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Apple loses smartphone market share as Chinese vendors gain in Q3 - Gartner

post #1 of 61
Thread Starter 
Apple's iPhone shipments increased by 23 percent over the same period last year, but the company's share of the worldwide smartphone market still slipped as competition, particularly from China, grew at a faster rate, according to a new industry report.

Gartner Q3 research


More than 30 million iPhones made their way into consumers' hands last quarter, but a massive leap in the overall size of the smartphone market --?some 46 percent, or almost 80 million units -- diluted Apple's share from 14.3 percent a year ago to 12.1 percent today, according to new research from Gartner. Chinese vendor Lenovo was the primary beneficiary of Apple's decline, booking a rocket-like 85 percent market share increase.

Samsung remained the market leader, coming in flat with the same 32.1-percent share it clocked last year.

The figures include just one week of sales for Apple's new flagship iPhone 5s and mid-range iPhone 5c, which debuted at the tail end of the quarter. The handsets' "impact could have been greater" if they had shipped earlier in the reporting period, said Gartner principal research analyst Anshul Gupta.

The Asia-Pacfic region continues to post huge increases in smartphone sales as consumers increasingly abandon feature phones for low-end smartphones.

"Sales of feature phones continued to decline," Gupta said, adding that buyers in developing economies like China and Latin America "rushed to replace their old models with smartphones."

Asia's rise has been a major contributor to the dramatic share increases for local players. China accounted for nearly half of the Android devices sold during the quarter, and nine of the top ten Android vendors in the country are Chinese.
post #2 of 61
It would have been useful to have shown Apple's share of the total mobile phone market as well.

I would assume that the total mobile market is not growing as rapidly as just the smartphone segment and most of this is dumb phone to smartphone transition.
post #3 of 61
Gartner also feels Windows Phone will be the Number 2 smartphone by 2015, and continues to tout its amazing market growth.

I just don't trust their numbers, given that most of their research is polling their paying CTO Members (who for the most part, grew out of the mainframe to windows conversion). Gene Munster has better numbers than that.
post #4 of 61

Okay, tech crunch provides a much better article:

 

Quote:
Overall, there were 455.6 million mobile phones sold in Q3, up 5.7%, and smartphones are very much fuelling growth these days. Devices based on Android, iOS, Window Phone, BlackBerry and so on accounted for 250 million handsets, or 55% of the total. In comparison, last year’s 171 million smartphone sales in Q3 worked out to a share of just under 40% of the total.

 

http://techcrunch.com/2013/11/14/gartner-456m-phones-sold-in-q3-55-smartphone-android-at-82-share-samsung-a-flat-leader/

 

So really, while Apple lost smartphone share it gained overall market share in the total mobile market:

 

 

Apple moved from 5.7% of the total market to 6.7% of the total market.  The best 6.7% of the market to boot in terms of profitability.

post #5 of 61

Damn.

 

I'm going to invest in Others Inc.  They are killing the smartphone and tablet markets.

 

I wonder what the total install base of smartphones are?

Meaning there are 3-5 year old iPhones that are still in use while most Android phones are toast after 2 years or less.  I'll gander the install base is closer to 25-30%

post #6 of 61
Shocker: one company's market share can't grow as fast as 10+ companies combined.
post #7 of 61

I'm waiting for DED to spin this story a little :lol:

post #8 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

Meaning there are 3-5 year old iPhones that are still in use while most Android phones are toast after 2 years or less.  I'll gander the install base is closer to 25-30%

 

 

I suspect two reasons why all of those old iPhones are still in use while Android devices are (in your words) toast after 2 years or less.

 

1. iPhones are expensive and people cannot afford to replace them as often. Android devices are relatively cheap and therefore easier to replace. 

 

2. iPhone users in general are not the most technically literate folks. They don't care about processor speed, megapixels, etc and therefore have little incentive to upgrade. 

 

I think the fact of the matter is that, just like PCs, electronics are commoditized and Android devices typically reflect this. An iPhone is often seen as a "status symbol" and that is often while older and relatively obsolete devices are still worth money.

post #9 of 61
Not sure why AI obsesses over "share," as if the smartphone market was a zero-sum game. It's not. The iPhone market continues to grow. AI writers file endless articles over every percentage point gained or lost like they were calling plays at a football game.

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post #10 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrustyMcLovin View Post


I suspect two reasons why all of those old iPhones are still in use while Android devices are (in your words) toast after 2 years or less.

1. iPhones are expensive and people cannot afford to replace them as often. Android devices are relatively cheap and therefore easier to replace. 

