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The curious case of IDC, Gartner & Strategy Analytics' PC, phone & tablet data on Apple - Page 3

post #81 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacAir View Post
 

Real Macs start over 900$.

 

That useless pice of crap, the mini, at 600$. I bet it will sell less than the 3000+ $ Mac Pro.

 

"Real Mac" = category made-up to win some forum argument.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #82 of 206
Great article! Thanks.
post #83 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

That's why market share studies are useless when only Apple reports actual numbers. Usage share has less bias if they span a wide variety of sites/apps/etc.

 

Apple growth did stop in a growing market. Unit sales rose a bit in 2013, but profits went down. We can discuss that Apple is a premium brand all day long to try to justify it, but fact is Apple market shares are going down.

 

Apple clearly made a stand with the late 2013 refreshes, it position itself at the high end with high prices. I expect Apple market shares to rise a bit for 6 months because they did release great products, but after that market share will fall again when Apple sales get overwhelm by the high volume of lower prices devices.

post #84 of 206

I love DED's editorials. But alas, his quixotic jabs at the "bad guys" seem rather futile. Will any of those "windmills" ever fall to his "lance"? Unlikely.

 

The wind which drives those windmills and which therefore justifies their existence is the public's penchant to believe what they read, or to at least be influenced by it. If there are indeed sheep, THOSE are the bleating hordes whose irrational aversion to Apple drives them to seek non-Californian fodder.

 

Fair enough. All the more "Designed in California" great Apple products for The Rest of Us, as has always been the case.

 

But don't lose heart, Sir Daniel, keep up the good fight. After all, IDEAS are the bullets which can eventually penetrate the toughest armor.

Daniel Swanson

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Daniel Swanson

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post #85 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by FBaker View Post

I have a Mini and I love it, but I wouldn't pay $600 for a home server.  Those are commodities satisfied by much cheaper hardware.  Macs are well worth paying for when you're using them as Macs - with the full GUI OS X experience.

It depends on what you use it for. You could make a cheaper headless iTunes server running Windows but it can't work for Time Machine backups. You could buy a NAS that supports backing up to Time Machine but I seem to recall there are some limitations with those not found with a Mac. I personally like the ease of it all using a Mac but you don't need a new Mac Mini for this. You could buy a used one for the price of a netbook that can do it just fine since it has to do so little processing. If you connect it to your router via Ethernet you're really in good shape. I use a a really old PPC Mac for my iTunes Server and it's perfectly fine.
post #86 of 206
This article really needed to be written - I kept seeing such prognostications and wondered,
"How in the freakin' WORLD can this be right - none of this appears to be based on anything remotely connected with the real world".

Then it struck me - these reviews and reports are essentially the same thing as the MSNBC / FOXNews misinformation and disinformation that gets spewed forth every day. As has been said, "There are lies, damned lies, and then's there're STATISTICS".

The monied interests - who are the identified clients of these reporting agencies - have big skin in the game - they are are playing on the adage, "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news". If they can promote a PERCEPTION that Apple is on the way out, then they CAN affect the markets. "Perception is reality", as the phrase goes and their mission is to create a negative perception about Apple. What's surprising about that?

Yes - the Apple products cost more than their counterparts - which brings us to yet another platitude, "You get what you pay for". So - OK - complain that Apple sells big despite their high price - but where's the sin in that? With Apple, my impression is that you always get what you expect - plus a little more that you did NOT expect.

Then - consider the source. For instance, John C. Dvorak is a self-proclaimed contrarian who, each day, faces his main challenge, "How do I manage to keep John C. Dvorak appearing to relevant?" Delivering pretzel logic prognostications on the impending doom of Apple is just one of the tools in his utility-belt.

I say show me the lines of people waiting for days in line on New York City, in London and Beijing to be the first on their block to get the new "Samsung 6" and I'll try and pay some more attention to your predictions of the impending doom of Apple.
post #87 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post
 

 

Obviously, I wouldn't expect Wall Street or any business analyst to ignore any part of the market.   But what is absurd is to claim that Apple is failing for not bothering to address a part of the market that consumes many units, but doesn't make much in the way of profit.  And if Apple did do that, Wall Street would probably complain that they're losing focus.    It's the difference between a fine restaurant and McDonald's.   Which business does one want to be in?    From a Wall Street perspective, they'd look at "hamburger shipments" and choose McDonald's.   Anyone who cared about quality would choose the fine restaurant.  

