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Retina iPad mini shipments to grow 102% next quarter as iPad 2 reaches end of life

post #1 of 19
Thread Starter 
A market forecast from KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple will see a marked increase in shipments for the just-released iPad mini with Retina display over the coming months at the expense of iPad Air marketshare, while the iPad 2 may be discontinued in the first quarter of 2014

Retina iPad mini


Apple's newly redesigned iPad Air and "higher-than-expected" iPad mini sales will drive overall iPad shipments to 23.1 million units for the fourth quarter of 2013, Kuo said in a research note obtained by AppleInsider.

Apple will see a 102 percent quarter-over-quarter boost in iPad with Retina display shipments in the first quarter of 2014, bringing the total up to 4.5 million units. This is based on low supplies of the tablet at launch and seasonal demand.

While the analyst is upping sequential growth estimates for overall iPad shipments to 64 percent quarter-over-quarter to accommodate seasonality, specifically for holiday shoppers, he sees that number slipping 42 percent at the start of 2014. According to Kuo, shipments will dip to 13.3 million units due to seasonality and slower sales of the iPad Air.

Shipments of the larger iPad will fall from 10.5 million units in quarter four to 6 million units next quarter, down 43 percent. Accounting for the change is cannibalization from the Retina iPad mini and what Kuo calls "structural challenges" to the tablet sector.

"We think current tablet products can, generally, sufficiently meet entertainment needs. As they are very cheap already, lowering prices won't effectively stimulate demand," Kuo writes. "Only new applications, which will bring about new growth momentum, will be able to solve the structural problems the sector faces."

iPad Forecast


As for the non-Retina iPad mini and iPad 2, Kuo forecasts the tablets to ship 8.5 million and 1.7 million units in the December quarter, respectively. As with the iPad Air, sequential shipment growth will fall a respective 72 percent and 82 percent to a respective 2.4 million units and 0.3 million units.

Finally, given the iPad 2's price and positioning in Apple's lineup, Kuo believes the tablet may reach end of life in the first quarter of next year.
post #2 of 19
This guy is on crack if he thinks Apple is going to sell 13 million units in calendar Q1 2014. Apple did 19 million the same quarter last year. It would be a 30% decline year over year

(Yes, I already know last year Q1 included the China rollout and this year it was moved up to this quarter)
Edited by Red Oak - 11/12/13 at 5:26pm

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post #3 of 19

I'd say the iPad 2 reached "end of life" the moment Tim announced the price in October. Why would you pay 399 when you can have a Retina Mini for the same price, or a brand new state of the art Air for a hundred more? Weird move keeping the thing around.

post #4 of 19

He has Q1 confused with Q2

post #5 of 19
Also, he's projecting 0% year over year unit growth for this calendar Q4. Apple also sold 23 million last holiday quarter

"Structural problems the sector faces". As if Apple is just one of many competing in the vast sea of tablets

Let's come back his numbers after the results are reported

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post #6 of 19
Something isn't quite right about the iPad. 3 years, coming on 4 years later, and it's still the 3rd device between a PC and a smartphone. Apple's lack of vision for this product is a little disconcerting. I love mine, but Apple needs to figure out both how to market it and define exactly what the next step is for it. iPad definitely has not grown the way many have expected over the last year.
post #7 of 19

Those numbers are simply horrible.  Absolutely no growth and even a major decline.  Talk about a "Christmas's of the iPad"...

If the only amount of iPad mini w retina Apple can produce is 2 millions then its one hell of a major fail. That would be much worst than last year iMac fiasco since iPads impact the earnings a lot more.

 

It should be a rule at Apple to introduce any new refresh before september 1st so they have enough supply for the holidays.  I just can't believe how much they fail on execution since SF is gone.


Edited by herbapou - 11/12/13 at 5:50pm
post #8 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew Fields View Post

Something isn't quite right about the iPad. 3 years, coming on 4 years later, and it's still the 3rd device between a PC and a smartphone. Apple's lack of vision for this product is a little disconcerting. I love mine, but Apple needs to figure out both how to market it and define exactly what the next step is for it. iPad definitely has not grown the way many have expected over the last year.

 

In Apple vision tablets are design to be better a some tasks than a PC or a phone but are not design to replace those devises. 

Microsoft is trying to make tablet/PC hybrids, you may go look there.

You also have Samsung trying to make phone/tablet hybrids.

post #9 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

In Apple vision tablets are design to be better a some tasks than a PC or a phone but are not design to replace those devises. 
Microsoft is trying to make tablet/PC hybrids, you may go look there.
You also have Samsung trying to make phone/tablet hybrids.

I think that was Apple's vision for iPad 1, but Steve Jobs altered that quite a bit at the introduction of iPad 2. iPad's position in the computing market should have evolved with this new generation of iPad, but it hasn't. Apple spoke only about desktop speeds and feeds, 64 bit, twice as fast, etc. I agree with this analyst, the issue with the tablet is with new kinds of productivity and creativity software, not with hybrid gimmicks. If the iPad has desktop class hardware, then iit should have desktop class pro software to go with it -- software that's simpler and more powerful than its desktop brethren. There ought to be a more powerful and seamless relationship between these apps and the cloud. iPads are competing with televisions as much as they are with PC's as well, and the new MFI controllers couldn't arrive any sooner.
post #10 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post
 

Those numbers are simply horrible.  Absolutely no growth and even a major decline.  Talk about a "Christmas's of the iPad"...

If the only amount of iPad mini w retina Apple can produce is 2 millions then its one hell of a major fail. That would be much worst than last year iMac fiasco since iPads impact the earnings a lot more.