2. iPhone users in general are not the most technically literate folks. They don't care about processor speed, megapixels, etc and therefore have little incentive to upgrade. 

I think the fact of the matter is that, just like PCs, electronics are commoditized and Android devices typically reflect this. An iPhone is often seen as a "status symbol" and that is often while older and relatively obsolete devices are still worth money.

Perhaps you forget that Apple supports 2-3 y.o. phones with OS updates so they won't become obsolete whereas with Android , you'd be lucky to get an update.
post #11 of 61

No, the Apple products just plain continue to work. I am a developer and we have users still using their iPad 1 just fine.  This isn't just a game or some stupid app, but one used in live performance/mission critical applications.  There's no reason to upgrade if it just plain works (and that sucker is built like a tank).  Apple releases regular iOS updates that 95% of devices can install which means they can continue to use the same apps.  In the meantime, most of Android devices run some old version of the OS and can't be targeted by modern apps.  It's just cheaper to throw them away and get something new, but these analysts keep retaining those as "marketshare" even though they are probably not used.

 

Take a look at user engagement on iOS versus Android. You'll see that in nearly every metric, people use their iOS devices MORE than Android. Why? Because Android is for people that just need a phone and watch Netflix.

 

Please do not say "most Apple users are not technologically inclined".  We are very technically inclined folks. Let's see, videographers, photographers, musicians, programmers, researchers, etc. Android is mostly used by:

 

a) People that don't have money for an iPhone.

b) People that don't really use a phone but to make calls.

c) The dust bunnies in my computer junk drawer.

 

From my experience as an app developer, Android users are either a) not technically inclined at all and don't use there device or b) neck beards salivating over how fast their Android phone is and that they just rooted and over clocked the processor. Little do they know it looks fast because the OEMs trick their precious benchmark tests to make them feel more manly.

post #12 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

It would have been useful to have shown Apple's share of the total mobile phone market as well.

I would assume that the total mobile market is not growing as rapidly as just the smartphone segment and most of this is dumb phone to smartphone transition.

The comScore mobiLens US data is available online, up to September of this year.  According to them the total US mobile phone market has been almost constant for the past few years, and the iPhone share of all cell phones (not just smartphones) in use in the US, as of September, is 25.1%.  That's up from 17.5% a year ago, and 10.2% two years ago.  Since almost all cell phones in the US will be smartphones very soon, this business of comparing growth to the "smartphone" market (rather than just the mobile market) will have to end soon, which will be very good for Apple.


Edited by NormM - 11/14/13 at 9:26am
post #13 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by jkichline View Post
Android is mostly used by:

 

a) People that don't have money for an iPhone.

b) People that don't really use a phone but to make calls.

You are right! But you know what the problem is? Those "people" are probably 90% of the Earth population!

post #14 of 61

It is completely wrong to say Apple loses to competition.  Can you say Toyota is BMW competition?

post #15 of 61
I like how Apple's shipment increased by almost 25% YoY (a huge increase, seeing as how many they already sell) yet the headline of course is "loses marketshare" something that is alot less relevant than the increase.
post #16 of 61
As we all know, the analysis has defined Apple market as all people buying a cell phone. If you ask Apple who their market is, they have a completely different view of this. The analysis are attempting to cut the data in various ways to tell a story. Even they can not cut it how Apple defines its market.

I think most people would agree Apple is not trying to sell a phone to every person looking to buy a phone. They are only interested in the people with the willingness to part with their money and pay Apple's price as well continue to part with money to buy all the extra's like apps, music, videos, computers to go along with their iOS devices and the list goes on. Apple could care less about people who are only looking to see how cheap they can get something.

There is no way for analysis to figure out if Apple got 100% of those with money spending it on Apple products. It is just easier to say Apples market it everyone buying a phone.

The Stat I would like to see is how many Apple products are still being used 2 and 3 yrs later verses the competition. I suspect that most of the Android sales are replacing a phone which does not work anymore, so it been recycled and removed from the market. Imagine how many cars would be sold every year if they were crushed and recycle ever year verses being handed down or resold. I believe most of Samsung's business is going to the same people replacing a Samsung phone which is no longer usable.

There is whole industries which survive on the mere fact of obsolescence. M$ and Intel did for almost 15 yrs, the Auto industry in the US tried in in the 60's and 70" until Toyota came along and changed the game. We again have cars which last easily 10 yrs and do not fall apart as we drive down the road. Google and the Android partner have adopted this obsolescence business model as a way to keep generating sales.
Edited by Maestro64 - 11/14/13 at 9:23am
post #17 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

Damn.