 

We're seeing this right now in the photography market (partially because of Apple actually):    The low-end point-and-shoot market is disappearing even though that's where all the units were.    It's disappearing because smartphones can do just about everything the low end p&s cameras can do, much that they can't (like instant posting to photos sites or Facebook, etc.) and because the best camera to have is the one you have with you and people always have their phones with them.      Through September, shipments of p&s cameras are down 44% this year and actual sales have probably declined even more.   (Not that higher-end cameras aren't doing well either:  DSLRs are down 17% and Mirrorless are down 13%).  A number of camera makers are either getting out of the p&s business completely or are de-emphasizing it.   Do you want to see Apple in that position in a few years?

 

The problem with playing at the low end of the market, aside from the lack of profits there, is that it's too easy for someone else to compete with you, since the resulting product will have fewer features or lesser performance.    I don't care what Apple's market share is - they're very smart for not trying to play in that space.    The only advantage to playing in that market is to build brand loyalty, although I wonder if even that would happen if the resulting low-end product doesn't have differentiation.  

 

Thanks for a super response, and I think your restaurant analogy is a pretty good one.  Apple invented the premium steak burger and people loved it and their steak houses started springing up everywhere.  Competition entered the market and Samsung started building steak houses too.  Many people simply couldn't afford the quality steak burgers so Samsung started building McDonald's quality burgers as well and that business started booming as well.  Apple doesn't do low grade burgers.

 

The current state is premium steak houses are still there and doing well, but more and more of them are not opening up.  The market that can afford them is pretty well saturated.  There might still be some growth left, but it is probably single digit growth if that.  There will still be some fighting in that segment and it should be noted in terms of the analogy Apple steak houses are doing better than Samsung steak houses.  Samsung has basically said, our steak house business is doing well, but we don't expect it to grow any more.  Apple meanwhile still managed and impressive 27% growth.

 

Meanwhile the rest of the world has gotten a taste of Samsung's McD' burgers and loves them.  Lots of growth is expected.  They might only make $1 profit a burger but they are selling tons of them.  So much so that barring a major new development Samsungs profits from selling 'burgers' is likely to surpass Apple's either this year or next.

 

So what?

If you like Apple steak burgers, they aren't going anywhere any time soon and you can continue to enjoy them.  They may even continue to put the hurt on Samsung's steak houses (especially if they offer the 'bigger' portions that many that buy Samsung enjoy).

 

Was Apple right not to enter the lower end market?  The only one that knows that answer is time.  Maybe all the people eating the low end burgers will crave the day they can afford to eat at the steak house.  If Apple can maintain that their steak burgers are a cut above maybe the strategy will work out well.

 

DED is basically saying you can't count the fast burgers in the steak burgers.  If all you want to look at is the steak houses, he's right.

 

If you happen to care about money, then looking at the whole market probably isn't a bad idea.  Much of the world can't afford steak and never will be able to.

 

I prefer a nice juicy steak over a McD burger myself, but show me a steak house chain that has McDonalds' revenue.

post #88 of 206
I have two big questions:

1) Why is John C. Dvorak always so negative about Apple???

2) Why had he such a 'big reputation' on the computer media?

Good Article!
post #89 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by timgriff84 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Something else happened in 2010: iPad, a highly mobile personal computer with a tablet form factor. Shortly after it went on sale, Gartner and IDC stopped counting tablets as Personal Computers. Well not exactly; they stopped counting tablets that didn't run Windows as Personal Computers.


This prevented Apple from distorting their PC market share figures. As the PC market mysteriously flattened out (it failed to grow by more than 2 million units between 2010 and 2012, a pace more than twice as slow as that seen during the recession of 2008), Apple's iPad sales quickly ramped up to 58.3 million per year.

That's because its not a pc, why report on it as if its a pc when its not. very simple reason.

