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Weaker than expected iPhone 5c sales may trigger China Mobile renegotiation

post #1 of 60
Thread Starter 
Sales of Apple's less-expensive iPhone 5c may be holding up an anticipated China Mobile deal, says KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, but negotiations are likely nearing an end point.

Kuo


According to a research note obtained by AppleInsider, Kuo believes the much-rumored China Mobile partnership will generate 15 to 20 million iPhone unit shipments in 2014, which will jump to 20 to 30 million the year following. The analyst notes, however, that the actual numbers depend on Apple's strategy in midrange and low-end products.

"We believe that weak sales of iPhone 5C may trigger a re-negotiation of the Apple-China Mobile partnership," Kuo writes. "However, the indications are that the deal is nearing an end. While recent market speculation calls for the deal to boost 1Q14 iPhone shipments to 45-50mn units, we think this is overly optimistic."

As such, Kuo maintains his first quarter forecast of 38 million units worldwide.

The analyst's latest surveys indicate that demand for a TD-LTE version of the iPhone 5c, which is compatible with China Mobile's unique 4G network infrastructure, has declined "dramatically" over the past weeks. Subscribers are now focused on the more expensive iPhone 5s, Kuo says.

Due to the swing in demand, Kuo pegs TD-LTE iPhone 5c shipments at 1.0 to 1.5 million units in the fourth quarter of 2013 and under one million for the first quarter of 2014. This is apparently well below Apple's original production plan and would possibly require a renegotiation with the world's largest wireless provider.

The brokering may be what is holding up an Apple-China Mobile partnership many see as a foregone conclusion. For its part, the telecom acknowledged it is in talks with Apple over the iPhone, but has repeatedly denied rumors of an imminent finalization.
post #2 of 60
Uh-huh. Sure. Right. Yep.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #3 of 60
I predict that weakening demand for horse sh... manure is triggering a renegotiation of anyone giving two flips about what these analysts have to say.
post #4 of 60
More mindless BS speculation from "analysts" that the rumor sites slap on their front page. 1rolleyes.gif
post #5 of 60
I wonder consider Kuo a BS'ing analyst.
post #6 of 60
Amazing. These analysts were foolishly wrong about the 5C, which is a more obvious success every day.

But instead of embracing the obvious they double down on the ridiculous.

To analysts:

5C selling well around the world! Way better than the 4S it replaced!
post #7 of 60
I give credit to this guy for predicting products as to sales I doubt he knows what is going on.

From my view this prolonged negotiation is more of a psychological tactic to get Apple to cave in to whatever demands they are making.
post #8 of 60
In China, 5C is never a success and I'm glad to see it wasn't.


For one reason, it is not that C (cheap) at all. Even if it was, there is no way to compete with China brands' Andriod phone. At a price tag of US$150-200, they can be technically / in specification as compatible as a Samsung S4.

Going cheap does not work in gaining China market share but the opposite case does....
post #9 of 60
He thinks sales are weaker but sticking to his forecast. Isn't that an oxymoron in effect lol.

Then the story talks about selling more 5s models - why wouldn't that be the headline.

After being burnt already about speculating on the 5c you would of thought the rumour mill would hold judgement. Perhaps a risky move to attempt credibility.
post #10 of 60
You just have to laugh when the numbers for the wild guesses
are all so specific, like "36,146" for the first entry. If you're
taking wild guesses like this, why not just call it 36,000?
post #11 of 60
If being the #2 phone in the US is "weak", what does it say about the non-iPhones.
post #12 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter524 View Post

In China, 5C is never a success and I'm glad to see it wasn't.

Source?
post #13 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

If being the #2 phone in the US is "weak", what does it say about the non-iPhones.

"Shipped" 1smile.gif

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #14 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by robertsm View Post

I wonder consider Kuo a BS'ing analyst.

You just made AppleInsider cry.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #15 of 60
All this talk about China Mobile renegotiating plans is just BS speculation on Kuo's part. There has never been any proof that there is a delay because there was never an official announcement when any contract with China Mobile would take place. You can't call something a delay if it's based on a rumor. For all we know, Apple never intended to sign a contract with China Mobile in 2013. This could be due to Apple not having enough iPhone inventory to supply China Mobile as required. DoCoMo in Japan had that problem when they couldn't get enough iPhones and they were seriously pissed off. What would be the point of making an announcement if there are almost no iPhones to sell to consumers?