 

I'm going to invest in Others Inc.  They are killing the smartphone and tablet markets.

:lol:

post #18 of 61

At this rate Apple will have 0% market share in 6 years!

 

Of course, at this rate smartphone sales will hit 2.4 billion/year in 6 years, but let's not let the obvious pitfalls of putting down a single stable and mature product in an unsustainably booming industry interrupt the headlines.

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post #19 of 61

Well, it’s all over except for the crying.

post #20 of 61
Apple can discount iPhone 5s for $99 without contract . And use its cash reserve to subsidy . Then bye bye Lenovo ..
post #21 of 61

Oh I agree. There's money to be made just in share volumes... but as we've seen from a profit standpoint it always makes sense to go for the more lucrative market first and make something awesome that lasts. I believe that's in Apple's DNA and they will probably continue to reduce cost for markets as they see fit.  I don't think Apple is worried about losing marketshare. Most of these users start with Android, realize it's crap and upgrade. Apple will continue to make that affordable for them with the "C" line of phones, but they will not diminish their brand by getting into the price wars.

post #22 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post
 

At this rate Apple will have 0% market share in 6 years!

 

I’m surprised some analyst isn’t actually predicting that.

post #23 of 61
Apple needs to come out with some slogan like, "Yes, we're constantly losing market share, but we're proud of it it." It might help investors to think that Apple isn't just some ordinary market share-losing company. Currently, investors look at Apple and say to themselves why should they invest money into a company that every quarter seems to be closer to the brink of doom. They think, "Hey, Apple isn't selling iPhones because everyone on the planet is buying Android smartphones and that's not good for business." Time for an image change. All I know is Android is a huge thorn in Apple's core business. Meanwhile, Google has become the tech darling of Wall Street and Apple has become a well-worn sock full of holes ready to be tossed into the trash.

Whatever Apple's gains are, they're being completely overshadowed by Android numbers and that's all anyone notices. The Apple bulls can look at it anyway they want but I'd like to ask where the supposed trillion dollar market cap company has gone to besides fallen into an Android black hole. The Apple bulls keep saying about how market share doesn't mean a darn thing, but as long as Wall Street says it does, Apple shareholders are going to continue to get totally bent. Apple sells 40 million iPhones and Samsung will sell 120 million smartphones and it doesn't matter if 100 million of those aren't Galaxy S-class smartphones. Apple still comes out looking as the big smartphone industry loser because Apple isn't getting but a tiny, tiny percentage of global smartphone growth.

This isn't a rant and I'm not complaining. I'm just saying it as I see it. I want Apple to go after Google's core search engine business but Apple doesn't seem interested in doing that so Apple will have to continue taking its lumps from Google's Android and there's not a thing they can do about it.
post #24 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

As we all know, the analysis has defined Apple market as all people buying a cell phone. If you ask Apple who their market is, they have a completely different view of this. The analysis are attempting to cut the data in various ways to tell a story. Even they can not cut it how Apple defines its market.

I think most people would agree Apple is not trying to sell a phone to every person looking to buy a phone. They are only interested in the people with the willingness to part with their money and pay Apple's price as well continue to part with money to buy all the extra's like apps, music, videos, computers to go along with their iOS devices and the list goes on. Apple could care less about people who are only looking to see how cheap they can get something.

There is no way for analysis to figure out if Apple got 100% of those with money spending it on Apple products. It is just easier to say Apples market it everyone buying a phone.

The Stat I would like to see is how many Apple products are still be using 2 and 3 yrs later verses the competition. I suspect that most of the Android is replacing a phone which does not work anymore, so it been recycled and removed from the market. Imagine how many cars would be sold every year if they were crushed and recycle ever year verse being handed down or resold. I believe most of Samsung's business is going to the same people replacing an Samsung phone which is no longer usable.


Smartphones are supposed to be used with data plans.  This is mostly true with US carriers.  But I suspect this is not true in a lot of countries.  AI readers from other nations please confirm this.  I suspect most of the cheap Android phone buyers are either without a data plan or with a pay as you use data plan.  So a meaningful comparison is between iPhone and other 'smartphone' with data plans.

post #25 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by tzeshan View Post
 


Smartphones are supposed to be used with data plans.  This is mostly true with US carriers.  But I suspect this is not true in a lot of countries.  AI readers from other nations please confirm this.  I suspect most of the cheap Android phone buyers are either without a data plan or with a pay as you use data plan.  So a meaningful comparison is between iPhone and other 'smartphone' with data plans.