You show me your definition of a pc, i.e. "personal computer" -- and I'll show you mine!

For starters:

Here's a Michael Cioni video from 2012. Michael is a pioneer in using technology for digital "filmmaking". The entire video is a great view!

The definition of what he is about starts at 01:51, through 4:29...

The demo starts at 15:18...

"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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- Michael Lille -
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post #90 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacAir View Post
 

It's hard not to agree with the idea behind the article. In fact, I challenge anyone to do so.

 

My only problem with it, is that the author is again trying to step over the line and start: "trash" this, "junk" that.

It isn't appropriate just like it isn't correct. Samsung has tremendous power on the smartphone platform, mostly in part because Google makes such a fantastic OS that no matter how samsung tries to **** things up, it still is bearable even if the knowledge of the user is limited.

 

Just install Nova and G-apps like: Hangouts, play music, google now, play books, youtube, chrome, gmail and deactivate the Samsung equivalents.

 

Like it or not, samsung is teaching something to Apple, here: There's room for choice and growth on the high end, just make another iPhone line with the big screen. Unfortunately, I have to agree that the medium to low end does not deserve Apple's attention, but they are making a mistake with the "no choice" iPhone, and that's the only reason for less growth than most OEMs.

 

Sorry for this off-topic bit, but I did it to say this:

 

The same is happening to tablets. Only a completely ignorant would call a cheap tablet (like the nexus 7 and similar tablets that are starting to show up) crap. Fortunately, Apple did the right thing and already offers choice. But a bigger iPad should come, too. I know lots of users that would love it, especially since a 12" iPad pro (similar to the Air) would weight the same or less than the iPad 4.

 

Thanks for the article, Daniel.

 

Why are you ignoring $49 tablets and phones?

 

The examples you choose are such a small part of the market, they are irrelevant.

 

You demonstrate well the trap these analysts want people to fall into, hence their "Influencing consumer behavior and buying preferences" claims.

 

Now I wonder if the in dash touchscreen in my car is also counted as one of these mysterious, magically appearing ten million tablets?

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post #91 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

strange little article...

Oh, come on! Is that the best you can do?

post #92 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

Apple growth did stop in a growing market. Unit sales rose a bit in 2013, but profits went down. We can discuss that Apple is a premium brand all day long to try to justify it, but fact is Apple market shares are going down.

Apple clearly made a stand with the late 2013 refreshes, it position itself at the high end with high prices. I expect Apple market shares to rise a bit for 6 months because they did release great products, but after that market share will fall again when Apple sales get overwhelm by the high volume of lower prices devices.

As for unit share, 2012 had the iPad 3 in April. 2013 had no such new product. Market share will decline because one company can't grow as fast as the overall market if including these cheap tabs?

does BMW get lumped into the entire vehicle market? Or do they just talk about them in the luxury/premium market? Ford and GM are selling tons of pickup trucks, BMW should make one too to keep up its growth.
post #93 of 206
I don't know why people are so hung up on market share. Apple seems to sell quite a bit of h/w and retain lots of margins and seems to have their stores packed with people most of the time, especially when there is a product announcement. They seem to always have more demand than production for their new releases of iPads and iPhones, so I don't know if there is much concern over sales at Apple.

And why are there more articles that talk about Android's dominance right after their worst quarter? They do this all of the time. Judging what's going on in the industry based on last quarter is kind of dumb. It's right after the Android platform has released their products, but it's right before Apple's announcements. I would much rather see them do this at the end of the December quarter and let Apple have a least one full quarter worth of sales, knowing it takes about2 quarters for Apple to roll out their products in all of their markets.
post #94 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by bingethinker View Post

That 2% figure was always suspect. It was sales, not installed base. Macs last longer and don't need to be upgraded or replaced as often.

manxman is right about the consumer market being different from professionals. I work in printing. Even when the Mac was supposedly at 2% market share, 90% of the files people sent in for print jobs were Mac files. These days, it's more like 99%. We have one lonely PC that sits in a corner and gathers dust, versus six Macs, each being used 40 hours a week or more.

