.

When can I expect delivery?
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post #110 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

I'll give you $300, enough to cover your costs with a small profit.

When can I expect delivery?

Hon Hai might be really happy to if Apple let 'em. $300 could be a lot more than Apple is buying them for.
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post #111 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Those things aren't specific to the iPhone are they? Wouldn't they figure into the broad category of R&D to be deducted from gross profits? Dunno.

In 2010 Retina was only on the iPhone 4 after a couple years of rumors about Apple investing in display vendors. That same year was the first year of an Apple A-chip years after buying PA Semi. This year the iPhone 5S is the only device with Touch ID.

Eventually this trickles down to other devices and the per unit cost for that initial investment approaches zero but that's what a good investment does. This is what Apple excels at and a big reason for their ability to produce higher quality items at a lower cost than comparable products while still making a healthy profit.
post #112 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Those things aren't specific to the iPhone are they? Wouldn't they figure into the broad category of R&D to be deducted from gross profits? Dunno.

It's like saying drugs cost < $1 to make, why are they so expensive? Testing, development, etc. who wants to pay $30 MM for the first pill.
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