As an example most US carriers charge $30/month for a 3GB data plan.  But a lot of users use only several hundred MBs per month.  They are overpaying.  If there is a pay as you use data plan, they could simply pay the full price of iPhone first and save a lot money.

post #26 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

You are right! But you know what the problem is? Those "people" are probably 90% of the Earth population!

I truly doubt people in Somalia are buying Androids.
post #27 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Shocker: one company's market share can't grow as fast as 10+ companies combined.

Wrong.  Samsung could do it and will keep trying.  Apple could, too, if it really wanted to.  Nokia had done it at for a brief time.  Holding that market share growth was a lot harder for Nokia than getting it.  With as much money as Apple has, if they decided to just sell smartphones at every price point, they certainly could manage it.  It's just that with their hard to assemble components and super-high standards, Apple is producing iPhones and tablets at a snail's pace.  The cheaper and simpler you make your products the more you can sell especially if you have a decent product and are willing to undercut all your competition.  It's a poor business model but it would really impress Wall Street for a while until the whole thing collapsed.

 

What's both sad and amusing is that Wall Street knows exactly what Apple's business goals are and what it's business model is geared for but still lumps it in with Android's "One smartphone for every living man, woman and child" business model.  Apple is basically the Porsche business model lumped in with Kia's and Toyota's business model which is certainly an improper if not unfair comparison.

Anyway, Wall Street expects Apple to outsell 10+ companies combined and that's how Apple is being valued.  It might actually take that much in order to boost Apple's share price considerably.  Apple is already carrying a significant amount of revenue weight on its shoulders.

post #28 of 61
Unlike Apple, Samsung does not report actual sales. Therefore there is no real data for Gartner to work from.

This "analysis" is really Samsung paying Gartner to put out propaganda to make it look like Samsung is more successful than it is.

Just like ALL of the "android is winning" BS you see-- all coming from "analysts" who are paid to put out propaganda for their clients.
post #29 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

You are right! But you know what the problem is? Those "people" are probably 90% of the Earth population!

What would make more sense though is comparing, dare I say it, Apples to Apples ... data discussing Apple's share of all 'smart phones' is as useless as BMW, Jaguar, Bentley or Tesla being compared in tables of total car sales world wide.
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post #30 of 61

Gartner reports that JD Power's confidence ratings are at an all time low, and JD Powers reports that customer sanctification with Gartner has never been worse.  

 

In other news someone looked in the trash dumpster at a factory in China and determine that iPad mini retina display supplies are "constrained".

post #31 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jessi View Post

Unlike Apple, Samsung does not report actual sales. Therefore there is no real data for Gartner to work from.

This "analysis" is really Samsung paying Gartner to put out propaganda to make it look like Samsung is more successful than it is.

Just like ALL of the "android is winning" BS you see-- all coming from "analysts" who are paid to put out propaganda for their clients.

Talking of which, I'd like to see the media world wide carrying the quote from Scamsung's lawer on every front page ... "no disputing we sold Apple's property and owe a 'huge sum of money'"

Especially in the UK where Apple were forced by that Ahole judge to admit in they were the wrong doers and apologize!1oyvey.gif
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post #32 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by tzeshan View Post
 


Smartphones are supposed to be used with data plans.  This is mostly true with US carriers.  But I suspect this is not true in a lot of countries.  AI readers from other nations please confirm this.  I suspect most of the cheap Android phone buyers are either without a data plan or with a pay as you use data plan.  So a meaningful comparison is between iPhone and other 'smartphone' with data plans.

Exactly, Data plans make money for service providers and all the current data says iphone users use more data than the Android counter part. Service provider have a love/hate relationship with Apple, they hate them since Apple makes all the profits on the phone and the extras and Apple maintains direct contact with the customer. They love them since they make lots of money off data plans, and as far as I know other than the ipad, there is not pay as you go with data, it all or nothing for phones in the US. I know in my house and 3 iphones we only use half the data we pay for.


Edited by Maestro64 - 11/14/13 at 11:39am
post #33 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by jkichline View Post
 

 I don't think Apple is worried about losing marketshare. 

Maybe not worried but perhaps concerned. Market share is crucial because it is the driver behind Apple's ecosystem of services and media which keeps iOS relevant.

 

As long as Apple maintains around 50% market share, the ecosystem thrives. I would suggest that market share concerns were the main reason Apple released the 5c. At some point the mobile computing growth curve will start to plateau, so, before that happens Apple needs as many users onboard as possible in order to continue the growth in apps and ecosystem. Once smartphone saturation happens the ecosystem becomes the most important factor and to maintain that, you need a lot of users.