Sure for graphics, but I bet your RIP, color proofing, plate imager, press software, accounting and web site do not run on Macs. People who live and work in Mac centric environments sometimes forget that most business, manufacturing, banking, medical, government, military, scientific research, education and virtually every other professional field uses primarily Windows.

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post #95 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post
 
does BMW get lumped into the entire vehicle market? Or do they just talk about them in the luxury/premium market? Ford and GM are selling tons of pickup trucks, BMW should make one too to keep up its growth.

All the purists frowned when BMW made the X5 and X6, but I wouldn't mind seeing a BMW pickup. That would be pretty sweet. Mercedes already makes a lot of great trucks. Apple kind of disappointed me with the new Mac Pro because it was sort of a departure from heavy duty industrial strength computing platform. The deminutive new Mac Pro just doesn't look like an industrial beast like the old one.


Edited by mstone - 11/16/13 at 1:28pm

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post #96 of 206

iPhone sales show explosive growth, take over 95% market share*

 

*64bit smartphone market 

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post #97 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post
 

iPhone sales show explosive growth, take over 95% 105% market share*

 

*64bit smartphone market 

That was pretty funny though. good one! LOL

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post #98 of 206
This makes me really want to read 2 side-by-side articles, both with totally accurate statistics for the same time period, painting totally different pictures. And then an explanation of those same statistics 1smile.gif
post #99 of 206
Good stuff! Eloquently echoing that which many of us have perceived for years.
post #100 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


No Amazon devices are included in Google Android activation numbers. NONE.

I doubt IDC or Gartner include them in Android counts either since Amazon's verision is not Google Android but instead a customized and modified fork that's no longer the "Android" OS per-se. Can't remember now what Amazon calls the modded OS.

In any event Google only counts activations when users devices log into Google Play for the first time which eliminates most of those Chinese fork devices. They used to count activations when devices logged into Google services but the way it's done now is much more accurate and telling (and helpful to developers) since those using them as "feature phones" go largely uncounted in activations now.

http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/03/android-activations-tweak/

 

good point.

 

and from that Google site web link we also learn that only 4.9% of those Google Play "activations" were for devices greater than 7" screen size (for two weeks in April of this year). that is, ALL Android tablets! Google itself says so!! 

 

about 200M Android devices were so activated between then and August - 4 months = 50M per month (http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-android-activations-hit-1-billion-2013-9). so only 10M were true "Google Android" tablets at that 5% rate - about 2.5M Android tablets per month. which would total a mediocre 30M per year! compared to Apple's 60M+ per year (actually, much more given that was a slow sales quarter).

 

yet Strategy Analytics reported 34.6 million Android tablet shipments in that same 2nd quarter 2012 time period!! (https://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?a0=5403&mod=pressreleaseviewer). which would be over 11.5 million per month!!!

 

so what/where are those other 9 Million alleged "Android" tablets per month that did not log into Google Play?

 

or are SA's numbers just bullshit they pulled out of their butt?

 

either way, thank you so much for providing the data link that conclusively proves DED's article is valid and right on target. 

 

it's kinda a classic "smoking gun," you know?

 

edit: fixed math


Edited by Alfiejr - 11/16/13 at 2:16pm
post #101 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by bingethinker View Post

That 2% figure was always suspect. It was sales, not installed base. Macs last longer and don't need to be upgraded or replaced as often.


manxman is right about the consumer market being different from professionals. I work in printing. Even when the Mac was supposedly at 2% market share, 90% of the files people sent in for print jobs were Mac files. These days, it's more like 99%. We have one lonely PC that sits in a corner and gathers dust, versus six Macs, each being used 40 hours a week or more.
Sure for graphics, but I bet your RIP, color proofing, plate imager, press software, accounting and web site do not run on Macs. People who live and work in Mac centric environments sometimes forget that most business, manufacturing, banking, medical, government, military, scientific research, education and virtually every other professional field uses primarily Windows.

What you say is true, today -- but it is starting to change. The status-quo Wintel apps are kind of like the "rust belt" of technology.

For example take POST/Checkout/Cash Registers... Today, that job can be done cheaper and more efficiently on an iPad -- and it doesn't require special technical ability (IT) to setup and support.