It's a shame that Apple can't do anything about this sort of rampant speculation. Apple has far too many analysts following the company and I think they're doing it just to make names for themselves.
post #16 of 60
Does anyone know if the 5C is outselling the 4S when it was second position in the line up last year? If so, it would have to be a success. These analysts are just pissed Apple isn't following the strategy they think it should (move downmarket).
It's the heat death of the universe, my friends.
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It's the heat death of the universe, my friends.
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post #17 of 60
The 5c may well turn out to have the biggest profit margin in Apple history.
The launch of its competitor the Motorola G built using a theoretically more expensive quad core and next gen FAB process really shows what underlying profit may be lurking.

I'm sure China Mobile will accept a bit of profit for itself here.
post #18 of 60
Today is Friday, December 21 which just so happens to be a "Triple Witching" day. What is a Triple Witching day you ask -- it is a day when the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options all expire on the same day. They happen four times a year.

Get the feeling someone might might like to see Apple to be down today?
post #19 of 60
"Get the feeling someone might might like to see Apple to be down today?"

I have no doubt someone wants Apple's stock to be down today!
post #20 of 60
Way back in August the rumors for a China Mobile deal pegged November as the deal announcement timeframe. When that timeframe passed the timeframe was moved to December.

On December 2nd, The Wall Street Journal announced a deal had been signed between China Mobile and Apple.

On December 3rd Bloomberg and CNN negated the WSJ announcement.

I do not remember when December 18th became the announcement date.

Along the way from the 2nd to 21st China Mobile has repeatedly stated no deal had been signed.

Instead of stopping with the irrational speculation of a deal bring signed, Wall Street has chosen to double down with wild guesses and of course dropping Apple's stock price.
post #21 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by SamsungRulz View Post

Well that's what you get for releasing crappy plastics fone!

Still outsells any Samsung phone in any part of the world.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SamsungRulz View Post

5C selling well?  That cause all Apple fans are stupid!

Samsung Rulz!

It's the 2nd highest selling mobile phone behind the 5S.
Call us stupid! Coming from the keyboard warrior who comes to an Apple fan site to try and state his case like a 5 year old. We can also spell the word "rules".
Quote:
Originally Posted by SamsungRulz View Post

Buy Samsung Note 3.  Big screen and stilus make crappy Apple fone look like toy

Quite the opposite, with a big screen and a pen, the Note 3 looks like a Magna doodle.
Also remember that Samsung copied the original iPhone for many years in both look and size so in your mind, they must have been toys too. Samsung couldn't compete where it counts so went back to the 90's with the stylus and singled out the gibbering retards who think that bigger must be better. We prefer a stylish looking, powerful phone that fits in our pocket, that we can use with our finger and one that looks sensible when we hold it up to our faces.

We don't want to have clown pockets in our pants and a oversized device pulling our pants down to our thighs. If you want to be that idiot, feel free. We are happy having an iPhone and an iPad instead of 1 device that tries to be both and fails badly.
post #22 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by leavingthebigG View Post

"Get the feeling someone might might like to see Apple to be down today?"

I have no doubt someone wants Apple's stock to be down today!
Yet Blackberry posts a $4B loss and the stock is up 3% pre market. 1rolleyes.gif
post #23 of 60
Speculation vs facts: Fkisu's iOS penetration tracker has been monitoring iOS product's penetration since initial rollout. http://www.fiksu.com/iOS-7-iPhone-5s-5c-Usage-Tracker

In the category of iPhone, Fkisu reports that after 90 days of 5C and 5S rollout, 9.70% of all iPhone users their SDK tools track are on the 5S. The iPhone 5C is reported as having a 3.61% share. These facts suggests a ratio of 5S to 5C of 2.6:1, which is better that the 3:1 or 4:1 that some pundits are suggesting.

Note: "Data sampled hourly in batches of approximately 10M events from apps using the Fiksu SDK. These events include app launches, in-app purchases, and registrations, and are filtered to count unique devices. "
post #24 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeoTheta View Post

Today is Friday, December 21 which just so happens to be a "Triple Witching" day. What is a Triple Witching day you ask -- it is a day when the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options all expire on the same day. They happen four times a year.

Get the feeling someone might might like to see Apple to be down today?

 

Some one wants Apple stock to be down EVERYDAY.  Its called options manipulation.  If you invest in Apple you need to have steel balls and be willing to wait it out.  Its a very volitile stock and may take MONTHS to correct.

post #25 of 60
Originally Posted by Peter524 View Post
In China, 5C is never a success and I'm glad to see it wasn't.

 

Thanks for all the proof.

 
For one reason, it is not that C (cheap) at all.

 

Except that isn’t what the C is for.

 
Even if it was, there is no way to compete with China brands' Andriod phone.

 

Again, all this proof you keep piling on really does wonders for your position.

Originally Posted by asdasd

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Originally Posted by asdasd

This is Appleinsider. It's all there for you but we can't do it for you.
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post #26 of 60

"You just have to laugh when the numbers for the wild guesses
are all so specific, like "36,146" for the first entry. If you're
taking wild guesses like this, why not just call it 36,000?"