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post #34 of 61
If Android own the smartphone market is Apple's fault. Apple should stop recycling the same phone.

Come on, the iPhone 5S screen is the same exact tiny one from the iPhone 5 (1136 x 640 pixel resolution). ALL new premium smartphones are FULL HD (1920 x 1080) and this is something you can REALLY notice.

Using a tiny non-HD smartphone feels like watching a movie on a non-HD TV.
post #35 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post
 
Especially in the UK where Apple were forced by that Ahole judge to admit in they were the wrong doers and apologize!1oyvey.gif

Saying "Apple were" as if Apple is a plural word sounds dumb and is also wrong as far as I'm concerned. I'm not an English expert and it is not even my native language but I know it is wrong because Apple itself does not ever use that form. I collected the following phrases from Apple's legal section of the website.

 

Quote:

Only Apple and its authorized resellers...

Apple or its products...

Apple’s ownership of its trademark(s)...

Apple does not support the use of its logos...

Apple’s innovation is embodied in its Intellectual Property...

Apple or any of its employees...

Apple Inc. is registered with the United States Copyright Office...

Apple actively and aggressively enforces its intellectual property rights...

Apple works closely with the Business Software Alliance...

Please join Apple in its piracy prevention efforts...

 

Apple aggressively enforces our company’s proprietary rights under the U.S. copyright laws, but we know that poor software asset management often keeps people from complying with the law.

The last example demonstrates how plural and singular can be mixed. As you can see  it is written "our company" and "but we know" making Apple plural, but only because Apple, as a company, can't actually "know" or "think", anything, and the sentence is written as if a person at Apple was speaking for the team, not an outsider. 


Edited by mstone - 11/14/13 at 10:41am

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post #36 of 61
I call foul. This is not an accurate metric of Apple's current success. They are doing extremely well in sales and market share. Contradictory reports will shortly follow this guaranteed.
post #37 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Apple needs to come out with some slogan like, "Yes, we're constantly losing market share, but we're proud of it it." It might help investors to think that Apple isn't just some ordinary market share-losing company. Currently, investors look at Apple and say to themselves why should they invest money into a company that every quarter seems to be closer to the brink of doom. They think, "Hey, Apple isn't selling iPhones because everyone on the planet is buying Android smartphones and that's not good for business." Time for an image change. All I know is Android is a huge thorn in Apple's core business. Meanwhile, Google has become the tech darling of Wall Street and Apple has become a well-worn sock full of holes ready to be tossed into the trash.

Whatever Apple's gains are, they're being completely overshadowed by Android numbers and that's all anyone notices. The Apple bulls can look at it anyway they want but I'd like to ask where the supposed trillion dollar market cap company has gone to besides fallen into an Android black hole. The Apple bulls keep saying about how market share doesn't mean a darn thing, but as long as Wall Street says it does, Apple shareholders are going to continue to get totally bent. Apple sells 40 million iPhones and Samsung will sell 120 million smartphones and it doesn't matter if 100 million of those aren't Galaxy S-class smartphones. Apple still comes out looking as the big smartphone industry loser because Apple isn't getting but a tiny, tiny percentage of global smartphone growth.

This isn't a rant and I'm not complaining. I'm just saying it as I see it. I want Apple to go after Google's core search engine business but Apple doesn't seem interested in doing that so Apple will have to continue taking its lumps from Google's Android and there's not a thing they can do about it.

 

Here goes Constapated Odo with his daily rant about how crappy Apple is run........

 

Jesus Constable don't you know that Apple had 56% of the mobile profits last quarter?  Even though the new phones were sold for only 10 days?  For Oct-Dec Qtr I would not be surprised if Apple captures 65-70% of profits and 65% for Jan-Mar.  I'm sorry I'd rather have 70% of profits instead of 70% of market share.

 

Also realize there is a HUGE difference between Market share for a specific Qtr and install base.  Difference is many Android phones are throw away phones that only last 12 months, while Apple phones last 3-4 years.  My guess is the current install base is probably 25-30% Apple.

post #38 of 61

One more thing.  Used iPhones are still being bought with high premium.  I think most of them are being bought to be shipped to overseas where the user do not have to pay high prices of data plans. 

post #39 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soulbearer View Post

blah
blah
zzz
 
 

 

Blocked for boring.

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post #40 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post
 

Blocked for boring.

 

Yeah, come to think of it, where are Tallest's curt dismissals today?  Seems like there's ample fodder for those all over this thread.

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