Within the next 2 years we will see the bulk of customers pay for onsite purchases, say in a supermarket, with your phone, receive an itemized receipt that goes directly into your budget/expense accounting apps. Likely, there will be little need for individual, manned checkout stations -- rather something like the situation where 1 clerk monitors several self-checkout stations, in while manning a [more traditional] checkout station. There will be no need for credit card swiping, cash handling, printed receipts, etc. -- and all the associated unproductive busy-work (like stocking ink/ribbons and paper rolls, then taking the time to load them in the cash requesters).

Even more so in small stores -- where they will be able to run their entire business on iPads.

Same for doctors in hospitals, movie-makers on location and a whole slew of services -- like the carpet or furniture salesman that comes to your house to sell (and write up the sale of) products, options, financing, etc.

Sure, for larger businesses, there will be back-office/back-end/cloud servers/services running Linux or Windows [and some Macs] -- but the action will be in the inexpensive, easy-to-install, easy-to-replace, easy-to-use tablets -- likely iPads!
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
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post #102 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

 
All the purists frowned when BMW made the X5 and X6, but I wouldn't mind seeing a BMW pickup. That would be pretty sweet. Mercedes already makes a lot of great trucks. Apple kind of disappointed me with the new Mac Pro because it was sort of a departure from heavy duty industrial strength computing platform. The deminutive new Mac Pro just doesn't look like an industrial beast like the old one.

How about this:

It's Coming...
Dedicated Mac Pro Hosting and Colocation








http://www.macstadium.com/mac-pro
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
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post #103 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

How about this:

It's Coming...
Dedicated Mac Pro Hosting and Colocation





http://www.macstadium.com/mac-pro

They are really not designed for that. I have an acquaintance who has a cabinet near to ours who does Mac mini hosting and his cabinet is a mess because the mini is not designed to be in a rack. Rack servers need to be on rails and have a rear accessibility so you can access the ports, lift the lid to check out fans, redundant power supplies, dust, connect a keyboard, etc. Besides, rack server installations are rarely about brute power but more about load balancing, dependability and redundancy. And why should anyone pay over a $1000 extra for two powerful video cards that are never going to be used? For my money I would go with the 230VAC IBM or HP blade servers which are very efficient. They are perfect for a datacenter. Using Mac Pros in a rack has never been practical in a datacenter plus OS X server is too non standard to be a very popular UNIX-like platform. Traditionally they have been workstations and probably will continue in that role for the foreseeable future. The reason the Xserve never got any traction was because of the OS, not the hardware, although the hardware was seen as slightly overpriced.


Edited by mstone - 11/16/13 at 3:19pm

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post #104 of 206
Fantastic article as usual Daniel.
post #105 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood View Post
 

 

 

DED is basically saying you can't count the fast burgers in the steak burgers.  If all you want to look at is the steak houses, he's right.

 

If you happen to care about money, then looking at the whole market probably isn't a bad idea.  Much of the world can't afford steak and never will be able to.

 

I prefer a nice juicy steak over a McD burger myself, but show me a steak house chain that has McDonalds' revenue.

The problem in capitalist societies is that we only look at money.   Wall Street has brainwashed us to do that and we've come to accept it as normal - that the only true measure of success is money.  Even the NY Times publishes lists every week of the top 10 this or that.   

 

While occasionally, art and commerce collide, in most cases quite the opposite is true:   if it gets great market acceptance, it's probably a piece of crap.   

 

Justin Beaver sells a lot of records.    It's still crap.     McDonald's sells a lot of burgers.   That's still crap.   WalMart sells a lot of everything.   Crap.

 

Those who think that only business revenue counts would probably be more than willing to turn Central Park into a giant shopping mall or build a bunch more condos for the rich.  After all, the park isn't "maximizing revenue".  

 

I prefer to live in a society where me measure things based upon their critical greatness and quality.    I think Apple strives for this and I think it's where Steve's head was at.    The last thing I would want to see is to have Apple start making crap products just to capture market share.   Does Wall Street really want Apple to be Dell?  It's bad enough Apple sells its products in WalMart, which as I've written before, devalues the brand IMO.

post #106 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

How do you define a PC?