 

 

 

http://trialconsult.com/litigare-blog/2013/7/8/whatever-you-do-avoid-round-numbers-how-the-psychology-of-exact-numbers-work-for-settlement-and-trial

 

Keep this anchoring effect in mind next time you sell your home.  Those who set a very specific selling price get closer to that price than those who set a round number.  


Edited by RadarTheKat - 12/20/13 at 6:06am
post #27 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Evilution View Post

Still outsells any Samsung phone in any part of the world.
It's the 2nd highest selling mobile phone behind the 5S.

 

Didn't the Cannacord numbers say that the 5c is the #3 selling phone in the US on the 4 largest carriers in November... behind Samsung's S4?

na na na na na...
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na na na na na...
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post #28 of 60

This is BS article.

 

Kuo should have said STRONGER than expected 5S sales trigger CHL reneogiation.

 

So obvious they are trying to spin it as a negative

post #29 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

 

Some one wants Apple stock to be down EVERYDAY.  Its called options manipulation.  If you invest in Apple you need to have steel balls and be willing to wait it out.  Its a very volitile stock and may take MONTHS to correct.

 

Very true. There is some incredibly weird market psychology in play when you're talking about the stock with the most attention in the world. But markets eventually arrive at a fair price. 

post #30 of 60
The headline could just as well say:

Stronger than expected iPhone 5s sales may trigger China Mobile renegotiation
post #31 of 60

Or it may not; given it's yet to be offered on CM?

 

How do "weak" sales for an item NOT YET SOLD on the service lead to renegotiations?

post #32 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by leavingthebigG View Post

Way back in August the rumors for a China Mobile deal pegged November as the deal announcement timeframe. When that timeframe passed the timeframe was moved to December.

On December 2nd, The Wall Street Journal announced a deal had been signed between China Mobile and Apple.

On December 3rd Bloomberg and CNN negated the WSJ announcement.

I do not remember when December 18th became the announcement date.

Along the way from the 2nd to 21st China Mobile has repeatedly stated no deal had been signed.

Instead of stopping with the irrational speculation of a deal bring signed, Wall Street has chosen to double down with wild guesses and of course dropping Apple's stock price.

The 18th was the date CM had their introduction of their LTE network. An OBTW moment might have been included but CM may simply have a different style and want to spread things out.

post #33 of 60
I just bought a 5c for my daughter as a Christmas present. I like it a lot and I think it's a great phone. I wouldn't buy one for myself because the colors are too pastel. They really needed to have more masculine colors in the mix; at least a black one.
post #34 of 60
I miss the deleted SamsungRulz posts already! That was some awesome 3rd-grade trolling.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply
post #35 of 60

Tim Cook has to be considered the most boring dude ever.  He has single-handedly made AAPL the most boring company in Silicon Valley.  Despite all their great products, gone are the days of "edgy" ads and innovation.  Moving forward, AAPL clearly illustrates in their holiday ad, that if you invest in this company, you will end up like the grandma wiping her tears.  Better to invest in Exxon at this point.  The 5s is awesome, but the failure to roll out the China Mobile deal asap and in step with the 5s is just another missed opportunity by Cook and Co. These guys are showing their age, despite their operational expertise.  I have refused to believe that AAPL is finished innovating, but let's face it, SJ is gone and Cook is merely a candle flame compared to SJ's ability to create a firestorm.  Look at AAPL's executive page and it's like looking at the Mona Lisa...Get some fresh management and enthusiasm in there Cook, your present leadership is well represented by your holiday commercial...Boring.

post #36 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

I miss the deleted SamsungRulz posts already! That was some awesome 3rd-grade trolling.

 

Yeah, Rulz made me wonder if there's really such a thing as "secret shoppers" for evaluating the mods' response times...

Quality isn't expensive... it's priceless.

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Quality isn't expensive... it's priceless.

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post #37 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Source?

 

None whatsoever. LOL!

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #38 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by cajun View Post

I just bought a 5c for my daughter as a Christmas present. I like it a lot and I think it's a great phone. I wouldn't buy one for myself because the colors are too pastel. They really needed to have more masculine colors in the mix; at least a black one.

I figure the colors were another way to distance the two offerings, the 5c from the 5s.

post #39 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post

I figure the colors were another way to distance the two offerings, the 5c from the 5s.

Sounds like offering a glossy gold plastic iPhone 5c is the way to go, at least for 2014.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply
post #40 of 60

What is the actual evidence, if any, for a deal between Apple and China Mobile?

 

My guess is that Apple isn't budging from it's usual demands and China Mobile isn't having a bar of it and there is no deal happening.

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