 

It should be a rule at Apple to introduce any new refresh before september 1st so they have enough supply for the holidays.  I just can't believe how much they fail on execution since SF is gone.

 

The iPad has achieved 25% of the PC market unit volume in the three years its been on the market.  I'd say it off to a very good start  

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post #11 of 19
Within another year Apple will have about 15% of the tablet market and Android will again have about 80%. Apple is fighting a losing battle to Android because everyone wants to buy tablets for under $300. Cheap products are the only things that matter to most consumers. It appears they don't want to pay a premium price for anything. Apple's revenue stream has been severely capped due to Android. Nothing is going to change in Apple's favor unless everyone suddenly becomes rich overnight. Tim Cook's dream of an iPad Christmas is rather unbelievable. Every quarter, Apple's revenue stream craps out because of some low product sales. Without even a possible boost from China Mobile, why should this quarter be any different. Apple was able to take market share from Windows PCs with the iPad and just as quickly Android tablets are able to take tablet market share from the iPad.
post #12 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Within another year Apple will have about 15% of the tablet market and Android will again have about 80%. Apple is fighting a losing battle to Android because everyone wants to buy tablets for under $300. Cheap products are the only things that matter to most consumers. It appears they don't want to pay a premium price for anything. Apple's revenue stream has been severely capped due to Android. Nothing is going to change in Apple's favor unless everyone suddenly becomes rich overnight. Tim Cook's dream of an iPad Christmas is rather unbelievable. Every quarter, Apple's revenue stream craps out because of some low product sales. Without even a possible boost from China Mobile, why should this quarter be any different. Apple was able to take market share from Windows PCs with the iPad and just as quickly Android tablets are able to take tablet market share from the iPad.

GTFO you Wall Street troll. Does BMW care that Kia is selling a ton of cars? He'll no. Cook has made it clear that he will not sell junk. Fact is Apple owns 60% of mobile profits. They own 60% market share for $500+ phones and 75% of $400+ tablets.

Seems like you are obsessed with market share. Do Ferrari owners fret that Toyota sells more cars. Neither should you. Sell your stock and buy Google shares.
post #13 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

Those numbers are simply horrible.  Absolutely no growth and even a major decline.  Talk about a "Christmas's of the iPad"...
If the only amount of iPad mini w retina Apple can produce is 2 millions then its one hell of a major fail. That would be much worst than last year 
iMac fiasco since iPads impact the earnings a lot more.

It should be a rule at Apple to introduce any new refresh before september 1st so they have enough supply for the holidays.  I just can't believe how much they fail on execution since SF is gone.

You, of all people, talking like this. For shame. The first rule of the IGZO Brotherhood is to maintain stoic discipline in the face of the technical difficulties of pushing out a new transistor substrate and making it into a working display backplane.

What do want Apple to do to advance their all-important holiday schedule? Do you want them to send an occupying army to Japan and take over the Sharp factories and force them to increase their yields?

And what does SF have to do with hardware, especially displays?
post #14 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907 View Post

I'd say the iPad 2 reached "end of life" the moment Tim announced the price in October. Why would you pay 399 when you can have a Retina Mini for the same price, or a brand new state of the art Air for a hundred more? Weird move keeping the thing around.

The iPad 2 is being used by many companies as a promotional product given to high-performing employees, or used by sales organizations to promote a customer to buy a more expensive option.
post #15 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

GTFO you Wall Street troll. Does BMW care that Kia is selling a ton of cars? He'll no. Cook has made it clear that he will not sell junk. Fact is Apple owns 60% of mobile profits. They own 60% market share for $500+ phones and 75% of $400+ tablets.

Seems like you are obsessed with market share. Do Ferrari owners fret that Toyota sells more cars. Neither should you. Sell your stock and buy Google shares.

A car is not a platform. If Apple drops to < 10% of the market developers leave etc.
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post #16 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

GTFO you Wall Street troll. Does BMW care that Kia is selling a ton of cars? He'll no. Cook has made it clear that he will not sell junk. Fact is Apple owns 60% of mobile profits. They own 60% market share for $500+ phones and 75% of $400+ tablets.

Seems like you are obsessed with market share. Do Ferrari owners fret that Toyota sells more cars. Neither should you. Sell your stock and buy Google shares.

We need to have an automatic perma ban on new posters < 1 year who call posters with considerably more history "trolls"
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post #17 of 19
Maintaining unit sales for the Christmas quarter and declining the next quarter is clearly a disaster. If the post PC age is here it is Androids.
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post #18 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post


You, of all people, talking like this. For shame. The first rule of the IGZO Brotherhood is to maintain stoic discipline in the face of the technical difficulties of pushing out a new transistor substrate and making it into a working display backplane.

What do want Apple to do to advance their all-important holiday schedule? Do you want them to send an occupying army to Japan and take over the Sharp factories and force them to increase their yields?

And what does SF have to do with hardware, especially displays?

 

lol, good one.  Well I am all in with Apple R&D push, part if it is using advanced tech like IGZO. That being said, pushing product refresh at the very end of the year put Apple at risk of having supply chain problems, which hurts the holiday quarter. They should planned new refreshes earlier, so if something goes wrong, they have a few months to address the problems BEFORE the holiday quarter.

 

Moving all refreshes in late fall is something that started under Tim Cook.

post #19 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


We need to have an automatic perma ban on new posters < 1 year who call posters with considerably more history "trolls"

 

have you even read Constapated Odo post history?  All he does is bash Tim Cook and Apple's business strategy. 

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