For the purpose of comparing market share of device like the articles about. Screen with separate keyboard and pointing device (mouse, trackpad etc).

 

It's fair enough to say the tablet market is taking sales from the PC market. But putting tablets into the same market is just silly. If you did that why not put games consoles in too? Lots of PC's are sold for gaming, consoles have similar hardware, they have internet browsers, they have apps for tv, can play music etc. Xbox even has skydrive. Or what about smart TV's? They have an OS that you can write apps for, they can browse the web etc. Or what about the old Amstrad email phone? Or this Android based mp3 player http://www.argos.co.uk/static/Product/partNumber/9119734.htm

 

It makes sense to split the markets up into similar devices that can be used in similar ways. An iPad can do a lot of the stuff a PC does, but it is not used in the same way.

post #107 of 206

For someone who sounds like they were involved at a higher level than most you certainly taint that insight and value by your post here.

 

I am not trying to attack you personally, but trying to show that focusing solely on numbers is sometimes not the whole story, or possibly ridiculous depending on timing.

 

So lets look at what you said (only taking the relevant part of your quote).

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by JamesMac View Post
 

I agree with the author that the 'white label' tablets should be singled out, but in the latest 3Q tablet data from IDC, you'll see Samsung growing 123% to 9.7 million units and Lenovo growing 421% to 2.3 million units.  This compares to Apple's growth of 0.6% to 14.1 million units.  Apple will of course do much better in 4Q, but the claims that this is having no substantial impact on Apple is not backed up by the evidence.  The fact that Apple came out with an 8" device responding directly to a (correctly perceived) threat from these very competitors is evidence that even Apple wouldn't agree with the author.

 

 

In essence, here is where you fail.  Apple has been selling iPads since 2010.  At what state in time did all the other manufacturers start selling comparable tablets?  Key word COMPARABLE.  Yes, some were selling what you might call tablets long before 2010, but we need to focus on the copycat format of what is deemed a tablet today.  Or give Apple credit of exploding a market that sucked @S$ before iPads that allowed other companies to even attempt to make the kind of money they can today.

 

So Apple starts from a sale position of 0 units in April 2010.  There are obviously a million ways to look at, gather, analyze, and present data, but here is just one to look at.  This is the total sales of all iPads since the first release broken down by year.

 

2010 - 7.5 Million

2011 - 32.4 Million

2012 - 58.3 Million

2013 - ~70 Million

 

That totals ~170 million units.  In just over 3 years.  Sales may have "slowed", but that is perspective.  They are still selling more each year than previous.  Like everyone else mostly.

 

Lets compare that to each individual company as I hate using the "Android as a whole" when you need to look at profits and share versus an actual competing manufacturer, not an idea.

 

As already established that becomes difficult to impossible due to reporting methods.  For sake of argument though Samsung announced doubling its sales this year from last year.  That is guestimated at this.

 

2011 - ~192,000

2012 - ~20 million  (ironically IDC guessed 16.8 million)

2013 - ~40 million

 

That totals ~62 million in roughly the same time span.

 

So analysts and people like you start quoting shit numbers like quarter over quarter or year over year growth and how the competition is 123% or 400% or 50,000% versus Apple's 0.6% growth.  This is such rubbish and exactly what DED has been trying to dispel with his articles.

 

Go back and look at Apple's growth from 2010 to 2011.  What percentage growth was that?  That is an astonishing number isn't it?

 

So come back 2 years from now and restate your position please.  I would gladly eat a bucket of crow if you did and it actually still showed Samsung, Asus, Lenovo, etc. as continually having 125%, 400% (or whatever) plus YoY or QoQ growth numbers.  That, for example would put Lenovo selling just under 10 million tablets next year and 40 million the following.  Not likely.  Not with the multitude of competitors.  And if Apple starts actually dropping in unit sales by year it will still take years to catch up to what Apple has already sold.  That is if Apple stops selling them today and makes no more ever.  

 

The point is that other companies growth looks massive in comparison right now only due to the time in the game.  Apple has been selling this market segment longer as I outlined above as to what is a "tablet".

 

Some of these companies may never reach 170 million total tablet sales ever, but we shall have to wait and see who stays in the market and who folds their tablet divisions.

 

So, again, I would love to see the same headlines in a couple years, or even quarters, applied to Apple's competition screaming "SAMSUNG TABLETS SHIPMENTS DECLINING HORRIBLY"  or "LENOVO TABLET GROWTH PLUMMETING".  That is what DED's pieces are constantly targeted towards.  The fact that mainstream media does not apply the same standards they do to Apple.  They hide in the lump sum game of total market share of platform (Android) or some other stupid nonsense.

 

(Proof in point - HP tablets - ever heard of them?  Well in 2011 they held 17% of the non-iPad tablet numbers.  1% more than Samsung's 16%)  That was huge growth for them back then and reported as such.  I don't recall seeing anywhere near the same doom and gloom headlines Apple continues to get from wall street and analysts when HP totally bowed out. Even though Apple is destroying the profits tables and nowhere close to actually losing money.)


Edited by lookforandrew - 11/16/13 at 3:55pm
post #108 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacAir View Post
 

Real Macs start over 900$.

 

That useless pice of crap, the mini, at 600$. I bet it will sell less than the 3000+ $ Mac Pro.

The mini is a great computer and is basically a headless iMac.  The new ones are very speedy and very nice to use.  You can get a quad core i7 in a mini the same the run in the iMac.

Apple does not build a "crap" computer.

post #109 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by akqies View Post


Or even no decent monitor. A VNC app on your iPad/iPhone and/or portable Mac can let you have a great but inexpensive Mac at home as an iTunes Server for your Apple TV or Roku box as well as for Time Machine backups (if you have multiple Mac notebooks).

Yep one of my two Mini's is just that a headless media server for my apple tv's and works great with a thunderbolt sata hub with two channels fed into two external 4 terabyte drives software raided in the mini as one drive.  Put a 6gb sata data flash drive in a mini and they scream.  When I want to interact with the mini the hdmi to my tv works great.  You can also put an extra drive inside as well if you need more space. I also VNC with my iPhone and iPad with great apps off the iTunes AppStore for those as well.

post #110 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


No Amazon devices are included in Google Android activation numbers. NONE.

I doubt IDC or Gartner include them in Android counts either since Amazon's verision is not Google Android but instead a customized and modified fork that's no longer the "Android" OS per-se. Can't remember now what Amazon calls the modded OS.

In any event Google only counts activations when users devices log into Google Play for the first time which eliminates most of those Chinese fork devices. They used to count activations when devices logged into Google services but the way it's done now is much more accurate and telling (and helpful to developers) since those using them as "feature phones" go largely uncounted in activations now.

http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/03/android-activations-tweak/

While I agree with you on the way google counts the numbers the analysts don't count them that way.  They include the "white box" numbers as android.  Those should not be counted but you don't see google complaining if they are.  It gives the illusion that there part of mainstream android too. Which there not.  Like most here have said, these analyst firms will customize the data that makes your company look good for a "fee".  They get paid to make there customers look good even if they have to make up numbers to do so.  There information is very very sketchy at best and in most cases inaccurate.

post #111 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by FBaker View Post

Tablets are hot, but laptops and even desktops don't seem to be going away soon.  Most of us who enjoy our iPads still use our Macs too.

Not going away soon does not mean they aren't being displaced, demoted and dislodges as the primary computing devices for consumers. As Steve Jobs said "PCs" will be the trucks of the computing world.
post #112 of 206

Wrong again. Everything but the accounting software runs on Macs.

 

People who work on Windows sometimes have absolutely no knowledge of Macs, but are willing to parrot lame anti-Apple propaganda online.

post #113 of 206

It's simple : the only kind of market share data that matters to consumers is ecosystem usage.

 

And for those who don't care about the ecosystem, any kind of market share data should be irrelevant anyway.

post #114 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by bingethinker View Post

Wrong again. Everything but the accounting software runs on Macs.

People who work on Windows sometimes have absolutely no knowledge of Macs, but are willing to parrot lame anti-Apple propaganda online.

To whom are you responding?


PS: There are no apps for the Mac. /s
post #115 of 206
Great work, thanks. Glad that Fortune's PED has sent the link.

My take-aways:

1) Market Research companies have dozens of Non-Apple customers that want to feel good about competing against such a powerful value-proposition, iOS. Hence the Market Researchers feed the beast.

2) Platforms: The market share numbers for Apple vs. Android would look much better for Apple if the Android market share was shown as it really is: fragmented. Further many white box products are not platforms in the sense of having a vibrant open 3rd party software and content ecosystem.

3) Even in the old PC/Mac domain, the Mac, is worth about $60B. Not quite 'dead'.
post #116 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post
 

Sure for graphics, but I bet your RIP, color proofing, plate imager, press software, accounting and web site do not run on Macs. People who live and work in Mac centric environments sometimes forget that most business, manufacturing, banking, medical, government, military, scientific research, education and virtually every other professional field uses primarily Windows.


Let's see if I can put this post in the right place this time!

 

Everything  but the accounting software runs on Macs. As usual, the anti-Mac guy is parroting lame propaganda from 1997.

post #117 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by akqies View Post


To whom are you responding?


PS: There are no apps for the Mac. /s


Your ignorance is strangely amusing.

post #118 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by bingethinker View Post


Your ignorance is strangely amusing.

Yes, I'm quite ignorant to whom you are responding to since you neither mentioned nor quoted anyone in your comment.
post #119 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by timgriff84 View Post
 

For the purpose of comparing market share of device like the articles about. Screen with separate keyboard and pointing device (mouse, trackpad etc).

 

It's fair enough to say the tablet market is taking sales from the PC market. But putting tablets into the same market is just silly. If you did that why not put games consoles in too? Lots of PC's are sold for gaming, consoles have similar hardware, they have internet browsers, they have apps for tv, can play music etc. Xbox even has skydrive. Or what about smart TV's? They have an OS that you can write apps for, they can browse the web etc. Or what about the old Amstrad email phone? Or this Android based mp3 player http://www.argos.co.uk/static/Product/partNumber/9119734.htm

 

It makes sense to split the markets up into similar devices that can be used in similar ways. An iPad can do a lot of the stuff a PC does, but it is not used in the same way.

 

If game consoles were rapidly replacing PCs among PC gamers, it would be useful for anyone involved in the gaming industry to look at the market for (consoles and PC sales) when making decisions about platforms. Microsoft was gravely concerned about the original PlayStation eating up PC sales, for example, which launched the Xbox effort. 

 

In general terms however, game consoles aren’t usually described as being significant to PC sales. They’re only used for games. Nobody really browses the web on a PS3, and console media consumption probably has impact on home stereo gear or Smart TVs than PCs.

 

You can’t say that about iPad, which has replaced the conventional PC for millions of people, and served as a direct replacement for client PCs in a variety of business and education settings. It used to be that the general concept of a PC was a box with components. But iPad delivered a form factor at a cost where it became a very popular device. 

 

Microsoft spent years trying to challenge Apple’s device with transformer notebooks, netbooks and thick x86 slates. Surface is close to iPad, but is trying to be more like an iPad/netbook hybrid, at a higher price point. It’s not working at all. Google entered tablets with Honeycomb slates with 16:9 screens and a 3D interface that layered on "Droid" complexity and brought back lots of old PC cruft via Android. Flopped miserably. It’s now trending closer to iPad-like devices, but still isn’t making any headway. 

 

Its not useful to call everything a PC, but iPads are clearly being used for tasks conventional PCs were previously bought for. That makes your arbitrary distinction of PC = "separate keyboard and pointing device" incorrect, or more precisely: not useful. PC makers have sold Tablet PCs without keyboards, just not in significant quantity.

 

And of course, DOS PCs lacked pointers from 1981 to 1995, 14 years. Nearly as long as Windows PCs have been around. 

post #120 of 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by bingethinker View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by akqies View Post

To whom are you responding?



PS: There are no apps for the Mac. /s


Your ignorance is strangely amusing.

You missed the sarcasm tag. I think you will find that you and akqies are on the same side of this argument.
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